Core Insights - The "National Subsidy" program for consumer goods replacement is facing challenges, with reports of exhausted quotas leading to speculation about an early end to the program [1] - The government has allocated a total of 3,000 billion yuan in special long-term bonds to support the consumer goods replacement initiative, with 1,620 billion yuan already distributed to local governments [1][2] Group 1: Policy and Financial Support - The central government has issued 1,620 billion yuan in funding for the first and second quarters, with an additional 1,380 billion yuan planned for the third and fourth quarters [1] - The consumer goods replacement policy has significantly boosted sales, with 11 trillion yuan in sales generated by five major categories of consumer goods by May 31, 2025 [2] - Local governments are actively promoting the replacement initiative, with cities like Shenzhen and Fujian implementing specific plans to enhance consumer spending through subsidies [3] Group 2: Consumer Impact and Market Performance - As of May 31, 2025, the program has issued approximately 175 million direct subsidies to consumers, with notable participation in the automotive sector, where 4.12 million applications for vehicle replacements were recorded [2] - Retail sales in May reached 36,748 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 6.5%, the highest level recorded in the year [2] - The policy has led to substantial growth in retail sales across various categories, including home appliances and communication devices, with increases of 53.0% and 33.0% respectively [2]

Core Viewpoint - The national subsidy program for home appliances and digital products is temporarily paused due to funding exhaustion and system upgrades, but the overall policy remains in effect until December 31, 2025 [1][4]. Funding and Policy Status - The subsidy fund of 300 billion yuan has already consumed over 150 billion yuan by the end of May, leading to early exhaustion in provinces like Chongqing and Jiangsu [4]. - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance clarified that the current adjustments are only temporary management measures [1]. Reasons for Suspension - Funding consumption exceeded expectations, with significant demand in provinces like Chongqing and Hubei leading to early depletion of funds [4]. - System upgrades are being implemented to prevent fraudulent activities such as "fake recycling" and "multiple claims" [4]. - To avoid price disruptions during major sales events like 618, the overlap of national subsidies and platform promotions is being managed [5]. Restart Plans - The Ministry of Finance has allocated 81 billion yuan for the next round of funding, with various provinces announcing their restart timelines [5]. - Chongqing plans to launch the second round of subsidies in July, covering multiple sectors including home appliances and automobiles [5]. - Jiangsu will resume online systems after upgrades, implementing a "daily coupon grab" system [6]. Subsidy Rules - The subsidy standards remain unchanged, with maximum savings of up to 20,000 yuan available until December 31, 2025 [9]. - For home appliances, the subsidy is tiered based on energy efficiency, with a maximum of 2,000 yuan for high-efficiency products [10]. - For digital products, the subsidy is capped at 500 yuan for devices priced over 3,333 yuan [12]. Consumer Guidance - Consumers are advised to prioritize high-value items and act quickly due to limited funding availability [14]. - Specific search terms on platforms like JD.com can help consumers access subsidies efficiently [15]. - It is crucial to ensure that invoices are correctly issued to avoid invalid claims [14].

Group 1 - The "trade-in" policy has expanded this year, covering more product categories and stimulating consumer demand for home appliances, mobile phones, and smart wearable devices [1][2] - Retail sales of home appliances and audio-visual equipment increased by 53% year-on-year in May, while communication equipment sales rose by 33%, indicating a strong impact from the trade-in policy [1][2] - The sales of smart devices, particularly smartwatches, have seen significant growth, with an overall increase of 54% and smartwatches alone achieving an 80% year-on-year increase [2][3] Group 2 - Companies are adapting to the trend of consumption structure upgrades by launching products that meet consumer demands, such as large-screen TVs and smart refrigerators [3][4] - The market for quality products is growing, with companies like Hisense achieving top sales in 4K projectors on platforms like JD.com, reflecting consumer preference for high-quality and health-oriented products [3] - There is a call for companies to increase investment in product research and innovation to align with policy directions and consumer needs, enhancing market competitiveness [4][5]

6月18日，深圳市商务局发布的数据显示，2025年消费品以旧换新相关政策自启动以来，得到消费者踊 跃参与。截至6月16日，通过以旧换新带动汽车销售超7万台，销售金额176亿元。通过以旧换新政策线 上线下（300959）累计销售家电和数码产品1001万台，销售金额191亿元。(人民财讯) ...

