投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-06-19 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 2509 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，沪胶震荡偏强 | | 合成胶 2508 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，合成胶震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：本周以来，伊朗和以色列冲突持续升级，双方导弹空袭目标转向能源设施， ...

策略参考 品种：豆粕（M） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 6 月 19 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：偏强 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：随着天气题材减弱，美豆期价转为盘整。同时，美豆压榨需求获得生物燃料政策的支撑，抵消 了美豆出口下滑的忧虑，限制了美豆期价的调整空间。短期美豆期价涨势放缓转为震荡，但阶段性走势易 涨难跌维持。国内成本支撑仍在，粕类市场虽涨势放缓，但在资金聚集的背景下，短期回落空间相对有限。 品种：棕榈油(P) 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点参考 核心逻辑概要 ...

策略参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 6 月 18 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：偏强 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：随着美国大豆产区迎来降雨，天气改善令美豆期价反弹脚步放缓，但美豆仍处天气市波动之中， 易涨难跌走势维持。同时，美豆压榨需求获得生物燃料政策的支撑，美豆期价偏强运行对国内豆类联动支 撑仍在。随着粕类市场再获资金加持，整体走势得到巩固。近期豆类期价有望延续偏强走势。 品种：棕榈油(P) 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：偏强 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-06-18 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 甲醇 2509 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 地缘因素增强，甲醇震荡偏强 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：本周以来，伊朗和以色列冲突持续升级，双方导弹空袭目标转向能源设施，导致能化商 品溢价提升。作为全 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A-share market showed a trend of opening low and closing high, with TMT leading the rebound, while the consumer sector declined. The four major stock index futures contracts also rose with the index. The current index has stable support below but faces resistance above, and it is recommended to wait and see temporarily [2][3][4]. - The bond market is affected by factors such as economic data and capital conditions. Although the economic data in May is mixed, the short - end of bond futures is relatively strong. The upcoming tax period and cross - quarter capital test will affect the bond market, and it is recommended to allocate long positions on dips [6][7]. - Gold has a long - term upward trend under the background of de - dollarization, but it is affected by factors such as trade negotiations and geopolitical conflicts. It is recommended to pay attention to geopolitical situations and consider selling out - of - the - money call options on gold if the price fails to break through the previous high [10]. - The shipping index (European line) futures are expected to decline, and it is recommended to wait and see or pay attention to the 12 - 10 reverse spread opportunity [13]. - For various metals, copper is in a situation of "strong reality + weak expectation" and is expected to fluctuate; zinc is in a long - term supply - loose cycle, and it is recommended to consider shorting on rallies; tin is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term due to tight supply, and it is recommended to short on rallies based on inventory and import data; nickel and stainless steel are expected to fluctuate within a range; lithium carbonate is expected to run weakly in the short term due to supply pressure and high inventory [18][22][25][28][30]. - For black metals, steel is affected by the Iran - Israel conflict but still has a downward trend; iron ore supply pressure will increase in the short term, and it is recommended to take a short - term bearish view; for coking coal and coke, although the futures have rebounded, the fundamentals are still weak, and it is recommended to short on rallies; silicon iron and silicon manganese are expected to fluctuate at the bottom [35][40][43][47][49][53]. - For agricultural products,粕类is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to be cautious about chasing up; the pig price is expected to remain volatile with limited upward and downward space; corn is expected to fluctuate at a high level with insufficient upward momentum [56][59][60]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - **Market Conditions**: On Monday, the A - share market opened low and closed high, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.35%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 0.41%, and the ChiNext Index rising 0.66%. TMT led the rebound, while the consumer sector declined. The four major stock index futures contracts also rose with the index, and the basis discount of the main contracts converged [2][3]. - **News**: The National Bureau of Statistics released economic data for May, showing an increase in social consumer goods retail sales and a slowdown in fixed - asset investment. Overseas, there was a new round of military strikes between Iran and Israel [3][4]. - **Funding**: On June 16, the A - share trading volume decreased by 250 billion yuan compared with the previous day, with a total turnover of 1.22 trillion yuan. The central bank conducted 242 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 68.2 billion yuan [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The current basis rates of the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM are - 0.10%, - 0.25%, - 0.20%, and - 0.33% respectively. It is recommended to wait and see temporarily and consider selling the July 5800 strike price put options to earn the premium [4]. Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Most bond futures closed higher, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rising, while the 5 - year main contract remained flat. The yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market varied [5]. - **Funding**: The central bank conducted 242 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations on June 16, with a net investment of 68.2 billion yuan. The short - term capital rate decreased, while the long - term capital rate remained stable [5][6]. - **Fundamentals**: In May, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 5.8% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4% year - on - year. The fixed - asset investment from January to May increased by 3.7% year - on - year, and the real estate investment decreased [6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The economic data in May is mixed, and the short - end of bond futures is relatively strong. Considering the upcoming tax period and cross - quarter capital test, it is recommended to allocate long positions on dips and pay attention to high - frequency economic data and capital conditions [7]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals Gold - **Market Review**: International gold prices fell by 1.38% to close at $3384.54 per ounce, ending a three - day upward trend. The market's risk aversion sentiment has eased, and the prices of gold and crude oil have declined [10]. - **Outlook**: Gold has a long - term upward trend under the background of de - dollarization, but it is affected by factors such as trade negotiations and geopolitical conflicts. It is recommended to pay attention to geopolitical situations and consider selling out - of - the - money call options on gold if the price fails to break through the previous high [10]. Silver - **Market Review**: International silver prices fluctuated slightly, closing at $36.301 per ounce, up 0.03%. The industrial attributes of silver make its trend relatively independent [10]. - **Outlook**: The improvement of trade relations and the expansion of fiscal and monetary policies in Europe have increased the optimism of the industrial manufacturing industry, which has a certain supporting effect on silver prices. It is recommended to pay attention to the flow of speculative funds and ETFs and consider selling out - of - the - money call options [11]. Financial Derivatives - Shipping Index (European Line) - **Spot Quotation**: As of June 16, the quotes of major shipping companies showed different price ranges [12]. - **Shipping Index**: As of June 16, the SCFIS European line index rose by 4.61%, and the US - West line index rose by 27.18%. As of June 13, the SCFI composite index fell by 6.79% [12]. - **Fundamentals**: As of June 16, the global container shipping capacity increased by 8.3% year - on - year. The PMI data of the eurozone and the US in May showed different trends [12]. - **Logic and Suggestion**: The futures market fluctuated downward, and it is expected that the price of the 06 contract will decline, driving other contracts to decline. It is recommended to wait and see or pay attention to the 12 - 10 reverse spread opportunity [13]. Commodity Futures - Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Spot**: As of June 16, the average price of electrolytic copper decreased, and the downstream procurement sentiment improved after the price decline, but they preferred to purchase after the contract change [14]. - **Macro**: The COMEX - LME premium has stagnated after rising to 10%, and there are different views on its future trend. The conflict between Iran and Israel has not had a significant impact on copper prices [15]. - **Supply**: The supply of copper concentrate is expected to be limited, and the production of electrolytic copper in May increased. It is expected to decline slightly in June [16]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of copper rod processing enterprises showed different trends, and the terminal demand has certain resilience but may face pressure in Q3 [17]. - **Inventory**: COMEX copper inventory increased, while domestic inventory decreased slightly [17]. - **Logic and Suggestion**: Copper is in a situation of "strong reality + weak expectation" and is expected to fluctuate. The main contract is expected to trade between 77,000 - 80,000 yuan [18]. Zinc - **Spot**: On June 16, the average price of zinc ingots decreased, and