Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - The current macro - level is in a relatively vacuum period, A - shares lack a clear upward main line, trading volume remains low, and short - term market divergence is expected to be gradually digested during the index's shock adjustment, waiting for a new driving main line to push the index up further [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward trend, and the market is expected to fluctuate within a certain range [1] - The recent cooling of the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in December has led to a callback in copper, aluminum, and other non - ferrous metal prices, but the callback range of copper is expected to be limited. For different non - ferrous metals, there are different fundamental factors affecting their prices [1] - For various commodities such as steel, energy, and agricultural products, their prices are affected by factors such as seasonality, supply - demand relationship, cost, and macro - sentiment, and most of them are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with different risk and opportunity characteristics [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Stock and Bond Markets - A - shares lack a clear upward main line, trading volume is low, and short - term divergence will be digested during shock adjustment, waiting for a new driving factor [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but short - term interest - rate risks suppress the upward trend [1] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper price has a limited callback due to the cooling of the Fed rate - cut expectation in December [1] - Aluminum price has a callback due to the cooling of the Fed rate - cut expectation and limited industrial - side drive [1] - Alumina production and inventory are increasing, and the price fluctuates around the cost line [1] - Zinc has support below due to low LME inventory and signs of improvement in the domestic fundamentals [1] - Nickel price may fluctuate weakly in the short term due to macro - weakness and high inventory, and the long - term surplus pattern of primary nickel continues [1] - Stainless steel futures are looking for a bottom in shock, and short - term operations are recommended, paying attention to selling - hedging opportunities [1] - Tin is still bullish in the long - term despite short - term pressure from the Fed rate - cut expectation [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - Precious metals may be under pressure in the short term due to the hawkish statements of Fed officials, and attention should be paid to the upcoming US economic data [1] - Industrial silicon: Northwest production capacity is resuming, Southwest start - up is weaker than usual, and it is affected by polysilicon [1] - Polysilicon: There is an expectation of production - capacity reduction in the long - term, and terminal installation increases marginally in the fourth quarter [1] - Lithium carbonate: It may fluctuate due to the approaching peak season of new energy vehicles, strong energy - storage demand, and high hedging pressure [1] Steel and Iron Ore - For steel products, the off - season effect is not obvious, but the industrial structure is still loose, and attention should be paid to the upward pressure on prices after the macro - sentiment is realized [1] - Iron ore: Direct demand is okay, with cost support, but supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the price rebound space is limited [1] Agricultural Products - Palm oil is expected to run weakly due to the increase in production in the first half of November [1] - Soybean oil has support from domestic consumption demand and export window, but the CBOT soybean's retracement of policy premium has a short - term negative impact [1] - Rapeseed oil: The inability of Canada to cancel tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and plans to increase biodiesel production capacity make it difficult for Canadian rapeseed to be exported to China in the short term, and the basis is stable and slightly strong [1] - Cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driver", and future attention should be paid to relevant policies and planting conditions [1] - Sugar: Global sugar supply turns from shortage to surplus, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be under pressure and follow the trend of raw sugar [1] - Corn: Short - term spot prices are firm, but the selling pressure is postponed, and the upward drive of the futures price is weak [1] - Soybean meal: The short - term upward expectation lacks impetus, and the market may start to trade the selling pressure of South American new crops from December to January [1] Energy and Chemicals - Fuel oil: Affected by OPEC+ production increase, geopolitical factors, and trade policies, it is expected to fluctuate [1] - Asphalt: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it is expected to decline due to factors such as the possible falsification of the "14th Five - Year Plan" construction demand [1] - Rubber: Different types of rubber have different price trends affected by factors such as cost, supply - demand, and market atmosphere [1] - PTA and related products: Their prices are affected by factors such as gasoline profit, device maintenance, and raw - material cost [1] - Ethylene glycol: Its price is affected by the decline of crude oil price, the increase of coal price, and the strong expectation of domestic device commissioning [1] - Other chemicals: Their prices are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationship, cost, and device maintenance [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex and volatile trend, with different sectors presenting various characteristics. For example, in the financial derivatives market, stock index futures are showing signs of support after a decline, while bond futures are favored due to a fall in risk appetite. In the agricultural products market, protein meal demand is good, and the US soybean market is strong, while sugar prices are in a range - bound oscillation. In the black metal market, steel prices are in a range - bound oscillation, and iron ore is considered from a bearish perspective. In the non - ferrous metal market, precious metals are under pressure due to the callback of interest - rate cut expectations, and copper is in short - term oscillation [18][22][25][28][58][68][71]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: The decline shows initial signs of support. The