在全球金融市场格局持续演变的当下，韩国债券市场正释放出巨大的投资潜力，吸引着全球投资者 的目光。前不久，彭博举办了 " 探索韩国债市，把握投资机遇"研讨会，有幸邀请到 韩国企划财政 部国债科长 Keunwoo Lee先生 与彭博韩国市场专家Ilhwan Kim对话，围绕 韩国债市政策改革、 潜在机遇和热门话题 进行深入剖析。让我们一起回顾精彩瞬间！ 彭博电子交易解决方案，凭借透明高效的交易流程、更深更广的流动性、整合一体的数据与分析， 以及赋能整个交易流程的全面解决方案，助您把握市场先机！ 终端用户运行 KORE 可查看韩国债券、股票、外汇等市场概况与最新资讯，把握机遇。 非终端用户可点击 "阅读原文" 联系我们查看功能演示。 在政策改革方面，韩国政府采取了哪些举措？ Keunwoo Lee表示，韩国政府致力于打造更透明、高效、便捷的市场环境，提升韩国债券的全球 吸引力，为此采取了多种关键举措，涵盖政策改革、市场开放以及交易便利化。 他举例指出，去年，韩国预托决济院(KSD)与国际中央证券存管处(ICSD)建立连接，正式开通国 债综合账户系统，并对其运营所需的各项制度进行改进，这对于活跃的离岸交易而言意义重 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: "Fixed Income Weekly: Bond Market Investors Shift from Bullish Sentiment to Active Buying - Weekly Report on Bond Market Institutional Behavior (Week 3 of June)" [1] - Report Date: June 15, 2025 [2] - Chief Analyst: Yan Ziqi [3] - Research Assistant: Hong Ziyan [4] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Views - The bond market is experiencing a bullish and active buying trend due to three marginal changes: optimistic market sentiment, increased long - term positions and leverage by institutions, and favorable fundamental data. However, there are also three points to note, including low return odds, risks associated with extending duration, and the need to monitor signals of loose monetary policy [6]. Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Institutional Behavior Review - **Three Marginal Changes in the Bond Market** - Bond market sentiment is approaching the most optimistic level of the year [14]. - Institutions are not only bullish but also actively buying. Near the end of the half - year, the duration of medium - and long - term bond funds has increased, and funds are buying long - term bonds and increasing their purchases of medium - term notes [14]. - The overall leverage ratio of the bond market is rising and has exceeded last year's level. The liquidity in June is not tight, which has spurred institutions to increase leverage [6]. - **Three Points to Note** - In the environment of extending duration and increasing leverage, the return odds are low. The current yield curve is extremely flat, and the space for long - term bonds to reach historical lows is small [6]. - Extending duration presents both opportunities and risks. Although it is a way for institutions to seek higher returns, historical data shows that the bond market in June is often volatile [7]. - Large banks' preference for short - term bonds has become a trend. Attention should be paid to subsequent signals of loose monetary policy [16]. 1.1 Yield Curve - **Treasury Bonds**: Yields generally declined. The 1Y, 3Y, 5Y, 7Y, 10Y yields declined by 1bp, and the 15Y and 30Y yields declined by 3bp. The 1Y yield dropped to the 8% quantile, while 3Y, 5Y, 7Y, 10Y, 15Y, and 30Y dropped to the 2% quantile [17]. - **China Development Bank Bonds**: Short - term yields rose slightly, while long - term yields declined. The 15Y yield declined by 3bp, and the 30Y yield declined by 4bp. The 1Y, 3Y, 5Y, 7Y, and 10Y yields were at different quantiles [18]. 1.2 Term Spreads - **Treasury Bonds**: The spreads showed a divergent trend, with short - term spreads widening and long - term spreads narrowing. The 1Y - DR001 spread increased by 1bp, and the 1Y - DR007 spread's inversion deepened by about 1bp [19]. - **China Development Bank Bonds**: The spread inversion eased, and long - term spreads narrowed. The 1Y - DR007 spread's inversion eased by 3bp [20]. 2. Bond Market Leverage and Liquidity - **Leverage Ratio**: It rose to 107.51%. From June 9 to June 13, 2025, the leverage ratio fluctuated upward. As of June 13, it increased by 0.37 percentage points compared to last Friday [23]. - **Average Daily Turnover of Pledged Repurchase**: The average daily turnover this week was 7.9 trillion yuan, with an average overnight proportion of 89.39%. The average daily turnover increased compared to last week [30]. - **Liquidity**: Bank lending showed a fluctuating upward trend. DR007 fluctuated downward, while R007 fluctuated upward [35]. 