Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains the revenue and profit forecasts for Tongcheng Travel (00780) for 2025 and 2026, with an "outperform" rating and a target price of HKD 28, indicating an upside potential of 28% [1] Group 1: Revenue Forecasts - For Q3 2025, the group expects a 9% year-on-year increase in total revenue to CNY 5.45 billion, with core OTA revenue projected to grow by 14% to CNY 4.59 billion [2] - The hotel segment is anticipated to see a 10-15% increase in room nights, with a steady rise in the share of three-star hotels, leading to a 14% growth in accommodation revenue [2] - The transportation segment is expected to grow by 9%, benefiting from a 3% increase in domestic flight passenger volume and a rapid growth in international ticket sales [2] - Other revenues are projected to increase by 34%, driven by growth in hotel management and PMS revenues [2] Group 2: Annual Guidance - The company maintains its 2025 core OTA revenue growth forecast at 15%, supported by steady growth in domestic accommodation and transportation, along with contributions from international business [3] - The company is expected to achieve a Non-IFRS net profit of CNY 3.3 billion for 2025, aided by efficient cost control and enhanced monetization of international business [3]

Core Insights - The online travel industry is gearing up for a highly competitive Double Eleven shopping festival, with platforms like Fliggy and Ctrip leading the charge [1][4][5] - Fliggy has shown significant growth, with a 48% increase in GMV during the recent National Day holiday, raising expectations for its performance during Double Eleven [4][11] - The competition is intensifying, with various players including Meituan, Tongcheng, Douyin Life Services, and JD Travel also vying for market share [5][11] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current market environment has led to a heightened sense of urgency among travel merchants, who view Double Eleven as a critical opportunity to boost sales after a lackluster summer season [8][10] - Many brands are adopting aggressive pricing strategies, with some referring to their prices as "lifesaving prices" rather than promotional prices [9][10] - The competition between Fliggy and Ctrip is particularly fierce, as both platforms aim to secure exclusive deals and attract high-value customers [5][11] Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Consumers are becoming more strategic in their purchasing decisions, often waiting for the best deals during major sales events like Double Eleven [14][22] - There is a notable trend of consumers being patient and waiting for discounts, indicating a shift in purchasing behavior towards more calculated spending [21][24] - The demand for travel products remains strong, with many consumers actively looking for deals, even if they do not have specific travel plans in mind [18][24] Group 3: Strategic Implications - The success of platforms during Double Eleven will depend on their ability to effectively manage supply chains and collaborate with merchants [5][12] - Companies are increasingly planning their product offerings well in advance of the sales event, indicating a shift towards more strategic marketing approaches [11][23] - The interplay between platforms and merchants is crucial, as both parties must align their strategies to maximize sales during the promotional period [22][24]

Core Viewpoint - UBS forecasts that Tongcheng Travel (00780) will experience stable growth in core OTA revenue for Q3, with an expected year-on-year increase of 14%, approaching the previous guidance range of 10-15% [1] Revenue Projections - The travel demand during the National Day holiday has become normalized, and UBS believes that Tongcheng's hotel revenue will remain resilient [1] - The company’s accommodation revenue is projected to grow at a mid-teens level [1] - In the transportation segment, UBS predicts a high single-digit year-on-year revenue growth for Tongcheng in Q3 [1] Target Price Adjustment - UBS has raised the target price for Tongcheng from HKD 25.5 to HKD 26.5 while maintaining a "Buy" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - UBS forecasts Tongcheng Travel (00780) to experience stable growth in core OTA revenue for Q3, with an expected year-on-year increase of 14%, approaching the previous guidance range of 10-15% [1] Revenue Projections - The travel demand during the National Day holiday has become normalized, but UBS believes that Tongcheng's hotel revenue will remain resilient [1] - The company’s accommodation revenue growth is projected to be in the mid-teens percentage range [1] Target Price and Rating - UBS has raised the target price for Tongcheng from HKD 25.5 to HKD 26.5, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] Transportation Business - In terms of transportation services, UBS predicts a high single-digit year-on-year revenue growth for Tongcheng in Q3 [1]

