Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the machinery industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment returns over the next 6-12 months [1]. Core Insights - The domestic sales of excavators continued to grow in December 2025, with a significant recovery in non-excavator categories. The total excavator sales (including exports) reached 23,095 units, a year-on-year increase of 19.2%, with domestic sales at 10,331 units, up 10.9% [3][4]. - The report highlights a robust recovery in the demand for construction machinery driven by ongoing infrastructure investments and the replacement cycle of machinery, projecting a compound growth rate of around 30% for replacement demand in the coming years [4][5]. - The export of excavators also showed strong growth, with December 2025 exports reaching 12,764 units, a 26.9% increase year-on-year, and total export value for the year at $64.2 billion, up 27.2% [6][10]. Summary by Sections Domestic Sales Performance - In December 2025, excavator sales reached 23,095 units, with domestic sales at 10,331 units, reflecting a 19.2% and 10.9% year-on-year growth respectively. For the entire year, total excavator sales were 235,257 units, up 17.0%, and domestic sales were 118,518 units, up 17.9% [3][14]. - Non-excavator machinery categories also saw significant growth, with loader sales increasing by 30.0% and motor grader sales by 14.0% in December 2025 [14]. Export Performance - The report notes that excavator exports in December 2025 reached 12,764 units, marking a 26.9% increase year-on-year, with total annual exports at 116,739 units, up 16.1% [6][14]. - The total export value of construction machinery for December 2025 was $64.2 billion, a 27.2% increase, with the annual total at $601.7 billion, up 13.8% [6]. Future Demand Drivers - The report emphasizes that active fiscal policies are expected to stimulate infrastructure investment, ensuring sustained demand for construction machinery in the medium term [5]. - The commencement of the Yaxia Hydropower Project, with an estimated investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, is projected to significantly boost machinery demand, with equipment needs potentially reaching 120 to 180 billion yuan [9][10]. Electric and Intelligent Machinery Trends - Electric loader sales surged by 218.7% in December 2025, with an electricization rate of 22.2%, indicating a strong trend towards electrification in the machinery sector [7]. - The report also highlights the growth potential in the forklift market, driven by advancements in robotics and artificial intelligence, with a projected 39.3% increase in sales of unmanned forklifts in 2025 [8]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several leading manufacturers, including SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, and Zoomlion, as well as component suppliers like Hengli Hydraulic, indicating a favorable long-term outlook for these companies [10].

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the first customized China-Europe freight train by Zoomlion from Changsha marks a significant step in enhancing international logistics channels and supporting local high-end equipment manufacturing in the context of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1][3]. Group 1: Logistics and Transportation - The China-Europe freight train (Changsha) is a response to the "14th Five-Year Plan" and aims to implement the strategies of "Manufacturing Power" and "Transportation Power" [3]. - The train provides a comprehensive "end-to-end, door-to-door" customized international logistics solution, including transportation organization, customs coordination, and overseas distribution [3]. - The train will transport high-end engineering machinery equipment over more than ten days and thousands of kilometers to its destination, enhancing the timeliness and stability of cross-border transport for major equipment [3][4]. Group 2: Collaboration and Support - The successful operation of the freight train is attributed to the collaboration among local government logistics offices, customs, and railway departments [3]. - Changsha Customs provides 24/7 customs clearance and emergency support services, guiding companies to use efficient declaration methods to expedite cargo passage [3]. - The coordinated efforts have optimized services, creating a "fast track" for customs clearance for Hunan manufacturing [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The China-Europe freight train (Changsha) aims to deepen cooperation with local manufacturing enterprises, expand its route network, and optimize service functions during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [4]. - By 2025, the freight train is expected to operate 1,037 trains, maintaining a scale of over 1,000 trains for five consecutive years, ranking among the top in the country [4].

