1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate are "oscillation" for industrial silicon and lithium carbonate, and "wait - and - see" for polysilicon [7][8][73] 2. Report's Core View - Before the holiday, the macro - sentiment weakened, and commodity prices fluctuated greatly. For industrial silicon, the supply in the northwest decreased, and demand entered the off - season, with both supply and demand decreasing and prices expected to oscillate. For polysilicon, the existing contracts have poor liquidity, and investors are advised to be cautious. For lithium carbonate, the pre - holiday restocking is basically completed, and attention should be paid to the battery rush - to - export market from after the holiday to the end of the first quarter [2][7][8][73] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industrial Silicon (SI) 3.1.1 Supply - The national weekly output was 63,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14.05%. The number of open furnaces nationwide was 178, a decrease of 32 compared to the previous week. In January, the output was 375,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.44% and a year - on - year increase of 23.48%. The planned output in February is 273,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 27.12% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.63%. In the main producing areas, Xinjiang's weekly output was 38,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 20.86%, and the number of open furnaces decreased by 29. Yunnan's weekly output was 4,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.67%, and the number of open furnaces decreased by 2 [7] 3.1.2 Demand - For polysilicon, the weekly output was 19,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.05%. The factory inventory was 330,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.51%. The profit per ton was about 6,124 yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 642 yuan/ton. In January, the output was 100,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.73% and a year - on - year increase of 6.78%. The planned output in February is 79,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20.93% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.54%. For organic silicon, the DMC weekly output was 41,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.90%. The factory inventory was 39,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.47%. The gross profit per ton was 1,956.25 yuan, a week - on - week increase of 97 yuan/ton. In January, the output was 203,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.85% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.61%. The planned output in February is 171,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.14% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.29% [7] 3.1.3 Inventory - The visible inventory was 506,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.16%, with fluctuations and a year - on - year decrease of 29.00%. The industry inventory was 422,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.76%. Among them, the market inventory was 187,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.06%, and the factory inventory was 235,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.79%. The warehouse receipt inventory was 83,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 26.12%, with inventory accumulation [7] 3.1.4 Cost and Profit - The national average cost per ton was 9,065 yuan, a week - on - week increase of 0.15%. The gross profit per ton was - 47 yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 36 yuan/ton. In the main producing areas, the gross profit decreased. The average gross profit per ton in Xinjiang and Yunnan was 263 yuan/ton and - 460 yuan/ton respectively, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton and 92 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [7] 3.1.5 Investment View and Trading Strategy - The investment view is "oscillation". Considering the high level of visible inventory, the impact of changes in supply and demand is weakened, and prices are expected to oscillate. The trading strategy for the single - side is "oscillation", and attention should be paid to the disturbances of large - scale plant production reduction and resumption and environmental protection policy changes [7] 3.2 Polysilicon (PS) 3.2.1 Supply - The national weekly output was 19,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.05%. In January, the output was 100,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.73% and a year - on - year increase of 6.78%. The planned output in February is 79,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20.93% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.54% [8] 3.2.2 Demand - The weekly output of silicon wafers was 10.70 GW, a week - on - week decrease of 1.02%. The gross profit per GW was - 31,587 yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 15,495 yuan. The factory inventory was 28.32 GW, a week - on - week increase of 3.77%. In January, the silicon wafer output was 45.93 GW, a month - on - month increase of 4.62% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.15%. The planned output in February is 45.31 GW, a month - on - month decrease of 1.35% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.23%. In December 2025, the new installed capacity was 40.18 GW, a year - on - year decrease of 43.30% and a month - on - month increase of 82.47%. The total installed capacity in 2025 was 315.07 GW, a year - on - year increase of 13.67% [8] 3.2.3 Inventory - The factory inventory was 330,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.51%, with fluctuations. The registered warehouse receipts were 25,830 tons, a week - on - week increase of 17.62%, with continuous increase [8] 3.2.4 Cost and Profit - The national average cost per ton was 43,876 yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 0.51%. The gross profit per ton was 6,124 yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 642 yuan [8] 3.2.5 Investment View and Trading Strategy - The investment view is "wait - and - see". The existing contracts have poor liquidity, and investors should pay attention to price fluctuations and liquidity risks and participate with caution. The trading strategy for the single - side is "wait - and - see", and attention should be paid to the disturbances of large - scale plant production reduction and resumption and anti - involution policy changes [8] 3.3 Lithium Carbonate (LC) 3.3.1 Supply - The national weekly output was 20,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.82%. The weekly output of lithium extraction from spodumene was 12,454 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.96%. The weekly output of lithium extraction from lepidolite was 2,922 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.18%. The weekly output of lithium extraction from salt lakes was 3,130 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.34%. In January, the lithium carbonate output was 97,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.31% and a year - on - year increase of 0.00%. The planned output in February is about 81,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.31% and a year - on - year increase of 27.92% [73] 3.3.2 Import - In December, the import volume of lithium carbonate was 24,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.77% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.43%. Among them, the import volume from Chile was 13,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.96% and a year - on - year decrease of 41.74%. In December, Chile's exports of lithium carbonate to China were 8,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 45.07% and a year - on - year decrease of 39.60%. In December, the import volume of lithium concentrate was 628,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.31% and a year - on - year increase of 30.22%. Among them, the import volume from Australia was 309,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 27.18% and a year - on - year increase of 1.89%. The import volume from Zimbabwe was 130,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.15% and a year - on - year increase of 39.50% [73] 3.3.3 Demand - For lithium iron phosphate materials, the weekly output was 97,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.96%. The factory inventory was 95,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.85%. In January, the output was 396,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.81% and a year - on - year increase of 57.00%. The planned output in February is 354,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.74% and a year - on - year increase of 54.94%. For ternary materials, the weekly output was 18,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.89%. The factory inventory was 18,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.40%. In January, the output was 81,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.89% and a year - on - year increase of 48.50%. The planned output in February is about 69,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.58% and a year - on - year increase of 43.45%. In December, the production volume of new energy vehicles was 1.718 million, a month - on - month decrease of 8.60% and a year - on - year increase of 12.29%. The sales volume was 1.71 million, a month - on - month decrease of 6.18% and a year - on - year increase of 7.14%. In December, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 52.26%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.90 pct. In November, the export volume of new energy vehicles was 300,000, a month - on - month increase of 17.19% and a year - on - year increase of 261.45%. In the first quarter, due to the preferential purchase tax for new energy vehicles and the withdrawal of national subsidies, combined with the pre - placement of demand in December, the production and sales of new energy vehicles may decrease month - on - month. In 2025, the total winning bid power/scale for energy storage was 77.69 GW/203.4 GWh, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 89.72%/123.98% [73] 3.3.4 Inventory - The social inventory (including warehouse receipts) was 105,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.88%, with continuous inventory reduction. The inventory of lithium salt factories was 18,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.40%. The inventory of