Core Insights - In 2025, China's cotton industry reported significant growth, with a planting area of 4,468.7 million mu, an increase of 211.3 million mu or 5.0% from the previous year, and a total production of 6.641 million tons, up 477,000 tons or 7.7% from 2024 [1] Group 1: Industry Growth and Policies - The dual growth in cotton planting area and yield is attributed to various factors, indicating a new development phase for the industry [1] - The cotton price reform policy initiated in 2014 has been crucial in ensuring stable returns for cotton growers, particularly in Xinjiang, where cotton planting area continues to increase [1] - In 2025, Xinjiang's cotton planting area showed slight growth, with favorable weather conditions contributing to record high yields [1] Group 2: Technological Advancements and Quality Improvement - Hebei Guoxin Cotton Home Textile Co., Ltd. focuses on new variety breeding and improving planting techniques, achieving a profit of 400 yuan per mu in 2025 due to stable prices and efficient production methods [2] - The implementation of a quality traceability subsidy policy since 2021 has led to significant improvements in cotton quality, with notable increases in length, strength, and maturity indicators compared to 2019 [2] Group 3: Financial Support and Challenges - The "Cotton e-loan" initiative has provided over 30 billion yuan in loans since its launch, benefiting more than 200,000 cotton farmers and significantly reducing interest expenses [3] - Despite financial support, challenges remain, including insufficient high-quality cotton supply and rising production costs, which hinder the industry's overall competitiveness [4] Group 4: Sustainable Development Initiatives - The industry consensus is shifting towards quality and sustainable development, with the China Cotton Association leading initiatives that certified 1.22 million mu of cotton fields and issued 13,000 certificates for sustainable cotton [4] - Collaborations with major brands have resulted in the issuance of 700,000 sustainable cotton labels, enhancing market recognition of domestic sustainable cotton products [4][5]

Core Insights - In 2025, China's cotton industry reported significant growth, with a planting area of 4,468.7 million mu, an increase of 211.3 million mu or 5.0% from the previous year, and a total cotton production of 6.641 million tons, up by 477,000 tons or 7.7% from 2024 [1] Group 1: Industry Growth and Policies - The dual growth in cotton planting area and yield is attributed to various factors, indicating a new development phase for the industry [1] - The cotton price reform pilot initiated in 2014 has ensured basic profitability for cotton growers, particularly in Xinjiang, where cotton planting area continues to increase despite fluctuations in other crops [1] - In 2025, Xinjiang's cotton planting area showed slight growth, with favorable weather conditions leading to record high yields [1] Group 2: Technological Advancements and Quality Improvement - Hebei Guoxin Pure Cotton Home Textile Co., Ltd. focuses on new variety breeding and planting technology to enhance yield while maintaining stable farm area [2] - The implementation of a quality traceability subsidy policy since 2021 has improved cotton quality in Xinjiang, with significant increases in length, strength, maturity, and fineness indicators compared to 2019 [2] Group 3: Financial Support and Market Dynamics - Xinjiang cotton now accounts for over 90% of the national total, with initiatives to restore inland cotton production through specialized storage and inspection trials [3] - The "Cotton e-loan" financial product has provided over 30 billion yuan in loans since its launch, benefiting over 200,000 cotton farmers and significantly reducing interest expenses compared to traditional loans [3] Group 4: Challenges and Sustainability Initiatives - The industry faces challenges such as insufficient high-quality cotton supply and rising production costs, which hinder competitiveness [4] - The China Cotton Association is promoting sustainable development projects, with 1.22 million mu of cotton fields certified and partnerships established with brands to enhance the market value of sustainable cotton products [4][5]

