多数板块过半披露，旅游景区业绩回暖 从披露率来看：除专业服务板块外其他子板块披露率过半，其中体育板块2家上市公司均已披露业绩预 告。从预盈率来看：旅游及景区板块业绩逐渐回暖，13家已披露业绩预告的上市公司中有8家预计盈 利；专业服务板块表现稳健，预盈率过半；其余板块表现不佳，体育板块上市公司均预计亏损。从子板 块预告类型占比来看，旅游及景区业绩持续承压，但行业回暖呈现积极信号，扭亏为盈的公司占比由 8%大幅提升至23%；酒店餐饮业绩向好，2家公司预增，亏损占比下降；专业服务稳中向好，略增占比 提升，其余类型占比变化不大；教育板块业绩表现不佳，10家公司中7家持续亏损，1家首次亏损。 风险因素：自然灾害和安全事故风险，政策风险，宏观经济不及预期风险，统计偏误风险。 截至2026年2月15日，社服板块共有42家上市公司发布2025年业绩预告，行业披露率为49%，整体预盈 率为45%，在消费八大行业中排行第六。我国消费结构正从商品消费主导转向商品与服务消费并重，以 体验为核心的服务消费有望成为主要增长引擎。 披露率近半，业绩整体承压 截至2026年2月15日，社会服务行业共计85家A股公司，已有42家发布业绩预告， ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [5][33] Core Insights - As of February 15, 2026, 42 out of 85 listed companies in the social services sector have released their 2025 earnings forecasts, resulting in a disclosure rate of 49%. The overall pre-profit rate for the sector is 45%, ranking sixth among eight major consumer sectors. The consumption structure in China is shifting from goods to a balanced focus on both goods and services, with experience-based service consumption expected to be a major growth driver. For 2026, stable consumer policy guidance is anticipated, but recovery in the fundamentals will take time due to adjustments in household balance sheets. The first half of 2026 is expected to present mainly structural opportunities [2][3][30]. Summary by Sections Disclosure and Performance - The social services sector has a disclosure rate of 49%, ranking fifth among eight major consumer sectors. Among the 42 companies that have released forecasts, only 19 are expected to be profitable, leading to a pre-profit rate of 45%, which is the sixth highest among consumer sectors. Compared to 2024, the performance of the social services sector is under pressure, with only 14% of companies expected to see year-on-year profit growth, a decrease of 4% from the previous year. The proportion of companies turning losses into profits and those continuing to incur losses has increased to 10% and 48%, respectively, with nearly half of the companies continuing to report losses [3][11][30]. Subsector Performance - Most subsectors have a disclosure rate exceeding 50%, with the tourism and scenic spots sector showing signs of recovery. Among 13 companies that have disclosed forecasts in this sector, 8 are expected to be profitable. The professional services sector remains stable with over half expected to be profitable, while the sports sector is expected to incur losses. The tourism and scenic spots sector continues to face pressure, but there are positive signals of recovery, with the proportion of companies turning losses into profits increasing from 8% to 23%. The hotel and restaurant sector is performing well, with two companies expecting profit increases and a decrease in loss ratios. The education sector, however, is underperforming, with 7 out of 10 companies continuing to report losses [4][15][16][30]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies in the travel chain sector that will benefit from the implementation of the spring and autumn holiday system and the gradual recovery of consumer confidence. Additionally, attention should be given to leading chain restaurants that are in a critical phase of scaling up and increasing market share, as well as the early-stage value of emerging experience-based sectors such as sports events and concerts [2][30].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [50]. Core Insights - The upcoming Spring Festival holiday, lasting 9 days, is expected to significantly boost travel demand, leading to high market activity in the travel and tourism sector [4][43]. - The social service sector experienced a decline of 3.44% in the past two trading weeks, ranking 24th among 31 industries in the Shenwan classification [13][21]. - The travel market is anticipated to reach a historical peak with an estimated 9.5 billion people traveling during the Spring Festival, driven by various factors including extended holiday periods and increased domestic travel [33][38]. Summary by Sections Market Review & Industry Dynamics - The social service sector's performance was below the market average, with a 3.44% decline compared to a 1.71% drop in the Shanghai Composite Index [13][21]. - The hotel and catering sub-sector saw a slight increase of 0.64%, while other sub-sectors like education and professional services experienced declines of 6.26% and 5.25%, respectively [17][20]. Investment Recommendations - Companies with strong growth potential in the travel chain and related industries include Tongcheng Travel, Huangshan Tourism, and Lijiang Shares, among others [4][43]. - Hotel brands such as Jinjiang Hotels and ShouLai Hotels are expected to benefit from the recovery in business travel and increased market share [4][43]. - The recovery of cross-border travel is likely to boost airport duty-free sales, with recommendations to focus on China Duty Free Group and Wangfujing [4][43]. Company Dynamics & Announcements - Notable company announcements include China Travel Service forecasting a revenue of 11.339 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a 13.88% year-on-year increase, while other companies like Zhongxin Tourism and Fengshang Culture are expecting significant declines in net profits [37][38]. - The duty-free shopping market in Hainan saw a 44.8% year-on-year increase in January 2026, indicating a strong recovery in consumer spending [30][31]. Travel Data Tracking - The domestic travel market shows positive trends, with a significant increase in hotel bookings and flight reservations during the Spring Festival period [30][31]. - The international flight volume has recovered to 85.59% of the 2019 levels, indicating a steady recovery in the travel sector [21][38].

