1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Amid geopolitical conflicts, large - cap stock indices show resilience, and their anti - decline and stability are expected to continue in the current environment where the short - term situation is not fully clear. Overall, with the dual support of policy and capital, the independence of A - shares is prominent. Attention should be paid to the Two Sessions and the evolution of the Middle East situation [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - The 4th Session of the 14th National People's Congress will hold a press conference at 12:00 on March 4, 2026, at the Press Conference Hall of the Great Hall of the People. The spokesperson will answer questions from Chinese and foreign journalists regarding the agenda of the conference and relevant issues of the NPC. Regarding the "Iran's announcement to close the Strait of Hormuz", the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson urged all parties to stop military actions to prevent the regional situation from affecting the global economy. Regarding Trump's possible visit to China in March, the spokesperson said that China and the US are in communication, but no information is available for now. Trump said that the US will continue large - scale military operations in Iran, which may last 4 - 5 weeks, and the US is prepared for a longer - term operation [1] - In the spot market, the three major A - share indices opened lower and rebounded. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.47% to close at 4182.59 points, while the ChiNext Index fell 0.49%. In terms of industries, most sector indices declined. The petroleum and petrochemical, coal, non - ferrous metals, and national defense and military industries led the gains, while the media, computer, and social service industries led the losses. The market turnover exceeded 3 trillion yuan on that day. Overseas, the three major US stock indices closed mixed, with the S&P 500 Index rising 0.04% to 6881.62 points and the Nasdaq rising 0.36% to 22748.86 points [2] - In the futures market, the basis of stock index futures declined. In terms of trading volume and open interest, both the trading volume and open interest of stock index futures increased [2] 3.2 Strategy - In the context of geopolitical conflicts, large - cap stock indices show resilience. In the current environment where the short - term situation is not fully clear, the anti - decline and stability of large - cap stock indices are expected to continue. Overall, with the dual support of policy and capital, the independence of A - shares is prominent. Attention should be paid to the Two Sessions and the evolution of the Middle East situation [3] 3.3 Chart Data 3.3.1 Macroeconomic Charts - Charts include the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, the relationship between US Treasury yields and A - share trends, the relationship between the RMB exchange rate and A - share trends, and the relationship between US Treasury yields and A - share style trends [6][8][10] 3.3.2 Spot Market Tracking Charts - Table 1 shows the daily performance of major domestic stock indices on March 2, 2026. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.47%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.20%, the ChiNext Index fell 0.49%, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.38%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.23%, the CSI 500 Index remained unchanged, and the CSI 1000 Index fell 0.98% [13] 3.3.3 Stock Index Futures Tracking Charts - Table 2 shows the trading volume and open interest of stock index futures. The trading volume and open interest of IF, IH, IC, and IM all increased. For example, the trading volume of IF increased by 46,751 to 128,808, and the open interest increased by 13,048 to 287,543 [13][16] - Table 3 shows the basis of stock index futures. The basis of IF, IH, and IC all declined [36] - Table 4 shows the inter - period spreads of stock index futures, including the spreads between the next - month and current - month contracts, the next - quarter and current - month contracts, etc., with different changes in values [48][49]

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America maintains a strong bullish stance on the metals market in China, particularly for gold, copper, aluminum, and lithium, driven by tighter supply and structural demand from electrification and AI trends [1][2] Group 1: Market Outlook - The copper market is expected to face a supply gap of approximately 500,000 to 600,000 tons by 2026/27, with demand driven by electrification, including power grids, electric vehicles (EVs), energy storage systems (ESS), and AI infrastructure [2] - The aluminum sector in China is projected to have a price target of RMB 23,000 per ton by 2026, with industry profits expected to remain in the historical high range of RMB 6,000 to 7,000 per ton [2] Group 2: Stock Recommendations - Bank of America identifies China Aluminum (Chinalco) and China Hongqiao as top picks in the aluminum sector, raising their 2026 earnings expectations and providing valuation anchors of approximately 10x and 9x 2026E P/E respectively [3] - The target price for China Hongqiao has been increased to HKD 48 from a previous target of HKD 45, supported by strong aluminum price expectations and the company's vertical integration model [3]

有色金属日报 2026-3-3 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 交易咨询号：Z0023261 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 交易咨询号：Z002314 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 中东局势维持紧张，黄金、原油价格走强，白银冲高后走低，铜价冲高回落，昨日伦铜 3M 合约收盘 跌 1.59%至 13084 美元/吨，沪铜主力合约收至 102280 元/吨。昨日 LME 库存增加 3975 至 257675 吨， 增量来自亚洲仓库，注销仓单比例下滑，Cash/3M 维持贴水。国内电解铜社会库存增加 2.8 万吨，保 税区库存小幅增加，上期所日度仓单增加 0.5 至 29.6 万吨。华东地区现货贴水期货缩窄至 190 元/ 吨，下游复工推 ...

