基金投资价值分析 一键布局港股通+红利+低波——标普港股通低波红利指数投资价值 分析 一键布局港股通+红利+低波 经济增速下行，低利率时代，红利策略未来依然有效：随着经济增速的下行， 能够持续提供较高的成长性的公司越来越难找到，因此投资者更倾向于寻找 相对确定性更高的资产，有利于红利策略。红利策略具有"类债券"属性， 在低利率期间红利策略的性价比相对较高。当前利率水平保持较低水平，为 配置红利类策略好时机。 证券研究报告 | 2026年01月10日 政策推动红利资产吸引力提升：随着政策支持为红利资产注入长期估值重塑 动能，上市公司分红力度持续加大。近年来，上市公司分红金额逐年增长， 尤其是 2024 年以来，上市公司分红力度明显加大。后续随着分红制度的持 续完善，红利资产的股息吸引力将进一步提升。 红利资产内部，港股红利低波产品具备更好投资性价比：相比 A 股，港股红 利的股息率仍更具吸引力。对比其他红利类指数的估值和股息率，截至 2025 年 12 月 31 日，标普港股通低波红利指数（SPAHLVCP.SPI）的近 12 个月 股息率为 5.6%，PE（TTM）为 5.7 倍，在估值和股息率上具备比较优势 ...

长沙晚报掌上长沙1月10日讯（全媒体记者 刘嘉）1月9日，长沙市住房和城乡建设局公开通报了一批住建行业从 业单位信息，对施工现场未落实扬尘污染防治要求、存在严重污染问题的4家企业予以曝光。被曝光的单位包括长 沙麓山城市更新投资建设有限公司、长沙凯宝房地产有限公司、湖南江右置业有限公司以及长沙雨航通金企业管 理有限公司。 此次曝光涉及的项目具体为：长沙麓山城市更新投资建设有限公司负责的观沙岭城市更新片区（旧城改建）项目 白岳路（环岳路—岳华路）工程；长沙凯宝房地产有限公司开发的凯宝城市广场项目；湖南江右置业有限公司建 设的中欣时代广场1#栋A座、1#栋B座、裙楼主体工程项目；以及长沙雨航通金企业管理有限公司所属的阳光城尚 东湾天樾府项目2#栋、3#栋、S2#栋、S3#栋、S5#栋、S6#栋、S7#幼儿园、S8#垃圾站。 下一步，市住建局将继续加强施工现场环保监管，推动全市建筑行业绿色、规范施工，助力城市环境质量持续改 善。 | | | | 从北单位 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 序号 | 企业名称 | 类型 程度 | 曝光内容描述 | 发布有效期至 ...

1月9日晚间，中国武夷公告称，公司就与南安市泛家开发建设有限公司（简称"泛家建设"或"被申请人"）的合同纠纷正式向福州仲裁委员会提起仲裁，并 已收到立案受理通知书 ，涉案金额约2.16亿元。 据公告，2019年12月16日，中国武夷与泛家建设签订《合作开发协议》，共同出资10000万元设立南安武夷泛家置业有限责任公司（简称"南安武夷"）合 作开发"南安武夷时代天越"房地产项目。中国武夷持有南安武夷65%股份，泛家建设持有南安武夷35%股份。 《合作开发协议》约定，项目开发资金优先通过项目公司融资解决，融资不足部分由双方按股权比例提供股东借款，借款年利率为10%；若一方未能按约 定比例足额出资，另一方若同意代为垫付，垫付款项按年利率10%计收利息，且未出资方需以其持有的项目公司股权及相关债权提供质押担保。 截至1月9日收盘，中国武夷报3.85元/股，公司总市值60.47亿元。 商报君送福利 看推文多多留言 有机会获商报君送出的礼品 自2023年起，泛家建设多次未能按约定比例提供股东借款，中国武夷已依约为其垫付多笔款项。此外，协议约定，项目公司对外融资时，若泛家建设无法 按其股权比例向金融机构提供有效担保，则应由 ...

