金银新高之路：本轮突破后的持续性展望 20250908 摘要 美联储降息预期及就业数据恶化推动贵金属上涨，但需关注数据平滑处 理对市场判断的影响。预计 2026 年重新编转后的数据将更清晰地揭示 就业问题，加大降息预期。 美元汇率因降息预期下跌，但欧洲市场疲软可能部分抵消影响，总体对 人民币有利。人民币兑美元汇率在 2025 年后半程仍存在利多因素，人 民币黄金相对弱势但仍有上涨空间。 短期内贵金属价格稳重，黄金尤为突出，衰退阶段或有回调但整体趋势 向上。黄金资金流健康，无快速回调风险，后市可看高。白银上涨突破 前期高点，但缺乏海外资金流入，主要受现货需求推动。 COMEX 黄金目标价位在 3,685 美元附近，伦敦金在 3,680 美元左右。 黄金上涨趋势健康，若不出现快速拉升，市场波动率将维持在合理范围 内。目前市场量能结构良好，有利于贵金属价格向上拓展。 世界黄金协会计划 2026 年发布链上黄金资产，以伦敦交易所库存为抵 押，降低交易成本，实现数字化黄金。此举将巩固伦敦现货交易所地位， 并可能影响美元信用及美债需求。 白银定价权受工业和金融属性交织影响，技术上看可能进入大三浪最后 一个子浪，有望达到 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views - The domestic bond market is expected to benefit from the relatively optimistic liquidity environment, and attention should be paid to the introduction of policies to promote service consumption [2]. - The RMB exchange rate is likely to oscillate between 7.10 - 7.16 this week, and its short - term strengthening depends on the continuous improvement of internal and external environments [3]. - The phased correction of stock indices may be over, and they are expected to return to a relatively strong trend [3]. - The Treasury bond market should be operated with a band - trading strategy [5]. - The shipping index is expected to continue to oscillate or oscillate with a downward bias, and short - term operations are recommended [8]. - Precious metals are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long term, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [11]. - Copper prices may rebound after finding support, with a weekly price range of 79,100 - 80,200 yuan per ton [13]. - Aluminum is expected to be oscillating with a strong bias, alumina should be on the sidelines, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be oscillating with a strong bias [15]. - Zinc should be on the sidelines for the time being [16]. - Nickel and stainless steel are expected to oscillate between 118,000 - 126,000 yuan and 12,500 - 13,100 yuan respectively [19]. - Tin prices are pushed up by tight supply [19]. - Lead is expected to oscillate [22]. - Steel products are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the demand in the peak season and macro - policies [23][24]. - Iron ore has more risks than opportunities, and it is recommended to take profits on long positions and build short positions on high prices [25]. - Coking coal and coke are expected to oscillate widely, and it is not recommended to short coking coal [27]. - It is recommended to lightly test long positions in ferrosilicon and ferromanganese, but there is a risk of a pull - back if there is no substantial progress in the "anti - involution" policy [28][29]. - Crude oil may enter a downward trend in the medium term, and attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate meeting and OPEC +'s production - resumption rhythm [32]. - LPG fluctuates with crude oil [33]. - PX - TA prices are expected to be weak in the short term, and it is recommended to expand the processing margin of PTA01 below 260 [34][35]. - MEG is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall, and it is recommended to buy on dips within the range [38]. - It is recommended to hold long positions in methanol [39]. - PP has cost support in the short term, and it is recommended to look for opportunities to go long on dips [40]. - PE is expected to oscillate, and it needs to wait for a clear signal of demand recovery [42]. - PVC is difficult to trade due to repeated speculations, and it is recommended to wait and see [44]. - Pure benzene is expected to oscillate weakly, and benzene styrene is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [45][46]. - Fuel oil is dragged down by crude oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil is recommended to wait for long - position opportunities [46][47]. - Asphalt is recommended to try long - position allocation after the short - term stabilization of crude oil [48]. - Urea is in a weak supply - demand pattern, and continuous attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 reverse spread opportunity [49][50]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: The domestic liquidity environment is expected to be relatively optimistic, which is beneficial to the bond market. Attention should be paid to policies to promote service consumption. Overseas, the long - term bond market has experienced a "Black September," and the focus is on the Fed's dot - plot [2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The RMB exchange rate is mainly affected by the US dollar index. It is expected to oscillate between 7.10 - 7.16 this week, and attention should be paid to Sino - US economic data [3]. - **Stock Indices**: The phased correction may be over, and stock indices are expected to return to a relatively strong trend due to the expected loosening of liquidity [3][4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: A band - trading strategy is recommended [5]. - **Shipping Index**: It is expected to continue to oscillate or oscillate with a downward bias, and short - term operations are recommended [8]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver**: Weak employment data boosts recession trading. Gold and silver are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long term, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [9][11]. - **Copper**: US non - farm data drags down copper prices, which may rebound after finding support, with a weekly price range of 79,100 - 80,200 yuan per ton [13]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to be oscillating with a strong bias, alumina should be on the sidelines, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be oscillating with a strong bias [14][15]. - **Zinc**: It should be on the sidelines for the time being due to non - farm data falling short of expectations [16]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: They are expected to oscillate between 118,000 - 126,000 yuan and 12,500 - 13,100 yuan respectively, and attention should be paid to macro - level disturbances [18][19]. - **Tin**: Tin prices are pushed up by tight supply, and a V - shaped rebound is expected [19]. - **Lead**: It is expected to oscillate, and strategies such as selling out - of - the - money call options can be considered [21][22]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The steel market is in a weak supply - demand pattern, and the short - term trend is expected to be oscillating weakly. Attention should be paid to the demand in the peak season and macro - policies [23][24]. - **Iron Ore**: It has more risks than opportunities, and it is recommended to take profits on long positions and build short positions on high prices [25]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: They are expected to oscillate widely, and it is not recommended to short coking coal [27]. - **Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese**: It is recommended to lightly test long positions, but there is a risk of a pull - back if there is no substantial progress in the "anti - involution" policy [28][29]. Energy & Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: It may enter a downward trend in the medium term, and attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate meeting and OPEC +'s production - resumption rhythm [32]. - **LPG**: It fluctuates with crude oil [33]. - **PX - TA**: Prices are expected to be weak in the short term, and it is recommended to expand the processing margin of PTA01 below 260 [34][35]. - **MEG**: It is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall, and it is recommended to buy on dips within the range [38]. - **Methanol**: It is recommended to hold long positions [39]. - **PP**: It has cost support in the short term, and it is recommended to look for opportunities to go long on dips [40]. - **PE**: It is expected to oscillate, and it needs to wait for a clear signal of demand recovery [42]. - **PVC**: It is difficult to trade due to repeated speculations, and it is recommended to wait and see [44]. - **Pure Benzene & Benzene Styrene**: Pure benzene is expected to oscillate weakly, and benzene styrene is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [45][46]. - **Fuel Oil**: It is dragged down by crude oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil is recommended to wait for long - position opportunities [46][47]. - **Asphalt**: It is recommended to try long - position allocation after the short - term stabilization of crude oil [48]. - **Urea**: It is in a weak supply - demand pattern, and continuous attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 reverse spread opportunity [49][50].

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights a decline in gold prices, with the December 2025 gold futures dropping by $17.3 to $3602.4 per ounce, reflecting a decrease of 0.48% [1] - Following a record high in gold prices, a typical profit-taking activity led to a slight retreat in gold and silver prices on the 4th [1] - The ADP report indicated that U.S. private sector employment increased by only 54,000 in August, about half of the previous month's increase and significantly below market expectations [1] Group 2 - Market analysts predict that the upcoming August employment report will continue to show weak job growth in the U.S., potentially solidifying expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [1] - The expectation of a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy by the Federal Reserve has reignited interest in gold, with prices soaring approximately $200 per ounce over the past six trading days [1] - Technical analysis suggests that gold prices still possess strong overall technical advantages, with the next bullish target being a breakout above the $3700 resistance level, while major support is seen around $3500 [1] Group 3 - The December silver futures price fell by 49.5 cents, closing at $41.315 per ounce, marking a decline of 1.18% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company has adjusted the maximum repurchase price of its shares from RMB 5 per share to RMB 7 per share to facilitate the smooth implementation of its share repurchase plan [1][2][3] Summary of Share Repurchase Plan - The company approved a share repurchase plan on June 23, 2025, with a total fund allocation of no less than RMB 60 million and no more than RMB 105.3 million, with an initial maximum repurchase price set at RMB 5 per share [1][2] - The repurchase period is set for a maximum of 12 months from the date of board approval [1] Implementation Status - As of the announcement date, the company has repurchased a total of 10 million shares, accounting for 0.35% of the total share capital, with a total transaction amount of RMB 47.202 million [2] Adjustment of Repurchase Price - The adjustment of the repurchase price was made due to the company's stock price consistently exceeding the original upper limit, ensuring the successful execution of the repurchase plan [2][3] - The new maximum repurchase price is set at RMB 7 per share, while the previous limit was RMB 5 per share [2][3] Impact of Price Adjustment - The adjustment is based on the company's recent stock performance and does not adversely affect its debt repayment ability or ongoing operations [3] - The company maintains that the adjustment will not harm the interests of the company or its shareholders [3][4] Decision-Making Process - The adjustment was approved by the sixth board of directors and the tenth supervisory board meeting, with independent directors expressing support for the decision [3][4] - The adjustment does not require further approval from the shareholders' meeting as it falls within the authority granted to the board [3] Compliance and Legality - The adjustment complies with relevant regulations and internal governance documents, ensuring that the decision-making process was legal and valid [4]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs predicts that if the credibility of the Federal Reserve is damaged, gold prices could approach $5,000 per ounce, with a baseline forecast of $4,000 by mid-2026 [1] - Morgan Stanley expects gold prices to reach $3,675 per ounce by the end of the year, driven by anticipated Fed rate cuts [1] - Citigroup forecasts silver prices to rise to $43 per ounce in the next few months due to tightening supply and growing investment demand [2] Group 2 - HSBC raised its S&P 500 index target for the end of the year to 6,500 points, citing strong corporate earnings and expectations of Fed rate cuts [2] - Goldman Sachs anticipates Brent crude oil prices to fall to just above $50 per barrel next year due to a global oil surplus [3] - Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce indicates a bullish outlook for the USD/JPY currency pair, suggesting potential upward movement towards the 150 level [3] Group 3 - Citic Securities predicts that gold prices could exceed $3,730 per ounce by the end of the year, influenced by various economic factors [8] - Citic Securities also notes that the liquidity gap in September may narrow compared to August, indicating a stable monetary policy environment [8] - Citic Securities suggests that the 30-year mortgage rates in the U.S. have room to decline, but the extent may be limited [9]

Group 1 - Spot gold prices reached a record high, surpassing $3500, driven by strong expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September [1][2] - Following a peak of $3578, gold prices have retraced to above $3530 due to reduced safe-haven demand as global bond markets stabilize and stock markets remain steady [1][2] - Silver prices have also surged, breaking the $40.00 mark and reaching $41.46, the highest level since September 2011 [1][2] Group 2 - The U.S. labor market slowdown, indicated by JOLTS job openings dropping to 7.18 million, supports the case for a Federal Reserve rate cut [2] - Market expectations suggest at least two 25 basis point rate cuts by the end of the year, limiting the dollar's rebound potential and supporting non-yielding assets like gold [2] - Technical analysis indicates that gold has critical support around the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at approximately $3500, with potential downside to $3440 if this level is breached [3]

她认为，即使在黄金目前的价位，投资者也不会因"恐高"而退缩，而当投资者开始逢高买入时，就会出 现向上的抛物线走势。 分析师们普遍认为，黄金自上周起的强势行情与美联储的货币政策转变有关。Schneider进一步解释称， 鲍威尔向市场表明，他并不太担心通胀率回落至2%，他现在更关注经济放缓和劳动力市场。 过去几个月，黄金价格一直在3200美元/盎司至3400美元/盎司之间盘整，导致很多投资者对该市场感到 沮丧。但最近，金价突破上档阻力，屡创新高。 分析师指出，黄金盘整阶段的持续时间越长，突破的势头就越强劲，而现在就是有效突破的时机。 MarketGauge首席策略师Michele Schneider上周就预测黄金即将突破3500美元，并指出目标价在3800美 元至4000美元是合理的，然后市场会出现一些获利回吐。 而这一变化意味着美联储不再关注通胀，反而加剧了人们对美元购买力的担忧。她指出，全球投资者和 主权国家似乎正在对美元失去信心，转而青睐黄金，这将重塑其作为世界货币的地位。 一边倒的行情 周三，黄金继续强势上涨，刷新历史新高至3616美元，目前纽约金现货价格在3606美元左右。这一波行 情除了美联储的降息概 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices is driven by expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and increased market risk aversion, with both London spot gold and New York futures reaching historical highs [2][3]. Group 1: Gold Market Performance - As of September 3, London spot gold surpassed $3540, peaking at $3546.9, while New York futures exceeded $3600, reaching $3616.9, marking a year-to-date increase of 37% [3]. - The Shanghai gold futures contract rose by 1.2% to ¥813.74 per gram, with a peak of ¥816.78, while the Shanghai spot gold price increased by 1.1% to ¥810.80 per gram [3]. - Gold ETFs have shown strong performance, with 14 gold ETFs rising over 29% year-to-date, and six gold stock ETFs increasing over 60%, led by the Yongying CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry ETF at 67.17% [3]. Group 2: Silver Market Performance - Silver prices also maintained an upward trend, with New York silver futures reaching $41.99 and London spot