美国能源部长赖特站在加拉加斯总统府。他对面是委内瑞拉代总统罗德里格斯。两人身后挂着两国国旗。赖特宣布，美国对委内瑞拉的石油禁运"基本结 束"。他要推动这个南美国家的石油产量"大幅增长"。这话说完，现场记者都愣住了。一个月前，美军刚把委总统马杜罗抓走。现在，美国高官却来谈合 作。 委内瑞拉石油储量全球第一，超过3000亿桶。但产量惨不忍睹。最惨的时候，一天只能产40万桶。现在恢复到100万桶，还不到全球供应的1%。二十年前， 这个数字是350万桶。长期制裁、投资不足、设施老化，让委石油工业元气大伤。 这场交易暴露了小国的无奈。委内瑞拉石油主权还在，但财政大权被美国捏着。石油出口收益存在美国控制的账户里。想用钱？得美国点头。所谓"合作"， 本质是"监管下的稳定"。 全球能源格局正在洗牌。美国通过控制委内瑞拉石油，巩固能源霸主地位。欧佩克的影响力被削弱。重质原油贸易流向改变。亚洲炼厂要寻找替代油源。油 价波动更不可预测。 赖特离开加拉加斯时，带走了增产承诺。但真正考验刚刚开始。1000亿美元投资从哪来？老旧设施怎么改造？政治风险如何控制？这些问题没有简单答案。 美委关系的"戏剧性解冻"，可能只是漫长寒冬中的短暂暖阳 ...

Group 1 - Oil stocks experienced a broad decline in early trading, with Sinopec (00386) down 4.06% to HKD 5.43, PetroChina (00857) down 3.28% to HKD 9.15, CNOOC Services (02883) down 3.06% to HKD 9.49, and CNOOC (00883) down 2.79% to HKD 24.42 [1] - WTI crude oil futures fell by 2.77% to USD 62.84 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures decreased by 2.71% to USD 67.52 per barrel [1] - The U.S. President Donald Trump stated that the U.S. "must" reach an agreement with Iran, warning that the situation would become "very serious" if not resolved, with hopes for a deal within about a month [1] Group 2 - The latest EIA data showed a significant increase in U.S. crude oil inventories, rising by 8.53 million barrels, marking the largest weekly increase since January of the previous year [1] - Market trading logic has shifted from "geopolitical priority" back to "supply-demand priority," with expectations that substantial progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations could lead to a significant reduction in oil prices due to the return of supply surplus fundamentals [1] - Continuous large increases in inventory, unexpected production increases from OPEC+, and weakening demand are expected to suppress the upward price potential of crude oil [1]

Group 1 - The national production material market prices decreased by 0.3% from February 2 to February 8 compared to the previous week [1] Group 2 - Non-ferrous metal prices slightly declined, with aluminum, zinc, and copper decreasing by 3.8%, 1.4%, and 0.4% respectively [2] - Steel prices continued to fall, with rebar, hot-rolled strip steel, and ordinary medium plate priced at 3350 yuan, 3510 yuan, and 3627 yuan per ton, decreasing by 0.3%, 0.2%, and 0.2% respectively [2] - Coal prices showed a slight decrease, with anthracite, thermal coal, and coking coal priced at 1134 yuan, 776 yuan, and 1048 yuan per ton, decreasing by 0.4%, 0.1%, and 0.1% respectively [2] Group 3 - Rubber prices experienced a slight decline, with synthetic rubber and natural rubber both decreasing by 0.1% [3] - Basic chemical raw material prices showed minor fluctuations, with sulfuric acid increasing by 1.1%, while soda ash, polypropylene, and methanol decreased by 1.2%, 0.8%, and 0.6% respectively [3] - Fertilizer prices saw a slight increase, with compound fertilizer and urea rising by 0.2% and 0.1% respectively [3] Group 4 - Wholesale prices of finished oil slightly increased, with 95-octane gasoline, 92-octane gasoline, and 0-octane diesel rising by 1.8%, 1.7%, and 1.0% respectively [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that OPEC+ has delayed production increases, while shale oil production has peaked, leading to a slowdown in supply growth. On the demand side, global macroeconomic improvements and tariff adjustments are stabilizing and increasing oil demand. It is expected that oil prices will remain in a relatively loose range, with stronger bottom support, projecting Brent crude oil prices to be between $55 and $70 [1] Group 2 - In terms of natural gas, the United States may accelerate the construction of natural gas export facilities, which is expected to lower the cost of imported natural gas [1] Group 3 - The oil ETF (561360) tracks the oil and gas industry index (H30198), which includes publicly traded securities related to oil and gas exploration, extraction, refining, and sales, reflecting the overall performance of these companies. The constituent stocks are primarily large enterprises in the energy sector, characterized by strong cyclicality and sensitivity to commodity prices [1]

