Report Industry Investment Rating - Both PVC and caustic soda are rated as neutral [11] Core Viewpoints PVC - Supply side: New device overhauls increased during the week, and the PVC operating rate decreased slightly. Supply reduction and stable export delivery led to continuous destocking of PVC social inventory. Future supply pressure may be alleviated. However, downstream demand is weak, and the cost - side support has weakened, with prices moving down. Export uncertainties remain, and the high absolute inventory still drags down prices [8] Caustic Soda - Supply side: Two new chlor - alkali enterprises carried out overhauls, and future overhauls are still numerous, so supply may be tightened. Demand side: Non - aluminum industries and downstream traders increased replenishment, leading to a significant decline in upstream inventory and a price rebound. But overall non - aluminum demand is weak, and the upward trend of prices is still under pressure [10] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - As of April 18, the average operating load rate of calcium carbide was 60.80%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.58%. The overall operating load of PVC was 74.65%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.08%. The loss due to parking and overhauls was 13.23 tons, a decrease of 0.40 tons from last week. Warehouse total inventory was 41.38 tons, a decrease of 0.85 tons from last week [3][4][5] Caustic Soda - As of April 18, the operating rate of caustic soda was 82.30%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.50%. The output was 79.20 tons, a decrease of 1.71 tons from last week. The upstream inventory was 42.92 tons, a decrease of 5.31 tons from last week [6][7] Strategy - PVC: It is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern. Pay attention to the implementation of overhauls and the recovery of downstream demand [11] - Caustic Soda: Although supply is expected to tighten slightly, the upward trend of prices is still under pressure. Pay attention to downstream procurement rhythm and the implementation of overhauls [11]

氯碱日报 | 2025-04-17 下游补货增加，烧碱现价延续上涨 氯碱观点 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4921元/吨（-10）；华东基差-71元/吨（+10）;华南基差19元/吨（+10）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4850元/吨（+0）；华南电石法报价4940元/吨（+0）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格605元/吨（+0）；电石价格3030元/吨（+0）；电石利润256元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-781元/吨（-54）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-628元/吨（+6）；PVC出口利润10.9美元/吨（+4.1）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存45.2万吨（-0.2）；PVC社会库存45.1万吨（-0.3）；PVC电石法开工率79.00%（-1.16%）； PVC乙烯法开工率65.00%（-3.36%）；PVC开工率75.00%（-1.87%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量56.0万吨（-6.1）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2414元/吨（-11）；山东32%液碱基差24元/吨（+42）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价780元/吨（+10）；山东50 ...

Report Overview - Report Type: Weekly Report on Caustic Soda - Writing Time: April 14, 2025 - Review Period: Weekly - Researcher: He Ning - Consulting License Number: Z0001219 Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Report Core View - Affected by the overall macro - sentiment, caustic soda futures opened lower last week. After a small rebound, it continued to weaken, hitting a new low for the year. With high inventory and high production, the future trend is expected to remain weak. Attention should be paid to downstream procurement progress and macro - policy changes [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Market Review - **Price**: After the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, affected by the macro - environment, caustic soda futures opened lower. The SH main contract continued to find the bottom, hitting an annual low of 2,267 yuan/ton on Wednesday. As of April 11, 2025, the closing price of the main caustic soda contract was 2,361 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan/ton from last week, a decrease of 5.60% [4]. - **Supply**: Caustic soda weekly production decreased by 0.32 million tons to 83.26 million tons, and flake caustic soda weekly production decreased by 0.88 million tons to 10.61 million tons. The weekly loss of caustic soda was 6.16 million tons, an increase of 0.83 million tons compared with the previous week. It is expected that the upstream maintenance loss will increase next week [4]. - **Inventory**: The factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in the country was 471,300 tons (wet tons), a decrease of 0.65% month - on - month and 5.51% year - on - year. The storage capacity ratio of national liquid caustic soda sample enterprises this week was 27.82%, an increase of 0.34% month - on - month [5]. - **Cost**: The price of raw salt was lowered again. The price of sea salt in Shandong was 245 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton. The price of well - mine salt in Central China remained at 270 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton, and the price of lake salt in the Northwest remained at 240 yuan/ton [5]. - **Profit**: The average weekly gross profit of chlor - alkali enterprises in Shandong was 533 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.61% compared with the previous week. The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong was continuously lowered this week, while the price of liquid chlorine increased, resulting in a decline in the overall chlor - alkali profit [5]. - **Demand**: The capacity utilization rate of alumina was 78.88%, a decrease of 4.49% month - on - month. The price of alumina continued to decline this week. As of April 11, the average price of alumina in Shanxi was 2,870 yuan/ton. The operating rate of non - aluminum downstream viscose was 83.61%, a decrease of 4.46% month - on - month; the operating rate of printing and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 64.35%, a decrease of 4.13% month - on - month. In terms of exports, the quotation of liquid caustic soda was stable with minor fluctuations. The export quotation of 50% caustic soda in East China this week was FOB 440 - 450 US dollars/ton [5]. II. Illustrations - The report provides six illustrations including domestic caustic soda operating rate, domestic sample enterprise liquid caustic soda factory inventory, domestic viscose staple fiber industry capacity utilization rate, caustic soda main contract basis, spot liquid caustic soda price, and caustic soda main continuous K - line (daily line) [6][9][13]

