今日周日(1月4日)由于假期白银休市，国际白银周五收于72.62美元/盎司，上涨1.91%，最高触及74.54 美元/盎司，最低下探71.27美元/盎司。分析师认为在多种情景下，白银仍可能大幅上涨，而最关键地区 的供应紧张也可能在2026年引发价格冲击。 【最新国际白银行情解析】 保持在短期均线之上将使上行目标保持关注，并可能为接近80.00美元的上升通道上边界的阻力打开一 条路径。突破通道将帮助银价接近85.87美元的历史高点，该高点于12月29日创下。 在下行方面，银价可能测试9日EMA的即时支撑71.54美元，随后是70.00美元附近的上升通道下边界。 若日收盘跌破通道，将打开向50日EMA(59.32美元)的修正空间。 【要闻速递】 在周六(1月3日)凌晨，美国对委内瑞拉发起了一场大规模的惊喜军事行动，这次行动代号为"绝对决心 行动"，涉及空中打击多个北部城市和首都加拉加斯的目标，包括军事设施和防空系统。 美国总统唐纳德.特朗普在佛罗里达州棕榈滩马阿拉歌庄园举行的新闻发布会上宣布，这次行动成功俘 获了委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯.马杜罗及其妻子西莉亚.弗洛雷斯。这对夫妇随后被转移到美国军舰上，并 最终运抵纽约 ...

齐鲁晚报·齐鲁壹点 魏银科 2026年开年首个交易日（1月2日），贵金属市场波动剧烈，先是金银携手走高，现货铂金、钯金同步涨超2%，上演集体狂欢；此后现货黄金突然回落， 由涨转跌，现货白银也回落到74美元下方。与期货市场的震荡不同，金饰价格比较平稳，国内线下金店客流显著回暖，部分门店促销活动引发消费者扎 堆看金。 现货黄金高位巨震 2025年最后一个交易日（12月31日），贵金属全线回调。纽约期金跌超1%，纽约期银更是大跌8.91%，伦敦白银现货价格大跌6.08%，铂、钯均大跌。 进入2026年首个交易日（1月2日），盘初现货黄金跳空高开后持续走高，一度突破4400美元/盎司，日内涨幅达1.89%。 与此同时，现货白银涨幅一度扩大至4%，触及74.34美元/盎司。国信证券分析指出，国内白银库存处于历史低位，而中国作为制造大国，下游制品供给 占比显著，叠加12月交割月逼仓效应与财富效应吸引的资金涌入，共同推动价格暴涨。 值得关注的是，2026年1月1日起，依据商务部、海关总署公告，白银出口管制新政正式落地，需凭出口许可证办理通关手续，其在芯片、光伏等产业链 的战略价值进一步凸显。 不过，盘尾现货黄金回落至431 ...

2026年元旦，中国白银出口管制新政正式落地，将白银出口管理提升至稀土同等级别。这一看似针对单一商品的政策调整，绝非贸易层面的简单管控，而 是中国在全球战略资源博弈中主动求变的关键一步，背后承载着保障国家资源安全、推动产业升级、争夺国际话语权的多重深层考量。 这一政策的连锁反应，已在全球市场显现端倪。2025年11月中国白银出口量环比骤降85%，对欧美出口降幅均超39%，全球白银贸易链已开始出现重构迹 象。要知道，中国白银出口量占全球贸易量的23.4%，新政实施后预计每年将减少全球供应量4500吨以上，这直接倒逼美国、印度等国将白银列入战略储 备。特斯拉CEO马斯克的发声警告，更凸显了白银供应链变动对全球工业生产的深远影响。这场由中国政策调整引发的全球资源再配置，本质上是对长期 以来西方主导的资源定价体系的冲击，中国正通过掌控供应链关键环节，争夺白银国际定价权的话语权。 从产业发展视角看，出口管制更是推动国内产业升级的"催化剂"。政策通过限制初级白银出口，优先保障国内高端产业原料供应，倒逼企业向高附加值领 域转型。事实上，在政策引导下，国内企业已实现99.999%高纯银粉、低温烧结银膏等核心技术突破，光伏银浆 ...

