| 玻璃纯碱期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年10月13日 | | | | 将诗语 | Z0017002 | | 玻璃相关价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 张跃 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 华北报价 | 1230 | 1240 | -10 | -0.81% | | | 华东报价 | 1340 | 1340 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 华中报价 | 1220 | 1220 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 华南报价 | 1310 | 1310 | 0 | 0.00% | TC/HP | | 玻璃2505 | 1334 | 1338 | -4 | -0.30% | | | 玻璃2509 | 1407 | 1407 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 05 # 7 | -104 | -d8 | -6 | -6.12% | | | 纯碱相关价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品和 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | ...

Group 1: Autonomous Driving and Low Altitude Economy - The fourth Dubai World Autonomous Driving Congress highlighted that 25% of transportation in Dubai is expected to be automated by 2030, with a further increase to 36% by 2040 [2] - Chinese companies, including Pony.ai, WeRide, and Loong Air, are leading the autonomous driving sector in Dubai, providing testing autonomous taxis for the autonomous driving zone [2] - The DroneTech Dubai 2025 event showcased over 150 exhibitors from more than 40 countries, with the MENA region's low-altitude economy projected to grow to $22-26 billion by 2030, reflecting a compound annual growth rate exceeding 35% [2] Group 2: Aviation and Manufacturing Developments - COMAC (China Commercial Aircraft Corporation) will make its debut at the Dubai Airshow in November, indicating the importance of the Gulf region as a growth market for aircraft manufacturers [3] - China South Glass Group plans to invest 300 million dirhams to establish its first overseas smart manufacturing plant in Abu Dhabi, focusing on energy-efficient glass production with an expected annual output exceeding 5 million square meters [3] Group 3: Economic Policies and Business Growth - Dubai introduced the "Free Zone Mainland Operating Permit," allowing free zone companies to operate in the mainland, which is expected to boost cross-jurisdiction business growth by approximately 20% [4] - As of September 30, 2025, the UAE's corporate tax registration exceeded 640,000, facilitated by the EmaraTax digital platform, enhancing tax compliance and regulatory efficiency [4] Group 4: Real Estate Market Performance - Dubai's real estate market reached a historic high in Q3 2025, with total sales nearing 500 billion dirhams, marking a 32.3% year-on-year increase in transaction value [5] - Ajman’s real estate sales surged by 53% in September 2025, reaching 2.97 billion dirhams (approximately $809 million), indicating strong market growth [5] Group 5: Electric Vehicle Infrastructure - Dubai's electricity and water authority, DEWA, is collaborating with several companies to establish a comprehensive electric vehicle charging network, planning to build over 1,500 green charging stations [6] Group 6: Qatar's Economic Indicators - Qatar's Hamad, Ruwais, and Doha ports reported a 12% increase in transshipment volume in September, with a total of 1.11 million TEUs processed from January to September [7] - Qatar's foreign exchange reserves grew by 3.08% year-on-year in September 2025, reaching 261.05 billion riyals, with official international reserves increasing by 3.73% [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soda ash market is currently in a pattern of weak supply and demand. High inventory and weak demand continue to suppress the market. Although the supply side has slightly contracted, it has failed to effectively reverse the situation of loose supply and demand. The market is expected to lack upward momentum, and the market will continue to show a weak and volatile trend. Attention should be paid to downstream restocking efforts and inventory reduction [9][40]. - Operational suggestions include shorting on rallies in the single - side trading, conducting an arbitrage strategy of going long on glass and shorting on soda ash, and considering a bear spread option combination [40]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Soda Ash Supply and Demand Situation (1) Production and Capacity Analysis - As of October 9, 2025, domestic soda ash production was 770,800 tons, a decrease of 6,600 tons or 0.85% from the previous week. Light soda ash production was 342,100 tons, a decrease of 3,800 tons, and heavy soda ash production was 428,700 tons, a decrease of 2,800 tons [7][10]. - The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 88.41%, a decrease of 0.76 percentage points from the previous week. Among them, the ammonia - soda process capacity utilization rate was 91.09% (unchanged), the co - production process capacity utilization rate was 79.34%, a decrease of 1.56 percentage points, and the overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual capacity of over one million tons was 90.16%, a decrease of 1.58 percentage points [12]. (2) Soda Ash Inventory Analysis - As of October 9, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.6598 million tons, an increase of 59,900 tons or 3.74% from