Group 1 - The article highlights the ongoing promotional activities in the home appliance market during the National Day holiday, with retailers offering various incentives to attract consumers [3][5] - The fourth batch of government subsidies, amounting to 69 billion yuan, has been distributed, indicating that the home appliance subsidy program is nearing its end by 2025 [7][9] - There is a noticeable decline in consumer interest and foot traffic in stores compared to previous years, with predictions suggesting that the overall market performance during the holiday may not surpass last year's figures [3][5][11] Group 2 - Retailers are adapting to the scarcity of government subsidies by launching their own promotions, with some stores offering additional discounts and gifts to encourage purchases [3][5] - The shift from easily accessible subsidies to a more competitive "coupon" system has made it difficult for consumers to obtain these benefits, leading to a decline in consumer confidence and spending [6][8] - Analysts suggest that the reduction in subsidy availability is likely to impact the growth of the home appliance market, with companies needing to rely more on their competitive strengths rather than government support [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival are expected to trigger a surge in home appliance consumption, prompting Suning to launch a "Super Supplement" plan to preemptively meet consumer demand ahead of the Double Eleven shopping festival [1] Group 1: Company Initiatives - Suning is initiating a "Super Supplement" plan with 930 home appliance discount days to cater to consumer expectations [1] - Major brands like Haier, Midea, Hisense, Bosch, Panasonic, TCL, and others are collaborating with Suning to launch new products and exclusive deals during this event [1][3] - Midea plans to offer a comprehensive range of smart living solutions through Suning, emphasizing a one-stop shopping experience [3] - Haier is providing discounts of up to 20% on flagship product lines during the event [3] - Hisense is focusing on core life scenarios with subsidies of up to 20% and additional purchase discounts [3] - Panasonic is highlighting its high-end product launches and offering 20% subsidies on selected items [3] - Boss Electric is committing resources to support product availability and promotional activities for key appliances [4] - Bosch is emphasizing technological innovation and substantial discounts in collaboration with Suning [4] - TCL is offering significant subsidies and promotional gifts for its new products during the event [4] Group 2: Pricing and Promotions - Suning is redefining low-price benchmarks with significant discounts on various appliances, such as a 1.5 HP inverter air conditioner priced at 1399 yuan and an 85-inch quantum dot TV at 3999 yuan [7] - The promotional activities are set to start on September 30, aiming to create a shopping atmosphere akin to Double Eleven [7] - The event is designed to provide consumers with exceptional value, making high-quality appliances accessible at competitive prices [7]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Insights - The retail performance of the home appliance industry showed significant regional differentiation in September, with the market awaiting the release of the fourth batch of national subsidy funds [1][8] - The nominal subsidy, approximately 20%, plays a role in market promotion and competitive benchmarks, while actual subsidies are shared between enterprises and platforms [10][11] - As national subsidy resources become scarcer, brands are likely to shift from broad coverage to targeted investments, focusing on mid-to-high-end products to enhance overall brand pricing and profitability [10][11] Summary by Sections Weekly Topic - In July and August, retail performance was relatively stable due to the availability of national subsidy funds and a low base from the previous year. However, September faced high base pressures and regional subsidy exhaustion, leading to significant regional differences in subsidy distribution [1][8] - The central government has allocated a total of 300 billion yuan for consumer goods replacement subsidies, with 162 billion yuan and 690 billion yuan disbursed in previous batches [8] Company Announcements - Huabao New Energy announced the lifting of restrictions on 28.1342 million shares, accounting for 16.13% of the total share capital, effective from September 19, 2025 [11] - Bull Group completed a share buyback of 5.036 million shares, representing 0.28% of the total share capital, with a total expenditure of 250 million yuan [12] Data Tracking - Raw material prices showed a slight decrease in copper and aluminum prices, while the steel price index increased by 1.2% [13] - The CCFI comprehensive index for shipping rates decreased by 0.45%, with varying trends across different routes [21] - Real estate data indicated a year-on-year decline in sales area, completion area, and new