Group 1 - The Hong Kong shipping stocks are generally declining, with notable drops in share prices [1] - Orient Overseas International (00316.HK) decreased by 3.72%, trading at HKD 121.7 [1] - Seaspan Corporation (01308.HK) fell by 2.93%, with shares priced at HKD 26.5 [1] - China COSCO Shipping Holdings (01919.HK) saw a decline of 2.77%, with shares at HKD 13.34 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The shipping sector is experiencing a downturn, with major companies like Orient Overseas International, Seaspan Corporation, and China COSCO Shipping Corporation seeing declines in their stock prices due to the anticipated impact of increased shipping capacity and falling freight rates following the resumption of routes through the Red Sea and Suez Canal by Maersk [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - Orient Overseas International (00316) shares fell by 3.72%, trading at 121.7 HKD [1] - Seaspan Corporation (01308) shares decreased by 2.93%, trading at 26.5 HKD [1] - China COSCO Shipping Corporation (601919) (01919) shares dropped by 2.77%, trading at 13.34 HKD [1] Group 2: Industry Developments - Maersk announced on January 15 that it will resume navigation through the Red Sea and Suez Canal as the security situation in the region stabilizes, marking a significant step towards normalcy in the shipping industry after two years of disruptions caused by Houthi attacks [1] - The return of vessels to the shorter Suez route is expected to increase shipping capacity by 7% to 8%, leading to downward pressure on freight rates [1] Group 3: Freight Rate Predictions - HSBC Global Research forecasts that freight rates could decline by 9% to 16% this year, assuming that disruptions in Red Sea shipping continue at least until mid-year [1] - The research indicates that there are downward risks to the current freight rate predictions [1]

Group 1 - The shipping sector is experiencing a general decline, with notable drops in stock prices for companies such as Orient Overseas International (00316) down 3.72% to HKD 121.7, Seaspan Corporation (01308) down 2.93% to HKD 26.5, and China COSCO Shipping Corporation (01919) down 2.77% to HKD 13.34 [1] - Danish shipping giant Maersk announced on January 15 that it will resume navigation through the Red Sea and Suez Canal as the security situation in the region stabilizes, marking a significant step towards normalcy in the shipping industry after two years of disruptions caused by Houthi attacks on vessels [1] - Market analysts predict that the return of vessels to the shorter Suez route may exert downward pressure on freight rates, with HSBC Global Research estimating a 7% to 8% increase in capacity, leading to a projected decline in freight rates by 9% to 16% this year [1]

1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Spot prices have shown some weakness, and the valuation of the 02 contract is gradually becoming clear. The cancellation of VAT export tax rebates for products like photovoltaics may disrupt the off - season nature of the 04 contract, and the recent volatility of the 04 contract is expected to increase. Maersk's attempt to resume navigation through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal will affect the expectations of more distant contracts [5][6][7] - The shipping industry is taking an important step towards recovery as Maersk resumes navigation through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal after two - year disruptions to global maritime trade caused by Houthi attacks [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Price - As of January 15, 2026, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European route futures was 61,764.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 46,912.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts were 1719.00, 1202.70, 1421.80, 1524.90, 1111.00, and 1351.00 respectively [8] 3.2 Spot Price - Online quotes: For example, Gemini Cooperation's Maersk Shanghai - Rotterdam WEEK4 price is $1695/2730, WEEK5 is $1510/2420; HPL's January second - half shipping schedule is $1585/2535, February first - half is $1585/2535. Many other shipping companies' quotes are also provided [1][2][3] - The current estimated first - phase delivery settlement price corresponds to a spot price of approximately $2700 - 2800/FEU (initially estimated to be around 1900 points). The second - phase corresponds to an SCFIS preliminary estimate of $2500 - 2600/FEU. The final - phase index is currently unclear. If Maersk's WEEK6 price drops to $2200/FEU, the final February contract delivery settlement price may be around 1700 points [6] 3.3 Container Ship Capacity Supply - Static supply: As of December 31, 2025, 268 container ships with a total capacity of 2.155 million TEU were delivered in 2025. The delivery expectations for different ship sizes from 2026 - 2029 are provided. Overall, the delivery pressure of ultra - large ships in 2026 is relatively small, while the annual delivery volume of ships over 17000+TEU in 2027, 2028, and 2029 exceeds 40 ships [4] - Dynamic supply: The monthly average weekly capacity in January was 328,400 TEU, in February was 277,300 TEU, and in March was 281,600 TEU. February had 4 TBNs and 6 blank sailings, and March had 4 blank sailings and 5 TBNs [5] 3.4 Supply Chain - Maersk will resume navigation through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal after the security situation stabilizes in the region, and will restart an independently - operated route service MECL on January 26, with the first - voyage ship departing from Salalah Port in Oman [3] 3.5 Demand and European Economy - The cancellation of VAT export tax rebates for products like photovoltaics may disrupt the shipping rhythm of related industries, further affecting shipping companies' pricing strategies. It is necessary to monitor whether the cargo volume from the Far East to Europe in February and March can increase significantly and whether the actual freight rates will be stronger than usual [7]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 高聪 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation：马士基上海-鹿特丹WEEK4价格1695/2730，WEEK5价格1510/2420；HPL 1月下半 月船期报价1585/2535，2月上半月船期报价1585/2535． MSC+Premier Alliance：MSC 1月下半月船期报价1580/2640；ONE 1月下半月船期报价1680/2635，2月 上半月船期报价1680/2635；HMM上海-鹿特丹1月下半月船期报价1433/2436． Ocean Alliance：CMA 上海-鹿特丹1月下半月船期报价1859/3293，2月份船期价格1859/3293；EMC1月 下半月船期报价3030-3130美元/FEU；OOCL 1月上半月份船期报价2580-2630美元/FEU。 地缘端：丹麦航运巨头马士基（Maersk）当地时间周四表示，在该地区安全形势趋于稳定后，将恢复通 过红海和苏伊士运河的航行，但仍将密切关注中东地区的安全局势。这标志着在也门胡塞武装袭击船只 导致全球海运贸易持续两年 ...