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 01 25 年 月 日 社会服务 出行链热度攀升，政策+需求延续出游高景气 本周出行链表现较好。本周社会服务指数涨 3.20%，跑赢上证综指 2.37 个百分点，板块涨幅前 10 标的中，出行链个股过半。其中，三峡旅游 +18.73%、九华旅游+10.89%、大连圣亚+6.01%、祥源文旅+5.44%、锦 江酒店+5.18%、首旅酒店+4.67%。 政策端：服务消费利好政策持续出台。从 2025 年法定节假日增加 2 天， 到各类政策文件提及保障休息休假权益、优化学生假期安排、落实带薪错 峰休假、大力发展体育旅游产业、鼓励基层工会每年最多可开展 4 次春秋 游活动等表述，均体现出政策端对 出行链等文体旅消费的鼓励。1 月 22 日，苏州市十七届人大五次会议上，政府工作报告明确 2026 年将推行中 小学春秋假。1 月 1 日起，面向中度以上失能老年人发放养老服务消费补 贴的政策在全国正式实施。我们预计，以补贴形式利好出行链的服务消费 政策仍有望出台。 需求端：出游热点时段连续。当前学生寒假来临，2 月春节临近，3 月全 国两会召开，4 月中小学春 ...

Group 1: Tourism Industry - The tourism market is expected to grow by over 10% in 2025, driven by the continuous release of leisure travel demand and the rise of experiential consumption [1] - Domestic tourism revenue and visitor numbers are projected to increase by 12% and 18% year-on-year in Q1-Q3 2025, respectively [1] - Recommended stocks in the tourism industry include China Duty Free Group, Jin Jiang Hotels, ShouLai Hotels, Tongcheng Travel, and Trip.com Group [1] Group 2: Restaurant Industry - Offline consumption is gradually recovering, with domestic restaurant revenue reaching 519.9 billion and 605.7 billion yuan in October and November 2025, showing year-on-year growth of 4.99% and 4.40% [2] - The recovery of leading restaurant companies is faster than the industry average, with a focus on stocks like Green Tea Group and Haidilao [2] Group 3: Tea Beverage Industry - Since Q4 2025, same-store sales for leading tea brands like Gu Ming and Hu Shang A Yi have continued to grow at a high rate of 15-20%, aided by delivery subsidies and brand expansion into coffee and breakfast categories [3] - Despite a slight decrease in delivery subsidies, leading brands are accelerating their expansion, highlighting the advantages of top brands [3] Group 4: Online Travel Agency (OTA) Industry - The recovery of travel demand is ongoing, with OTA performance improving due to increased domestic leisure travel demand, hotel supply growth, and rising online penetration [4] - The performance of OTAs is expected to remain stable with long-term growth potential, particularly with the high growth in outbound travel [4] - Recommended stocks in the OTA sector include Trip.com Group and Tongcheng Travel [4] Group 5: Hotel Industry - In Q4 2025, hotel room supply is expected to grow by 6-8% year-on-year, with RevPAR remaining stable compared to 2024, benefiting from increased holiday traffic and low base effects [5] - Leading hotel companies are expected to have significant earnings elasticity in a cyclical environment, with recommendations for Jin Jiang Hotels and ShouLai Hotels [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the social services industry, expecting it to perform better than the market index over the next 6-12 months [1]. Core Insights - The social services sector saw a 3.96% increase in the first two trading weeks of 2026, ranking 15th among 31 industries in the Shenwan classification. This performance outpaced the CSI 300 index by 1.77 percentage points [1][12]. - The New Year's holiday travel data showed positive trends, with 142 million domestic trips taken, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%, and total spending reaching 84.789 billion yuan, up 6.3% year-on-year [1][4]. - The report highlights the expectation for continued high demand in the travel sector, particularly with the upcoming Spring Festival holiday [4]. Summary by Sections Market Review & Industry Dynamics - The social services sector's performance was strong, with notable increases in sub-sectors such as education (+7.45%), professional services (+6.37%), and tourism retail (+3.77%) [12][16]. - Domestic air travel saw a total of 104,558 flights during the holiday period, a 1.99% increase from the previous week and 108.86% of the 2019 level [1][4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong growth potential in the travel chain and related industries, including Tongcheng Travel, Huangshan Tourism, and Lijiang Shares, among others [4]. - It also recommends hotel brands like Jinjiang Hotels and ShouLai Hotels, which are expected to benefit from the recovery in business travel and increased market share [4]. Company Dynamics & Announcements - The report notes significant growth in the Hainan duty-free shopping market, with sales exceeding 1.21 billion yuan during the first week of January, marking an 88% year-on-year increase [28]. - The report mentions that the domestic hotel market is expected to see a price drop of over 50% compared to the upcoming Spring Festival holiday, indicating a favorable environment for travelers [28]. Travel Data Tracking - The report indicates that the recovery of business travel is nearly complete, with ongoing policy relaxations for inbound and outbound travel, including the expansion of visa-free entry for several countries [34].