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,585.06, up 97 points or 0.37% after a four-day decline[3] - The market experienced a trading volume of HKD 2504.51 million, with a net inflow of HKD 139.3 million from northbound trading[3] Economic Insights - Manulife Investment Management maintains a "neutral" rating on Hong Kong and China stocks, favoring Chinese stocks for potential investment opportunities due to positive GDP data[6] - The Chinese economy shows signs of stabilization, particularly with easing tensions in US-China relations, despite slightly weaker domestic consumption[6] Sector Performance - Among 88 blue-chip stocks, 51 saw gains, with notable increases in tech stocks like Kuaishou (up 3.6%) and Baidu (up 3.3%) while Netease fell by 3.7%[3] - The best-performing funds included Greater China, Asian, and Hong Kong stock funds, rising by 6%, 5.7%, and 5.3% respectively, indicating strong market momentum[8] Interest Rate Expectations - Expectations for three interest rate cuts in the US this year, with the first anticipated before the Federal Reserve chair change in May[7] Corporate Developments - Vanke's bond extension proposal received over 90% approval from bondholders, allowing for a partial principal repayment extension[10] - China Longgong expects a net profit increase of over 23% year-on-year, driven by steady sales growth and improved product margins[11]

Core Perspective - The approval of the "Hunan Xiangjiang New Area Land Space Planning (2021-2035)" marks a significant step towards establishing a modernized model for Xiangjiang, aligning with national strategies and local development goals [2][12]. Group 1: Development Framework - The planning outlines a comprehensive spatial layout characterized by "Five Mountains Integration, Eight Rivers into the River, One Core Leading, and Three Corridors Co-prospering," reflecting a new approach to development and protection [4]. - The ecological foundation of the area is emphasized, with five major mountain ranges and eight key rivers forming an ecological corridor that supports the region's unique landscape and provides high-quality recreational spaces [5]. Group 2: Economic and Innovation Strategy - The planning aims to establish a "dual-engine" development model, with the southern area focusing on the Xiangjiang Science City as a technology innovation hub and the northern area developing the Yugan New District for logistics and port industries [6]. - A "2+4+N" industrial system is proposed, combining two major national industry clusters with four pillar industries and various emerging sectors, ensuring a robust and diversified economic base [9]. Group 3: Public Services and Infrastructure - The planning prioritizes the enhancement of public services and transportation networks, aiming to create a "full-age friendly" urban environment that is accessible and equitable [10]. - A comprehensive transportation network is being developed, featuring efficient connections through high-speed rail and a dense urban road system, improving commuting experiences for residents [11]. Group 4: Future Vision - The ultimate goal is to position Xiangjiang New Area among the top national-level new areas by 2035, focusing on high-end manufacturing, urban integration, and ecological civilization [12][13].

Group 1: Market Overview - The market is currently observing the developments in the US-EU trade war, leading to a cautious outlook for the future [2][3] - The Hang Seng Index experienced a rebound after several days of decline, closing up 97 points or 0.37% at 26,585 points, with a total turnover of 250.45 billion [3] - The net inflow from northbound trading was 13.93 billion, indicating continued interest from mainland investors [3] Group 2: Macro & Industry Dynamics - Manulife Investment Management has given a "neutral" rating on Hong Kong and China stocks, favoring Chinese stocks due to positive GDP data and potential returns from tech stocks [6] - The Asian stock markets are expected to benefit from a weaker US dollar, with positive earnings forecast adjustments observed in Hong Kong, South Korea, and Taiwan [6] - The focus on high-value exports in China, including industrial equipment and new energy vehicles, aligns with the "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizing high-tech innovation sectors such as AI and advanced manufacturing [6] Group 3: Company News - China Longgong anticipates a net profit increase of over 23% year-on-year, reaching approximately 1.25 to 1.33 billion RMB, driven by steady sales growth and new product development [11] - Vanke's proposal for the extension of its domestic bond repayment was approved by over 90% of bondholders, indicating strong support for its financial restructuring efforts [10] - Skyworth Group plans to distribute its holdings in Skyworth Photovoltaic shares to shareholders and will seek to delist, with a proposed cash payment of 4.03 HKD per share [12]