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America maintains a strong bullish stance on the Chinese metals market, particularly in gold, copper, aluminum, and lithium, driven by tighter supply and structural demand from electrification and AI trends [1][2] Group 1: Market Outlook - The bank expects a significant supply deficit in the copper and aluminum markets, predicting a global copper supply gap of approximately 500,000 to 600,000 tons by 2026/27 [2] - The demand for copper in China is projected to grow by about 2.5% in 2026, with potential government stockpiling acting as a strong catalyst [2] - The aluminum market in China is expected to see prices anchored at RMB 23,000 per ton by 2026, with industry profits likely to remain in the historical high range of RMB 6,000 to 7,000 per ton [2] Group 2: Stock Recommendations - Bank of America identifies China Aluminum (601600) and China Hongqiao (01378) as top picks in the aluminum sector, raising their 2026 earnings forecasts for both companies [3] - The estimated valuation for China Aluminum is approximately 10x 2026E P/E with a dividend yield of about 5%, while China Hongqiao is estimated at around 9x 2026E P/E with a dividend yield of approximately 7% [3] - The target price for China Hongqiao has been increased to HKD 48 from a previous target of HKD 45, supported by strong aluminum price expectations and the company's vertical integration model [3]

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America maintains a strong bullish stance on the metals market in China, particularly for gold, copper, aluminum, and lithium, driven by tighter supply and structural demand from electrification and AI trends [1][2] Group 1: Market Outlook - The copper market is expected to face a supply gap of approximately 500,000 to 600,000 tons by 2026/27, with demand driven by electrification, including power grids, electric vehicles (EVs), energy storage systems (ESS), and AI infrastructure [2] - The aluminum sector in China is projected to have a price target of RMB 23,000 per ton by 2026, with industry profits expected to remain in the historical high range of RMB 6,000 to 7,000 per ton [2] Group 2: Stock Recommendations - Bank of America identifies China Aluminum (Chinalco) and China Hongqiao as top picks in the aluminum sector, raising their 2026 earnings expectations and providing valuation anchors of approximately 10x and 9x 2026E P/E, respectively [3] - The target price for China Hongqiao has been increased to HKD 48 from a previous target of HKD 45, supported by strong aluminum price expectations and the company's vertical integration model, which positions it in the lowest cost quartile globally [3]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Data Overview - GDP growth rate in Q4 2025 was 4.5% year-on-year, down from 4.8% in the previous quarter and 5.4% in the same period last year [1] - Manufacturing PMI in January 2026 was 49.3%, up from 49.0% in the previous month and 49.1% in the same period last year [1] - Non-manufacturing PMI in January 2026 was 49.4%, down from 50.1% in the previous month and 50.2% in the same period last year [1] - Social financing scale in January 2026 was 722.08 billion yuan, up from 81.78 billion yuan in the previous month and 705.46 billion yuan in the same period last year [1] - M0 growth rate in January 2026 was 2.7% year-on-year, down from 10.6% in the previous month and 17.2% in the same period last year [1] - M1 growth rate in January 2026 was 4.9% year-on-year, down from 6.2% in the previous month and up from 0.4% in the same period last year [1] - M2 growth rate in January 2026 was 9.0% year-on-year, up from 8.2% in the previous month and 7.0% in the same period last year [1] - New RMB loans in January 2026 were 471 billion yuan, up from 22 billion yuan in the previous month and down from 513 billion yuan in the same period last year [1] - CPI growth rate in January 2026 was 0.2% year-on-year, the same as in the previous month and down from 0.5% in the same period last year [1] - PPI growth rate in January 2026 was -1.4% year-on-year, up from -2.1% in the previous month and -2.3% in the same period last year [1] - Fixed asset investment in December 2025 decreased by 3.8% year-on-year, down from a 0.5% decline in the previous month and a 3.2% increase in the same period last year [1] - Total retail sales of consumer goods in December 2025 increased by 3.7% year-on-year, down from 4.5% in the previous month and up from 3.5% in the same period last year [1] - Exports in December 2025 increased by 6.60% year-on-year, down from 8.20% in the previous month and 10.67% in the same period last year [1] - Imports in December 2025 increased by 5.70% year-on-year, down