downstream sectors (cathode material factories, battery factories, and traders) was 87,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.55%. Among them, the inventory of cathode material factories was 43,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.53%, and the inventory of battery factories + traders was 43,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9.25%. The warehouse receipt inventory was 33,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 11.80% [73] 3.3.5 Cost and Profit - For lithium extraction from purchased ores, the cash production cost of lithium extraction from lepidolite was 140,070 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 8.57%. The production profit was - 1,420 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10,391 yuan/ton. The cash production cost of lithium extraction from spodumene was 138,941 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 11.27%. The production profit was 3,100 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 6,103 yuan/ton. For integrated lithium extraction, the cash production cost of lithium extraction from lepidolite was 63,218 yuan/ton, and the cash production cost of lithium extraction from spodumene was 55,276 yuan/ton [73] 3.3.6 Investment View and Trading Strategy - The investment view is "oscillation". Affected by the weakening of macro - sentiment and the chain reaction of liquidity before the holiday, the price of lithium carbonate fluctuated greatly. In the short term, the pre - holiday stocking demand of downstream enterprises is basically completed, and the pre - holiday market may be dull. Attention should be paid to the battery rush - to - export market from after the holiday to the end of the first quarter. The trading strategy for the single - side is "oscillation", and attention should be paid to the disturbances of ore - end production reduction, environmental protection policy changes, and the disturbances of large - scale power plants [73]

Macro Strategy - The core viewpoint is that the reform of the public housing fund can release significant consumption potential by lowering housing costs, thereby saving more funds for consumption. Three specific paths are proposed to reduce housing costs: expanding rental withdrawals, broadening the usage scope of the fund, and further lowering loan interest rates. The total potential release of funds is estimated at approximately 515.1 billion yuan, which could theoretically stimulate consumption by about 360.6 billion yuan, increasing the growth rate of resident consumption by 0.7 percentage points [1][15]. Fixed Income Strategy - The report discusses the "see-saw" relationship between stocks and bonds, emphasizing that this relationship is not stable or universal. The direction of stock and bond pricing is determined by the interplay between the numerator (earnings) and the denominator (interest rates). When the economy performs well, stock prices may rise due to improved earnings, but rising interest rates can suppress bond prices and increase stock discount rates, leading to uncertain stock index directions. Conversely, in a weak economic environment, stock prices may decline even if bond prices rise [2][18]. Industry Insights - The commercial aerospace sector is highlighted as a key investment area for 2026, driven by the successful launch of domestic rockets, which has removed previous operational bottlenecks. The report suggests focusing on four main areas: SpaceX-related stocks, rocket and satellite sectors, and space computing/solar power. Specific companies to watch include Maimai Co., Anhui Helit, and others in the rocket and satellite sectors [3][21]. Water Conservancy Investment - The report indicates that the "northward shift of the rain belt" since 2021 has led to increased rainfall and flooding in northern China, prompting a focus on enhancing water conservancy infrastructure. It is projected that water-related investments in 2026 could see significant growth, contributing to a recovery in overall fixed asset investments by approximately 1.1 percentage points [2][16][17]. Electric Power Equipment - The report emphasizes the potential for rapid development in space solar power due to the acceleration of commercial aerospace and low-orbit satellite advancements. Companies involved in space power supply and equipment are recommended for investment, including Jun Da Co. and Ming Yang Smart Energy [6][21]. Food and Beverage Industry - The report discusses the potential of AKK bacteria as a beneficial symbiotic organism in gut health, with applications in obesity and diabetes management. The market for AKK is expected to grow significantly, with a focus on leading companies in the probiotic sector [3][23].