6月16日，国家统计局公布了5月份经济运行数据。在消费领域，当月社会消费品零售总额达41326亿 元，同比增长6.4%，较4月提升1.3个百分点，创下2024年以来的最高增速纪录；环比增长0.93%，呈现 显著回暖态势。 7家机构对5月社零增速预测的算术平均值仅为4.85%，实际增速较平均预期值高出1.55个百分点。更值 得关注的是，所有机构预测值均未触及6%关口，其中最低预测值为4.3%，最高预测值也仅5.5%。这一 超预期表现使得社零数据成为5月经济指标中最令人惊喜的亮点。 图片来源：国家统计局 值得注意的是，5月社零增速表现大幅超出市场预期。根据Wind宏观预测平台数据，7家机构对5月社零 增速预测的算术平均值仅为4.85%，实际增速较平均预期值高出1.55个百分点。更值得关注的是，所有 机构预测值均未触及6%关口，其中最低预测值为4.3%，最高预测值也仅5.5%。这一超预期表现使得社 零数据成为5月经济指标中最令人惊喜的亮点。 数据来源：wind 5月消费市场呈现结构性增长特征。限额以上单位商品零售额同比增长了8.2%，增速加快，且较社零总 额增速高出1.8个百分点。 从细分领域看，汽车类零售额略增1 ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market indices experienced a decline, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.13% to 24028.83 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index down 0.06%, and the State-Owned Enterprises Index down 0.23% [1] - The 618 shopping festival coinciding with the national subsidy policy for replacing old products is expected to boost consumer demand for durable goods, including digital products, home appliances, and even automobiles [1] - The demand for durable consumer goods is anticipated to bring prosperity to related industries and provide strong support for the expansion of the domestic market [1] Group 2 - China Galaxy Securities suggests that the A-share market is likely to maintain a volatile trend in the short term, focusing on structural opportunities [1] - Three main lines of opportunity are identified: first, assets with high safety margins, characterized by low valuations and high dividends; second, technology as a long-term allocation focus; third, the consumer sector boosted by policy support [1] - The old-for-new policy is showing effects, with new consumption potential continuously released under the reconstruction of consumer behavior and deep technological empowerment [1] Group 3 - The Hong Kong consumption ETF (513230) combines e-commerce and new consumption, covering relatively scarce new consumption sectors compared to A-shares [2] - The Hang Seng Tech Index ETF (513180) includes both software and hardware technology, encompassing relatively scarce technology leaders compared to A-shares [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that the implementation of the old-for-new policy for consumer goods is crucial for boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand, serving as a "golden key" for economic growth and improving people's livelihoods [1][2]. Group 2 - The old-for-new policy has been expanded this year, including subsidies for new purchases of digital products such as smartphones, tablets, and smartwatches, and increasing the categories of appliances eligible for the program from 8 to 12. Additionally, 300 billion yuan has been allocated to support this initiative [2][3]. - Retail sales of household appliances, audio-visual equipment, communication devices, and furniture saw significant year-on-year growth in May, with increases of 53%, 33%, 30.5%, and 25.6% respectively, contributing to a 1.9 percentage point increase in total retail sales of consumer goods [2][3]. Group 3 - The old-for-new policy is driving explosive demand, leading to accelerated growth in related industries, particularly in green, smart, and high-quality products. In May, production of new energy vehicles, tablets, and electric bicycles increased by 31.7%, 30.9%, and 20.5% respectively [3][4]. Group 4 - There is a noticeable shift in consumer focus towards the performance and safety of products, moving from mere availability to quality. The old-for-new initiative aims to provide consumers with superior products, facilitating a quality upgrade in consumption and contributing to high-quality economic development [4].

