2025 年 11 月 17 日 生猪：肥标价差走弱，降温涨价预期落空 | 周小球 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | | wuhao8@gtht.com | | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | | 生猪基本面数据 | | | | | | | 价 格 | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 同 比 | | | 河南现货 | 元/吨 | 11980 | | 50 | | | 四川现货 | 元/吨 | 11400 | | -50 | | | 广东现货 | 元/吨 | 12360 | | -200 | | | 四川现货 | 元/吨 | 11400 | | -50 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 广东现货 | 元/吨 | 12360 | | -200 | | | 期 货 | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 比 同 | | | | 生猪26 ...

Core Viewpoint - The news highlights the agricultural and ecological richness of the Qaidam Basin in Qinghai Province, emphasizing the development of various advantageous industries and the promotion of green organic agricultural products as a key strategy for economic growth and ecological sustainability [1][8]. Industry Overview - The Qaidam Basin is recognized as a significant agricultural area, with a focus on five major advantageous industries: Tibetan sheep, yaks, goji berries, barley, and forage, alongside emerging sectors like quinoa and facility-grown vegetables [4][5]. - The region is the largest goji berry cultivation area in China, producing nearly 100,000 tons of dried fruit annually, primarily exported to Europe, America, Southeast Asia, and Hong Kong [5]. Production and Capacity - The Tibetan sheep industry is supported by the establishment of standardized breeding bases, with a target of 1.8 million sheep to be slaughtered by 2025, achieving a slaughter rate of over 60% and a total meat production of approximately 30,000 tons [5]. - The forage industry has a natural grassland area of 180 million acres, with 110 million acres available for use, and the artificial forage planting area reaching 127,700 acres, yielding 105,000 tons with a value of 162.4 million yuan [5]. Quinoa and Other Emerging Industries - The quinoa industry has expanded to over 100,000 acres, with seven processing workshops capable of processing 30,000 tons annually, producing various quinoa products [6]. - The region is also developing a diverse range of new industries, including medicinal herbs and edible fungi, contributing to the "5+5+N" advantageous industry system [4][8]. Green Development Initiatives - The local government has implemented several policies to promote the development of green organic agricultural products, including plans for a comprehensive agricultural industry chain and financial support for quality improvement [10][12]. - Environmental sustainability efforts include the utilization of crop residues and livestock waste, achieving a straw utilization rate of 90.23% and a comprehensive utilization rate of livestock waste exceeding 84% [10][11]. Brand Development and Market Expansion - The region is actively building the "Magical Qaidam" public brand, with 94 enterprises and 395 products included in the quality product library, and has established flagship stores to enhance market presence [12]. - In 2024, the region aims to export 285,800 tons of various agricultural products, generating a revenue of 5.537 billion yuan [12].

其一，二次育肥补栏体量下降。其实有好多次猪价上涨出乎养殖户预期，多半是二育的"功劳"。眼下二育一方面是政策端的不支持，另一方面主 要还是猪价承压，二育补栏积极性不高，进而对猪价支撑力度下降，且前期二育猪源正择机出栏，也会限制后市猪价的反弹幅度。 其二，屠宰企业采购偏谨慎。国家级大数据中心监测显示，11月6-12日期间，全国屠宰企业开工均率为34.36%，环比下跌0.7%，较前一周下跌 0.24个百分点。这也说明屠企对高价猪源的接受度和采购意愿并不强。 来源：猪好多网 在当前猪市供需双增的情况下，市场供需博弈进一步加深，反映到猪价具体走势上，生猪行情持续的磨底震荡。值得关注的是，今日猪价止跌企 稳，东北、西北全域飘红，不过猪价上涨动力略显不足的迹象还是比较明显，单日反弹幅度大部分在0.10元/公斤以内。 | | | 猪好多数据 - 全国各省市生猪价格外三元报价表 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2025年11月16日 (単位: 元/公斤) | | | | 省市 | 2025/11/16 | 2025/10/16 | 较昨日涨跌 | 较上月涨跌 | | 辽宁 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Xinwufeng (600975), has announced an increase in its R&D expenses for the upcoming years, indicating a commitment to new research projects and associated costs [1] R&D Expenses Summary - For 2024, the company plans to allocate R&D expenses of 76.1646 million yuan [1] - In the first quarter of 2025, R&D expenses are projected to be 23.8232 million yuan [1] - The second quarter of 2025 will see R&D expenses of 51.5276 million yuan [1] - R&D expenses for the third quarter of 2025 are expected to reach 57.7165 million yuan [1] - Cumulatively, R&D expenses for the first three quarters of 2025 are estimated at 133.0673 million yuan [1] - The increase in R&D expenses is primarily due to investments in new research projects, as well as rising costs for testing, materials, and other related expenses [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Pigs**: In a phase of fluctuating downward movement, the price center is expected to decline in the later stage. The supply of pigs is increasing due to a persistently high inventory of breeding sows and improved production performance. The supply pressure in the second half of 2025 remains significant. Although the demand is expected to seasonally pick up, the boost may be limited due to the slow - down of economic development and changes in consumer