截至目前，赣江高等级航道里程已达572公里，千吨级及以上生产性泊位增加至120个，港口年设计通过 能力提升至1.13亿吨。 "十四五"期间航运建设项目有效提升了赣江整体通航能力，接下来将持续加大投入，推进赣江龙头山枢 纽二线船闸、新干至南昌二级航道提升工程等重点项目，提升江西大宗物资长距离运输体系的效能，促 进港口吞吐量进一步增长，预计2026年赣江沿线港口全年货物吞吐量将在2025年基础上再提升10%。 （央视新闻） 据江西省交通运输厅信息，2025年赣江沿线港口全年完成货物吞吐量达1.19亿吨，同比增长20.9%，首 次突破1亿吨大关，创历史新高。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Bohai Ferry's stock price increased by 0.76% on January 15, with a trading volume of 41.93 million yuan, indicating a stable market performance [1] Financing Summary - On January 15, Bohai Ferry had a financing buy amount of 3.28 million yuan and a financing repayment of 6.89 million yuan, resulting in a net financing buy of -3.61 million yuan [1] - The total financing and securities balance for Bohai Ferry reached 147 million yuan, accounting for 3.35% of its market capitalization, which is above the 80th percentile of the past year [1] - In terms of securities lending, 100 shares were repaid while 1,700 shares were sold, with a selling amount of 15,900 yuan, and the securities lending balance was 97,000 yuan, below the 40th percentile of the past year [1] Business Performance - As of December 31, Bohai Ferry had 26,800 shareholders, an increase of 2.07% from the previous period, while the average circulating shares per person decreased by 2.03% to 17,536 shares [2] - For the period from January to September 2025, Bohai Ferry reported a revenue of 1.428 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.07%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 272 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 5.68% year-on-year [2] Dividend Information - Since its A-share listing, Bohai Ferry has distributed a total of 2.122 billion yuan in dividends, with 924 million yuan distributed over the past three years [3] Institutional Holdings - As of September 30, 2025, among the top ten circulating shareholders, Guangfa Multi-Factor Mixed Fund increased its holdings by 3.5247 million shares to 9.5246 million shares, while Guangfa Steady Strategy Mixed Fund increased its holdings by 2.1412 million shares to 4.8949 million shares [3] - Guotai Junan Securities became a new shareholder with 4 million shares, while E Fund Hong Kong Stock Connect Dividend Mixed Fund also entered the top ten shareholders with 3.2471 million shares [3]

Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: January 16, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Core Viewpoints - In the spot market, the price increase in early January was well - implemented. The SCFIS index rebounded above 1900 points on Monday, rising 8.9% to 1956.39 points. However, shipping companies recently lowered their quotes for late January. After the peak shipping season, they may cut prices to attract cargo, and the peak of spot prices may be approaching [8]. - This week, the index fluctuated greatly. The rush for tax refunds and the escalation of the Red Sea situation, which hit the resumption of shipping, brought significant disturbances. The short - term bullish factors may be difficult to disprove, and sentiment may support the contracts to run strongly [8]. Content Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot Market: The price increase in early January was well - implemented. The SCFIS index rose 8.9% to 1956.39 points on Monday. Shipping companies are lowering quotes for late January, and the peak of spot prices may appear after the peak shipping season [8]. - Futures Market: The index fluctuated greatly this week. The 04 contract for the off - season, which had previously factored in the information of the Red Sea shipping resumption, rebounded significantly. Short - term bullish sentiment may support the contracts to run strongly [8]. 2. Industry News - Overall Market: From January 5th to 9th, the China export container shipping market was generally stable, with different routes showing differentiated trends [9]. - Economic Data: China's official comprehensive PMI in December 2025 was 50.7, up 1 percentage point month - on - month. The eurozone's unemployment rate in November 2025 dropped to 6.3%. US private - sector employment increased by 41,000 in December [9][10]. - Route Prices: On January 9th, the Shanghai - Europe basic port market freight rate increased by 1.7%, the Shanghai - Mediterranean basic port market freight rate increased by 2.8%, the Shanghai - US West basic port market freight rate increased by 1.4%, and the Shanghai - US East basic port market freight rate increased by 3.1% [9][10]. - Geopolitical Events: On January 12, 2026, the US and the UK launched a large - scale military strike against the Houthi rebels in Yemen. The Houthi rebels warned of a strong response if Saudi Arabia took military action [10]. - Shipping Company Policies: In December 2025, many shipping companies such as MSC and CMA CGM announced price increases for multiple international routes. There were uncertainties about Maersk's resumption of Red Sea - Suez Canal navigation [10]. 