截至9月23日7时许，现货黄金持续保持3740美元/盎司高位。 | 贵金属 ▽ | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 - | COMEX黄金 | | 3743.280 | 44.000 | 3774.5 | | -2.565 -0.07% +0.012 +0.03% -0.6 -0.6 -0.02% | | | | COMEX白银 | SHFE黄金 | SHFE白银 | | 44.245 | 850.98 | 10348 | | +0.031 +0.07% +12.24 +1.46% +1.46% +1.77% | | | 当地时间9月22日，美股三大股指低开高走，截至收盘集体续创历史新高。数据显示，道指、纳指、标普500指数分别上涨0.14%、0.70%、0.44%，齐创历史 新高。 个股方面，美国大型科技股涨跌互现。截至收盘，美国科技七巨头指数上涨1.08%；苹果涨超4%，特斯拉涨近2%，META、亚马逊均跌超1%，谷歌跌近 1%，微软跌0.67%。 英伟达发力上涨，截至收盘涨近4%，报183.61美元/股，续创历史新高，公司总市值升至4.46万亿美元。消息面上， ...

当FOMO（错失恐惧症）情绪席卷市场时，投机热潮已不再局限于科技股等风险资产，而是向黄金、黄金ETF等传统避险资产蔓延。标普500、纳指、黄金 和黄金矿业股同步暴涨，这种异常的资产相关性正释放危险信号。 上周，美联储降息25个基点至4.00%-4.25%区间，这一"风险管理"举措旨在防范就业市场恶化，但市场反应复杂。股市盘中剧烈波动后收盘涨跌不一，美元 走强，10年期美债收益率升至4.07%附近。 最令人担忧的是，历史上作为市场压力对冲工具的黄金，如今却与股票、科技股乃至比特币同步上涨。黄金创历史新高，黄金矿业ETF(GDX)较低点飙升近 100%，这种"抛物线式"上涨模式显示投机情绪已渗透至传统防御性资产。 技术面显示，标普500指数收于6652点，较50日均线高出两个标准差，市场广度持续恶化。当所有资产同步狂热上涨时，往往意味着风险正在积聚，最终必 然会有某个环节崩溃导致大跌。 据高盛最新报告，散户交易代理指标——不足100股的零股交易在第三季度占美股交易总量的66%，较2019年1月的31%大幅跃升，占名义交易量的20%以 上。这种散户疯狂涌入的现象恰恰印证了FOMO情绪的升温。 美联储降息引发市场分歧 ...

以下文章来源于思想钢印 ，作者思想钢印 思想钢印 . 雪球2020年度十大影响力用户，私募基金经理 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：思想钢印 来源：雪球 01 神奇的大卖单 本周三四 ， 多个证券股都出现了天量卖单 ， 但并不像普通的大资金出货 。 大资金出货是一个技术活 ， 要尽可能减少对盘面的冲击 ， 化整为零 ， 控制节奏 ， 甚至有专门的算法 ； 就算是人气龙头股可以快速打压股价 后 ， 在低位利用震荡出货给抄底资金 ， 也要尽可能减少挂出大卖单 。 但这几个股票完全相反 ， 在卖出压低价格后 ， 又在盘面 " 卖一价 " 上挂出亿元大卖单 。 这种非常粗暴的卖出手段 ， 生怕别人不知道有人在卖 ， 很多人认为 ， 很可能是监管层在向市场传递某种信息 。 真实情况是什么 ， 我们可能很难知道 ， 但 如果真的这么做 。 其实也符合监管一贯的稳定市场的思路 ， 你总不能说 ， 暴跌的时候出手托底就 是对的 ， 涨急了降温就是错的 ？ 还有人认为 ， 这种非市场化的控盘手段 ， 不会达到想要的慢牛的目的 。 但我 ...

