| | | | SDIC FUTURES | | 2026年01月29日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | 螺纹 | ★☆☆ | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热轧卷板 | ★☆☆ | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ★☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ★☆☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ★☆☆ | | | 證硅 | な女女 | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | 女女女 | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面有所反弹。本周螺纹表需继续下滑，产量短期趋稳，库存继续累积。热卷需求、产量均小幅上升，库存继续下降,压 力逐步缓解。钢厂利润欠佳,下游承接能力不足，高炉复产放缓，铁水产量趋稳。从下游行业看,地产投资降幅继续扩大,基 建、制造业投资增速持续回落,内需整体依然偏弱,钢材出口维持高位 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that CICC maintains an "outperform industry" rating for Vale, with a target price of $20.5 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Tokyo stock market experienced a slight increase on January 29, with the Nikkei 225 index rising by 0.03% and the Tokyo Stock Exchange index increasing by 0.28% despite initial concerns over potential U.S. government shutdowns and poor performance from major stocks like Fast Retailing [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Nikkei index closed up by 16.89 points at 53,375.60 points, while the Tokyo Stock Exchange index rose by 9.81 points to 3,545.30 points [2]. - Early trading saw the Nikkei index drop over 300 points due to investor concerns, but later gains were driven by strong performances from semiconductor equipment manufacturer Advantest and large machinery parts manufacturer THK [1][2]. Group 2: Sector Performance - Most of the 33 industry sectors on the Tokyo Stock Exchange saw increases, with notable gains in the oil and coal products, transportation machinery, and mining sectors [2]. - Conversely, sectors such as services, retail, and other products experienced declines [2].

Group 1 - The stock price of Biyou Group (09893) has increased nearly 15%, with a cumulative rise of over 70% this month, currently trading at 1.63 HKD with a transaction volume of 7.0862 million HKD [1] - As of January 29, spot gold reached a peak of 5598.75 USD/ounce, with a year-to-date increase approaching 30%; additionally, the main copper contract in Shanghai hit a historical high of 110970 CNY/ton, while LME copper prices surpassed 14000 USD/ounce for the first time [1] - Biyou Group is strengthening its influence and control in the mineral resources sector through its two core assets: Anhui Jinding Mining and Tibet Tianren Project [1] Group 2 - Anhui Jinding Mining has become a significant profit growth point for the group since its production began in August 2021, with main products including sulfur concentrate, copper concentrate, iron concentrate, and gold [1] - In the past fiscal year, the mining area extracted over 960,000 tons of ore, with a compound annual growth rate of revenue exceeding 60% over the past three years [1] - The Tibet Tianren Project, located in Mêdog County, Tibet, is expected to be completed and put into production by the end of 2026 [1]

宏观与地缘方面，美联储维持基准利率在3.50%-3.75%不变，在连续三次降息25个基点后暂停行动，符合市场预期。 美联储主席候选人沃勒支持降息25个基点，与特朗普"钦点"理事米兰立场一致。美联储在声明中指出，失业率已 现初步企稳迹象，通胀仍处于相对高位，经济前景的不确定性依然较高。美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上表示， 加息并非任何人对下一步行动的基本假设，不相信美联储会丧失独立性，将建议下一届美联储主席远离政治。地 缘方面，美国总统特朗普再次对伊朗发出威胁称，下次对伊朗的打击将更加猛烈。特朗普称，一支庞大的舰队正 前往伊朗，已准备好迅速履行其使命。针对特朗普威胁，伊朗外长阿拉格齐表示，伊朗武装力量高度戒备，将对 任何针侵略作出迅速而果断的回应。 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-29 持货商挺价情绪明显 铜价维持震荡格局 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2026-01-28，沪铜主力合约开于 101900元/吨，收于 103060元/吨，较前一交易日收盘0.45%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力合 约开于 102,540元/吨，收于 102,430 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘上涨0.18%。 现货情况： 据 SMM ...

格隆汇1月29日｜在明晟公司（MSCI）对印尼上市公司价值提出根本性质疑后，印尼多位顶级富豪的财 富在周三单日缩水逾110亿美元。损失最惨重的是印尼富豪彭云鹏（Prajogo Pangestu），其名下能源与 矿业公司股价大跌，导致其净资产单日蒸发约50亿美元。彭博亿万富豪指数显示，他目前的净资产约为 350亿美元，今年以来已累计缩水近110亿美元。此番抛售是对MSCI一份报告的回应。该报告质疑了印 尼的股东报告规则，称投资者认为这导致了不透明的所有权结构，可能引发不当交易。MSCI表示将暂 停部分预期的指数调整，并警告称如果问题在5月前得不到解决，可能带来更多后果。"MSCI的冻结措 施是一个警告信号，"新加坡马来亚银行证券主要经纪交易主管塔雷克·霍查尼表示。如果印尼监管机构 能展现出进展，"事态将迅速缓和。否则，风险溢价将持续存在。" ...