from 7.40% in the previous month and up from 0.84% in the same period last year [1] Group 2: Commodity Investment Reference Comprehensive - On March 2, due to the escalating Iran situation, 12 domestic futures varieties' main contracts hit the daily limit, and precious metals such as gold and silver rose sharply. Exchanges and banks issued risk warnings [2] - The Chinese Foreign Ministry urged all parties to stop military actions and avoid further escalation of tensions [2] - Due to the recent rise in international oil prices, the premium rates of many on - site crude oil theme funds soared, and some funds issued risk warnings. Two funds will be suspended from trading on March 3 [2] - Affected by multiple factors, the A - share resource sector continued to strengthen, and the configuration value of cyclical varieties was prominent [3] - On March 2, 26 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 41 had negative basis [3] - The China Phosphate Fertilizer Industry Association and other associations called on the industry to ensure supply and stabilize prices [4] Metals - As international gold prices rose, domestic gold stores suspended selling investment gold bars and switched to selling craft gold bars, which are 200 - 300 yuan more expensive per gram [5] - The Hong Kong MPF Authority is considering allowing MPF to invest in gold ETFs and will review the investment scope this year [5] - On February 27, copper inventory reached a new high in over 11 months, while tin, zinc, aluminum, lead, and nickel inventories decreased [6] - As of March 2, the silver ETF's holdings decreased, and the gold ETF's holdings remained unchanged [6] - Rio Tinto suspended aluminum supply negotiations with Japanese customers due to the Middle East conflict [7] - The Central Bank of Uganda plans to buy 100 kg of gold from March to June [7] - Floods cut off the main copper export channel in the Democratic Republic of the Congo [7] Energy and Chemicals - Japan's economy minister said there was no immediate impact on Japan's power and gas supply from the suspension of Qatar's LNG production [8] - Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz. Goldman Sachs estimated that European natural gas prices could rise by 130% and oil prices by $18 per barrel [8] - Qatar's LNG production suspension caused a significant shock to the European natural gas market, with futures prices rising by up to 50% [8] - Thailand banned oil product exports, launched an energy monitoring center, and took measures to ensure fuel reserves and protect consumers [9] - Russia's LNG exports increased by 5.8% from January to February [10] - The daily crude oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz dropped to 4 million barrels [11] - Brazil's oil production in January increased by 14.6% year - on - year [11] Agricultural Products - Argentina's agricultural product export revenue in February decreased by 41% year - on - year [12] - Indonesia raised the export tariff on crude palm oil to 12.5% from March 1 [12] Group 3: Financial News Compilation Open Market - On March 2, the central bank conducted 19 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 19 billion yuan [13] Important News - The Chinese Foreign Ministry responded to issues such as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the so - called missile purchase agreement [14] - Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi had phone calls with foreign ministers of Iran, Oman, and France, urging to stop military actions [14] - US President Trump said military actions against Iran might last 4 - 5 weeks, and Iran's top security official refused to negotiate [15] - The 14th National People's Congress Fourth Session will hold a press conference on March 4 [15] - The National Development and Reform Commission will strengthen communication with private enterprises [16] - China opposed the UK's sanctions on Chinese enterprises [16] - In 2025, the inter - provincial trade sales in China increased by 4.5% year - on - year [16] - Economists expect China's GDP growth target in 2026 to be around 5%, the deficit rate around 4%, and CPI growth around 2% [17] - Sichuan issued a document to promote rural revitalization [17] - The pilot of local government special bonds' "self - review and self - issuance" advanced steadily [18] - The China Inter - bank Market Dealers Association optimized the issuance process of science and technology innovation bonds [18] - As of the end of February, there were 1446 ETFs in the domestic market [18] - The US government lost a lawsuit, and over $175 billion in illegal tariffs will be refunded [20] - There were bond - related events such as bond suspension, debt restructuring, and redemption [20] - There