格隆汇12月24日｜美股三大指数集体收涨，均录得日线4连涨。纳指涨0.57%，标普500指数涨0.45%， 道指涨0.16%。其中，标普500指数录得收盘新高。大型科技股多数上涨，英伟达涨超3%，谷歌、亚马 逊涨超1%，Meta、苹果、微软、奈飞小幅上涨；特斯拉、英特尔小幅下跌。诺和诺德涨超7%，美国 FDA批准了诺和诺德的首款口服GLP-1减肥药。 ...

国际金银市场迎来狂欢，价格大幅攀升并再创新高。COMEX黄金期货涨幅逾2%；COMEX白银期货涨 2.37%，报69.09美元/盎司。金银价格的强势上涨，吸引了众多投资者的目光，市场交易活跃度显著提 升。 市场最为关注的当属美联储的大消息。据金十报道，美国总统特朗普可能在明年1月第一周任命新的美 联储主席。现任美联储主席鲍威尔的四年任期将于明年5月届满，特朗普此前明确表示，希望选择一位 支持增长友好型货币政策的继任者。目前，除美联储理事沃勒和鲍曼外，白宫经济顾问哈塞特以及前美 联储理事沃什也被列为潜在候选人。这一消息引发了市场对美联储未来货币政策走向的广泛猜测和讨 论。 根据CME"美联储观察"数据，美联储明年1月降息25个基点的概率为19.9%，维持利率不变的概率为 80.1%。到明年3月，累计降息25个基点的概率为44.7%，维持利率不变的概率为47.1%，累计降息50个 基点的概率为8.2%。降息预期的变化，使得金融市场的不确定性增加，投资者在市场中的博弈也愈发 激烈。 美东时间周三（12月24日），全球金融市场风云变幻，隔夜美股全线拉升，黄金白银价格更是大幅上 扬，与此同时，美联储高层变动消息引发市场 ...

我们是一个聚焦全球资本市场的高影响力财经账号。 内容由华尔街交易员与研究员共同撰写，提供市场深度解读、机构级逻辑与实时判断。 这里没有喊 单，没有套路，只有用数据和常识说话的分析。 我们希望把复杂的金融世界，讲给真正关心自己资产的人听。 来源 | capitalwatch 以下文章来源于capitalwatch ，作者宏观分析师 capitalwatch . 华尔街有一句残酷的格言： 在拥挤的交易里， 没有阿尔法（Alpha） 同样，在拥挤的恐惧里，往往也没有真正的黑天鹅。 看看这张德意志银行的调查图表，它不仅展示了数据，更展示了一个巨大的 "心理陷阱" 。 左边那根高耸入云的柱子—— 57% 的投资者认为"科技股估值暴跌/AI退潮"是最大风险。 这画面看起来很吓人，对吧？ 但在资深交易员眼中，这根柱子传达了一个完全相反的信号： 这个风险可能已经"安全"了。 为什么？让我们换个角度，聊聊2026年市场真正的"灯下黑"。 恐惧的"通货膨胀"：当大家都带了伞，暴雨通常不会下 当接近六成的市场参与者都在担心同一个问题（AI泡沫）时，这意味着什么？ 这意味着绝大多数机构已经为此做了准备：他们可能已经买了看跌期权（Pu ...

Group 1 - The A-share market has seen a significant rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning to 3900 points, aiming for a fourth consecutive day of gains. Key sectors such as copper cables, storage chips, and CPO have opened high, contributing to the growth of the ChiNext ETF Tianhong (159977), which has increased over 2% and has risen more than 8% since the low on November 24 [1][2] - Researchers from Shanghai Jiao Tong University have made a breakthrough in the field of next-generation optical computing chips, achieving the first all-optical computing chip that supports large-scale semantic media generation models [2] - Last Friday, U.S. tech stocks rebounded across the board, with 24 companies, including Microsoft and Google, joining the U.S. AI "Genesis Plan." OpenAI is reportedly planning to raise up to $100 billion at a valuation of $830 billion [2] Group 2 - The ChiNext ETF Tianhong (159977), which tracks the ChiNext Index, represents a significant index for technology growth, led by the new energy sector. It encompasses four high-growth industries: "new energy + pharmaceuticals + computing power + brokerage," covering strategic emerging industries in China with global competitive advantages, including high-end manufacturing, information technology, and biomedicine. The latest scale of this ETF is 8.503 billion yuan, with a net inflow of over 67 million yuan in the past five days. The combined management and custody fees are 0.2%, the lowest in the market [2]