Group 1 - The core sentiment in the market is driven by optimism surrounding a more accommodative monetary policy and the AI boom, leading to a significant rise in U.S. stocks, breaking the historical trend of weak performance in September [1] - Bank of America strategists suggest that the "Magnificent Seven" stocks have further upside potential, with historical data indicating an average increase of 244% during past market bubbles from low to peak [1][2] - Current valuations of the "Magnificent Seven" stocks, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 39, suggest that they are still within a bubble phase, as past bubbles typically ended at a P/E of 58 [2] Group 2 - Jeff Krumpelman from Mariner Wealth Advisors believes that the productivity gains driven by AI can support higher valuation levels, indicating that the market is in the early stages of AI development [2] - The S&P 500's expected P/E ratio is around 23, which, while above historical averages, is justified by the current market composition dominated by tech and communication services [2] - Concerns about market overheating are raised, with warnings that a true "melt-up" could lead to instability if driven by speculative behavior rather than fundamentals [2][3] Group 3 - Analysts from major financial institutions like Wells Fargo, Barclays, and Deutsche Bank have recently raised their S&P 500 target levels, citing earnings resilience and AI investment cycles as key drivers for the next market uptrend [3] - Despite the optimism, risks remain, including high valuations and reduced market breadth, which could lead to a more volatile short-term outlook [3] - Bill Smead from Smead Capital Management compares the current AI-driven enthusiasm to past market bubbles, predicting a potential collapse that could leave many investors disappointed [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent rebound of Hong Kong technology stocks is attributed to accelerated domestic AI advancements, with the Hang Seng Tech Index and Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect Tech Index rising nearly 20% since the low in July [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The technology sector is expected to lead the third revaluation of Hong Kong stocks, as negative factors such as the food delivery war are largely priced in [1] - AI models, chip procurement, and capital expenditures are anticipated to accelerate, contributing to positive market sentiment [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - With the onset of a new round of monetary easing by the Federal Reserve and advancements in the internet and technology sectors, there is potential for further improvement in market sentiment for Hong Kong stocks [1] - The technology sector remains in a favorable position for investment opportunities [1]

Group 1 - The article discusses unusual large sell orders in several securities stocks, which do not align with typical large fund selling strategies aimed at minimizing market impact [1][2] - There is speculation that these aggressive selling tactics may be a signal from regulatory authorities to convey certain market messages [2][3] - The current market dynamics reflect a regulatory approach focused on maintaining stability, with a historical context of managing market fluctuations to prevent extreme volatility [9][10][11] Group 2 - The regulatory framework includes three key performance indicators (KPIs): market stability, investment financing reform, and strengthening regulatory enforcement [6][7][8] - The article highlights that the current market environment is not conducive to a slow bull market, as macroeconomic conditions do not support stable growth in corporate earnings [17][19][20] - The ongoing bull market is primarily driven by liquidity rather than fundamental improvements in company performance, raising concerns about sustainability [20][21][22] Group 3 - The concept of a "manufactured slow bull market" is introduced, emphasizing the need for a balance between market inflows and outflows to maintain stability [28][29] - The article suggests that managing the stock market effectively requires a nuanced approach, particularly in controlling indices to influence investor sentiment and market dynamics [30][31][32] - The discussion includes the challenges faced by regulatory bodies in maintaining a stable market environment while preventing excessive speculation and volatility [39][41]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut of the year and the first in nine months [1][5][6] - The rate cut is described as a "non-typical preventive cut" amid ongoing inflation pressures, indicating a cautious approach to monetary easing [5][6] Group 2: Market Reactions - U.S. stock markets reached new historical highs, with the S&P 500 index closing at 6664.36 points, up 1.22% for the week, and the Nasdaq composite index rising 2.21% to 22631.476 points [1][4] - Gold prices hit a historical high before experiencing slight profit-taking, with London spot gold recording a weekly increase of 1.14%, closing at $3685.07 per ounce [2][4] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The upcoming Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data is expected to show a rebound in inflation, with predictions of a month-on-month increase from 0.2% to 0.32% and a year-on-year increase from 2.6% to 2.8% [5][6] - Analysts suggest that despite current low inflation pressures, a significant rebound is anticipated due to factors such as tariffs, energy price fluctuations, and labor market conditions [6][7] Group 4: Global Market Overview - European stock indices showed mixed results, with the STOXX 600 index down 0.13% and the German DAX 30 index down 0.25% for the week [2][4] - In the Asia-Pacific region, the Nikkei 225 index rose 0.62%, while the KOSPI index increased by 1.46% [2][4]

