作 者丨张赛男 编 辑丨巫燕玲 刘雪莹 ETF放量、富时中国A5 0指数期货直线拉升、创业板指反弹！ 农业股持续大涨，北大荒等1 0余股涨停。大消费股震荡反弹，零售方向领涨，永辉超市等多股涨停。中字头、基建股一度冲高，中国中车接 近涨停。 港股走强，恒生指数涨1 . 5 8%，恒生科技指数涨3 . 5 7%。金山云、越疆、茶百道涨超1 0%，小米集团涨超5%。 4 月 8 日 早 盘 ， 中 证 5 0 0ETF （ 5 1 0 5 0 0 ） 成 交 超 6 3 亿 ， 南 方 中 证 1 0 0 0ETF （ 5 1 2 1 0 0 ） 、 华 夏 中 证 1 0 0 0ETF （ 1 5 9 8 4 5 ） 、 广 发 中 证 1 0 0 0ETF （5 6 0 0 1 0）、富国中证1 0 0 0ETF（1 5 9 6 2 9）成交超1 0亿元，均超昨日全天成交额。 | 159575 | 宽 创业板200ETF银华 | 1.021 | 0.033 | 3.34% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 589630 | 宽 科创综指ETF国泰 | 0.841 | 0.0 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to companies such as Nvidia, AMD, Weir Shares, and Huahong Semiconductor, while SMIC and Zhaoshengwei are rated as "Neutral" [2][6]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the "reciprocal tariffs" have a profound impact on the technology industry, particularly affecting the supply chain and demand for end products in the U.S. market [4][5]. - It highlights that China is responsible for producing a significant portion of global technology products, including 81% of personal computers and 75% of smartphones, making it vulnerable to U.S. tariff policies [4]. - The report suggests that the demand for consumer electronics may weaken due to rising prices from tariffs, which could lead to increased inventory levels and reduced profitability for tech companies [4][5]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The technology industry is characterized by a clear global division of labor, with most consumer products manufactured in China and Asia, which are affected by U.S. tariff policies [4]. - The report anticipates that tariffs will lead to a decrease in demand for end products in the U.S., impacting the global technology supply chain [4]. Semiconductor Industry - The semiconductor supply chain is expected to experience a direct impact from reduced downstream demand, which may lead to a decline in chip demand [5]. - The report notes that while chip products currently enjoy tariff exemptions, there is a risk of future tariffs being imposed [5]. Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to be cautious in allocating technology stocks until there are clear signals regarding tariffs and trade policies [5]. - The report recommends focusing on technology companies with strong balance sheets and good bargaining power within the supply chain [5].

如果您希望可以时常见面，欢迎标星收藏哦~ 来源：内容来自半导体芯闻综合，谢谢。 Raspberry Pi 2024年税前利润下降超过50%，这家半导体设计公司兼低成本微型计算机制造商在 去年6月于伦敦证券交易所上市后，首次发布全年财报，显示其受库存问题影响严重。 公司表示，受疫情相关的库存问题影响，其税前利润下降57%，至1630万美元。但公司称这些问 题已"恢复正常"，并预计"全年需求将稳步增长，使我们在持续的宏观经济和地缘政治不确定性中 保持强劲的市场定位"。 总 部 位 于 剑 桥 的 Raspberry Pi 报 告 称 ， 截 至 去 年 12 月 底 ， 其 调 整 后 息 税 折 旧 及 摊 销 前 利 润 （EBITDA）为3720万美元，高于分析师预期的3660万美元，但较2023年下降15%。公司营收下 降2%，至2.595亿美元。 公司股价在周三开盘时上涨4%。投行Jefferies的分析师在当天上午将其股票评级从"持有"上调 至"买入"。 Raspberry Pi去年以5.42亿英镑的估值进行首次公开募股（IPO），被视为伦敦市场的一次难得胜 利。伦敦近年来在吸引上市公司方面面临困难， ...

交银国际研究 公司更新 | 科技 | 收盘价 | | 目标价 | | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 4 月 1 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 人民币 | | 80.15 | 人民币 | 86.00↓ | +7.3% | | | 卓胜微 (300782 CH) | | | | | | | 利润压力高于预期，下调至中性；期待 2H25 后利润回升 个股评级 中性↓ 1 年股价表现 资料来源 : FactSet 4/24 8/24 12/24 -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 300782 CH 深证成指 股份资料 | 52周高位 (人民币) | 117.29 | | --- | --- | | 52周低位 (人民币) | 59.10 | | 市值 (百万人民币) | 42,844.18 | | 日均成交量 (百万) | 5.13 | | 年初至今变化 (%) | (10.65) | | 200天平均价 (人民币) | 89.92 | | 资料来源 : FactSet | | 王大卫, PhD, CFA ...

