货需求，冷饮等季节性消费可能回暖，为价格带来一定支撑，短期呈现反弹走势。后期关注到港和夏季消 研究员: 张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0018457 费情况。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 白糖产业日报 2025-06-26 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:白糖(日,元/吨) | 5790 | 33 主力合约持仓量:白糖(日,手) | 326870 | -15891 | | | 仓单数量:白糖(日,张) | 24302 | -310 ...

Group 1 - The report from Itaú BBA predicts a 5% decrease in sugarcane crushing volume in Brazil's central-southern region for the 2025/26 season, amounting to 590 million tons, with significant declines in the western and northwestern parts of São Paulo state [1] - Despite the decrease in crushing volume, sugar production is expected to increase by 2.7% to 41.2 million tons, with a sugar-to-cane ratio of 52% and an ATR (Total Recoverable Sugar) of 141 kg/ton [1] - Current spot prices for sugar in China show an increase, with Guangxi Sugar Group reporting prices between 6000 - 6080 yuan/ton, up by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, while Yunnan Sugar Group's prices remain stable at 5790 - 5830 yuan/ton [1] Group 2 - The cotton market is experiencing upward movement, with ICE cotton prices rising by 0.78% to 68.32 cents per pound, and domestic cotton prices in Xinjiang increasing by 65 yuan/ton to 14832 yuan/ton [1] - The overall market sentiment is improving, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 1% for two consecutive days, and cotton prices in Zhengzhou breaking through 13600 yuan/ton due to low commercial inventories and weather disturbances in Xinjiang [1] - The macroeconomic environment is showing signs of improvement, with expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which has led to a slight strengthening of cotton prices, although the fundamental drivers remain limited [1]

Core Insights - ICE raw sugar futures prices have reached a four-year low, indicating a significant downturn in the market [1] - A global oversupply warning in the sugar market has been issued, primarily attributed to increased production in India and Thailand [1] Industry Summary - The sugar market is currently facing an oversupply situation, which is leading to declining prices [1] - India and Thailand are identified as the main contributors to the increased sugar production, exacerbating the supply issue [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - Internationally, with the arrival of the monsoon season, the prospects of major sugar - producing countries in Asia have improved, with expectations of a recovery in production. Coupled with the increased supply of Brazilian sugar, the price of raw sugar is suppressed. Domestically, in May 2025, China's sugar imports were 350,000 tons, a significant increase of 220,000 tons compared to April and a sharp increase of 1954.9% year - on - year. The import window is open, and the import pressure has increased. However, approaching the summer consumption peak season, the food and beverage industry has inventory needs. Seasonal consumption such as cold drinks may pick up, providing some support for prices, slowing down the decline, and showing a short - term adjustment trend. Later, pay attention to the arrival of goods at ports and summer consumption [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract for sugar is 5,757 yuan/ton, up 47 from the previous period; the main contract position is 342,761 lots, down 6,312; the number of warehouse receipts is 24,612, down 150; the net long position of the top 20 futures positions is - 59,196 lots, up 4,497; the effective warehouse receipt forecast is 0, unchanged [2] 现货市场 - The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,450 yuan/ton, up 57; the estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,653 yuan/ton, up 75; the estimated import processing price of Thai sugar within the quota is 4,460 yuan/ton, up 45; the estimated import price of Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,665 yuan/ton, up 59; the spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5,860 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Nanning is 6,070 yuan/ton, up 30; in Liuzhou is 6,110 yuan/ton, up 20 [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop planting area is 1,480 thousand hectares, up 60; the cumulative national sugar production is 1,116.21 million tons; the cumulative national sugar sales volume is 835.09 million tons, down 12.86; the planting area of sugar - cane in Guangxi is 811.38 thousand hectares, up 86.92 [2] Industry Situation - The national industrial inventory of sugar is 304.83 million tons, down 81.43; the national sugar sales rate is 72.69%, up 7.47; the monthly import volume of sugar is 350,000 tons, up 220,000; the total monthly sugar exports from Brazil are 2.2566 billion tons, up 704,000; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,460 