Group 1: Polyurethane Industry - The polyurethane industry in China has made steady progress, enhancing quality and efficiency while strengthening the resilience of the industrial chain [3] - The industry is accelerating its transformation towards green, low-carbon, high-end, and intelligent development, contributing significantly to the construction of a strong new materials nation [3] - The association aims to promote technological innovation, structural optimization, and safe green development in the new year [3] Group 2: Phosphate Fertilizer Industry - The phosphate fertilizer industry is committed to driving quality improvement and sustainable development through technological innovation and serving the agricultural sector [5] - The association expresses gratitude to all industry workers and supporters, emphasizing collaboration for high-quality development in the new year [5] Group 3: Chemical Engineering - The chemical engineering sector is witnessing unprecedented depth and breadth in technological innovation, reshaping the industry landscape [7] - There is a strong emphasis on overcoming key core technologies and fostering a collaborative innovation ecosystem [7] - The sector aims to cultivate outstanding engineering talent to drive future advancements [7] Group 4: Sulfuric Acid Industry - The sulfuric acid industry has shown steady growth in production and pricing while adhering to green development principles [9] - The industry is focused on continuing its transformation and upgrading efforts in the new year [9] Group 5: Chemical Construction - The chemical construction industry has demonstrated resilience and innovation in the face of market challenges, maintaining safety and promoting green development [11] - The association plans to continue supporting industry development and addressing challenges in the new year [11] Group 6: Environmental Technology - The environmental technology sector is committed to high-quality development and aims to contribute to ecological civilization and sustainable industry growth [14] Group 7: Oil and Gas Industry - The oil and gas sector has faced complex shipping conditions and supply responsibilities, ensuring safety and efficiency in operations [26] - The industry is focused on maintaining high standards for safety and efficiency in the new year [26] Group 8: General Industry Sentiments - Various industry leaders express their best wishes for the new year, emphasizing collaboration, innovation, and commitment to high-quality development [18][19][22][30]

国投期货研究院 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2026年02月13日 (原油) 隔夜原油大幅走低，布伦特原油跌破68美元/桶。特朗普表示谈判可能持续一个月，缓解了市场对近 期军事行动的担忧。IEA月报将今年全球石油需求增长预期从93万桶/日下调至85万桶/日。 供应 端，1月美国受风暴天气干扰，原油产量明显下滑；同时，停产与出口受限亦削弱了啥萨克斯坦、俄 罗斯及委内瑞拉的供应。IEA预计2026年原油供应过剩将超过370万桶/日，创年度平均水平的历史 新高。我们此前提示，油价在70美元/桶附近涨势明显松动，次日在地缘溢价回撤与库存累积的双重 压制下,原油遭遇大幅回调。鉴于奉节假期较长、美伊谈判前景仍不明朗，建议投资者注意规避风 险。 (贵金属) 隔夜贵金属震荡。本周美国非农就业超预期，降息预期受到压制，市场等待今晚CPI数据。她缘前景 仍存不确定性,短期责金属波动率逐渐下降,震荡等待驱动,保持观望。 【铜】 隔夜伦铜转跌，贵金属与美国股市联动下滑,金银关注非农就业指标超预期;而美股担忧Al发展影 响传统行业营收,且不确定就业潜力强弱。沪铜持仓缩减至55万手,价格跌破MA4 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the macroeconomic environment, focusing on the trends in global asset classes, particularly equities, bonds, and commodities, as well as the implications of AI technology and monetary policy. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Asset Class Performance in 2025** - In 2025, nearly all major asset classes, except oil, experienced growth, driven by liquidity and inflation concerns. Investors shifted wealth from bank deposits to risk assets, particularly precious metals, to preserve purchasing power in a high-inflation environment [3][2][4]. 2. **Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Outlook** - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a loose monetary policy in the long term to support the government's fiscal needs. In the short term, interest rates may remain unchanged due to persistent inflation and political pressures, with potential aggressive rate cuts anticipated under the new chairperson [4][5]. 3. **Challenges in the U.S. Treasury Market** - The U.S. Treasury market faces significant risks, including the normalization of quantitative easing, rising foreign bond yields, and geopolitical uncertainties. These factors have led to a reduction in allocations to U.S. dollar assets by sovereign funds, although U.S. Treasuries still hold appeal due to a lack of safer alternatives [5][4]. 4. **Precious Metals Price Trends** - Precious metals prices surged in 2025 but are currently in an overbought state, indicating potential short-term volatility. Factors such as a sudden dollar rebound or changes in Federal Reserve leadership could impact prices. Silver is particularly favored due to its industrial applications and strategic reserve demand [6][7]. 5. **Industrial Demand for Precious and Base Metals** - The industrial properties of precious and base metals are becoming increasingly important, with copper and aluminum also affected by technological advancements. The demand for these metals is expected to grow, driven by their roles in AI and energy sectors [8]. 6. **AI Technology and Investment Risks** - While the AI technology revolution is significant, investment in AI carries risks due to discrepancies between market expectations and actual developments. Financial instability among some AI companies could trigger industry-wide adjustments in 2026-2027 [9]. 7. **K-Shaped Economic Recovery** - The K-shaped recovery trend is expected to deepen, leading to political polarization. A significant portion of U.S. households is facing economic hardship, which could influence future elections and global monetary policies [10][11]. 8. **Investment Recommendations** - There is a preference for A-shares over U.S. equities, with a particular bullish outlook on silver due to its industrial demand. The bond market is viewed as problematic, and oil prices are expected to rise despite uncertainties [14]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content 1. **Market Risks and Consensus** - The market faces risks from potential trading crowding, where a small trigger could lead to significant adjustments. High fiscal deficits in countries like the U.S., France, and the U.K. pose serious concerns, with the possibility of a debt crisis in France or the U.K. leading to global financial turmoil [15]. 2. **Long-term Asset Strategy** - In the current inflationary environment, holding cash in banks is deemed unwise. The focus should be on assets that can withstand economic cycles, with a shift towards technology-driven investments and away from central bank-controlled assets [12].

