证券研究报告 | 策略专题报告 2025 年 12 月 21 日 中央经济工作会议后，中财办、各部委有哪些增量表态？ ——国内外产业政策周报（1221） 本周国内政策方面，第一，中央经济工作会议后，中财办、各部委均有增量表 态，根据我们的梳理，建议重点关注五方面增量信息。第二，《保险公司资产 负债管理办法（征求意见稿）》发布，重点关注两方面变化。第三，各地十五 五建议稿出台。海外政策方面，本周美国九家药企达成协议，日央行加息落地、 美股科技大幅反弹。 专题报告 相关报告 1、《今年以来服务消费政策部 署梳理，美政府结束停摆——国 内外产业政策周报（1116）》 2、《黄金税收政策调整，美国 与亚洲多国达成合作——国内 外产业政策周报（1103）》 3、《发布会召开介绍和解读四 中全会精神，有哪些增量信息？ — — 国 内 外 产 业 政 策 周 报 （1025）》 4、《整治内卷聚焦价格治理， 特朗普威胁对华大幅加征关税 — — 国 内 外 产 业 政 策 周 报 （1011）》 5、《钢铁建材等稳增长方案陆 续印发，美国众议院代表团访华 — — 国 内 外 产 业 政 策 周 报 （0927）》 6、《三行 ...

Core Insights - A trend of "counter-market buying" is emerging in the Hong Kong stock market amidst ongoing fluctuations, with institutional investors recognizing the valuation opportunities presented by the market correction [1][4]. Group 1: Fundraising and Investment Trends - Since October 10, at least 15 new Hong Kong-themed funds have announced early fundraising closures, covering various types including passive index funds and equity mixed funds [2][3]. - The early closure of fundraising is characterized by significant time reductions, with some funds shortening their fundraising periods by over a month [3]. - Newly launched ETFs have established high stock positions quickly, indicating a strong bullish sentiment, with some ETFs reaching stock positions of 69.53% and 63.32% before listing [3]. Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - Institutions view the current market adjustment as a prime opportunity for building positions, with many believing that the fundamental performance of key stocks remains strong despite recent price declines [4][5]. - The consensus among institutions is that the current valuation levels, with the Hang Seng Index trading at approximately 12 times earnings, represent a significant undervaluation [5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Challenges - The Hang Seng Index has seen a cumulative decline of 5.85% and the Hang Seng Tech Index has dropped 18.01% since early October, attributed to various internal and external factors [7]. - Key challenges include fluctuations in liquidity expectations, concerns over the U.S. "AI bubble," and increased pressure from IPO activities, which have raised over 100 billion HKD since new regulations were introduced [7][8]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook and Investment Opportunities - Despite short-term pressures, institutions maintain an optimistic long-term outlook for the Hong Kong market, predicting a "slow bull" market in 2026 driven by improved liquidity and returning capital [9]. - Key investment themes for 2026 include technology and high-end manufacturing, with a focus on sectors such as computing power, semiconductors, and consumer electronics [9][10]. - High dividend yield assets are also favored, with institutions highlighting the stability of dividend-paying stocks in a low-interest-rate environment [9][10].

【窩輪透視】小米40港元整固，高彈性窩輪捕捉突破機會 值得一提的是，在12月16日我們的【中銀做客】專欄中，中銀國際董事朱紅Niki曾點評小米：小米股價這段時間一直穩定在40港元附近，對比此前36.6港元 的低位，這一位置應該就是近期的底部區間。股價此前曾沖高至42港元附近，隨後跟隨大盤回調，再度回到40港元附近，目前處於整理階段。 昨日（18日）小米集團（01810）全天收報40.2港元，單日下跌2.47%，成交額51.36億港元。從技術面來看，該股的支撐位分別為38.5港元和37.9港元，阻力 位則在41.9港元及42.6港元，上升概率55%，5日振幅達9.2%。指標方面，RSI數值為42，技術指標綜合信號為"買入"，信號強度9。其中隨機震盪指標處於超 賣區間併發出買入信號，MACD指標同樣給出買入信號，但變動率指標和動量震盪指標則呈現賣出信號，多空信號出現小幅分歧。 回顧近期熱門窩輪表現，12月16日選取的小米相關產品中，法巴熊證（64688）和華泰認沽證（29233）表現亮眼，兩只產品在兩個交易日後漲幅均達到 16%，而同期正股則下跌1.71%。這一走勢充分體現出窩輪的高彈性特點，當正股出現調整時，熊 ...

