晨报 碳酸锂 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 右。2024 年 12 月 30 日-2025 年 1 月 5 日，10 个重点城市新建商品房成 交（签约）面积总计 223.4 万平方米，环比下降 40.3%，同比增长 43.2%。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 成 材：武秋婷 逻辑:昨日碳酸锂期货走势剧烈波动，日内振幅超 13%。主力合约高开 高走，随后盘面快速回落，触及跌停板 11.74 万元/吨，日内跌幅超过 8%， 收至 118820 元/吨。成交活跃度 ...

1. Report Information - Report Name: Carbonate Lithium Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: December 25, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3][4] 2. Core Viewpoints - Carbonate lithium futures rose to a new high in two years, with total positions decreasing by 9,244 lots and increasing capital exit sentiment. The spot price increased by 2,000 to 101,500, Australian ore rose by 30 to 1,435, mica rose by 85 to 3,210, ternary materials rose by 700 - 800, lithium iron phosphate rose by 470 - 490, and electrolyte prices remained flat. The industry chain price increase trend continued, and there was still fundamental support. However, the short - term deviation between futures and spot prices of carbonate lithium was large. As the LC2601 contract was about to enter delivery, the pressure of futures - spot convergence might slow down the short - term upward pace of lithium prices [11] 3. Industry News Summary - On December 24, Zhongwei Co., Ltd. stated on the interactive platform that it had acquired two salt lake lithium mines in Argentina at low cost at the bottom of the industry cycle, and 100% equity transfer procedures had been completed. The two salt lake lithium mines were still in the exploration and construction stage [12] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued several opinions to promote the large - scale development of solar thermal power generation. They supported new energy bases such as large - scale "desert, Gobi, and wasteland" new energy bases for external transmission, water - wind - solar bases for external transmission, and various self - use bases with suitable technical and economic conditions to carry out solar thermal power station project construction. They would scientifically determine the installed capacity of solar thermal power generation in the bases, optimize and improve the base regulation capacity, increase the proportion of green electricity in the base, reduce the average carbon emissions per kilowatt - hour of the base, strengthen the stable transmission of new energy, and actively explore the role of technically and economically feasible solar thermal power stations as supporting and regulating power sources in large bases [12]

Report Information - Report Name: Carbonate Lithium Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: December 17, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [4] - Researchers: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Report Highlights 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided. 2. Core View - Carbonate lithium futures are oscillating at a high level. Affected by weak market sentiment, the main contract of carbonate lithium futures once fell below 100,000. The 05 - 01 spread on the disk narrowed slightly to 1,860. The spot price of electric carbon increased by 700 to 95,850. The discount of the trading market to the main contract widened to (-3,200, -1,000). The price of lithium spodumene ore increased by 40 to 1,260, the price of lithium mica ore increased by 80 to 2,700, the price of ternary materials increased by 200 - 250, the price of iron - lithium increased by 165 - 170, and the price of electrolyte remained flat. The upward price trend in the industrial chain is stable, but the inventory reduction in social warehouses has slowed down, and the fundamental support momentum has weakened. In the short term, attention should be paid to the previous high pressure level. However, with the rising prices in the industrial chain, carbonate lithium futures are expected to be more likely to rise than to fall [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Carbonate lithium futures are in high - level oscillation. The main contract was affected by weak market sentiment and once fell below 100,000. The 05 - 01 spread narrowed slightly. The spot price of electric carbon, lithium ore, and some materials increased, while the electrolyte price remained unchanged. The price increase trend in the industrial chain is stable, but the inventory reduction in social warehouses has slowed down, and the fundamental support has weakened. It is expected that the futures are more likely to rise than to fall, and short - term attention should be paid to the previous high pressure level [9]. 3.2 Industry News - **M&A News**: Canadian lithium - mining developer Li - FT Power announced a binding agreement to acquire all issued shares of Australian listed company Winsome Resources for approximately $86.8 million. After the transaction, Winsome shareholders will hold about 35.3% of the merged company. Winsome's core asset is the Adina lithium - mining project, which is one of the top five lithium - resource projects in North America, with proven resources of 1.4 million tons of lithium oxide (grade 1.14%) and inferred resources of 16.5 million tons of lithium oxide (grade 1.19%) [12]. - **Distributed Energy Storage Report**: From 2019 to September 2025, the cumulative installed capacity of domestic distributed energy storage (connected at a voltage level below 35kV and with a power scale ≤6MW) increased from 570MW to 3,638MW. Since 2024, the growth rate has accelerated significantly. Jiangsu, Guangdong, and Zhejiang rank in the top three in terms of cumulative installed capacity. In different