Core Insights - The article highlights the innovative risk management approach adopted by downstream enterprises in the Xinjiang cotton industry through structured OTC options, specifically the cumulative purchase options used by processing company X to manage procurement costs effectively in a volatile market [1][15]. Industry Overview - The cotton industry faces structural challenges, with cotton being a core raw material for the textile industry. Price fluctuations significantly impact garment manufacturing, foreign trade exports, and agricultural planting. Recent geopolitical conflicts, extreme weather, and competition from alternative fibers have exacerbated market volatility, putting pressure on the stability of enterprises, particularly those in Xinjiang, which accounts for over 90% of China's cotton production [2][3]. - In 2024, domestic cotton prices exhibited notable "double high and double low" fluctuations, with prices for Xinjiang 3128B cotton ranging from 15,200 to 16,800 yuan/ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase in price volatility of 1,600 yuan/ton [2]. - The industry is constrained by three major pressures: high costs, high inventory, and high import dependence, alongside two weaknesses: weak demand and weak profits. The cost of planting has risen due to a 12% increase in fertilizer and pesticide prices, with average costs exceeding 2,500 yuan per mu. Processing costs have also increased by 8% to 10% due to high energy prices [2][3][4][5]. Company Case Study - Company X, a processing enterprise in Xinjiang, relies on high-quality long-staple cotton for its core products. The company faces significant profit pressure due to rigid sales prices and elastic raw material costs, leading to gross margin fluctuations of 25% to 40% [6]. - To address procurement risks during price surges, X implemented a cumulative call option strategy, allowing for flexible and low-capital risk management. The option was designed to lock in procurement costs effectively [8][11]. - The cumulative call option was executed with an entry price of 13,490 yuan/ton and a daily contract volume of 30 tons over a 19-day observation period. The mechanism allowed for double contract volume if the settlement price fell below the trigger price [8][10]. Implementation and Results - Throughout the observation period, X closely monitored daily futures prices and flexibly triggered contract executions, ultimately securing procurement rights at a cost of 13,340 yuan/ton for 270 tons of CF505 futures contracts [11][12]. - The company successfully rolled over and adjusted its cumulative call option strategy, achieving an average procurement cost of 13,340 yuan/ton for a total of 2,520 tons, effectively smoothing the procurement cost curve [12][13]. - This case illustrates the effectiveness of customized OTC options in addressing the risk management challenges faced by the Xinjiang cotton industry, enhancing the ability of enterprises to hedge against market risks and stabilize operational profits [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The global cotton market in the 2025/26 season is expected to have a relatively loose supply - demand pattern. Although the supply - demand gap is expected to narrow compared to the previous year, the upward movement of cotton prices is difficult due to factors such as the expected high - yield in some major producing countries, geopolitical conflicts, and the expected slowdown of the global economy [3][8]. - In the international market, the center of the ICE US cotton futures price in the 2025/26 season is expected to move slightly higher than in the first half of the year, but the increase is limited, and it will generally operate within a range. Attention should be paid to macro and weather disturbances [8]. - In the domestic market, the bottom of the cotton price may have emerged, but the rebound of the cotton price is under pressure due to the high - yield expectation, and the upward space is relatively limited. The center of the Zhengzhou cotton futures price in the second half of the year may move slightly higher, but the space is expected to be limited [9]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Supply - **Global**: The USDA June report predicts that the global cotton output in the 2025/26 season will be 25.472 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 639,000 tons. However, the market believes that the USDA underestimates the global cotton output, and the actual output decline may be lower [3][38]. - **US**: The planting area of US cotton this year has decreased by about 10 - 15% year - on - year. As of June 17, the area of US cotton affected by D1 - D4 level drought accounted for 3%, a week - on - week decrease of 3 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6 percentage points. The good and excellent rate of US cotton is 48%, lower than the same period last year but higher than the performance during the harvest period last year. It is expected that the final output of US cotton this year will be basically the same as last year [3]. - **China**: Most of the new domestic cotton is in the budding and flowering stages, and the weather conditions are relatively suitable. It is a market consensus that the planting area has increased year - on - year, and the probability of a high - yield this year is relatively large [3]. 