格隆汇8月5日丨驰宏锌锗(600497.SH)在互动平台表示，公司主营业务为铅锌锗相关业务，目前未涉及 锶矿及锶盐领域的投资，且暂无相关计划。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The global lead market shows a large visible inventory pressure, and the expected increase in supply from new capacity will suppress lead prices. However, the cost support is relatively stable, and the potential production cut expectation caused by refinery losses also provides a bottom - support for lead prices. It is expected that the lead price will fluctuate widely in August, and its upside space depends on the actual improvement in the consumption end [2][72][73]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Lead Market Review - In July, the main contract price of Shanghai lead showed a volatile decline. Affected by factors such as the passing of the US bill, good domestic PMI data, and the approaching consumption peak season at the beginning of the month, the lead price was firm. In the middle of the month, due to factors like inventory increase and less - than - expected downstream consumption improvement, the lead price adjusted. After the news of some Middle - Eastern countries imposing additional tariffs on lead - battery exports, the lead price decline was magnified. Finally, it closed at 16,735 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 2.7%. The London lead price first declined and then rose, closing at 1,969.5 US dollars/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly decline of 3.93% [7]. 2. Lead Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Lead Ore Supply Situation - **Global lead concentrate supply is slowly recovering**: From January to May 2025, the global cumulative lead concentrate production was 1.8111 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.5%. Overseas mine production showed different year - on - year changes, indicating a slow recovery rhythm. In China, from January to June, the cumulative lead concentrate production was 787,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 13%. It is expected that the global lead concentrate supply will continue to recover in the second half of the year, with an expected overseas increase of 100,000 tons and a domestic increase of about 70,000 tons, and the global lead mine production growth rate will be 2.3% to 4620,000 tons [10][11]. - **Lead concentrate processing fees remain low, and the demand for silver concentrate imports is increasing**: In August, the average domestic lead concentrate processing fee was 500 yuan/metal ton, a month - on - month decrease of 100 yuan/metal ton; the import processing fee was - 60 US dollars/dry ton, a month - on - month decrease of 15 US dollars/dry ton. The import of lead concentrate maintained a loss, but the monthly import volume remained at a relatively high level. In June, the silver concentrate import volume was 126,000 tons, and the cumulative import volume from January to June was 847,000 tons. With the continuous high price of by - product silver, the import demand remained high [18][20]. 2.2 Refined Lead Supply Situation - **Global refined lead supply growth is slow**: From January to May 2025, the global cumulative refined lead production was 5.5066 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 1.8%. It is predicted that the global refined lead production in 2025 will be 13.272 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 0.6% [22]. - **Refineries are resuming production, and the electrolytic lead production in August is expected to increase month - on - month**: In July, the electrolytic lead production was 321,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.1%. It is expected that the production in August will be 338,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.13% [26]. - **The price of waste batteries remains high, and new projects contribute to the increase in production**: In July, the price of waste batteries fluctuated slightly. It is expected that the price will remain firm in August. In July, the production of recycled refined lead was 258,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.96%. It is expected that the production in August will be 273,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.16% [32][33]. 2.3 Refined Lead Demand Situation - **Global refined lead demand situation**: From January to May 2025, the global cumulative refined lead consumption was 5.4887 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.69%. It is expected that the global refined lead demand in 2025 will increase by 1.5% to 13.19 million tons, and the global refined lead supply will exceed demand by 82,000 tons [44]. - **Lead - battery enters the traditional consumption peak season, and the sector shows differentiation**: In July, the consumption of electric bicycle batteries was good, while the consumption of automobile starting batteries was mixed. In August, it is expected that the battery consumption will continue to be differentiated [48]. - **The Shanghai - London ratio is not conducive to lead ingot and battery exports, and imports supplement raw material ratios**: In June, the refined lead export volume decreased month - on - month, and the import volume increased year - on - year. The high Shanghai - London ratio is not conducive to lead ingot exports, and the battery export is also affected by factors such as tariff increases [49][50]. - **Policy guidance improves the marginal consumption prospects of lead - batteries**: In the automobile sector, the battery replacement demand is stable, and the new - car demand is expected to continue to be good. In the electric bicycle sector, the replacement demand is large, and policies such as trade - in and new national standards will stimulate consumption. In the energy - storage sector, the demand for lead - batteries is expected to grow [58][60][62]. 