Investment Rating - The report downgrades the investment rating of the company to "Neutral" from "Buy" due to higher-than-expected profit pressure and competitive challenges in the RF front-end market [7][12][13]. Core Views - The company is experiencing significant profit pressure, particularly from its new chip production line, which has led to a forecasted decline in net profit for 2024 and 2025. The management anticipates a recovery in profits in the second half of 2025 as production stabilizes [7][8]. - The report highlights opportunities in low-power short-range communication products driven by generative AI and the upcoming WiFi-7 standard, although competition remains a concern [7][8]. - Revenue and EPS forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised downwards, reflecting the increased cost pressures and competitive landscape [7][9]. Financial Overview - The company’s revenue for 2023 is projected at 4,378 million RMB, with a growth rate of 19.1%. However, growth is expected to slow significantly in 2024 to 2.5% [6][14]. - Net profit is expected to decline sharply to 402 million RMB in 2024, down from 1,122 million RMB in 2023, with further declines to 348 million RMB in 2025 [6][14]. - The report provides a detailed financial outlook, including projected revenues of 4,862 million RMB for 2025 and 6,019 million RMB for 2026, with corresponding EPS estimates of 0.65 RMB and 1.86 RMB [6][9][14]. Market Performance - The stock price closed at 80.15 RMB with a target price of 86.00 RMB, indicating a potential upside of 7.3% [1][12]. - The company has faced a significant drop in stock performance, with a year-to-date change of -10.65% [4][8]. Competitive Landscape - The management acknowledges challenges from both international and domestic competitors, particularly in the RF front-end market, which is impacting the company's market share and pricing power [7][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of product diversification and the potential for new product lines to maintain production capacity and competitiveness [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The rise of China's semiconductor industry is characterized by a transition from technology importation to independent innovation, with Weir Shares' development trajectory serving as a microcosm of this journey [1][2]. Group 1: Weir Shares' Development - Weir Shares was established in 2007 as a semiconductor distributor when China's semiconductor industry was still in a "follower" stage, with integrated circuit imports reaching $128.7 billion, accounting for about 50% of the global market [1]. - The company adopted a "distribution + design" dual-driven model, capturing market gaps by representing international products and building a distribution network covering 3C, industrial control, and automotive electronics [2]. - By 2010, Weir's distribution business accounted for approximately 70%, while its design business showed growth potential, laying the groundwork for future transformation [2]. Group 2: Industry Transformation - The introduction of the National Integrated Circuit Industry Development Promotion Outline in 2014 marked a shift from a "policy-driven" to a "capital-driven" era, facilitating technological breakthroughs and industry upgrades [2]. - Weir's acquisition of OmniVision in 2019 for 16 billion yuan represented a strategic move into the CMOS image sensor field, significantly enhancing its technological capabilities and market position [7]. - From 2017 to 2023, Weir's semiconductor design revenue surged from 1.93 billion yuan to 22.34 billion yuan, with its market share in image sensors rising from 3.8% to 17% [7]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Weir's OV50 series of image sensors has broken the dominance of Sony and Samsung, achieving industry-leading specifications and being adopted by major domestic smartphone manufacturers [8]. - The company has developed a vertical integration strategy that combines pixel technology, algorithms, and supply chains, enabling it to address challenges in automotive vision systems [9]. - Weir's HALE algorithm has set new benchmarks for reliability and safety in automotive imaging, directly challenging the market position of ON Semiconductor [10]. Group 4: Market Opportunities - The rapid growth of the automotive industry, particularly in the context of electric vehicles, has provided structural opportunities for Weir, with its automotive image sensor revenue increasing from 1.24 billion yuan to 4.5 billion yuan between 2020 and 2023 [12]. - Weir's proactive response to domestic automotive manufacturers' needs has positioned it as a core supplier for major global car companies, with a market share of 33% in the automotive image sensor market [12][13]. - The company's strategy emphasizes not just market share replacement but also redefining market standards through technological iteration, as evidenced by its upcoming 12-megapixel automotive sensor set to launch in 2025 [13][14].