3.2 Demand - **Global**: The USDA June report predicts that the global cotton consumption in the 2025/26 season will be 25.639 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 263,000 tons. However, due to factors such as geopolitical conflicts and the expected slowdown of the global economic growth, the future uncertainty is still relatively large [4]. - **China**: From January to May, the cumulative retail sales of clothing, footwear, knitwear, and textiles in China were 613.84 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.3%. The cumulative retail sales of clothing products from January to May were 443.54 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.6%. The year - on - year increase in retail sales of textile and clothing products was lower than that of total social retail sales. As of the week of June 20, the comprehensive load of yarn was 53.88%, a year - on - year decrease of 1.24 percentage points; the load of pure cotton yarn mills was 52.66%, a year - on - year increase of 5.56 percentage points; the comprehensive load of staple fiber cloth was 49.28%, a year - on - year decrease of 1.42 percentage points; the load of pure cotton grey cloth was 45.6%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.74 percentage points [4]. 3.3 Import and Export - **US Cotton Exports**: As of June 13, the total signing volume of US cotton exports in the 2024/25 season was 2.731 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 188,000 tons. The signing volume of exports to China was 169,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.015 million tons. The proportion of US cotton exports to China was only about 6%, reaching a historical low [5]. - **China's Imports**: In May, China's cotton imports were 40,000 tons, a new low in recent years, a month - on - month decrease of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 220,000 tons. In May, the import volume of cotton yarn was 100,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 20,000 tons [5]. - **China's Exports**: In May 2025, the monthly export value of China's textile yarns, fabrics, and their products was 12.631 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.98%. From January to May, the cumulative export value of textile yarns, fabrics, and their products was 58.476 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was 13.578 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. The cumulative export from January to April was 58.195 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5% [5]. 3.4 Inventory - **China**: As of the end of June, China's commercial cotton inventory was 3.1269 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 331,800 tons; the industrial inventory was 930,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11,000 tons; the total was 4.057 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 342,800 tons and a year - on - year decrease of about 300,000 tons. As of the week of June 20, the comprehensive inventory of yarn was 26.14 days, a year - on - year decrease of 2.88 days; the comprehensive inventory of staple fiber cloth was 32.98 days, a year - on - year increase of 2.54 days. As of the week of June 21, the cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 27.38 days, a year - on - year increase of 5.2 days; the cotton yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 35.22 days, a year - on - year decrease of 10.88 days. As of the week of June 20, the cotton yarn inventory of weaving factories was 5.94 days, a year - on - year decrease of 0.34 days; the inventory of pure cotton grey cloth was 33.96 days, a year - on - year increase of 2.18 days [6]. 3.5 Price - The spot price of pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn has fallen more than the futures price of cotton yarn. On June 27, 2025, the closing price of cotton yarn was 20,105 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 390 yuan/ton and a decline rate of 1.90%. The price of pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn was 20,380 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1,920 yuan/ton and a decline rate of 8.61% [29][31]. - The basis of cotton yarn has fluctuated and declined. On June 27, 2025, the basis of cotton yarn was 275 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 1,530 yuan/ton [33][35].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives individual ratings for each commodity: - **Oils and Fats**: Oscillating [9] - **Protein Meal**: Oscillating [10] - **Corn and Starch**: Oscillating [11] - **Hogs**: Oscillating, with a long - term downward trend [12] - **Natural Rubber**: Oscillating [13] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillating [15] - **Cotton**: Oscillating weakly in the short - term [16] - **Sugar**: Oscillating weakly in the long - term, with a short - term rebound [18] - **Pulp**: Oscillating [19] - **Logs**: Oscillating weakly [20] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes multiple agricultural commodities, including their current market conditions, supply - demand relationships, and future outlooks. Overall, most commodities are expected to show oscillating trends, with some facing supply pressures and others influenced by seasonal factors and policy changes. For example, hogs are expected to face increasing supply pressure in the second half of the year, while oils and fats may return to range - bound trading [12][9]. 