每经编辑｜金冥羽 据俄罗斯《消息报》12日援引俄驻古巴大使馆消息报道，俄近期将以人道主义援助的方式向古巴运送一批原油和燃料。 报道说，美国对古巴实施的石油禁运已对古巴民众生活及国家经济发展造成严重影响。目前古巴民众已无法为汽车加油，一些酒店也已关闭。 据新华社，古巴副总理兼外贸外资部长佩雷斯-奥利瓦等政府官员6日晚在古巴电视台一档节目中宣布对燃料实行限购等一系列措施，以应对美国新一轮石 油封锁。 美国总统特朗普1月29日签署行政令，宣布国家紧急状态，威胁对向古巴直接或间接提供石油国家的输美商品加征从价关税。墨西哥总统辛鲍姆本周一（9 日）证实，在美国关税压力下，墨西哥对古巴的石油运输已经暂停。 据此前报道，多年来，美国对古巴实施了严厉的经济制裁，这让古巴高度依赖墨西哥（供应量占古巴石油进口总量的44%）、委内瑞拉（供应量占古巴石 油进口总量的33%）、俄罗斯（供应量占古巴石油进口总量的10%）的石油供应。上月初，在美国强行掳走委内瑞拉总统马杜罗后，封锁了所有委内瑞拉 石油输往古巴的通道。 校对|许绍航 每日经济新闻综合自新华社、央视新闻、第一财经、红星新闻、济南日报 佩斯科夫说，俄方愿意通过对话解决现有问题， ...

Group 1 - Kevin Warsh has been nominated by President Trump to replace Jerome Powell as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, with a focus on a policy combination of "rate cuts + balance sheet reduction" [2][10] - Following the announcement, silver prices dropped over 30% and gold prices fell 11%, marking the largest single-day decline since March 1980, indicating market volatility [2][10] - The U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has raised its ten-year deficit forecast by $1.4 trillion, partly due to Trump's tax and immigration policies [2][10] Group 2 - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the importance of stabilizing economic growth and ensuring reasonable price recovery as key considerations for monetary policy [3][11] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 0.25 percentage point reduction in various structural monetary policy tool rates, with the one-year re-lending rate now at 1.25% [3][11] - China's January CPI year-on-year growth rate fell to 0.2%, while the PPI year-on-year decline narrowed to 1.4% [4][11] Group 3 - The U.S. manufacturing sector unexpectedly expanded in January, with the growth rate reaching its fastest level since 2022, driven by increases in new orders and production [4][11] - The U.S. added 130,000 non-farm jobs in January, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 65,000, marking the largest increase since April of the previous year [4][11] - A temporary trade agreement framework has been reached between the U.S. and India, with India committing to purchase $500 billion worth of U.S. products over five years [4][12] Group 4 - The energy sector is facing geopolitical support for oil prices, with OPEC+ confirming plans to maintain stable oil production in March [5][12] - The chemical sector, including PTA and PVC, is showing resilience against market downturns due to anti-competitive measures and stock market interactions [5][12] - Agricultural products are under scrutiny due to weather forecasts and short-term swine disease situations [5][12]

品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2026-02-13 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2604 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 风险偏好降温，原油震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 核心逻辑：近期供需基本面的边际改善提供坚实支撑。OPEC+八大主要产油国明确宣布 2026 年 3 月 继续暂停增产，产量维持 2025 年 12 月水平，有效缓解了市场对于供应过剩的担 ...