were overseas credit rating changes for some Chinese enterprises [20] Bond Market Summary - The inter - bank bond market was strong, with most bond yields falling, and bond futures rising [21] - In the exchange bond market, some bonds rose and some fell, and the real - estate bond index and high - yield urban investment bond index had different performances [21] - The convertible bond index fell, and some convertible bonds had significant gains or losses [22] - Most money market interest rates showed different trends, and some bond issuance had specific yields and multiples [23][24] - European and US bond yields rose [25] Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB depreciated against the US dollar, and the US dollar index rose [27] Research Report Highlights - According to a survey, investors' focus in the bond market is on inflation, AI, and real estate, and the bond market is expected to be volatile [28] - CITIC Construction Investment is bullish on US bonds in the medium - term [28] - Shenwan Hongyuan believes that the downward space of certificate of deposit rates is limited, and long - term bond rates may have limited downward space [29] - Huatai Securities believes that the A - share market may be volatile in the short - term but will be determined by policies and industry trends in the medium - term. It gives suggestions on stock and convertible bond investment [29][30] Today's Reminders - Many bonds will be listed, issued, paid, and have principal and interest repaid on March 3 [31] Group 4: Stock Market News - On Monday, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.47%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index fell. A - share trading volume reached a one - month high. Resource - related sectors rose, while AI - related and consumer sectors fell [32] - The A - share resource sector continued to strengthen, and the resource price increase trend may continue in March [33] - The Hang Seng Index and related indexes fell, with some sectors performing differently. Southbound funds had net purchases [33]

2026年03月03日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 | 镍：印尼矿端现实跟进，三月警惕投机属性 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：矿端矛盾边际增加，成本支撑重心上移 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：供需偏强，关注底部支撑 | 4 | | 工业硅：关注市场情绪扰动 | 6 | | 多晶硅：偏弱震荡格局 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 资料来源：国泰君安期货、同花顺、Mysteel、SMM 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 3 月 3 日 镍：印尼矿端现实跟进，三月警惕投机属性 不锈钢：矿端矛盾边际增加，成本支撑重心上移 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 140,890 | -670 | 5, ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The所长早读 recommends the chemical industry with a four - star attention index [8]. 2. Report's Core View - The conflict between the US and Iran is escalating, causing significant impacts on the global energy and commodity markets. Geopolitical factors are driving up prices of many commodities, especially in the chemical and energy sectors. Different industries and commodities show various trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals and geopolitical sensitivities [7][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Geopolitical Situation - The military conflict between the US and Iran is intensifying. The US Defense Secretary and Trump have made statements indicating possible long - term military actions. NATO, France, the UK, and other countries have different stances on the conflict. Iran has stated its determination not to negotiate and has taken actions such as closing the Strait of Hormuz [7]. 3.2 Chemical Industry - Driven by geopolitical premiums, domestic chemical products have seen a wave of daily limit increases. The supply gap concerns due to the conflict have led to preventive production cuts by Asian refineries. Different chemical sub - sectors have different performances. For example, the aromatics sector, olefin sector, and some other sectors are affected differently by the conflict [9]. 3.3 Commodity Market - **Precious Metals**: Gold shows a strong trend due to geopolitical conflicts, while silver is in a volatile pattern [12][16]. - **Base Metals**: Copper's price upside is limited by inventory increases; zinc is in a range - bound oscillation; lead lacks driving forces and shows price fluctuations; tin is in an oscillatory adjustment; aluminum is running strongly, alumina is in a range - bound oscillation, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [12][19][22][25][28][32]. - **Energy and Minerals**: Iron ore prices are oscillating due to the game between expectations and reality; coking coal and coke are in wide - range oscillations;动力煤 prices show mixed trends in production areas with limited upward momentum; logs