Core Viewpoint - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected at 13.297 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 23.19%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 494 million, down 6.33% year-on-year, primarily due to losses in the lithium iron phosphate business. The company maintains a "buy" rating based on its competitive advantages in differentiated products and expected growth in new technologies [1][3]. Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 3.414 billion, a year-on-year decline of 18.48%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 127 million, showing a year-on-year increase of 10.01% [2]. - For Q1 2025, revenue is expected to be 2.977 billion, down 9.77% year-on-year, with a net profit of 117 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.84% due to strong performance in cobalt lithium sales, which rose by 46.55% [2]. Market Position and Product Performance - The company has increased its market share in ternary and cobalt lithium materials, with cobalt lithium sales reaching 46,200 tons in 2024, up 33.52% year-on-year, significantly outpacing the market growth rate of 18.8% [2]. - Ternary material sales were 52,400 tons, up 40.03% year-on-year, while the industry growth was only 3.6%, attributed to the company's competitive advantages in high-voltage and high-power products [2]. Future Outlook - The company expects to reduce losses in lithium iron phosphate as production efficiency and capacity utilization improve in 2025. New technologies such as the NL new structure and solid-state battery materials are anticipated to contribute to revenue growth [3]. - The company has revised down its shipment and profitability assumptions for lithium iron phosphate but expects improvements in 2027 due to economies of scale. Projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 667 million, 809 million, and 954 million, respectively [3]. Valuation - The company maintains a "buy" rating with a revised target price of 53.72, based on a 34 times PE for 2025, down from a previous 29 times PE for 2024, reflecting expected growth in ternary and cobalt lithium shipments and contributions from new technologies [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 13.3 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year decline of 23.19%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 494 million RMB, down 6.33% year-on-year [1] - The company has a differentiated competitive advantage, with expected sales growth of ternary materials and cobalt acid lithium higher than the industry average [1][3] - New technologies such as NL new structure and solid-state battery materials are anticipated to contribute to future growth [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 34.14 billion RMB, a year-on-year decline of 18.48%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.27 billion RMB, up 10.01% year-on-year [2] - For Q1 2025, revenue is projected at 29.77 billion RMB, a decrease of 9.77% quarter-on-quarter, with net profit of 1.17 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.84% [2] Market Position - In 2024, the company sold 46,200 tons of cobalt acid lithium, a year-on-year increase of 33.52%, significantly outperforming the market growth rate of 18.8% [3] - Ternary material sales reached 52,400 tons, up 40.03% year-on-year, while the industry average growth was only 3.6% [3] Technology and Innovation - The company has developed NL new structure cathode materials that significantly outperform traditional cobalt acid lithium and ternary materials in energy density and charge-discharge rates [4] - The company is also advancing in solid-state battery technology, achieving ton-level production of solid electrolytes and stable product performance [4] Profitability Forecast - The company has revised down its shipment and profitability assumptions for phosphate lithium materials for 2025-2026, but expects improvements in 2027 due to scale effects [5] - Projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 666.88 million RMB, 809.48 million RMB, and 953.81 million RMB respectively [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of 48.05 RMB [6][9]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.908 billion RMB in Q1 2025, showing a year-on-year increase of 25.80% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 7.73%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 111 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.22% and a significant quarter-on-quarter increase of 1365.53% [1]. - The company expects a recovery in overseas ternary orders in 2025, with a projected increase in ternary shipments by 40%-50% due to improved profitability from international clients and rising metal prices [3]. - The company is actively developing sodium battery technology and anticipates a significant increase in lithium iron phosphate (LFP) shipments, with production capacity expected to reach 80,000 tons by mid-2025, leading to a turnaround in profitability for LFP products [4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the ternary cathode shipment volume was estimated at 10,000 tons, remaining stable quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit per ton exceeding 10,000 RMB. The LFP shipment volume was estimated at 24,000 tons, experiencing a decline due to seasonal factors, with net profit per ton remaining stable [2]. - The company forecasts a net profit of 784.27 million RMB in 2025, with a projected growth in net profit for 2026 and 2027 [8]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on emerging technologies, including a 60%-70% increase in lithium acid output in the small digital market and initial shipments in the sodium battery market for electric two-wheelers in 2025 [5]. - The company is also advancing solid-state battery technology, which is currently in the pilot testing phase [5]. Valuation Metrics - The report estimates the company's net profit for 2025-2027 at 784.27 million RMB, 920.14 million RMB, and 1.018 billion RMB respectively, with a target PE ratio of 31 times for 2025 [6][8].