3. Summary by Commodity Oils and Fats - **Industry Information**: SPPOMA data shows that from June 1 - 20, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 2.5% month - on - month, and from June 1 - 15, it decreased by 4% month - on - month. Shipping agencies expect Malaysian palm oil exports from June 1 - 20 to increase by 10% - 17% month - on - month [9]. - **Logic**: Due to profit - taking and favorable weather in the US soybean growing areas, US soybeans and soybean oil fell last Friday. Domestically, oils and fats trended weakly. The EPA proposal's bullish sentiment may have been released, and there are still uncertainties. US soybean planting is progressing well, and domestic soybean imports are large, with rising soybean oil inventories. Malaysian palm oil production growth in June is limited, and the export outlook is optimistic. Domestic rapeseed oil inventories are high but slowly declining [9]. - **Outlook**: The bullish impact of the EPA's biodiesel proposal may have been priced in. Given the good growth of US soybeans, normal weather, and the palm oil production season, oils and fats are likely to return to range - bound trading, with increased downward pressure recently [9]. Protein Meal - **Industry Information**: On June 23, 2025, the average import soybean crushing profit in China was 76.65 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 24.87 yuan/ton or 24.5%, and a year - on - year increase of 155.24 yuan/ton or 288.98% [10]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the Rosario Grain Exchange raised Argentina's soybean production forecast by 3 million tons. The bullish sentiment from crude oil and the EPA has been released. US soybean planting and emergence are going well, with normal to slightly above - normal precipitation expected in the next two weeks. Freight costs are rising, and South American soybean premiums are increasing. Domestically, trading sentiment has declined, and the basis in East China has weakened. Soybean arrivals will increase in the next two months, and soybean meal inventories are seasonally rising, but there is no immediate pressure. The demand for soybean meal is expected to be stable or increase slightly, but there may be a supply shortage in the fourth quarter [10]. - **Outlook**: US soybeans are expected to trade in a range due to bullish factors and lower - than - expected good - quality rates. Domestically, soybean meal supply and demand are both increasing, and the price is expected to have a short - term correction. Oil mills can sell on rallies, and downstream enterprises can buy basis contracts or fix prices at low levels [10]. Corn and Starch - **Industry Information**: According to Mysteel, the FOB price at Jinzhou Port is 2380 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. The domestic average corn price is 2422 yuan/ton, an increase of 7 yuan/ton [11]. - **Logic**: Domestic corn prices are stable with a slight increase. In North China, some deep - processing enterprises lowered their purchase prices due to increased arrivals, while other regions were stable to strong. Wheat harvesting is over, and traders are selling more corn. Corn feed inventories are decreasing, indicating weak replenishment demand. South Port inventories are temporarily increasing due to weather but are expected to decline. Imported grains are tightening, and inventory reduction is expected in the 24/25 season [11]. - **Outlook**: Driven by the expected supply - demand gap, the price is expected to oscillate, but attention should be paid to the potential negative impact of import auctions [11]. Hogs - **Industry Information**: On June 23, the price of Henan's externally - bred hogs was 14.72 yuan/kg, a 1.1% increase from the previous day. The closing price of the active hog futures contract was 13980 yuan/ton, a 0.6% increase [12]. - **Logic**: In the short term, the proportion of large hogs for sale is increasing, and the average weight is decreasing. In the medium term, based on the increase in new - born piglets from January to May 2025, the number of hogs for sale is expected to increase in the second half of the year. In the long term, the production capacity remains high, and the inventory of breeding sows is increasing. The profit of self - breeding and self - raising is close to the break - even point. Demand is weak due to high temperatures, and hog weights are decreasing. In June, hog farmers started to reduce inventory, but there is resistance to low prices, and the selling rhythm is inconsistent. In the third quarter, there are expectations for peak consumption seasons. In the long term, the hog price is in a downward cycle [12]. - **Outlook**: As hog farmers reduce inventory and it is the off - season for consumption, the supply - demand balance is loose. If inventory reduction is sufficient, the supply pressure may ease, but the number of hogs for sale is expected to increase in the second half of the year [12]. Natural Rubber - **Industry Information**: On June 23, the price of RMB - denominated Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 