silver hitting $40.9, both the highest levels since 2012 [4]. - The Shanghai silver futures contract reached ¥9864 per kilogram, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 31% [4]. Group 3: Federal Reserve's Impact - Analysts from Morgan Stanley predict a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with expectations of another cut by year-end, historically leading to significant increases in gold and silver prices [5]. - The market anticipates a nearly 90% probability of a rate cut in September, with potential for two cuts within the year [5]. Group 4: Global Economic Factors - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve, particularly following President Trump's actions, have heightened market anxiety, contributing to the rise in gold prices as a safe-haven asset [6]. - Emerging market countries are diversifying their foreign exchange reserves by increasing gold holdings, with global gold demand projected to rise by 3% year-on-year to 1249 tons by Q2 2025 [7]. Group 5: Future Price Projections - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data release on September 5 is expected to significantly influence gold prices, with predictions of a slowdown in the labor market [8]. - Analysts suggest that if historical trends repeat, gold prices could rise to approximately $3700 per ounce during the initial months of a rate cut cycle, with a long-term outlook suggesting potential for prices to exceed $5000 [9].

Market Overview - On September 3, precious metals sector experienced a significant surge, with silver and Western Gold achieving three consecutive gains, and Eurasia Group hitting the daily limit, followed by increases in Zhaojin Gold and Shandong Gold [1] Key Events - On September 3, spot gold reached a historical high of $3546.96 per ounce, while spot silver surpassed $40 per ounce for the first time since 2011 [3] - Morgan Stanley set a target price of $3800 per ounce for gold in Q4 2025 [4] - Domestic gold jewelry prices saw substantial increases on September 2, with Chow Sang Sang at 1041 CNY per gram (up 16 CNY), Lao Miao Gold at 1034 CNY (up 11 CNY), and Chow Tai Fook at 1037 CNY (up 10 CNY) [4] - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, indicated that the wealth gap is leading to more extreme U.S. policies, prompting international investors to shift from U.S. Treasury bonds to gold [4] Institutional Insights - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hinted at a potential rate cut in September due to weakening employment supply and demand, alongside ongoing pressure from Trump to replace Fed officials, which may lead to sustained increases in precious metal prices as global central banks continue to buy gold [5] - From now until the end of the year, potential Fed rate cuts, the suppressive effects of tariffs on the economy, and inflationary pressures will manifest in data, increasing the risk of overseas stagflation and driving gold prices higher. The accelerated expansion of U.S. debt may also exacerbate credit cracks in U.S. Treasuries, serving as a catalyst for gold price increases [5] - For silver, the current COMEX and SHFE gold-silver ratios are above historical averages. If rate cuts materialize and the gold-silver ratio continues to adjust, silver prices may have further upward momentum. Additionally, increased industrial demand, particularly in photovoltaic cells, is a key driver for silver price growth due to the rapid development of the solar industry [5]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The bullish trend for gold remains unchanged, with a focus on waiting for pullbacks to enter long positions, particularly at support levels of 3525 and 3500 [4][5] - Recent price movements show a significant increase from 3410 to 3550, indicating strong market momentum that is difficult to analyze through technical means [5] - The domestic gold market has mirrored international trends, with significant price increases observed, and the recommendation is to maintain a bullish stance without shorting [5][6] Group 2: Silver Market Insights - International silver experienced a predicted pullback, with key support at 40; a break below this level could signal a shift in market strength [6] - The upper resistance levels for silver are noted at 41 and 41.5, with expectations of another upward movement before potentially reaching a peak [6] - Domestic silver also showed a pullback, with a focus on resistance at 9950 and support at 9700, indicating a cautious approach to trading [6] Group 3: Oil Market Overview - The oil market is currently observing upward momentum, with support at 62.5 and potential for further increases if the price breaks above 65 [6] - Recent trading has seen oil prices close at around 66, suggesting a stronger performance compared to gold [6] - The recommendation is to continue a bullish outlook on oil, with a target of reaching 68 to 70 [6] Group 4: Fuel Oil Market Commentary - Domestic fuel oil has shown a successful rise, with current prices around 2840; however, it is advised to take profits and remain cautious [7] - The market is expected to oscillate between 2700 and 3000, indicating a non-trending environment where traders should wait for pullbacks to enter long positions [7]