Group 1: Equipment Manufacturing Industry - The excavator market continues to grow, while the automotive crane market also shows a positive growth trend, with domestic sales of 886 units in December 2025, a year-on-year increase of 39.1%, and exports of 1,025 units, a year-on-year increase of 37.2% [1][3] - The automotive crane has achieved six consecutive months of year-on-year positive growth, driven by factors such as policy support, equipment upgrades, new energy infrastructure, and export demand [1][3] - Other non-excavator products, excluding tower cranes affected by the real estate market, also maintain a growth trend, suggesting continued investment opportunities in the engineering machinery sector [3] Group 2: Solar Industry - The cancellation of export tax rebates is forcing the industry to clear out excess capacity, leading to a surge in component prices as companies accelerate overseas shipments to avoid rising costs [4] - Component manufacturers are entering a "grab export" mode, with distributors and project parties hoarding low-priced orders, resulting in a rapid transfer of inventory from factories to overseas and distribution channels [4] - The solar industry is currently in a phase of "cost-push price increases" versus "weak terminal demand," and future recovery will depend on the penetration of efficient battery technologies and the resilience of overseas demand [4] Group 3: Automotive Industry - In the first week of January 2026, the retail market for passenger vehicles saw significant declines both year-on-year and month-on-month, with daily wholesale figures dropping to 35,000 units, a 40% decrease compared to January of the previous year and a 30% decrease from the previous month [5] - The weak performance in the automotive market is influenced by holiday factors, reduced purchase tax incentives, and changes in subsidy methods, which may impact short-term sales [5] - Long-term prospects for the new energy vehicle market remain positive, with significant potential for penetration and increased consumption driven by advancements in automotive intelligence [5]

晨会纪要（2026/01/22） 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2026.01.22） 金融工程研究 主要指数多数下跌，两融余额继续上升——融资融券周报 行业研究 2025 年全国工程机械开工率为 44.89%——机械设备行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 5 晨会纪要（2026/01/22） 金融工程研究 主要指数多数下跌，两融余额继续上升——融资融券周报 3、风险提示 两融业务成本超预期变动风险；两融监管政策超预期变动风险。 行业研究 2025 年全国工程机械开工率为 44.89%——机械设备行业周报 王雪莹（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150525020001） 1、市场概况 上周（1 月 14 日-1 月 20 日）A 股市场主要指数多数下跌，其中中证 500 涨幅最大，上涨了 1.28%；上证 50 跌幅最大，下跌了 1.99%。此外，上证综指下跌 0.61%，深证成指下跌 0.10%，创业板 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the emergence of three new cities—Dalian, Xuzhou, and Wenzhou—joining China's "trillion-yuan club" by 2025, bringing the total number of such cities in mainland China to 30 [1][2]. Group 1: New "Trillion-Yuan Cities" - Wenzhou is set to surpass a GDP of 1 trillion yuan by 2025, becoming the third "trillion-yuan city" in Zhejiang province after Hangzhou and Ningbo [4]. - Xuzhou's GDP is projected to grow by approximately 5.8%, reaching 953.712 billion yuan in 2024, and is expected to cross the 1 trillion yuan mark in 2025, making it the sixth "trillion-yuan city" in Jiangsu province [5]. - Dalian anticipates a GDP growth of over 5.5%, with a projected GDP of 951.69 billion yuan in 2024, also expected to exceed 1 trillion yuan by 2025, marking a breakthrough for Northeast China [5]. Group 2: Common Characteristics and Development Strategies - The three new cities share a strong industrial foundation and leading industry clusters, such as Xuzhou's renowned engineering machinery cluster, Wenzhou's private economy-driven electrical and apparel industries, and Dalian's complete petrochemical industry chain [5][6]. - Experts emphasize the importance of "industry anchoring + institutional adaptation" for the success of these cities, highlighting the need for a flexible and efficient business environment [6]. - Each city has a unique positioning strategy: Wenzhou as a pioneer of private economy, Xuzhou as a leader in the Huaihai Economic Zone, and Dalian aiming to become a Northeast Asia international shipping center [6]. Group 3: Future Prospects and Competitors - Other cities are also vying to join the "trillion-yuan club," with potential candidates like Yancheng, Yangzhou, and Shaoxing in the Yangtze River Delta region aiming for this goal during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [10]. - Xiamen is projected to become the third "trillion-yuan city" in Fujian province by 2025, with a GDP of 858.901 billion yuan in 2024 [10]. - Shenyang is expected to become the second "trillion-yuan city" in Liaoning province, with a GDP of 902.71 billion yuan in 2024, indicating a high probability of surpassing the 1 trillion yuan mark during the 14th Five-Year Plan [10]. Group 4: Urban Development Evaluation System - The article calls for a re-evaluation of urban development metrics, moving beyond mere GDP figures to include quality indicators such as per capita GDP, total factor productivity, and green innovation intensity [12]. - It suggests incorporating metrics like the Gini coefficient of resident income and the number of patents per capita into the evaluation system for "trillion-yuan cities" to promote a shift from scale expansion to modernization focused on people [12]. - The transition from a "GDP era" to a "market value era" is proposed, where the total market value of listed companies in a city serves as a precise measure of development quality [13].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Hunan Province's foreign trade has achieved significant growth and diversification in 2025, with notable increases in exports and imports across various sectors [1][2]. - In 2025, Hunan's total import and export value reached 541.4 billion yuan, maintaining a scale above 500 billion yuan for five consecutive years, representing a 10.8% increase compared to 2020 [1]. - Hunan's automobile exports exceeded 30 billion yuan for the first time, reaching 33.84 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 26.8%, and electric vehicle exports surpassed 100,000 units, increasing by 128.2% [1]. Group 2 - The province's export structure in 2025 showed that total exports amounted to 320.76 billion yuan, with traditional industries like engineering machinery and agricultural machinery seeing significant growth [2]. - Hunan's import volume of bulk commodities increased by 28.4% in 2025, with notable rises in metal ore imports by 37.8% and significant growth in imports of beef, bird's nest, and coffee by 44.3%, 243.4%, and 380.6% respectively [2]. - The province's trade network has expanded globally, achieving import and export growth with 118 countries and regions, with trade with Belt and Road countries reaching 320.08 billion yuan, accounting for 59.1% of the total trade value [1].