preferences. The rebound space for hog prices in the second half of the year is limited, and the overall trend will be under pressure. Short - term hog prices may be weak, and the recommended operation is to short on rallies [3]. - **Eggs**: In a phase of fluctuating downward movement, the price center is expected to decline in the later stage. The inventory of laying hens is at a high level year - on - year, and the supply pressure continues to exert downward pressure. The demand has seasonal changes within the year, but is limited by the macro - economy and consumer preferences. The egg price is expected to remain at a low level considering cost and profit issues. The 01 contract is in the peak demand season, but the high supply is expected to lead to insufficient demand absorption, and the overall situation remains under pressure. It is recommended to short on rallies [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pig Section - **Supply Analysis** - **Over - capacity and High - level Supply**: The inventory of breeding sows has been stable at around 40.5 million since June 2024, higher than the official normal level of 30 million. The supply will remain high until the first half of 2026. The farming end's slaughter rhythm may affect the phased supply [10]. - **Weight Impact on Supply**: As the weather turns cold, the overall weight of pigs has increased, and the slaughter weight has continued to rise. With further cooling and a more obvious difference between fat and standard pig prices, the overall slaughter weight is expected to continue to rise [11]. - **Demand Analysis**: As the weather gets colder, the downstream demand enters the peak season, and the slaughter volume shows a slow - growth trend. In addition to actual demand, secondary fattening and frozen product storage form short - term apparent demand. Recently, secondary fattening has been cautious, and the willingness for concentrated slaughter is also low [23]. - **Cost and Profit Analysis** - **Farmers' Losses**: As of November 13, 2025, the breeding cost of large - scale farms in the self - breeding and self - raising model is 12.41 yuan/kg, and that in the model of purchasing piglets is 13.99 yuan/kg [36]. - **Slow Capacity Reduction**: Farmers are pessimistic about the future market. Sow replenishment is mainly for replacement, and the elimination of high - parity sows has increased [37]. - **Policy - Reserve Purchase and Sale**: The state reserve's purchase and sale of pork adjust market supply and demand and guide market sentiment to ensure the stable operation of the pig market. The National Development and Reform Commission will launch the third batch of central pork reserve purchases this year to promote a reasonable rebound in hog prices [44]. - **Spread and Basis Analysis**: Multiple spread and basis data such as the 01, 03, 05, 07, 09, 11 basis of pigs in Henan and the 5 - 9, 9 - 1, 1 - 3 spreads are provided, showing different price differences and trends over time [52][61][67]. 3.2 Egg Section - **Supply Analysis** - **Current Supply Situation**: Egg supply is determined by the inventory of laying hens and the egg - laying rate. Since 2025, the enthusiasm for replenishment has weakened. The decline in replenishment in the third quarter corresponds to a decrease in newly - opened layers in the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, the number of culled hens has increased due to low egg prices. The inventory of laying hens in the fourth quarter may decline but remain at a high level year - on - year, with sufficient egg supply [73]. - **Cost Situation**: Recently, the feed cost has rebounded slightly, and the overall breeding cost has not fluctuated much, currently around 3.2 - 3.3 yuan/jin [75]. - **Demand Analysis**: In the long - term, egg consumption is related to population, economic development, and consumer preferences, showing a steady growth trend. In the short - and medium - term, egg demand has obvious seasonality. Currently, the demand is in the off - season, and after the end of e - commerce promotions, the demand has not been significantly boosted, but high vegetable prices still provide some support [85]. - **Substitute Price and Spread Analysis** - **Substitute Price**: The prices of major meats and 28 key vegetables are provided, which may affect egg demand [100]. - **Spread and Basis**: Multiple spread and basis data such as the 1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1 spreads of eggs and the 01, 05, 09, 10, 11, 12 basis of eggs in Hebei are provided, showing different price differences and trends over time [100].