before the holiday (September 29). Light soda ash inventory was 739,100 tons, an increase of 42,400 tons, and heavy soda ash inventory was 920,700 tons, an increase of 17,500 tons [8][15]. (3) Shipment Situation Analysis - On October 9, the weekly shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 710,900 tons, a decrease of 14.25% from the previous week. The overall shipment rate was 92.23%, a decrease of 14.41 percentage points [18]. (4) Profit Analysis - As of October 9, 2025, the theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process for soda ash was - 29.25 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The cost of raw salt and coke was stable, and the soda ash price remained stable, so the profit of the ammonia - soda process fluctuated at a low level [21]. - As of September 25, 2025, the theoretical profit (double - ton) of the co - production process for soda ash was - 77.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton from the previous week. The cost increased, while the soda ash price was stable, so the double - ton profit of the co - production process fluctuated downward [24]. 2. Downstream Industry Situation (1) Float Glass Industry Production Increased Month - on - Month - As of October 9, 2025, the daily production of national float glass was 161,300 tons, the same as on the 3rd. The weekly production of national float glass was 1.1289 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.11% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.98% [28]. (2) Float Glass Industry Inventory Decreased - As of October 9, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 62.824 million weight boxes, an increase of 3.469 million weight boxes or 5.85% from the previous week, and a year - on - year increase of 6.76%. The inventory days were 26.7 days, an increase of 1.3 days from the previous period [29]. 3. Spot Market Situation - Not elaborated in detail in the report, only the names of relevant price trend charts are provided, including domestic light soda ash price trend, domestic heavy soda ash price trend, and soda ash basis trend [34][36][39]. 4. Comprehensive Analysis - The soda ash market last week showed a pattern of weak supply and demand. The supply side contracted slightly, but weak demand was the core contradiction. After the National Day holiday, enterprise inventory increased significantly, especially the inventory pressure of light soda ash increased, indicating weak downstream purchasing enthusiasm. - The demand side was weak, with downstream enterprises mainly restocking as needed. New orders were average, resulting in a significant decline in the shipment volume and shipment rate of soda ash enterprises this week. The industry's profit situation was still poor, and enterprises lacked the motivation to raise prices. - In the short term, high inventory and weak demand will continue to suppress the market. The market is expected to lack upward momentum and will continue to show a weak and volatile trend. Attention should be paid to downstream restocking efforts and inventory reduction [40].

纯碱现货：重碱河北交割库现货报价在1140左右，送到沙河1160左右 纯碱产业：工厂库存累积，交割库小累，整体累库 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 河北鑫利4.8mm（折5mm） 2022 2023 2024 2025 (600) (400) (200) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 华北玻璃生产利润（气） 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 1190 1241 1190 1150 1099 1103 1207 1334 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 沙河德金 沙河安全 沙河低价 湖北低价 10合约 11合约 01合约 05合约 玻璃价格结构 今日(10/10） 昨日(10/9） 一周前(9/30） 一月前(9/10） (500) 0 500 1,000 1,500 华南玻璃利润（气） 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 玻璃：河北低价 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the building materials industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has emphasized deepening reforms in the construction industry, focusing on industrialization, digitalization, and greening as development paths. This aims to transition the construction industry from a traditional extensive model to a refined and intelligent one, with key measures including the promotion of prefabricated buildings and the application of construction robots. The ultimate goal is to achieve high-quality development and enhance the quality, efficiency, and sustainability of "Chinese construction" [1] - The report highlights the long-term investment value of the building materials sector, particularly in green building materials and intelligent construction, which are expected to open new growth spaces due to the profound changes driven by the "three transformations" [1] - Recommended stocks in the consumer building materials sector include: Sankeshu (channel penetration, retail expansion), Dongfang Yuhong (waterproof leader, optimized operational structure), Weixing New Materials (high-quality operations, high retail business proportion), and Jianlang Hardware. Beneficiary stocks include: Beixin Building Materials (gypsum board leader, diversified expansion in coatings and waterproof sectors) [1] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The building materials