Core Viewpoint - The retirement of Yu Liang, a key figure in Vanke's operations for 36 years, marks the end of an era, coinciding with significant challenges in the company's long-term rental apartment business, "Boyu" [2][12]. Group 1: Management Changes - Yu Liang has officially retired from his positions as director and executive vice president, which is seen as a pivotal moment for Vanke [2]. - His leadership was instrumental in positioning long-term rental apartments as a core business, despite acknowledging the challenges and low profitability associated with this sector [2][12]. Group 2: Rental Business Challenges - Vanke's long-term rental brand "Boyu" is facing a crisis, with mass tenant evictions occurring in cities like Shenzhen, Wuhan, and Hangzhou, attributed to rental disputes with landlords [3][6]. - Landlords have reported significant rent arrears from Vanke, with some claiming overdue payments exceeding 100,000 yuan, leading to demands for contract termination before receiving owed rents [5][10]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Vanke's rental residential business has shown stable revenue growth, with revenues of 32.4 billion yuan in 2022, 34.6 billion yuan in 2023, and projected 37.02 billion yuan in 2024, although it still represents less than 2% of the company's total revenue [12]. - The overall financial situation of Vanke is concerning, with a reported revenue decline of 26.61% year-on-year and a net loss of 28.02 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025 [13][14]. Group 4: Debt and Cash Flow Issues - Vanke is under significant debt pressure, with total interest-bearing liabilities reaching 362.93 billion yuan and a cash shortfall exceeding 85 billion yuan [14]. - The company is exploring various measures to improve liquidity, including shareholder loans and asset sales, but faces challenges in debt negotiations and has seen support from its largest shareholder, Shenzhen Metro Group, diminish [17][18]. Group 5: Strategic Adjustments - Vanke is attempting to mitigate losses by terminating contracts with high-cost, low-yield properties, particularly in urban villages, to improve cash flow [15]. - The company has previously suspended new contracts for its "Wancun Plan" due to high renovation costs and long payback periods, indicating a strategic shift in its rental business approach [15].

Core Viewpoint - Vanke's long-serving executive Yu Liang has officially retired, marking the end of an era, coinciding with significant turmoil in its rental apartment brand "Boyu" due to tenant evictions and landlord disputes [2][3][4] Group 1: Management Changes - Yu Liang, a key figure in Vanke for 36 years, has stepped down from his roles as director and executive vice president [2] - Under Yu's leadership, Vanke prioritized long-term rental apartments as a core business, despite acknowledging the challenges and low profitability of the sector [2] Group 2: Tenant Evictions and Landlord Disputes - Vanke's rental brand "Boyu" is facing a large-scale tenant eviction crisis across cities like Shenzhen, Wuhan, and Hangzhou, with tenants receiving short notice to vacate [4][6] - The evictions are linked to disputes over unpaid rent between Vanke and landlords, with some landlords reporting overdue payments exceeding 100,000 yuan [3][4] - Tenants have been offered relocation options, including free moves to other Boyu locations or direct refunds, but many are concerned about the lack of prior notice [6][7] Group 3: Financial Performance and Challenges - Vanke's rental housing business has shown stable revenue growth, with revenues of 32.4 billion yuan in 2022, 34.6 billion yuan in 2023, and projected 37.02 billion yuan in 2024, but it still represents less than 2% of total revenue [8] - The company is experiencing severe financial difficulties, with a reported revenue drop of 26.61% year-on-year and a net loss of 28.02 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025 [9] - Vanke's total interest-bearing debt reached 362.93 billion yuan, with a cash shortfall exceeding 85 billion yuan, highlighting a critical liquidity crisis [9][10] Group 4: Strategic Adjustments - Vanke is attempting to mitigate cash flow issues by terminating contracts with high-cost, low-yield properties, despite the associated short-term pain [10] - The company has faced challenges in debt negotiations, with significant support from its largest shareholder, Shenzhen Metro Group, diminishing [11][12] - Upcoming meetings regarding debt extensions are crucial, as they are set against tight deadlines that could lead to defaults if not resolved [12]

