Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes a shift from narrative-driven trends to performance-based evaluations as the market enters the earnings forecast period, with a focus on sectors like chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and power equipment [2][5] - The adjustment of financing margin ratios is seen as a measure to stabilize the market and guide rational investment, indicating a potential shift towards a more balanced market environment [7][10] - The article highlights the acceleration of thematic rotation in the market, particularly focusing on domestic semiconductor and power sectors, driven by regulatory actions and strong demand [3][4] Group 2 - The market is expected to experience short-term fluctuations due to increased financing margin ratios and the cooling of previously hot themes, with a focus on sectors that show strong demand and industrial catalysts [4][8] - There is a recommendation for investors to adopt a cautious approach, focusing on sectors that benefit from structural changes and performance improvements, such as new energy and consumer goods [6][12] - The AI industry chain is identified as a key area for investment, with a consensus forming around its growth potential, despite some volatility in related sectors [13]

责任编辑：磐石 中信建投研报指出，开年以来跨年行情愈演愈烈，在本周主动降温后热点出现调整。复盘以往案例，此 举的目的是抑制疯牛可能产生的短期严重后果，长期大基调仍然较为积极，并且此次政策的实施更加具 有成熟度和前瞻性。整体来看，本次主动降温不影响跨年行情的整体格局，但是此前局部过热的情况可 能会得到缓解，资金交易的方向或将出现一些变化。从行业配置来看，AI算力、有色金属、创新药和 汽车有较为明显的景气催化，前期市场热点商业航天和AI应用可能阶段性调整，可以关注其他主题线 索如特高压、脑机接口、可控核聚变等。 财经频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> ...

中信证券：告别喧嚣，回归业绩 融资保证金的调整并不影响市场震荡上行的大方向，但会影响结构。主题板块博弈加剧，纯靠叙事 和资金接力驱动的单边趋势行情结束。步入年报预告期，业绩线索的权重重新开始上升。ETF的巨额赎 回属于逆周期调节的一部分，也给配置型资金提供了从容"上车"的窗口。配置上，好的组合应该是体验 好、阻力小且抗焦虑的，这是围绕"资源+传统制造定价权重估"为基础（化工、有色、电力设备和新能 源）构建组合的优势。在此基础上，可逢低增配非银（证券、保险），同时通过部分服务消费品种（如 免税、航空等）或高景气品种（半导体设备等）增强收益。 国泰海通：主题轮动加快，聚焦国产半导体与电力 上周证监会提出严肃查处过度炒作乃至操纵市场等违法违规行为，坚决防止市场大起大落。近期涨 幅较大且引发投资者热议的商业航天/GEO等主题炒作回归理性。国内千问/豆包等模型产品迭代加速拉 动国产算力需求，台积电资本开支指引超预期，国家电网加码"十五五"投资等成为新催化，交易监管有 助于引导市场行稳致远，主题轮动节奏加快，看好具备强需求支撑且产业催化密集的低位科技方向，如 国产算力、新型电网、机器人(300024)、内需消费。 "春躁 ...