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosheng Securities emphasizes the importance of the Hainan sector and the elasticity of sub-sectors during the Spring Festival peak season in the short term, while mid-term prospects focus on new consumption, growth potential, transformation reforms, overseas expansion, and favorable policies. Group 1: Short-term Focus - The Hainan sector is highlighted due to the impact of the closure policy and the upcoming consumption peak season, with recommendations to focus on duty-free (supported by policies and improving fundamentals), cross-border e-commerce (Black Friday and Christmas promotions), certain scenic spots (ice and snow economy), supermarkets, and gold jewelry during the Spring Festival [1] - The cyclical sectors such as duty-free, hotels, and catering have shown month-on-month improvements, suggesting continued observation and validation [1] Group 2: Mid-term Outlook - By 2026, the report suggests maintaining focus on overseas expansion, particularly on leading brands, while also looking at innovative and transformative sub-sectors within the domestic consumption field, such as new cultural tourism and new retail [1] Group 3: Policy Impact - The joint issuance of the "Opinions" by various government bodies encourages grassroots unions to conduct up to four spring and autumn travel activities annually, and to support the purchase of annual tickets for scenic spots and the distribution of cultural tourism consumption vouchers [2] - The "Opinions" aim to expand the scale of employee cultural and sports activities, enhance cultural supply, and optimize the structure of sports development, thereby promoting employee consumption [2] Group 4: Consumption Trends - Data from Qunar indicates that during the autumn holiday in November 2025, ticket bookings in Sichuan province increased by 3.4 times year-on-year, with several popular scenic spots seeing ticket sales rise by over 100% [3] - During the snow holiday, hotel bookings in the Altay region increased by 30% year-on-year, and the search volume for "Altay skiing" rose by 43% [3] Group 5: Future Opportunities - The increase in statutory holidays and various policy documents promoting vacation rights and optimizing student holiday arrangements are expected to significantly boost cultural and sports consumption, creating new development opportunities for sectors such as duty-free, hotels, tourism, and sports [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's performance in the coming months [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights the encouragement of travel and cultural consumption through policies aimed at enhancing employee leisure activities, which is expected to boost the travel and cultural sectors significantly [2][4]. - The introduction of additional public holidays and policies supporting paid leave is anticipated to stimulate cultural and tourism consumption, particularly during traditionally low seasons [4]. - Data from travel platforms indicates a substantial increase in ticket bookings during recent holiday periods, showcasing a growing consumer interest in travel and leisure activities [3]. Summary by Sections Policy Initiatives - The report discusses the issuance of guidelines by various government bodies to promote employee cultural and sports activities, allowing for up to four organized trips per year and the distribution of cultural consumption vouchers [1][2]. Market Trends - Significant growth in ticket bookings was observed during the autumn and snow holidays, with some regions reporting increases of over 300% in ticket reservations compared to previous years [3]. - The report notes that the policy-driven encouragement of travel is likely to transform traditionally slow tourism periods into more active seasons, benefiting sectors such as duty-free, hotels, and sports events [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors with potential for growth, particularly in Hainan and during the upcoming Spring Festival, as well as sectors benefiting from new consumer trends and favorable policies [5][8]. - Specific companies are recommended for investment, including those in the duty-free, hotel, and