白糖：估值有安全边际 周小球 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 zhouxiaoqiu@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 白糖基本面数据 | | 价格 | 同比 | | 价差 | 同比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原糖价格（美分/磅） | 16.27 | 0.24 | 91 价差（元/吨） | 107 | 25 | | 主流现货价格（元/吨） | 5930 | -20 | 15 价差（元/吨） | 43 | 1 | | 期货主力价格（元/吨） | 5573 | -94 | 主流现货基差（元/吨） | 357 | 74 | 资料来源：同花顺，国泰君安期货研究 【宏观及行业新闻】 期 货 研 究 2025 年 08 月 11 日 【趋势强度】 白糖趋势强度：1 ■ 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表示 最看空，2 表示最看多。 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国 期货研究 高频信息：巴西中南部 7 月上半月压榨进度加快；印度季风降水高于 LPA；巴西 6 ...

巴西政府的农业预测机构Conab在 4 月份表示，2025-2026 年度的甘蔗产量可能总计为 6.634 亿吨，较上 年下降 2%。Covrig称，有人预测产量会低于 6 亿吨。 智通财经APP获悉，由于对全球最大产糖国巴西甘蔗产量下降的担忧，原糖期货在四天内首次上涨。截 至发稿，原糖价格上涨 1.2%，达到每磅 16.20 美分。伦敦市场上，白砂糖价格上涨 1.6%。 Covrig Analytics分析师Claudiu Covrig表示："尽管目前甘蔗压榨量已经相当巨大，因为我们正处于榨季 的高峰期，但持续报告的产量下降可能会导致巴西在第四季度的甘蔗收成突然枯竭。"他还表示，制糖 厂可能会比预期更早耗尽甘蔗供应。 今年总体来看，尽管巴西供应存在一些问题，但受全球供应过剩预期的影响，价格有所下降。不过，由 于巴西雷亚尔走强，这一下降幅度可能会受到限制，因为这提高了乙醇的最低价格门槛。而乙醇的最低 糖价则是指在该价格水平下，对于生产商而言生产乙醇才是具有经济可行性的价格。 糖厂根据乙醇折糖价(即乙醇生产成本折算为原糖价格)与原糖市场价的相对高低，自主调整制糖比。当 乙醇折糖价低于原糖价格时，糖厂倾向于增加原 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.08.08」 白糖市场周报 现货价格下跌，拖累白糖期价 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 目录 研究员：张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证Z0018457 取 更 多 资 讯 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权及股市关联市场 「 周度要点小结」 行情分析： 未来关注因素： 1、消费情况 2、巴西糖、印度糖出口 3 本周郑糖2601合约价格下跌，周度跌幅约0.84%。 国际方面，亚洲主要产糖国生产前景良好，以及巴西产量强劲迹象，全球供 应预期偏松，施压原糖价格。国内方面，配额外利润保持在相对高位，进口 压力释放。甜菜糖9月开榨，届时供应阶段性增加。需求端，夏季天气炎热， 食品饮料行业存有备货需求，冷饮等季节性消费回暖。库存方面，前期产销 进度良好，目前库存压力不大，但加工糖数量增加，导致去库存进程明显放 缓。新作方面，根据中国农业农村部发布食糖供需报告2025/26年度食糖产量 预计为1120万吨，同比微增4万吨，保持在近四年以来高位。总体来说，进口 预期增加，现货价格疲软，拖累白糖期价震荡偏弱运行，远月合约对应新榨 季供应。操作上建 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监会许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 月需重点关注巴西压榨进度、进口到港节奏及政策调控力度，中长期全球过剩基调下,糖价上行空间有限，建议以区间震 结 荡思路应对。 国内白糖工业库存 巴西糖配额外进口利润 --- 2019 -- 2020 ----- 2021 - 19/20 ------- 20/21 ------- 21/22 ------- 22/23 - 23/24 24/25 800 2400 -- 2022 2023 2024 1600 600 800 400 -800 200 -1600 -2400 0 12月 2月 11月 5月 10月 1月 3月 4月 6月 7月 8月 9月 郑糖9-1月差 柳州-09基差 - SR1909-SR2001 SR1809-SR1901 ---- SR2009-SR2101 -- SR1909 - SR1809 ==== SR2109 ------ SR2009 SR2109-SR2201 -- SR2209-SR2301 ---- SR2309-SR2401 600 1200 -- SR2309 SR2409 SR2509 SR2209 ...

期 货 研 究 2025 年 08 月 08 日 | | 价格 | 同比 | | 价差 | 同比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原糖价格（美分/磅） | 16.03 | -0.01 | 91 价差（元/吨） | 82 | 27 | | 主流现货价格（元/吨） | 5950 | -20 | 15 价差（元/吨） | 42 | -18 | | 期货主力价格（元/吨） | 5667 | -16 | 主流现货基差（元/吨） | 283 | -4 | 白糖：震荡期 周小球 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 zhouxiaoqiu@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 白糖基本面数据 资料来源：同花顺，国泰君安期货研究 【宏观及行业新闻】 高频信息：巴西中南部压榨进度加快；印度季风降水高于 LPA；巴西 6 月出口 336 万吨，同比增加 5%。 中国 6 月进口食糖 42 万吨。 国内市场：CAOC 预计 24/25 榨季国内食糖产量为 1116 万吨，消费量为 1580 万吨，进口量为 500 万吨； CAOC 预计 25/26 榨季国内食糖产量为 1120 万 ...