2.4 Global Visible Inventory is Rising - In July, the global visible lead inventory was under pressure. The LME inventory remained high, and the domestic lead ingot inventory increased. If the consumption in August does not improve significantly, the inventory may continue to rise [67]. 3. Summary and Future Outlook - The supply of primary lead is expected to increase in August, but the refinery profit is compressed. The supply of recycled lead is expected to be stable with a slight increase, but there is a possibility of unexpected production cuts. The demand is differentiated, and the traditional consumption peak season is slightly lower than expected. The lead price is expected to fluctuate widely in August, and its upside depends on the consumption improvement [72][73].

Group 1 - The metal lead concept declined by 1.70% as of the close on July 28, ranking among the top declines in the concept sector, with companies like Zhejiang Fu Holdings, Huaxi Nonferrous, and Hunan Gold experiencing significant drops [1] - The metal lead concept saw a net outflow of 1.204 billion yuan from main funds today, with 26 stocks experiencing net outflows, and 8 stocks seeing outflows exceeding 50 million yuan. The largest net outflow was from Chifeng Gold, which had a net outflow of 233 million yuan [2] - The stocks with the largest net outflows in the metal lead concept included Chifeng Gold, Xingye Silver Tin, and Zhejiang Fu Holdings, with net outflows of 233 million yuan, 131 million yuan, and 123 million yuan respectively [2][3] Group 2 - The top gainers in the concept sectors today included PCB concept with a gain of 4.33%, while the metal lead concept was among the top decliners with a drop of 1.70% [2] - The main funds saw net inflows in stocks such as Zijin Mining, Western Mining, and Tibet Summit, with net inflows of 47.6 million yuan, 17.7 million yuan, and 7.3 million yuan respectively [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For lead, raw material tightness and peak - season expectations support the lead price, with short - term prices expected to be range - bound and firm. However, high lead prices may limit downstream purchasing, capping the upside potential [1]. - For zinc, recent macro - positive sentiment and supply - side disruptions have led to a rebound in zinc prices. But the rebound suppresses downstream purchasing, causing inventory accumulation and limited upside. Opportunities to short may emerge after positive factors fade [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Lead - **Prices and Trading Data**: SMM1 lead ingot average price rose 0.59% to 17,000 yuan/ton, and the futures main - contract closing price rose 0.09% to 17,175 yuan/ton. The trading volume of the active futures contract decreased 7.42% to 33,005 lots, while the open interest increased 1.25% to 52,261 lots. The LME 3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic) rose 0.71% to 2,058.5 dollars/ton, and the Shanghai - London lead price ratio decreased 0.62% to 8.34 [1]. - **Fundamentals**: There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise. Primary lead production is stable with a slight increase. For secondary lead, rising scrap lead - acid battery prices, limited supplies, and hoarding by recyclers have led to some refineries reducing or halting production due to raw material shortages or cost - price inversions. Demand is shifting from the off - season to the peak season, which may reduce the drag on lead prices [1]. - **Industry News**: In June, the silver by - product output of primary lead smelters increased 1.3% month - on - month. In July, it may decline slightly due to regular maintenance. The additional tariff negotiation for the US REDDOG lead ore may end with both parties sharing the cost, and the ore will enter the domestic market by the end of the third quarter. Zhongse Co., Ltd.'s subsidiary plans to expand the production scale of the Baiyinnuoer lead - zinc mine from 990,000 tons/year to 1.65 million tons/year [1]. Zinc - **Prices and Trading Data**: SMM1 zinc ingot average price rose 0.55% to 22,090 yuan/ton, and the futures main - contract closing price rose 0.32% to 22,120 yuan/ton. The trading volume of the active futures contract decreased 2.53% to 154,513 lots, and the open interest decreased 3.46% to 114,762 lots. The LME 3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic) rose 0.86% to 2,742.5 dollars/ton, and the Shanghai - London zinc price ratio decreased 0.54% to 8.07 [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Zinc smelters have sufficient raw material stocks, and zinc concentrate processing fees are rising. The tight supply of zinc concentrate has improved, reducing production constraints and cost support. Refinery profits and production enthusiasm have increased, with an obvious upward trend in output. Demand is weak, and downstream buyers mainly make purchases based on rigid needs [1]. - **Industry News**: In the second quarter of 2025, the Kipushi zinc mine in Congo (Kinshasa) produced 41,800 metal tons of zinc concentrate. In June, production was affected by capacity - bottleneck upgrades and low - grade ore processing. After the first - stage upgrade, the daily available time of the DMS system increased from 6 to 16 hours. The second - stage upgrade in August is expected to increase the annual processing capacity from 800,000 to 960,000 tons, and the DMS available time to 22 hours/day. The annual zinc production