Core Viewpoint - Wanrun New Energy has been deeply engaged in the research and development of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) cathodes for over a decade, continuously upgrading its products and achieving significant market share in the LFP sector [1][2]. Group 1: Company Overview - Wanrun New Energy is a listed company on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, recognized as a national high-tech enterprise and a "little giant" enterprise specializing in niche markets [1]. - The company began R&D and industrialization of LFP cathodes in 2011 and has developed upstream raw materials such as iron phosphate [1]. - In 2023, the company achieved small-batch shipments of its fourth-generation high-pressure LFP and is currently validating its fifth-generation high-pressure products with customers [1]. Group 2: Market Position and Growth - The shipment volume of LFP cathode materials has seen rapid growth, with China's LFP shipments increasing from 66,000 tons in 2018 to 1.638 million tons in 2023, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 43.4% [1]. - Wanrun New Energy maintains a strong market position, with a market share of 10% in 2023, ranking third after Hunan Yueneng (32%) and Deyang Nano [1]. - Global demand for LFP cathodes is projected to reach 2.3 million tons in 2024 and 3.03 million tons in 2025, with year-on-year growth rates of 46% and 32%, respectively [1]. Group 3: Product Quality and Innovation - The company continuously optimizes product design and process parameters, resulting in superior performance indicators for its LFP and iron phosphate products [2]. - Key performance metrics such as compact density, discharge capacity, and cycle performance of Wanrun's LFP products exceed industry averages, indicating high product quality [2]. - The iron-to-phosphorus ratio in the company's iron phosphate products is maintained below 1, preventing the formation of magnetic substances that could affect battery safety [2]. Group 4: Upstream Integration and Financial Projections - Wanrun New Energy's upstream layout includes iron phosphate, phosphoric acid, phosphate salts, and phosphate rock, ensuring self-sufficiency in LFP production [3]. - The company has entered into a joint venture with the government of Baokang County to establish a company focused on various phosphate products, enhancing its integrated supply chain [3]. - Financial forecasts estimate revenues of 7.52 billion, 14.09 billion, and 17.17 billion yuan for 2024-2026, with net profits projected at -860 million, 450 million, and 710 million yuan, respectively [3].

二、前10名无限售条件股东持股情况 前十大流通股东累计持有： 34719.61万股，累计占流通股比： 42.51%，较上期变化： -611.97万股。 | 报告期指标 | 2024年年报 | 2023年年报 | 本年比上年增减(%) | 2022年年报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 基本每股收益（元） | -0.5700 | 2.6800 | -121.27 | 4.4800 | | 每股净资产（元） | 25.14 | 27.49 | -8.55 | 19.81 | | 每股公积金(元) | 15.03 | 15.41 | -2.47 | 8.61 | | 每股未分配利润(元) | 9.13 | 11.19 | -18.41 | 10.09 | | 每股经营现金流(元) | - | - | - | - | | 营业收入(亿元) | 101.64 | 120.42 | -15.6 | 125.91 | | 净利润(亿元) | -5.56 | 25.27 | -122 | 40 | | 净资产收益率(%) | -2.17 | 13.31 | -116.3 | 25.39 ...

Core Viewpoint - The demand for ternary materials in the market continues to diverge, with domestic high-nickel high-voltage orders persisting, while overall overseas demand remains weak [2][4]. Group 1: Production and Market Share - In Q1 2025, China's ternary material production was 140,000 tons, a year-on-year decline of 10.3%, while global production was 212,000 tons, down 9.3%. China's global market share increased from 64.4% in 2024 to 66.1% [2]. - The proportion of 6-series ternary materials in China has further increased, exceeding 30%, while the share of mid-low nickel materials continues to shrink [4]. Group 2: Price Fluctuations and Cost Impact - The cobalt price experienced significant volatility, with prices rising over 80% in about two weeks due to various policy factors, including the suspension of cobalt exports from the Democratic Republic of Congo and the establishment of a strategic alliance with Indonesia. This has notably impacted the cost of ternary materials, especially mid-low nickel types [8]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Competition - Currently, orders for ternary materials are limited outside of high-nickel high-voltage products, with most changes being adjustments in order distribution among suppliers. In Q1 2025, Nantong Ruixiang emerged as a top player due to strong product shipments, while companies like Rongbai Technology, Tianjin Bamo, and Guangdong Bangpu benefited from overseas high-nickel demand [12]. - The ongoing U.S. tariff war is expected to suppress overseas demand for new energy vehicles in the short term, leading to a downward adjustment in total market expectations. However, domestic orders remain relatively stable, indicating a potential widening gap in demand across different supply chains [14].