13820 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan. The price of domestic whole - milk old rubber was 13950 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan [13]. - **Logic**: Rubber prices oscillated within a range of about 200 yuan. Although the overall commodity market corrected, rubber prices were supported by raw materials. Most Asian rubber - producing areas are in the rainy season, and raw material prices have rebounded slightly. Supply is limited due to rain and the early stage of tapping. Some tire enterprises' production has recovered, and inventory pressure has eased slightly, but the demand outlook is still weak [13]. - **Outlook**: External events are currently the main factor affecting the market, and the duration is uncertain. Rubber prices may maintain a strong - side oscillation due to the low non - standard basis [13]. Synthetic Rubber - **Industry Information**: The spot price of butadiene rubber from two major suppliers in Shandong was 11750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan [15]. - **Logic**: With the decline in oil prices and butadiene prices, the market trended weakly. The market is mainly influenced by crude oil and the chemical sector. The overall operating rate has dropped to the lowest level since May, but inventories have increased slightly, indicating weak downstream demand. Butadiene prices oscillated in a small range last week, with a slight increase in the average weekly price. Domestic production has increased slightly, and port inventories have risen, but downstream buying is cautious [15]. - **Outlook**: Geopolitical conflicts may last at least one week, and the market may be affected. Although the fundamental downward trend remains, the market may oscillate strongly in the short term [15]. Cotton - **Industry Information**: As of June 23, the number of registered cotton warehouse receipts in the 24/25 season was 10493. The closing price of Zhengzhou Cotton 09 was 13465 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton [16]. - **Logic**: In the 25/26 season, China's cotton production is expected to increase, and other major producing countries such as India and Brazil also have production growth expectations. The US cotton production depends on the third - quarter weather. The downstream market has entered the off - season, with increasing textile inventories and slower production. Cotton commercial inventories have decreased faster than in previous years, and there are concerns about tight inventories at the end of the season, supporting the basis. However, the upward momentum is weak due to weak demand and new - crop production expectations [16]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, cotton prices are expected to oscillate between 13000 - 13800 yuan/ton. There may be opportunities for reverse spreads [16]. Sugar - **Industry Information**: As of June 23, the closing price of Zhengzhou Sugar 09 was 5721 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan/ton [18]. - **Logic**: The sugar market fundamentals have not changed much. The external market has priced in the expected oversupply in the new season, and the prices of domestic and foreign futures have declined. The Brazilian real has strengthened against the US dollar, and strong crude oil prices support the sugar price. Domestically, the 24/25 sugar production season has ended, and the sales rate is high, with lower inventories than last year. However, there are expectations of concentrated sugar imports. Internationally, Brazil, India, and Thailand are expected to increase production in the new season [18]. - **Outlook**: In the long term, due to the expected oversupply in the new season, sugar prices are expected to decline. In the short term, there may be a rebound [18]. Pulp - **Industry Information**: According to Longzhong Information, the previous trading day, the price of Russian softwood pulp in Shandong was 5300 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan; the price of Marubeni was 5700 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan; and the price of Arauco was 6050 yuan/ton, unchanged [19]. - **Logic**: Pulp futures prices rose significantly yesterday, especially for far - month contracts, mainly due to the suspension of new warehouse receipts for bleached needle - leaf pulp. However, the spot market followed the increase only slightly. Fundamentally, pulp imports remain high, and prices are still falling. Demand is in the off - season, and downstream paper enterprises' inventories are increasing, with weak procurement demand. The US dollar price is decreasing, and the current price is not attractive for large - scale inventory building. Although the reduction in deliverable varieties may support the futures price, the supply - demand situation is still loose [19]. - **Outlook**: Due to weak supply - demand fundamentals and the impact of changes in deliverable rules, pulp futures are expected to oscillate. The reasonable valuation range for the 09 contract is 5200 - 5500 yuan/ton [19]. Logs - **Industry Information**: The spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu is 760 yuan/cubic meter, and in Shandong, it is 750 yuan/cubic meter [20]. - **Logic**: The log futures market has provided risk - free arbitrage opportunities, leading to increased purchases by arbitrageurs and stronger reluctance to sell among traders, driving up spot prices. The market is currently focused on the delivery logic. Near - month contracts are stable due to delivery support, while far - month contracts are returning to fundamentals. The trading volume of the 2507 contract is increasing, and the ratio of virtual to real positions is high, leading to increased volatility [20]. - **Outlook**: The supply pressure of logs is expected to ease at the end of June or early July. The demand is in the off - season from June to August. Although the spot price is supported by the clearance of old stocks, the market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [20].