Group 1 - The core concept of "supervised cotton" is introduced, which is a type of cotton that is regulated by the state and must be stored in designated warehouses and undergo comprehensive inspections [3] - Supervised cotton provides benefits to cotton farmers by ensuring accurate subsidies and protecting them from exploitation [3] - For enterprises, supervised cotton allows for a single inspection to be valid throughout the supply chain, reducing logistics and time costs [3] Group 2 - The market benefits from supervised cotton as it helps eliminate counterfeit products, ensuring fairer transactions [3] - Supervised cotton also lowers credit risks for banks, facilitating easier financing for companies [3] - The application of supervised cotton is widespread, being used in everyday cotton clothing, bedding products, industrial textiles, and medical gauze [3]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The international cotton market has limited driving forces. The Fed is likely to keep rates unchanged in January. The global cotton supply - demand gap is small, and the US cotton market is expected to fluctuate. [10] - The domestic cotton market has strong expectations. The reduction of cotton planting area in Xinjiang in 2026 is certain, leading to a strong expectation of lower production. The demand side is resilient, and there is positive sentiment at the macro - level. The Zhengzhou cotton futures price has strong support below, and there may be an upward space in the medium - to - long - term. [11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - New - year cotton planting area is expected to decline, with strong sentiment. In Xinjiang, measures to reduce cotton planting area are being implemented. [6] - Pima cotton processing volume increased by about 1.1 million tons year - on - year. As of December 25, 2025, the processing volume was 6.697 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.211 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.09 million tons. [39][41] - National cotton inspection volume increased. As of December 30, 2025, Xinjiang's inspection volume was 6.1358 million tons, and the national volume was 6.3243 million tons. [43] - Pima cotton sales rate and sales volume are much higher than the same period last year. As of December 25, 2025, the sales volume was 3.731 million tons, and the sales rate was 50.7%. [46][47] 3.2 Demand - US clothing retail remains strong. In October, the monthly retail sales of US clothing and clothing accessories were 27.128 billion US dollars, with a month - on - month increase of 0.9% and a year - on - year increase of 5.7%. [50][52] - The operating rates of textile enterprises in Vietnam, India, and Pakistan decreased or remained flat. As of December 26, Vietnam's operating rate was 61.9%, India's was 66.9%, and Pakistan's was 65.5%. [54] - In November in China, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, knitwear, and textiles were 154.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%. The cumulative retail sales from January to November were 1.3597 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%. [7][57] - The comprehensive yarn load decreased week - on - week. As of the week of December 26, the comprehensive yarn load was 50.1%, and the pure - cotton yarn mill load was 46.86%. [7][58] - The opening load of the grey fabric end decreased slightly, with a smaller decline than the yarn end. As of the week of December 26, the comprehensive short - fiber fabric load was 51.26%, and the pure - cotton grey fabric load was 48.66%. [7][59] 3.3 Import and Export - In the 2025/26 season, the US cotton export contract volume is still low year - on - year. As of December 11, 2025, the total US cotton export contract volume was 1.445 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.243 million tons. [8][60] - In November, the export value of China's textile yarns, fabrics, and related products was 12.276 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 0.98%. The cumulative export from January to November was 130.01 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%. [8][64] - In November, the export value of China's clothing and clothing accessories was 11.594 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 10.93%. The cumulative export from January to November was 137.79 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 4.4%. [8][66] - In November, China imported 120,000 tons of cotton, a month - on - month increase of 30,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 10,000 tons. [8][70] - In November, China imported 150,000 tons of cotton yarn, a slight month - on - month increase. [75] - The import cotton price index