前十大流通股东累计持有： 58197.65万股，累计占流通股比： 50.32%，较上期变化： 83.38万股。 | 名称 | 持有数量(万股) | 占总股本比 | 增减情况 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 例(%) | (万股) | | 上海华谊控股集团有限公司 | 53880.56 | 46.59 | 不变 | | ISHARES CORE MSCI EMERGING MARKETS ETF | 774.33 | 0.67 | 3.72 | | VANGUARD EMERGING MARKETS STOCK INDEX FUND | 634.94 | 0.55 | 不变 | | 香港中央结算有限公司 | 602.81 | 0.52 | 17.30 | | VANGUARD TOTAL INTERNATIONAL STOCK INDEX FUND | 537.09 | 0.46 | 不变 | | 孙月龙 | 390.32 | 0.34 | 不变 | | SPDR Portfolio Emerging Markets ETF | 367.95 | 0.32 | 7.65 | ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The spring maintenance of caustic soda was less than expected, with high production capacity. In the short term, the downstream market was volatile and weak. The demand for pulp, viscose staple fiber, and printing and dyeing weakened, dragging down the overall performance. The market is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term and operate weakly in the medium term. Attention should be paid to inventory pressure transmission, alumina production, and exports [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price and Spread - **Futures Price**: On April 11, the closing price of the main caustic soda contract (SH2505) was 2,361 yuan/ton, down 0.13% from the previous trading day [6]. - **Spot Price**: The weekly average price of 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 819 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 4.88%. The 100% equivalent price of 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 2,559.375 yuan/ton, and that of 50% was 2,780 yuan/ton. The 100% equivalent price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Jiangsu was 2,687.5 yuan/ton [6]. - **Price Spread**: The report presents the price spread data of different types of caustic soda in various regions from March 28 to April 4, 2025 [19]. 3.2 Supply and Demand - **Supply**: The average utilization rate of caustic soda enterprise production capacity this week was 83.9%, a week-on-week increase of 0.6%. The actual supply reduction was limited as previously overhauled units gradually resumed production [7]. - **Demand**: The alumina开工率 this week was 83.6%. In March, the domestic alumina production was about 7.22 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 11.6%. An additional production capacity of 1.6 million tons is expected in April. In the viscose staple fiber industry, there is no new production capacity in 2025, and the开工 rate this week was 88.36% (a week-on-week increase of 2.43%). The new pulp production capacity was 180,000 tons, and the开工 rate this week was 85%. The开工率 of printing and dyeing factories in East China this week was 75% (a week-on-week decrease of 5%). The weighted average开工率 of the overall downstream was 82.36% (a week-on-week decrease of 1.82 percentage points), and the demand from non-aluminum industries (such as pulp) dragged down the overall performance [7]. 3.3 Inventory As of April 10, 2025, the factory inventory of sample enterprises with a liquid caustic soda production capacity of 200,000 tons or more nationwide was 471,300 tons (wet tons), a week-on-week decrease of 0.65% and a year-on-year decrease of 5.51% [8]. 3.4 Profit - **Shandong Region**: The loss of liquid chlorine dragged down the comprehensive profit. The ex-factory price of liquid chlorine was -500 yuan/ton (a week-on-week decrease of 166.67%); the comprehensive profit of PVC + 0.86 caustic soda was 96.74 yuan/ton (a week-on-week decrease of 60.79%), and the PVC loss narrowed. - **Northwest Region**: The profit of liquid chlorine provided support. The ex-factory price of liquid chlorine in the northwest was +100 yuan/ton (a week-on-week increase of 12.5%); the comprehensive profit of PVC + 0.87 caustic soda was 1,255.50 yuan/ton (a week-on-week decrease of 10.69%), maintaining high profits [8].