3. Duration of Medium - and Long - Term Bond Funds - **Median Duration**: It rose to 2.78 years (ex - leverage) and 2.96 years (including leverage). As of June 13, the ex - leverage median duration increased by 0.02 years compared to last Friday [45]. - **Duration by Bond Fund Type**: The median duration of interest - rate bond funds (including leverage) remained at 3.67 years, while the median duration of credit bond funds (including leverage) rose to 2.73 years [48]. 4. Comparison of Generic Strategies - **Sino - US Yield Spread**: The overall inversion has eased. The inversion of 1Y, 2Y, 3Y, 5Y, 7Y, 10Y, and 30Y has decreased by 4bp, 7bp, 11bp, 11bp, 10bp, 9bp, and 4bp respectively [52]. - **Implied Tax Rate**: It has generally widened. The spreads between China Development Bank bonds and treasury bonds for 1Y, 3Y, 5Y, 7Y, and 10Y have widened, while the 15Y spread changed slightly and the 30Y spread narrowed [53]. 5. Changes in Bond Lending Balances - On June 13, the lending concentration of active 10Y treasury bonds, the second - most active 10Y China Development Bank bonds, active 10Y China Development Bank bonds, and active 30Y treasury bonds showed an upward trend, while the concentration of the second - most active 10Y treasury bonds declined. All institutions showed an upward trend [58].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that dialogue with market participants is essential for ensuring stability in bond trading [1]

日本财务省：将于6月20日与债券市场参与者举行会议。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the past week, despite the volatile news, the bond market remained stable with bullish sentiment prevailing. On June 5th, the bond market yields declined instead of rising, pricing in the positive factors of central bank support [1][21]. - The central bank's early renewal of RMB 1 trillion in outright repurchase operations is a signal of support, which may reduce the possibility of a significant tightening of liquidity during the quarter - end [2][21]. - Institutional behavior has received two positive factors: large - banks' continuous allocation of short - term bonds in the secondary market may be a signal of the central bank restarting bond purchases; the improvement in long - term life insurance premiums may increase the insurance sector's allocation of ultra - long bonds [3]. - The outcome of the new round of Sino - US negotiations in the coming week is a variable. An optimistic outcome may lead to a short - term rise in long - term interest rates but is beneficial to the bond market in the medium term, while a neutral outcome may see the bond market continue to be influenced by central bank support, with limited downward space for long - term interest rates [32]. - In June, with few foreseeable negative factors, short - term bond prices have risen significantly, and long - term interest rates may break out of the narrow - range oscillation. Investors can consider trading duration products for excess returns [33]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Bond Market Bullish Sentiment Dominates - From June 3rd - 6th, after the Dragon Boat Festival, the bond market emerged from a narrow - range oscillation and showed a downward trend. Yields of long - term and short - term treasury bonds decreased, with the 10 - year treasury bond active bond (250011) falling to 1.65% (- 2bp) and the 1 - year treasury bond active bond (250008) falling to 1.41% (- 5bp) [10]. 3.2 Bond Market May Be on the Rise - The central bank's early renewal of RMB 1 trillion in 3 - month outright repurchase operations, with the announcement form changed and the time advanced, is to enhance information transparency and ease market concerns about quarter - end pressure. There are still reserve operations in the second half of the month [2][21]. - The positive impact of central bank support is first reflected in the certificate of deposit (CD) market. After the central bank's announcement, the pressure on banks to issue CDs has eased, but there may still be issuance pressure in the next 1 - 2 weeks [22]. - In terms of institutional behavior, large banks have continuously allocated short - term bonds in the secondary market, which may be a signal of the central bank restarting bond purchases. In addition, the improvement in long - term life insurance premiums may increase the allocation of ultra - long bonds by the insurance sector [3][23][28]. 