index increased by 2.66% from October 6 to October 10, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.18 percentage points. Over the past three months, the CSI 300 index rose by 14.91%, while the building materials index increased by 14.73%, indicating a slight underperformance of 0.18 percentage points. In the past year, the CSI 300 index rose by 16.55%, and the building materials index increased by 21.26%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.71 percentage points [2][11] Cement Sector - As of October 10, 2025, the average price of P.O42.5 bulk cement nationwide was 287.21 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.26% month-on-month. The price trends varied by region, with increases in Northeast (+0.60%) and Central China (+1.32%), while declines were noted in North China (-1.09%) and East China (-1.57%) [22][25] - The clinker inventory ratio was stable at 67.40% [23] - The report tracks the valuation of listed companies in the cement sector, indicating a need for monitoring [72] Glass Sector - The average spot price of float glass as of October 10, 2025, was 1301.65 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.72%. However, the futures price decreased by 2.86% [76][77] - National float glass inventory increased by 696 million weight boxes, a rise of 13.71% [78][79] Fiberglass Sector - The market price for non-alkali 2400tex direct yarn ranged from 3400 to 4000 yuan/ton, with variations depending on the manufacturer [4] Consumer Building Materials - As of October 10, 2025, the price of crude oil was 65.05 USD/barrel, down 3.59% week-on-week. The price of asphalt remained stable at 4570 yuan/ton, while acrylic acid and titanium dioxide prices showed slight declines [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Glass: Short - term outlook is weakly oscillating, and medium - term is an oscillating market. The short - term pressure comes from the unclear implementation of anti - deflation and anti - involution policies and the weak real estate market. However, the undetermined anti - deflation and anti - involution policies prevent excessive bearishness. The manufacturer's inventory is not at a high level, so the spot price decline may be slow, and the basis is no longer weak [2]. -纯碱: The trend is weakly downward. The long - standing issues of high production and high inventory are worsening. Either significant production cuts in soda ash or continuous improvement in the glass market to drive positive feedback are needed. If the glass industry does not continue to improve and no substantial anti - involution measures are implemented for soda ash, the market will be oscillating or the price will be weak [4]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Glass Supply - As of October 9, 2025, the daily output of national float glass was 161,300 tons, unchanged from the 3rd. The weekly output from October 3 - 9, 2025 was 1.1289 million tons, a 0.11% increase from the previous week and a 0.98% decrease year - on - year. The short - term production reduction space is limited, and the production capacity is expected to change little in the fourth quarter. The current in - production capacity is about 161,000 tons per day, and the peak production capacity in 2021 was 178,000 tons per day [2][16]. - In 2025, the total daily melting volume of cold - repaired production lines was 11,680 tons per day; the total daily melting volume of ignited production lines was 13,210 tons per day; the total potential daily melting volume of new ignited production lines was 14,790 tons per day; the total potential daily melting volume of old production line restarts was 10,730 tons; and the total potential daily melting volume of cold - repaired production lines was 8,100 tons per day [9][10][11]. Demand - As of September 30, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 11.0 days, a 4.9% increase from the previous period and a 19.0% decrease year - on - year. The deep - processing orders are mainly concentrated in engineering orders, with a scheduling period of 15 - 30 days and some up to 60 days. The deep - processing price has a plan to increase after the festival, but the market is cautious about the price increase, and the actual price exploration needs further observation. The increase in the raw glass price has also made some deep - processing enterprises more cautious in accepting orders [2]. Inventory - As of October 9, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 62.824 million heavy boxes, a 3.469 million heavy - box increase from the previous period, a 5.85% increase from the previous period and a 6.76% increase year - on - year. The inventory days were 26.7 days, 1.3 days more than the previous period. During the National Day, due to downstream holidays and rainfall, the inventory in the North China region generally increased. The East China market had inventory accumulation, and the Central China market's inventory increased compared to the end of September. The South China market's inventory first decreased and then increased [2]. Price and Profit - The