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Both the hog and egg markets are in a downward - trending phase, and their price centers are expected to decline in the future [2][3]. - For hogs, due to high levels of breeding sows, increased production performance, and high supply pressure in the second half of 2025, along with limited demand boost from economic slowdown and changing consumer preferences, the rebound space for hog prices is limited. Policy disturbances, sufficient supply, and weak demand acceptance lead to weak market sentiment. Short - term hog prices may be weak, and the recommended strategy is to short on rallies [3]. - For eggs, with the inventory of laying hens at a high level year - on - year, continuous supply pressure, and limited demand fluctuations affected by the macro - economy and consumer preferences, the egg price is expected to remain low. The 01 contract is in the demand peak season, but high supply may lead to insufficient demand acceptance. The overall advice is to short on rallies [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Hog Section - **Supply**: - Pork supply depends on the number of hog slaughter and slaughter weight. Since the import accounts for less than 5%, domestic production is the main source. The number of hog slaughter is determined by production capacity, and weight shows seasonal changes within the year. The supply will remain high until the first half of 2026, and attention should be paid to the impact of the slaughter rhythm on short - term supply [9][10]. - The overall slaughter weight is rising as the weather gets colder, and the entry of second - fattening hogs decreases. It is expected to continue rising as the weather further cools and the price difference between fat and standard hogs becomes more obvious [11]. - **Demand**: - In the long - term, pork consumption is related to income, population, and consumption habits; in the medium - term, it has obvious seasonality; in the short - term, it changes with festivals and price fluctuations. Currently, as the weather gets colder, the downstream demand is in the peak season, and the slaughter volume is slowly increasing. Second - fattening and frozen - product storage form short - term demand, but recently, the second - fattening entry is cautious, and the willingness to slaughter en masse is low [23]. - **Cost and Profit**: - As of November 13, the self - breeding and self - raising model's cost is 12.41 yuan/kg, and the cost of purchasing piglets is 13.99 yuan/kg. The breeding industry is in a loss, and the production capacity reduction is slow. Breeders are pessimistic about the future, mainly replacing sows, and increasing the elimination of high - parity sows [36][37]. - **Policy**: - The state uses reserve purchases and sales to regulate market supply and demand and stabilize the hog market. Currently, the market is in the second - level early - warning range of excessive price decline, and the third batch of central pork reserve purchases will be launched [44]. - **Spreads and Basis**: - A series of data on hog spreads and basis are provided, including the basis of different contracts in Henan and various inter - contract spreads, with daily - updated data [52][61][67]. 3.2 Egg Section - **Supply**: - Egg supply is determined by the inventory of laying hens and the egg - laying rate. Since the beginning of 2025, the enthusiasm for replenishment has weakened, and the new production in the fourth quarter will decline. At the same time, the number of culled hens has increased due to low egg prices. Although the inventory of laying hens may decline in the fourth quarter, it will still be at a high level year - on - year, and the egg supply is sufficient. Attention should be paid to the culling situation [73]. - Recently, replenishment has been weak, the culling sentiment has declined, the inventory of laying hens remains high, and the egg supply is still abundant. The feed cost has rebounded slightly, and the overall breeding cost is around 3.2 - 3.3 yuan/jin [74][75]. - **Demand**: - In the long - term, egg consumption is related to population, economy, and consumer preferences, showing a steady growth trend. In the medium - and short - term, it has obvious seasonality, with peaks before traditional festivals. Currently, the demand is in the off - season, and after the end of e - commerce promotions, the demand boost is not obvious, but high vegetable prices still provide some support [85]. - **Spreads and Basis**: - Data on egg spreads and basis are provided, including inter - contract spreads and the basis of different contracts in Hebei, with daily - updated data [100].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The hog market is in a phase of oscillatory decline, and the price center is expected to decrease in the later stage. The supply of hogs is increasing due to a persistently high inventory of breeding sows and improved production performance. Although the demand is expected to seasonally pick up in the second half of 2025, the boost may be limited due to slow economic development and changing consumer preferences. Policy disturbances, sufficient supply, and insufficient demand may lead to weak short - term hog prices. It is recommended to short on rallies [3]. - The egg market is also in an oscillatory decline, and the price center is expected to remain low. The inventory of laying hens is at a