Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, crude oil prices fluctuated within a narrow range, the monthly spreads of the three major crude oil markets declined slightly, and global oil inventories increased slightly. Policy-wise, the EU passed the 18th round of sanctions against Russia, lowering the price cap on Russian oil. Iran may conduct nuclear negotiations with major European powers next week, and whether to restart nuclear negotiations with the US depends on the US attitude. On the supply side, the Kurdish oil fields were attacked, and about 200,000 barrels per day of production is at risk of interruption. Fundamentally, global oil inventories increased slightly, while US commercial crude oil inventories decreased. Diesel inventories at major global trading hubs continued to decline, reaching historical lows, and the cracking spread of European diesel led the profit growth on the product side. After Independence Day, the apparent demand for gasoline in the US dropped significantly, and the global gasoline cracking spread has been fluctuating recently. This week, global refinery profits strengthened on a week-on-week basis, and the product side remained relatively strong. In China, refinery operations fluctuated. After the increase in operations in June, gasoline and diesel inventories at refineries increased significantly, and refinery profits weakened on a week-on-week basis, leaving limited room for further boosting operations. During the peak season of actual crude oil demand, the escalation of sanctions against Russia and the marginal tightening of Iranian crude oil supply support the crude oil inter - month structure. However, the peak - season factors have been largely realized, and the monthly spreads have been in a fluctuating pattern recently. In the medium term, the absolute price of crude oil faces downward pressure due to OPEC's accelerated production increase and the impact of US tariff policies on the global economy. Attention should be paid to the contradiction between non - OPEC production and the near - term diesel inventory [6]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Daily News - The API crude oil inventory in the US for the week ending July 18 was - 577,000 barrels, with an expected - 646,000 barrels and a previous value of 839,000 barrels [3]. - The US Treasury Secretary said that the next round of China - US talks may discuss China's purchase of Russian and Iranian oil. The Chinese Foreign Ministry responded, stating that China's stance on tariffs is consistent and clear, hoping that the US will work with China to implement the important consensus reached in the phone calls between the two heads of state, play the role of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism, and promote the stable, healthy, and sustainable development of China - US relations [3]. - Iran will hold a tri - party meeting with China and Russia on the Iranian nuclear program. The Iranian Foreign Ministry criticized European countries for using the "rapid restoration of sanctions" mechanism as a tool to threaten Iran [3]. 3.2 Regional Fundamentals - This week, the operating rate of major refineries in China decreased by 0.26%, while the operating rate of Shandong local refineries increased slightly by 1.17%. In China, refinery output showed a decline in gasoline and an increase in diesel, with gasoline inventories rising and diesel inventories falling. The comprehensive profits of major refineries and local refineries both declined on a week - on - week basis [5]. 3.3 Weekly Viewpoints - Crude oil prices fluctuated within a narrow range this week, with the monthly spreads of the three major crude oil markets declining slightly and global oil inventories increasing slightly [6]. - Policy: The EU passed the 18th round of sanctions against Russia, lowering the price cap on Russian oil. Iran may conduct nuclear negotiations with major European powers next week, and the decision to restart nuclear negotiations with the US depends on the US attitude [6]. - Supply: The Kurdish oil fields were attacked, and about 200,000 barrels per day of production is at risk of interruption [6]. - Fundamentals: Global oil inventories increased slightly, while US commercial crude oil inventories decreased. Diesel inventories at major global trading hubs continued to decline, reaching historical lows, and the cracking spread of European diesel led the profit growth on the product side. After Independence Day, the apparent demand for gasoline in the US dropped significantly, and the global gasoline cracking spread has been fluctuating recently. Global refinery profits strengthened on a week - on - week basis, and the product side remained relatively