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the second half of 2025, both domestic and international cotton markets currently lack obvious upward drivers and are likely to maintain a volatile trend [2][3][68] - It is recommended to pay attention to the reverse spread opportunities under the expectation of a looser domestic supply after October, specifically the Zhengzhou Cotton Futures 11 - 1 reverse spread [3][70] Group 3: Summary of Each Section 2025 H1 Cotton Futures Market Review - In H1 2025, Zhengzhou Cotton Futures mainly showed a volatile trend, with fluctuations mainly affected by the sentiment of the domestic financial market driven by macro - factors. There was a rebound before the Spring Festival, a sharp decline after the Tomb - Sweeping Festival due to the US tariff policy, and another rebound after the China - US peace talks in May [6] 2025 H2 Global Cotton Supply - Demand Situation Analysis Global Cotton Supply - In H2 2025, global cotton supply is expected to remain abundant. The bumper harvests of Brazilian and Australian cotton have laid the foundation for a loose supply. The market will mainly focus on US cotton production and also consider other major producing countries. Only when the combined production reduction of major producing countries exceeds expectations will the global supply tighten in H1 2026 [7][8][9] - **Brazil**: In 2025, Brazilian cotton production continued to increase, but the rising cost may slow down the area growth in 2026. The export situation in H2 2025 will affect farmers' planting willingness in 2026 [12][13][15] - **US**: The area and yield of US cotton in the 2025/26 season are uncertain. It is necessary to wait for the area outlook report at the end of June and pay attention to the weather from June to August. If the yield is flat year - on - year, the total supply will increase, and exports are expected to rebound. The export is also affected by economic and trade negotiations [20][23][25] - **Other Major Producing Countries**: The cotton production of India, Pakistan, Turkey, and Australia in the 2025/26 season is uncertain. If the production decreases by more than 400,000 tons year - on - year as estimated by USDA, it will benefit the exports of Brazil and the US, mainly in H1 2026 [30][32] Global Cotton Demand - From the macro - environment to micro - data, there is no optimistic outlook for global cotton demand. The instability of the global economy and international trade has a negative impact on cotton demand. The terminal's replenishment demand is not optimistic, and the direct import demand mainly depends on China [35][37][39] 2025 H2 China Cotton Market Supply - Demand Analysis China Cotton Supply - The market is worried that the domestic cotton inventory will be tight at the end of the 2024/25 season, but the inventory reduction speed may slow down from June to September. The new - year cotton production in Xinjiang is expected to remain high, and the national cotton area is also expected to increase [47][50][51] China Cotton Consumption - Since the 2024/25 season, the apparent consumption of domestic cotton has been better than expected. As long as the cotton price remains low, the demand in H2 2025 will remain stable. The terminal demand for textile and clothing has slowed down in terms of domestic sales and changed in terms of exports. The direct demand for cotton has increased due to capacity expansion and low prices [54][62][64]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the main contract of Zhengzhou Cotton 2509 rose by about 0.04%, and the cotton yarn futures 2509 contract rose by about 0.1%. The consumption off - season in the textile industry is evident, with slow inventory clearance and minor changes in the old - crop fundamentals, resulting in short - term price fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the growth of new - season cotton in major producing areas due to the risk of high - temperature heat damage [7]. - Future trading should focus on factors such as changes in foreign cotton prices, macro factors, trade policies, and weather [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary - **Market Trend**: This week, the main contract of Zhengzhou Cotton 2509 rose by about 0.04%, and the cotton yarn futures 2509 contract rose by about 0.1% [7]. - **International Situation**: The sowing progress of U.S. cotton lags behind the same period in previous years, and the crop rating has been downgraded, but the recent weather conditions in major producing areas are favorable [7]. - **Domestic Situation**: The textile industry is in a consumption off - season. New orders are poor, with limited summer order increments, mostly short - term and small - scale. Some enterprises have reduced shifts, and the overall operating rate is slowly declining. Some spinning enterprises are accumulating inventory, with poor profit margins, leading to cautious raw material procurement [7]. - **Future Outlook**: In the short term, prices will fluctuate. There is a risk of high - temperature heat damage to cotton in full bloom in most parts of Xinjiang. Attention should be paid to the growth of new - season cotton in major producing areas [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **U.S. Cotton Market**: This week, the price of the U.S. cotton December contract fell by about 1.89%. As of June 10, 2025, the non - commercial long - position of ICE No. 2 cotton decreased by 0.35% month - on - month, the non - commercial short - position increased by 4.40% month - on - month, and the net position decreased by 13.74% month - on - month [11]. - **U.S. Cotton Export**: For the week ending June 5, the net increase in U.S. cotton export sales was 60,200 bales, a 45% decrease from the previous week and a 51% decrease from the average of the previous four weeks [18]. - **International Cotton Spot Price**: As of June 17, 2025, the international cotton spot price index was 78.75 cents per pound, a 0.77% increase from the previous week [18]. - **Futures Market**: The main contract of Zhengzhou Cotton 2509 rose by about 0.04%, and the cotton yarn futures 2509 contract rose by about 0.1%. As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 40,263, and that in cotton yarn futures was - 148 lots. The cotton futures warehouse receipts were 10,532 lots, and the cotton yarn futures warehouse receipts were 2 lots [22][29][35]. - **Futures and Spot Price Difference**: This week, the price difference between Zhengzhou Cotton 9 - 1 contracts was 147 yuan per ton, and the price difference between cotton 3128B and cotton yarn C32S spot prices was 5,421 yuan per ton [39]. - **Spot Market**: As of June 20, 2025, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 14,879 yuan per ton. The spot price index of Chinese cotton yarn C32S was 20,300 yuan per ton. As of June 12, 2025, CY index: OEC10s was 14,540 yuan per ton, and CY index: JC40 was 23,440 yuan per ton [43][50]. - **Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost**: As of June 17, 2025, the 1% quota port pick - up price of the imported cotton price index (FC Index): M decreased by 0.64% month - on - month, and the sliding - scale duty port pick - up price decreased by 0.36% month - on - month. As of June 18, 2025, the port pick - up prices of imported cotton yarn price index (FCY Index) for C32S, C21S, and JC32S remained unchanged month - on - month [55]. - **Imported Cotton Cost and Profit**: As of June 18, 2025, the cost profit of the imported cotton sliding - scale duty port pick - up price (M) was 497 yuan per ton, and that of the imported cotton quota port pick - up price (1%) was 1,253 yuan per ton [56]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Supply Side - Commercial Cotton Inventory**: As of May, the total national commercial cotton inventory was 3.4587 million tons, a 16.71% decrease from the previous month and an 8.36% decrease from the same period last year. As of the end of May, the in - stock industrial cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 941,100 tons, a decrease of 13,100 tons from the previous month [61]. - **Supply Side - Imported Cotton Volume**: In May 2025, China imported about 40,000 tons of cotton, a decrease of about 20,000 tons from the previous month and an 86.3% decrease from the same period last year. From September 2024 to May 2025, China imported about 920,000 tons of cotton. In May 2025, China's cotton yarn imports were 100,000 tons, a 14.5% decrease from the same period last year and a 16.67% decrease from the previous month. From January to May 2025, the cumulative imported cotton yarn was 560,000 tons, a 15.8% decrease from the same period last year [65]. - **Mid - end Industry - Demand Side**: As of the end of May, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 22.34 days, an increase of 1.36 days from the previous month, and the grey cloth inventory was 31.2 days, an increase of 1.72 days from the previous month [69]. - **Terminal Consumption - Demand Side**: From January to May 2025, the cumulative export of textile and clothing was 838.33 billion yuan, a 2.1% increase from the same period last year. In May 2025, the export of textile and clothing was 188.84 billion yuan, a 0.2% increase from the same period last year. As of May 2025, the cumulative retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, needles, and textiles were 613.8 billion yuan, a 3.3% increase from the same period last year [73][75]. 3.4 Options and Stock - Related Markets - **Options Market**: This week, the implied volatility of at - the - money options for cotton was analyzed, but specific data was not provided [77]. - **Stock Market - Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd.**: The price - earnings ratio trend of Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd. was analyzed, but specific data was not provided [82].

