厦钨新能 (688778 CH) 钴酸锂销量亮眼，固态进展顺利 2025 年 8 月 21 日│中国内地 电力设备与新能源 证券研究报告 公司发布中报，25H1 收入 75.3 亿元，同比+18.0%，归母净利 3.1 亿元， 同比+27.8%，扣非净利 2.9 亿元，同比+32.2%，归母净利同比高增主要系 钴酸锂销量同比高增及钴涨价库存收益。公司凭借差异化竞争优势，三元材 料和钴酸锂出货量增速有望高于行业，NL 新结构和固态电池材料未来有望 贡献增量，维持"买入"评级。 25Q2 利润同环比高增，盈利能力环比提升 公司 25Q2 收入 45.57 亿元，同/环比+47.8%/+53.1%，归母净利 1.90 亿元， 同/环比+47.5%/+63.0%，扣非净利 1.79 亿元，同/环比+53.0%/+60.9%， 钴酸锂销量带动收入利润高增；毛利率/净利率达 10.26%/4.20%，环比 +0.67/+0.35pct，期间费用率达 4.63%，环比-0.41pct，其中销售/管理/研发 /财务费用率分别-0.03/-0.16/-0.13/-0.08pct，规模效应下盈利能力环比提升。 25H1 钴酸锂销 ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·电池 厦钨新能（688778） 2025 半年报点评：Q2 钴酸锂贡献利润增量， 三元盈利稳定 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 17,311 | 13,297 | 17,063 | 19,551 | 22,496 | | 同比（%） | (39.79) | (23.19) | 28.33 | 14.58 | 15.07 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 527.45 | 494.07 | 806.44 | 930.15 | 1,117.73 | | 同比（%） | (52.93) | (6.33) | 63.22 | 15.34 | 20.17 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 1.05 | 0.98 | 1.60 | 1.84 | 2.21 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 54.83 | 58.53 | 35.86 | 31.09 | 25.87 | [T ...

Battery Production - In August, C produced 63 GWh, a month-on-month increase of 15% and a year-on-year increase of 40% [1] - B produced 25.2 GWh in August, with a month-on-month increase of 10% and a year-on-year increase of 50% [1] - E's preliminary production in August was over 12 GWh, showing a month-on-month increase of 2% and a year-on-year increase of 60% [1] - Z's production in August was close to 11 GWh, with a month-on-month increase of 5% and a year-on-year increase of 50% [1] - G produced nearly 10 GWh in August, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 10% and a year-on-year increase of 65% [1] Material Production - For ternary materials, production in August was 0.8 million tons, remaining flat month-on-month but down 30% year-on-year due to lower-than-expected demand in the US [1] - Lithium iron phosphate (LiFePO4) production was 1.8 million tons in August, flat month-on-month and unchanged year-on-year [1] - Another LiFePO4 production line produced 2.5 million tons, with a month-on-month increase of 10% and a year-on-year increase of 10% [1] - Separator production reached over 400 million square meters, remaining flat month-on-month and up 24% year-on-year [1] - Another separator line produced nearly 1 billion square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 9% and a year-on-year increase of 50% [1] - Anode production was 2.7 million tons in August, showing a month-on-month increase of 6% and a year-on-year increase of 30% [1] - Copper foil production was 8,000 tons, flat month-on-month and up 23% year-on-year [1] - Another copper foil line produced over 12,000 tons, with a month-on-month increase of 2% and a year-on-year increase of 33% [1] - Aluminum foil production was over 18,000 tons, remaining flat month-on-month and up 40% year-on-year [1] Industry Trends - The main engine manufacturers are focusing on balancing performance and cost in battery cell procurement [3] - BYD is expanding its presence in Southeast Asia [5] - CATL is experiencing growth in the energy storage market that exceeds that of the power market [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company's H1 2025 performance slightly exceeded market expectations, with total revenue of 7.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 310 million yuan, up 28% [7] - The sales volume of lithium cobalt oxide saw significant growth, benefiting from rising cobalt prices, with a projected sales volume of over 60,000 tons for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of over 30% [7] - The company is positioned well in the solid-state battery market with its lithium sulfide product, leveraging advanced technology and integrated production processes [7] Financial Summary - The company's total revenue is projected to reach 17.06 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 28.33% [8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 806.44 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth of 63.22% compared to the previous year [8] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 1.60 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 30.13 [8]

Core Viewpoint - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected at 13.297 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 23.19%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 494 million, down 6.33% year-on-year, primarily due to losses in the lithium iron phosphate business. The company maintains a "buy" rating based on its competitive advantages in differentiated products and expected growth in new technologies [1][3]. Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 3.414 billion, a year-on-year decline of 18.48%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 127 million, showing a year-on-year increase of 10.01% [2]. - For Q1 2025, revenue is expected to be 2.977 billion, down 9.77% year-on-year, with a net profit of 117 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.84% due to strong performance in cobalt lithium sales, which rose by 46.55% [2]. Market Position and Product Performance - The company has increased its market share in ternary and cobalt lithium materials, with cobalt lithium sales reaching 46,200 tons in 2024, up 33.52% year-on-year, significantly outpacing the market growth rate of 18.8% [2]. - Ternary material sales were 52,400 tons, up 40.03% year-on-year, while the industry growth was only 3.6%, attributed to the company's competitive advantages in high-voltage and high-power products [2]. Future Outlook - The company expects to reduce losses in lithium iron phosphate as production efficiency and capacity utilization improve in 2025. New technologies such as the NL new structure and solid-state battery materials are anticipated to contribute to revenue growth [3]. - The company has revised down its shipment and profitability assumptions for lithium iron phosphate but expects improvements in 2027 due to economies of scale. Projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 667 million, 809 million, and 954 million, respectively [3]. Valuation - The company maintains a "buy" rating with a revised target price of 53.72, based on a 34 times PE for 2025, down from a previous 29 times PE for 2024, reflecting expected growth in ternary and cobalt lithium shipments and contributions from new technologies [3].