strong. In China, refinery operations fluctuated. After the increase in operations in June, gasoline and diesel inventories at refineries increased significantly, and refinery profits weakened on a week - on - week basis, leaving limited room for further boosting operations [6]. - Outlook: During the peak season of actual crude oil demand, the escalation of sanctions against Russia and the marginal tightening of Iranian crude oil supply support the crude oil inter - month structure. However, the peak - season factors have been largely realized, and the monthly spreads have been in a fluctuating pattern recently. In the medium term, the absolute price of crude oil faces downward pressure due to OPEC's accelerated production increase and the impact of US tariff policies on the global economy. Attention should be paid to the contradiction between non - OPEC production and the near - term diesel inventory [6]. 3.4 EIA Report - For the week ending July 11, US crude oil exports increased by 761,000 barrels per day to 3.518 million barrels per day [18]. - US domestic crude oil production decreased by 10,000 barrels to 13.375 million barrels per day [18]. - Commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 3.859 million barrels to 422 million barrels, a decrease of 0.91% [18]. - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.262 million barrels per day, a decrease of 1.1% compared to the same period last year [18]. - The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory decreased by 300,000 barrels to 402.7 million barrels, a decrease of 0.07% [18]. - US imports of commercial crude oil excluding strategic reserves were 6.379 million barrels per day, an increase of 366,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week [18].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the disconnect between market movements and news, suggesting that institutional investors often act on information before it becomes public knowledge, leading to potential traps for retail investors [1][3][9]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Federal Reserve's signals regarding regulatory relaxation for banks are seen as a potential precursor to market instability, reminiscent of past market crashes [1][2]. - Institutional activities often precede public news, indicating that significant market movements may occur before retail investors are aware of the underlying changes [5][8]. Group 2: Retail Investor Behavior - Retail investors are cautioned against relying solely on news for trading decisions, as the market often reacts to information long before it is reported [3][11]. - The article highlights a common phenomenon where positive news leads to negative market reactions, suggesting that retail investors may be misled by the timing of information release [9][10]. Group 3: Quantitative Analysis - The importance of quantitative data is stressed, with a recommendation for investors to focus on actual market movements rather than speculative interpretations of news [6][10]. - A call for the establishment of a data observation system to track real-time capital flows is made, emphasizing the need to identify genuine market trends [13].

Core Insights - Brazil's oil production is projected to peak by 2030 and may decline by half by 2040, potentially leading to the country becoming a net oil importer by the 2030s due to structural, policy, and technological limitations [1][2] - The lifecycle of Brazil's conventional oil fields is typically 27 to 30 years, with existing fields nearing maturity and new resource development not yet established to maintain current production levels [2] - There is a call for the Brazilian government to expedite oil and gas block bidding processes and optimize regulatory frameworks to attract advanced extraction technologies, such as hydraulic fracturing [2] Industry Analysis - Brazil's oil production is constrained by high extraction costs, technical requirements, and outdated institutional reforms, unlike the U.S. which has benefited from the shale oil revolution [1][2] - The Campos Basin, which began production in 1977, is reaching maturity, and the pre-salt fields developed in 2008 are expected to enter a phase of production decline in the coming years [2] - Despite a projected peak production of 3.697 million barrels per day in May 2024, Brazil's production growth lacks sustainability [2] Future Outlook - There is potential for Brazil to remain a stable supplier in the global energy market if institutional barriers are addressed and technological investments are strengthened [3]

