Core Viewpoint - In the first half of 2025, China National Heavy Duty Truck Group (China National Heavy Truck) reported a revenue of 50.878 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.427 billion yuan, also up 4%, indicating a dual increase in revenue and profit [2]. Group 1: Industry Opportunities and Market Performance - The commercial vehicle sector is experiencing a new round of growth driven by the "old-for-new" policy, alongside a surge in demand for new energy vehicles and exports, which are strengthening the industry's growth engine [3]. - In the first half of 2025, the heavy truck sales in the industry reached 539,200 units, and light truck sales reached 1,035,800 units, representing year-on-year growth of 6.88% and 6.69% respectively [3]. - China National Heavy Truck sold 148,800 heavy trucks in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6.75%, achieving a market share of 27.6%, which is an increase of 0.4 percentage points compared to the entire year of 2024, maintaining its leading position in the industry for four consecutive years [3]. Group 2: Export Performance - In the first half of 2025, the heavy truck export market remained strong, with a total export volume of 155,600 units, a year-on-year increase of 2.69%. China National Heavy Truck achieved an export volume of 69,000 units, setting a historical record for the same period, with an export market share of 44.34%, maintaining its position as the leader in China's heavy truck industry for twenty consecutive years [5]. - The company has seen significant growth in traditional markets, with sales in Africa increasing by 22% and in Vietnam by 68%, while also investing in high-end and strategic markets such as Saudi Arabia and Morocco [5]. Group 3: New Energy Vehicle Development - The new energy heavy truck sector experienced explosive growth in the first half of 2025, with sales increasing by 185.9% year-on-year and market penetration rising to 22.8%, making it the most dynamic growth area in the commercial vehicle sector [6]. - China National Heavy Truck sold 9,376 new energy heavy trucks in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 220.3%, significantly outpacing industry growth [6]. - The company offers a comprehensive range of new energy products and is actively developing next-generation heavy and light truck platforms, focusing on energy consumption optimization and overall quality improvement [6].

Core Viewpoint - China National Heavy Duty Truck Group (China National Heavy Duty Truck) reported a revenue of 50.878 billion yuan and a net profit of 3.427 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 4.2% and 4% respectively, indicating a dual growth in revenue and profit [1] Group 1: Industry Opportunities and Performance - The commercial vehicle sector is experiencing a new wave of growth driven by the "old-for-new" policy, alongside a surge in the new energy market and strong export demand, reinforcing the industry's growth engine [3] - In the first half of 2025, the heavy truck sales reached 539,200 units and light truck sales reached 1,035,800 units, with year-on-year growth of 6.88% and 6.69% respectively [3] - China National Heavy Duty Truck sold 148,800 heavy trucks in the first half of 2025, achieving a year-on-year growth of 6.75% and capturing a market share of 27.6%, maintaining its position as the industry leader for four consecutive years [3] Group 2: Export Performance - In the first half of 2025, the heavy truck export market remained robust, with a total export volume of 155,600 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.69% [5] - China National Heavy Duty Truck achieved a record high in heavy truck exports with 69,000 units, holding a market share of 44.34%, and has been the leader in China's heavy truck industry for twenty consecutive years [5] - The company saw significant sales growth in Africa (22% year-on-year) and Vietnam (68% year-on-year), while also expanding its presence in high-end and strategic markets like Saudi Arabia and Morocco [5] Group 3: New Energy Sector Growth - The new energy heavy truck sector experienced explosive growth in the first half of 2025, with sales increasing by 185.9% and market penetration reaching 22.8% [7] - China National Heavy Duty Truck sold 9,376 new energy heavy trucks, representing a year-on-year growth of 220.3%, significantly outpacing industry growth [7] - The company offers a comprehensive range of new energy products and is focused on developing next-generation heavy and light truck platforms, enhancing energy efficiency and comfort, and building a leading brand in new energy technology [7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the benchmark by more than 5% in the next six months [68]. Core Viewpoints - July sales data shows that production, wholesale, and retail volumes met expectations, while exports exceeded expectations [5][7]. - The market structure indicates a recovery in domestic sales shares for Dongfeng and Foton, while Weichai's market share has declined [6][8]. - The overall industry performance in July was strong, with significant year-on-year growth in production and sales figures [7][20]. Summary by Sections Sales Tracking - In July, wholesale sales of heavy trucks reached 85,000 units, with year-on-year growth of 45.6% and a month-on-month decline of 13.3%, aligning with expectations [4]. - Terminal sales for July were 64,000 units, showing a year-on-year increase of 38.3% and a month-on-month decrease of 7.2%, also meeting expectations [4]. - Export sales for July were 27,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 25.4% and a month-on-month decline of 7.5%, surpassing expectations [4][20]. - The current total industry inventory stands at 133,000 units, with a decrease of 1,040 units in July, indicating a reasonable inventory level [21]. Market Structure Tracking - The market share for terminal sales in July was as follows: Jiefang 21.3%, Dongfeng 21.8%, Heavy Truck 15.9%, Shaanxi Heavy Truck 10.3%, and Foton 13.8% [6][41]. - In terms of export market share, Heavy Truck led with 46.9%, followed by Jiefang 15.9% and Dongfeng 9.9% [43]. - The penetration rate for new energy heavy trucks was 25.8%, while the penetration rate for natural gas heavy trucks was 21.8%, both showing variations compared to previous periods [7][29]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends stocks such as China National Heavy Duty Truck and Weichai Power, highlighting the performance improvement potential of Jiefang and Foton [8][63].