application scenarios, industrial and commercial energy storage accounts for 68.70%, followed by grid - side distributed energy storage at 8.30% and new energy - supported energy storage at 7.09%. Lithium - ion batteries account for 92.77% of the domestic distributed energy - storage installed capacity [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company's performance in Q3 exceeded expectations, with both revenue and profit growth driven by increased sales of lithium cobalt oxide [9] - The company is expected to benefit from government subsidies and rising demand in the consumer electronics sector, projecting a significant increase in lithium cobalt oxide shipments [9] - The company is advancing in solid-state battery materials, particularly lithium sulfide, with plans for increased production capacity [9] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 17,311 million yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 39.79% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 is estimated at 527.45 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 52.93% [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is forecasted at 1.05 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 74.02 [1] - The company anticipates a recovery in net profit to 833.28 million yuan by 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 68.65% [1] - The projected EPS for 2025 is 1.65 yuan, with a P/E ratio of 46.85 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic energy storage installation in August showed a steady recovery, with year-on-year and month-on-month growth of 58% and 63% respectively, indicating a positive trend in the industry [1] Group 1: Energy Storage and Lithium Industry - In the first eight months of the year, cumulative installations increased by 36% year-on-year [1] - The U.S. market experienced a 47% year-on-year increase in grid-connected capacity in August, although it saw a month-on-month decline of 28% due to adjustments in the ITC Act [1] - Lithium battery production in October is expected to grow by 3% to 9% month-on-month, with battery, anode, and electrolyte segments showing year-on-year growth rates exceeding 40% [1] - Prices for lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide saw a monthly increase of 20%, while prices for battery cells and electrolytes also rose; however, iron-lithium material prices slightly decreased due to supply chain adjustments [1] Group 2: Solid-State Battery Technology - Solid-state battery technology is entering a critical window, with plans for mass production of composite current collectors starting in the second half of 2025 [1] - Accelerated layout of pilot lines for all-solid-state batteries is expected, with demonstration vehicle production anticipated between 2026 and 2027 [1] Group 3: Industry Trends and ETF - The industry inventory cycle has entered a replenishment phase, with improvements in supply-demand dynamics in certain segments [1] - New technological breakthroughs are contributing to a diversified increase in the industry's prosperity [1] - The Mechanical ETF (516960) tracks a specialized mechanical index (000812), focusing on high-quality listed companies in the mechanical equipment sector, reflecting the overall performance and development trends of related securities [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][8][6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 7.53 billion RMB for H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 18.0%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 310 million RMB, up 27.8% year-on-year [2] - The significant growth in net profit is primarily driven by the increase in lithium cobalt oxide sales and inventory gains from rising cobalt prices [2] - The company is expected to outperform the industry in terms of sales growth for ternary materials and lithium cobalt oxide due to its competitive advantages [2] - The company has successfully achieved large-scale production of high-voltage lithium cobalt oxide and is making progress in solid-state battery materials [5][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 4.557 billion RMB, with a year-on-year increase of 47.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 53.1% [3] - The net profit for Q2 2025 was 190 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 47.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 63.0% [3] - The gross margin and net margin reached 10.26% and 4.20%, respectively, with a decrease in expense ratios contributing to improved profitability [3] Sales and Production - The sales volume of lithium cobalt oxide in H1 2025 was 28,800 tons, a year-on-year increase of 56.6%, significantly outpacing the industry growth rate of 27.8% [4] - The company is expected to maintain a strong market share in high-end markets due to its technological advantages in lithium cobalt oxide [4] Product Development - The company is advancing its NL structure and solid-state battery materials, with successful trials and sample deliveries to major clients [5] - The solid-state electrolyte production has reached stable ton-level output, indicating progress in the development of next-generation battery materials [5] Profitability Forecast - The company has revised its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 746 million RMB, 901 million RMB, and 1.053 billion RMB, respectively, reflecting an upward adjustment of 12%, 11%, and 10% [6] - The target price for the company's stock is set at 66.60 RMB, based on a projected PE ratio of 45 times for 2025 [6]