are in a small - scale oscillation due to the game between expectations and reality [12][58][68][72][74]. - **Petrochemicals**: PX, PTA, and MEG are strongly affected by geopolitical factors, with cost - driven price increases; rubber is oscillating strongly; synthetic rubber is running strongly; LLDPE may see upstream supply contractions due to increased crude oil risks; PP's C3 raw materials remain strong, and PDH device production cuts continue; caustic soda is in a wide - range oscillation; pulp is in an oscillatory operation; glass prices are stable; methanol is running strongly; urea is in a short - term oscillatory pattern; styrene is in a strong - oscillatory pattern; soda ash's spot market has little change; LPG is strongly affected by short - term geopolitical disturbances; propylene's fundamentals remain tight due to cost - side geopolitical disturbances; PVC is in a range - bound oscillation; fuel oil continues to be strong, and the price center has reached a recent high; low - sulfur fuel oil has risen significantly, and the high - low sulfur spread in the outer - market spot has continued to shrink; the container shipping index (European line) should continue to pay attention to short - term upward risks; short - fiber and bottle - chip are short - term strong due to cost increases and speculative demand release; offset printing paper is mainly in a wait - and - see state; pure benzene is in a strong - oscillatory pattern [12][77][87][91][95][101][106][112][116][123][126][128][133][141][144][146][162][166][171]. - **Agricultural Products**: Palm oil has limited fundamental contradictions and should pay attention to oil price disturbances; soybean oil is range - bound due to US soybean cost support; soybean meal is stable in market sentiment and may oscillate; soybean shows spot price increases and futures price corrections; corn is in an oscillatory operation; sugar should pay attention to low - basis opportunities; cotton is waiting for new driving forces; eggs are in an oscillatory adjustment; hogs are in a passive inventory - building pattern in the off - season, and the fat - standard price difference is emerging; peanuts are in an oscillatory operation [12][176][185][188][191][195][201][204][208].

2026年03月03日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：地缘政治冲突爆发 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：震荡格局 | 3 | | 铜：库存增加，限制价格上方空间 | 5 | | 锌：区间震荡 | 7 | | 铅：缺乏驱动，价格震荡 | 9 | | 锡：震荡调整 | 10 | | 铝：偏强运行 | 11 | | 氧化铝：区间震荡 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 铂：行情走势较为纠结 | 13 | | 钯：预计盘整 | 13 | | 镍：印尼矿端现实跟进，三月警惕投机属性 | 15 | | 不锈钢：矿端矛盾边际增加，成本支撑重心上移 | 15 | | 碳酸锂：供需偏强，关注底部支撑 | 17 | | 工业硅：关注市场情绪扰动 | 19 | | 多晶硅：偏弱震荡格局 | 19 | | 铁矿石：预期现实博弈，矿价震荡 | 21 | | 螺纹钢：震荡反复 | 22 | | 热轧卷板：震荡反复 | 22 | | 硅铁：资金与现实博弈，价格偏强震荡 | 24 | | 锰硅：资金与现实博弈，价格偏强震荡 | 24 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 26 | | 焦煤： ...

Group 1: Core Insights - Commodity prices continue to rise, with the fundamental high-frequency index reaching 130.1 points, an increase of 6.0 points year-on-year [2] - The industrial production high-frequency index is at 129.0, showing a year-on-year increase of 5.1 points, indicating stable production growth [2] - The inventory high-frequency index stands at 165.1, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.4 points, suggesting a healthy inventory level [2] Group 2: Industry Performance - The coal industry showed a performance increase of 14.5% in March, while the steel industry increased by 20.1%, indicating strong demand [1] - The oil and petrochemical sector experienced a significant rise of 35.0% in March, reflecting robust market conditions [1] - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a remarkable increase of 44.7% in March, highlighting a strong recovery in this industry [1] Group 3: Agricultural Sector Insights - The agricultural sector is facing increased attention due to geopolitical factors, with rising production costs driven by higher crude oil prices [8] - The price of live pigs has dropped below 11 CNY/kg, leading to deeper losses for producers, suggesting a potential reduction in supply [8] - The mushroom market remains strong, with prices for enoki mushrooms maintaining a positive trend, indicating growth opportunities in this segment [8] Group 4: Media and Internet Sector Analysis - The media sector underperformed, with a 5.1% decline in the media index, lagging behind the Shanghai Composite Index by 7.1% [5] - The gaming sector is expected to perform well, with a focus on major titles and high demand in Q1, suggesting investment opportunities [6] - AI applications are anticipated to drive growth in the media sector, with several companies launching new products and upgrades [6]