Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ [1] - Aluminum: ★☆☆ [1] - Alumina: ★★★ [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ★★★ [1] - Zinc: ☆☆☆ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆ [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★☆☆ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ☆☆☆ [1] - Polysilicon: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The market conditions of various non - ferrous metals are complex, with different trends and influencing factors for each metal. The report provides specific analysis and investment suggestions for each metal based on supply - demand fundamentals, macro - economic factors, and technical analysis [2][3][4] Summary by Metal Copper - Tuesday, Shanghai copper warehouse receipts gave back the previous day's gains, with spot copper at 79,585 yuan. The US included copper in the 2025 critical minerals list. The integer - level resistance of Shanghai copper is strong, and high - position short positions should be held [2] Aluminum - Today, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly. The spot in East China fell to par. At the beginning of the week, the social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 20,000 tons, and that of aluminum rods by 9,000 tons. The downstream start - up seasonally recovered. In the short - term, Shanghai aluminum will maintain a volatile trend, with resistance in the 20,800 - 21,000 yuan area. From late August to September, the expectation of smelter production cuts and overhauls increases, and there is still a regional supply shortage. The short - term fundamentals of aluminum are improving, but the rebound space is limited. It is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the range of 16,600 - 17,300 yuan/ton [3][6] Alumina - The operating capacity of alumina is at a historical high, with increasing industry inventory and SHFE warehouse receipts. Supply surplus is emerging. The spot in the north has fallen below 3,200 yuan. Alumina is in a weak - volatile state, with support at 3,000 yuan. If the futures - spot discount continues to widen, short - term long positions can be considered [3] Zinc - The increase in global mine supply is being realized, and TC continues to rise. Domestic smelters are highly motivated to increase production. The short - position space for mine profits in the futures market still exists. The spot is at a discount to the futures. Zinc inventory is becoming more visible. Shanghai zinc is under downward pressure. Wait for short - selling opportunities after a rebound [4] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel rebounded slightly, with dull market trading. Traders are reluctant to lower prices. The inventory of pure nickel decreased to 41,000 tons, and that of nickel - iron remained at 33,000 tons. The stainless - steel inventory is at 934,000 tons. Technically, nickel prices still have the intention to rebound, but the fundamentals are weak. Look for short - selling positions [7] Tin - Shanghai tin increased positions slightly and closed below 270,000 yuan. Spot tin rose to 270,000 yuan. It is expected that tin prices still have the potential to rise in the short term, and long positions can be held based on the MA60 moving average [8] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate corrected, and market trading shrank. The total market inventory decreased slightly to 142,000 tons. The mid - stream production decreased by 5% week - on - week. Take a bullish view with risk control [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures decreased positions and declined. The market sentiment was affected by the weakening of coking coal prices. The supply in Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Yunnan increased this month, and the demand also followed up. The short - term sentiment fluctuations make the futures price weak, and the support at 8,300 yuan/ton should be observed [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures continued to fluctuate. After last week's industry meeting, the spot price of N - type re - feeding materials rose to 49,000 yuan/ton. The inventory pressure of polysilicon is greater than that of silicon wafers. It is expected to maintain range - bound fluctuations in the short term, and the strategy of buying on dips can be continued [11]

Core Viewpoint - The speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference has boosted market expectations for a rate cut in September, leading to upward support for non-ferrous metal prices due to marginal global liquidity easing [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - Domestic fiscal and financial policies are continuously working to unleash domestic demand potential, combined with U.S. economic data indicating a possible soft landing, which has increased market risk appetite [1] - Industrial metals are transitioning between peak and off-peak seasons; although inventories continue to accumulate, certain varieties are affected by supply-side maintenance and seasonal disruptions, alongside gradually increasing demand during peak seasons, which may improve the supply-demand balance and support prices [1] Group 2: Long-term Outlook - In the context of a global monetary system restructuring, non-ferrous metals are expected to continue performing well in the medium to long term [1] Group 3: Investment Products - The mining ETF (561330) tracks the non-ferrous mining index (931892), which selects securities from companies engaged in non-ferrous metal mining, smelting, and related businesses to reflect the overall performance of listed companies in the