strengthened month - on - month. As of December 31, 2025, the price index of medium - grade imported cotton with a 1% quota was 12,922 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 59 yuan. [79][81] 3.4 Inventory - US clothing retail inventory increased month - on - month, while wholesaler inventory decreased month - on - month. In September 2025, the retail inventory was 58.488 billion US dollars, and the wholesaler inventory was 28.229 billion US dollars. [82][84] - Yarn comprehensive inventory decreased, and grey fabric inventory accumulated. As of the week of December 26, the yarn comprehensive inventory was 27.66 days, and the short - fiber fabric comprehensive inventory was 31.92 days. [85][86] - Spinning enterprises' raw material inventory decreased slightly, and finished - product inventory decreased significantly. As of the week of December 26, the spinning enterprises' cotton inventory was 31.94 days, and the cotton yarn inventory was 27.66 days. [88] - Weaving factories' raw material and finished - product inventory increased month - on - month. As of the week of December 26, the weaving factories' cotton yarn inventory was 6.92 days, and the pure - cotton grey fabric inventory was 35.06 days. [89] - China's domestic cotton commercial inventory increased by 0.66 million tons month - on - month, basically the same year - on - year. As of December 15, 2025, the commercial inventory was 5.349 million tons. [90][92] - The number of cotton warehouse receipts is higher than the same period last year. As of December 30, 2025, the total number of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts was 9,185. [97][99] 3.5 Price - The spot price of cotton moved up. As of December 30, 2025, the national average price was 15,543 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 4.34%. [18][22] - The 1 - 5 spread of cotton strengthened. As of December 31, 2025, the 1 - 5 spread was 70 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 45 yuan. [27][29] - The price difference between domestic and foreign cotton under a 1% tariff fluctuated and strengthened. As of December 30, 2025, the price difference was 2,621 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 605 yuan. [30][31] - The increase in the cotton yarn futures price was lower than that of the cotton futures price. As of December 31, 2025, the closing price of cotton yarn futures was 20,585 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 2.69%. [33][34] - The cotton yarn basis gradually converged. As of December 31, 2025, the basis was 555 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 210 yuan. [35][36] 3.6 Option - The historical volatility of cotton options increased significantly. [100]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - ICE cotton futures are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation in the short term due to weak export sales data and a lack of upward drivers [5][16]. - Domestic cotton futures and spot prices are stable. Zhengzhou cotton futures are likely to maintain a slightly stronger oscillatory trend in the short term, but the upside space may be limited. Attention should be paid to market sentiment, downstream profits, and import profits of out - of - quota cotton [2][16]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data - **ICE Cotton Main - continuous Contract**: Open price 64.46 cents/pound, high 64.80 cents/pound, low 63.68 cents/pound, close 64.01 cents/pound, down 0.45 cents/pound, down 0.70%, volume 75,909 lots, volume change - 7,304 lots, open interest 177,412 lots, open interest change - 2,875 lots [5]. - **Zhengzhou Cotton Main - continuous Contract**: Open price 14,535 yuan/ton, high 14,640 yuan/ton, low 14,390 yuan/ton, close 14,585 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton, up 0.34%, volume 1,147,629 lots, volume change - 600,223 lots, open interest 860,725 lots, open interest change - 43,135 lots [5]. - **Cotton Yarn Main - continuous Contract**: Open price 20,595 yuan/ton, high 20,650 yuan/ton, low 20,480 yuan/ton, close 20,585 yuan/ton, unchanged, volume 36,697 lots, volume change - 23,407 lots, open interest 19,590 lots, open interest change - 3,612 lots [5]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 International Cotton Situation - **ICE Cotton**: Initial rebound was weak, failed to break through 65 cents/pound, and declined in the second half of the week due to a stronger US dollar and poor weekly export sales data [5]. - **US