数据来源：Wind，紫金天风期货研究所 2025 年，全球秩序重构加剧，叠加特朗普政府上任，从年初的关税战爆发、政府效率部（DOGE）的横空出世、大美丽法案落地、威 胁解雇美联储主席鲍威尔、美国政府长期停摆等一系列事件的发生无一不牵动着市场的节奏。至2025年收官，伦敦现货黄金涨势超 60%、现货白银涨超140%，创1980年以来最佳表现。 数据来源：Wind，紫金天风期货研究所 铜 （来源：紫金天风期货研究所） 来源：紫金天风期货研究所 【20251231】【专题】回望2025：有色/贵金属最值得关注的N个时刻 引言 铜市场回顾 2025 年是全球宏观格局博弈与产业生态重塑交织的关键一年：贸易保护主义升级引发全球贸易体系扰动，AI 产业投资浪潮席卷全球； 新兴市场与 "全球南方" 活力凸显，我国 "十四五" 规划完美收官，"十五五" 开局在即，政策协同发力下的稳增长主线清晰。 市场层面，2025 年有色金属板块呈现 "先抑后扬" 的极致演绎：4 月美国关税政策落地引发板块集体恐慌性下探，多数品种触及年内低 点；而在 "供给刚性约束" 与 "新旧动能转换" 双重核心逻辑驱动下，铜、铝等核心品种成为资金配置核心 ...

2026 年度投资策略会（资产配置专场）20251230 摘要 2025 年中国经济前三季度增长 5.2%，为全年 5%的目标奠定基础。预 计 2026 年财政政策前置，基建和制造业投资有望回稳，出口形势保持 乐观，服务业零售增速或达 6%。 预计 2026 年基建投资增速回升至 5%以上，制造业投资在技术和价格 因素推动下止跌回稳至 5%左右。房地产投资降幅预计收窄，但库存压 力仍存，去库存政策或加码。 2025 年出口强劲，预计 2026 年新兴市场工业化和贸易摩擦缓和将支 撑出口，增速约为 5%。工业增加值预计增长 5.5%，整体经济政策基调 积极，扩大内需。 预计 2026 年财政政策前置，新增专项债规模或增至 4.6 万亿元，广义 赤字率约为 9.5%。货币政策将保持流动性稳定，可能降准 50 个基点， 降息空间 10-20 个基点。 预计 2026 年 CPI 中枢水平在 0.5%以上，PPI 逐步回升至-0.5%左右。 综合来看，预计 2026 年通胀率将回到 0%左右，GDP 增速为 5%。 Q&A 2026 年中国宏观经济的政策基调和主要方向是什么？ 2026 年的政策基调将继续强调逆周期调 ...