Report Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the entire industry are provided in the report. Core Views - The geopolitical situation is escalating due to Trump's tariff announcements, affecting market risk - appetite across various asset classes. [5][15][17] - Different markets are in various states, with some facing supply - demand imbalances, while others are influenced by policy changes and seasonal factors. [2][24][30] Summary by Category Financial News and Comments Macro Strategy (Gold) - Fed Chair candidate Hasset is out, and Trump's tariff announcement boosts gold's safe - haven appeal. Gold is expected to be bullish in the short - term, and there is an opportunity to go long on the gold - silver ratio. [12][13] Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump's tariff on European countries over Greenland raises geopolitical risks, and the US dollar index is expected to rise in the short - term. [15][18] Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Geopolitical risks and uncertainty about the new Fed Chair lead to high - level oscillations in the US stock market during the earnings season. [22] Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducts reverse repurchase operations. Bond market rebound momentum will weaken, with a short - term oscillatory trend and a bearish long - term outlook. [24][25] Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Regulators are cooling the stock market, and the spring rally needs new catalysts. The long - position strategy for stock indices can be maintained. [26] Commodity News and Comments Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The port coke spot market is weak. The spot price is supported by downstream restocking, but the upward momentum of the futures is limited, with a short - term oscillatory trend. [28] Black Metals (Steam Coal) - Indonesian low - calorie steam coal prices are stable. Considering the cold wave in February, coal consumption is expected to rise, and coal prices are expected to remain flat. [30] Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Congo (DRC) restarts a large - scale iron ore export project. Iron ore prices are expected to continue the oscillatory trend due to high inventory and weak demand. [31][32] Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Steel production and inventory data show that supply - demand contradictions are accumulating. Steel prices may be strong in the short - term but face high inventory risks later. [35][37] Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - US biofuel policy and China - Canada trade agreements affect the oil market. Palm oil has short - term long - position opportunities, soybean oil can be a long - position variety, and rapeseed oil should be observed. [38][41] Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Indian sugar production is increasing, and demand is recovering. International sugar prices are expected to be strong in the short - term, and domestic sugar prices are expected to oscillate. [44][45] Agricultural Products (Cotton) - US cotton export sales are strong, but the upward momentum of the external market is limited. Domestic cotton prices are expected to oscillate and adjust before the Spring Festival. [51][52] Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - South American soybean harvest is promising, and domestic soybean meal supply is excessive. The May contract of soybean meal will remain weak. [53] Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - There are issues in some copper mines. Macro - level factors weaken, and copper prices are expected to oscillate at high levels. [57][58] Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Supply disruptions and demand support lead to a situation where lithium carbonate prices are likely to rise. Look for long - position opportunities after the position and volatility stabilize. [62][63] Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - LME's decision has a limited impact on lead. Lead fundamentals are weakening, and a short - selling strategy is recommended. [65][66] Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Macro - sentiment weakens, but zinc fundamentals are not significantly weak. Zinc prices may oscillate and adjust in the short - term. [70] Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Nickel supply is expected to shrink, and prices are likely to rise. Look for long - position opportunities on dips. [72][73] Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - Tin price fluctuations intensify. Pay attention to customs data, processing fees, and consumer recovery. [77][78] Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - With the decline of risk premiums, LPG prices are expected to oscillate horizontally. [80] Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - EU carbon prices are rising, with a short - term oscillatory and strong trend. [81][82] Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - US oil rig count increases, and the short - term upward momentum of oil prices is expected to weaken. [83][84]

智通财经APP获悉，银河证券发布研究报告称，展望未来，美联储短期内降息预期降低，全球地缘政治 不确定性加剧，预计港股窄幅震荡。配置方面，建议关注以下板块：(1)科技板块仍是中长期投资主 线，受益于产业链涨价、国产化替代、AI应用加速推进等多重利好。(2)消费板块有望持续受益于政策 支持，后续需关注政策落地力度及消费数据改善情况。(3)地缘政治局势紧张加剧，贵金属等避险资产 有望受益。 海外方面，美国2025年12月CPI同比上涨2.7%，核心CPI上涨2.6%，均与前值持平。美国11月PPI同比增 长3%，预估增长2.7%。美国上周初请失业金人数下降9000人至19.8万人，显著低于市场预期21.5万人， 为去年11月以来最低水平。美联储政策分歧仍存，但部分官员表态偏鹰，美联储降息预期下降。国内方 面，2025年我国外贸进出口达45.47万亿元，同比增长3.8%，连续9年保持增长。2025年我国社会融资规 模增量累计为35.6万亿元，比上年多3.34万亿元。2025年12月末的M2-M1剪刀差是4.7个百分点，较上月 的3.1个百分点有所扩大。 上周港股行情表现：(1)上周(1月12日至1月16日)，全球主要 ...