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices reached historical highs, with the Dow Jones up 0.37%, Nasdaq up 0.72%, and S&P 500 up 0.49% [1] - Bank stocks showed mixed performance, with major banks like Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan Chase experiencing slight gains, while others like Zions Bank and United Bank saw small declines [3] - Technology stocks also displayed a mixed trend, with Apple rising 3.2%, Tesla up 2.21%, and Microsoft up 1.86%, while Intel fell 3.24% [3] Chinese Concept Stocks - Chinese concept stocks experienced narrow fluctuations throughout the day, closing down 0.25%, with Pinduoduo dropping 2.62% and several others like Li Auto and iQIYI also declining over 1% [3] - However, Xpeng Motors rose 1.74%, and Alibaba, Bilibili, and Baidu saw slight increases [3] Gold Market - COMEX gold prices opened higher, closing up 1.12% at $3719.4 per ounce, with intraday fluctuations between a low of $3664.4 and a high of $3719.6 [3] - The gold market is currently facing contradictions, balancing fears of high prices against prevailing trends [3]

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices closed at record highs for the second consecutive trading day, with the Dow Jones up 0.37%, S&P 500 up 0.49%, and Nasdaq up 0.72% [1][3] - For the week, the Dow Jones increased by 1.05%, S&P 500 by 1.22%, and Nasdaq by 2.21% [3] Sector Performance - Large technology stocks mostly rose, with the index of the seven major U.S. tech companies increasing by 1.22%. Notable individual stock performances included Apple up over 3%, Tesla up over 2%, and Microsoft up nearly 2% [3] - Bank stocks collectively rose, with JPMorgan up 0.49%, Goldman Sachs up 0.15%, and Wells Fargo up over 1% [3] - Energy stocks declined across the board, with ExxonMobil down nearly 1% and Chevron down over 1% [3] Airline and Chinese Stocks - Airline stocks showed mixed results, with Delta Airlines up 0.44% and Southwest Airlines up 0.77%, while American Airlines fell over 1% [4] - Chinese stocks had varied performance, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index down 0.25% and notable individual performances such as Pony.ai up nearly 19% [4] International Markets - European stock indices experienced slight declines, with the FTSE 100 down 0.12%, CAC40 down 0.01%, and DAX down 0.15% [4] Commodity Prices - International oil prices weakened, with West Texas Intermediate crude oil down 1.42% to $62.36 per barrel and Brent crude down 1.34% to $66.02 per barrel [5] Currency Movement - The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.3%, closing at 97.644 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The valuation bubble in large U.S. tech stocks has not yet peaked, and there is still room for further gains, according to Bank of America analysts [1][3]. Group 1: Valuation and Historical Comparison - The average price increase from the bottom to the peak in past major market bubbles has been 244%, while the "Magnificent Seven" (Tesla, Google, Apple, Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, and Nvidia) has seen a cumulative increase of 223% since March 2023 [3]. - Current trailing P/E ratio for the "Magnificent Seven" is 39 times, compared to historical bubbles where it typically reached 58 times [3]. - The stock prices of the "Magnificent Seven" are only 20% above their 200-day moving average, while historical bubbles have seen prices exceed this average by 29% [3]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Drivers - Strong market sentiment, a favorable macroeconomic environment, ongoing enthusiasm for artificial intelligence, and expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are key factors supporting the rise of tech stocks [4]. - The S&P 500 Information Technology Index has surged 56% since its low in April, with investors consistently buying during pullbacks [4]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - A recent fund manager survey indicated that "going long on the Magnificent Seven" is viewed as the most crowded trade, with 42% of respondents agreeing [5]. - The concentration of this trade aligns with historical bubble characteristics, as seen during the 2000 internet bubble [5]. - While optimistic about the continuation of the tech stock bubble, Bank of America analysts recommend a balanced strategy, suggesting a "barbell strategy" that includes both large tech stocks and some "bad value stocks" to manage risk [5].