market withstood pressure on Monday and traded sideways. Although facing negative news over the weekend, the index did not fall significantly due to the active performance of the lithium - battery industry chain. It is expected to remain in high - level oscillation. Trading strategies include going long at low levels, conducting IM/IC futures - spot arbitrage, and implementing bull spread options [18][20][21][22]. - **Bond Futures**: Risk appetite declined on Monday, and the bond market was favored. Bond futures closed higher across the board. In the short term, the bond market has both bullish and bearish factors, and it is recommended to take a neutral - to - bullish approach. Arbitrage strategies include holding (TL - 3T) positions and trying to go long on the T - contract quarterly - to - next - quarter spread [22][23][24]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The demand is good, and the US soybean market continues to be strong. Driven by positive soybean crushing reports, the US soybean market rose significantly. However, the overall international soybean supply is abundant, and the upside is limited. Domestic soybean meal has a large supply pressure and poor profit. It is recommended to sell wide - straddle options [25][26][27]. - **Sugar**: Domestic sugar mills are gradually starting production, and Zhengzhou sugar prices are in a range - bound oscillation. Globally, major sugar - producing areas are increasing production. The international sugar price shows signs of bottom - building and short - term oscillation. In the domestic market, the supply pressure is increasing, but there is some support for the price. It is recommended to operate within the range for unilateral trading and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [28][30][31][32]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: The differentiation is obvious, and the oscillation continues. The Malaysian palm oil is entering the production - reduction season and will gradually reduce inventory, but the inventory is still at a relatively high level. Soybean oil follows the overall trend of the oil market, and rapeseed oil in China is expected to continue reducing inventory. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines or conduct high - selling and low - buying band operations for unilateral trading [34][35][36]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The spot price continues to rise, and the futures market is in a strong - side oscillation. The US corn futures rebounded, and the domestic northeast corn price is strong, while the north - China corn price is relatively stable. It is recommended to go long on the 12 - month US corn on dips, stay on the sidelines for the 01 - month corn, and wait for dips for the 05 - and 07 - month corn. Also, shrink the spread between the 01 - month corn and starch [37][38][39]. - **Hogs**: The supply is generally stable, and the spot price fluctuates slightly. The short - term pressure on hog slaughter has improved, but the overall inventory is still high. It is recommended to short - sell a small amount and sell wide - straddle options [40][41]. - **Peanuts**: The spot price is strong, but the futures market is in bottom - level oscillation. The domestic peanut price is rising, and the import volume has decreased significantly. The oil mill has not purchased in large quantities. It is recommended to go long on the 05 - month peanut on dips, conduct 15 - month peanut reverse arbitrage, and sell pk601 - P - 7600 options [42][43]. - **Eggs**: The demand is average, and the egg price is stable with a slight decline. The number of laying hens is still at a high level, and the short - term production - capacity reduction is expected to be slow. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for all trading strategies [45][46][49][50]. - **Apples**: The demand is average, and the fruit price is mainly stable. The cold - storage inventory is lower than last year, but the market is in the off - season, and the sales space is squeezed. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines due to the strong fundamentals but large price fluctuations [51][52][54]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The fundamental contradiction is not significant, and the cotton price is in oscillation. In November, new cotton is on the market in large quantities, and the demand is in the off - season. Considering the optimistic result of Sino - US trade negotiations, it is expected to oscillate in the short term. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for all trading strategies [55][56][57]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Steel prices are in a range - bound oscillation, and there is still room to reduce hot - metal production. The night - session steel prices continued to oscillate, and the coal and coke prices fell significantly. The overall output of the five major steel products declined last week, and the inventory continued to decline. It is recommended to stay in the range - bound oscillation for unilateral trading and go long on the coil - to - rebar spread for arbitrage [58][59]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Market sentiment has weakened, and some coal varieties have corrected from high levels. The coking - coal spot market has a fear of high prices, and the auction failure rate has increased. The fourth round of coke price increases has been implemented. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines in the short term and consider going long on dips in the medium term [60][61][62]. - **Iron Ore**: Take a bearish approach. The iron - ore price fell slightly in the night session. The supply is at a high level in the fourth quarter, and the domestic demand is weak. It is expected to operate weakly at a high level. It is recommended to short - sell for unilateral trading [63][64][65]. - **Ferroalloys**: Supply and demand are both weak, and the price is in a range - bound oscillation supported by costs. The spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are stable with a slight increase. The supply and demand are both weak, and the cost is rising. It is recommended to stay in the bottom - level oscillation for unilateral trading and sell out - of - the - money straddle options [66][67]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Precious Metals**: The expectation of interest - rate cuts continues to correct, and precious metals are under pressure. The prices of London gold and silver fell, and the US dollar index rebounded. Due to the hawkish signals from the Fed and market risk - aversion, precious metals are under pressure. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for all trading strategies [68][69][70][71]. - **Copper**: Short - term oscillation. The copper price is under pressure due to the decreased probability of a December interest - rate cut. The supply has decreased, and the inventory has changed. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for all trading strategies, with a long - term bullish view [71][72][73]. - **Alumina**: There is a production - reduction expectation overseas, and the spot price has stabilized. The short - term supply and demand are still in surplus, but the downstream is stocking up. Overseas, there is a supply gap and a production - reduction expectation. It is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term and may rebound after production reduction [74][75][77]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Pay attention to this week's economic data and capital flow. The fundamentals are still strong. The overseas aluminum market is in short supply, and the domestic consumption has resilience. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines in the short term and be bullish in the medium term [78][79]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The alloy price mainly follows the aluminum price. The cost provides support, but the market trading activity has decreased. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for unilateral trading [80][81][83][84]. - **Zinc**: Wide - range oscillation. The domestic mine supply is tight, and some smelters are reducing production. The export enthusiasm is high. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines and go long on dips for unilateral trading, and hold the SHFE - LME arbitrage [85][87][88][89]. - **Lead**: Range - bound oscillation. The domestic lead - recycling enterprises are resuming production, and the downstream consumption is weakening. The inventory is increasing. It is recommended to take partial profit on short positions and pay attention to macro factors [90][91]. - **Nickel**: The cost is weakening, and the nickel price is oscillating downward. The supply exceeds demand, and the cost support is weakening. It is recommended to short - sell on rebounds and sell out - of - the - money call options [92][93]. - **Stainless Steel**: Supply and demand are both weak, and raw materials are under pressure. The market is weak, and the cost is declining. It is recommended to short - sell on rebounds [94][95][96]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Oscillating weakly. The demand has weakened in November, and some enterprises have stopped production. The price is expected to be in a weak oscillation, and Si2512 and Si2601 contract positive arbitrage is recommended [97]. - **Polysilicon**: Oscillate until the platform company is established. The supply and demand both decreased in November, and the supply reduction is greater. The spot is firm, but the futures may fall if the platform company is not established. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines and take profit on PS2512 and PS2601 positive arbitrage [98][99][100].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are mentioned in the provided reports. 2. Core Views 2.1 Oils and Fats Industry - Palm oil is expected to maintain low - level volatility or weak rebounds due to concerns about slowing exports. Domestic Dalian palm oil futures will fluctuate between 8600 - 8700 yuan, and there is pressure to weaken further. Port inventories are expected to rise as demand weakens with falling temperatures [1]. - For soybean oil, the 2025/26 US soybean oil supply is up, but the ending stocks are down. This supports CBOT soybean oil. In China, spot prices rose slightly, and the basis was stable. Factory soybean oil inventories changed little, with a balance between production and demand [1]. 2.2 Pig Industry - Spot pig prices are weak. The market is actively selling pigs, and slaughterhouses have no difficulty in procurement, suppressing prices. The market is in a weak range - bound pattern. The 3 - 7 reverse spread strategy can be continued [3]. 2.3 Meal Industry - The USDA's November supply - demand balance sheet was in line with market expectations. US soybeans lack substantial bullish factors and face difficulties in continuing to rise. China's 13% tariff on US soybeans affects exports. Domestic soybean meal supply is loose, and prices will maintain wide - range fluctuations [8]. 2.4 Corn Industry - In the corn market, prices in the Northeast are strong due to increased stocking, and those in North China are stable as the number of delivery vehicles to deep - processing plants increases. There is a selling pressure expectation due to a bumper harvest. The demand side shows good deep - processing profits and limited feed - end restocking. Corn prices may have a limited rebound [10]. 2.5 Sugar Industry - India allows 25/26 sugar exports of 1.5 million tons, but short - term exports may be difficult. Brazil is approaching the end of the harvest, with a loose supply. The raw sugar price is expected to consolidate around 14 cents/pound. The sugar market is expected to maintain a volatile trend this week [14]. 2.6 Cotton Industry - The November USDA cotton supply - demand balance sheet is bearish. Globally, production increased significantly while demand increased slightly, and ending stocks rose. In China, new cotton listings bring short - term pressure, and downstream demand is weak overall, but some products support cotton prices. Short - term cotton prices may be under pressure [15]. 2.7 Egg Industry - The number of laying hens in production remains high, and the supply is loose. The market is in a seasonal off - peak period, and demand is weak. Although the decline in egg prices has not widened, there is insufficient positive support. The market is expected to be in a weak and volatile pattern, and short positions in the near - month contracts can be gradually closed [17][18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats Industry - **Soybean Oil**: The 2025/26 US soybean oil supply is adjusted to 32.276 billion pounds. Ending stocks are down 1.4% year - on - year. In China, the spot price rose slightly, and the basis was stable. Factory inventories changed little [1]. - **Palm Oil**: Affected by export concerns, it will maintain low - level volatility. Domestic Dalian palm oil futures will fluctuate between 8600 - 8700 yuan. Port inventories are expected to rise [1]. - **Price and Spread Changes**: The basis of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil changed, and there were also changes in cross - period spreads and inter - variety spreads [1]. 