Group 1 - The EU's latest sanctions on Russian oil are unlikely to have a severe impact, making secondary sanctions by the US one of the few remaining economic pressures on the Kremlin [1][4] - The new sanctions lower the price cap on Russian crude oil from $60 to $47.6 per barrel, effective September 3, and include a mechanism to ensure it remains 15% below the average price of Russian oil [1][3] - A significant addition is the ban on importing refined products made from Russian crude oil, aimed at closing loopholes left by previous sanctions [1][2] Group 2 - The effectiveness of initial sanctions has been limited, as countries like India have significantly increased their imports of Russian oil due to discounts from the price cap [1][3] - In 2024, Russia's oil and petroleum product export revenue is projected to reach $192 billion, significantly higher than its defense budget of $110 billion [3] - The EU's new sanctions package includes an additional 105 vessels sanctioned for evading the initial price cap, bringing the total to 447 [4] Group 3 - Secondary sanctions proposed by Trump could impose a 100% tariff on countries purchasing Russian oil unless a peace agreement is reached within 50 days [5][6] - The potential for secondary sanctions raises concerns about their effectiveness in the global energy market, as they could lead to increased oil prices and inflation, which the US does not want to see [7][8] - Despite escalating sanctions threats, both Russia and oil traders appear relatively unfazed at this time [8]

华盛顿的喧嚣与莫斯科的平静形成鲜明对比。白宫一片紧张，特朗普放出狠话：若俄罗斯50天内不停火，美国将对所有购买俄油的国家加征100%的关税， 中国、印度、土耳其首当其冲。北约秘书长斯托尔滕贝格则隔空向中国喊话，敦促其"尽快与普京沟通"，白宫官员向彭博社透露，此举意在"提高中俄合作 的成本"。然而，克里姆林宫对此却保持沉默，甚至传闻普京正全神贯注于筹备对乌克兰的"夏季攻势"。俄罗斯财政部仅轻描淡写地回应："国际市场瞬息万 变，俄罗斯将继续保持能源供应的稳定。" 更让白宫措手不及的是，中国的行动。6月份的数据显示，中国日均进口俄罗斯石油近200万吨，创下历史新高。东西伯利亚输油管道满负荷运转，远东港口 油轮络绎不绝，其中一半原油通过长期协议锁定价格，运输路线更是巧妙地避开了敏感的马六甲海峡。俄罗斯石油公司CEO谢钦在7月21日透露，上半年对 华石油供应增长5%，总量超过5500万吨，占俄罗斯能源出口总量的20%。 这沉默的背后，是一条条早已构建完成的"反杀链条"。中俄合作的底气，源于三条坚实的"钢铁动脉"： 首先是发达的管道网络。"西伯利亚力量"天然气管道年输气量达310亿立方米，占中国天然气进口总量的12%。" ...

Group 1 - Trade tensions are suppressing oil demand, leading to a decline in oil prices, with WTI crude oil falling to $66.21 per barrel and Brent crude oil to $68.59 per barrel [1][3] - The U.S. threatens to impose high tariffs on Russian oil buyers, with Turkey and India becoming key players in processing Russian crude for EU diesel exports, holding 14% and 11% of the EU diesel import market respectively [2][3] - The adaptability and innovation of key players like Turkish and Indian refineries are crucial in navigating potential sanctions and trade barriers [3][5] Group 2 - The soft power of oil is being hindered by current trade tensions, which disrupt the smooth flow of oil as a fundamental energy commodity [3][4] - The U.S. is leveraging its position as the largest oil and gas producer to shape the trading environment against Russia, using threats of sanctions as a geopolitical tool [4][7] - Russian oil's value realization is under threat due to the need to find new buyers and payment mechanisms, which diminishes its economic influence [4][7] Group 3 - Turkish and Indian refineries exhibit strong environmental adaptability through flexible sourcing and innovative processing techniques, which may mitigate the impact of sanctions on European diesel supply [5][6] - The U.S. is attempting to innovate its sanction strategies by targeting buyers rather than directly blocking Russian exports, which could redefine global oil trade rules [6][7] - The ongoing geopolitical conflicts may drive deeper innovations in the global energy trade system, including more regional supply chains and diverse payment systems [6][7]

Group 1 - The FTSE China A50 Index showed a significant increase in various sectors, particularly in banking and insurance, with many stocks closing in the green [1][6] - Major banks like Everbright Bank reported a market capitalization of 252.29 billion and a trading volume of 396 million, with a slight increase of 0.71% [3] - Insurance companies such as China Pacific Insurance and Ping An Insurance also saw positive movements, with market capitalizations of 376.79 billion and 360.95 billion respectively, and increases of 3.68% and 2.57% [3] Group 2 - The liquor industry, represented by Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye, showed strong performance with market capitalizations of 1867.98 billion, 234.55 billion, and 490.56 billion respectively, and trading volumes of 376.1 million, 140.2 million, and 171.4 million [3] - In the semiconductor sector, companies like Haiguang Information and Northern Huachuang reported market capitalizations of 315.37 billion and 241.15 billion, with trading volumes of 289.3 million and 154.7 million, reflecting increases of 3.74% and 0.64% [3] Group 3 - The energy sector, including China Petroleum and Sinopec, had