Financial Performance - The basic earnings per share (EPS) for Q1 2025 is 0.1516 yuan, a decrease of 8.4% compared to Q1 2024's 0.1655 yuan, but an increase from Q1 2023's 0.0904 yuan [1] - The operating revenue for Q1 2025 is 5.95 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 10.19% from 5.4 billion yuan in Q1 2024 and a significant increase from 4.37 billion yuan in Q1 2023 [1] - The net profit for Q1 2025 is 0.68 billion yuan, down by 8.11% from 0.74 billion yuan in Q1 2024, but up from 0.39 billion yuan in Q1 2023 [1] - The return on equity (ROE) for Q1 2025 is 4.64%, a decline of 15.64% from 5.50% in Q1 2024, but an improvement from 3.56% in Q1 2023 [1] Shareholder Structure - The top ten unrestricted shareholders hold a total of 13,575.23 million shares, accounting for 44.62% of the circulating shares, with a decrease of 173.06 million shares compared to the previous period [1] - The largest shareholder, Zhou Jinsong, holds 4,308.14 million shares, representing 14.16% of the total share capital, with no change in holdings [2] - The second-largest shareholder, Li Bingyu, holds 3,621.02 million shares, which is 11.91% of the total, also unchanged [2] - Cai Yuanhua increased holdings by 161.78 million shares to 1,932.63 million shares, representing 6.35% of the total [2] Dividend Policy - The company has decided not to distribute dividends or transfer shares in the current period [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (Maintain) [1] Core Views - The company has shown strong revenue growth with a 39.2% year-on-year increase in Q1 2025, reaching 380 million yuan, and a net profit of 50 million yuan, up 16.3% year-on-year [4] - The company maintains its profit forecast for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 200 million, 240 million, and 280 million yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 25.0%, 20.5%, and 16.0% respectively [4] - The company demonstrates strong competitiveness in product innovation and channel expansion, particularly in the Sam's Club, snack wholesale, and online channels, which are expected to provide significant growth opportunities in 2025 [4] Financial Performance Summary - Q1 2025 revenue from meat products was 350 million yuan, a 44.6% increase year-on-year, with poultry products contributing 320 million yuan, up 47.2% [5] - The company’s gross margin decreased by 4.35 percentage points to 27.08% due to lower margins from newly developed channels [7] - The company’s total revenue is projected to reach 1.545 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 30.6% [8] Channel Performance - Offline channel revenue in Q1 2025 was 350 million yuan, up 35.9% year-on-year, benefiting from the expansion into membership-based supermarkets and snack wholesale channels [6] - Online channel revenue reached 20 million yuan, a significant increase of 88.0% year-on-year, indicating substantial growth potential in this area [6] Profitability Metrics - The company’s net profit margin for Q1 2025 was 13.14%, down 2.60 percentage points year-on-year, influenced by the timing of financial income recognition [7] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 0.46 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 29.4, 24.4, and 21.0 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 22.13 yuan over the next six months [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.896 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.16%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 133 million yuan, up 15.36% year-on-year [1]. - The growth in revenue is driven by the rapid increase in sales of composite and cold oat products, with online sales channels growing over 17% and offline sales increasing by 14% [1][3]. - The company is expected to benefit from cost advantages as the price of Australian oats declines, enhancing profit margins [3]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 41.33%, a decrease of 3.22 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to rising oat prices and lower margins in online and new retail channels [2]. - The net profit margin for 2024 was 7.02%, down 0.30 percentage points year-on-year. However, in Q1 2025, the net profit margin improved to 8.28%, reflecting a positive trend [2]. - The company forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of 0.88, 1.21, and 1.52 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 21x, 15x, and 12x [3]. Revenue and Profit Growth Projections - The company anticipates a revenue growth rate of 18.14% for 2025, with net profit expected to increase by 47.82% [4]. - The projected revenue for 2025 is 2.24 billion yuan, with net profit reaching 197 million yuan [4]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company has established itself as a leader in the oat industry, with strong performance in both traditional and new retail channels [1][3]. - The successful launch of new products, such as oatmeal porridge in Sam's Club, indicates a robust sales strategy and market penetration [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Qiaqia Foods [2][6]. Core Views - Qiaqia Foods is expected to achieve a revenue of 7.13 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.8%, with a net profit of 850 million yuan, up 5.8% year-on-year [3]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a