证券研究报告 | 2025年08月27日 宇通客车（600066.SH） 优于大市 盈利能力稳中有增，二季度净利润同比增长 16% 出口业务持续放量，二季度净利润同比增长 16%。2025 年上半年宇通客车实 现销量 21321 辆，同比+3.7%，营业收入 161.3 亿元，基本持平，归母净利 润 19.4 亿元，同比+15.6%；单季度看，宇通客车 25Q2 营收 97 亿元，同比 持平，环比+51%，归母 11.8 亿元，同比+16%，环比+56%，扣非 9.1 亿元， 同比+5%，环比+41%，整体来看，得益于国内企稳、出口业务放量、费用管 控持续等因素，宇通客车业绩持续释放。 盈利能力稳健，销量结构逐步优化。宇通客车 25Q2 毛利率 22.9%，盈利能力 稳定，同比波动主要系会计准则调整所致，25Q2 净利率 12.2%，同比+1.7pct， 预计主要系新能源出口放量带来边际贡献（25H1 宇通新能源客车出口销量 1078 辆，市场份额 14.1%，较 5 月+2.7pct）；现金流层面，25H1 宇通经营 性现金流净额 17.2 亿元，二季度现金流有所波动，预计主要系压缩对供应 商付款周期；宇通 ...

Group 1 - In July 2025, the retail sales of new energy commercial vehicles reached 71,500 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 52.15% but a month-on-month decrease of 4.30% [2] - Of the total sales, 96.35% were from pure electric commercial vehicles, amounting to 68,900 units, which is a year-on-year growth of 53.75% [2] - From January to July 2025, the cumulative retail sales of new energy commercial vehicles totaled 429,500 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 56.08% [8] Group 2 - In terms of vehicle types, new energy truck sales accounted for 43,900 units, representing 61.37% of total sales, with a year-on-year growth of 78.51% [5] - New energy bus sales reached 27,600 units, making up 38.63% of total sales, with a year-on-year increase of 23.23% [5] - Cumulatively, new energy truck sales from January to July reached 269,800 units, accounting for 62.83% of total sales, with a year-on-year growth of 98.85% [10] Group 3 - The top five companies/brands accounted for 36.49% of the total sales in July 2025, including Geely Remote, Foton Motor, SAIC-GM-Wuling, XCMG, and Shaanxi Automobile [4] - From January to July 2025, the top five companies/brands represented 37.46% of cumulative sales, which also included Geely Remote, Foton Motor, SAIC-GM-Wuling, XCMG, and Kaiyue [13]

Market Overview - The commercial vehicle sector experienced a decline of 3.75% on August 27, with Jianghuai Automobile leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3800.35, down 1.76%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12295.07, down 1.43% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Jianghuai Automobile (600418) closed at 50.02, down 6.29% with a trading volume of 1.0853 million shares and a transaction value of 561.3 million yuan [1] - Other notable declines included: - Shuguang Co. (600303) down 4.12% to 3.72 with a transaction value of 222 million yuan [1] - Dongfeng Motor (600006) down 3.67% to 7.62 with a transaction value of 827 million yuan [1] - Ankai Bus (000868) down 3.15% to 5.84 with a transaction value of 143 million yuan [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The commercial vehicle sector saw a net outflow of 1.197 billion yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 788 million yuan [1] - Specific stock capital flows included: - Yutong Bus (600066) with a net inflow of 37.46 million yuan from institutional investors [2] - JMC (000550) with a net outflow of 4.28 million yuan from institutional investors [2] - Ankai Bus (000868) had a significant retail net inflow of 18.78 million yuan despite a net outflow from institutional investors [2]

证券研究报告 宇通客车 (600066 CH) Q2 业绩稳健向上,看好 H2 增长弹性 | 华泰研究 | | 中报点评 | 投资评级(维持): | 增持 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 8 月 27 日│中国内地 | 商用车 | 目标价(人民币): | 32.86 | 公司 25H1 实现收入 161.29 亿元/yoy-1.3%，归母净利润 19.36 亿元 /yoy+15.7%；25Q2 实现收入 97.12 亿元、yoy-0.08%/qoq+51%，归母净 利 11.8 亿元、yoy+16%/qoq+56%。同时公司延续高分红策略，半年报分红 10 派 5 元（含税），25H1 分红占归母净利率 57%。我们基本维持盈利预 测，考虑公司为出口业务态势强劲/现金流充足/高股息品种，维持增持评级。 海外新能源客车出口占比提升+经营效率改善，25Q2 贡献显著利润增量 25Q2 公司归母净利润同比+16%，我们认为主要得益于公司的海外新能源 出口占比提升且经营效率提高，贡献了明显利润增量：①量：25H1 公司实 现客车销量 2.13 万辆/yoy+3 ...