在其官方声明中，该央行提到，日本人口正在收缩，因此就业形势持续偏紧，尽管受到关税影响，企业利润预计仍然强 劲，并表示企业"很大可能"会在明年继续加薪，而物价将会继续温和上升。 我们留意到，日本宣布加息后，日元兑美元汇价却走低，现已下滑至156水平，接近157，触及一周低位，原因可能与植田 和男没有明确提供清晰的加息路径有关，而首相可能倾向于更为宽松的政策以刺激经济，这并未缓解投资者对于日本增加 债务以应对其财政开支的担忧。 其他央行货币决策符合预期，日元优势不明显 另一方面，世界其他重要央行也于近日公布了最新的利率政策。 见下图，日元30年期国债收益率继续维持在高位水平。 美联储于12月10日宣布降息25个基点，并开始扩表，为市场提供流动性。但外界更关注的是其未来的利率路径：美国最新 公布的经济数据显示，11月份通胀率出乎意料降至2.7%，低于预期的3.1%，也低于9月份的3%，不考虑波动较大的食品和 能源价格后核心通胀率为2.6%，低于预期的3%。 日本央行在12月19日的货币政策决策会议上，一如市场预期再次加息，将政策利率——无担保隔夜拆借利率的引导目标上 调25个基点，至0.75%，也标志着日本政策利率 ...

12月19日，港股三大指数高开高走，截至收盘，恒生指数上涨0.75%，恒生科技指数上涨1.12%，恒生国企指数上涨0.68%。 【导读】港股三大指数集体收涨 创新药、新能源汽车等涨幅靠前 具体来看，当日权重科技股集体上涨，腾讯、快手、网易、美团、百度均涨超1%。 板块方面，当日创新药概念股涨幅靠前，其中，映恩生物涨幅达9.29%，药明生物涨幅达4.4%。 | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 ▼ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9606 | 映恩生物-B | 336.600c | 28.600 | 9.29% | | 2269 | 药明生物 | 34.160c | 1.440 | 4.40% | | 6990 | 科伦博泰生物-B | 419.200c | 14.200 | 3.51% | | 1877 | 君实生物 | 23.240c | 0.760 | 3.38% | | 2162 | 康诺亚-B | 55.500c | 1.800 | 3.35% | | 2268 | 药明合联 | 70.000c | 2.050 | 3.02% | | 1530 | ...

Group 1: Company Announcements - Multiple A-share listed companies disclosed shareholding changes on December 18, with Dazhong Mining, Sichuan Road and Bridge, and Tibet Pharmaceutical announcing share increases [1][8] - Companies including Lidasin, WuXi AppTec, Feilong Co., Ruichen Environmental Protection, Lihu Lake Co., Junshi Biosciences, Yidong Electronics, Huahai Chengke, Boshuo Technology, Allianz Ruishi, and Dazhong Mining reported share reductions [1][8] Group 2: Macroeconomic and Market Analysis - Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zakharova stated that the launch of the Hainan Free Trade Port is an innovative move that will lay the foundation for Hainan's successful development and expand business opportunities for both domestic and foreign individuals [2][9] - The establishment of the Hainan Free Trade Port and other pilot free trade zones is seen as an effective measure to promote foreign trade, improve trade structure, and achieve trade diversification [2][9] Group 3: Market Performance and Related Assets - U.S. stock indices closed higher on Thursday, with the Dow Jones up 0.14%, Nasdaq up 1.38%, and S&P 500 up 0.79% [3][10] - Notable performances in tech stocks included Amazon and Meta rising over 2%, while Tesla increased by over 3% [3][10] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose over 1%, with significant gains in stocks such as Canadian Solar up 6.07% and Zai Lab up 4.56% [3][10] Group 4: Commodity and Price Forecasts - Goldman Sachs predicts that by 2026, the average price of Brent crude oil and West Texas Intermediate crude oil will drop to $56 and $52 per barrel, respectively, and iron ore prices will decline by 15% to $88 per ton [3][10] - The firm maintains a forecast for copper prices to reach $15,000 by 2035 and recommends a long position in copper and a short position in aluminum [3][10] Group 5: Institutional Views and Market Analysis - Goldman Sachs holds an optimistic view on gold prices, predicting a 14% increase to $4,900 per ounce by December 2026, with potential upside risks to this forecast [4][11] Group 6: Funding and Liquidity Trends - Following the recent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, several banks, including Jiangsu Bank and HSBC (China), have lowered their U.S. dollar deposit product rates [5][12] - Jiangsu Bank reported a decrease of 0.05 percentage points in its latest U.S. dollar deposit rates for 3-month, 6-month, and 1-year terms, which were previously 4.45%, 4.35%, and 4.25% respectively [5][12] Group 7: Regulatory Dynamics and Company Risk Events - European Central Bank officials indicated that the interest rate reduction cycle is likely over, with deposit rates expected to remain at 2% unless significant shocks occur [6][13] - ECB President Lagarde emphasized the uncertainty in the current economic environment, stating that no guidance could be provided and all options should be retained [6][13]

