Group 1 - The U.S. has imposed significant sanctions on Russian oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil, targeting their assets in response to Russia's ongoing military actions in Ukraine [1][3][5] - The sanctions include freezing all U.S. assets of these companies and extending to their subsidiaries, with potential secondary sanctions on foreign banks that engage with them [3][5] - The sanctions are expected to impact Russia's energy exports significantly, as Rosneft and Lukoil account for nearly half of Russia's oil exports [5][15] Group 2 - The sanctions are part of a broader strategy involving U.S. allies, including the UK and EU, who are also preparing to announce new sanctions against these companies [5][11] - Domestic pressure in the U.S. is mounting for strong actions against Russia, with public support for sanctions and Republican lawmakers criticizing any perceived softness towards Russia [11][19] - The effectiveness of these sanctions in compelling Russia to negotiate remains uncertain, as Russia has adapted to previous sanctions and established alternative trading partnerships [19]

如今人民币作为全球排名前五的货币，与位居第四的英镑正在不断缩小差距。目前，其全球日交易量已 攀升至8170亿美元，在全球交易中的占比提升逾8个百分点。 持续对中国实施打压的美国，其豆农协会竟也表态，愿意采用人民币进行结算。这一转变，既出人意 料，又凸显出经济利益考量下的现实选择。 印度与俄罗斯在石油交易领域持续深化对接，且交易结算方式正逐步向人民币倾斜，双方不断推进以人 民币进行石油交易，展现出贸易结算格局的新动态。 这些种种现象表明，去美元化在不断的进行中，而人民币却在世界贸易中不断地发展壮大。即便最新消 息特朗普开始制裁俄油，很多中印企业出现了暂停采购俄油，但这种情况依旧改变不了中国人民币在不 断发展的道路。 美国的制裁只是暂时的，未来货币多元化必将取代美元的霸权地位。此前 俄印石油结算突然改用人民 币，全程未参与谈判的中国为何成最大赢家？答案藏在十年未雨绸缪的布局里。 国际财经圈近期热议一桩关键变局：俄罗斯与印度的石油交易结算货币，出现了超出市场预期的转向。 更值得关注的是，这场双边谈判的"局外人"中国，反倒成为变局中收益最显著的一方，这背后的逻辑并 非偶然。 变局的信号源自路透社近日披露的11则独家消 ...

前言 美欧对俄第19轮制裁正紧盯能源命脉，一边把俄液化天然气进口禁令提前到2027年初，一边拉黑117艘 俄"影子船队"油轮，试图掐断俄能源出口路。 但印度却闷声抓准机会，以比国际价低12-14美元的价格狂囤俄油，加工成成品油后再转卖给欧洲，这 波操作直接让印度净赚160亿美元，成了制裁背后的"隐性赢家"。 制裁砸向俄经济命脉 你发现没，欧盟这次是真下死手了。当地时间10月23日，第19轮对俄制裁正式通过，欧盟外交大佬卡拉 斯直接放话："这绝不是最后一轮"，透着一股子不依不饶的劲儿。 本轮制裁精准盯着俄罗斯的钱袋子往死里掐。能源领域终于动真格，原本定在2028年的液化天然气禁 令，硬生生提前到2027年初，等于给俄气出口判了"死缓"。 更狠的是，还把俄石油、俄气石油这两家巨头拉进全面交易黑名单，连原油价格上限都压到了47.6美元 一桶。 最关键的是那支"影子船队"——俄罗斯为躲制裁搞的五百多艘旧油轮，这次直接被欧盟拉黑117艘。 这些船可都是俄油出口的"秘密通道"，平均船龄二十多年，比全球平均水平老了快一倍，平时靠改船 名、关定位信号躲追踪。现在被盯上，等于断了俄罗斯绕开制裁卖油的后路。 金融方面更是全方位围 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, rebounding from a two-day decline, highlights the market's "buying on dips" mentality, driven by geopolitical tensions and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][3][4]. Market Dynamics - Gold prices experienced a significant rebound, with spot gold rising to $4,132.76 per ounce, marking a 1% increase in a single day, while December gold futures surged by 2% to $4,145.60 per ounce [1]. - The price drop on October 22, where gold fell to $4,054.34, was a decline of over $300 from the historical high of $4,381.21 on October 20, raising concerns about the sustainability of the gold bull market [1]. Investor Behavior - Despite the recent price drop, investors have shown a strong inclination to buy on dips, with many viewing price corrections as opportunities to enter the market [3]. - The trend of "buying on dips" has become a common strategy in the gold market, with significant inflows into gold ETFs observed throughout October [3][4]. Institutional Involvement - Institutional investors, particularly from North America and Europe, have been increasing their positions in gold ETFs, indicating a long-term bullish outlook despite short-term volatility [4][10]. - The combined efforts of retail and institutional investors provide robust support for gold prices, making it difficult for prices to experience significant declines [4]. Geopolitical Factors - Recent geopolitical developments, including U.S. sanctions on Russian oil companies, have contributed to market volatility, driving investors towards gold as a safe haven [4][6]. - The ongoing geopolitical tensions are expected to enhance gold's appeal as a "safe haven" asset, particularly in light of the recent sanctions imposed by the U.S. and EU on Russia [6][10]. Economic Indicators - The release of lower-than-expected U.S. inflation data has heightened expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with a 98.9% probability of a 25 basis point cut in November [7][8]. - Lower interest rates reduce the holding costs of gold, making it a more attractive investment option [8][9]. Central Bank Actions - Central banks globally are increasing their gold reserves at record levels, providing a strong foundational support for gold prices [10][11]. - A significant portion of central banks plan to continue purchasing gold, with 95% of surveyed central banks expecting to buy more gold in the next 12 months [10]. Future Projections - Morgan Stanley has set a target of $5,000 per ounce for gold by the end of 2026, citing stable demand and ongoing central bank purchases as key drivers [11]. - While short-term fluctuations may occur, the long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to persistent geopolitical tensions, central bank buying, and low interest rate expectations [12][15].