Group 1: Market Dynamics - On December 29, 2025, the London silver spot price experienced extreme volatility, soaring over 6% to a historic high of $83.97 per ounce before plummeting to a low of $70.49, resulting in a daily fluctuation of 17% [1][3] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) raised margin requirements for silver futures on December 26, which contributed to the speculative frenzy and subsequent market correction [2][4] - Silver volatility exceeded 80%, indicating a significant increase in price risk, driven by the CME's decision to raise margin requirements [4] Group 2: Industry Impact - Companies in the silver supply chain, such as photovoltaic silver paste manufacturers, are facing challenges in managing production costs due to the unpredictable price fluctuations of silver [1][11] - Mining and refining companies, like Zijin Mining, are assessing how to leverage the current high market conditions while managing the risks associated with price volatility [8][9] - Midstream processing and trading firms, such as Hengbang Co., are concerned about the impact of price swings on their processing margins, prompting them to negotiate fixed-price contracts with suppliers and customers [9][10] Group 3: Investor Behavior - Investors have begun to exit the silver market, with significant net outflows from the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) during the week of the price drop, indicating a shift in sentiment [5] - The stock prices of companies in the silver sector, including mining and processing firms, have reacted negatively to the price volatility, reflecting investor concerns about profitability stability [5][6] Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the extreme volatility in the silver market may become a norm in the near future, with potential price corrections expected in the first half of 2026 [16][17] - Companies are advised to adopt more flexible supply chain management strategies to mitigate risks associated with price fluctuations, including diversifying technologies and securing long-term contracts [17]

最近黄金、白银这走势，给我整得心跳突突的！ 就说12月29日到30日这两天，行情跟坐过山车似的：现货黄金29日一天跌了超5%，失守4310美元/盎 司；白银更狠，29日内便跌超10%，直接跌破71美元。 有人一夜之间就浮亏了15万，这波震荡下来，不少人都慌了神：到底要不要卖？ 卖了怕踏空，毕竟今年涨得太猛；不卖又怕再跌，这种心脏骤停式的巨震实在扛不住。 有人一夜浮亏15万！黄金白银这波暴涨暴跌，现在到底是落袋为安，还是再赌一把？ 先回顾下今年的行情，你就知道大家为啥纠结了。现货黄金年初才2600多美元，最高冲破4500美元/盎 司，年内涨幅超70%；白银更夸张，最高飙到83美元/盎司，年内涨幅接近150%。 股票这边也不示弱，黄金股里的山东黄金、紫金矿业今年股价都涨了不少，紫金矿业的股价更是涨了 121%；白银股里的盛达资源今年的股价从11块涨到了30块，涨幅超155%，兴业银锡的股价今年涨幅更 是达到了230%。 要是年初拿1万块买了相关标的，现在已然翻倍，这收益谁看了不心动？可面对眼下这忽上忽下的行 情，大家的观点直接掰成了两半：有人说赶紧卖，落袋为安最实在；也有人坚信还能涨，毕竟业内人士 都预判，说明年 ...

Core Insights - Since late November, domestic silver prices have surged significantly, leading to a very tight supply in the Shui Bei market [1] - The increase in silver prices has resulted in a noticeable rise in sales, but there is a scarcity of silver raw materials, making it difficult to procure silver bars for production [1] - Industry insiders indicate that over 90% of the current silver market activity is driven by speculation, with prices nearly doubling within the month [1] Market Conditions - The Shui Bei market is experiencing a "one silver hard to find" situation, with some merchants needing to pay a premium to acquire silver bars for jewelry production [1] - Orders for silver materials are reportedly taking close to a week to fulfill due to heightened demand and supply constraints [1] Price Dynamics - The price of silver has seen a dramatic increase, with reports suggesting it has nearly doubled in the past month [1] - The current market dynamics are heavily influenced by speculative trading, which constitutes a significant portion of market activity [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the gold and silver markets showed significant upward trends. The outlook for the precious metals market in 2026 remains optimistic. The continued fiscal expansion of major countries, the expected further decline of the US dollar, and the existence of stagflation risks in the US may further support the investment demand for gold. The industrial and investment demand for silver may also remain strong [2]. Summary by Directory Part I: Review of Precious Metals Market Gold Market Review - **Historical Gold Market Review**: Gold has experienced three major bull markets