乘联分会：中国汽车流通协会乘用车市场信息联席分会秘书处现决定于2025年7月8日（星期二）下午 16:00举行"2025年7月乘用车市场分析发布会"。 相关链接 ...

点 击 蓝 字 关 注 我 们 本文全文共 685 字，阅读全文约需 2 分钟 为了便于大家进一步及时掌握全国乘用车市场产销动态，并了解行业政策、价格、二手车、新能源汽 车、商用车市场、上海汽车市场等情况，中国汽车流通协会乘用车市场信息联席分会秘书处现决定举行"2025 年7月乘用车市场分析发布会"，本次会议以 网上发布 的形式举行。 会议相关信息如下： 主办方： 中国汽车流通协会乘用车市场信息联席分会 协办方： 搜狐·汽车事业部 上海市信息中心 益普索（中国）咨询有限公司 上海安路勤企业管理咨询有限公司 上海福蓝汽车技术有限公司 广州威尔森信息科技有限公司 科瑞卓信（北京）咨询有限公司 广州市佩升前研市场信息咨询股份有限公司 会议报告网上发布时间： 2025年7月8日（星期二）下午16:00 请大家关注微信订阅号：cpca2024和官网www.cpcaauto.com，届时报告将通过以上两种渠道发布。感谢各 位的支持！ 会议报告内容： 1）2025年6月份上海汽车市场上牌情况 ——上海市信息中心； 2）2025年5月价格指数报告 ——福蓝汽车； 会议报告网上发布渠道： 微信订阅号（cpca2024） 官网（ ...

Core Viewpoint - The automotive sector is expected to experience significant growth, with a projected increase of 8.91% in the Shenwan Automotive Index by the first half of 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 8.88 percentage points, driven by advancements in intelligent driving and humanoid robots [1] Group 1: Passenger Vehicle Market Dynamics - The passenger vehicle market is anticipated to accelerate convergence, supported by vehicle replacement policies, with growth in the first half of 2025 [1] - Domestic manufacturers are expected to dominate the mainstream market under 150,000 yuan, while high-end market share still has room for growth [1] - New models in the 200,000-300,000 yuan range, such as Xiaomi's YU7, XPeng's G7, and Li Auto's i6, are expected to have blockbuster potential [1] - The high-end luxury market is well-supplied with models like the AITO M8/9 and the ZunJie S800, indicating continued growth in domestic and new energy vehicle shares [1] - The focus of competition is shifting from price wars to product strength, suggesting a need to monitor efficient players with scale effects and cost control, as well as leading intelligent driving companies [1] Group 2: Export Growth of Domestic Automakers - From January to May 2025, passenger vehicle exports are expected to maintain double-digit growth, with plug-in hybrid models being a significant growth driver [2] - 2025 marks a period of intensive overseas capacity deployment for domestic automakers, focusing on markets like Southeast Asia (represented by Thailand) and Latin America (represented by Mexico and Brazil) [2] - New entrants like Leap Motor and XPeng are set to take their first steps in overseas markets in 2025, with domestic models having pricing advantages that could become a key profit source for automakers [2] Group 3: Intelligent Driving Technology Expansion - The L2 segment is expected to see growth due to domestic chip replacement and economies of scale in core components, with leading players moving from L2 to L3 upgrades [3] - By 2025, sales of mid-to-high-end intelligent driving models are projected to reach 5.5 million units, with a penetration rate of 22.9% [3] - The L4 segment, particularly Robotaxi, is set to expand rapidly due to policy changes and cost reductions in core components, with leading players like Waymo and RoboTaxi receiving substantial orders [3] - The profitability of Robotaxi platforms is anticipated as fleet sizes increase, with a focus on core hardware suppliers, leading intelligent driving companies, and Robotaxi operators [3] Group 4: Humanoid Robot Sector Developments - In 2025, leading humanoid robot manufacturers like Tesla, Figure AI, and UBTECH are actively deploying in industrial scenarios, which is expected to enhance robot capabilities through large-scale data collection [4] - Challenges remain in complex home scenarios regarding cognitive decision-making, endurance, precision operation, and motion control [4] - Attention is recommended on key incremental components such as dexterous hands, lead screws, and sensors [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the upward trend in the passenger car market, driven by new vehicle launches and consumer demand, particularly in the context of the ongoing transition to electric and intelligent vehicles [5][17][18]. Weekly Data - In the fourth week of June 2025, passenger car sales reached 579,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 8.0% and a month-on-month increase of 3.7% [1][38]. - New energy vehicle sales were 298,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 26.7% and a month-on-month increase of 4.4%. The penetration rate for new energy vehicles was 51.6%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [1]. Market Performance - The A-share automotive sector rose by 0.65% from June 30 to July 4, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which increased by 1.80% [2][31]. - Among sub-sectors, commercial passenger vehicles and motorcycle segments performed well, with increases of 4.91% and 5.68%, respectively [2][31]. Investment Recommendations - The article suggests focusing on high-quality domestic companies that are accelerating in smart technology and globalization, recommending companies such as Geely, BYD, Li Auto, Xiaomi, and Xpeng [3][6][18]. - For the auto parts sector, it highlights the potential of companies involved in intelligent driving and new energy vehicle supply chains, recommending firms like Berteli, Horizon Robotics, and Top Group [6][19]. Industry Analysis - In 2024, 17 Chinese auto parts companies made it into the global top 100, generating a total revenue of 110.4 billion yuan, which accounts for 11.7% of the global top 100 auto parts companies [4][16]. - The article notes that the Chinese auto parts industry is still significantly behind the vehicle manufacturing sector, indicating substantial growth potential in the future [4][12][16]. Passenger Vehicle Market Outlook - The article indicates a positive outlook for the passenger vehicle market, driven by new model launches and easing consumer hesitation due to recent promotional activities by manufacturers [5][17]. - The introduction of new models like the Xpeng G7 and the Leapmotor B01 is expected to enhance market dynamics, with significant pre-orders reported [5][17]. Electric Vehicle and Intelligent Driving Trends - The intelligent driving sector is experiencing a bifurcation, with affordable options gaining traction in the 150,000 yuan market, while high-end models are evolving towards multi-modal integration [5][17][19]. - The article anticipates that 2025 will mark a pivotal year for intelligent driving technology, with widespread adoption expected [19]. Motorcycle Market Insights - The motorcycle market is witnessing growth, particularly in the mid-to-large displacement segment, with sales of over 100,000 units in May 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 31.1% [23]. - The article recommends focusing on leading companies in this segment, such as Chunfeng Power, as the market continues to expand [23]. Heavy Truck Market Dynamics - The heavy truck market is expected to benefit from expanded subsidy policies aimed at replacing older vehicles, with sales figures showing a year-on-year increase of 6.0% in May 2025 [24][25]. - The article suggests that the combination of natural gas truck adoption and policy support will drive demand upward, recommending companies like China National Heavy Duty Truck Group [25]. Tire Industry Outlook - The tire industry is positioned for growth, with strong demand and low valuations, as well as ongoing globalization efforts by leading companies [26][29]. - The article highlights the potential for significant performance improvements in tire companies due to advancements in smart manufacturing and product diversification [26][29].

