通信ETF（515880）近20日净流入超37亿元，光模块行业长期景气度获市场关注，回调或可布局 （责任编辑：董萍萍 ） 国信证券指出，全球算力高景气度延续，北美光模块、光芯片等公司业绩指引强劲，Tower半导体 2025Q3营收同比增长7%，硅光子业务收入同比大增70%，预计产能将提升3倍以上；AMD预计未来3-5 年数据中心业务年复合增长率超60%，思科FY2026Q1营收同比增长8%，AI基础设施订单达13亿美元。 国内方面，百度发布昆仑芯超节点技术，单卡性能提升95%，卫星互联网加速推进，第13组低轨卫星成 功发射。通信设备行业受益于AI算力基础设施需求，光器件、液冷等细分领域持续景气，运营商经营 稳健且分红比例提升，具备长期配置价值。 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 通信ETF（515880）跟踪的是通信设备指数（931160），该指数从市场中选取涉及通信网络基础设 施、通信终端 ...

机构分析认为，光模块"量价齐增"受益于供需两端的多重因素共振：需求侧，全球云厂商资本开支持续 上修，算力建设需求旺盛；供给侧，技术迭代加速，头部厂商积极扩产满足增长需求。随着全球算力投 资规模不断扩大、技术迭代持续加速，光通信产业链将维持高景气度。 把握光模块等算力、AI应用核心机会，建议重点关注全市场首只创业板人工智能ETF（159363）及场 外联接（A类023407、C类023408），标的指数重点布局光模块龙头"易中天"，光模块含量超54%。从 赛道分布看，逾七成仓位布局算力，超两成仓位布局AI应用，能够高效捕捉AI主题行情。（截至 2025.10.31） 数据来源：沪深交易所等。注："全市场首只"是指首只跟踪创业板人工智能指数的ETF。 风险提示：创业板人工智能ETF华宝被动跟踪创业板人工智能指数，该指数基日为2018.12.28，发布日 期为2024.7.11。创业板人工智能指数2020-2024年年度涨跌幅分别为：20.1%、17.57%、-34.52%、 47.83%、38.44%，指数成份股构成根据该指数编制规则适时调整，其回测历史业绩不预示指数未来表 现。文中指数成份股仅作展示，个股描述不 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs expresses strong confidence in the growth prospects of Zhongji Xuchuang, raising the target price by 62% to RMB 762 and maintaining a "Buy" rating based on the company's robust growth potential in the 800G/1.6T optical module and silicon photonics technology sectors [1] Group 1: Financial Projections - Goldman Sachs forecasts a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 59% for Zhongji Xuchuang's net profit from 2025 to 2028, with 800G optical module revenue expected to surge by 104% year-on-year in 2026 and 1.6T optical module revenue projected to skyrocket by 110% in 2027, supporting an overall revenue CAGR of 52% during the same period [3] - The net profit estimates for 2026 and 2027 have been raised by 23% and 28%, reaching RMB 21.645 billion and RMB 29.944 billion, respectively, driven by higher revenue and gross margin expectations [3] - Operating profit margin is anticipated to increase from 25% in 2024 to 39% in 2028, reflecting sustained growth supported by long-term demand trends in AI networks [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The diversification of ASIC chips is reshaping the demand landscape for optical modules, with ASIC chips expected to account for 38%, 40%, and 45% of the AI chip market from 2025 to 2027 [4] - The architectural differences between GPU and ASIC servers lead to a significant increase in the dependency on multiple chips, servers, and rack connections, thereby driving stronger demand for high-speed connections [5] Group 3: Technology and Product Upgrades - The transition from 400G to 800G is becoming a major driver for the optical module upgrade cycle, with expectations for continued trends in the coming years, including the deployment of 1.6T optical modules starting in the second half of 2025 [6] - As optical modules upgrade to higher speeds, market competition is expected to decrease due to higher technical barriers in design, testing, and production efficiency, benefiting technologically advanced companies [6] - Revenue contribution from 800G and 1.6T products is projected to increase significantly, from 64% and 8% in 2025 to 71% and 16% in 2026, respectively, making this product structure upgrade a core engine for revenue growth [6] Group 4: Margin Expansion - Gross margin is expected to rise from 41.6% in 2025 to 46.4% in 2027, primarily due to faster speed migration and the transition from EML to silicon photonics technology [7] - Silicon photonics technology offers better gross margin performance compared to EML, with reduced component costs and improved production efficiency [7] Group 5: Valuation Adjustments - Goldman Sachs has significantly raised its revenue forecasts for 2026 and 2027 by 24% and 35%, respectively, reflecting accelerated growth in mainstream products [8] - The target price has been adjusted from RMB 470 to RMB 762, applying a target price-to-earnings ratio of 31 times, consistent with recent trading averages [8]