in the past 60 years. From 1971 - 1980, the price rose from $35/ounce to $850/ounce, a nearly 24 - fold increase. From 1980 - 2000, it was a bear market. From 2001 - 2011, the price soared from $255/ounce to $1920/ounce, a 650% increase. From 2016 - 2025, it entered a new bull market [6]. - **2025 Gold Market Review**: Affected by factors such as the implementation of the US tariff policy, the Fed's interest - rate cuts, and geopolitical crises, the London spot gold price rose from $2610.85/ounce at the end of 2024 to over $4500/ounce at the end of 2025, a cumulative increase of over 70%. The SHFE gold futures also showed a similar trend [13]. Silver Market Review - **Historical Silver Market Review**: Over the past 60 years, international silver prices have fluctuated significantly. From 1971 - 1980, it soared from $1.5/ounce to $49.45/ounce. From 1980 - 2000, it plummeted. From 2001 - 2011, it rose from $4/ounce to $49/ounce. From 2021 - 2025, it was driven by multiple factors to break through $80/ounce [18]. - **2025 Silver Market Review**: The London spot silver price rose from $28.91/ounce at the end of 2024 to over $80/ounce at the end of 2025, with a maximum annual increase of over 170%. The SHFE silver also showed a similar upward trend [23]. Part II: Analysis of the Impact of Macroeconomic and Geopolitical Factors on Precious Metals Prices Impact of the US Economic Situation on Precious Metals Prices - **Impact of the US Interest - Rate Cut Cycle**: The expectation of the US interest - rate cut cycle is one of the underlying logics supporting the sharp rise in precious metals prices. In 2025, the Fed cut interest rates three times, weakening the yields of traditional assets and increasing the attractiveness of gold [31]. - **Impact of the US Economy**: In 2025, the US economy maintained a certain growth rate, but the "Big and Beautiful" tax and expenditure bill worsened the medium - and long - term fiscal prospects, consolidating the bullish trend of gold [33]. - **Impact of the US Dollar Index Trend**: The US dollar index has a negative correlation with precious metals prices. In 2025, the weakening dollar index supported precious metals prices, but in 2026, its support may weaken [49]. Impact of Central Bank Gold Purchases on Precious Metals Prices - In recent years, global central banks have continuously increased their gold reserves. In 2025, central banks' gold - buying pace accelerated in the third quarter. In 2026, the pace of central bank gold allocation may slow down [51]. Impact of Geopolitical Crises on Precious Metals Prices - Geopolitical conflicts such as the Middle East situation, the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and the Palestine - Israel conflict have increased market uncertainty, leading investors to turn to gold for risk - aversion. They also affect the supply and demand pattern of gold [56]. Part III: Analysis of Precious Metals Supply and Demand Gold Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply Analysis**: In the first three quarters of 2025, domestic raw material gold production was 271.782 tons, and imported raw material gold production was 121.149 tons. The global total gold supply in the first three quarters was 3717.4 tons [59]. - **Demand Analysis**: The global total gold demand in the first three quarters of 2025 was 3717.4 tons, showing a slight upward trend. China's gold consumption decreased by 7.95% year - on - year [63]. - **Inventory Analysis**: In 2025, SHFE gold inventory continued to rise, while COMEX gold inventory remained stable after an initial increase and then gradually declined slightly [65]. Silver Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply Analysis**: It is expected that the global silver supply in 2025 will increase by 2% year - on - year to 1030.6 million ounces, mainly due to a 2% increase in mined silver [69]. - **Demand Analysis**: It is expected that the global silver demand in 2025 will decrease by 1% year - on - year to 1148.3 million ounces. Industrial demand will decrease slightly, while investment demand will increase by 7% [75]. - **Inventory Analysis**: SHFE, COMEX, and Shanghai Gold Exchange silver inventories all showed significant fluctuations in 2025 [78]. Part IV: Arbitrage and Position Analysis of the Precious Metals Market Gold