price in the Shahe area is around 1,210 - 1,270 yuan per ton; in the Hubei area of Central China, it is around 1,190 - 1,240 yuan per ton; and in some large factories in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang areas of East China, it is around 1,340 - 1,400 yuan per ton. Recently, the spot price has changed little, the basis and the spread between different contract months have strengthened. The profit of using petroleum coke as fuel is about 61 yuan per ton, the profit of using natural gas is - 151 yuan per ton, and the profit of using coal is 95 yuan per ton [23][25][32]. Photovoltaic Glass - Price and Profit: The overall domestic photovoltaic glass market has good transactions, and the price is oscillating upwards. The mainstream order price of 2.0mm coated panels is around 13 yuan per square meter, and the 3.2mm coated mainstream order price is around 20 yuan per square meter, both remaining flat compared to the previous period [47][49]. - Capacity and Inventory: The capacity has changed little recently, the trading has improved, and the inventory has declined. The number of national photovoltaic glass in - production production lines is 408, with a total daily melting volume of 89,290 tons per day, unchanged from the previous week and a 14.28% decrease year - on - year. The sample inventory days are about 14.65 days, a 2.50% decrease from the previous period [51][52][60]. Soda Ash Supply and Maintenance - The domestic soda ash production was 770,800 tons, a 6,600 - ton decrease from the previous week (September 26 - October 2, 2025), a 0.85% decline. The production of light soda ash was 342,100 tons, a 38,000 - ton decrease from the previous week, and the production of heavy soda ash was 428,700 tons, a 28,000 - ton decrease from the previous week. Some maintenance devices have resumed production, and the production has rebounded. The current weekly production of heavy soda ash is around 430,000 tons per week [3][63][68]. - The capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 88.4%, down from 89.12% last week. There are still pressures from new production capacity in the later stage [65]. Inventory - As of October 9, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was about 1.66 million tons. The inventory of light soda ash was 739,100 tons, a 42,400 - ton increase from the previous period, and the inventory of heavy soda ash was 920,700 tons, a 17,500 - ton increase from the previous period [71][73]. Price and Profit - The nominal prices in the Shahe and Hubei areas are around 1,210 - 1,400 yuan per ton. The market price has changed little. The basis and the spread between different contract months show that the near - term contracts are under pressure due to high production and high inventory. The profit of the joint - alkali method in East China (excluding Shandong) is - 77 yuan per ton, and the profit of the ammonia - alkali method in North China is - 37 yuan per ton [81][85][88].

天眼查App显示，近日，蚌埠久玻玻璃有限公司成立，法定代表人为罗彦龙，注册资本10万人民币，经 营范围为一般项目：日用玻璃制品制造；日用玻璃制品销售；塑料制品销售；塑料制品制造；五金产品 零售；模具销售；塑料包装箱及容器制造；包装材料及制品销售；日用百货销售；日用品销售；互联网 销售（除销售需要许可的商品）；日用陶瓷制品销售；图文设计制作；技术服务、技术开发、技术咨 询、技术交流、技术转让、技术推广（除许可业务外，可自主依法经营法律法规非禁止或限制的项 目）。 ...

Core Insights - A new company, Tongling Xinbo Glass Co., Ltd., has been established with a registered capital of 2 million RMB [1] - The company is involved in a wide range of business activities, including the sale of daily glass products, functional glass, optical materials, and various construction materials [1] Company Overview - The legal representative of the company is He Siwen [1] - The registered capital is 2 million RMB [1] Business Scope - The company’s operations include the sale of daily glass products, functional glass, new optical materials, and technical glass products [1] - It also engages in the sale of chemical products (excluding licensed chemical products), lightweight building materials, and various construction and decorative materials [1] - Additional activities include the wholesale of hardware products, sales of doors and windows, electrical wires and cables, and mechanical and electrical equipment [1] - The company is involved in the sale of insulation and soundproofing materials, metal materials, agricultural products, textiles, rubber products, coal and its products, refractory materials, and information consulting services [1] - The company provides ordinary goods warehousing services (excluding hazardous chemicals) and is authorized to conduct road cargo transportation (excluding hazardous goods) upon approval from relevant authorities [1]