3.2 Pig Industry - **Futures Indicators**: The main contract basis decreased by 120.00%, and the prices of pig 2605 and pig 2601 decreased by 0.45% and 0.68% respectively [3]. - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices in various regions decreased, with the largest decline of 400 yuan/ton in Guangdong [3]. - **Spot Indicators**: The daily slaughter volume increased slightly by 0.05%, and the self - breeding and purchased - piglet breeding profits decreased by 28.70% and 17.15% respectively [3]. 3.3 Meal Industry - **Price Changes**: The prices of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and soybeans changed. The basis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal also had significant changes [8]. - **Market Situation**: The USDA's report was in line with expectations. US soybeans lack bullish factors, and China's tariff affects exports. Domestic soybean meal supply is loose [8]. 3.4 Corn Industry - **Corn**: The price of corn 2601 decreased slightly, and the basis increased by 92.00%. The north - south trade profit decreased by 34.48% [10]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2601 decreased by 0.64%, and the basis increased by 320.00% [10]. 3.5 Sugar Industry - **Futures Market**: The prices of sugar 2601 and sugar 2605 decreased by 0.22% and 0.11% respectively, and the ICE raw sugar main contract decreased by 0.67% [14]. - **Spot Market**: The price in Nanning decreased by 1.06%, and that in Kunming increased by 0.54%. Imported sugar prices from Brazil increased [14]. - **Industry Situation**: National sugar production and sales increased year - on - year, but the national sales rate decreased. Industrial inventories in some regions increased, and imports increased [14]. 3.6 Cotton Industry - **Futures Market**: The prices of cotton 2605 and cotton 2601 decreased slightly, and the ICE US cotton main contract increased slightly [15]. - **Spot Market**: The price of Xinjiang cotton and the CC Index decreased slightly, while the difference between the CC Index and the FC Index increased [15]. - **Industry Situation**: Commercial and industrial inventories increased, imports increased, but textile exports decreased [15]. 3.7 Egg Industry - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The prices of egg 12 and egg 01 contracts decreased, and the spot price in the production area decreased by 0.82% [17]. - **Related Indicators**: Egg - to - feed ratio increased by 2.56%, and the breeding profit increased by 13.05% [17]. - **Market Situation**: The number of laying hens in production is high, supply is loose, and demand is weak in the short term [17][18].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has converged again, and the domestic risk appetite has weakened. The market needs to pay attention to the US non - farm payroll data and the earnings reports of the US stock technology sector this week. In the domestic market, although there is a possibility of reaching a new high this year, it is necessary to guard against the risk of a phased correction. The bond market is likely to maintain a relatively strong and volatile pattern in the short term [2][3]. - Precious metals are in a phased adjustment, and it is necessary to continue to pay attention to the speeches of Fed officials and the US non - farm payroll data [4][5]. - Copper prices are expected to fall from high levels in the short term due to increased sanctions on Russia and the Fed's hawkish attitude [6][7]. - Aluminum prices continue to adjust due to the decline in the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and the increase in domestic aluminum ingot supply [8]. - Alumina is in a weak and volatile state as the supply pressure remains high [9][10]. - The decline of the casting aluminum price is expected to be limited as the cost provides support and there is replenishment demand in the future [11]. - Zinc prices are in a weak and volatile state as the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in December has cooled and the dollar index has rebounded [12]. - Lead prices are expected to adjust following the decline of LME lead, and it is necessary to pay attention to the support of the 40 - day moving average [13][14]. - Tin prices are expected to maintain a high - level adjustment as the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in December has declined and the fundamentals have limited driving force [15]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation as the supply and demand contradiction is not significant [16][17]. - Lithium carbonate prices may continue to rise, but it is necessary to be vigilant against the impact of demand falling short of expectations and increased imports [18][19]. - Nickel prices are expected to oscillate at a low level, and it is necessary to pay attention to the opportunity of going long at a low price [20][21]. - The prices of soda ash and glass are expected to oscillate at a low level as the demand has no bright spots [22][23]. - Steel prices are expected to oscillate as the supply pressure has decreased after the steel mills' production cuts, but the weak demand pattern remains unchanged [24]. - Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate as the supply pressure remains and the iron - making output has rebounded slightly [25]. - The prices of coking coal and coke are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term as the supply has increased marginally and the market sentiment has declined [26]. - The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term as the external market has strengthened and the domestic inventory has reached an inflection point [27][29]. - Palm oil prices are expected to oscillate in the short term as the production has increased and the demand has decreased [30][31]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macroeconomic Situation - Overseas: The Fed has internal differences. Vice - Chairman Jefferson believes that the interest rate is approaching the neutral level and the subsequent interest rate cut needs to be cautious. The next Fed Chairman candidate Waller supports a 25 - bp interest rate cut in December. The market - priced probability of an interest rate cut in December has dropped to 43%. The US dollar index has rebounded to 