non-ferrous metal mining sector [1] - The index constituents exhibit strong cyclical characteristics and are influenced by global economic conditions, supply-demand changes, and policy factors [1] - Investors without stock accounts may consider the Guotai CSI Non-Ferrous Metal Mining Theme ETF Initiated Link A (018167) and Guotai CSI Non-Ferrous Metal Mining Theme ETF Initiated Link C (018168) [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Stock Exchange has announced the listing of China Nonferrous Mining Group Co., Ltd.'s 2025 public offering of technology innovation perpetual bonds (second phase) aimed at professional investors, effective from August 20, 2025 [1][2]. Group 1 - The bonds will be traded under the name "中色 YK11" with the security code "243551" [2]. - The trading methods for these bonds include matched transactions, click transactions, inquiry transactions, competitive bidding transactions, and negotiated transactions [2]. - According to China Clearing rules, these bonds can participate in pledged repurchase transactions [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Jin Hui Co., Ltd. (603132.SH) reported its semi-annual results for 2025, highlighting significant institutional ownership in the company [1] - As of August 15, 2025, a total of 8 institutional investors disclosed holding shares in Jin Hui Co., Ltd., with a combined holding of 891 million shares, representing 91.15% of the total share capital [1] - The institutional investors include Gansu Yate Investment Group Co., Ltd., Zhongming International Holdings Group Co., Ltd., and others, with a slight decrease of 0.05 percentage points in institutional holding compared to the previous quarter [1] Group 2 - One new public fund was disclosed in this period, namely the Zhongshan Zhongzheng Nonferrous Metals Mining Theme ETF [1] - Two public funds were not disclosed in this period compared to the previous quarter, including Shenwan Hongyuan Quantitative Small Cap Stock (LOF) A and Jinying Xinyi Mixed A [1]

Core Viewpoint - Huaxi Nonferrous disclosed its semi-annual report for 2025, showing significant growth in revenue and net profit, alongside an increase in total and net assets, indicating a strong operational performance in the first half of the year [1] Financial Performance - The company achieved operating revenue of 2.787 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.66% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders reached 382 million yuan, up 9.49% year-on-year [1] - Total assets at the end of the reporting period were 8.135 billion yuan, an increase of 5.10% from the beginning of the year [1] - Net assets attributable to shareholders were 4.382 billion yuan, reflecting a 9.59% increase from the start of the year [1] Resource and Production Capacity - Huaxi Nonferrous is a comprehensive nonferrous metal mining enterprise with a complete industry chain from exploration to deep processing [1] - The company holds significant mineral resources, ranking first in Guangxi for tin, antimony, indium, zinc, lead, and silver reserves, with tin, antimony, and indium resources among the top globally [1] - The total ore resource at major mines is 89.591 million tons, with metal resources amounting to 4.4925 million tons [2] - The company has increased its resource reserves significantly, with a 93.59% growth in the cumulative resource amount at the Fozzi company mining area [2] Safety and Environmental Initiatives - The company has implemented technological advancements to enhance safety, including mechanization, automation, and intelligent operations [1] - No major production safety incidents occurred during the reporting period, demonstrating effective safety and environmental management [1] Research and Development - Huaxi Nonferrous has increased investment in the development of deep and new materials, achieving a 71% growth in the production of these materials [3] - Sales revenue from deep and new products exceeded 128 million yuan, marking an 86.84% year-on-year increase [3] - The company has obtained several patents, including one invention patent and three PCT patents during the reporting period [3] Project Development - The company is advancing several key projects, including the deep mining project which will increase ore production capacity from 330,000 tons/year to 450,000 tons/year [3] - The copper-zinc mining project in Nandan County has successfully transitioned from exploration to mining rights, expanding its production scale to 3.5 million tons/year [3] - Performance commitments related to mining rights and restructuring have been exceeded, with significant progress reported [3]

Group 1 - LME copper futures prices continued to rise, opening at $9,730 per ton and currently trading at $9,763.5 per ton, with an increase of 0.38% [1] - The highest price during the trading session reached $9,770 per ton, while the lowest dipped to $9,729.5 per ton [1] - On August 11, LME copper futures closed at $9,728.5 per ton, reflecting a decrease of 0.47% from the previous day [2] Group 2 - The electrolytic copper spot price ratio between Shanghai and London was reported at 8.11, indicating an import loss of 100.28 yuan per ton, improved from a loss of 245.04 yuan per ton the previous trading day [2] - The Chilean Copper Commission (Cochilco) reported that copper production at the Escondida mine in Chile decreased by 33% year-on-year in June, totaling 76,400 tons [2] - As of August 11, LME registered copper warrants totaled 143,725 tons, with canceled warrants at 11,975 tons, an increase of 900 tons; total copper inventory decreased by 150 tons to 155,700 