氯碱日报 | 2025-04-10 山东下游采购价再下调，烧碱延续偏弱运行 氯碱观点 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4861元/吨（-46）；华东基差-91元/吨（-4）;华南基差-21元/吨（-24）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4770元/吨（-50）；华南电石法报价4840元/吨（-70）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格605元/吨（+0）；电石价格3080元/吨（-5）；电石利润306元/吨（-5）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-727元/吨（-18）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-634元/吨（-36）；PVC出口利润21.6美元/吨（+2.2）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存45.4万吨（+1.3）；PVC社会库存45.4万吨（-1.5）；PVC电石法开工率82.4%（+0.5%）； PVC乙烯法开工率73.8%（-0.6%）；PVC开工率80.0%（+0.2%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量62.1万吨（+0.3）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2355元/吨（-17）；山东32%液碱基差161元/吨（+1）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价805元/吨（-5）；山东50 ...

交易咨询业务：沪证监许可【2012】 1515号 能化产品周报—烧碱 2025年4月8日 研究员： 屠越海 执业编号:Z0019382 审核：唐韵Z0002422 http://www.eafutures.com 免责声明：本报告的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不做任何 保证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考， 报告中的信息或意见并不构成所述证券或期货的买卖出价或征价，投资者据此做出 的任何投 资决策与本公司和作者无关。 地址：上海市虹口区东大名路1089号26层2601-2608单元 基本面要点： 价格：4 月 8 日，烧碱主力合约（SH2505）收盘报 2477元 / 吨，较前一交易日下跌 1.39%。现货市场：山东：32% 液碱出厂价降至 3109 元 / 吨，50% 离子膜液碱送到价 2840-2940 元 / 吨，江苏地区 32% 液碱折百价为 2687.5 元 / 吨。江苏 - 山东 32 碱折百价差收窄至 218.75 元 / 吨，山东 50 碱与 32 碱折百价差为 71.25 元 / 吨。 供给：2025 年国内烧碱新增产能 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The overall profit of chlor-alkali decreased last week due to the decline in the price of Shandong liquid caustic soda and the increase in the price of liquid chlorine. The current appearance of warehouse receipts in caustic soda futures and the continuous decline in spot prices are expected to strengthen the basis. The mutual imposition of tariffs between China and the US has little impact on caustic soda but a greater impact on its downstream industries, which, combined with the current weak spot price of liquid caustic soda, has a bearish impact on caustic soda futures [7]. Summary by Section Chlor-Alkali Overview - **Supply**: Last week, the production of liquid caustic soda was 794,800 tons, a slight increase from the previous week. The national load is expected to increase first and then decrease, with the weekly average load slightly increasing to about 85%, and the production this week is expected to reach 816,000 tons. The purchase price of liquid caustic soda by Shandong alumina enterprises decreased by 94 yuan/ton to 2,438 yuan/ton. The production of viscose staple fiber last week was 81,100 tons, a slight decrease from the previous week [7]. - **Demand**: The operating rate last week was 68.51%, remaining stable from the previous week. In February, the export volume of liquid caustic soda was 319,000 tons, and the export volume of flake caustic soda was 27,000 tons [7]. - **Inventory**: Last week, the inventory of liquid caustic soda was 474,000 tons, a slight decrease from the previous week. There was a reduction in the inventory of low-concentration caustic soda in Shandong, but an increase in the inventory of high-concentration caustic soda due to poor export order demand [7]. - **Profit**: Last week, the overall chlor-alkali profit decreased. The chlor-alkali profit in Shandong on Thursday was 557 yuan/ton [7]. - **Valuation**: The SH5 - 9 spread remained in the range of -168 to -96, the price of futures contract SH05 showed a downward trend, and the basis is expected to strengthen [7]. Chlor-Alkali Prices - **Spot Prices**: Included price trends of Shandong 32% caustic soda, 50% caustic soda, liquid chlorine, etc., from 2022 to 2025 [11]. - **Flake Caustic Soda and Export Prices**: Showed price trends of Shandong and Inner Mongolia flake caustic soda, as well as FOB prices of 50% liquid caustic soda and 99% flake caustic soda in North China from 2021 to 2025 [14]. - **Futures Prices, Spreads, and Basis**: Presented the basis of 32% and 50% caustic soda main contracts in Shandong, SH05 - SH09 spread, and the price trend of the caustic soda main contract from 2023 to 2025 [17]. - **Raw Salt and Coal Prices**: Displayed price trends of Shandong sea salt, Indian industrial salt CIF, and Qinhuangdao steam - coal closing price from 2021 to 2025 [20]. Caustic Soda Supply - **Production, Inventory, and Profit**: Showed the production of caustic soda, inventory of liquid caustic soda, and the profit of Shandong chlor-alkali enterprises from 2021 to 2025 [25]. - **Chlor-Alkali Plant Maintenance**: Listed the maintenance situations of chlor-alkali plants last week and the planned maintenance situations in the future [27]. Chlor-Alkali Demand - **Alumina**: Included the price, production, and profit trends of Shandong alumina from 2021 to 2025 [32]. - **Viscose Staple Fiber and Printing and Dyeing**: Showed the weekly production, factory inventory, and price of viscose staple fiber, as well as the operating rate of East China printing and dyeing from 2021 to 2025 [35]. - **Pulp and Paper**: Presented the production of paper products and the available inventory days of upstream factories from 2022 to 2025 [38]. - **Export**: Displayed the monthly export volume of liquid caustic soda, flake caustic soda, cumulative export volume, and monthly export volume of caustic soda from 2021 to 2025 [41]. - **Epoxy Propane**: Included the price, profit, production, and operating rate trends of Shandong epoxy propane from 2021 to 2025 [44].