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company's Q4 performance met expectations, with a total revenue of 20.03 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 48%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 754.9 million yuan, up 52.79% year-on-year [7] - The company has seen steady growth in lithium cobalt oxide shipments, with a total sales volume of 65,300 tons in 2025, a 41% increase year-on-year. The profitability remains high, with a projected net profit of over 10,000 yuan per ton in Q4 [7] - The company is experiencing stable growth in ternary and lithium iron phosphate sales, with total sales of 77,000 tons in 2025, a 48% increase year-on-year. The company expects to achieve profitability in lithium iron phosphate sales in 2026 [7] - The solid-state battery business is progressing well, with the company having established a production capacity of 10 tons in 2025 and plans for a hundred-ton production line in 2026 [7] - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted downwards due to increased expense provisions, with net profits projected at 7.5 billion, 10.5 billion, and 12.7 billion yuan respectively [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 17.31 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 39.79%. For 2024, revenue is expected to be 13.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 23.19% [1][8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 is estimated at 527.45 million yuan, down 52.93% year-on-year, and for 2024, it is projected at 494.07 million yuan, a decrease of 6.33% [1][8] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is expected to be 1.05 yuan, decreasing to 0.98 yuan in 2024 [1][8] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 88.99 for 2023, decreasing to 95.00 for 2024, and further down to 62.18 for 2025 [1][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company's Q4 performance met expectations, with a total revenue of 20.03 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 48%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 754.9 million yuan, up 52.79% year-on-year [7] - The company has seen steady growth in lithium cobalt oxide shipments, with a total sales volume of 65,300 tons in 2025, a 41% increase year-on-year. The profitability remains high, with a projected net profit of over 10,000 yuan per ton in Q4 [7] - The company is experiencing stable growth in ternary and lithium iron phosphate sales, with total sales of 77,000 tons in 2025, a 48% increase year-on-year. The company expects to achieve profitability in lithium iron phosphate sales in 2026 [7] - The solid-state battery business is progressing well, with the company having established a production capacity of 10 tons in 2025 and plans for a 100-ton production line in 2026 [7] - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted downwards due to increased expense provisions, with net profits projected at 7.5 billion, 10.5 billion, and 12.7 billion yuan respectively [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2025 is projected at 20.03 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 50.65% for 2026 and 10.21% for 2027 [8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 754.9 million yuan in 2025, with growth rates of 52.79%, 39.70%, and 20.81% for the following years [8] - The latest diluted EPS is projected to be 1.50 yuan for 2025, increasing to 2.09 yuan in 2026 and 2.52 yuan in 2027 [8] - The P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 62.18 in 2025 to 36.84 in 2027, indicating improving valuation metrics [8]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Company Overview - The company discussed is **Xiamen Tungsten Co., Ltd.** (厦钨新能), focusing on its performance in the fourth quarter (Q4) and projections for the upcoming years. Key Financial Metrics - **2025 Revenue**: 20.03 billion CNY, an increase of 48% year-on-year [1] - **Net Profit**: 750 million CNY, an increase of 42% year-on-year [1] - **Net Profit Margin**: 3.8%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year [1] - **Q4 Revenue**: 6.97 billion CNY, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 104% and a year-on-year increase of 26% [1] - **Q4 Net Profit**: 200 million CNY, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 17% and a year-on-year increase of 60% [1] - **Q4 Net Profit Margin**: 2.9%, a decrease of 0.8 and 1.5 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1] Product Performance - **Lithium Cobalt Oxide Sales**: 65,300 tons in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 41% [1] - **Q4 Lithium Cobalt Oxide Sales**: 18,000 tons, stable quarter-on-quarter [1] - **Demand Outlook**: Expected to remain stable in 2026 [1] Profitability Insights - **Net Profit per Ton**: Approximately 10,000 CNY/ton, with a slight quarter-on-quarter decrease due to increased expense ratios [2] - **Sales Growth**: - **NCM (Nickel Cobalt Manganese)**: 77,000 tons in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 48% [2] - **Q4 NCM Sales**: 24,400 tons, stable quarter-on-quarter [2] - **Iron Lithium Sales**: 22,000 tons in 2025, with Q4 sales between 6,000-7,000 tons, stable quarter-on-quarter [2] - **Profitability of Iron Lithium**: Expected to turn profitable in 2026 [2] Solid-State Battery Development - **Lithium Sulfide Progress**: The company has made advancements in lithium sulfide from equipment development to production processes, with existing orders from Japanese and Korean clients as well as leading domestic battery companies [2] - **Current Production Capacity**: 10 tons, with plans for a 100-ton production line in 2026 [2] Profit Forecast - **Net Profit Projections**: - 2025: 750 million CNY - 2026: 1.05 billion CNY (up 53% year-on-year) - 2027: 1.27 billion