guidance remains at 180,000 - 240,000 tons [1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights that Chihong Zn & Ge Co., Ltd. is expected to benefit from a relaxed supply of zinc concentrate in the first half of 2025, leading to increased processing fees and reduced production costs in the smelting segment, thereby enhancing profit margins [1] - The company is committed to maintaining industry-leading costs for lead, zinc concentrates, and smelting products through management optimization and technological advancements [1] - Chihong Zn & Ge plans to deepen its focus on lead, zinc, and germanium core businesses, strategically plan capacity layout, and continuously expand resource reserves through internal resource accumulation and external acquisitions to enhance sustainable development capabilities [1] Group 2 - The company has committed to an annual cash dividend of no less than 30% of the distributable profit, with a cumulative minimum of 40% over three years [1] - The production recovery timeline for Weize Mining and Rongda Mining remains uncertain, but the company will continue to optimize production and increase output [1] - The company has integrated market value management goals into its performance assessment indicators, emphasizing the importance of market value management [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Huaxi Nonferrous Metals, has voluntarily given up its recently acquired mining exploration rights due to overlapping issues with an upcoming railway project, which was unknown at the time of bidding [1][2][4]. Group 1: Acquisition and Significance - Huaxi Nonferrous Metals' subsidiary, Guangxi 215 Geological Team, won the bidding for the mining exploration rights for the Zhaiping lead-zinc mine in Hechi City for nearly 1.26 billion yuan, marking the company's first market-based acquisition of exploration rights [1][2]. - The acquisition was seen as a significant milestone for the company, enhancing its resource control capabilities and sustainable development [2]. Group 2: Withdrawal and Reasons - On July 3, the company announced its decision to abandon the exploration rights and requested a refund of the 1 million yuan deposit due to the discovery that the exploration area overlaps with the design route of the Gui-Gui Railway, which cannot be adjusted [1][3]. - The company stated that it was unaware of the overlapping issue at the time of the bidding process, which has now posed a significant disadvantage to its future exploration and related activities [4]. Group 3: Regulatory Context - The exploration rights were subject to regulations that require bidders to be aware of existing or planned infrastructure, such as railways, and to avoid conflicts during exploration [5]. - The Gui-Gui Railway project had already passed the land use pre-examination by the State Council in December of the previous year, indicating that the railway's planning was established prior to the bidding [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Zinc industry investment trend is偏弱, with a trend intensity of -1 [2][3] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of zinc are under pressure [1] Group 3: Summaries Based on Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Price and Volume**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract was 22,255 yuan/ton, down 1.07%; the closing price of LME zinc 3M electronic disk was 2,741 dollars/ton, down 1.35%. The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract was 178,683 lots, an increase of 17,759 lots; the trading volume of LME zinc was 12,088 lots, a decrease of 377 lots [1] - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc futures inventory was 6,824 tons, a decrease of 253 tons; LME zinc inventory was 114,900 tons, a decrease of 2,575 tons [1] - **Premium and Discount**: Shanghai 0 zinc premium was 35 yuan/ton, unchanged; LME CASH - 3M premium was -10.23 dollars/ton, a decrease of 7.23 dollars/ton [1] 2. News - On June 25th, the 6000t/d beneficiation expansion and renovation project (beneficiation part) of Panlong Lead - Zinc Mine of Guangxi Zhongjin Lingnan Mining Co., Ltd. started. After completion, it will achieve an annual ore - processing capacity of 1.98 million tons and an annual lead - zinc metal output of 60,000 tons [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - For lead, on the previous trading day, the average price of SMM1 lead ingots decreased by 0.15% compared to the previous day, and the closing price of the main Shanghai lead contract dropped by 0.58%. With no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, processing fees are likely to rise. The operation of primary lead is stable with a slight increase, while the operation of secondary lead is at a relatively low level due to rising scrap lead - acid battery prices and limited raw materials. The demand is gradually shifting from the off - season to the peak season, and the drag on lead prices may slow down. However, due to the inventory accumulation risk, the upward momentum of lead prices is limited [1]. - For zinc, on the previous trading day, the average price of SMM1 zinc ingots decreased by 0.94% compared to the previous day, and the main Shanghai zinc contract closed down 1.07%. Refineries have sufficient raw material reserves, zinc concentrate processing fees are rising, and the output is showing an increasing trend. The demand is weak, and most downstream enterprises only replenish inventory as needed. Recently, zinc prices have rebounded due to positive macro - sentiment and supply - side disturbances, but the rebound space is