Group 1: Market Overview - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant fluctuations in the domestic caustic soda futures prices during February and March, driven by supply and demand dynamics, with prices dropping to 2550 yuan per ton [1][2]. - The market experienced a strong price increase before the Spring Festival due to good supply-demand conditions, but post-festival, the market shifted focus back to actual supply-demand conditions, leading to a second wave of price decline in March [1][2]. Group 2: Supply Dynamics - The caustic soda industry is currently operating at an 84.5% capacity utilization rate, which is a 0.9% decrease from the previous period, with several production units undergoing maintenance [5]. - In March, seven production units have already been taken offline for maintenance, with an additional eight units expected to be offline in April, affecting a total production capacity of 2.64 million tons [5]. Group 3: Demand Analysis - The demand for caustic soda from the downstream aluminum oxide industry has shown fluctuations, with increased production capacity and stable operating rates providing some support for caustic soda demand [7]. - The paper pulp industry has also seen a recovery in operating rates, contributing positively to caustic soda demand, while the viscose sector has reported a year-on-year increase in production [7]. Group 4: Export Trends - In December 2024, China exported 30.23 million tons of liquid caustic soda, marking an increase of 19.29 million tons year-on-year, while exports of solid caustic soda slightly decreased [11]. Group 5: Inventory Levels - Since March, domestic caustic soda production company inventories have decreased from a peak of approximately 480,000 tons to 459,700 tons, indicating a gradual recovery in demand [13]. Group 6: Profitability Insights - The production profits of domestic caustic soda enterprises have generally declined compared to the fourth quarter of the previous year, with a slight rebound in March, primarily due to a decrease in liquid caustic soda prices [15]. Group 7: Conclusion and Future Outlook - The current caustic soda futures are significantly lower than the spot prices, indicating a bearish market sentiment, but the strong demand in the spot market suggests potential for future price recovery [17]. - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring inventory trends and domestic consumption policies as key factors influencing the future performance of caustic soda futures [17].

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