Core Insights - The main point of the news is the significant net inflow and outflow of funds across various industries, highlighting the performance of specific sectors and companies in the market. Industry Summary - The main stock markets experienced a net outflow of 366.03 billion yuan, with the ChiNext board seeing a net outflow of 167.5 billion yuan [2] - Among the 7 industries that saw gains, the building materials sector led with a 1.4% increase, while the beauty and coal industries faced declines exceeding 2% [2] - Six industries received net inflows, with the telecommunications sector leading at 14.28 billion yuan, followed by real estate at 5.32 billion yuan [2] - The electricity equipment sector had the highest net outflow at 61.67 billion yuan, with electronics, computers, and pharmaceutical industries also seeing significant outflows [2] Company Summary - Nvidia reported third-quarter revenue of 57.01 billion USD, a 62% year-on-year increase, surpassing market expectations of 55.19 billion USD [4] - Two leading optical module stocks, New Yisheng and Tianfu Communication, attracted significant net inflows of 9.92 billion yuan and 7 billion yuan, respectively [3][4] - Consumer electronics stock Huaying Technology saw a net inflow of 4.69 billion yuan, with related stocks experiencing price surges [4] - Chemical stocks such as Duofluor and HBM concept stock Xiangnong Xinchuan faced net outflows exceeding 13 billion yuan [6]

Group 1 - The optical module industry is experiencing a continuous increase in demand, with high visibility for next year's demand and ongoing upward revisions of order guidance, leading to a supply-demand imbalance becoming the norm in the industry [1] - Key upstream materials affecting the delivery capabilities of optical module manufacturers include EML optical chips, CW light sources, silicon optical chips, and passive optical devices, highlighting investment opportunities in these core upstream segments [1] - Silicon photonics technology is gaining significant advantages and is continuously capturing market share from EML, particularly excelling at 1.6T rates [1] Group 2 - Leading companies in the industry are actively expanding their production capacity, with Tower Semiconductor planning to increase its silicon photonics and silicon germanium business, targeting over $220 million in silicon photonics revenue by 2025 [1] - The optical module and optical chip businesses are transitioning from technological breakthroughs to a phase of scaling up, with future adaptations to market changes expected through deep collaboration and innovation [1] - The Communication ETF (515880) tracks the communication equipment index (931160), focusing on companies involved in communication network infrastructure and terminal equipment production, reflecting the overall performance and development trends of the communication equipment industry [1]

Core Viewpoint - The AI computing power industry chain is experiencing a strong upward trend, driven by Nvidia's impressive earnings report, which has boosted market sentiment and technology stocks globally [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - On November 20, the AI computing power industry chain opened high, with Zhongji Xuchuang rising over 5%, approaching previous highs [1]. - New Yisheng and Changxin Bochuang also saw gains, with the optical module CPO concept stocks accounting for over 54% of the market [1]. - The Huaxia AI ETF (159381) has strongly surpassed the 60-day moving average, aiming for a fourth consecutive increase [1]. - The 5G communication ETF (515050) has also risen above the 5-day moving average [1]. Group 2: Nvidia's Earnings Report - Nvidia's Q3 FY2026 earnings report, released on November 19, showed revenue of $57.01 billion, exceeding market expectations of approximately $55 billion, marking a historical high [1]. - The revenue increased by 22% quarter-over-quarter and 62% year-over-year [1]. - Data center revenue for the third quarter reached $51.2 billion, reflecting a 66% year-over-year growth [1]. - Nvidia's guidance for Q4 revenue is projected to be $65 billion, with a fluctuation range of 2%, translating to $63.7 billion to $66.3 billion, while the analyst consensus is $61.98 billion [1]. Group 3: Market Sentiment - Analysts believe Nvidia's strong performance confirms the resilience of AI infrastructure demand, significantly boosting bullish sentiment in technology stocks and reversing previous sell-offs due to valuation concerns [1]. - Following the earnings report, Nvidia's stock price rose over 5% in after-hours trading [1].

