Core Insights - The article discusses the significant rise in gold prices, which have increased by 60% and reached new highs over 50 times in 2025, prompting questions about whether to invest or remain cautious in 2026 [2][4]. Group 1: Factors Driving Gold Prices - The first driving force behind the gold price surge is the substantial purchasing by central banks, with countries like China and Poland increasing their gold reserves significantly. Poland alone bought 83 tons in the first ten months of the year, making it the largest gold buyer globally [5][7]. - The second factor is the shift in global investment funds seeking better returns due to lower interest rates from the Federal Reserve, which has led to a net inflow of over 700 tons into gold ETFs in recent months, particularly from North America [9]. - The third factor is the rising geopolitical risks, including ongoing conflicts and trade tensions, which have increased the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, contributing to a 12% increase in gold prices due to this heightened risk environment [11]. Group 2: Market Predictions and Cautions - Financial institutions are making bold predictions for gold prices in 2026, with Goldman Sachs targeting $4,900 per ounce, citing continued central bank purchases and potential further interest rate cuts [13][14]. - UBS has a more conservative target of $4,200, emphasizing the increasing allure of gold as a "risk-free asset" due to high U.S. debt levels, while the World Gold Council has refrained from providing specific price targets [14]. - Despite these optimistic forecasts, there are concerns about the sustainability of central bank purchases and the potential for a shift in U.S. monetary policy that could negatively impact gold prices [16][18]. Group 3: Investment Strategies for Individuals - For individuals considering gold jewelry, the article suggests that price fluctuations should not be a major concern, as jewelry is primarily for personal use rather than investment [20]. - However, for those looking to invest in gold, it is advised to avoid chasing high prices, as the market is expected to experience high volatility and potential corrections in 2026 [20][22]. - The article emphasizes treating gold as a form of insurance rather than a quick profit-making tool, recommending that investments in gold should not exceed 10% of total assets to maintain a balanced approach [22][24].

Core Viewpoint - Vitalik Buterin, co-founder of Ethereum, argues that prediction markets serve as a "rational tool" for addressing emotional issues, despite theoretical concerns about negative incentives [1] Group 1: Prediction Markets vs. Traditional Markets - Prediction markets, according to Buterin, are less likely to cause large-scale harm compared to traditional markets, which also carry similar risks [1] - Unlike social media, which can incite emotions and lacks accountability, prediction markets utilize real funds to constrain opinions, leading to a closer approximation of truth over time [1] Group 2: Market Characteristics - The fixed price range of 0-1 in prediction markets reduces the influence of "hot potato" dynamics and excessive speculation compared to traditional markets [1]