证券研究报告 | 策略专题报告 2025 年 12 月 21 日 中央经济工作会议后，中财办、各部委有哪些增量表态？ ——国内外产业政策周报（1221） 本周国内政策方面，第一，中央经济工作会议后，中财办、各部委均有增量表 态，根据我们的梳理，建议重点关注五方面增量信息。第二，《保险公司资产 负债管理办法（征求意见稿）》发布，重点关注两方面变化。第三，各地十五 五建议稿出台。海外政策方面，本周美国九家药企达成协议，日央行加息落地、 美股科技大幅反弹。 专题报告 相关报告 1、《今年以来服务消费政策部 署梳理，美政府结束停摆——国 内外产业政策周报（1116）》 2、《黄金税收政策调整，美国 与亚洲多国达成合作——国内 外产业政策周报（1103）》 3、《发布会召开介绍和解读四 中全会精神，有哪些增量信息？ — — 国 内 外 产 业 政 策 周 报 （1025）》 4、《整治内卷聚焦价格治理， 特朗普威胁对华大幅加征关税 — — 国 内 外 产 业 政 策 周 报 （1011）》 5、《钢铁建材等稳增长方案陆 续印发，美国众议院代表团访华 — — 国 内 外 产 业 政 策 周 报 （0927）》 6、《三行 ...

Core Insights - A trend of "counter-market buying" is emerging in the Hong Kong stock market amidst ongoing fluctuations, with institutional investors recognizing the valuation opportunities presented by the market correction [1][4]. Group 1: Fundraising and Investment Trends - Since October 10, at least 15 new Hong Kong-themed funds have announced early fundraising closures, covering various types including passive index funds and equity mixed funds [2][3]. - The early closure of fundraising is characterized by significant time reductions, with some funds shortening their fundraising periods by over a month [3]. - Newly launched ETFs have established high stock positions quickly, indicating a strong bullish sentiment, with some ETFs reaching stock positions of 69.53% and 63.32% before listing [3]. Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - Institutions view the current market adjustment as a prime opportunity for building positions, with many believing that the fundamental performance of key stocks remains strong despite recent price declines [4][5]. - The consensus among institutions is that the current valuation levels, with the Hang Seng Index trading at approximately 12 times earnings, represent a significant undervaluation [5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Challenges - The Hang Seng Index has seen a cumulative decline of 5.85% and the Hang Seng Tech Index has dropped 18.01% since early October, attributed to various internal and external factors [7]. - Key challenges include fluctuations in liquidity expectations, concerns over the U.S. "AI bubble," and increased pressure from IPO activities, which have raised over 100 billion HKD since new regulations were introduced [7][8]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook and Investment Opportunities - Despite short-term pressures, institutions maintain an optimistic long-term outlook for the Hong Kong market, predicting a "slow bull" market in 2026 driven by improved liquidity and returning capital [9]. - Key investment themes for 2026 include technology and high-end manufacturing, with a focus on sectors such as computing power, semiconductors, and consumer electronics [9][10]. - High dividend yield assets are also favored, with institutions highlighting the stability of dividend-paying stocks in a low-interest-rate environment [9][10].

【窩輪透視】小米40港元整固，高彈性窩輪捕捉突破機會 值得一提的是，在12月16日我們的【中銀做客】專欄中，中銀國際董事朱紅Niki曾點評小米：小米股價這段時間一直穩定在40港元附近，對比此前36.6港元 的低位，這一位置應該就是近期的底部區間。股價此前曾沖高至42港元附近，隨後跟隨大盤回調，再度回到40港元附近，目前處於整理階段。 昨日（18日）小米集團（01810）全天收報40.2港元，單日下跌2.47%，成交額51.36億港元。從技術面來看，該股的支撐位分別為38.5港元和37.9港元，阻力 位則在41.9港元及42.6港元，上升概率55%，5日振幅達9.2%。指標方面，RSI數值為42，技術指標綜合信號為"買入"，信號強度9。其中隨機震盪指標處於超 賣區間併發出買入信號，MACD指標同樣給出買入信號，但變動率指標和動量震盪指標則呈現賣出信號，多空信號出現小幅分歧。 回顧近期熱門窩輪表現，12月16日選取的小米相關產品中，法巴熊證（64688）和華泰認沽證（29233）表現亮眼，兩只產品在兩個交易日後漲幅均達到 16%，而同期正股則下跌1.71%。這一走勢充分體現出窩輪的高彈性特點，當正股出現調整時，熊 ...