Group 1 - Nvidia reported impressive Q3 results for FY2025, with revenue reaching $57.01 billion, significantly exceeding market expectations of $54.92 billion, and maintaining a high year-over-year growth rate [1] - The company's data center revenue surpassed $50 billion for the first time, reaching $51.2 billion, which is a 66% year-over-year increase, and also above analyst estimates of $49.09 billion [1] - Nvidia's forecast for the current quarter anticipates revenue growth to $65 billion, well above the market expectation of $61.66 billion, indicating strong demand for AI computing power [1] Group 2 - The AI trend is clear, with significant capital expenditure growth from domestic and international cloud vendors, leading to strong inflows into the AI-focused ETF (159363) which has over 54% exposure to optical modules [2] - The demand for 800G optical modules is expected to continue growing rapidly, with significant increases projected for 1.6T and 3.2T module shipments, highlighting the ongoing upgrades in GPU and ASIC technology [4] - The first AI-focused ETF on the ChiNext market is recommended for investment, with over 70% of its portfolio allocated to computing power and over 20% to AI applications, effectively capturing the AI theme market [4]

Core Insights - Nvidia's recent earnings report exceeded expectations, leading to a significant rise in related stocks within its supply chain, including optical module companies [1][3] - Nvidia's revenue for Q3 reached $57.01 billion, surpassing market expectations of $54.92 billion, with a year-over-year growth rate maintained at a high level [2][3] - The company anticipates further revenue growth to $65 billion in the current quarter, significantly above the market forecast of $61.66 billion, indicating strong demand for AI computing power [2][3] Company Performance - Nvidia's data center revenue surpassed $50 billion for the first time, reaching $51.2 billion, which exceeded analyst estimates of $49.09 billion and represented a year-over-year increase of 66% [3] - The "compute" revenue, a critical segment, amounted to $43 billion, while revenue from networking products was $8.2 billion [3] Market Reaction - Following Nvidia's earnings report, stocks of companies in the optical module sector, such as Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng, saw increases of over 5% and 3%, respectively [1] - The AI-focused ETF (159363) that includes over 54% optical module content experienced a rise of over 2%, marking its fourth consecutive day of gains with significant trading volume exceeding 250 million yuan [1][3] Investment Opportunities - Analysts suggest that the strong performance of Nvidia validates the bullish outlook for computing power and AI hardware, indicating potential for a new market rally in related sectors [3] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on optical modules and AI applications, recommending the AI ETF and its associated funds for capturing market trends [3]

全球AI风向标英伟达再次交出耀眼成绩单，其2025财年第三季度营收、利润以及对下一季度的展望， 均显著高于市场预期。受此利好刺激，其股价昨夜大涨近3%。11月20日，深度参与海外算力产业链、 重仓光模块的创业板人工智能ETF（159363）早盘大幅高开，现大涨超2%。 数据显示，光模块CPO含量超54%的创业板人工智能ETF（159363）日线三连阳，资金重回强劲净流入 态势，近两日大举吸金超2.1亿元。当前AI趋势明确，人工智能军备竞赛持续，国内外云厂商资本开支 高增，投资者可持续关注光模块含量超54%的创业板人工智能ETF（159363）。全市场首只创业板人工 智能ETF（159363）及场外联接（023407），标的指数重点布局光模块龙头"易中天"，光模块含量超 54%。从赛道分布看，逾七成仓位布局算力，超两成仓位布局AI应用，能够高效捕捉AI主题行情。 英伟达财报持续验证算力景气度，A股以光模块为核心的算力硬件或迎重磅催化。此前，兴业证券表 示，对于明年高景气且景气加速AI硬件板块，也是海外映射下近期调整幅度较大的方向，若后续英伟 达财报、海外降息预期等因素提供催化，重视潜在估值修复机会，包括海外算力 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant stock transfer of Cambridge Technology from Guotai Junan (Hong Kong) to Morgan Stanley Hong Kong Securities, valued at HKD 433 million, representing 6.5% of the total shares [1] - Cambridge Technology reported its Q3 2025 results on October 26, showing a total revenue of approximately CNY 3.36 billion, an increase of 21.57% year-on-year [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters was approximately CNY 259 million, reflecting a substantial year-on-year growth of 70.88% [1] Group 2 - The company's performance is driven by high-quality growth, primarily from its two main businesses: high-speed optical modules and telecom broadband access [1]