99.5, the US stocks have risen and then fallen, and the 10 - year US Treasury bond yield has oscillated and fallen to 4.13%. Gold, copper, and oil prices have all adjusted [2]. - Domestic: The A - share market has oscillated and adjusted, and the trading volume of the two markets has fallen to 1.93 trillion. The margin trading balance has basically remained flat since November, indicating a weakening willingness to add leverage. The bond market is in a volatile period without a clear main line and is likely to maintain a relatively strong and volatile pattern in the short term [3]. Precious Metals - On Monday, international precious metal futures prices continued to fall. COMEX gold futures fell 1.20% to $4045.10 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 1.25% to $50.05 per ounce. The market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has been weakening, and precious metal prices have fallen for three consecutive days. In addition, the low physical demand in the Asian market and Indonesia's plan to impose an export tax on gold products have also affected the prices [4]. Copper - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai copper oscillated and fell, and LME copper adjusted to around $10,700 to seek support. The US has increased sanctions on Russia, and the Fed has different attitudes towards interest rate cuts, with the probability of an interest rate cut in December dropping to 57%. Fundamentally, the shortage of ore supply continues, and domestic refined copper production has declined. It is expected that copper prices will fall from high levels in the short term [6][7]. Aluminum - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 21,725 yuan per ton, down 1.14%. The LME aluminum price also fell. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods has increased. The Fed's recent statements have affected the decline of the interest rate cut expectation, and the domestic aluminum supply has increased. The previous positive factors have faded, and aluminum prices continue to adjust [8]. Alumina - On Monday, the main contract of alumina futures closed at 2,817 yuan per ton, down 0.7%. The domestic and foreign spot prices of alumina have shown a trend of stabilizing after falling, and the market is in a wait - and - see state. The supply side is expected to cut production due to cost pressure and environmental protection policies, and alumina is in a weak and volatile state [9][10]. Casting Aluminum - On Monday, the main contract of casting aluminum alloy futures closed at 20,990 yuan per ton, down 1.11%. The cost of scrap aluminum provides support, and there is replenishment demand in the future. It is expected that the decline of casting aluminum prices will be limited [11]. Zinc - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc oscillated weakly. The supply of zinc in the market is still tight, and the inventory has decreased slightly. The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in December has cooled, and the US dollar index has rebounded, putting pressure on zinc prices. The zinc market has both positive and negative factors, and zinc prices are in a weak and volatile state [12]. Lead - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai lead fell. The LME lead inventory has increased significantly, dragging down the price of LME lead, and Shanghai lead has also adjusted weakly. The production of primary lead smelters has recovered, while some secondary lead smelters have cut production. The consumption of electric bicycles has weakened, and the social inventory has increased slightly. It is expected that lead prices will follow the adjustment of LME lead [13][14]. Tin - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai tin oscillated at a high level. The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in December has declined, and the market sentiment has tightened. The improvement of the raw material supply is limited, and the downstream is cautious about purchasing high - priced tin. The inventory has increased for two consecutive weeks. It is expected that tin prices will maintain a high - level adjustment [15]. Industrial Silicon - On Monday, industrial silicon oscillated narrowly. The supply side has slightly converged, and the demand side has different situations in different sectors. The social inventory has decreased slightly, and the spot market has generally stabilized. It is expected that industrial silicon prices will maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term [16][17]. Lithium Carbonate - On Monday, lithium carbonate prices rose strongly. The supply of lithium carbonate has reached a new high, but the inventory has decreased, and the destocking has accelerated. The market has a strong ability to absorb lithium carbonate. The bullish sentiment in the market is strong, which may push lithium carbonate prices higher, but attention should be paid to the impact of demand falling short of expectations and increased imports [18][19]. Nickel - On Monday, nickel prices oscillated weakly. The inventory of nickel at home and abroad has increased significantly, putting pressure on nickel prices. However, the current price has touched the cost line of some production capacities, and the downstream procurement is active. Indonesia has begun to control the nickel industry. It is expected that nickel prices will oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long at a low price [20][21]. Soda Ash and Glass - On Monday, the main contract of soda ash oscillated, and the glass price was also at a low - level oscillation. The demand for soda ash and glass has no bright spots. The inventory of soda ash has decreased significantly, but the glass market is still weak. It is expected that the prices of soda ash and glass will oscillate at a low level [22][23]. Steel - On Monday, steel futures oscillated and rebounded. The production of the five major steel products has decreased, and the inventory has declined, but the demand is still weak. It is expected that steel prices will oscillate [24]. Iron Ore - On Monday, iron ore futures oscillated and rebounded. The overseas arrival volume has decreased, but the shipping volume has increased, and the port inventory has continued to increase. The iron - making output has rebounded slightly. It is expected that iron ore prices will oscillate [25]. Coking Coal and Coke - On Monday, coking coal and coke futures oscillated weakly. The production of coking coal has rebounded from a low level, and the fourth - round price increase of coke has been implemented. The downstream steel mills' iron - making output has rebounded, but the demand for raw materials is expected to weaken. It is expected that the prices of coking coal and coke will oscillate weakly in the short term [26]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - On Monday, the prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures fell, but the external market has strengthened. The US soybean crushing volume in October exceeded expectations, and the Brazilian soybean planting progress is normal. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at a high level but have reached an inflection point. It is expected that the prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal will oscillate strongly in the short term [28][29]. Palm Oil - On Monday, palm oil futures rose slightly. The production of Malaysian palm oil in the first half of November has increased, while the export demand has decreased. The domestic palm oil inventory has increased. It is expected that palm oil prices will oscillate in the short term [30][31].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report Financial Futures - Overseas, focus on US economic data and the impact of the government shutdown; in China, pay attention to policy support due to a marginal slowdown in the economy [1]. - The RMB exchange rate is expected to strengthen with the weakening of the US dollar index and seasonal effects, but caution is needed before new data is released [2]. - The stock index is expected to continue to fluctuate, with a focus on overseas variables such as US economic data, NVIDIA's Q3 earnings, and Sino - Japanese relations [5]. - Hold medium - term long positions in Treasury bonds, as they may benefit from weakening risk sentiment in the capital market, but short - term fluctuations are expected [5]. Commodities - Precious metals are expected to continue to adjust in the short term due to divergent expectations of a December interest rate cut, but may rise in the long term [13]. - Copper prices lack drivers and are expected to have a technical adjustment; aluminum may experience high - level oscillations; zinc, lead, and tin are expected to oscillate; nickel and stainless steel are at the bottom with limited further decline space; lithium carbonate may be over - inflated and risky for chasing highs; industrial silicon may have wide - range oscillations, and polysilicon may be weaker [17][18][24]. Black Metals - Rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to oscillate within a range, with support from raw material costs and suppression from inventory [29]. - Iron ore has a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern, and opportunities for shorting at high levels can be considered after the basis is repaired [31]. - Coking coal and coke may face short - term adjustment pressure but have limited downside space in the long term, and can be considered for long positions when the price approaches the lower end of the range [34]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to oscillate weakly due to high inventory and weak demand [36]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil is in an oscillating and pressured state, with short - term attention on the support at $63 and long - term focus on geopolitical risks and macro - funds' hedging trends [38]. - LPG is expected to oscillate strongly; PX - PTA is expected to oscillate strongly with cost; MEG can be considered for selling call options to express a bearish view; methanol 01 may continue to decline; PP's short - term supply - demand situation has improved, and a 1 - 5 positive spread is supported; PE's short - term supply - demand has slightly improved, but the medium - long - term pattern is weak; pure benzene and styrene may have limited rebound height; fuel oil's high - sulfur cracking is bearish, and low - sulfur fuel oil's cracking has upward momentum; asphalt's short - term bottom space is limited, and winter - storage willingness should be noted; glass, soda ash, and caustic soda have their own characteristics in terms of supply, demand, and price trends [39][41][49]. Pulp, Wood, and Related Products - Pulp and offset paper are expected to oscillate with a slightly downward - shifted price center; logs can be considered for a 01 - 03 reverse spread strategy; propylene is expected to oscillate [70][72][75]. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Futures Macro - Overseas: The US government shutdown has ended, and attention should be paid to economic data and the impact on the economy. Fed personnel changes have attracted market attention, and if Hassett is elected as the Fed chair, it may further open up the space for interest rate cuts. - Domestic: The economy shows a marginal slowdown, and the intensity and effectiveness of policy support are the focus [1]. RMB Exchange Rate - The RMB has strengthened against the US dollar due to the weakening of the US dollar index, the guidance of the central parity rate, and market settlement support. Attention should be paid to US employment data and domestic corporate settlement willingness [2]. Stock Index - The stock index oscillated, with a decline in trading volume. The overall market sentiment was relatively stable, and short - term oscillations are expected, with a focus on overseas variables [5]. Treasury Bonds - Treasury bonds rose slightly, and in the short term, they may continue to oscillate, while in the medium term, they may rise with fundamental support [5]. Commodities Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices continued to adjust due to divergent expectations of a December interest rate cut. Long - term funds' gold ETF holdings decreased, and silver ETF holdings remained stable. Attention should be paid to US economic data and Fed officials' speeches [13]. Copper - Copper prices declined slightly, with an increase in warehouse receipts and a decrease in basis. The supply was relatively stable, and the demand showed some improvement, but the price lacked a clear driver [17]. Aluminum Industry Chain - Aluminum prices declined due to profit - taking by some funds. The supply was expected to be tight overseas, but domestic demand was weak. Alumina was in an oversupply situation, and cast aluminum alloy had certain support [18]. Zinc - Zinc prices oscillated narrowly. The smelting end had a strong demand for ore, and the TC decreased in November. The inventory situation needed to be observed, and the market had large differences