Core Viewpoint - The composite current collector industry is facing challenges in industrialization primarily due to yield issues, which are fundamentally linked to cost concerns [6]. Group 1: Industry Development - The composite current collector industry is experiencing ongoing project launches, with significant investments such as nearly 10 billion yuan projects in Inner Mongolia and a 1 billion yuan project in Jiangmen [2]. - Financing activities in the composite current collector sector are also active, with companies like Anmate securing several hundred million yuan in Series B funding and Nali New Materials obtaining nearly 1 billion yuan in Series A+ funding [3]. - By 2025, the composite current collector is expected to enter an initial stage of mass production, with companies like U&S ENERGY planning to purchase 2 million square meters of composite aluminum foil and 1 million square meters of composite copper foil [4]. Group 2: Material Characteristics - Composite current collectors are seen as revolutionary materials in the foil sector, offering safety, weight reduction, and demetallization properties, making them excellent alternatives to traditional copper foils [5]. - Despite recent price increases in raw materials, the pressure for cost reduction remains, and the competitive landscape is intense, limiting the cost advantages of composite current collectors [6]. Group 3: Technical Challenges - The primary bottleneck for large-scale use of composite current collectors is the yield issue, which is closely tied to production costs [6]. - Current production methods involve high costs for vacuum coating equipment, which can range from hundreds of thousands to millions of yuan, making it difficult to recover depreciation costs without significant production efficiency [6]. - The industry is actively working on improving production yields and speeds, as well as enhancing production equipment and processes to achieve greater economies of scale [7]. Group 4: Equipment and Innovation - Companies like North Huachuang are advancing in the field of PVD equipment, focusing on breakthroughs in key equipment for the composite current collector industry [8]. - The eMeridian series of PVD equipment has been launched to meet the preparation needs for high-performance composite copper and aluminum foils, significantly improving production capacity and yield [11]. Group 5: Policy Support and Market Demand - The Chinese government is increasing support for the composite current collector industry, with policies encouraging technological advancements and large-scale applications [12]. - Market demand for composite current collectors is influenced by their cost-effectiveness compared to traditional copper foils, particularly in the context of the competitive landscape [13]. - The demand from mid-to-low-end electric vehicles for composite current collectors is limited, primarily due to the pricing of lithium iron phosphate battery cells [14]. Group 6: Performance and Future Applications - The conductivity of composite current collectors, which affects fast charging performance, is generally lower than that of traditional copper foils, posing a limitation for their use in fast-charging batteries [15]. - However, battery manufacturers are primarily focused on the safety benefits provided by composite current collectors, with some clients achieving performance comparable to traditional technologies [15]. - As breakthroughs in cost and performance continue, composite current collectors are expected to find applications beyond lithium batteries, including humanoid robots, aerospace, and high-end digital fields [15].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, indicating challenges in the market while showing some signs of recovery in Q4 [2][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved an operating revenue of 15.088 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 33.41%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 296 million, down 49.06% [2]. - For Q4 2024, the operating revenue was 3.764 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 7.81% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 15.14%. However, the net profit for Q4 was 180 million, marking a turnaround from losses, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 69.17% [2][4]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 10.02%, an increase of 1.43 percentage points, while the net profit margin was 2.18%, a decrease of 0.59 percentage points [4]. Group 2: Market Position and Product Performance - The company maintained a high growth rate in shipment volume, with a total shipment of 120,000 tons in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of over 20%, and a global market share exceeding 12% [3]. - The company’s production of manganese iron lithium and sodium-ion batteries is entering a harvest period, with shipments of manganese iron lithium products growing over 100% year-on-year [6]. Group 3: Strategic Developments - The company invested approximately 175 million in strategic businesses, achieving a profit of 504 million in the ternary cathode business, with a net profit per ton of 420 yuan [5]. - The Korean factory achieved profitability for the first time, contributing to improved profitability and increased sales of high-nickel products [5]. - The company is set to start mass production and delivery of layered oxide cathode materials and polycation cathode materials in early 2025, with significant orders already secured [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 15.088 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 33.41%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 296 million yuan, down 49.06% year-on-year [1] - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 3.764 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.81%, but a net profit of 180 million yuan, marking a return to profitability [1][2] - The company continues to lead the global market for ternary cathode materials, with a shipment of 120,000 tons in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of over 20% and a global market share exceeding 12% [1][2] Financial Performance - The gross margin for 2024 was 10.02%, an increase of 1.43 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 2.18%, a decrease of 0.59 percentage points year-on-year [2] - In Q4 2024, the gross margin improved to 12.75%, with a net margin of 4.86%, reflecting a significant recovery [2] - The company’s profitability improved due to the first profitability of its Korean factory and increased sales of high-nickel products [2] Product Development and Market Position - The company is transitioning to a comprehensive cathode material supplier, with significant growth in manganese iron lithium and sodium battery cathodes expected [3] - The shipment of manganese iron lithium products grew over 100% year-on-year, maintaining the top market share [3] - The company has secured orders for 3,000 tons of layered oxide cathode materials and hundreds of tons of polycation cathode materials, with mass production expected to start in 2025 [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts a decline in revenue for 2025 and 2026, with net profit estimates of 816 million yuan, 1.004 billion yuan, and 1.224 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][8] - The company’s overseas capacity is considered rare, with expectations for overseas clients to enter a harvest period, enhancing the valuation attractiveness [3][8]