3.3 In the First Week of June, the Wealth Management Scale Continued to Shrink 3.3.1 Weekly Scale: A Slight Decline of RMB 1.79 Billion - At the end of May (May 26th - 30th), the wealth management scale decreased by RMB 186.6 billion due to the balance - sheet return pressure, with the daily - open products bearing the main decline. In May, the scale increased by RMB 193.4 billion, reaching a record high, but the growth rate was slightly slower than in previous years [37]. - In the first week of June (June 3rd - 6th), the wealth management scale unexpectedly decreased by RMB 1.79 billion to RMB 31.51 trillion. Historically, the scale usually increases in the first week of June [38]. 3.3.2 Wealth Management Risks: Net Value Stabilized and Negative Yields Decreased - The net value of wealth management products stabilized and rebounded, driving down the negative yield. The negative yield of products in the past week decreased by 4.90pct to 1.51%, and the negative yield in the past three months decreased by 0.66pct to 0.96% [43]. - The overall proportion of wealth management products breaking the net value decreased by 0.2pct to 0.7%, while the proportion of products with unmet performance targets increased by 0.5pct to 18.2% [52]. 3.4 Leverage Ratio: Large Banks' Lending Continued to Recover, and Inter - bank Leverage Increased - In the first week of June (June 3rd - 6th), with the central bank's support, the inter - bank funds became looser. The average price of funds decreased, and the average trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase increased from RMB 6.5 trillion to RMB 7.5 trillion, with the average overnight ratio rising from 83.33% to 87.48% [61]. - The leverage ratio of non - bank institutions slightly decreased, the inter - bank leverage ratio continued to rise from 107.18% to 107.36%, and the exchange leverage ratio slightly decreased [63]. 3.5 Funds Continued to Extend Duration - From June 3rd - 6th, bond funds further extended their duration. The median duration of interest - rate medium - and long - term bond funds increased from 4.32 years to 4.68 years, and that of credit medium - and long - term bond funds increased from 2.09 years to 2.22 years. The duration of short - term and medium - short - term bond funds also extended [71][75]. 3.6 Treasury Bond Issuance Accelerated - From June 9th - 13th, the planned issuance scale of government bonds was RMB 722.8 billion, mainly due to the accelerated issuance of treasury bonds, which increased by RMB 168.8 billion to RMB 615 billion compared with the previous week, while the local bond issuance scale remained basically unchanged at RMB 107.8 billion [79]. - Regarding local bonds, as of June 6th, the issuance progress of replacement bonds was 84.18%, and the issuance of new local special bonds was RMB 1647.9 billion, accounting for 37% of the RMB 4.4 trillion quota. From January 1st - June 13th, the cumulative net issuance of local bonds was RMB 3714.8 billion, an increase of RMB 2144.5 billion year - on - year [80][81]. - Regarding treasury bonds, from January 1st - June 13th, the cumulative net issuance was RMB 3371 billion, an increase of RMB 1854.3 billion year - on - year, with a remaining quota of RMB 3289 billion [84]. - Regarding policy - financial bonds, from January 1st - June 9th, the cumulative net issuance was RMB 827.4 billion, an increase of RMB 299.3 billion year - on - year [85].

在全球金融体系中，如果说股票市场是企业所有权的交易平台，那么债券市场则是庞大的债务融资枢 纽。 它不仅是各国政府、金融机构和大型企业筹集中长期资金的关键渠道，更是全球资本市场中规模最大、 流动性最强的组成部分，其未偿还总额已超过130万亿美元。 理解这一市场的运行机制与核心要素，对于把握宏观经济脉搏、进行资产配置和风险管理至关重要。 一.债券的本质与核心特征 从本质上看，债券是一种债务工具，是发行人（借款人）向投资者（贷款人）出具的借款凭证。发行人 承诺在未来特定日期偿还本金，并通常在此期间支付固定的利息（票息）。 与股票不同，债券具有以下核心特征： 1. 固定收益： 大多数债券提供预先确定的利息支付，为投资者带来可预测的现金流。 从地域分布看，发达市场（北美、欧洲、日本）占据主导地位，其中美国市场规模最大、流动性最好； 新兴市场增长迅速，但波动性相对较高。跨境交易也十分活跃，形成了外国债券和欧洲债券等重要类 别。 四.债券市场的运行机制：从发行到交易 中长期融资基石： 政府通过发行国债为公共支出融资，企业通过发行公司债扩大生产或进行并 购。 安全资产池： 特别是高信用评级的国债，被视为低风险资产，是全球金融 ...