yuan/ton, down 66; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,470 yuan/ton, down 54; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 267 yuan/ton, down 84; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 255 yuan/ton, down 68 [2] Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of refined sugar production is 16.7%, up 2.6; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft drink production is 3%, down 0.9 [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 9.36%, down 2; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for sugar is 9.36%, down 2; the 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 6.99%, up 1.42; the 60 - day historical volatility of sugar is 8.83%, up 0.3 [2] Industry News - The Indonesian Ministry of Agriculture stated that the country's sugar production in 2025 is 2.75 million tons, higher than last year's 2.45 million tons and the highest in the past five years. Internationally, with the arrival of the monsoon season, the prospects of major sugar - producing countries in Asia have improved, with expectations of a recovery in production [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - International factors such as the approaching monsoon season improving the outlook of major Asian sugar - producing countries with expected production recovery and increased Brazilian sugar supply are suppressing raw sugar prices. In China, the sugar import volume in May 2025 reached 350,000 tons, a significant increase of 220,000 tons from April and a surge of 1954.9% year - on - year. The opening of the import window has increased import pressure and suppressed sugar prices. However, as the summer consumption peak approaches, the food and beverage industry has stocking demand, and seasonal consumption of cold drinks may pick up, providing some support for prices, resulting in a slowdown in the decline and a short - term adjustment trend. Later, attention should be paid to sugar arrivals and summer consumption [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the sugar futures main contract was 5,710 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan; the main contract's open interest was 349,073 lots, down 4,726 lots; the number of sugar warehouse receipts was 24,762, down 2,572; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 63,693 lots; the total of valid warehouse receipt forecasts for sugar was 0; the estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 4,450 yuan/ton, up 57 yuan; and that of Thai sugar was 4,460 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan [2] 现货市场 - The estimated price of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota (with a 50% tariff) was 5,653 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan; that of imported Thai sugar was 5,665 yuan/ton, up 59 yuan; the spot price of white sugar in Kunming was 5,860 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; in Nanning it was 6,040 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; and in Liuzhou it was 6,090 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area was 1,480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares; the sown area of sugar - cane in Guangxi was 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares [2] Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, an increase of 54,900 tons; the cumulative national sugar sales volume was 8.1138 million tons, an increase of 869,200 tons; the national industrial sugar inventory was 3.0483 million tons, a decrease of 814,300 tons; the national sugar sales ratio was 72.69%, an increase of 7.47 percentage points; the monthly sugar import volume was 350,000 tons, an increase of 220,000 tons; the total monthly sugar exports from Brazil were 2.2566 million tons, an increase of 704,000 tons; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current Liuzhou sugar price within the quota was 1,470 yuan/ton, down 66 yuan; that of imported Thai sugar was 1,460 yuan/ton, down 54 yuan; outside the quota (with a 50% tariff), the price difference for Brazilian sugar was 267 yuan/ton, down 84 yuan; and for Thai sugar it was 255 yuan/ton, down 68 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of refined sugar production was 16.7%, up 2.6 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft drink production was 3%, down 0.9 percentage points [2] Options Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar was 11.36%, up 2.54 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options was 11.36%, up 2.59 percentage points; the 20 - day historical volatility of sugar was 5.57%, unchanged; the 60 - day historical volatility was 8.52%, down 0.05 percentage points [2] Industry News - Brazil's foreign trade secretariat data showed that Brazil exported 2,103,033.83 tons of sugar in the first three weeks of June, with an average daily export volume of 150,216.7 tons, a 6% decrease compared to the average daily export volume of the whole of June last year [2]