重点关注板块包括：半导体、AI、有色、汽车、人形机器人、核电、创新药、非银金融、商业航天、特高压等。 一、主动降温对跨年行情的影响 开年以来跨年行情愈演愈烈，资金踊跃进场，商业航天、AI应用等板块持续暴涨引发局部交易过热，上周主动降温后热点出现调整，部分投资者担忧这 会不会逆转跨年行情的格局。但是复盘以往案例，此举的目的是抑制疯牛可能产生的短期严重后果，长期大基调仍然较为积极，并且此次政策的实施更加 具有成熟度和前瞻性。整体来看，本次主动降温不影响跨年行情的整体格局，但是此前局部过热的情况可能会得到缓解，资金交易的方向或将出现一些变 化。 过往牛市中每次出现交易过热都会有降温政策，否则一旦市场形成疯牛后续容易引发更严重的后果。调控的节奏上，往往前期的调控只会引发市场短期下 跌，后续更多政策入场后累积影响越来越大才会引发市场大级别的调整，甚至逆转牛市格局。 中信建投证券发布研究报告称，开年以来A股跨年行情愈演愈烈，在上周主动降温后热点出现调整。复盘以往案例，此举的目的是抑制疯牛可能产生的短 期严重后果，长期大基调仍然较为积极，并且此次政策的实施更加具有成熟度和前瞻性。整体来看，本次主动降温不影响跨年行情的整体格 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from China Galaxy Securities indicates that investor sentiment has become highly active since the beginning of 2026, with a continuous increase in margin financing balance, reflecting policy signals aimed at guiding rational investment and maintaining market stability [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - During the week of January 12-16, the A-share market showed mixed performance, with the overall index rising by 0.49%. The Sci-Tech 50 index led with a 2.58% increase, while the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 recorded declines [2]. - Small-cap stocks outperformed, with the CSI 1000 index rising by 1.27%, compared to a 0.57% drop in the CSI 300. Growth and cyclical styles also saw gains of 1.78% and 0.94%, respectively, while financial stocks fell by 2.73% [2]. Group 2: Fund Flows - A-share market trading activity significantly increased, with daily trading volume averaging 34,651 billion yuan, up by 6,131.1 billion yuan from the previous week. The average turnover rate rose to 2.705%, an increase of 0.47 percentage points [3]. - As of Thursday, the margin financing balance reached 27,187.27 billion yuan, an increase of 911.36 billion yuan from the previous week [3]. - In the week, 17 new equity funds were established, with a total issuance of 13.152 billion units, up by 12.191 billion units from the previous week, representing 68.17% of total issuance [3]. - From January 8 to January 14, global funds saw a net inflow of 4.111 billion USD into A-shares, accelerating from a previous inflow of 0.374 billion USD [3]. Group 3: Valuation Changes - The overall A-share index's PE (TTM) valuation increased by 0.28% to 23.28 times, placing it at the 94.63 percentile since 2010. The PB (LF) valuation also rose by 0.28% to 1.92 times, at the 56.28 percentile since 2010 [3]. Group 4: Investment Outlook - The report emphasizes that the recent increase in margin financing balance and the adjustment of financing margin ratios are intended to stabilize the market and promote rational investment. The central bank has implemented a series of monetary policy measures to support economic transformation and indicated that there is still room for further rate cuts, which is expected to boost market confidence [4].

（文章来源：第一财经） 华泰证券研报称，2026年，预期全球电解铜供给仍有限，同比增量66万吨，增速2.4%；全球电解铜需 求由美国囤库及电网建设驱动，同比增量93万吨，增速3.3%；因此供需或从过剩转为短缺，叠加海外 通胀、流动性边际宽松等因素，铜价中枢或同比显著抬升。中长期来看，全球技术进步叠加海外制造业 复苏，多周期共振下2026—2028年电解铜需求或保持高增；而供给约束性较强（铜矿扰动频繁、资源稀 缺、对价格反应滞后），预测全球供需保持短缺，该期间铜价有望冲击$15000/t以上。 ...

（原标题：十大券商策略：回归业绩！主题轮动加快 聚焦这些板块） 中信证券：告别喧嚣，回归业绩 融资保证金的调整并不影响市场震荡上行的大方向，但会影响结构。主题板块博弈加剧，纯靠叙事和资金接力驱动的单边趋势行情结束。步入年 报预告期，业绩线索的权重重新开始上升。ETF的巨额赎回属于逆周期调节的一部分，也给配置型资金提供了从容"上车"的窗口。配置上，好的 组合应该是体验好、阻力小且抗焦虑的，这是围绕"资源+传统制造定价权重估"为基础（化工、有色、电力设备和新能源）构建组合的优势。在此 基础上，可逢低增配非银（证券、保险），同时通过部分服务消费品种（如免税、航空等）或高景气品种（半导体设备等）增强收益。 国泰海通：主题轮动加快，聚焦国产半导体与电力 上周证监会提出严肃查处过度炒作乃至操纵市场等违法违规行为，坚决防止市场大起大落。近期涨幅较大且引发投资者热议的商业航天/GEO等主 题炒作回归理性。国内千问/豆包等模型产品迭代加速拉动国产算力需求，台积电资本开支指引超预期，国家电网加码"十五五"投资等成为新催 化，交易监管有助于引导市场行稳致远，主题轮动节奏加快，看好具备强需求支撑且产业催化密集的低位科技方向，如国产算 ...

近年来科技主线引领市场行情，基金经理对人工智能（AI）、机器人等赛道的布局，已从基于中观产 业的广泛布局，转变为极致聚焦于细分技术和应用。近期，2025年基金四季报披露拉开帷幕，一批此前 表现较好的主题基金率先发布季报，其中有不少是在社交媒体上备受关注的"工具基"，如聚焦人形机器 人、算力、AI应用等细分赛道品种的产品，其调仓换股路线，体现了科技浪潮的澎湃叙事。科技主线 表现强劲的同时，有色金属板块也持续走强，有基金经理表示，该板块在2026年仍有明确投资机会。 （中国证券报） ...