Core Insights - The forum focused on the dual empowerment of finance and technology to build a strong financial nation and innovation zones [2] - Key challenges in achieving effective interaction between technology and finance were highlighted, particularly the mismatch in financial supply and the varying risk characteristics of tech enterprises at different lifecycle stages [2][3] Financial Institutions and Support - The People's Bank of China emphasized the need to enhance bank credit services, particularly for small and medium-sized tech enterprises, to promote rapid growth in tech loans [3] - A proposal was made to establish a "technology board" in the bond market to support the issuance of technology innovation bonds by financial institutions, tech companies, and equity investment institutions [4] - The Financial Regulatory Bureau is pushing for the establishment of specialized tech finance departments within financial institutions and has set up 2,178 tech branches nationwide [5] Financial Products and Services - The knowledge property pledge loan balance in the banking sector has exceeded 300 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 33.7% [5] - Financial institutions are encouraged to develop specialized financial products that consider the innovation capabilities and intellectual property values of enterprises [5] Insurance and Risk Management - The Financial Regulatory Bureau is optimizing insurance services for tech enterprises, including risk guarantees for major national tech tasks and pilot programs for insurance compensation [6] Foreign Exchange Management - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange is leveraging technology to enhance trade and investment facilitation for tech enterprises, including the use of blockchain for cross-border financial services [7] - Digital technologies are being utilized to streamline processes and improve regulatory efficiency in foreign exchange management [8][10] - The integration of big data and AI is aimed at enhancing the identification and crackdown on foreign exchange violations [9]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the Chinese bond market, particularly focusing on the impact of Sino-U.S. trade relations and various pressures on the market in June 2025 [1][4][18]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Short-term Pressures**: The bond market faces significant pressures from the issuance of interbank certificates of deposit (CDs), the configuration of ultra-long-term special government bonds, and banks' need to realize profits at the end of the half-year. In June, the maturity of CDs exceeds 4 trillion yuan, creating substantial issuance pressure [1][4]. - **Mid-term Optimism**: There are positive mid-term factors, such as the expected reduction in the insurance product's preset interest rates and the anticipated resumption of government bond trading by the central bank, which may offset the weakening effects of reserve requirement ratio cuts [1][5][11]. - **Interest Rate Environment**: The interest rate environment in June is expected to fluctuate between 1.65% and 1.75%, with a potential peak around 1.8%. The most significant variable affecting this is the progress of Sino-U.S. trade negotiations [3][19]. - **Market Sentiment**: If ultra-long-term special government bonds continue to fail to attract bids, it could severely deteriorate market sentiment, reminiscent of the "wolf is coming" effect [1][7]. - **Banking Behavior**: Banks are likely to continue selling older bonds to realize profits throughout June, which may exert additional selling pressure on the bond market, especially given the poor earnings in the first quarter of the year [8][9]. Additional Important Content - **Demand for Long-term Bonds**: The insurance industry, with its long asset-liability structure, is expected to maintain a strong demand for long-term bonds, particularly as overall interest rates decline [10]. - **Central Bank Actions**: The central bank's resumption of government bond trading is confirmed, with expectations of improving market sentiment in June and July [11]. - **Currency Dynamics**: The weakening of the U.S. dollar index and reduced pressure on the RMB exchange rate are providing some support to the bond market [12]. - **Market Factors**: Short-term factors include negative interest rates on pure bonds and the need for banks to meet liquidity demands at the end of the half-year, while mid-term factors include the central bank's actions and the reduced depreciation space for the RMB [13]. - **Key Observations for CDs**: The issuance of CDs in June is critical; if the primary issuance does not reach 3 trillion yuan by mid-June, there will be significant redemption pressure, potentially pushing rates up to 1.8% [14][19]. - **Investment Recommendations**: It is advised to consider purchasing ultra-long-term government bonds in mid to late June, as market sentiment is expected to be high, presenting a favorable trading window [2][15][16]. Overall Market Expectations - The overall expectation for the bond market in 2025 is cautious optimism, with potential for new lows in the third quarter and improved conditions in the fourth quarter, driven by previous net purchases of government bonds by the central bank [17].