金十数据7月4日讯，工业和信息化部7月3日发布2024年度中国乘用车企业平均燃料消耗量与新能源汽车 积分情况公告。数据显示，2024年度，中国境内117家乘用车企业共生产/进口乘用车2318.9万辆（含新 能源乘用车，不含出口乘用车），行业平均整车整备质量为1712千克，平均燃料消耗量实际值（WLTC 工况）为3.31升/100公里，平均二氧化碳排放量为78.47克/公里，燃料消耗量正积分为5285.2万分，燃料 消耗量负积分为584.7万分，新能源汽车正积分1728.8万分，新能源汽车负积分101万分。 工信部：2024年乘用车平均燃料消耗量实际值为3.31升/100公里 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the growth in the retail and wholesale of passenger vehicles in China during June 2023, indicating a positive trend in the automotive market [1] - In June 1-30, the national retail of passenger vehicles reached 2.032 million units, representing a year-on-year increase of 15% compared to the same period last year, and a month-on-month increase of 5% [1] - Cumulatively, from January to June 2023, the total retail sales amounted to 10.849 million units, showing a year-on-year growth of 10% [1] Group 2 - During the same period, the wholesale of passenger vehicles in China was 2.473 million units, which is a year-on-year increase of 14% and a month-on-month increase of 7% [1] - The cumulative wholesale from January to June 2023 reached 13.263 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12% [1]

乘联分会发布数据，6月1-30日，全国 乘用车市场零售203.2万辆，同比去年6月同期增长15%，较上月 增长5%，今年以来累计零售1,084.9万辆，同比增长10%；6月1-30日，全国乘用车新能源市场零售107.1 万辆，同比去年6月同期增长25%，较上月增长4%，全国乘用车新能源市场零售渗透率52.7%，今年以 来累计零售542.9万辆，同比增长32%。 ...