market capitalizations of 734.75 billion and 277.41 billion, with slight increases of 0.33% and 0.50% [3] - The automotive sector, led by BYD, reported a market capitalization of 1872.03 billion, with a trading volume of 276.1 million and a minor increase of 0.09% [3] Group 4 - The financial sector, particularly securities firms like CITIC Securities, had a market capitalization of 1321.11 billion, with a trading volume of 314.3 million and an increase of 2.14% [4] - In the consumer electronics sector, companies like Luxshare Precision and Industrial Fulian reported market capitalizations of 381.19 billion and 529.45 billion, with trading volumes of 194.8 million and 152.1 million, showing mixed performance [4]

Main Variety Views Macroeconomy - Overseas: Trump reached a trade deal with Japan, the US imposed a 19% tariff on Philippine goods, the US - Indonesia agreement was finalized, and China - US will restart trade negotiations in Sweden. The dollar index fell to 97.3, and the 10Y US Treasury yield dropped to 4.35%. [2] - Domestic: A 1.2 - trillion Tibet hydropower project and industry supply - side optimization policies boosted market sentiment. The Shanghai Composite Index reached 3580, and the trading volume in the two markets rebounded to 1.93 trillion. [2] Precious Metals - International precious metal prices rose. Gold reached a nearly five - week high above $3400 per ounce, and silver neared $40. Trade uncertainties and low US bond yields drove the increase. [3] - With the US - EU trade negotiation at a standstill and political intervention risks, the safe - haven appeal of precious metals increased. Prices are expected to be volatile and bullish. [3][4] Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper and LME copper rose. The domestic spot market was active, and LME inventory increased to 12.5 tons. [5] - Trump's pressure on Powell, China's policies, and supply - demand fundamentals are expected to keep copper prices bullish in the short term. [5][6] Aluminum - Shanghai and LME aluminum prices rose. Aluminum ingot inventory increased, and aluminum rod inventory decreased. [7] - High overseas macro uncertainties and domestic policies boosted sentiment. Despite the high price and off - season consumption, the market is still bullish. [7] Alumina - Alumina futures and spot prices rose. Some enterprises plan to conduct maintenance in late July, tightening supply. [8][9] - Alumina is expected to remain bullish, but over - heating risks should be noted. [9] Zinc - Shanghai and LME zinc prices were bullish. The spot market was affected by high prices, and the transaction was mainly among traders. [10] - Overseas uncertainties, domestic policies, and LME's potential squeeze situation are expected to drive zinc prices to continue to rebound. [10] Lead - Shanghai and LME lead prices were volatile. The supply of electrolytic lead and recycled lead was limited, and downstream consumption improvement was limited. [11] - With cost support and limited upward drivers, lead prices will be volatile. [11] Tin - Shanghai and LME tin prices were bullish. The market atmosphere was warm, but the fundamentals were weak, with inventory likely to increase. [12] - Tin prices may be bullish in the short term due to capital, but continuous growth is not supported. [12] Industrial Silicon - The main contract of industrial silicon rose significantly. The spot price increased, and the warehouse receipt inventory decreased due to reduced production. [13] - Supply contraction and policies are expected to keep industrial silicon prices bullish in the short term. [13][14] Carbonate Lithium - Carbonate lithium futures and spot prices rose. Policy intervention and production line maintenance affected the market. [15] - Policy - driven lithium prices may be bullish, but demand - side signals need attention. [15][16] Nickel - Nickel prices were bullish. Nickel ore prices were weakening, and nickel - related products showed different trends. [17][18] - Overseas trade risks and domestic policies will make nickel prices volatile. [18] Crude Oil - Crude oil prices were weak. US API inventory decreased, and global oil demand growth may be affected by the economy and tariffs. [19] - Geopolitical risks are cooling, and the market is in a short - term bullish and long - term bearish situation. Short - term prices will be volatile. [19] Steel and Iron Ore - Steel futures were bullish. Coal policies and production control supported steel prices. [20] - Iron ore futures were bullish. Port inventory increased, and the market was driven by macro factors and improved fundamentals. [21] Bean and Rapeseed Meal - Bean and rapeseed meal futures rose. Brazilian soybean exports may decrease, and US