between bulls and bears [21]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Nickel and stainless steel prices were weak, with cost support weakening. The 12 - month interest rate cut expectation was uncertain, and the demand for nickel and stainless steel was weak [22]. Tin - Tin prices oscillated narrowly. The supply was weaker than the demand due to limited resumption of production in Wabang. It was recommended to enter the market on dips [23]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices rose significantly, but the downstream had no intention to replenish inventory. There was an over - inflation risk, and caution was needed when chasing highs [24]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon had a weak supply - demand pattern and was expected to oscillate widely. Polysilicon had a weak fundamental situation and was expected to oscillate weakly [25]. Lead - Lead prices were under pressure due to inventory accumulation. The supply was gradually returning to balance, and it was expected to oscillate [27]. Black Metals Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - Rebar and hot - rolled coils rebounded slightly, with a marginal improvement in the supply - demand balance of rebar and high inventory pressure on hot - rolled coils. The cost of iron ore was under pressure, and the profit of steel enterprises was declining [29]. Iron Ore - Iron ore prices rebounded significantly, with an increase in shipping volume and a decrease in arrival volume. The supply was strong, the demand was weak, and the inventory was accumulating. It was recommended to short at high levels after the basis was repaired [31]. Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal and coke prices fell below the key support level. The supply of coking coal was marginally relaxed, and the demand was seasonally weak. However, the price had limited downside space in the long term [34]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese prices rebounded slightly due to environmental inspections, but the high - inventory situation remained unchanged. The demand was expected to decline, and they were expected to oscillate weakly [36]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Crude oil prices declined slightly, with a supply - demand imbalance and geopolitical risks. The price was expected to oscillate within a range, and attention should be paid to the support at $63 [38]. LPG - LPG prices rose, with a decrease in supply and an increase in demand. The inventory was decreasing, and it was expected to oscillate strongly [40]. PX - PTA - PX - PTA prices rose, with a strengthening of the aromatics blending logic and an improvement in the supply - demand of PTA. The processing fee was repaired, but the oversupply expectation remained [45]. MEG - Bottle Chips - MEG prices rebounded due to supply - side accidents. The demand was relatively stable, and it was recommended to sell call options to express a bearish view [49]. Methanol - Methanol prices continued to decline, with pressure on the 01 contract due to high supply and limited cost support. It was recommended to hold short positions and consider reverse spreads [51]. PP - PP prices oscillated at the bottom, with an increase in supply and a slight increase in demand. The cost support was strengthening, and a 1 - 5 positive spread was supported [54]. PE - PE prices rebounded slightly, with high supply pressure and limited demand growth. The short - term supply - demand improved slightly, but the medium - long - term pattern was weak [57]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene and styrene prices rebounded at a low level, but the fundamentals did not change significantly, and the rebound height was limited [59]. Fuel Oil - High - sulfur fuel oil cracking was bearish due to weak demand, and low - sulfur fuel oil cracking had upward momentum due to supply reduction expectations [60][63]. Asphalt - Asphalt prices fell, with an increase in supply and a decrease in demand. The inventory structure improved, and the short - term bottom space was limited. Attention should be paid to winter - storage willingness [64]. Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda - Soda ash prices were limited by high supply and cost support; glass prices were under pressure due to high inventory and weak production and sales; caustic soda prices were affected by high supply and weak downstream replenishment [66][68][69]. Pulp, Wood, and Related Products Pulp and Offset Paper - Pulp prices were slightly affected by macro - sentiment and inventory, with some support from supply - side factors. Offset paper prices continued to decline due to lack of fundamental support [70]. Logs - Log prices were low - volatility, and attention should be paid to the 01 - 03 reverse spread opportunity [72]. Propylene - Propylene prices oscillated, with a supply - demand balance of supply reduction and demand increase. The demand side was affected by PP and other downstream industries, and it was expected to oscillate [75].

Group 1: Energy and Petrochemicals - Crude oil market faces increasing supply - demand pressure in Q4 and Q1 next year, with medium - term downward risk in oil prices. Short - term focus is on Russian oil export impact after sanctions and risks from Venezuela and Iran. Brent 01 contract dropped 0.4% overnight [2] - Precious metals are in a high - level consolidation phase. Fed officials' hawkish remarks have reduced the probability of a December rate cut below 50%. The market awaits economic data for further guidance [3] - Fuel oil prices follow crude oil. High - sulfur fuel oil has short - term geopolitical support, but medium - term supply will be more abundant. Low - sulfur fuel oil has a stronger recent performance due to supply disruptions, but medium - term supply pressure remains [20] - Asphalt has weakening cost support and poor demand, with a bearish outlook in the medium - to - long term [21] - LPG is expected to be bullish due to tightened supply - demand [22] Group 2: Base Metals - Copper market is oscillating between 85,000 - 88,000 yuan. High - level short positions can be held with a stop - loss at 88,000 yuan. Attention is on the impact of the landslide in a Congolese copper mine [4] - Aluminum has a short - term weak fundamental situation with inventory increases, but the medium - term upward trend is not reversed [5] - Zinc prices may fall, with support at 22,200 yuan/ton for SHFE zinc. LME zinc may break through the support level [8] - Lead prices are expected to