Core Viewpoint - Dongfang Cable plans to invest 73.299 million yuan to purchase 32 residential units from its controlling shareholder's affiliate, Ningbo Dongfang Nanyuan Real Estate, to address employee housing needs, despite concerns over the financial health of the seller and the transaction's structure [1][4]. Financial Health of the Seller - Ningbo Dongfang Nanyuan Real Estate has total assets of 730 million yuan but a negative net asset of 92.5131 million yuan, indicating insolvency [1][2]. - The company reported a net loss of 10.3174 million yuan and a negative cash flow from operating activities of 266.7 million yuan for the first 11 months of 2025 [1][2]. Property Status and Financing - The property involved in the transaction is currently mortgaged, with a loan of approximately 420 million yuan due by September 2026 [2]. - Dongfang Cable's parent company has committed to cover the debts of the real estate company, and the bank has agreed to extend the loan term to September 2028 [2]. Project Development and Delivery - The "Yunxie Puting" project is expected to complete interior decoration by October 30, 2026, and pass project acceptance by February 28, 2027 [2][3]. - Dongfang Cable asserts that the real estate company can deliver the property on time, mitigating concerns about project delays [3]. Pricing and Payment Structure - The purchase price of approximately 1.75 million yuan per square meter is deemed reasonable compared to nearby properties, which have higher average prices [4][5]. - The payment structure has been adjusted to a staggered plan: 50% upfront, 35% after construction acceptance, and 15% upon obtaining property rights [5].

我有个朋友最近特别纠结，在他的家乡三线城市买了套房子，花了一大笔钱。现在他突然听说，房子可 能会继续下跌。他坐立不安，每天都在看房价走势。他问我，是不是买错了。还有一个亲戚，一直在一 线城市的周边地区看房，原来想赶上"最后的涨幅"，现在也在犹豫。他们的故事，其实代表了很多人现 在的处境。房地产市场发生了变化，这个变化很大，而且似乎是不可逆转的。有人用了一个很贴切的比 喻，叫做"潮水退去"。意思是，那个让房价不断上升的环境已经结束了。现在我们要面对的，是一个全 新的房地产市场。 房地产市场曾经是什么样的。过去的20多年里，房价就像一列不停向上的列车。不管是一线城市、二线 城市，还是三四线城市，房价几乎都在上升。有人说，买房就像买彩票一样，只要买进去，就等着升 值。很多人因为这个信念，不管有没有需要，都去买房。有的人买了一套，又买第二套。房地产市场就 这样越来越热。 但这样的情况能永远持续下去吗。显然不能。人口老龄化在推进，年轻人口在减少。城市化也已经进行 了这么多年，能转移的农民工大部分都已经转移到了城市。房地产需求的增长动力在减弱。同时，高房 价也在抑制需求。年轻人要用这么多年的工资才能买一套房，很多人就放弃 ...