limited, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities after the elimination of favorable factors [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Price and Market Data Lead - SMM1 lead ingot average price: 16,925.00 yuan/ton, - 0.15% [1] - Shanghai lead futures - spot price (main contract closing price): 17,100.00 yuan/ton, - 0.58% [1] - Shanghai lead basis: - 175.00 yuan/ton, + 75.00 [1] - LME 3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic trading): 2,039.00 US dollars/ton, - 0.12% [1] - Shanghai - London lead price ratio: 8.39, - 0.46% [1] Zinc - SMM1 zinc ingot average price: 22,210.00 yuan/ton, - 0.94% [1] - Shanghai zinc futures - spot price (main contract closing price): 22,255.00 yuan/ton, - 1.07% [1] - Shanghai zinc basis: - 45.00 yuan/ton, + 30.00 [1] - LME 3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic trading): 2,713.50 US dollars/ton, - 1.00% [1] - Shanghai - London zinc price ratio: 8.20, - 0.06% [1] 2. Inventory Data Lead - LME inventory: 270,075.00 tons, 0.00% [1] - Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory: 46,389.00 tons, + 0.22% [1] Zinc - LME inventory: 114,900.00 tons, 0.00% [1] - Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory: 6,824.00 tons, - 3.57% [1] 3. Trading Volume and Open Interest Data Lead - Futures active contract trading volume: 31,387.00 lots, - 2.89% [1] - Futures active contract open interest: 51,411.00 lots, + 0.01% [1] - Trading volume - open interest ratio: 0.61, - 2.90% [1] Zinc - Futures active contract trading volume: 178,683.00 lots, + 11.04% [1] - Futures active contract open interest: 134,433.00 lots, - 4.10% [1] - Trading volume - open interest ratio: 1.33, + 15.79% [1] 4. Industry News Lead - Shanghai Municipal Commission of Commerce and other eight departments issued the "Implementation Rules for the Replacement Subsidy of Electric Bicycles in Shanghai in 2025". From July 1 to December 31, 2025, individual consumers who trade in old electric bicycles (including batteries) for new ones will receive a one - time 500 - yuan subsidy, and an additional 100 - yuan subsidy for those who trade in for lead - acid battery electric bicycles [1] - Nandu Power signed a 1.4GWh energy storage system supply contract for a large - scale new - energy photovoltaic project in India [1] Zinc - In April 2025, Peru's zinc concentrate production was 137,600 metal tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.3%, and the total production from January to April was 458,300 metal tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.7% [1] - A mine in southwest China's zinc ore tender price in July was 3,770 yuan/metal ton, a month - on - month increase of 170 yuan/metal ton [1] - Nexa's Cajamarquilla smelter resumed full - scale operation with normal capacity utilization after a three - day shutdown [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The rebound of lead and zinc prices has limited sustainability. For lead, although the price has been rising due to raw material and production cuts in secondary lead, the downstream has not entered the peak season, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation, which restricts the upward momentum. For zinc, although the price has rebounded due to positive macro - sentiment and supply - side disturbances, the rebound may suppress downstream purchasing enthusiasm, and the rebound space is expected to be limited [1]. Summary by Related Information Lead - related Information - **Price and Market Indicators**: On June 30, 2025, the average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 17,000 yuan/ton with no change; the closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai lead was 17,125 yuan/ton, down 0.58%; the Shanghai lead basis was - 125 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the trading volume of the active futures contract was 40,650 lots, down 22.78%; the open interest was 51,800 lots, up 1.21%; the trading - to - open - interest ratio was 0.78, down 23.70%; the LME inventory was 273,425 tons with no change; the Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory was 45,885 tons, up 1.34%; the closing price of LME 3 - month lead futures (electronic trading) was 2,041.50 dollars/ton, up 0.15%; the Shanghai - London lead price ratio was 8.39, down 0.73% [1]. - **Enterprise Operating Rates**: From June 21 to June 27, the weekly operating rate of SMM primary lead enterprises was 66.21%, down 3.8 percentage points month - on - month; the weekly operating rate of secondary lead enterprises was 34.6%, up 4.9 percentage points month - on - month; the weekly operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises was 68.77%, down 4.05 percentage points month - on - month [1]. - **Enterprise Output**: According to Tibet珠峰's 2024 annual report, the total output of lead, zinc, and copper concentrate products was 93,700 tons, including 45,100 tons of lead metal (up 19.22% year - on - year), 47,500 tons of zinc metal (up 5.39% year - on - year), 1,149 tons of copper metal (up 28.99% year - on - year), and 74.27 tons of silver metal [1]. - **Fundamentals**: There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise. The operation of primary lead is stable with a slight increase. For secondary lead, the price of waste lead - acid batteries has been rising, raw materials are in short supply, and some refineries have cut or stopped production. The demand side is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and downstream purchasing is expected to improve, but there is still a risk of inventory accumulation [1]. Zinc - related Information - **Price and Market Indicators**: On June 30, 2025, the