CNY (up 40% year-on-year) [2] - **Price-to-Earnings Ratios**: 62x for 2025, 45x for 2026, and 37x for 2027 [2] - **Investment Rating**: Maintained as "Buy" [2]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Company Overview - The company discussed is **厦钨新能 (Xiamen Tungsten New Energy)**, focusing on its performance and outlook for 2025 and 2026. Financial Performance - In 2025, the company achieved a revenue of **¥20.03 billion**, representing a **48% year-on-year increase**. The net profit attributable to shareholders was **¥750 million**, with a **42% increase**, and the net profit excluding non-recurring items was **¥710 million**, up **58%** [1] - For Q4 2025, the net profit attributable to shareholders was **¥200 million**, showing a **42% year-on-year increase** and a **7% quarter-on-quarter decrease**. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was also **¥200 million**, with an **89% year-on-year increase** and a **7% quarter-on-quarter decrease**. The decline in apparent performance was mainly due to a **¥150 million impairment provision** [1] Product Performance - In Q4 2025, the company shipped **over 18,000 tons** of lithium cobalt oxide, with a slight quarter-on-quarter increase, driven by downstream inventory buildup amid rising raw material costs and adjustments in export tax rebate rates. The unit operating profit remained around **¥10,000** [2] - The shipment of ternary products was between **17,000 to 18,000 tons**, maintaining a unit operating profit of around **¥3,000**. Iron lithium shipments were over **6,000 tons**, continuing to reduce losses through full production [2] - For the entire year of 2025, shipments included **65,000 tons** of lithium cobalt oxide (up **41% year-on-year**), **55,000 to 56,000 tons** of ternary products (approximately **10% year-on-year increase**), and around **21,000 tons** of iron lithium [2] Strategic Outlook - The company anticipates that the **solid-state battery** layout will progress smoothly, with the potential for significant growth in 2026. Factors such as the promotion of AI at the endpoint and increased battery capacity in mobile devices are expected to contribute to stable growth in lithium cobalt oxide [3] - The ternary and iron lithium segments are projected to grow alongside the power market, with the iron lithium business expected to turn around and contribute to performance growth [3] - The company is advancing its **10+ ton pilot line** for solid-state batteries, and if cost reduction progresses faster than expected, it may achieve non-linear growth in market share. Additionally, the lithium supplement is expected to continue increasing, with the NL cathode project set to commence delivery in 2026, leading to a comprehensive increase in output [3] - The company forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders of **¥900 million to ¥1 billion** in 2026, and continues to be positively recommended for investment [3]

Summary of Company and Industry Insights from Conference Call Company Overview - Company: 厦钨新能 (Xiamen Tungsten New Energy) - Industry: Lithium battery materials and energy storage solutions Key Financial Highlights - In 2025, the company achieved revenue of 20.03 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 48% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 750 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 42%, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 710 million yuan, up 58% year-on-year [1] - For Q4 2025, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 200 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 42% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 7% [1] Operational Performance - In Q4 2025, the company shipped over 18,000 tons of lithium cobalt oxide, with a slight increase quarter-on-quarter, driven by downstream inventory buildup amid rising raw material costs and adjustments in export tax rebates [2] - The unit operating profit for lithium cobalt oxide remained around 10,000 yuan, while ternary lithium shipments were between 17,000 to 18,000 tons with a unit operating profit of approximately 3,000 yuan [2] - Iron lithium shipments exceeded 6,000 tons, continuing to reduce losses through full production [2] Inventory and Impairment - The company recognized inventory impairment and credit impairment losses of 120 million yuan and 40 million yuan, respectively, due to losses from fixed-amount orders and routine year-end provisions [2] Future Outlook - For 2026, the company anticipates a significant increase in new capacity, driven by the promotion of AI at the edge and continued enhancements in battery capacity for mobile devices [3] - The lithium cobalt oxide segment is expected to maintain steady growth, while the ternary and iron lithium segments are projected to benefit from the growth in the power market, with the iron lithium business expected to turn profitable [3] - The company is making progress in solid-state battery development, with a pilot line for over 10 tons advancing smoothly, and if cost reduction progresses faster than expected, it could lead to non-linear growth in market share [3] - The company aims to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 900 to 1 billion yuan in 2026, with a