decline further, with support at 17,100 yuan/ton [9] - Tin prices are oscillating. Long - term short positions can be held with a stop - loss at 295,000 yuan [10] Group 3: Industrial Metals and Related Products - Polysilicon prices are in a narrow - range fluctuation. PV terminal demand is weak, and short - term prices are expected to oscillate [11] - Industrial silicon is in a supply - demand weak situation, with prices expected to oscillate [12] - Iron ore supply has increased significantly, and demand is weak. The market is expected to oscillate [14] - Coke and coking coal prices are likely to oscillate due to sufficient carbon supply and downstream pressure on raw material prices [15][16] - Silicomanganese and ferrosilicon prices are supported by demand and cost factors [17][18] Group 4: Steel Products - Steel prices fell at night. Rebar demand is weak in the off - season, and hot - rolled coil demand is stable. Supply pressure is gradually easing, and prices may rebound in the short term [13] Group 5: Shipping - The SCFIS European route index dropped 9.8% last week. It may rebound in the next period. The 12 - contract is expected to oscillate, and far - month contracts will be under pressure [19] Group 6: Chemicals - Urea futures are strong, but the spot price is stable with a slight decline. Supply is high, and the market may weaken [23] - Methanol prices are weak due to increased supply and weak demand [24] - Pure benzene has limited upside potential, and PTA follows PX fluctuations [29] - Ethylene glycol supply is increasing, and demand is weakening, with a bearish outlook [30] - PVC may oscillate narrowly, and caustic soda is in a weak position [28] Group 7: Agricultural Products - Soybeans and soybean meal: The USDA November report is bullish. South American soybean planting progress is slow. Domestic soybean supply is sufficient, and there are opportunities for long positions at low prices [35] - Vegetable oils: Soybean oil is strong, and palm oil supply - demand pressure persists [36] - Corn futures may wait for a correction [38] - Live pigs' spot and futures prices are weak, with a high probability of a second bottom - testing next year [39] - Eggs: Spot prices are stable with a slight decline, and short positions in near - month contracts can be held [40] - Cotton: The US agricultural report is bearish. Domestic cotton has supply pressure, and prices are expected to oscillate [41] - Sugar: International supply is sufficient, and domestic production in Guangxi has positive expectations [41] - Apples: Short - term prices are strong, but long - term inventory pressure may exist [42] Group 8: Forestry and Pulp - Wood prices are supported by low inventory, and short - term observation is recommended [43] - Pulp futures are slightly down. Inventory has increased, and prices are expected to improve in the long term but have limited short - term upside [44] Group 9: Financial Futures - Stock index futures are expected to oscillate due to unstable global macro - liquidity. Consider profit - taking in growth stocks and look for opportunities in consumption and cyclical sectors [45] - Treasury bond futures are in a narrow - range oscillation. The yield curve steepening may end [46]

广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88818009 E-Mail：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 目录： 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银 集运欧线 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、氧化铝、铝、铝合金、锌、锡、镍、不锈钢、碳酸锂、工业硅、多 晶硅 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、红枣、苹果 能源化工： PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、纯苯、短纤、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、PP、 甲醇、合成橡胶、橡胶、玻璃纯碱 2025 年 11 月 18 日星期二 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨询资格：Z0010559） 电话：020-81868743 邮箱：zhoumingbo@gf.com.cn 朱迪（投资咨询资格：Z0015979） 电话：020-88818008 邮箱：zhudi@gf.com.cn 陈尚宇（投资咨询资 ...

Core Insights - The Jiangsu Provincial Department of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has launched a three-year action plan (2025-2027) to promote the optimization and upgrading of the agricultural product processing industry [1][2] - The action plan includes six major initiatives aimed at enhancing the agricultural product processing sector, focusing on innovation, quality, and integration with rural development [1][2] Group 1: Action Plan Initiatives - The action plan proposes the cultivation of "single champion" enterprises in agricultural product processing, the expansion of emerging industries, and the enhancement of processing parks and clusters [1] - It emphasizes the establishment of a matrix of leading agricultural enterprises and the classification of agricultural product processing enterprises for targeted development [1][2] - The plan aims to create a national advantage in characteristic industrial clusters and strong towns, along with the formation of industry technology innovation alliances [1] Group 2: Technological and Industry Development - The plan advocates for multi-level processing of agricultural products, focusing on diversified development, multi-level utilization, and value addition across various stages [2] - It supports the upgrading of processing facilities and equipment to enhance standardization, high-end, intelligent, and green processing levels [2] - The plan encourages the application of emerging technologies such as synthetic biology in agriculture, aiming for significant breakthroughs in functional substance extraction and other areas [2] Group 3: Industry Growth and Trends - Jiangsu has seen significant growth in its agricultural product processing industry, with over 9,000 large-scale processing enterprises expected by 2024 [2] - New industries and business models, particularly in functional substance extraction and marine biology, are emerging as important growth drivers [2]

证券日报网讯 11月17日晚间，农产品发布公告称，公司将参加由深圳证监局和中证中小投资者服务中 心指导、深圳上市公司协会与深圳市全景网络有限公司联合举办的"2025年度深圳辖区上市公司投资者 网上集体接待日活动"，活动时间为2025年11月20日（星期四）14：30-17：00。 （文章来源：证券日报） ...

行 业 定 期 报 告 生猪养殖：（1）10 月销售简报：猪企出栏增量、均价下跌。出栏方 面，10月17家猪企合计出栏生猪1732.42万头，环比+22.51%，同比+29.29%。 均价方面，10 月行业供给压力较大，猪价大幅下跌。上市猪企销售均价同 步下降，10 月 13 家猪企生猪销售均价为 11.66 元/公斤，环比-11.12%，同 比-33.94%。（2）上周行情：上周猪价震荡偏弱运行。周初降温消费好转， 叠加散户惜售情绪增强，推动价格反弹；周中养殖端出栏节奏开始加快， 导致猪价由涨转跌。11 月 14 日猪价 11.66 元/公斤，周环比-0.19 元/公斤。 上周出栏均重继续回升。集团场月初缩量后于周内恢复正常出栏节奏，叠 加气温下降促进猪只日增重提升，出栏均重回升；肥标价差相对高位情况 下，散养户及二育户出栏大体重猪为主。11 月 13 日当周生猪出栏均重 128.48kg，周环比+0.18kg。展望后市，近期养殖已陷入亏损状态，叠加产 能调控政策推进，行业产能去化预期增强，有望推动长期猪价中枢上移， 低成本 优质猪企将获 得超额收益。10 月涌益 /钢联/卓创能 繁环比 -0.77%/+0 ...