Core Viewpoint - The retirement of Yu Liang marks the end of an era for the Chinese real estate industry, symbolizing the transition from a period of rapid growth to one filled with uncertainty and challenges for companies like Vanke [7][23]. Group 1: Yu Liang's Career and Impact - Yu Liang, a key figure in the Chinese real estate sector, has been recognized as the "whistleblower" of the industry, known for his foresight and ability to predict market shifts [9]. - Under Yu's leadership, Vanke achieved significant milestones, including surpassing 100 billion yuan in sales in 2010, becoming the first real estate company in China to reach this scale [12]. - Yu's cautious approach, influenced by his financial background, led him to advocate for a shift from aggressive expansion to quality development, coining terms like "white silver era" and "black iron era" to describe the industry's evolution [12][10]. Group 2: Vanke's Challenges and Management Changes - Vanke has faced severe challenges, including a debt crisis, with total interest-bearing liabilities reaching 362.93 billion yuan and short-term debts of 151.39 billion yuan as of Q3 2025, while cash reserves stood at only 65.68 billion yuan [19]. - The company underwent significant management changes, with Yu Liang stepping down as chairman and the appointment of new executives from the Shenzhen state-owned enterprise system, marking a shift towards a dual management model [16]. - Vanke's financial struggles led to a downgrade by international rating agencies to "junk" status, with a reported net loss of 28.02 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a 56.14% increase year-on-year [20]. Group 3: Debt Management and Future Outlook - To address its debt issues, Vanke has received nearly 30 billion yuan in funding support from its major shareholder, Shenzhen Metro Group, and is exploring asset management strategies like REITs [20]. - The company aims to deliver 117,000 housing units in 2025, having completed about 70% of the required deliveries for the past two years [20]. - Despite attempts to restructure its debt, Vanke's proposals have faced significant opposition, indicating ongoing challenges in achieving financial stability [23].

Core Viewpoint - The resignation of Yu Liang marks the end of an era for Vanke and symbolizes the decline of the golden age of China's real estate industry [6][10][17]. Company Summary - On January 8, Vanke announced that Yu Liang, the company's executive vice president and board member, submitted his resignation due to reaching retirement age, effective immediately [3][14]. - Yu Liang joined Vanke in 1990 and served for 36 years, but his departure is seen as a reflection of the broader challenges facing the real estate sector in China [5][16]. - Vanke stated that Yu's resignation would not affect the company's normal operations and that there were no disagreements between him and the board [5][16]. Industry Summary - Yu Liang was one of the first to recognize the turning point in the real estate industry, predicting a shift from a "golden age" to a "silver age" as early as 2012, and later referring to the current state as the "black iron age" [7][19]. - As of September 2025, Vanke's total interest-bearing debt reached 362.9 billion yuan, a record high, with over 150 billion yuan due within a year, while available cash was only around 60 billion yuan [8][19]. - Vanke faced a significant default risk, with two medium-term notes totaling 5.7 billion yuan failing to secure an extension, leading to downgrades by international rating agencies [8][19]. - The real estate market has cooled significantly, with difficulties in selling land and properties, and banks tightening lending, impacting even established companies like Vanke [20]. - The management structure at Vanke has changed, with new leadership from Shenzhen state-owned enterprises, indicating a shift away from the previous management style [9][20]. - The era of high leverage and rapid turnover in the real estate sector has ended, with the current market conditions posing severe challenges for companies to sustain operations [20][22].

热点新知 这个问题特别有代表性，就在很多人迷茫的时候，我翻到了万科创始人王石最近的一段发言，看完之后，有种豁然开朗的感觉。 王石的核心观点非常明确：房地产已经从投资品回归消费品。 这句话听起来简单，但你要去细想就不一样了，过去二十年，我们习惯了把房子看作资产，看作财富增值的工具。 一套房子，住几年转手一卖，赚的钱可能比工作十年还多，这种预期已经深深刻在了很多人的思维里。 但王石提醒我们：那个时代已经结束了。 打个比方，过去买房就像买黄金，等着升值，现在买房就像买汽车，从入手那一刻起，它就开始折旧，开始消耗你的资金。 你买一辆车，会指望三年后卖掉还能赚钱吗？不会。 你现在买房，也需要有这样的心态。 为什么王石会这么说？咱们看看数据。 第一，城镇化速度放缓。大规模人口进城的高峰期已经过去。 第二，人均居住面积达到40平米，超过了大多数发达国家水平。 第三，这是最关键的一点，存量房数量远远超过新增需求。 很多城市挂牌出售的二手房数量，已经是每月成交量的十倍以上，什么意思？就是卖房的人比买房的人多得多，这种市场下，房价凭什么涨？ 假设你三年前花300万买了一套房，首付100万，贷款200万。 这三年你付出了什么？房贷 ...