Core Viewpoint - Zheng cotton is experiencing a volatile adjustment, with a focus on macroeconomic factors and the upcoming U.S. cotton planting report [1] Market Overview - The latest price index for 328-grade cotton is 14,891 yuan/ton, an increase of 34 yuan/ton from the previous period [1] - The planting area for cotton is stable with an expected increase in new cotton production [1] - The cotton yarn market remains sluggish, with textile enterprises reducing prices to sell, and downstream orders showing no improvement [1] Production and Inventory - In May, cotton yarn production increased by 3% year-on-year to 1.951 million tons, while fabric production decreased by 3.3% to 2.67 billion meters [1] - Cumulative yarn production from January to May reached 9.368 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%, while cumulative fabric production was 12.63 billion meters, a slight increase of 0.2% [1] - Chemical fiber production in May rose by 5.2% year-on-year to 7.349 million tons [1] International Market Dynamics - The U.S. cotton planting progress is at 85%, down from 89% year-on-year, with a good quality rate of 48%, compared to 54% last year [1] - The USDA's June supply and demand report adjusted U.S. cotton exports for the 2024/25 season to 2.5 million tons, with ending stocks reduced to 960,000 tons [1] - The CFTC fund's net positions are low, indicating strong support for ICE cotton prices [1] Macroeconomic Factors - The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates for the fourth consecutive time, contributing to a significant drop in overnight ICE cotton prices [1] - Short-term fundamentals are limited, leading to narrow fluctuations in Zheng cotton prices, with a need to monitor macroeconomic changes [1]

库存速度缓慢，基本面驱动力不足，以震荡走势为主，关注主产区新季棉花生长情况。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 棉花(纱)产业日报 2025-06-19 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑棉主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 13525 | -15 棉纱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 19770 | -70 | | | 棉花期货前20名净持仓(手) | -39243 | 22 棉纱期货前20名净持仓(手) | -88 | 179 | | | 主力合约持仓量:棉花(日,手) | 525918 ...