new retail sectors, which are expected to perform well in the current market environment [8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [4]. Core Insights - The travel industry is expected to continue outperforming expectations, with a positive outlook on the travel chain including OTA (Ctrip, Tongcheng), hotels (Atour, Huazhu, Jinjiang, Shoulv), duty-free (China Duty Free), and scenic spots (Emei Mountain, Three Gorges Tourism, Changbai Mountain) [4]. - The competitive landscape has significantly improved, particularly for companies like Huatu Mountain Ding, Caibai Co., and Laopu Gold [4]. - Notable dividend stocks include Sumida, Action Education, and Chongqing Department Store [4]. - The AI+ sector shows promise with companies like Konnate Optical, Fenbi, Tianli International Holdings, Kevin Education, and Doushen Education [4]. - Oversold stocks identified include China Oriental Education, Guoquan, Gaoxin Retail, and Junting Hotel [4]. Industry Updates - In the social service industry, Sanya's duty-free sales reached 163 million yuan on January 1, 2026, marking an 83.2% year-on-year increase, indicating a strong start for duty-free sales in 2026 [4]. - Ctrip's New Year travel report indicates that domestic scenic spot ticket bookings have increased over fourfold year-on-year, with significant growth in inbound travel bookings, sparking the first consumption boom of 2026 [4]. - Tongcheng Travel's report highlights a surge in travel demand during the New Year holiday, driven by a three-day holiday and the "request 3 days off for 8 days" trend, leading to increased bookings for flights, hotels, and homestays [4]. - Retail sector updates include: - Pang Donglai Group's sales in 2025 reached 23.531 billion yuan, a 39% increase from 16.9 billion yuan in 2024 [4]. - Hema's overall revenue growth exceeded 40% in 2025, with its core formats serving over 100 million consumers [4]. - Sam's Club in China surpassed 140 billion yuan in sales in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of approximately 40% [4]. Company Announcements - Kid King announced a profit forecast for 2025, expecting a net profit attributable to shareholders of 275 million to 330 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 51.72% to 82.06% [4]. - Qingmu Technology's chairman reduced his stake by 464,100 shares, accounting for 0.50% of the company's total share capital, with a reduction price of 59.68 yuan [4].

Core Viewpoint - The analysis highlights a mixed outlook for the transportation and logistics sectors, with short-term adjustments in stock prices but long-term optimism driven by demand catalysts and industry recovery [2][3][4]. Shipping Industry - Dry bulk shipping stocks have experienced a rapid price correction after a previous surge, primarily influenced by the implementation of the 301 Act and a cooling sentiment in the Fujian region [2]. - The shipping industry is expected to benefit from three demand catalysts: the commissioning of the West Mangdu project altering iron ore shipping dynamics, potential Fed rate cuts boosting commodity demand, and post-war reconstruction in Ukraine increasing bulk shipping needs [2]. - The BDI index increased by 7.1% to 2,275 points, driven by the release of iron ore cargoes in December [3][7]. Passenger Transport - Domestic passenger traffic showed a 5% year-on-year increase, while international passenger traffic rose by 17% [2]. - The average domestic passenger load factor improved by 2.0 percentage points, and international load factor increased by 3.5 percentage points [2]. - The outlook for the passenger transport sector remains positive, with expectations of revenue improvement as demand gradually recovers [2][7]. Logistics Sector - The volume of postal express deliveries rose by 8.9% year-on-year, reaching 4.42 billion pieces [4]. - Air freight prices have shown a positive year-on-year change, with indices reflecting increases of 3.6% to 4.2% [4][8]. - The logistics sector is expected to benefit from improved export expectations and a focus on absolute return opportunities, particularly for companies like SF Express and China Foreign Trade [4][8]. Highway Tolling - The pricing of highway tolls is influenced by local government decisions, with recent increases driven by construction costs and regional debt pressures [5][6]. - Despite the push for toll increases in some regions, the overall trend may lean towards maintaining or reducing tolls to attract freight traffic, complicating large-scale toll hikes nationwide [6].