行业 白糖日报 日期 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635732 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：洪辰亮 请阅读正文后的声明 2025 年 6 月 24 日 研究员：王海峰 021-60635728 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：期货行情 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 收盘价（元/吨 | 美分/磅） | 涨跌 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - International factors such as the improved prospects and expected restorative production increase in major Asian sugar - producing countries due to the monsoon season, along with the increased supply of Brazilian sugar, are suppressing the raw sugar price. In the domestic market, in May 2025, China's sugar imports reached 350,000 tons, a significant increase of 220,000 tons from April and a surge of 1954.9% year - on - year. With the import window open, import pressure is rising, which is putting downward pressure on sugar prices. However, as the summer consumption peak approaches, the food and beverage industry has stocking needs, and seasonal consumption of cold drinks may pick up, providing some support to prices. The sugar price is showing an adjustment trend in the short term, and attention should be paid to sugar arrivals and summer consumption [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the sugar futures main contract was 5,721 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; the main contract position was 353,799 lots, down 15,173 lots. The number of sugar warehouse receipts was 27,334, down 335; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 63,539 lots, down 5,111 lots. The total effective warehouse receipt forecast was 0, with no change [2]. 现货市场 - The estimated import - processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 4,393 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan; that of Thai sugar was 4,415 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan. The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5,578 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; that of Thai sugar was 5,606 yuan/ton, down 56 yuan. The spot price of white sugar in Kunming was 5,865 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Nanning was 6,050 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Liuzhou was 6,100 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sowing area was 1,480 thousand hectares. The cumulative national sugar production was 11.1621 million tons. The sowing area of sugar - cane in Guangxi was 5.49 thousand hectares. The cumulative national sugar sales volume was 8.3509 million tons, down 128,600 tons. The national industrial sugar inventory was 3.0483 million tons, down 814,300 tons. The national sugar sales rate was 72.69%, up 7.47 percentage points. The monthly sugar import volume was 350,000 tons, up 220,000 tons. The total monthly sugar exports from Brazil were 2.2566 million tons, up 704,000 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota was 1,536 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota was 1,514 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 351 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 323 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year increase in refined sugar production was 16.7%, up 2.6 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year increase in soft - drink production was 3%, down 0.9 percentage points [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar was 11.36%, up 2.54 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for sugar was 11.36%, up 2.59 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar was 5.57%, with no change; the 60 - day historical volatility was 8.52%, down 0.05 percentage points [2]. Industry News - On June 23, the sales profit of white sugar produced from imported Brazilian raw sugar in China was about 1,925 yuan/ton within the tariff quota (15% tariff) or 707 yuan/ton outside the tariff quota (50% tariff). The sales profit of white sugar produced from imported Thai raw sugar was about 1,889 yuan/ton within the tariff quota (15% tariff) or 655 yuan/ton outside the tariff quota (50% tariff) [2].

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 06 月 22 日 白糖：反弹 周小球 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com 报告导读： （1）本周市场回顾 国际市场方面，美元指数 98.76（前值 98.15），美元兑巴西雷亚尔 5.50（前值 5.56），WTI 原油价 格 74.04 美元/桶（+1.2%），纽约原糖活跃合约价格 16.53 美分/磅（-0.06%）。截至 6 月 10 日，基金多 单增加 632 手，基金空单增加 20718 手，净多单同比减少 20086 手至-38526 手，净多单大幅减少。 UNICA 数据显示，截至 6 月 1 日，25/26 榨季巴西中南部累计产糖 695 万吨，同比减少 92 万吨。 ISMA/NFCSF 数据显示，截至 5 月 15 日，24/25 榨季印度产糖 2574 万吨，同比减少 580 万吨。OCSB 数 据显示，截至 4 月 9 日，24/25 榨季泰国产糖 1005 万吨，同比增加 131 万吨。 国内市场方面，广西集团现货报价 6030 元/吨，环比上周下跌 30 元/吨；郑糖主力报 5720 元/吨， 环比 ...