Cotton Weekly Export Sales Data**: As of the week ending December 18, 2025/26 US upland cotton weekly signing was 41,400 tons, a 40% week - on - week decrease and a 2% decrease from the four - week average. Weekly shipments were 33,300 tons, a 9% week - on - week increase and a 23% increase from the four - week average. The total signed and sold volume of US upland and Pima cotton in the 2025/26 season was 1.4863 million tons, accounting for 57% of the annual forecast export volume; the cumulative export shipments were 640,000 tons, accounting for 43% of the total annual signed volume [6]. - **Other Cotton - producing and Consuming Countries**: - **India**: The government resumed imposing an 11% import tariff on cotton from January 1, 2026. There are concerns about reduced yarn production due to supply shortages and increased import costs [6]. - **Brazil**: As of December 27, the planting progress of the 2025/26 cotton season was 25.1%, an 8.2 - percentage - point increase from the previous period, 0.1 percentage point slower year - on - year, and 0.3 percentage point slower than the three - year average [7]. - **Pakistan**: The domestic cotton market has limited trading. The daily arrival of seed cotton has dropped below 1,550 tons, and most ginneries have completed their processing for the year. The expected total production of new cotton is 1.085 - 1.124 million tons [7]. - **Textile Industry Startup Rates in Southeast Asia**: As of the week ending December 26, the startup rates of textile enterprises were 66.9% in India, 61.9% in Vietnam, and 65.5% in Pakistan [8]. 3.2.2 Domestic Cotton Situation - **Cotton Prices and Transactions**: Domestic cotton futures and spot prices were stable in the week ending January 2. Early in the week, there were some transactions of fixed - price old cotton from the 2023/24 season and some low - basis new offers, but subsequent transactions were light. The spot sales basis changed little, with mainly rigid - demand transactions [9][10]. - **Cotton Warehouse Receipts**: As of December 31, there were 5,712 registered warehouse receipts and 3,527 forecast warehouse receipts of No. 1 cotton, totaling 9,239 lots, equivalent to 388,038 tons [10]. - **Textile Enterprises**: The situation of textile enterprises is not optimistic. The cotton yarn market has average trading. Due to weak downstream demand, the increase in raw material costs has squeezed the profits of yarn mills. Some spinning mills have reduced their startup rates, and the fabric market has few inquiries [11]. 3.3 Basic Data Charts The report provides charts on cotton sales progress, commercial inventory, spinning mills' cotton inventory, weaving mills' yarn inventory, spinning mills' cotton yarn inventory, cotton cloth enterprises' cotton cloth inventory, yarn mills' startup rates, cotton cloth enterprises' startup rates, cotton yarn profits, cotton cloth profits, cotton 5 - 9 spreads, cotton import profits, cotton basis, and Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts [13][14][15]. 3.4 Operation Suggestions - ICE cotton is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation in the short term [16]. - For Zhengzhou cotton, it is advisable to pay attention to market sentiment, downstream profits, and import profits of out - of - quota cotton. The discussion on the cotton planting area in Xinjiang in 2026 is more suitable to be traded after the Spring Festival in combination with demand [2][16].

（来源：邯郸日报） 转自：邯郸日报 科技日报讯 （记者李禾）记者近日从中国农业科学院棉花研究所获悉，该所棉花分子遗传改良创新团 队通过多物种比较和分子遗传学分析手段，揭示了乙烯调控棉纤维长度与强度关键通路。这一发现为突 破棉花育种中"长强"矛盾的瓶颈提供了关键分子靶点。相关研究成果日前发表于学术期刊《先进科 学》。 棉纤维的长度和强度是决定其经济价值的核心指标，但两者在遗传上通常表现为负相关的关系。纤维要 长得长，强度就容易不够；想让纤维结实耐磨，长度又往往不尽如人意。这种"鱼和熊掌难兼得"的"长 强"矛盾，一直是优质棉培育路上的"拦路虎"。以往的研究发现，乙烯是棉纤维发育的关键调控激素， 但其作用机制尚不明确。 团队研究发现，乙烯对棉纤维的调控具有显著的剂量依赖性，而且这种调控作用在棉花的不同进化阶段 具有不同特点。 在现代栽培的陆地棉中，提高乙烯水平能增强棉纤维强度但会缩短长度。为了搞清楚背后的原理，研究 团队开展了进一步研究，鉴定出一条关键的转录调控通路，正是这条通路将乙烯的信号精准传递到棉纤 维发育的关键环节，从而调控纤维的生长状态。在棉花的古老祖先种即亚洲棉中，上述调控通路的功能 却完全相反。在亚洲 ...

原标题：我科学家成功绘制陆地棉进化路线图 该研究揭示了陆地棉泛基因组中广泛存在与抗病密切相关的结构变异。其中，通过对抗病免疫受体编码 基因NLR家族的分析，鉴定出了抗黄萎病新位点，揭示了NLR基因家族演化规律。同时，标记鉴定出了 69个与纤维品质相关的位点，其中62个为以前未检测到的新位点，还发现了调控纤维强度与种子大小的 多效基因等。 3日，记者从中国农业科学院棉花研究所获悉，该所研究员李付广、杨召恩团队绘制了陆地棉进化路线 图，揭示了染色体大片段变异调控种群遗传多样性、环境适应性的遗传机制，破解了纤维品质性状形成 的遗传架构，开辟了棉花优异种质创制的新路径。相关成果发表在国际学术期刊《自然·遗传学》上。 该研究还系统绘制了陆地棉中127个大尺度倒位的全基因组分布图谱，揭示其在抗虫性与纤维色泽等重 要性状中的关键作用。比如在A06染色体上，一个3.9Mb的倒位显著提升叶片表皮毛密度，并与抗虫性 相关；在A07染色体，Lc1位点所决定的棕色纤维表型由两种不同的倒位单倍型控制。上述功能倒位均 与区域内数百个基因紧密连锁，因此，在选择高抗虫性或理想纤维色泽时，可能会在无意中引入大量非 目标性状的基因，即"连锁累赘 ...

