证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期：2025 年 12 月 08 日 浙商早知道 2025 年 12 月 08 日 ：张延兵 执业证书编号：S1230511010020 ：021-80106048 ：zhangyanbing@stocke.com.cn 重要观点 重要点评 【浙商大消费中观策略 马莉/史凡可/陈钊】商贸零售 行业深度：TOP TOY 潮玩发展之路： IP 矩阵、全品类、 全球化——20251207 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/5 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 【浙商 ESG 祁星】专题研究：中国"双碳"政策体系继续完善，欧美气候监管转向灵活务实——20251205 【浙商金属新材料 何玉静/沈皓俊】有色金属 年度行业策略报告：供需矛盾催化升级，周期红利价值凸显—— 20251206 【浙商策略 廖静池/王大霁/高旗胜】A 股策略周报：冗余时刻还未结束，目标不变、守株待兔——20251206 【浙商固收 覃汉/沈聂萍】债券市场专题研究：本轮债市要调整多久？——20251206 浙商早报 1 重要观点 1.1 【浙商 ESG 祁星】专题研究：中国"双碳"政策体系继 ...

美国国债结束了八个月以来表现最差的一周，10年期和30年期收益率出现自4月份以来最大单周涨幅， 其中10年期收益率收于4.14%。市场抛售的主要驱动因素是相互矛盾的经济数据（尤其是劳动力市场） 以及加速至2.8%的通胀数据，这使得投资者对美联储明年将进行额外降息的预期转为怀疑和"鹰派"。此 外，美国政府本周关于美联储领导层人事变动的评论（如财政部长提出地区银行行长应有居住地要求） 加剧了市场不确定性，也对美债价格走势产生了影响。 ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong government aims to enhance its commodity market by leveraging global asset value reassessment and increasing interest in precious metals [1] - Hong Kong's financial market strengths are primarily in stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange, with a noted lack of emphasis on the commodity market [1] - The establishment of a gold central clearing system and collaboration with the Shanghai Gold Exchange are key initiatives to boost Hong Kong's precious metals market [1] Group 2 - The London Metal Exchange has approved Hong Kong as a delivery location, increasing the number of approved warehouses to 12 within nine months, with over 8,000 tons of non-ferrous metals stored [1] - This development is expected to benefit the real economy by reducing logistics costs for businesses using warehouses in Hong Kong [1] - Future plans include expanding the commodity market beyond precious metals and offering tax exemptions for goods traded through shipping to Hong Kong [1] Group 3 - Hong Kong is recognized as a prominent green financing center, particularly for bond issuance, with sustainable bond issuance projected to exceed $43 billion in 2024 [2] - The city attracts investors interested in green finance and provides issuers with opportunities to promote local economic plans, which is crucial for future investment attraction [2] - The goal is to develop Hong Kong as a "one-stop" platform to meet international investors' needs for accessing the mainland market [2]

Core Viewpoint - The China Interbank Market Dealers Association has reported the issuance statistics for debt financing instruments in October 2025, indicating a total of 903 instruments issued, amounting to 813.1 billion yuan. Group 1: Issuance Statistics - In October 2025, the interbank bond market issued 903 debt financing instruments with a total value of 813.1 billion yuan [1]. - The breakdown of the issuance includes: - Super short-term financing: 314 billion yuan - Short-term financing: 32.9 billion yuan - Medium-term notes: 373.8 billion yuan - Targeted debt financing instruments: 39.1 billion yuan - Asset-backed notes: 51.4 billion yuan [1][2]. Group 2: Monthly Issuance Data - The monthly issuance data for 2025 shows fluctuations in the number of instruments and total amounts, with October having 903 instruments issued, totaling 813.1 billion yuan [2]. - The highest issuance in terms of amount occurred in April 2025, with 1,115 instruments totaling 1,013.5 billion yuan [2]. Group 3: Innovative Products Issuance - The issuance of innovative products in October 2025 includes: - Green debt financing instruments: 22.1 billion yuan - Rural revitalization notes: 5.7 billion yuan - Asset-backed commercial papers: 12.4 billion yuan - Sustainable development-linked bonds: 1 billion yuan - Sci-tech notes/debt: 61 billion yuan [5]. Group 4: Custody Statistics - As of the end of October 2025, the custody statistics for major bond types are as follows: - Super short-term financing bonds: 1,609.5 billion yuan - Short-term financing bonds: 513.6 billion yuan - Medium-term notes: 1,271.12 billion yuan - Targeted debt financing instruments: 192.85 billion yuan - Asset-backed notes: 68.55 billion yuan [11].