Group 1 - Dongwu Securities issued a report on August 21, giving a "buy" rating to Xiamen Tungsten New Energy (688778.SH, latest price: 57.3 yuan) [2] - The rating is supported by the alignment of H1 2025 performance with preliminary reports [2] - In the first half of the year, lithium cobalt oxide sales saw significant growth, benefiting from rising cobalt prices, leading to a net profit increase of over 10,000 yuan per ton [2] - The profitability of ternary batteries remained stable in Q2 2025, while iron-lithium continued to reduce losses [2] - The company demonstrated a competitive advantage in solid-state lithium sulfide technology [2] - Operating cash flow improved quarter-on-quarter in Q2, and capital expenditures slowed down [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that in Q2, the profit increment was contributed by lithium cobalt oxide, while the profitability of ternary materials remained stable [7] - The company is expected to benefit from the rising prices of cobalt, with a projected sales volume of over 60,000 tons for lithium cobalt oxide in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of over 30% [7] - The report maintains the profit forecast for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 806.44 million, 930.15 million, and 1,117.73 million yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 35.86, 31.09, and 25.87 [1][7] Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company reported total revenue of 7.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18%, and a net profit of 310 million yuan, up 27.8% year-on-year [7] - The gross profit margin for the first half of 2025 was 10%, with Q2 showing a slight increase to 10.3% [7] - The company’s operating cash flow for the first half of 2025 was 650 million yuan, a decrease of 31.3% year-on-year [7] Sales and Production Insights - The sales volume of lithium cobalt oxide in the first half of 2025 reached 28,800 tons, a year-on-year increase of 57% [7] - The ternary material sales volume for the first half of 2025 was approximately 31,900 tons, showing a year-on-year growth of 21% [7] - The report indicates that the company is advancing solid-state battery core materials, particularly lithium sulfide, which is expected to enhance profitability [7] Market Data - The closing price of the company's stock is 57.30 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 28.92 billion yuan [5] - The company has a price-to-book ratio of 2.72 and a debt-to-asset ratio of 41.49% [6][5]

Battery Production - In August, C produced 63 GWh, a month-on-month increase of 15% and a year-on-year increase of 40% [1] - B produced 25.2 GWh in August, with a month-on-month increase of 10% and a year-on-year increase of 50% [1] - E's preliminary production in August was over 12 GWh, showing a month-on-month increase of 2% and a year-on-year increase of 60% [1] - Z's production in August was close to 11 GWh, with a month-on-month increase of 5% and a year-on-year increase of 50% [1] - G produced nearly 10 GWh in August, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 10% and a year-on-year increase of 65% [1] Material Production - For ternary materials, production in August was 0.8 million tons, remaining flat month-on-month but down 30% year-on-year due to lower-than-expected demand in the US [1] - Lithium iron phosphate (LiFePO4) production was 1.8 million tons in August, flat month-on-month and unchanged year-on-year [1] - Another LiFePO4 production line produced 2.5 million tons, with a month-on-month increase of 10% and a year-on-year increase of 10% [1] - Separator production reached over 400 million square meters, remaining flat month-on-month and up 24% year-on-year [1] - Another separator line produced nearly 1 billion square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 9% and a year-on-year increase of 50% [1] - Anode production was 2.7 million tons in August, showing a month-on-month increase of 6% and a year-on-year increase of 30% [1] - Copper foil production was 8,000 tons, flat month-on-month and up 23% year-on-year [1] - Another copper foil line produced over 12,000 tons, with a month-on-month increase of 2% and a year-on-year increase of 33% [1] - Aluminum foil production was over 18,000 tons, remaining flat month-on-month and up 40% year-on-year [1] Industry Trends - The main engine manufacturers are focusing on balancing performance and cost in battery cell procurement [3] - BYD is expanding its presence in Southeast Asia [5] - CATL is experiencing growth in the energy storage market that exceeds that of the power market [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company's H1 2025 performance slightly exceeded market expectations, with total revenue of 7.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 310 million yuan, up 28% [7] - The sales volume of lithium cobalt oxide saw significant growth, benefiting from rising cobalt prices, with a projected sales volume of over 60,000 tons for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of over 30% [7] - The company is positioned well in the solid-state battery market with its lithium sulfide product, leveraging advanced technology and integrated production processes [7] Financial Summary - The company's total revenue is projected to reach 17.06 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 28.33% [8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 806.44 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth of 63.22% compared to the previous year [8] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 1.60 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 30.13 [8]