行业 白糖日报 日期 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635732 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：洪辰亮 2025 年 8 月 8 日 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 研究员：王海峰 021-60635728 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 请阅读正文后的声明 - 2 - 巴西 7 月出口糖 359.37 万吨，同比减少 4.6%。巴西 2025/26 榨季(4 月-次年 3 月)截至 7 月累计出口糖 1076 万吨，同比减少 7.64%。 花旗集团农产品大宗商品分 ...

白糖产业日报 2025-08-07 作上建议偏空交易为主。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货主力合约收盘价:白糖(日,元/吨) | 5667 | -16 主力合约持仓量:白糖(日,手) | 161306 | -11214 | | 期货市场 | 仓单数量:白糖(日,张) | 18615 | -187 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:白糖(日,手) | -18069 | -7033 | | | 有效仓单预报:白糖:小计(日,张) | 0 | 0 | | | | | 进口加 ...

行业 白糖日报 日期 2025 年 8 月 7 日 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635732 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：洪辰亮 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 研究员：王海峰 021-60635728 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：期货行情 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 收盘价（元/吨 美分/磅） | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 持仓量（ ...

Market Overview - As of August 5, the profit from producing white sugar in China using imported Brazilian raw sugar is approximately 1839 CNY/ton (within tariff quota, 15% tariff) or 642 CNY/ton (outside tariff quota, 50% tariff) [1] - The profit from producing white sugar in China using imported Thai raw sugar is about 1792 CNY/ton (within tariff quota, 15% tariff) or 582 CNY/ton (outside tariff quota, 50% tariff) [1] - Tereos, one of the world's largest sugar producers, reported a significant decline in quarterly profits due to low sugar prices impacting its core business and increased competition in its ethanol business due to a weaker dollar [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The sugar production in Brazil's central-southern region for the 25/26 season is expected to decrease year-on-year due to heavy rainfall in June, while sugar production in India and Thailand is projected to increase [2] - Domestic sugar sales data is strong, with sugar inventory in Guangxi estimated at around 800,000 tons [2] - There is uncertainty regarding future import levels, with expectations of 750,000 tons imported in July, followed by a gradual decrease in August, which may alleviate import pressure [2] Price Trends and Recommendations - Recent rapid adjustments in Zhengzhou sugar prices are primarily influenced by overall market corrections, but the current season is entering a consumption peak, suggesting strong cost support for domestic sugar prices [2] - The market is advised to consider buying on stabilization, with a reference support level for Zhengzhou sugar at 5500 CNY/ton [2] - International oil prices have declined, influenced by increased OPEC+ supply and concerns over weak global demand, which has led to a weak performance in Zhengzhou sugar futures [3] - The market lacks new fundamental themes, with attention on support around 5600 CNY/ton, and short-term trading is recommended [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The decline of Zhengzhou sugar may be nearing its end as the long - position funds are actively shifting to the 01 contract, causing the 9 - 1 spread to weaken. Currently, the basis is large, and there is certain support at the 5700 mark [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market Conditions**: SR509 closed at 5697 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan or 0.42%, with a position reduction of 20364 lots; SR601 closed at 5638 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan or 0.21%, with a position increase of 24152 lots; US Sugar 10 closed at 16.25 cents/pound, up 0.07 cents or 0.43%, with a position increase of 2539 lots; US Sugar 03 closed at 16.88 cents/pound, up 0.10 cents or 0.60%, with a position increase of 2476 lots [7]. - **Market Analysis**: New York raw sugar futures strengthened on Monday. The bearish production data of Brazil's central - southern region in the first half of July suppressed the raw sugar price, but concerns about the decline in Brazil's production still exist, and there is a high possibility of a reduction in beet sugar production in the EU. Zhengzhou sugar's decline was mainly due to the long - position funds' shift to the 01 contract [7][8]. 3.2 Industry News - **China - Guangxi**: In the 2024/25 sugar - crushing season, the cumulative cane crushing in Guangxi was 4859.54 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 258.47 million tons; the output of blended sugar was 646.50 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 28.36 million tons; the sugar - making rate was 13.30%, a year - on - year increase of 1.22 percentage points. As of the end of July, the cumulative sugar sales were 549.61 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 39.66 million tons; the sales - to - production ratio was 85.01%, a year - on - year increase of 2.51 percentage points. In July, the single - month sugar sales were 35.55 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.78 million tons; the industrial inventory was 96.89 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.3 million tons [9]. - **China - Yunnan**: The 2024/2025 sugar - crushing season in Yunnan ended 5 days earlier than last year. The total cane crushing was 1806.30 million tons (compared with 1544.94 million tons in the previous season), the sugar output was 241.88 million tons (compared with 203.20 million tons in the previous season), the sugar - making rate was 13.39% (compared with 13.15% in the previous season), and the alcohol output was 2.82 million tons (compared with 2.80 million tons in the previous season). As of July 31, 2025, the cumulative sugar sales were 195.14 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 32.62 million tons; the sales - to - production ratio was 80.68%, a year - on - year increase of 0.7%; the monthly sugar sales were 20.03 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.8 million tons; the industrial inventory was 46.73 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.06 million tons [9]. - **Brazil**: In the first half of July, the cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 4982.3 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 641.1 million tons or 14.77%; the ATR of cane was 133.66 kg/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 9.79 kg/ton; the sugar - making ratio was 53.68%, a year - on - year increase of 3.79%; the ethanol output was 2.194 billion liters, a year - on - year increase of 0.051 billion liters or 2.36%; the sugar output was 3.406 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.446 million tons or 15.07% [9]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including spot price trends, 2509 contract basis, SR9 - 1 spread, Brazilian raw sugar import profit, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts, Brazilian real exchange rate, and the trading and position data of the top 20 seats of the Zhengzhou sugar main contract [11][15][17].