3. Data Overview - Container Shipping Spot Prices: From January 5th to 12th, 2026, the SCFIS for the European route increased by 8.9% to 1956.39 points, and the SCFIS for the US West route increased by 5.9% to 1323.98 points [12]. - Container Shipping Index (European Route) Futures Market: Provided trading data for EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2612 contracts on January 15th, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, etc. [6] - Shipping - Related Data Charts: Included charts of European container ship capacity, global container ship orders on hand, and various freight rates [18][21]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For the 02 contract, it is gradually following the delivery logic, and its subsequent performance will be affected by the spot market. With a neutral valuation currently, it is not recommended to enter the market. [3] - For the 04 contract, attention should be paid to the spot market and actual rush - shipping situations. The expected decline in Week 5 when MSK opens bookings may suppress the futures market, but as freight rates fall, the scale of rush - shipping may increase, potentially weakening the downward slope in March. Its valuation fluctuates within a reasonable range, and it is advisable to watch for possible corrective market trends. [3] - The adjustment of export tax rebates is negative for far - month contracts. However, far - month contracts are greatly affected by geopolitical factors. Overall, it is still recommended to focus on shorting the 10 - contract on rallies. [3] Summary by Related Content Market Data of Contracts - EC2602 closed at 1719.0 with a 0.06% increase, trading volume of 2673, and an open interest of 8878 with a decrease of 1583. [2] - EC2604 closed at 1202.7 with a 2.26% decrease, trading volume of 40524, and an open interest of 40832 with an increase of 788. [2] - EC2606 closed at 1421.8 with a 0.16% decrease, trading volume of 2189, and an open interest of 3048 with a decrease of 82. [2] - EC2608 closed at 1524.9 with a 0.50% decrease, trading volume of 153, and an open interest of 1321 with an increase of 15. [2] - EC2610 closed at 1111.0 with a 0.63% decrease, trading volume of 1331, and an open interest of 7581 with a decrease of 44. [2] - The spread of EC2502 - 2604 was 516.3, with a day - on - day increase of 28.8 and a week - on - week decrease of 69.0. [2] - The spread of EC2504 - 2606 was - 219.1, with a day - on - day decrease of 25.5 and a week - on - week increase of 62.2. [2] Index Data - The SCFIS (European Line) index on January 12, 2026, was 1956.39 points, with an 8.94% increase from the previous period and a 3.05% increase in the previous period. [2] - The SCFI (European Line) index on January 9, 2026, was 1719 dollars/TEU, with a 1.72% increase from the previous available data. [2] News and Market Conditions - On January 15, Hamas officials stated they were ready to transfer the administrative power of the Gaza Strip to a technical - bureaucrat committee. [4] - On January 15, Maersk announced the resumption of the Suez Canal route for its MECL service due to improved stability in the Red Sea. [4] Shipping Company Quotations - In Week 3, MSK's booking price was 2600 dollars, other alliances had small declines, with a central price of 2750 dollars, equivalent to about 1930 points on the futures market. [7] - In Week 4, MSK's booking price was 2700 dollars, other alliances remained stable, with a central price of 2750 dollars, equivalent to about 1930 points on the futures market. [7] - In Week 5, MSK's booking price was 2400 dollars (a 300 - dollar decrease from the previous week), PA was 2200 dollars, MSC was 2600 dollars, OA was 2700 dollars. The overall central price was 2500 - 2600 dollars, equivalent to 1750 - 1820 points on the futures market. [7]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 2026/1/16 | | 运价指数 | 上海出口集装箱运价 综合指数SCFI | 中国出口集装箱运价 指数CCFI | SCFI-美西 | SCFIS-美西 | SCFI-美东 | SCFI-西北欧 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 業 | 现值 | 1647 | 1195 | 2218 | 1323 | 3128 | 1719 | | | 前値 | 1656 | 1147 | 2188 | 1250 | 3033 | 1690 | | 运 | 涨跌幅 | -0.54% | 4.21% | 1.37% | 5.84% | 3.13% | 1.72% | | 발 TE | | SCFIS-西北欧 | SCFI-地中海 | | | | | | 数 | | | | | | | | | | 现值 | 1956 | 3232 | | | | | | | 前値 | 1795 | 3143 | | | | | | | 涨跌幅 | 8.97% | 2.83% | | | | | tel Hol 新 iii ...