Core Viewpoint - The announcement by the Traders Association on optimizing the mechanism for merger notes aims to guide funds to support corporate mergers and acquisitions effectively, enhancing the quality of service provided by the interbank bond market to the real economy [1] Group 1: Definition and Purpose - Merger notes are debt financing instruments issued by non-financial enterprises in the interbank market, with funds raised specifically for corporate merger activities [2] - Corporate mergers involve transactions that achieve actual control, consolidation, or equity participation in existing operational enterprises or assets through various means [2] Group 2: Compliance and Funding Usage - Enterprises must operate legally and have good credit status, with both parties in a merger required to comply with national macro-control and industrial policies [2] - Funds raised can be used for paying merger prices, repaying bank loans related to mergers, or replacing self-funded contributions made in the past year for mergers [2] Group 3: Fund Allocation and Restrictions - At least 50% of the raised funds must be allocated for merger transaction purposes and kept in a regulated account, with restrictions on usage for other purposes [2] - The proportion of funds used for mergers cannot exceed 70% of the transaction price, while equity funds must constitute at least 30% [2] Group 4: Disclosure Requirements - During the registration phase, enterprises must disclose selection criteria, decision-making processes, project categories, and funding usage plans for the merger targets [3] - For completed mergers, enterprises must disclose the financial impact of the transaction and the future prospects of the merged entity [3] Group 5: Reporting and Flexibility - Enterprises are required to report on the usage of raised funds and the progress of merger projects by April 30 and August 31 each year [3] - The mechanism encourages the issuance of medium to long-term merger notes to align with the long-term nature of merger activities, thereby improving liquidity risk management [3] Group 6: Investor Confidence and Legal Compliance - Enterprises are encouraged to enhance investor confidence through various clauses, including debt limits and dividend arrangements [4] - Lead underwriters must provide special due diligence reports regarding the relationship between merger parties and the use of raised funds [4] Group 7: Registration and Efficiency - Merger notes will be distinctly identified to highlight their nature, and there are provisions for changing registration to other debt instruments if mergers are canceled or significantly adjusted [5] - The registration process for issuing merger notes will be streamlined to improve efficiency, with dedicated personnel for immediate evaluation [5]

Core Viewpoint - The China Interbank Market Dealers Association has issued a notice on December 2, 2025, to optimize the mechanism for merger and acquisition (M&A) notes, aiming to enhance the efficiency of the interbank bond market in supporting the real economy and facilitating corporate mergers and acquisitions [1][2]. Group 1: Funding Flexibility and Support - The optimized M&A notes will enhance funding flexibility, prioritizing support for key sectors in M&A activities. Funds raised can be directly used for paying acquisition prices, repaying M&A loans, and can replace self-funded expenditures made for M&A activities in the past year [2][3]. - The notice emphasizes support for mergers in traditional advantageous industries, strategic emerging industries, and future industry layouts [2][4]. Group 2: Information Disclosure Mechanism - The information disclosure mechanism has been optimized to meet M&A business needs. Ongoing M&A projects may simplify or exempt the disclosure of sensitive information during the issuance phase to maintain commercial confidentiality [2][5]. - Completed projects must disclose the impact of the M&A on financial conditions and the expected synergies [5][6]. Group 3: Issuance Convenience and Innovation - M&A notes will have a separate naming and identification system to highlight their M&A attributes. A "green channel" for registration and issuance will be established to improve efficiency [3][7]. - Companies are encouraged to design flexible structures for M&A notes, including tiered structures and protective clauses to enhance investor confidence and market vitality [3][6]. Group 4: Regulatory and Compliance Requirements - Companies must comply with national macro-control and industrial policies, ensuring that both parties in the M&A meet the required standards [4][5]. - The notice outlines that at least 50% of the raised funds must be used for M&A purposes, and the remaining can be used for other business activities, but not for stock market investments [5][6].