high level year - on - year, and the supply pressure persists. The demand has seasonal changes, but is limited by the macro - economy and consumer preferences. The 01 contract is in the peak demand season, but the high supply is expected to outpace the demand, so the overall market is still under pressure. It is recommended to short on rallies [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Hog Section 3.1.1 Supply - **Capacity and long - term supply**: The inventory of breeding sows has been stable at around 40.5 million since June 2024, higher than the official normal level of 30 million. The supply will remain high until the first half of 2026, and attention should be paid to the impact of the farmers' slaughter rhythm on short - term supply [10]. - **Weight and short - term supply**: As the weather turns cold, the overall weight of hogs has increased, and the slaughter rhythm is normal. The overall slaughter weight is expected to continue to rise as the weather gets colder and the price difference between fat and standard hogs becomes more obvious [11]. 3.1.2 Demand - With the colder weather, the downstream demand has entered the peak season, and the slaughter volume is slowly increasing. In addition to actual demand, secondary fattening and frozen product storage form short - term apparent demand. Recently, the secondary fattening has been cautious, and the willingness to concentrate on slaughter is not high [23]. 3.1.3 Cost and Profit - As of November 13, 2025, the breeding cost of large - scale farms in the self - breeding and self - raising mode is 12.41 yuan/kg, and that in the mode of purchasing piglets is 13.99 yuan/kg. The breeding enterprises are in a loss state, and the capacity reduction is slow [36]. 3.1.4 Policy - The state will start the third batch of central pork reserve purchases to promote a reasonable rebound in hog prices. There have been multiple rounds of central reserve frozen pork rotation and purchase and storage transactions in the past [44][45]. 3.1.5 Spread and Basis - The report provides data on various hog spreads and bases, such as the 01, 03, 05, 07, 09, 11 contract bases in Henan, and the 1 - 3, 3 - 5, 5 - 7, 7 - 9, 9 - 11, 11 - 1, 1 - 5 spreads [52][67][69]. 3.2 Egg Section 3.2.1 Supply - The supply of eggs is determined by the inventory of laying hens and the laying rate. Since 2025, the enthusiasm for replenishment has weakened, and the number of newly - opened layers in the fourth quarter is expected to decrease. At the same time, the number of culled hens has increased due to low egg prices. The inventory of laying hens may decline in the fourth quarter but will still remain high year - on - year, resulting in sufficient egg supply [73]. 3.2.2 Demand - In the long - term, egg consumption is related to population, economic development, and consumer preferences, showing a steady growth trend. In the short - and medium - term, egg demand has obvious seasonality. Currently, it is the off - season, and although the demand has increased year - on - year, the seasonal demand change is still significant. The end of e - commerce promotions has failed to boost the demand significantly, but the high vegetable prices still provide some support [85]. 3.2.3 Cost - The recent feed cost has rebounded slightly, and the overall breeding cost has not fluctuated much, currently around 3.2 - 3.3 yuan/jin [75]. 3.2.4 Spread and Basis - The report provides data on various egg spreads and bases, such as the 1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1 spreads, and the 01, 05, 09, 10, 11, 12 contract bases in Hebei [100].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that New Wufeng (SH 600975) held its 20th meeting of the 6th Board of Directors on November 14, 2025, via communication, where it reviewed the proposal for the first extraordinary shareholders' meeting of 2025 [1] - For the year 2024, New Wufeng's revenue composition is as follows: livestock industry accounts for 76.4%, wholesale and retail accounts for 22.81%, feed processing accounts for 0.69%, and other businesses account for 0.1% [1] - As of the time of reporting, New Wufeng has a market capitalization of 8 billion yuan [1]

牧原股份11月14日大宗交易平台出现一笔成交，成交量71.00万股，成交金额3540.77万元，大宗交易成 交价为49.87元。该笔交易的买卖双方均为机构专用席位。 进一步统计，近3个月内该股累计发生5笔大宗交易，合计成交金额为1.93亿元。 证券时报·数据宝统计显示，牧原股份今日收盘价为49.87元，下跌1.38%，日换手率为0.65%，成交额为 12.48亿元，全天主力资金净流出1.04亿元，近5日该股累计上涨0.32%，近5日资金合计净流出2.11亿 元。 两融数据显示，该股最新融资余额为50.68亿元，近5日增加3064.77万元，增幅为0.61%。（数据宝） 11月14日牧原股份大宗交易一览 | 成交量（万 | 成交金额（万 | 成交价格 | 相对当日收盘折溢价 | 买方营业 | 卖方营业 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股） | 元） | （元） | （%） | 部 | 部 | | 71.00 | 3540.77 | 49.87 | 0.00 | 机构专用 | 机构专用 | （文章来源：证券时报网） ...

| 权益类证券大宗交易 (协议交易) | | | | | | | | 团 下载 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 成交价格 | 成交量 | 成交金额 | 买方营业部 | 卖方营业部 | | | | | | (元) | (万股/万份) | (万元) | | | | | 2025-11-14 | 002714 | 牧原股份 | 49.87 | 71.00 | 3,540.7 机构专用 | | 机构专用 | | 11月14日，牧原股份大宗交易成交71万股，成交额3540.77万元，占当日总成交额的2.76%，成交价 49.87元，较市场收盘价49.87元持平。 ...