decline in revenue to 1.57 billion yuan, down 13.8% year-on-year, and a significant drop in net profit to 77.24 million yuan, down 67.9% year-on-year, primarily due to intensified competition and the timing of the Spring Festival [3][4]. - The company’s main products, sunflower seeds and nuts, showed modest growth, with revenues of 4.38 billion yuan and 1.92 billion yuan respectively in 2024, reflecting year-on-year increases of 2.6% and 9.7% [4]. Revenue and Profitability - The revenue from distribution and other channels was 5.67 billion yuan, down 1.4% year-on-year, while direct sales (including bulk snacks, e-commerce, and key accounts) reached 1.46 billion yuan, up 38.3% year-on-year [4]. - The gross margin for 2024 and Q1 2025 was 28.8% and 19.5% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 2.0 percentage points for 2024 but a decrease of 11.0 percentage points for Q1 2025 [5]. - The net profit margin for 2024 and Q1 2025 was 11.9% and 4.9% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 0.1 percentage points for 2024 but a decrease of 8.3 percentage points for Q1 2025 [5]. Financial Forecast - The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 is 756 million yuan, 919 million yuan, and 990 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -10.97%, 21.50%, and 7.79% [6][7]. - Earnings per share (EPS) for the same period are projected to be 1.49 yuan, 1.81 yuan, and 1.95 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 16, 13, and 12 [6][7]. Company Overview - Qiaqia Foods Co., Ltd. primarily produces nut snacks and baked leisure foods, with key products including Qiaqia red bag melon seeds and various nut mixes [8]. - In 2023, the company was recognized as one of the "Top 500 Asian Brands" with a brand value of 46.868 billion yuan [8]. Market Position - The company has expanded its international market presence, exporting to nearly 70 countries and regions, and is actively developing the Southeast Asian market [4]. - The company’s sales in the Eastern region and e-commerce channels have shown higher growth rates compared to overall company performance, indicating a strong market position [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Qiaqia Foods [2][6]. Core Views - Qiaqia Foods is expected to achieve a revenue of 7.13 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.8%, with a net profit of 850 million yuan, up 5.8% year-on-year [3]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a decline in revenue to 1.57 billion yuan, down 13.8% year-on-year, and a net profit of 77.24 million yuan, down 67.9% year-on-year, primarily due to intensified competition and the timing of the Spring Festival [3][4]. - The company’s main products, sunflower seeds and nuts, showed modest growth, with revenues of 4.38 billion yuan and 1.92 billion yuan respectively in 2024, reflecting year-on-year increases of 2.6% and 9.7% [4]. - The gross margin for 2024 is projected at 28.8%, with a significant drop to 19.5% in Q1 2025, influenced by rising raw material costs and competitive pressures in the nut market [5][6]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 is 756 million yuan, 919 million yuan, and 990 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -10.97%, 21.50%, and 7.79% [6][7]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 1.49 yuan, 1.81 yuan, and 1.95 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6][7]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company’s revenue is projected to be 7.13 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 4.79% compared to the previous year [7]. - The net profit margin for 2024 is estimated at 11.9%, while for Q1 2025, it is expected to drop to 4.9% [5][6]. Market Position and Strategy - Qiaqia Foods has been expanding its international market presence, exporting to nearly 70 countries and regions, with a focus on Southeast Asia and entry into the Costco channel in Canada [4]. - The company is actively managing its sales and administrative expenses in response to the revenue pressures experienced in Q1 2025 [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown steady growth, with a revenue increase of 20.2% year-on-year in 2024, reaching 1.896 billion yuan, and a net profit increase of 15.4%, amounting to 133.19 million yuan [7] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 655.6 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.9%, and a net profit of 55 million yuan, which is a 21.2% increase year-on-year [7] - The product structure continues to upgrade, with significant growth in various product categories and channels, indicating a trend of industry structural upgrade [7] - The company is expected to benefit from cost advantages in 2025, with a projected net profit of 180.63 million yuan, representing a 35.62% year-on-year increase [7] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: 1,896 million yuan in 2024, 2,214 million yuan in 2025, 2,546 million yuan in 2026, and 2,884 million yuan in 2027, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 20.16%, 16.78%, 15.00%, and 13.25% [1][8] - The projected net profit for the years 2025 to 2027 is 180.63 million yuan, 229.20 million yuan, and 276.09 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 35.62%, 26.89%, and 20.46% respectively [1][8] - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.81 