Group 1 - The global cotton market is entering a new production cycle, with major cotton-producing countries like China, Brazil, and Australia expected to increase their output [1] - China's cotton planting area is projected to reach 44.823 million acres by 2025, with Xinjiang's area growing by 3.3% year-on-year, benefiting from favorable weather conditions [1] - Domestic cotton market shows a nuanced situation, with import tariffs closing the import window, leading some companies to use domestic cotton, resulting in a reduction of cotton inventory and a tightening of high-grade cotton supply [1] Group 2 - Concerns about future cotton prices persist, with the market characterized by "large supply, stable consumption, strong support, and weak driving forces," leading to expectations of price fluctuations [2] - The new cotton basis and purchase prices are expected to be lower than in 2024, with long-term high basis levels likely unsustainable due to a global supply exceeding demand [2] Group 3 - The cotton textile industry is facing renewed pressure due to declining cotton prices and insufficient terminal demand, leading to a drop in average profit margins and effective demand [4] - Revenue and profit in the industry have fallen to their lowest levels in over a decade, with revenues for 2023-2024 projected to shrink to below one trillion yuan and total profits at only 21.7 billion yuan [4] - The operating profit margin has decreased from 3.09% in 2022 to 1.82% in the first four months of 2025, with the loss ratio expanding to 28.1%, marking a historical high [4]

Core Viewpoint - The global cotton market is expected to experience a significant increase in production, with major producing regions such as China, Brazil, and Australia anticipating higher yields. However, the cotton price may face downward pressure as new crops are harvested in October [1][2]. Group 1: Cotton Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic cotton basis remains strong, reflecting structural supply-demand contradictions, particularly a shortage of high-grade cotton. The increase in domestic cotton usage is driven by tariff hikes that have forced some enterprises to switch to local cotton [3][4]. - The current cotton inventory is continuously depleting, leading to a marginal improvement in the cotton market fundamentals. However, the demand remains weak, particularly during the textile off-season from June to September, which could put pressure on the cotton basis [3][4]. Group 2: Industry Challenges and Profitability - The cotton textile industry is facing significant challenges, including persistently low average profit margins and insufficient effective demand. This has led to an accelerated industry reshuffle, with the scale of cotton textile revenue expected to shrink to below one trillion yuan, marking a significant decline from previous years [5][6]. - The profit margin for large-scale cotton textile enterprises has decreased from 3.09% in 2022 to 1.82% in the first four months of 2025, indicating a continuous downward trend and the highest loss ratio in the industry [6][7]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Development Initiatives - Despite the current challenges, the cotton textile industry has a solid foundation and potential for long-term growth. The industry is encouraged to optimize its structure, enhance technological innovation, and focus on green development to maintain confidence and improve its image [7]. - The industry is expected to further align with macro policies, develop new productive forces, and deepen industrial transformation to promote high-quality development while preventing unhealthy competition [7].

Core Viewpoint - The global cotton market is expected to experience a significant increase in production, with major producing regions such as China, Brazil, and Australia anticipating higher yields [1]. Domestic Market - Currently, the domestic cotton basis remains strong, with high-grade cotton in short supply. The increase in tariffs has forced some companies to switch to domestic cotton, leading to a continuous reduction in cotton inventory and a marginal improvement in the fundamentals. Experts believe that with the new crop coming in October, the cotton basis is likely to return, putting pressure on cotton prices [2][4]. - The cotton textile industry is facing severe challenges due to the dual pressures of raw material supply shocks and insufficient end demand. The first half of the year has seen significant pressure on the industry, leading to increased polarization among companies [3][8]. Global Cotton Production - The global cotton production is set to increase significantly, with new crop prices and basis expected to be lower than last year. The USDA balance sheet indicates a slight oversupply compared to demand, with external prices lower than U.S. planting costs but higher than Brazilian costs. Macro uncertainties such as tariffs and dollar credit will be major disruptive factors [6][8]. Industry Challenges - The cotton spinning industry is currently facing a prolonged low average profit margin, insufficient end demand, and complex international conditions, leading to an accelerated industry reshuffle. The revenue of large-scale cotton spinning enterprises is expected to shrink to below one trillion yuan, with their share of the textile industry dropping below 20%, a significant decline from the peak period in 2016 [8][9]. - The operating profit margin of large-scale cotton spinning enterprises has been continuously declining, with projections showing a drop from 3.09% in 2022 to 1.82% in early 2025, marking a new low [9][10]. - The loss ratio among large-scale cotton spinning enterprises has further expanded, reaching 28.1% in early 2025, up from 22.5% in 2024, indicating a record high for industry losses [10]. Future Outlook - Despite the various external risks and challenges, the cotton spinning industry still possesses a solid foundation, numerous advantages, and significant potential for growth. The long-term positive trend of the industry is expected to remain unchanged. The industry aims to leverage macro policies, develop new productive forces, deepen industrial transformation, and promote high-quality development while enhancing self-discipline to prevent vicious competition [10].