Core Viewpoint - The report analyzes the investment opportunities in Europe amidst the challenges and changes in the global geopolitical landscape, emphasizing the need for Chinese companies to explore diverse investment avenues in Europe [1]. Group 1: European Economic Situation - The European economy has likely passed its recent low point, with industrial production gradually recovering since Q1 2025, although consumer confidence remains low [2]. - The manufacturing PMI in April showed a rebound, and the unemployment rate in the Eurozone remained at historical lows since 2000 [2]. - Inflation in Europe is expected to be controlled in 2025, with a target return to 2%, providing room for potential interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank [2]. Group 2: Geopolitical Changes and Cooperation - The geopolitical landscape is shifting, presenting new cooperation opportunities between China and Europe, especially with the easing of U.S. tariffs and a potential resolution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict [3]. - The relationship between the U.S. and Europe has changed, with a noticeable shift towards a more balanced relationship between China and Europe, as evidenced by the cancellation of all engagement restrictions in May 2025 [3]. Group 3: Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Trends - The worst period for FDI in Europe may be in the past, as macroeconomic factors that previously suppressed FDI are easing [4]. - FDI inflows have been declining, particularly in Western Europe, while Southern and Northern Europe have seen significant growth [10]. - In 2023, Europe experienced a net outflow of FDI amounting to $341.6 billion, with Western Europe showing the largest decline at -5.9% [10]. Group 4: Chinese Investment in Europe - Chinese FDI in Europe remains high but is shifting from manufacturing to sectors like finance and retail, indicating potential for growth in technology, manufacturing, and consumer services [5][32]. - The distribution of Chinese investments across European countries has become more balanced, with increased focus on Luxembourg and the UK [5][32]. - In 2023, the investment flow from China to Europe reached historical peaks in finance and retail, with manufacturing investment share declining significantly from previous years [34]. Group 5: Investment Environment and Opportunities - Europe offers a favorable investment environment due to its infrastructure, capital markets, and educated workforce, despite recent geopolitical tensions [26][27]. - Countries in Central and Eastern Europe, as well as Southern Europe, are emerging as attractive investment destinations due to their market demand and stable business environments [11]. - The EU has been actively promoting policies to attract foreign investment, ensuring that foreign investors receive national treatment and benefits similar to domestic companies [30].

Core Viewpoints - The article discusses the current concerns of investors regarding macro interest rates, credit, and convertible bonds, and provides insights on these topics [2][12]. Group 1: Bond Market Dynamics - Bond interest rates are positively correlated with domestic demand and negatively correlated with external demand, indicating that despite unexpected tariff changes, the core contradiction in the bond market remains focused on domestic demand [3][14]. - The liquidity environment is improving gradually, with funding rates decreasing from around 1.8% to a range of 1.4%-1.6%, suggesting that negative carry is becoming a thing of the past [4][19]. - The long-end interest rates, particularly the 10-year government bond, require a decline in deposit rates to facilitate further downward movement [20][21]. Group 2: Macro-Prudential Support - The People's Bank of China is focusing on macro-prudential measures to support the healthy development of the bond market, which includes monitoring risks and enhancing regulatory coordination [5][24]. - The current credit environment shows weak growth in broad credit, with local government bonds expanding, indicating that investors may face more interest rate risks [25]. Group 3: Credit Bond Market - The credit bond market is expected to see a shift towards stronger credit performance and weaker interest rates, driven by a decrease in deposit rates and increased allocation towards credit bonds by wealth management products [7][28]. - The performance of credit strategies is likely to favor short to medium-term bonds, particularly those with a maturity of 2-3 years, with a ranking of value from city investment bonds to industry bonds [8][30]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The recent surge in sci-tech bonds presents unique investment opportunities, especially with new issuers and private sector participation, although investors should remain cautious of potential credit risks [10][32]. - The recommendation for a near-term convertible bond strategy is based on the increasing market focus on bonds with shorter maturities, particularly those with a strong repayment capability [11][34].