Market Performance - On December 18, US stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.14% at 47,951.85 points, the Nasdaq up 1.38% at 23,006.36 points, and the S&P 500 up 0.79% at 6,774.76 points, ending a four-day decline [2][4] - Major tech stocks saw a collective rise, with the US Tech Giants Index increasing by 1.69%. Tesla rose over 3%, while Amazon and Meta increased by over 2%. Other notable gains included Google, Nvidia, and Microsoft rising over 1%, and Apple slightly up by 0.13% [4] Commodity Market - On December 18, COMEX silver futures fell over 2%, while spot palladium rose by 3.25%. International oil prices saw a slight increase, with light crude oil futures for January 2026 rising by $0.21 to $56.15 per barrel, a 0.38% increase, and February Brent crude oil futures up by $0.14 to $59.82 per barrel, a 0.23% increase [5][6] Inflation Data - The US Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November increased by 2.7% year-on-year, while the core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose by 2.6%. This data is considered significant following the end of the federal government shutdown [4] Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 0.97%, with mixed performance among popular Chinese stocks. Youdao increased by nearly 6%, Niu Technologies rose over 4%, and XPeng Motors was up over 2%, while Dingdong Maicai fell over 7% [4]

Group 1 - The core CPI data released by the U.S. Labor Department shows a November increase of 2.6%, the lowest since 2021, indicating further easing of inflationary pressures [2] - Following the CPI report, the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in January increased from 26.6% to 28.8%, with market expectations pricing in a total cut of 62 basis points for the year [2] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index saw an increase of 1.31%, reflecting positive sentiment in Chinese concept stocks [2] Group 2 - After the CPI data release, gold and silver prices dropped, with gold at $4319.665 per ounce (down 0.42%) and silver at $65.078 per ounce (down 1.71%) [1] - U.S. stock markets opened higher, with major indices like the Nasdaq and S&P 500 rising over 1%, driven by strong performances in technology stocks such as Micron Technology (up over 13%) and others like Tesla, Nvidia, and Amazon (each up over 2%) [1]

12月18日，港股三大指数午后拉升回暖，恒生指数尾盘飘红，最终收涨0.12%，国企指数、恒生科技指 数依旧呈现下跌，分别收跌0.02%及0.73%，市场总体未能延续昨日强势反弹行情。 盘面上，港股权重科技股多数表现弱势影响市场情绪，小米跌2.47%，阿里巴巴跌1.3%，百度、京东飘 绿；三大航空股涨幅明显，中国东方航空大涨8%表现亮眼；中金料明年内银股营业收入及纯利按年上 升，净息差压力进一步收窄，内银股普遍上涨；石油股、煤炭股、燃气股等能源板块多数走俏。另一方 面，纸业股、锂电池股、苹果概念股、汽车股、铜业股下跌明显。 具体来看： 受美股科技股集体下挫影响，港股权重科技股多数表现弱势影响市场情绪，小米跌2.47%，阿里巴巴跌 1.3%，百度、京东飘绿。 | 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 | 涨跌额 | 涨跌幅 ^ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 00020 | 商汤-W | 1.890 | -0.080 | -4.06% | | 01810 | 小米集团-W | 40.200 | -1.020 | -2.47% | | 00992 | 联想集团 | 9.400 | -0 ...

力勤资源(02245)涨超7%，印尼拟在2026年大幅下调镍矿产量目标。 智通财经APP获悉，港股恒生指数跌0.44%，跌111点，报25357点；恒生科技指数跌1.26%。港股早盘成 交790亿港元。 隔夜美股科技股集体下跌，港股科技股集体承压。阿里巴巴-W(09988)、华虹半导体(01347)跌逾1%。 中金公司并购两家券商预案出炉，中金公司（03908）涨3.64%。 机构料四季度航司将继续大幅减亏，单位座收或显著修复。航空股延续增长趋势。首都机场(00694)涨 7%；东方航空(00670)涨4.6%。 中国中免(01880)跌3.7%，海南封关正式落地。市场关注首都、上海机场免税招标情况。 招金矿业(01818)涨6%，山东省烟台莱州市发现亚洲最大海底巨型金矿。 新疆新鑫矿业(03833)涨超6%，印尼拟大幅收紧镍矿配额，公司旗下拥有四座镍铜矿。 微创机器人-B(02252)早盘涨超3%，公司近日获纳入港交所科技100指数。 微创医疗(00853)涨超8%，预期微创心通与CRM Cayman合并将于明日前后完成。 恒大物业(06666)跌4.7%，近日公司被恢复执行35.7亿元，未与潜在投标人就潜 ...