tons [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices are expected to oscillate downward. Aluminum may experience pressure and oscillation. Zinc's market rebound is likely to be limited. Lead may face pressure. Nickel and stainless - steel are in a state of adjustment. Tin is in a state of high - level shock. Lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate around 70,000 yuan. Industrial silicon will return to fundamental - led trading. Polysilicon will oscillate within a wide range [1]. Group 3: Summary by Product Copper - **Price and Market Sentiment**: US trade policies and economic data have affected market sentiment. The US stock market decline has led to a return of copper prices. The market expects an 8 - month interest rate cut in the US, increasing the sentiment of interest - rate cut trading [1]. - **Domestic Supply**: Shanghai copper has significantly reduced its positions. The social inventory has increased due to the arrival of domestic and imported copper, with general consumption and tight raw material quotes [1]. - **Overseas Supply**: LME copper inventory is at 13.95 million tons. A mine in Chile has suspended operations, and Japan's Mitsubishi may cut production due to tight TC [1]. - **Trend**: Copper prices may face resistance at the 60 - day moving average. LME copper may oscillate down to $3,500 [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Alumina**: The operating capacity of alumina remains at a historical high, with an increase in total inventory and an oversupply situation. The price of bauxite overseas is firm, limiting the downward space [1]. - **Supply**: The operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum is around 4.4 million tons, with limited supply elasticity [1]. - **Demand**: The operating rate of domestic aluminum - processing leading enterprises has slightly decreased. Different aluminum products have different demand situations [1]. - **Inventory and Spot**: The social inventory of aluminum has increased, and the spot is at a discount. The weekly output of aluminum rods has increased for two consecutive weeks [1]. - **Trend**: Aluminum ingots may face pressure and oscillation. Pay attention to the support around 20,200 yuan. The demand for aluminum rods is not overly pessimistic [1]. Zinc - **Price and Market**: The zinc market has returned to the fundamental logic of increasing supply and weak demand. The main contract of Shanghai zinc has fallen by 2.47%, and LME zinc has fallen by 3.52% [1]. - **Spot and Supply**: LME zinc inventory has increased to 100,800 tons. The term structure of Shanghai zinc has flattened. The TC has risen in August, and domestic smelters have sufficient raw material inventory [1]. - **Consumption**: The terminal consumption has not improved fundamentally. The demand in August is weak, but there is a possibility of policy support during the "Golden September and Silver October" [1]. - **Trend**: The zinc market is mainly dominated by the fundamental situation of increasing supply and weak demand. Look for short - selling opportunities around 23,500 yuan/ton [1]. Lead - **Market and Price**: The domestic lead inventory has continued to rise, and the price has fallen. The US dollar index has rebounded, and LME lead has also declined [1]. - **Spot and Supply**: LME lead inventory has increased to 276,000 tons. Some domestic smelters have maintenance plans [1]. - **Consumption**: The consumption of some areas has improved, but the impact of rainfall and tariffs on demand needs further verification [1]. - **Trend**: Shanghai lead may oscillate between 16,600 - 17,300 yuan. Wait for inventory guidance [1]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market and Price**: The speculation of "anti - involution" has ended, and the market has returned to fundamentals. The trading volume of Shanghai nickel has decreased, while that of stainless steel has increased [1]. - **Supply and Inventory**: The upstream price support has weakened. The inventory of nickel - iron and stainless steel has decreased, but the overall inventory level is still high [1]. - **Trend**: Shanghai nickel is in the latter part of the rebound. Actively intervene in short positions [1]. Tin - **Market and Price**: The domestic and overseas tin prices have declined. The market is in a state of shock [1]. - **Supply**: Indonesia's tin production and sales have decreased. The market is concerned about the maintenance time of domestic large - scale factories [1]. - **Consumption**: The domestic inventory has increased, and LME tin inventory has also increased [1]. - **Trend**: Pay attention to the support of the 60 - day moving average. Hold high - level short positions [1]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market and Price**: The price of lithium carbonate has fallen, and the panic in the market has increased. The trading volume has decreased [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: The power orders have decreased, and the downstream battery factories are preparing for the peak season. The inventory has been transferred, and the downstream has increased replenishment [1]. - **Trend**: The price of lithium carbonate futures may fluctuate around 70,000 yuan. Adopt a short - term low - buying strategy [1]. Industrial Silicon - **Market and Price**: The price of industrial silicon has adjusted by 15%, and the market has returned to fundamental - led trading [1]. - **Supply and Inventory**: The cost of the silicon - coal process has increased. The supply pressure still exists, and the social inventory has increased [1]. - **Demand**: The demand for