在其官方声明中，该央行提到，日本人口正在收缩，因此就业形势持续偏紧，尽管受到关税影响，企业利润预计仍然强 劲，并表示企业"很大可能"会在明年继续加薪，而物价将会继续温和上升。 我们留意到，日本宣布加息后，日元兑美元汇价却走低，现已下滑至156水平，接近157，触及一周低位，原因可能与植田 和男没有明确提供清晰的加息路径有关，而首相可能倾向于更为宽松的政策以刺激经济，这并未缓解投资者对于日本增加 债务以应对其财政开支的担忧。 其他央行货币决策符合预期，日元优势不明显 另一方面，世界其他重要央行也于近日公布了最新的利率政策。 见下图，日元30年期国债收益率继续维持在高位水平。 美联储于12月10日宣布降息25个基点，并开始扩表，为市场提供流动性。但外界更关注的是其未来的利率路径：美国最新 公布的经济数据显示，11月份通胀率出乎意料降至2.7%，低于预期的3.1%，也低于9月份的3%，不考虑波动较大的食品和 能源价格后核心通胀率为2.6%，低于预期的3%。 日本央行在12月19日的货币政策决策会议上，一如市场预期再次加息，将政策利率——无担保隔夜拆借利率的引导目标上 调25个基点，至0.75%，也标志着日本政策利率 ...

12月19日，港股三大指数高开高走，截至收盘，恒生指数上涨0.75%，恒生科技指数上涨1.12%，恒生国企指数上涨0.68%。 【导读】港股三大指数集体收涨 创新药、新能源汽车等涨幅靠前 具体来看，当日权重科技股集体上涨，腾讯、快手、网易、美团、百度均涨超1%。 板块方面，当日创新药概念股涨幅靠前，其中，映恩生物涨幅达9.29%，药明生物涨幅达4.4%。 | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 ▼ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9606 | 映恩生物-B | 336.600c | 28.600 | 9.29% | | 2269 | 药明生物 | 34.160c | 1.440 | 4.40% | | 6990 | 科伦博泰生物-B | 419.200c | 14.200 | 3.51% | | 1877 | 君实生物 | 23.240c | 0.760 | 3.38% | | 2162 | 康诺亚-B | 55.500c | 1.800 | 3.35% | | 2268 | 药明合联 | 70.000c | 2.050 | 3.02% | | 1530 | ...

Group 1: Company Announcements - Multiple A-share listed companies disclosed shareholding changes on December 18, with Dazhong Mining, Sichuan Road and Bridge, and Tibet Pharmaceutical announcing share increases [1][8] - Companies including Lidasin, WuXi AppTec, Feilong Co., Ruichen Environmental Protection, Lihu Lake Co., Junshi Biosciences, Yidong Electronics, Huahai Chengke, Boshuo Technology, Allianz Ruishi, and Dazhong Mining reported share reductions [1][8] Group 2: Macroeconomic and Market Analysis - Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zakharova stated that the launch of the Hainan Free Trade Port is an innovative move that will lay the foundation for Hainan's successful development and expand business opportunities for both domestic and foreign individuals [2][9] - The establishment of the Hainan Free Trade Port and other pilot free trade zones is seen as an effective measure to promote foreign trade, improve trade structure, and achieve trade diversification [2][9] Group 3: Market Performance and Related Assets - U.S. stock indices closed higher on Thursday, with the Dow Jones up 0.14%, Nasdaq up 1.38%, and S&P 500 up 0.79% [3][10] - Notable performances in tech stocks included Amazon and Meta rising over 2%, while Tesla increased by over 3% [3][10] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose over 1%, with significant gains in stocks such as Canadian Solar up 6.07% and Zai Lab up 4.56% [3][10] Group 4: Commodity and Price Forecasts - Goldman Sachs predicts that by 2026, the average price of Brent crude oil and West Texas Intermediate crude oil will drop to $56 and $52 per barrel, respectively, and iron ore prices will decline by 15% to $88 per ton [3][10] - The firm maintains a forecast for copper prices to reach $15,000 by 2035 and recommends a long position in copper and a short position in aluminum [3][10] Group 5: Institutional Views and Market Analysis - Goldman Sachs holds an optimistic view on gold prices, predicting a 14% increase to $4,900 per ounce by December 2026, with potential upside risks to this forecast [4][11] Group 6: Funding and Liquidity Trends - Following the recent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, several banks, including Jiangsu Bank and HSBC (China), have lowered their U.S. dollar deposit product rates [5][12] - Jiangsu Bank reported a decrease of 0.05 percentage points in its latest U.S. dollar deposit rates for 3-month, 6-month, and 1-year terms, which were previously 4.45%, 4.35%, and 4.25% respectively [5][12] Group 7: Regulatory Dynamics and Company Risk Events - European Central Bank officials indicated that the interest rate reduction cycle is likely over, with deposit rates expected to remain at 2% unless significant shocks occur [6][13] - ECB President Lagarde emphasized the uncertainty in the current economic environment, stating that no guidance could be provided and all options should be retained [6][13]