strong recommendation for continued investment [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The price of finished steel is expected to move downward with a weak trend, and it will operate in a range-bound and weak manner, with a focus on shock consolidation [1][3] - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate within a range, and the market will focus on market games and marginal supply and demand, with a view of range-bound fluctuations [1][4] Group 3: Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs Finished Steel - In the Yunnan-Guizhou region, short-process construction steel enterprises will stop production for maintenance from mid-to-late January, and the resumption time is expected to be around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, with an estimated impact on the total construction steel output of 741,000 tons during the shutdown period. In Anhui Province, one of the six short-process steel mills stopped production on January 5th, and most of the other steel mills will stop production around mid-January, with an estimated daily impact on output of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown period [2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly-built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decline from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year-on-year [2] - Yesterday, finished steel prices continued to decline in a volatile manner, reaching a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is also pessimistic, causing the price center to continue to shift downward. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak support for prices [3] Lithium Carbonate - Yesterday, the lithium carbonate futures fluctuated sharply, with an intraday amplitude of over 13%. The main contract opened high and moved high, then quickly fell back, hitting the daily limit of 117,400 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of over 8%, closing at 118,820 yuan/ton. Trading activity significantly rebounded, with trading volume increasing to 689,000 lots, and positions continued to shrink to 512,000 lots. The net short position of the main contract continued, and registered warehouse receipts continued to increase, indicating a looser market supply expectation [2] - On the spot side, the average price of electric carbon continued to rise to 118,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the main contract was -820 yuan/ton, maintaining a negative basis pattern. In the market transaction, due to a slight improvement in the rigid demand procurement gap, the price center continued to move up with rigid demand transactions [2] - In terms of fundamentals, on the supply side, raw material prices continued to rise last week, further strengthening cost support. The weekly operating rate and weekly output of SMM lithium carbonate both increased by 0.53% month-on-month, with the supply side steadily releasing but at a slower pace. On the demand side, short-term demand slightly decreased, while long-term demand was firmly supported. SMM data showed that last week, the output of ternary and lithium iron phosphate decreased by 0.67% and 1.42% month-on-month respectively, and inventories decreased by 0.49% and 1.36% month-on-month respectively, continuing to decline. The output of power cells decreased by 0.41% month-on-month and increased by 39.1% year-on-year. New energy vehicle sales increased by 7.22% month-on-month, and the penetration rate increased by 7.47% month-on-month, showing a high year-on-year increase [3] - In terms of inventory, last week, the total weekly inventory of the SMM sample decreased by 0.59% month-on-month and increased by 1.97% year-on-year, with the de-stocking slope slowing down. The total inventory days decreased by 0.38% month-on-month and 27.30% year-on-year. The inventory structure shifted from the production and consumption ends to the trading end. Last week, the social inventory in four regions increased by 3.30% month-on-month, showing a phased accumulation, and decreased by 48.79% year-on-year, indicating that the tight inventory pattern remained unchanged, but the support of inventory for prices weakened marginally [3] - Policy-wise, the short-term regulatory tightening is clear, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange has implemented measures such as trading limits to deal with price fluctuations. The Fed's interest rate cut, the Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Plan, and a series of deployments from the Central Economic Work Conference form a synergistic positive effect, combined with the focus on energy storage in the 14th Five-Year Plan and the continuation of new energy vehicle trade-in subsidies to support long-term supply and demand. With the release of market speculation sentiment and increased regulatory control, the futures price may maintain a range-bound consolidation [4]