Investment Overview - The company plans to invest RMB 30 million in establishing a wholly-owned subsidiary, Gansu Yasheng Ganyuan Agricultural Technology Co., Ltd. in Zhangye City, Gansu Province [1][2] - The investment is approved by the company's board of directors during the 8th meeting of the 10th board session held on June 20, 2025 [1] Business Scope of the New Subsidiary - The new subsidiary will engage in the production, sales, processing, transportation, storage, and other related services of agricultural products, as well as the initial processing of edible agricultural products [1][2] - It will also provide technical services, development, consulting, exchanges, transfers, and promotion related to agricultural technology [1] Strategic Impact - This investment aligns with the company's long-term development strategy and future business needs, contributing to the sustainable and stable growth of the sugar industry [2] - The investment is expected to have a positive impact on the company's future financial status and operational results [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract rebounded with a weekly increase of about 0.99%. Internationally, the monsoon season has improved the prospects of major sugar - producing countries in Asia, with expected restorative production increases, and the increased supply of Brazilian sugar has suppressed the raw sugar price. Domestically, in May 2025, China imported 350,000 tons of sugar, a significant increase compared to April and a surge of 1954.9% year - on - year. The opening of the import window has increased import pressure. Approaching the summer consumption peak season, the food and beverage industry has inventory needs, and seasonal consumption such as cold drinks may pick up, providing some support for prices and slowing down the decline. In the short term, it shows an adjustment trend, but the supply pressure remains, and the overall trend has not changed. It is recommended to treat the Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract with a bearish bias in a volatile market. Future factors to watch include consumption and exports of Brazilian and Indian sugar [7] Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Summary - Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract price rebounded with a weekly increase of about 0.99%. International factors include improved production prospects in Asian sugar - producing countries and increased Brazilian sugar supply suppressing prices. Domestic factors are a large increase in sugar imports in May 2025 and approaching summer consumption peak season. It is recommended to treat the contract with a bearish bias in a volatile market. Future factors to watch are consumption and Brazilian/Indian sugar exports [7] 2. Futures and Spot Market Futures Market - This week, the price of the US Sugar 7 - month contract fell with a weekly decline of about 1.15%. As of June 10, 2025, the non - commercial long positions of ICE No. 11 sugar increased by 1.46% month - on - month, non - commercial short positions increased by 8.62% month - on - month, and the non - commercial net position decreased by 407.67% month - on - month. The Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract price rebounded with a weekly increase of about 0.99%. The top 20 net positions in the sugar futures were - 58,428 lots, and the Zhengzhou Sugar warehouse receipts were 27,669. The 9 - 1 contract spread of Zhengzhou Sugar futures was + 147 yuan/ton, and the spot - Zhengzhou Sugar basis was 380 yuan/ton [10][14][22] Spot Market - As of June 19, the sugar price in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 6,100 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,855 yuan/ton. As of June 13, the estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) was 5,647 yuan/ton, a 0.69% month - on - month decrease; the in - quota price was 4,446 yuan/ton, a 0.67% month - on - month decrease. The estimated import processing price of Thai sugar (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) was 5,676 yuan/ton, a 0.68% month - on - month decrease; the in - quota price was 4,468 yuan/ton, a 0.67% month - on - month decrease. As of this week, the in - quota profit of imported Brazilian sugar was 1,452 yuan/ton, a 3.2% increase from last week; the out - of - quota profit was 251 yuan/ton, a 27.41% increase from last week. The in - quota profit of imported Thai sugar was 1,430 yuan/ton, a 3.25% increase from last week; the out - of - quota profit was 222 yuan/ton, a 32.14% increase from last week [28][31][37] 3. Industry Chain Situation Supply Side - As of the end of May 2025, the 2024/25 sugar - making season had ended, and the national sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1989 million tons or 12.03%. As of May 30, 2025, the industrial inventory was 3.0483 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 322,100 tons. In May 2025, China imported 350,000 tons of sugar, a significant increase compared to April and a 1954.9% year - on - year increase, but the cumulative import from January to May 2025 was only 630,000 tons, a 50.1% year - on - year decrease [41][45][49] Demand Side - The cumulative national sugar sales were 8.1138 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.521 million tons or 23.07%; the cumulative sugar sales rate was 72.69%, a 6.52 - percentage - point year - on - year increase. From January to April 2025, the cumulative output of refined sugar in China was 8.666 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.1%. The cumulative output of soft drinks from January to April was 59.59 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.9% [53][57] 4. Options and Stock - Futures Correlation Market - The report mentions the implied volatility of at - the - money options in the options market and the price - earnings ratio of Nanning Sugar Industry in the stock - futures correlation market, but no specific data analysis is provided [58][62]