1. Reported Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The company firmly promotes the mining strategy, concentrating superior resources and systematically deploying high - end equipment for the entire mining construction scenario. It has formed a mining product matrix and has developed systematic competitiveness in the high - tech and high - value - added mining field [22] - The heavy industry group provides the company with synergy advantages in product R & D, through "integrated collaboration" R & D between vehicle and engine enterprises [22] - The company actively responds to the "Belt and Road" initiative, with products covering over 95% of countries and regions along the route. It has continuously improved the global regional operation framework this year, with overseas subsidiaries increasing to 13, achieving high - speed growth in core markets such as Southeast Asia and Africa [22] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Basic Situation - The research object is Shantui Construction Machinery Co., Ltd., belonging to the construction machinery industry. The reception time was January 21, 2026, and the listed company's reception staff were Yuan Qing, Xiao Yao, and Dong Jianjun [17] 3.2 Detailed Research Institutions - The reception object is a fund management company, specifically, the relevant personnel from Harvest Fund is Zhai Fang [20] 3.3 Research Institution Proportion - No information provided 3.4 Main Content Data - The company has formed a mining product matrix centered on large - horsepower mining bulldozers and high - drive bulldozers, covering large mining excavators, mining graders, and TEH series rigid mining trucks, and has launched relevant products into the market [22] - The heavy industry group supports the "integrated collaboration" R & D between vehicle and engine enterprises, jointly creating a product portfolio with differential competitive advantages [22] - The company's products cover over 95% of countries and regions along the "Belt and Road" route. This year, it has improved the global regional operation framework, with overseas subsidiaries increasing to 13, achieving high - speed growth in core markets and effectively resolving single - market risks [22]