construction area for the first eight months of 2025 [23]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the metals and new materials industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a strong performance in the metals sector, with the non-ferrous metals index outperforming the broader market indices [3][4] - It emphasizes the upward trend in industrial metal prices, particularly copper and aluminum, driven by supply-demand dynamics and macroeconomic factors [3][9] - The report suggests a long-term bullish outlook for gold prices due to central bank purchasing trends and geopolitical uncertainties [3][21] Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.91%, while the non-ferrous metals index increased by 5.11%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 3.16 percentage points [3][4] - Year-to-date, the non-ferrous metals index has risen by 17.99%, significantly outpacing the CSI 300 [4][8] - Key metal price movements include a 7.33% increase in copper and a 5.37% rise in aluminum over the past week [3][9] Price Changes - Industrial metal prices saw increases: copper up by 2.54%, aluminum by 1.78%, and zinc by 5.65% [3][15] - Precious metals experienced a decline, with gold prices down by 2.90% [3][15] - Lithium prices showed a slight increase, with battery-grade lithium carbonate rising by 1.67% [3][15] Supply and Demand Analysis - Copper supply remains tight, with domestic social inventory decreasing by 1.6 million tons [3][29] - Aluminum production capacity is stable, with a reported operating rate of 97.6% [3][46] - Steel production has increased, but demand from downstream sectors has softened, leading to a mixed outlook for the steel market [3][67] Key Company Valuations - Notable companies in the sector include Zijin Mining, with a PE ratio of 25, and China Aluminum, with a PE ratio of 16 [3][18] - The report suggests focusing on companies with stable earnings and dividend attributes, such as Baosteel and Shandong Steel [3][19]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [4] Core Viewpoints - Domestic appliance sales are expected to benefit from policy support, with the air conditioning peak season anticipated to see high temperatures and low inventory, making second-quarter demand promising [2] - The national subsidy policy is confirmed to continue, with a total of 300 billion yuan allocated for supporting the replacement of old appliances, ensuring sustained demand [6] - The market is witnessing a shift towards new consumption trends, with brands actively targeting younger demographics and innovating product offerings to capture new growth opportunities [6] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - Focus on quality white goods leaders benefiting from domestic policy continuation and overseas expansion, such as Midea Group (000333, not rated), Haier Smart Home (600690, Buy), and Hisense Home Appliances (000921, not rated) [2] - Attention to companies with potential in mature overseas markets and short-term supply chain advantages, including Hisense Visual (600060, Overweight) and Ousheng Electric (301187, Buy) [2] - Highlighting small appliance companies that may benefit from national subsidies and long-term demand for new appliance categories, such as Roborock Technology (688169, Buy) and Bear Electric (002959, Overweight) [2] - Monitoring kitchen appliance companies that are adjusting strategies and may expand overseas, including Boss Electric (002508, Buy) and Vatti Corporation (002035, not rated) [2] Market Dynamics - Recent retail data shows significant year-on-year growth in online sales for major appliance categories, indicating resilience in demand despite concerns over subsidy reductions [6] - The market is adapting to new consumer preferences, with brands leveraging innovative marketing strategies to engage younger consumers and explore new product categories [6]

Core Points - The third Hunan home appliance warehouse direct sales government subsidy event commenced in Changsha, achieving a transaction volume exceeding 50 million yuan on its first day [1] - The event will run until May 3, providing significant discounts on various home appliances [1] Group 1: Event Details - The event attracted a large number of consumers, with long queues forming at major brand exhibition areas [3] - Popular models, such as the Boss 17-set dishwasher, were heavily discounted from 13,980 yuan to 3,999 yuan, with other products also seeing substantial price reductions [3] Group 2: Subsidy Impact - The event aims to effectively implement consumer benefit policies, allowing consumers to enjoy substantial subsidies [5] - The range of subsidized home appliances has expanded from 8 categories to 16 categories and 62 subcategories, with increased subsidy amounts and more direct subsidy methods [5] - As of April 27, 2025, the province has processed 4.0281 million applications for the old-for-new subsidy, amounting to 3.534 billion yuan, which has driven sales of 27.631 billion yuan [5]