天眼查App显示，近日，蚌埠龙河玻璃有限公司成立，法定代表人为罗彦龙，注册资本10万人民币，经 营范围为一般项目：日用玻璃制品制造；日用玻璃制品销售；五金产品零售；电子元器件零售；模具销 售；塑料包装箱及容器制造；塑料制品销售；包装材料及制品销售；日用百货销售；互联网销售（除销 售需要许可的商品）；日用陶瓷制品销售；图文设计制作；日用品销售；技术服务、技术开发、技术咨 询、技术交流、技术转让、技术推广（除许可业务外，可自主依法经营法律法规非禁止或限制的项 目）。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - **Core Contradictions**: There are policy expectations (such as coal - to - gas conversion in Shahe and environmental protection) and cost increase expectations for the far - month, which cannot be falsified for now. The near - term reality is average, with mediocre production and sales, and the mid - stream's inventory reduction ability during the peak season needs to be observed [2]. - **Lido Interpretation**: Cost still has an upward expectation, affecting far - month pricing. Policy expectations cannot be completely ruled out, and supply - side stories may be repeatedly traded [2]. - **Risks Interpretation**: High inventories in the upper and middle reaches of glass and soda ash, doubts about downstream承接力, and uncertainty about peak - season performance. There is still an expectation of glass production line ignition [2]. - **Summary of Glass Situation**: On the fundamental side, the upper and middle - stream inventories of glass are at a high level, and weak real - world demand limits price increases. There are still differences in whether there will be an unexpected reduction in supply in the fourth quarter. The near - term supply - strong and demand - weak pattern remains unchanged, with high mid - stream inventories in Shahe and Hubei and weak phased restocking ability. In terms of valuation, there are still profits for coal - gas and petroleum - coke production lines, and the willingness to ignite may increase if prices rise [4]. - **Summary of Soda Ash Situation**: The second phase of Yuanxing has been ignited and entered the commissioning stage, and the long - term supply pressure of soda ash continues. The downstream of light and heavy soda ash mainly conducts rigid restocking, and the upper - stream alkali plants are reducing inventories at a high level, with some relief of plant pressure. The expectation of high - level long - term supply of soda ash remains unchanged, and normal maintenance continues. The fundamentals of photovoltaic glass have further improved, and the inventory of photovoltaic glass products has been reduced to a relatively low level. The rigid demand for soda ash is stable, with no expectation of weakening, and the heavy - soda balance remains in surplus. However, soda ash exports in August exceeded 200,000 tons, better than expected, which alleviated domestic pressure to some extent. High overall inventories in the upper and middle reaches limit soda ash prices, and the supply - strong and demand - weak pattern remains unchanged [4]. 3. Content Summarized by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast - **Glass**: The monthly price range is predicted to be 1000 - 1400 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 31.16% and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 81.8% [1]. - **Soda Ash**: The monthly price range is predicted to be 1100 - 1500 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 22.56% and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 26.4% [1]. 3.2 Hedging Strategies - **Glass Inventory Management**: For high - level finished - product inventory and concerns about price drops, short glass futures (FG2601) at a 50% ratio when the price is 1400 yuan/ton, and sell call options (FG601C1300) at a 50% ratio when the price is 40 - 50 yuan to lock in profits and reduce costs [1]. - **Glass Procurement Management**: For low - level procurement inventory and the need to purchase according to orders, buy glass futures (FG2601) at a 50% ratio when the price is 1100 - 1150 yuan/ton, and sell put options (FG601P1100) at a 50% ratio when the price is 50 - 60 yuan to lock in procurement costs [1]. - **Soda Ash Inventory Management**: For high - level finished - product inventory and concerns about price drops, short soda ash futures (SA2601) at a 50% ratio when the price is 1550 - 1600 yuan/ton, and sell call options (SA601C1400) at a 50% ratio when the price is 50 - 60 yuan to lock in profits and reduce costs [1]. - **Soda Ash Procurement Management**: For low - level procurement inventory and the need to purchase according to orders, buy soda ash futures (SA2601) at a 50% ratio when the price is 1200 - 1250 yuan/ton, and sell put options (SA601P1200) at a 50% ratio when the price is 40 - 50 yuan to lock in procurement costs [1]. 3.3 Price and Spread Data - **Glass Futures Price**: On October 10, 2025, the prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1334, 1407, and 1207 yuan/ton respectively, with daily changes of - 4, 0, and - 11 yuan/ton and daily change rates of - 0.3%, 0%, and - 0.9% respectively [5]. - **Soda Ash Futures Price**: On October 10, 2025, the prices of soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1332, 1406, and 1240 yuan/ton respectively, with daily changes of - 12, - 3, and - 10 yuan/ton and daily change rates of - 0.89%, - 0.21%, and - 0.8% respectively [7]. - **Glass Spot Price**: On October 10, 2025, the average price of glass in Shahe was 1235 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 6.8 yuan/ton. Regional prices in North China, Northwest China, and Shandong increased slightly [6]. - **Soda Ash Spot Price**: On October 10, 2025, the prices of heavy and light soda ash in various regions remained mostly stable, with a decrease of 10 yuan/ton in the heavy - soda price in Shahe [9].