Core Insights - The commercial vehicle industry is undergoing a critical transformation period characterized by deep competition, rising demand for low-end products, and the influx of new players, prompting the need for strategic shifts in business models [3][5][6] - FAW Jiefang aims to transition from a traditional vehicle manufacturer to a comprehensive solution provider focusing on the entire lifecycle of vehicles, including both traditional and new energy sources, and balancing domestic and international markets [3][5][6] Group 1: Market Challenges and Strategic Responses - The Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) challenges faced by freight operators, such as fluctuating oil prices, high maintenance costs, low vehicle residual values, and counterfeit products, are being addressed through the launch of the "Jiefang Green Movement" brand [1][3] - FAW Jiefang's strategy includes expanding into the aftermarket sector, which is projected to have a market size exceeding one trillion, with a significant business opportunity estimated in the hundreds of billions based on existing vehicle ownership [7][9] Group 2: Business Model and Growth Plans - The "Jiefang Green Movement" brand will focus on three main areas: spare parts services, remanufacturing, and vehicle refurbishment and modification, aiming to enhance the lifecycle value of commercial vehicles [9][11][15] - The company plans to achieve over 10 billion in sales within three years through a structured approach that includes product development, channel expansion, and innovative marketing strategies [16][18] Group 3: Commitment to Sustainability - FAW Jiefang is committed to defining standards for a low-carbon circular economy in the commercial vehicle sector, aligning with national policies on green manufacturing and recycling [5][9] - The establishment of the Jiefang Green Remanufacturing Technology Co., Ltd. marks a significant step in fulfilling the company's mission to lead in the green transformation of the commercial vehicle industry [9][20]

Core Viewpoint - The new energy heavy truck market in China is entering a rapid development phase, with significant growth in sales and market penetration driven by technological advancements and supportive policies [1][2]. Group 1: Market Growth and Trends - By the first half of 2025, sales of new energy heavy trucks are expected to reach 79,710 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 184.68% [1]. - Monthly penetration rates have consistently exceeded 23% for four consecutive months this year [1]. - The growth of pure electric heavy trucks is supported by policies for vehicle scrappage and increased incentives from companies, alongside reduced manufacturing costs and improved user awareness [1]. Group 2: Challenges in Infrastructure - The penetration rate of new energy heavy trucks in the medium to long-distance logistics sector is less than 0.1%, highlighting the bottleneck of charging infrastructure [2]. - Current applications of pure electric heavy trucks are mainly in short-distance and closed scenarios, with significant challenges in expanding to long-distance operations due to inadequate charging networks [2][3]. - The construction of charging and battery swap stations faces bureaucratic hurdles, requiring approvals from multiple departments, which delays infrastructure development [3]. Group 3: Technological Developments - The market shows a stable ratio of 7:3 between charging and battery swap models, indicating that both technologies have found suitable applications [8]. - The combination of battery swapping and fast charging is seen as an optimal solution, balancing efficiency and cost while facilitating battery management [8]. Group 4: Policy and Regulatory Environment - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is accelerating the formulation of national standards for battery swap safety, while financial institutions are working to reduce financing costs for battery banks [9]. - The establishment of a collaborative mechanism among vehicle manufacturers, government, and capital is advocated to enhance the efficiency of the industry [9]. Group 5: Environmental Impact and International Standards - Heavy-duty trucks contribute significantly to pollution, with pure electric heavy trucks capable of achieving a 54% reduction in carbon emissions over their lifecycle [10]. - The urgency to establish a self-sufficient standard system for battery swapping is emphasized, as international standards are currently dominated by Western countries [10].

Group 1 - The stock price of FAW Jiefang closed at 7.29 yuan on August 26, 2025, with a slight decrease of 0.01 yuan, representing a drop of 0.14% [1] - The company reported a trading volume of 264,800 hands and a transaction amount of 193 million yuan, with a total market capitalization of 35.876 billion yuan [1] - FAW Jiefang's main business includes the research, production, and sales of commercial vehicles and parts, covering a full range of products such as tractors, cargo trucks, and dump trucks [1] Group 2 - On August 26, the company officially launched the "Jiefang Green Movement" aftermarket brand in Wuxi, aiming to achieve revenue exceeding 10 billion yuan by 2028 [1] - The chairman, Li Sheng, stated that the aftermarket business will become a new growth point for the company, focusing on two core areas: spare parts services and remanufacturing [1] - The "Jiefang Green Movement" will concentrate on three business segments: spare parts services, remanufacturing, and vehicle preparation and modification, aiming to create a new ecosystem for the green development of the commercial vehicle aftermarket [1] Group 3 - On the same day, the net inflow of main funds was 7.4447 million yuan, accounting for 0.02% of the circulating market value [1] - Over the past five days, the cumulative net outflow of main funds reached 7.5622 million yuan, also accounting for 0.02% of the circulating market value [1]