Group 1 - In May 2025, Chinese brand passenger cars sold 1.622 million units, representing a month-on-month increase of 3.3% and a year-on-year increase of 22.6%, accounting for 69% of total passenger car sales, with a market share increase of 5.3 percentage points compared to the same period last year [1] - From January to May 2025, Chinese brand passenger cars sold 7.562 million units, showing a year-on-year growth of 26.3%, and accounted for 68.8% of total passenger car sales, with a market share increase of 7.5 percentage points compared to the same period last year [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the strong growth of the passenger car market in China, driven by favorable government policies and regional disparities, with northern regions showing significant gains compared to southern regions [1][6][11]. Group 1: Passenger Car Market Trends - In 2025, the national retail sales of passenger cars are expected to grow by 9% year-on-year, with a strong performance observed from February to May, maintaining a growth rate of around 13% [4][5]. - In May 2025, retail sales reached 1.932 million units, a year-on-year increase of 13.3% and a month-on-month increase of 10.1%, with cumulative sales for the year at 8.811 million units, up 9.1% year-on-year [5][6]. Group 2: Regional Market Characteristics - The northern car market is showing a clear strength, with market share increasing by 2.8 percentage points year-on-year in May 2025, and by 2.1 percentage points compared to 2019 [7][8]. - The northeastern and northwestern regions are experiencing significant growth, while the southern regions, particularly the eastern and central areas, are lagging behind [6][8]. Group 3: Policy Impact on Market Structure - Government subsidies are favoring the development of low-end and economic vehicles, particularly benefiting A00 and A0 class electric vehicles in northern regions [1][9]. - The article emphasizes the importance of policy fairness in promoting the adoption of small and micro electric vehicles, which is crucial for their widespread acceptance [1][9]. Group 4: New Energy Vehicle Market Analysis - The new energy vehicle market is showing strong performance, particularly in pure electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles, with traditional fuel vehicles still holding a significant share in the northern and midwestern regions [14][15]. - In May 2025, the proportion of new energy vehicles in regions like Hainan and Tianjin reached around 60%, indicating robust growth [14][15].

Core Viewpoint - The automotive sector is expected to continue its growth trajectory, driven by technological innovation and the rise of AI and robotics, with a focus on three main themes: dividends, smart technology, and robotics [5][6][12]. Weekly Review Summary - In the third week of June, the compulsory insurance for vehicles reached 548,000 units, showing a week-on-week increase of 21.6% and a month-on-month increase of 40.0% [2][42]. - The performance of various automotive segments ranked as follows: SW automotive parts (+4.6%), SW commercial passenger vehicles (+3.2%), SW automotive (+2.9%), SW motorcycles and others (+2.4%), SW passenger vehicles (+0.1%), and SW commercial freight vehicles (0.0%) [2][9]. Industry Core Changes - Xiaomi launched the YU7, a mid-to-large luxury high-performance SUV, with prices starting from 253,500 CNY for the single-motor rear-drive version and going up to 329,900 CNY for the dual-motor high-performance version [4][11]. - Li Auto updated its Q2 2025 delivery forecast to 108,000 units, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.5% year-on-year but an increase of 16% compared to the previous quarter [4][11]. - Black Sesame Intelligence and Nullmax collaborated to create a mainstream production solution for assisted driving, utilizing a single Wudang C1236 chip [4][11]. - The YU7 model is equipped with a standard electric power steering system [4][11]. Sector Perspective Reaffirmation - The market remains optimistic about the automotive sector, particularly following the impressive pre-sale of the Xiaomi YU7, which surpassed 240,000 units in just 18 hours, setting a historical record [5][12]. - The recommendation is to increase the allocation towards dividend stocks in the automotive sector for the second half of the year, focusing on three main themes: dividends and good patterns, AI smart technology, and AI robotics [6][12]. Current Automotive Sector Configuration - The automotive sector is advised to focus on technological innovation as a means to achieve healthy development [6][12]. - Key stocks to consider include: - Dividend and good pattern theme: Yutong Bus, China National Heavy Duty Truck, and various automotive parts manufacturers [6][12]. - AI smart technology theme: Preferred stocks include Xpeng Motors, Li Auto, and Xiaomi Group in Hong Kong, and companies like Seres and BYD in A-shares [6][12]. - AI robotics theme: Recommended stocks include Top Group, Joyson Electronics, and others [6][12].