Core Viewpoint - India is reducing its imports of discounted Russian crude oil, and a potential reduction in U.S. tariffs could significantly offset the impact of this decision [3] Group 1: Trade Relations and Tariffs - Nomura Holdings suggests that if the U.S. lowers tariffs, it could help restore India's competitiveness in labor-intensive exports [3] - Economists predict that the punitive 25% tariff on Russian oil imports may be lifted after November, while a reciprocal 25% tariff will remain until the end of the fiscal year in March [3] Group 2: Oil Import Dynamics - India has imported approximately 1.8 million barrels of crude oil per day from Russia this year, accounting for 36% of its total crude imports [4] - Major Indian refiners have indicated that their imports of Russian oil will drop to nearly zero due to U.S. sanctions on Russian oil companies [3][4] Group 3: Economic Impact - The direct impact of India's reduced Russian oil imports is estimated to account for about 0.04% of its GDP [3] - The Reserve Bank of India estimates that a 10% increase in oil import costs could raise inflation by approximately 30 basis points and reduce economic growth by about 15 basis points [4]

震荡摩底 原油周报 2025/10/25 徐绍祖 （能源化工组） 从业资格号：F03115061 交易咨询号：Z0022675 严梓桑 （联系人） 0755-23375123 yanzs@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03149203 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估&策略推荐 05 原油需求 02 宏观&地缘 04 原油供应 08 另类数据 01 周度评估&策略推荐 行情回顾 资料来源：NYMEX、五矿期货研究中心 图1：WTI主力合约近月走势（$/桶） 50.0 55.0 60.0 65.0 70.0 75.0 80.0 85.0 2025/1/1 2025/1/8 2025/1/15 2025/1/22 2025/1/29 2025/2/5 2025/2/12 2025/2/19 2025/2/26 2025/3/5 2025/3/12 2025/3/19 2025/3/26 2025/4/2 2025/4/9 2025/4/16 2025/4/23 2025/4/30 2025/5/7 2025/5/14 2025/5/21 2025/5/28 2025/6/4 2025/6/11 2025/6 ...

美欧此番联动施压，被俄外交部发言人扎哈罗娃斥为"非法战争行为"。 市场动摇与中国立场 制裁压力已传导至消费端。据知情人士透露，印度最大炼油企业信实工业计划大幅削减甚至停止进口俄 油，而印度前九个月日均170万桶的进口量曾使其成为俄海运原油最大买家。 分析指出，印度此举意在为美印贸易谈判扫清障碍，但其转向将使俄石油出口面临缺口。 作为全球第二大石油出口国，俄罗斯正面临新一轮制裁风暴。近日，美国财政部宣布对俄罗斯石油公司 和卢克石油公司实施制裁，涵盖两家企业的多家子公司，美国财政部长贝森特直言此举旨在切断俄对乌 特别军事行动的资金来源。 这两家企业的原油出口量占俄罗斯总量近50%，其产量更是占据全球原油产量的5%以上，制裁力度堪 称"精准打击"。 事实上，美国对俄能源制裁早有铺垫。今年1月，美财政部已将俄罗斯天然气工业石油公司、苏尔古特 石油天然气公司等纳入制裁名单，同时对183艘"影子舰队"船只及30余家油田服务商实施限制。但此前 措施未能显著遏制俄石油出口，此次升级制裁后，部分美国议员仍在推动更严厉政策。 更严峻的是，欧盟同步敲定第19轮对俄制裁，首次禁止俄液化天然气入境，并将俄原油价格上限降至每 桶47.6 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. decision was unexpected considering Trump's historical emphasis on reducing energy prices [1] Group 1 - The decision reflects a shift in policy that contrasts with previous priorities [1]