1. Report Information - Report Name: Carbonate Lithium Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: December 25, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3][4] 2. Core Viewpoints - Carbonate lithium futures rose to a new high in two years, with total positions decreasing by 9,244 lots and increasing capital exit sentiment. The spot price increased by 2,000 to 101,500, Australian ore rose by 30 to 1,435, mica rose by 85 to 3,210, ternary materials rose by 700 - 800, lithium iron phosphate rose by 470 - 490, and electrolyte prices remained flat. The industry chain price increase trend continued, and there was still fundamental support. However, the short - term deviation between futures and spot prices of carbonate lithium was large. As the LC2601 contract was about to enter delivery, the pressure of futures - spot convergence might slow down the short - term upward pace of lithium prices [11] 3. Industry News Summary - On December 24, Zhongwei Co., Ltd. stated on the interactive platform that it had acquired two salt lake lithium mines in Argentina at low cost at the bottom of the industry cycle, and 100% equity transfer procedures had been completed. The two salt lake lithium mines were still in the exploration and construction stage [12] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued several opinions to promote the large - scale development of solar thermal power generation. They supported new energy bases such as large - scale "desert, Gobi, and wasteland" new energy bases for external transmission, water - wind - solar bases for external transmission, and various self - use bases with suitable technical and economic conditions to carry out solar thermal power station project construction. They would scientifically determine the installed capacity of solar thermal power generation in the bases, optimize and improve the base regulation capacity, increase the proportion of green electricity in the base, reduce the average carbon emissions per kilowatt - hour of the base, strengthen the stable transmission of new energy, and actively explore the role of technically and economically feasible solar thermal power stations as supporting and regulating power sources in large bases [12]

Report Information - Report Name: Carbonate Lithium Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: December 17, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [4] - Researchers: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Report Highlights 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided. 2. Core View - Carbonate lithium futures are oscillating at a high level. Affected by weak market sentiment, the main contract of carbonate lithium futures once fell below 100,000. The 05 - 01 spread on the disk narrowed slightly to 1,860. The spot price of electric carbon increased by 700 to 95,850. The discount of the trading market to the main contract widened to (-3,200, -1,000). The price of lithium spodumene ore increased by 40 to 1,260, the price of lithium mica ore increased by 80 to 2,700, the price of ternary materials increased by 200 - 250, the price of iron - lithium increased by 165 - 170, and the price of electrolyte remained flat. The upward price trend in the industrial chain is stable, but the inventory reduction in social warehouses has slowed down, and the fundamental support momentum has weakened. In the short term, attention should be paid to the previous high pressure level. However, with the rising prices in the industrial chain, carbonate lithium futures are expected to be more likely to rise than to fall [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Carbonate lithium futures are in high - level oscillation. The main contract was affected by weak market sentiment and once fell below 100,000. The 05 - 01 spread narrowed slightly. The spot price of electric carbon, lithium ore, and some materials increased, while the electrolyte price remained unchanged. The price increase trend in the industrial chain is stable, but the inventory reduction in social warehouses has slowed down, and the fundamental support has weakened. It is expected that the futures are more likely to rise than to fall, and short - term attention should be paid to the previous high pressure level [9]. 3.2 Industry News - **M&A News**: Canadian lithium - mining developer Li - FT Power announced a binding agreement to acquire all issued shares of Australian listed company Winsome Resources for approximately $86.8 million. After the transaction, Winsome shareholders will hold about 35.3% of the merged company. Winsome's core asset is the Adina lithium - mining project, which is one of the top five lithium - resource projects in North America, with proven resources of 1.4 million tons of lithium oxide (grade 1.14%) and inferred resources of 16.5 million tons of lithium oxide (grade 1.19%) [12]. - **Distributed Energy Storage Report**: From 2019 to September 2025, the cumulative installed capacity of domestic distributed energy storage (connected at a voltage level below 35kV and with a power scale ≤6MW) increased from 570MW to 3,638MW. Since 2024, the growth rate has accelerated significantly. Jiangsu, Guangdong, and Zhejiang rank in the top three in terms of cumulative installed capacity. In different application scenarios, industrial and commercial energy storage accounts for 68.70%, followed by grid - side distributed energy storage at 8.30% and new energy - supported energy storage at 7.09%. Lithium - ion batteries account for 92.77% of the domestic distributed energy - storage installed capacity [12].