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the Xinjiang Cotton and Yarn Trading Center aims to create a cotton and yarn price index to guide production and sales, ensuring supply-demand balance and supporting the development of the textile industry in Xinjiang [1]. Group 1: Index Introduction - The Xinjiang Cotton Price Index is based on the reported delivery prices of mainstream quality cotton from cotton enterprises in major production areas, calculated using a weighted average according to local production volumes [2]. - The Xinjiang Yarn Price Index is derived from the reported factory delivery prices of mainstream yarn specifications from textile enterprises, also calculated using a weighted average based on actual yarn production [2]. Group 2: Index Trial Operation - The internal trial operation of the Xinjiang Cotton and Yarn Price Index began on June 3, 2025, under the guidance of the regional development and reform commission [3]. - An expert review meeting held on December 23, 2025, confirmed that the index effectively reflects the market price levels and trends of Xinjiang's cotton and yarn, demonstrating strong market applicability and decision-making reference value [3]. Group 3: Index Release - Starting January 4, 2026, the trading center will publish the previous day's Xinjiang Cotton and Yarn Price Index every working day before 10:30 AM [4]. - The price index will be available on the official websites of the China Cotton and Yarn Trading Center and the China Cotton Information Network [4]. - The trading center plans to enhance index management, conduct regular evaluations, and optimize the index content to ensure it accurately reflects market demand and serves as a valuable decision-making tool [4].

Core Viewpoint - The cotton market is experiencing fluctuations, with the main Zheng cotton contract showing a slight increase of 0.52% after initially declining, driven by expectations of reduced planting area and concerns over future supply constraints [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The anticipated decrease in domestic planting area for the new year has heightened market concerns regarding future supply shortages, providing strong support for cotton prices [1] - Despite the expected abundant cotton yield this year, supply pressure remains, compounded by the traditional off-season for the textile industry, leading to weak new orders from weaving factories [1] Group 2: Industry Challenges - Domestic textile enterprises are facing significant pressure, as the rise in cotton prices has not been matched by an increase in downstream yarn prices, resulting in squeezed profits for yarn manufacturers [1] - The motivation for textile companies to replenish raw materials is weakening due to these profit pressures [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - According to Everbright Futures, Zheng cotton is expected to maintain a strong oscillating trend in the short term, driven by a combination of strong expectations and strong realities, which differs from previous purely expectation-driven trading [1] - The likelihood of turning positive expectations into negative outcomes is lower this time, and there are still favorable policy developments anticipated in the future [1]

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.31」 棉花（纱）市场周报 研究员：王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证Z0021556 关 注 微信客 服 号 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权及股市关联市场 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾：本周郑棉主力2605合约价格上涨，周度涨幅约3.71%。 行情展望：巴西棉播种进度顺利，进度明显快于五年均值。巴西国家商品供应公司 公布的数据显示，截至2025年12月27日当周，巴西2025/26年度棉花种植率为 25.1%，此前一周为16.9%，五年均值为15.6%。国内市场：当前全国棉花公检量已 超600万吨，市场供应相对充足。另外轧花厂皮棉加工接近尾声，下游纺企中高支纱 线订单表现稳定，多选择刚需补货，部分地区仓库库存小幅下降，整体出库良好， 预计下周全国商业库存仍呈增加之势。短期棉价可能进入调整状态。 未来交易提示： 1、关注外棉价格变化2、需求3、库存情况 3 添加客服 业务咨询 「 期现市场情况」 美棉市场 图1、CFTC美棉净持仓与ICE美棉活跃合约价格走势 图2、CFTC美棉非商业净持仓情况 来源：wind 瑞达期货研 ...