Group 1: Policy Changes and Funding - The 2025 "old-for-new" policy has significantly increased funding support to 300 billion yuan, up from 150 billion yuan in 2024[24] - The subsidy scope has expanded to include more products, such as microwaves, water purifiers, dishwashers, rice cookers, and mobile devices[24] - As of the end of May, 162 billion yuan of central government subsidies have been allocated, with 138 billion yuan still pending distribution[7] Group 2: Market Impact and Performance - In April, retail sales of consumer goods grew by 5.1% year-on-year, with significant disparities in growth rates among categories[5] - Home appliance sales surged by 38.8% year-on-year in April, while automotive and communication equipment sales saw declines[39] - By the end of May, nationwide sales under the "old-for-new" program reached 1.1 trillion yuan, with approximately 175 million subsidies issued[33] Group 3: Regional Variations and Challenges - Some regions, like Chongqing, reported a subsidy redemption rate of 82.3%, leading to a suspension of certain subsidy programs due to fund exhaustion[33] - Local governments are adjusting subsidy mechanisms, with some areas implementing phased funding releases to manage demand[61] - The rapid use of subsidies in various regions has raised concerns about potential fraud and the need for improved monitoring mechanisms[65]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese economy showed stable growth in May, driven by effective macro policies and a significant rebound in consumer spending, particularly due to the "old-for-new" policy and e-commerce promotions [1][2][5] Economic Performance - In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41,326 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, the highest growth rate in 2024 [1][2] - The retail sales excluding automobiles amounted to 37,316 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 7.0% [2][4] - From January to May, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 203,171 billion yuan, growing by 5.0% [2][4] Consumer Trends - The "old-for-new" policy significantly boosted sales in various categories, with retail sales of home appliances and audio-visual equipment, communication devices, cultural office supplies, and furniture growing by 53.0%, 33.0%, 30.5%, and 25.6% respectively [1][4] - Online retail sales of physical goods accounted for 24.5% of total retail sales, with food items showing a growth rate of 14.5% [4][6] Regional Performance - Urban retail sales in May reached 36,057 billion yuan, up 6.5%, while rural retail sales were 5,269 billion yuan, growing by 5.4% [5] - For the first five months, urban retail sales totaled 176,490 billion yuan, increasing by 5.1%, and rural retail sales were 26,681 billion yuan, up 4.9% [5] Impact of Promotions - The "618" e-commerce promotion, which started on May 13, combined with the "old-for-new" policy, significantly accelerated online retail sales [5][6] - The total online retail sales reached 60,402 billion yuan from January to May, with a year-on-year growth of 8.5% [6]

Core Insights - The national subsidy program is not ending but is currently in a temporary pause, with the official end date still set for December 31, 2025 [1][3] - The first round of funding has been exhausted faster than expected, with over 150 billion yuan consumed by the end of May, accounting for more than 50% of the total 300 billion yuan allocated for the year [3][4] - The government is implementing stricter regulations to combat fraudulent claims, including linking serial numbers to identification for verification [3][4] Subsidy Details - The subsidy rules remain unchanged, with three main areas of focus: - **Automobiles**: Up to 20,000 yuan for scrapping old vehicles and purchasing new energy vehicles, with additional local incentives [5][8] - **Home Appliances**: Subsidies range from 15% to 20% based on energy efficiency, with a maximum of 2,000 yuan for high-efficiency products [5][8] - **Digital Products**: A 15% subsidy for smartphones, tablets, and smartwatches, capped at 500 yuan [5][8] Consumer Guidance - Consumers are advised to prioritize high-demand items such as air conditioners and high-end smartphones, as these subsidies are expected to deplete quickly [9][12] - Specific search terms on platforms like JD.com can help consumers access subsidies effectively, such as "家电省2000" for home appliances and "数码省2000" for digital products [9][12] - The second round of funding is expected to restart in late June, presenting a critical opportunity for consumers to take advantage of the subsidies before they run out [4][12]