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 ◇ 作者：钟言 ◇ 本文原载《债券》2025年11月刊 防范化解风险是金融工作永恒的主题。近日发布的《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五 年规划的建议》对防范化解金融风险作出重要部署。债券市场风险防控可从制度、技术、市场三方面着 手，筑牢体系防线，服务金融高质量发展。 一是夯实风控制度基础。健全的制度规则让风险防控有章可循、有规可依。巩固债市运行的基础制度， 以穿透监管为原则，完善市场风险监测机制。优化信息披露相关机制，压实发行人与中介机构的信息披 露责任，制定绿色、科技等重点领域信息披露标准，降低投资者与发行方之间信息不对称。强化金融机 构债券业务内控和监督，落实中介机构主体责任。适度强化违约处置和违规查处机制，畅通债务重组等 退出渠道，提高违约处置效率，对虚假披露、操纵市场、逃废债等违规行为严格执法，以制度威慑筑牢 风险防线。 二是加强数字技术赋能。大数据、人工智能等数字技术日益发展，使债市风险防控更加智能有效。深化 债市信息披露数字化转型，探索应用可扩展商业语言等数字技术，促进债市信息披露更加结构化，便利 信息披露数据在市场机构间共享利用。加强 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese government plans to finance a new economic stimulus package through a significant increase in government bond issuance, raising concerns about the balance between economic stimulus and fiscal responsibility [1][4]. Group 1: Government Bond Issuance - The Japanese government intends to issue approximately 11.7 trillion yen (about 529.9 billion RMB) in new bonds to cover the funding gap from the recently announced economic measures [1]. - The total economic strategy amounts to about 21.3 trillion yen, with the supplementary budget for fiscal year 2025 expected to include general account expenditures of around 18.3 trillion yen, marking a 27% increase from the previous year [2]. - The scale of the new bond issuance significantly exceeds the 6.7 trillion yen issued by the previous administration, indicating a high reliance on debt financing [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The Japanese yen and long-term government bonds have been subject to continued selling, with the yen stabilizing around 156 against the dollar and long-term bond yields rising [3]. - As of November 29, the yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds rose to 1.814%, while 20-year and 30-year yields also increased, reflecting market concerns over fiscal deterioration [3]. - The rise in bond yields is attributed to investor demands for higher risk premiums due to expectations of increased bond supply and signals from the Bank of Japan regarding potential interest rate hikes [3]. Group 3: Economic and Fiscal Concerns - The current government faces challenges in balancing economic stimulus with fiscal discipline, as the debt-to-GDP ratio has exceeded 260% [5]. - The aging population in Japan exacerbates social security spending pressures, raising doubts about the sustainability of tax revenue growth [5]. - If the government continues to rely on debt issuance for economic stimulation, the trend of increasing debt could undermine market confidence in Japan's fiscal health [5]. Group 4: Potential Risks and Global Impact - There are concerns that the selling of Japanese assets may persist, with the potential for Japan's bond market to become a source of global risk [7]. - If the Bank of Japan delays interest rate hikes, it could further erode confidence in Japan's fiscal and monetary policies, leading to increased selling pressure on the yen and government bonds [6]. - The potential for a reversal in yen carry trades could impact global liquidity and emerging markets, as Japan is the largest creditor nation [7].

国际清算银行（BIS）于2025年发布了一份题为《量化宽松与紧缩政策如何影响企业？》的工作论文，深入探讨了美联储资产负债表政策对美国及全球 企业融资行为与实际经济活动的影响。 该研究构建了一套新颖的、按期限划分的央行资产负债表冲击时间序列数据，覆盖多个量化宽松（QE）和量化紧缩（QT）周期，从而能够更精确地识 别政策的非预期变化及其传导机制。 研究发现，总体而言，企业在面对美联储购买国债的量化宽松政策时，并未显著增加总债务规模、资本支出或雇佣人数。 这表明，这些非常规货币政策对实体经济的直接影响有限。 然而，企业确实做出了显著的战略性财务调整。 最核心的发现是，企业会主动调整其债务的期限结构。 具体表现为：当美联储购买短期国债时，企业倾向于延长其公司债的发行期限，转向中期债券市场，形成所谓的"期限集中"现象。 这种调整使企业能够锁定更低的长期利率，从而有效降低利息支出，并积累更多现金储备。 政策的传导主要通过债券市场而非银行信贷渠道实现。 研究显示，央行购买国债对企业的银行定期贷款几乎没有统计上显著的影响，这说明政策效应并未通过银行体系大规模传导至企业贷款。 相反，投资级（IG）企业受益最为明显。 它们的中长 ...

Core Insights - China has become the largest green bond market globally, with a total issuance of $101.8 billion, representing a 92% year-on-year increase, while the global issuance decreased by 11% to $506 billion [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - The total global green bond issuance has decreased by 11% year-on-year, amounting to $506 billion as of late October [1][2] - China's green bond issuance has significantly increased by 92% year-on-year, reaching $101.8 billion, which accounts for 20% of the global market [1][2] Group 2: Market Development - The Central National Securities Registration and Clearing Company released a white paper indicating that China's green bond market is transitioning from "scale expansion" to "quality and efficiency enhancement" [1][2] - Continuous improvement in supportive policies and green finance standards is noted, along with steady enhancement in information disclosure and increasing international influence [1][2]