yuan in 2025, 1.03 yuan in 2026, and 1.24 yuan in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 22.98, 18.11, and 15.03 [1][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has demonstrated significant growth potential, with a focus on accelerating the pace of new product launches [1] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 380 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 50 million yuan, up 16.2% year-on-year [7] - The company is actively expanding into new channels, particularly in membership-based supermarkets and e-commerce, which are expected to contribute to future growth [7] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023A: 966.21 million yuan - 2024A: 1,182.33 million yuan (22.37% YoY growth) - 2025E: 1,516.87 million yuan (28.30% YoY growth) - 2026E: 1,761.44 million yuan (16.12% YoY growth) - 2027E: 2,025.66 million yuan (15.00% YoY growth) [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected as follows: - 2023A: 116.16 million yuan - 2024A: 157.33 million yuan (35.44% YoY growth) - 2025E: 198.51 million yuan (26.18% YoY growth) - 2026E: 233.85 million yuan (17.80% YoY growth) - 2027E: 270.52 million yuan (15.68% YoY growth) [1] - The latest diluted EPS is projected to be: - 2023A: 0.27 yuan - 2024A: 0.37 yuan - 2025E: 0.46 yuan - 2026E: 0.55 yuan - 2027E: 0.63 yuan [1] Market Data Summary - The closing price of the stock is 13.50 yuan - The market capitalization is 5,773.84 million yuan - The price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is projected to be 49.71 for 2023A, decreasing to 21.34 by 2027E [5][1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company demonstrated significant growth in Q1 2025, achieving revenue of 380 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 50 million yuan, up 16.2% year-on-year [7] - The company is actively expanding its new product offerings and emerging sales channels, which are expected to contribute significantly to future growth [7] - The company maintains a positive outlook for profitability, with net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 expected to grow by 26.2%, 17.8%, and 15.7% respectively [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 380 million yuan, with a breakdown showing meat products revenue at 354 million yuan, a 45% increase year-on-year [7] - The company’s gross profit margin for Q1 2025 was 18.2%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to changes in channel structure [7] - The net profit margin for Q1 2025 was 13.1%, down 2.6 percentage points year-on-year [7] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The total revenue forecast for 2023A to 2027E is projected to grow from 966.21 million yuan in 2023A to 2,025.66 million yuan in 2027E, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 15% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 116.16 million yuan in 2023A to 270.52 million yuan in 2027E, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [1] Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on new product launches and expanding into new sales channels, particularly in e-commerce and membership-based supermarkets, which are anticipated to drive future revenue growth [7] - The company’s strategy includes enhancing operational efficiency and leveraging scale effects to improve profitability [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][13][16] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 2.26 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 22.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 380 million yuan, up 14.3% year-on-year. However, in Q1 2025, total revenue decreased by 14.0% year-on-year to 500 million yuan, with a net profit decline of 42.2% year-on-year to 50 million yuan [1][8][11] - The revenue growth in 2024 was primarily driven by the bulk snack channel and overseas markets, with significant contributions from the distribution/e-commerce/other channels [1][9] - The company is currently in a multi-channel growth phase, focusing on consolidating its leading position in niche markets while enhancing shareholder returns [13][16] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 35.5%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, influenced by promotional activities and rising raw material costs [2][10] - The first quarter of 2025 faced high base pressure, with a gross margin decline of 1.1 percentage points due to sustained high palm oil prices [11][12] - The company expects total revenues of 2.61 billion yuan in 2025, 3.00 billion yuan in 2026, and 3.46 billion yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.5%, 15.3%, and 15.0% respectively [3][13][15] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders is 400 million yuan in 2025, 460 million yuan in 2026, and 550 million yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 5.9%, 16.3%, and 17.8% respectively [3][13][15] - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are projected to be 17 for 2025, 15 for 2026, and 13 for 2027 [3][13][15] Market and Channel Insights - The bulk snack channel is expected to continue its rapid growth, with revenue share projected to exceed 20% [1][9] - The overseas market, particularly in Vietnam, has shown promising growth, contributing nearly 200 million yuan in revenue for 2024 [1][9]