Core Viewpoint - UBS expects Tongcheng Travel's core OTA revenue to achieve a 14% year-on-year growth in the third quarter, approaching the upper end of its previous guidance of 10%-15% [2] Revenue Insights - Despite normalized travel demand during the National Day holiday, Tongcheng's hotel revenue is expected to remain resilient, with accommodation revenue growth likely nearing the mid-teens percentage range [2] - In the transportation segment, third-quarter revenue is anticipated to achieve high single-digit year-on-year growth [2] Target Price Adjustment - UBS has raised the target price for Tongcheng Travel from HKD 25.5 to HKD 26.5 while maintaining a "Buy" rating [2]

Core Viewpoint - UBS forecasts that Tongcheng Travel's core OTA revenue will continue to grow steadily in Q3, with a year-on-year increase of 14%, approaching the previous guidance range of 10-15% [1] Group 1: Revenue Growth - The travel demand during the National Day holiday has become normalized, and UBS believes that Tongcheng's hotel revenue will remain resilient, predicting accommodation revenue growth close to mid-teens level [1] - In terms of transportation business, UBS predicts that Tongcheng's revenue in Q3 will record high single-digit growth year-on-year [1] Group 2: Target Price and Rating - UBS has raised its target price for Tongcheng Travel from HKD 25.5 to HKD 26.5 and maintains a "Buy" rating [1]

Core Insights - The online travel industry is gearing up for a highly competitive Double Eleven shopping festival, with major players like Fliggy and Ctrip intensifying their strategies to capture market share [1][7][13] - Fliggy is under significant pressure to perform well this year, especially after its integration with Taobao, and has already seen a 48% increase in GMV during the National Day holiday [2][3][13] - Ctrip is also taking a more aggressive approach this year, indicating a shift in its strategy compared to previous years, as it aims to capitalize on the Double Eleven event [3][4][13] Industry Dynamics - The competition among platforms has reached a new peak, with Fliggy and Ctrip as the main contenders, while other players like Meituan, Tongcheng, Douyin Life Services, and JD Travel are also vying for a share of the market [7][10] - For merchants, participating in Double Eleven is seen as a crucial opportunity to gain visibility and drive sales, akin to how physical stores prepare for the Christmas season [8][9] - The current market environment has created a necessity for platforms and merchants to engage in aggressive pricing strategies, with many brands referring to their pricing as "rescue prices" to recover from previous losses [12][13] Consumer Behavior - Despite concerns about consumer spending, there is evidence that demand remains strong, with many consumers waiting for the right moment to make purchases during the Double Eleven sales [17][21] - Consumers are increasingly making early decisions about their travel plans, with many already bookmarking deals in anticipation of the sales [21][22] - The emotional aspect of marketing plays a significant role, as consumers are accustomed to waiting for the best deals, indicating that the right product at the right price will still attract buyers [21][22]

Core Insights - Ctrip Finance has launched a mortgage loan service through its fintech subsidiary, marking its entry into the mortgage loan sector traditionally dominated by state-owned banks and consumer finance companies [1][6] - The mortgage loan service operates by collaborating with third-party loan service providers, allowing Ctrip Finance to monetize its user traffic without incurring high costs or credit risks [2][3] Business Model - The mortgage loan service is referred to as "form business," where Ctrip Finance collects borrower information and provides it to financial institutions for customer acquisition and risk control [2] - Ctrip Finance leverages its platform to tap into a stable flow of potential borrowers, particularly those with real estate assets, to generate revenue through referral fees or profit sharing [2][3] Market Context - The mortgage loan market has seen a contraction among non-bank institutions, with several consumer finance companies exiting the sector due to rising costs and declining asset values [7][9] - Ctrip Finance's entry into the mortgage loan market is seen as a strategic move to capture high-quality customer segments amid a tightening market environment [6][8] Regulatory Environment - The implementation of new regulations governing internet lending has prompted a shift in the competitive landscape, with Ctrip Finance being listed among the approved platform operators for consumer finance companies [6][7] - The new regulations also clarify the cost structure for platform services, which may impact the pricing strategies of various players in the mortgage loan market [6][9] Competitive Landscape - The mortgage loan service is primarily supported by third-party intermediaries rather than traditional financial institutions, indicating a shift in how these services are delivered [4][5] - The competitive dynamics are influenced by the structural cost disadvantages faced by loan intermediaries compared to banks, which may limit their ability to attract high-quality borrowers [8][9][10]