Market Arbitrage and Position Analysis - **Domestic Gold Spot - Futures Arbitrage Analysis**: In 2025, the basis of SHFE gold futures active contracts was mostly negative, with occasional positive values presenting arbitrage opportunities [88]. - **Gold Inter - Period Arbitrage Analysis**: The inter - period spread of SHFE gold futures active contracts and continuous contracts was mostly positive, with occasional large declines presenting arbitrage opportunities [91]. - **Gold - Silver Ratio Analysis**: In 2025, the gold - silver ratio fluctuated sharply, and its future direction is difficult to judge after breaking through the previous range [95]. - **Analysis of SHFE Gold Positions and Capital Inflows**: In 2025, domestic institutional net long positions in SHFE gold futures showed fluctuations, and the inflow of funds increased with the rise in gold prices [97]. Silver Market Arbitrage and Position Analysis - **Silver Basis Analysis**: In 2025, the basis of SHFE silver futures active contracts was mostly negative, with large positive spreads appearing at the end of the year [106]. - **Silver Inter - Period Spread Analysis**: The inter - period spread of SHFE silver futures active contracts and continuous contracts was mostly positive, with occasional large fluctuations [108]. - **Analysis of SHFE Silver Positions and Capital Inflows**: In 2025, domestic institutional net long positions in SHFE silver futures showed fluctuations, and the inflow of funds increased significantly with the rise in silver prices [111]. Part V: Analysis and Strategies of Precious Metals Options - The implied volatility of gold and silver options has increased in recent years. The put - call ratio of gold options indicates a bullish market, while that of silver options shows more fluctuations, especially increasing when the silver price rises sharply [121]. - Different options strategies can be considered according to different price and volatility expectations, such as buying at - the - money call options, selling out - of - the - money put options, selling strangles, and buying straddles [122]. Part VI: Seasonal Analysis of Precious Metals - Based on a five - year seasonal analysis, precious metals have a relatively high probability of rising in March, April, and October and a relatively high probability of falling in June [137]. Part VII: Outlook on Factors Affecting Precious Metals Prices in 2026 and Technical Analysis - **Prediction of the Fed's Interest - Rate Cut Rhythm in 2026 and Its Impact on Precious Metals Prices**: It is expected that the Fed will cut interest rates by 75 basis points in 2026, which is beneficial to precious metals prices [146]. - **Orientation of US Government Policies in 2026 and Their Impact on Precious Metals Prices**: The US economy is expected to grow, and the government will maintain a high fiscal deficit rate. The new Fed chairman may be more dovish, which is conducive to the rise of precious metals prices [150]. - **Impact of Gold Supply - Demand Balance on Gold Prices**: In 2025, gold investment demand increased significantly. In 2026, the gold market outlook remains optimistic, and the strategic value of allocating gold is still stable [151]. - **Technical Analysis of Precious Metals Price Trends**: Technically, COMEX gold has strong support at $3500/ounce and $4000/ounce, and COMEX silver may have strong support at $50/ounce and $35/ounce [155]. Part VIII: Outlook on Precious Metals Prices in 2026 and Strategy Recommendations - In 2026, the global macro - game pattern remains unchanged. The continuous expansion of fiscal deficits in major economies, the Fed's interest - rate cuts, and geopolitical uncertainties are expected to support precious metals prices. Buying on dips can be considered as a trading strategy [160].

白银为何如此疯狂？三大核心逻辑支撑其"不死神话" 1. 供需撕裂已达临界点 2025年岁末，白银市场掀起一场史无前例的金融风暴——12月29日，现货白银单日暴跌 8.73%，创四年最差表现，振幅超 15%，被称"白银星 期四"以来最惨烈崩盘；然而仅隔24小时，12月30日，银价竟暴力反弹 7.88%，纽约期银从70.46美元飙至76.02美元，现货突破 75美元关口， 日内涨幅一度冲破10%。这场"史诗级修复"，不仅让散户心惊肉跳，更暴露全球资本对白银这一" 穷人黄金"的极端押注与深度分歧。 白银已连续 五年结构性短缺，2025年缺口高达 9500万盎司（约2960吨）。伦敦可交割库存较2019年锐减 75%，而需求端却火力全开： 光伏产业吞噬全球55%白银用量，每GW装机需30吨； 新能源车单车用银量是燃油车的 7倍； AI服务器、5G基站等新质生产力持续抽紧库存。 当"纸白银"合约规模远超实物可交割量，逼空风险一触即发。 2. 暴跌即"黄金坑"，抄底资金蜂拥而入 29日暴跌后，深圳水贝市场 实物银条断货，全球白银ETF单日资金流入创年内新高。投资者视70美元为"铁底"，逢低买入策略主导市场情绪。 与此同时 ...