average price of SMM1 zinc ingots was 22,500 yuan/ton, up 1.40%; the closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai zinc was 22,410 yuan/ton, up 0.76%; the Shanghai zinc basis was 140 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; the trading volume of the active futures contract was 225,824 lots, up 34.33%; the open interest was 142,428 lots, up 5.01%; the trading - to - open - interest ratio was 1.59, up 27.93%; the LME inventory was 119,225 tons with no change; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory was 6,372 tons, down 1.56%; the closing price of LME 3 - month zinc futures (electronic trading) was 2,778.50 dollars/ton, up 0.31%; the Shanghai - London zinc price ratio was 8.07, up 0.46% [1]. - **Enterprise Operating Rates**: From June 21 to June 27, the weekly operating rate of galvanizing enterprises was 56.21%, down 2.39 percentage points month - on - month; the weekly operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises was 46.54%, down 8.58 percentage points month - on - month; the weekly operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises was 58.72%, down 0.28 percentage points month - on - month [1]. - **Supply - side News**: In July, a zinc mine in North China plans to conduct maintenance for about 10 days, which will affect about 1,500 metal tons of zinc concentrate; as of June 27, the total inventory of zinc concentrate at major Chinese ports was 313,000 tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons from the previous week [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Refineries have sufficient raw material inventories, and zinc concentrate processing fees are rising. The tight supply of zinc concentrate has improved, the restriction on refinery production due to raw material shortages has weakened, and the cost - side support has decreased. The demand side is weak, and downstream enterprises mainly replenish inventory as needed [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a short - allocation view on zinc [1] Core Viewpoints - For lead, although downstream has not entered the peak season and there is a risk of inventory accumulation, the continuous shortage of waste batteries, increased losses of secondary lead smelters, and high uncertainty in production start - up provide strong support for lead prices. Future attention should be paid to the improvement of demand and macro - uncertainty factors [1] - For zinc, although the recent macro sentiment has warmed up, and downstream spot trading has improved after the zinc price decline, considering the supply - side suppression and inventory accumulation expectations, the rebound space of zinc prices is limited, and the short - allocation view is still maintained [1] Summary by Related Content Lead Market - **Price and Market Data**: On June 17, 2025, the average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,750 yuan/ton, down 0.15% from the previous day; the closing price of the main futures contract was 16,980 yuan/ton, up 0.21%. The trading volume of the active futures contract decreased by 7.56% to 30,240 lots, and the open interest decreased by 3.55% to 42,057 lots. The LME inventory remained unchanged at 263,475 tons, while the Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory increased by 2.88% to 45,503 tons [1] - **Supply**: In Q1 2025, overseas lead concentrate production was about 588,000 mt, down 1.8% year - on - year and 6.1% quarter - on - quarter. Australia and North America contributed the most to the decline. It is expected that overseas lead concentrate production will slightly recover in Q2 [1] - **Inventory**: As of June 16, the total inventory of SMM lead ingots in five locations was 56,400 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons from June 9 and 1,600 tons from June 12 [1] - **Fundamentals**: Primary lead production is stable with a slight increase. Secondary lead smelters face raw material shortages and cost - price inversions, resulting in reduced production and increased finished product inventory. The demand side is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and downstream procurement is expected to improve [1] Zinc Market - **Price and Market Data**: On June 17, 2025, the average price of SMM1 zinc ingots was 21,930 yuan/ton, down 1.08% from the previous day; the closing price of the main futures contract was 21,840 yuan/ton, up 0.11%. The trading volume of the active futures contract decreased by 14.17% to 163,962 lots, and the open interest decreased by 5.60% to 116,264 lots. The LME inventory remained unchanged at 130,225 tons, while the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory increased by 11.08% to 9,966 tons [1] - **Supply News**: On June 16, Australian mining company Polymetals Resources Ltd announced that its Endeavor silver - zinc mine in the Cobar region of New South Wales had achieved commercial production. It is expected to produce about 20,000 mt of zinc concentrate in 2025 [1] - **Inventory**: As of June 16, the total inventory of SMM zinc ingots in seven locations was 78,100 tons, a decrease of 3,600 tons from June 9 and an increase of 1,000 tons from June 12 [1] - **Fundamentals**: Zinc smelters have sufficient raw material reserves, and zinc concentrate processing fees are rising. The supply shortage of zinc concentrate has improved, and the production limit on smelters has weakened. The demand side is in the off - season, but downstream procurement has improved after the zinc price decline. However, the zinc price rebound space is limited due to supply - side suppression and inventory accumulation expectations [1]