智通财经APP讯，大中矿业(001203.SZ)发布公告，公司全资子公司安徽省大中新能源投资有限责任公司 (以下简称"大中新能源")提交的《加达锂矿矿区生态修复方案》于近日通过了自然资源部的专家评审。 ...

Group 1 - Southern Copper expects a decline in copper production over the next two years due to decreasing ore grades at its major mines in Peru [2] - The company forecasts copper production of 911,400 tons for this year, slightly above 900,000 tons in 2027, down from 954,270 tons last year [2] - The decline in production is primarily attributed to lower grades at the Toquepala and Cuajone mines in Peru [2] Group 2 - The CFO, Raul Jacob Ruisanchez, indicated a strategic shift towards increasing silver production, which is typically a byproduct, due to rising silver prices [2] - Southern Copper has discovered high-grade zinc-silver ore at its Buenavista mine in Mexico, prompting a focus on boosting zinc-silver output [2] - The company stated that if the relative prices of zinc, silver, and copper change significantly, it will reassess its production strategy, but currently, producing silver and zinc remains economically viable [2] Group 3 - Southern Copper reiterated its long-term goal of achieving a copper production target of 1.6 million tons by 2033 [2]

康波萧条期的资源繁荣 - 百年变局与资源价格 20260128 全球商品定价受金融和实物属性双重影响，美元主导金融属性，中国需 求主导实物属性，贱金属受实物供需驱动，贵金属受金融属性驱动，基 本金属兼具两者。 当前仍处于康波萧条期，AI 技术虽发展迅速但未广泛应用于工业领域， 难以构成新一轮康波回升，历次康波回升均伴随硬件革命，创造新需求 和就业。 中美贸易战并未改变全球贸易格局，仅导致贸易流向转移，关税措施无 法解决根本问题，只会促使供应链调整，如中国经东盟间接出口至美国， 美墨贸易增加。 中国正处于工业化成熟期，类似于 1976 年日本或 1,938 年美国，高端 制造业竞争力提升，低端劳动密集型产业外移，但仍具备较强发展潜力。 美国再工业化难以实现，制造业占国民经济比重持续下降，财政赤字与 贸易赤字存在孪生关系，削减贸易赤字需先削减财政赤字，但受内部结 构性问题制约。 Q&A 如何理解商品的金融属性和实物属性，以及它们在定价中的作用？ 商品的定价具有两个主要属性：金融属性和实物属性。实物属性指的是供应和 需求形成的产出缺口，而金融属性则涉及到计价货币的影响。在大宗商品市场 中，计价货币通常是美元，因此美 ...

能源金属全面上涨，重视镍板块低预期的修正 20260128 摘要 永兴材料和九零锂业计划在 2026 年完成年度开采量后启动换证，短期 内产量预计不受影响，为市场提供稳定供应。 碳酸锂价格预计春节前后保持强势，2 月排产环比下降约 10%，锂盐厂 检修导致供给收缩，电池厂按需采购及期货点价意愿强是支撑因素，宁 德时代采矿证复产情况是关键。 碳酸锂价格上涨对储能经济性影响有限，尽管理论上每上涨 10 万元影 响 IRR 约 3%，但电池厂成本传导不完全，储能项目仍具经济性，各地 容量补贴政策落地进一步支持。 动力电池市场近期销售疲软，受去年四季度集中采购影响，一二月份为 空窗期，三四月份销售情况将更明朗，需求稳定将推动权益板块新一轮 行情。 印尼政府整顿青山工业园区码头垄断，显示出民族资源主义倾向，可能 规范矿业生产，或对青山集团在印尼镍产业链的资源份额产生影响。 印尼政府有意加强镍产业管理，可能通过提高镍价增加税收，目标价位 为 1.9 万至 2 万美元，若实现，相关标的估值将显著降低。 钴板块全年上涨趋势明确，刚果金实施强制出口配额制度导致全球供应 短缺，海外贸易商积极采购中间品库存，供需逻辑和市场行为均支 ...