Core Insights - The 2025 Fliggy "Double 11" Global Travel Festival has officially launched, offering a wide range of travel products with unprecedented discounts and variety compared to previous years [1] - The number of travel products participating in the event has doubled year-on-year, with significant discounts on popular packages, including flights, hotel deals, and rental cars [1][2] - Fliggy is collaborating with Taobao to distribute millions of 88VIP expansion vouchers, enhancing the purchasing power for consumers during the event [1][2] Group 1 - The travel products available during this year's "Double 11" include discounted flight cards, hotel packages, and group tours, with prices starting as low as 300 yuan for flights to destinations like Bangkok and Osaka [1] - New offerings include the Shanghai LEGO Resort's double-entry tickets starting at 349 yuan and a nationwide car rental service featuring luxury electric vehicles [1] - The event marks the first time inbound travel products are included in the "Double 11" promotions, with substantial discounts available [1] Group 2 - Fliggy's 88VIP members will enjoy more benefits this year, including exclusive discounts on hotel packages from major brands like Marriott and Hilton, with some products offering free upgrades and additional perks [2] - The official live streaming events during "Double 11" will promote special offers and exclusive deals, allowing consumers to access significant discounts and participate in live giveaways [2] - The collaboration with various travel brands aims to enhance customer experience and loyalty through accumulated points and exclusive member benefits [2]

Core Insights - Companies can achieve "breakthrough growth" even during periods of stagnation by reshaping strategies, expanding core business, reallocating resources, innovating business models, or launching new products [1][3][4] Group 1: Breakthrough Growth Characteristics - Breakthrough growth is defined as achieving sales growth at least twice that of peers over five years, followed by sustained growth above industry averages [3] - In a study of 848 global companies experiencing stagnation, 99 companies successfully overcame challenges, achieving an average total shareholder return (TSR) of nearly 20% during the initial five years of breakthrough growth [3] - Companies achieving breakthrough growth did not sacrifice profitability, with an average profit margin increase of one percentage point during the initial growth phase [3] Group 2: Strategies for Achieving Breakthrough Growth - **Scale Expansion**: 45% of companies achieved breakthrough growth by increasing investment in core businesses, resulting in an average annual revenue growth of 16% and a TSR of 16% during the initial phase [5] - **Resource Reconfiguration**: 31% of companies shifted their business portfolios towards high-growth areas, achieving an average annual revenue growth of 20% and a TSR of 17% [7] - **Business Model Innovation**: 14% of companies changed their sales methods rather than the products themselves, leading to an average annual revenue growth of 20% and a TSR of 21% [9] Group 3: Examples of Successful Companies - United Rentals expanded its scale through a significant acquisition during the post-financial crisis, achieving a 68% TSR in the five years following the acquisition [6] - Constellation Brands shifted focus to the growing Mexican beer market, resulting in a twofold sales increase over ten years and a 45% TSR during the breakthrough growth phase [8] - Nintendo successfully innovated with the launch of the Switch console, achieving a 49% compound annual growth rate in revenue and a TSR exceeding 30% over five years [12] Group 4: Transformative Actions During Crisis - Companies often find opportunities for breakthrough growth during crises, with 36% of successful companies facing significant demand shifts [14] - External pressures, such as investor demands or market disruptions, can catalyze transformative actions, with two-thirds of breakthrough growth companies experiencing activist investor pressure prior to their growth phase [15] Group 5: Steps to Achieve Breakthrough Growth - **Choose the Right Strategy**: Companies must assess their current situation and select strategies that align with their strengths and market conditions [16] - **Focus Beyond Growth**: Successful companies adjust their cost structures and organizational processes to support growth initiatives [17] - **Capitalize on Crisis Opportunities**: Leaders should maintain focus on opportunities during crises to drive fundamental changes [18]