soybean压榨利润 decreased. [22] - Weather in August and trade agreements will affect prices. Domestic policies and supply expectations will keep prices volatile. [22][23] Palm Oil - Palm oil futures rose. Malaysian palm oil production may increase, and exports decreased in the first 20 days of July. [24] - Domestic policies and potential supply - demand tightening are expected to make palm oil prices volatile and bullish. [25][26] Metal Main Variety Trading Data - The report provides the closing price, change, change percentage, trading volume, and open interest of various metal futures contracts on July 22, 2025. [27] Industrial Data Perspective - The report presents detailed data on copper, nickel, zinc, lead, aluminum, alumina, tin, precious metals, steel, iron ore, coke, coal, carbonate lithium, industrial silicon, and bean and rapeseed meal, including price changes, inventory, and basis. [28][33][35]

行业 原油日报 日期 2025 年 7 月 23 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅碳市场） 研究员 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy - chemical sector includes energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, etc. For each sub - sector, the report analyzes the fundamentals, market trends, option factors, and provides corresponding option strategies and suggestions [3][9] - It is recommended to construct option portfolio strategies mainly based on sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The report presents the latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes of various energy - chemical futures contracts such as crude oil, LPG, methanol, etc. For example, the latest price of crude oil (SC2509) is 504, down 3 with a decline of 0.55%, and its trading volume is 14.38 million lots, a decrease of 0.66 million lots [4] 3.2 Option Factors 3.2.1 Volume - to - Open - Interest PCR - The volume - to - open - interest PCR data of different energy - chemical options are provided, including volume PCR and open - interest PCR and their changes. For instance, the volume PCR of crude oil options is 0.53, an increase of 0.04, and the open - interest PCR is 0.56, a decrease of 0.05 [5] 3.2.2 Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of various option underlying assets are analyzed. For example, the pressure level of crude oil is 640 and the support level is 500 [6] 3.2.3 Implied Volatility - The implied volatility data of different energy - chemical options are presented, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and their changes. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of crude oil options is 28.55%, and the weighted implied volatility is 32.63%, an increase of 1.51% [7] 3.3 Strategies and Suggestions 3.3.1 Energy - related Options - **Crude Oil Options**: The OPEC + will increase oil supply by 550,000 barrels per day in August. The crude oil market is short - term weak. It is recommended to construct a neutral short - call + short - put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [8] - **LPG Options**: The LPG futures are in a short - term bearish market. It is recommended to construct a bearish short - call + short - put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] 3.3.2 Alcohol - related Options - **Methanol Options**: The methanol market shows a weak rebound. It is recommended to construct a neutral short - call + short - put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] - **Ethylene Glycol Options**: The ethylene glycol market is in a narrow - range, weak - bullish oscillation. It is recommended to construct a short - volatility strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11] 3.3.3 Polyolefin - related Options - **Polypropylene Options**: The polypropylene market is weak. It is recommended to use a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11] 3.3.4 Rubber - related Options - **Rubber Options**: The rubber market shows a low - level consolidation. It is recommended to construct a neutral short - call + short - put option combination strategy [12] 3.3.5 Polyester - related Options - **PTA Options**: The PTA market is weak. It is recommended to construct a neutral short - call + short - put option combination strategy [13] 3.3.6 Alkali - related Options - **Caustic Soda Options**: The caustic soda market is bullish. It is recommended to use a long collar strategy for spot hedging [14] - **Soda Ash Options**: The soda ash market is bullish. It is recommended to construct a bull - spread call option strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [14] 3.3.7 Urea Options - The urea market oscillates under bearish pressure. It is recommended to construct a neutral short - call + short - put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [15]