特朗普取消与普京的和平会晤后，白宫随即对俄罗斯能源部门实施新制裁。 周三，总统宣布美国将针对俄罗斯最大的两家石油公司——俄罗斯石油公司和卢克石油公司——采取打 击措施，以削弱克里姆林宫通过石油销售为其战争提供资金的能力。 欧盟同步宣布对俄制裁，包括禁止进口液化天然气，该禁令将逐步实施而非立即停止。此外，欧盟还对 申根区的俄罗斯外交官实施新的旅行限制，并禁止俄罗斯影子舰队（一支秘密油轮舰队，专门违反西方 制裁运输石油）中的另外117艘船只进入欧盟港口。 美国的制裁是特朗普与普京关系转变的最新迹象，在俄罗斯总统普京拒绝接受美国提出的乌克兰停火条 件后，双方关系于周一出现恶化。 特朗普在椭圆形办公室对记者表示："你看，这些制裁力度非常大，针对的是他们的两大石油公司，非 常严厉。我们希望这些制裁不会持续太久，希望这场战争能够平息。" 他补充称，制裁目的是迫使普京回到谈判桌前，"希望他能变得通情达理，也希望泽连斯基也能通情达 理。你知道，正如我所说，一个巴掌拍不响，我们拭目以待吧。" 峰会取消背后的外交僵局 上周四，特朗普宣布计划在匈牙利与普京会面，引发一系列外交活动。但由于俄罗斯拒绝结束当前前线 的战争，该计划于周三 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent sanctions imposed by the Trump administration on Russian oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil mark a significant escalation in U.S. efforts to undermine the Russian economy, particularly its oil sector, which is crucial for funding the Kremlin's military activities [1][3]. Group 1: Sanction Details - The sanctions include freezing all assets of Rosneft and Lukoil in the U.S. and cutting off their financial access, with provisions for secondary sanctions against foreign entities dealing with them [3]. - The sanctions extend to all subsidiaries where these companies hold over 50% ownership, creating a comprehensive blockade [3]. - Prior to the U.S. sanctions, the UK had already implemented stringent measures against these companies, indicating a coordinated Western approach [3]. Group 2: Impact on Russian Oil Exports - Rosneft and Lukoil together account for nearly half of Russia's crude oil exports, averaging 3.1 million barrels per day, making them key players in the global energy market [5]. - The sanctions are expected to significantly impact India's oil imports, which heavily rely on Russian oil due to its price advantage, with India importing an average of 1.7 million barrels of Russian oil daily, constituting 35% to 40% of its total imports [5][7]. - If India ceases imports, it could face an increase in annual energy costs by $17 billion and a potential trade deficit expansion of $30 billion [7]. Group 3: Russia's Response and Adaptation - Russian President Putin acknowledged the severe impact of the sanctions but asserted that they would not significantly harm the overall economic well-being [9]. - Russia has developed strategies to mitigate the effects of sanctions, including diversifying its markets and utilizing non-dollar currency settlements, as evidenced by its shift to trade with India in yuan [9][11]. - The low price of Russian oil remains a competitive advantage, particularly in Asian markets, which may continue to attract buyers despite sanctions [9][11]. Group 4: Global Energy Market Dynamics - The sanctions represent a broader struggle for control over the global energy landscape, with the U.S. aiming to curb Russian influence while Russia seeks to pivot its energy exports eastward [11]. - Emerging market countries like India are navigating a delicate balance between U.S. demands and their own energy needs, leading to a diversification of energy sources from 27 to 40 countries [11]. - The sanctions are likely to create a bifurcated energy market, with Western nations rejecting Russian energy while emerging markets continue to accept it, potentially altering energy pricing mechanisms and diminishing the dollar's dominance in energy transactions [11][13].