Investment Rating - The report gives a positive outlook on the electronic industry, indicating a "Look Favorably" rating for 2025 [4][9]. Core Insights - The report highlights the benefits of domestic computing power and storage price increases, with significant advancements in AI model applications and cloud capital expenditures [5][6]. - The automotive sector is expected to see a commercial breakthrough in high-level autonomous driving, with a notable increase in penetration rates due to cost reductions [5]. - The storage sector is experiencing a supply contraction, with major manufacturers like Micron announcing price increases of over 10% for NAND flash memory [5]. - Semiconductor equipment and components are projected to see improved profitability, with revenue growth expected to exceed 40% in Q1 2025 [5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic semiconductor manufacturing capabilities amid U.S.-China trade tensions, particularly in advanced processes [5]. - The consumer electronics market is showing signs of recovery, with new product launches from major brands like Apple and Xiaomi [5]. Summary by Sections Computing Power and Storage - The report notes the rise of domestic computing power chains benefiting from new AI models and increased capital expenditures from cloud service providers [5]. - Major storage manufacturers are adjusting prices upwards due to supply constraints, with a reported 35% reduction in NAND production capacity [5]. Automotive Sector - The report anticipates a significant increase in the adoption of high-level autonomous driving features, with mainstream automakers competing to offer these technologies in more affordable models [5]. Semiconductor Equipment - Revenue growth for semiconductor equipment companies is expected to exceed 40% in Q1 2025, driven by increased orders from wafer fabs [5][6]. - The report predicts a gradual increase in domestic component manufacturing rates, enhancing revenue growth prospects [5]. Consumer Electronics - The report highlights the launch of new consumer electronics products, indicating a recovery in demand, although smartphone shipments saw a year-on-year decline of 17% in January 2025 [5][6]. Key Company Predictions - The report provides detailed revenue and profit forecasts for various companies in the electronic sector, indicating strong growth for firms like North Huachuang and Zhongwei [6][9].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for NVIDIA (NVDA US) with a target price of $168.00, indicating a potential upside of 45.5% from the current price of $115.43 [1][12]. Core Insights - The report highlights NVIDIA's transition towards generative AI, with CEO Jensen Huang predicting that capital expenditures in the cloud service provider (CSP) sector could exceed $300 billion by 2025 and reach $1 trillion by 2028 [2]. - NVIDIA is actively participating in AI transformations across vertical industries, including mobile communications and smart driving, with a vision of establishing "AI factories" for production planning and intelligent assistance [2]. - The company continues to release new products, with significant upgrades in data center offerings, emphasizing the importance of scale-up architecture over scale-out in server design [6]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for NVIDIA show substantial growth, with expected revenues of $60,922 million in 2024, increasing to $311,585 million by 2028, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.2% [5][14]. - Net profit is forecasted to rise from $32,312 million in 2024 to $180,404 million in 2028, with a notable increase in earnings per share (EPS) from $1.30 to $7.30 over the same period [5][14]. - The report indicates a significant improvement in profit margins, with gross margins expected to remain around 75% and net margins projected to increase to 57.9% by 2028 [16]. Product Development and Roadmap - NVIDIA's product roadmap includes the launch of the Blackwell Ultra chip in the second half of 2025, followed by the Rubin and Rubin Ultra chips in 2026 and 2027, respectively, showcasing substantial performance upgrades [6][7]. - The introduction of new switch products, Spectrum-X and Quantum-X, is planned for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with advancements in technology such as optical-electrical hybrid packaging [8]. Market Position and Valuation - NVIDIA's current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is noted at 24 times the FY26 earnings, which is considered attractive compared to its historical average of 38 times [6]. - The report emphasizes NVIDIA's strong product and technology advantages, particularly in the early stages of AI deployment both domestically and internationally [6].

交银国际研究 公司更新 | 年结1月31日 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收入 (百万美元) | 60,922 | 130,497 | 211,723 | 270,548 | 311,585 | | 同比增长 (%) | 125.9 | 114.2 | 62.2 | 27.8 | 15.2 | | 净利润 (百万美元) | 32,312 | 74,265 | 117,514 | 155,099 | 180,404 | | 每股盈利 (美元) | 1.30 | 2.99 | 4.74 | 6.28 | 7.30 | | 同比增长 (%) | 288.2 | 131.1 | 58.2 | 32.6 | 16.3 | | 前EPS预测值 (美元) | | | 4.32 | 5.19 | | | 调整幅度 (%) | | | 9.6 | 21.1 | | | 市盈率 (倍) | 97.7 | 42.3 | 26.7 | 20.2 | 17.3 | | 每股账面净值 (美元) | 1.72 ...