industrial silicon has increased marginally. The production of an organic silicon factory has resumed [1]. - **Trend**: The market will be dominated by fundamentals, and the price will oscillate and adjust [1]. Polysilicon - **Market and Price**: The price of polysilicon has significantly adjusted. The market is more focused on cost accounting, and the expectation of capacity clearance has decreased [1]. - **Supply and Inventory**: The production of polysilicon is expected to increase to 120,000 tons in August. The factory inventory has decreased, and the downstream has replenished in advance [1]. - **Demand**: The price of silicon wafers is expected to rise, and the battery - sheet orders have improved [1]. - **Trend**: The PS2509 main contract may oscillate widely between 46,000 - 47,000 yuan/ton [1]. Group 4: Recommended Strategies - Hold short positions of silver futures from 288,000 - 270,000 yuan or enter new short positions at 270,000 yuan. The long - term fundamental trend suppresses high - level silver prices [1]. - Adopt a short - selling strategy for Shanghai aluminum with a stop - loss at 21,000 yuan/ton [1].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bearish view with limited trading operability [1] - Aluminum: ★★★, suggesting a clear bearish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Alumina: ★☆☆, implying a slightly bearish view with limited trading operability [1] - Zinc: ★★★, showing a clear bearish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Tin: ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bearish view with limited trading operability [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★☆☆, suggesting a slightly bullish view with limited trading operability [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★, showing a clear bearish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★, indicating a clear bearish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] Core Views - The market is affected by various factors such as mine accidents, tariff policies, and seasonal demand changes. Different metals have different price trends and investment suggestions based on their supply - demand fundamentals and market sentiment [2][3][4] - Short - term and medium - term price trends vary for each metal, and investors should adjust their strategies according to market conditions and price levels [3][9][11] Summary by Metal Copper - Friday, Shanghai copper's MA60 moving average closed positive. There was a casualty accident at Chile's Codelco mine, and the market is evaluating Trump's tariff policy. Hold short positions [2] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum oscillated today, with a 20 - yuan spot discount in East China. Aluminum ingots continued to accumulate inventory, and the apparent consumption in the off - season decreased significantly year - on - year. Shanghai aluminum positions fell below 600,000 lots. Cast aluminum alloy followed Shanghai aluminum's fluctuations, with the Baotai spot price down 100 yuan to 19,500 yuan. The scrap aluminum market had tight supply, and the aluminum alloy profit was negative. Consider going long on AD and short on AL if the price difference on the futures market widens. Alumina's industry profit has recovered, with operating capacity reaching a new high and total inventory increasing. Trade alumina short near the recent high of 3,500 yuan [3] Zinc - The 08 contract entered the delivery month, and the futures - spot price difference became zero. The TC of zinc concentrate continued to rise in August, and smelters were actively operating. The term structure flattened. The demand side provided insufficient support for prices. In August, SMM's zinc social inventory decreased from an increase, and short - sellers were cautious about re - entering the market. Hold a wait - and - see attitude [4] Tin - Shanghai tin fell below the M40 moving average. The spot tin price was 265,500 yuan, with a 620 - yuan premium over the delivery - month contract. It is expected to fall towards the MA60 moving average and 262,000 yuan. Hold high - level short positions [8] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened lower and oscillated, performing better than other anti - involution varieties. The market trading was active. In August, the anti - involution adjustment was approaching the end, and the futures price was at a discount to the spot price. The total market inventory remained high, and traders were positive. The output of the mid - stream decreased by 3% month - on - month. Try short - term long positions with a light position [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures oscillated downward. Affected by the polysilicon position - limit policy and inspection notice, the market sentiment cooled down. The spot price continued to fall by 100 yuan/ton. Large factories may resume production in early August, and the supply pressure still exists. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon's intraday fluctuations intensified and finally closed sharply lower. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued an energy - saving inspection notice for polysilicon. The PS2509 main contract is affected by multiple factors and is likely to oscillate widely in the range of 46,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to position control [11]

智利法院驳回对智利国家铜业公司锂计划的诉讼。 ...

8月12日，五矿资源将披露2025财年中报。 本文源自：金融界 作者：行情君 7月31日，五矿资源(01208)盘中下跌5.0%，截至09:35，报3.8元/股，成交3279.56万元。 五矿资源有限公司的主营业务是在澳大利亚、刚果(金)和秘鲁开发并运营铜、锌及其他基本金属业务。 公司以中国五矿为主要股东，总部位于澳大利亚墨尔本，并在香港联合交易所上市，目标是在2020年前 发展成为全球顶尖的中型矿业公司之一。 截至2024年年报，五矿资源营业总收入321.98亿元、净利润11.64亿元。 ...