the trading was mainly among traders [18]. - **Supply**: The processing fees of zinc concentrate changed little, and the production of zinc concentrate in May increased. The production of refined zinc in May decreased slightly and is expected to increase in June [19][20]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of primary processing industries of zinc increased, but the downstream consumption is entering the off - season, and the purchasing manager index has declined [21]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory and LME inventory decreased [21]. - **Logic and Suggestion**: Zinc is in a long - term supply - loose cycle. It is recommended to pay attention to the TC growth rate and downstream demand changes and consider shorting on rallies. The main contract is expected to find support between 21,000 - 21,500 yuan [22]. Tin - **Spot**: On June 16, the price of tin decreased slightly, and the trading was light. The downstream consumption is in the off - season [22]. - **Supply**: The import volume of tin ore and tin ingots in April showed different trends, and the supply of tin ore is expected to be tight [23]. - **Demand and Inventory**: The operating rate of solder in April increased, and the inventory of LME and SHFE decreased slightly, while the social inventory increased [23]. - **Logic and Suggestion**: Due to the tight supply of tin ore, tin is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. It is recommended to short on rallies based on inventory and import data [24]. Nickel - **Spot**: As of June 16, the price of electrolytic nickel decreased, and the import premium also decreased [25]. - **Supply**: The production of refined nickel is at a relatively high level and is expected to decline slightly in June [25]. - **Demand**: The demand for electroplating and alloy is relatively stable, while the demand for stainless steel and nickel sulfate is weak [25]. - **Inventory**: Overseas inventory remains high, and domestic social inventory has a slight downward trend [26]. - **Logic and Suggestion**: The nickel market is affected by macro and industrial factors, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range. The main contract is expected to trade between 118,000 - 126,000 yuan [27]. Stainless Steel - **Spot**: As of June 16, the price of stainless steel remained stable, and the trading was light [28]. - **Raw Materials**: The supply of nickel ore is still tight, and the price of nickel iron is weak, while the price of ferrochrome is relatively stable [28]. - **Supply**: The production of stainless steel in May decreased, and it is expected to decrease slightly in June [29]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory increased, and futures inventory decreased [29]. - **Logic and Suggestion**: The fundamentals of stainless steel are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly. The main contract is expected to trade between 12,400 - 13,000 yuan [30]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: As of June 12, the price of lithium carbonate increased slightly, and the trading in the spot market was still relatively light [30]. - **Supply**: The production of lithium carbonate in May decreased slightly and is expected to increase in June. The supply is still relatively high [31]. - **Demand**: The demand for lithium carbonate is relatively stable, but it may face pressure in the off - season [31]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of lithium carbonate is still at a high level, and the whole - chain inventory has been increasing in recent weeks [32]. - **Logic and Suggestion**: The lithium carbonate futures market fluctuated widely, and the market sentiment is still weak. It is expected to run weakly in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade between 56,000 - 62,000 yuan [33]. Commodity Futures - Ferrous Metals Steel - **Spot**: The spot price of steel weakened again, and the basis showed signs of stabilizing and strengthening [35]. - **Supply**: The steel production declined from a high level, with a significant reduction in finished steel products [35]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand for five major steel products continued to decline, and it is affected by factors such as tariffs and the off - season. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of relevant policies on demand [35]. - **Inventory**: The steel inventory is approaching the inflection point of accumulation, with the plate inventory increasing [36]. - **Viewpoint**: The conflict between Iran and Israel has a certain impact on the steel market, but it does not change the domestic supply - loose pattern. It is recommended to short on rallies or sell out - of - the - money call options [37]. Iron Ore - **Spot and Futures**: The price of mainstream iron ore powder increased slightly, and the 09 contract of iron ore futures fluctuated [38]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron production decreased slightly, and the steel mill profitability rate also declined [38]. - **Supply**: The global iron ore shipment decreased slightly, and the arrival volume decreased slightly. It is expected that the arrival volume will remain at a relatively high level in the future [39][40]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory increased, and the steel mill's equity ore inventory also increased [40]. - **Viewpoint**: The iron ore market is affected by factors such as demand and supply. In the short term, there is pressure on the iron ore price, and it is recommended to take a short - term bearish view on the 09 contract, with the price range expected to be between 720 - 670 yuan [40]. Coking Coal - **Spot and Futures**: The coking coal futures fluctuated upward, while the spot market was weakly stable, showing a divergence between futures and spot [43]. - **Supply**: The domestic coal production decreased slightly due to environmental inspections, and the import coal price continued to decline [43]. - **Demand**: The coking production and downstream pig iron production declined, but the demand still has certain resilience [43]. - **Inventory**: The coal mine inventory continued to accumulate, and the port inventory was at a historical high, while the downstream inventory was at a medium level [43]. - **Strategy**: The spot fundamentals have improved slightly. It is recommended to short on rallies when the price rebounds to 800 - 850 yuan for the 2509 contract and consider a strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [45]. Coke - **Spot and Futures**: The coke futures fluctuated upward, while the spot market was weakly stable, showing a divergence between futures and spot. The third - round price cut of coke has been implemented, and there is still an expectation of further price cuts [47]. - **Supply**: The coking production decreased due to environmental factors [47]. - **Demand**: The demand for coke decreased slightly, and the downstream pig iron production continued to decline [47]. - **Inventory**: The coke inventory decreased, with the coking plant, steel mill, and port inventories all showing a downward trend [47]. - **Strategy**: The spot fundamentals are still loose. It is recommended to short on rallies when the price rebounds to 1380 - 1430 yuan for the 2509 contract and consider a strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [47]. Silicon Iron - **Spot and Futures**: The spot price of silicon iron increased, and the 09 contract of silicon iron futures rose by 1.93% [48]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of silicon iron production is relatively high, and the profit is negative [48]. - **Supply**: The silicon iron production decreased slightly this week [49]. - **Demand**: The demand for silicon iron from five major steel products decreased, and the non - steel demand is also weak [49]. - **Viewpoint**: The silicon iron market is affected by factors such as supply, demand, and cost. It is expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term [49]. Manganese Silicon - **Spot and Futures**: The spot price of manganese silicon increased, and the 09 contract of manganese silicon futures rose by 1.97% [50]. - **Cost**: The cost of manganese silicon production is relatively high, and the profit is negative [50]. - **Supply**: The manganese silicon production increased slightly this week [51]. - **Demand**: The demand for manganese silicon from five major steel products decreased [52]. - **Viewpoint**: The manganese silicon market is affected by factors such as supply, demand, and cost. It is expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term [53]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal - **Spot Market**: The spot price of soybean meal and rapeseed meal increased, and the trading volume also increased [54]. - **Fundamentals**: The US EPA proposed to increase the biofuel blending volume in 2026 and 2027, which affected the price of soybean oil. The soybean processing profit in Brazil decreased, and the EU's soybean import volume increased [54][55]. - **Outlook**: The current operation of US soybeans is mainly affected by policies. The new US soybean crop has a fast planting progress and a high excellent rate, which puts pressure on the price. It is expected that the domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal will continue to fluctuate,

Tabl e_Title 2025 年 6 月 16 日 大类资产运行周报（20250609-20250613） 地缘冲突升温 国际油价短期攀升 风险提示：美国通胀数据改善不及预期 大类资产运行报告 全球主要资产表现 | | 近一周变动 | | --- | --- | | 新兴市场股市指数 | 0.60% | | Table_Fi rstSto ck 发达市场股市指数 主要资产涨跌幅表现 | -0.35% | | 全球债券指数 | 0.81% | | 全球国债指数 | 0.78% | | 全球信用债指数 姓名 | 0.90% | | 美元指数 | 分析师 -1.07% | | SAC 执业证书编号：S1111111111111 | | | RJ/CRB 商品价格指数 | Xxxxxx @essence.com.cn 2.99% | | | 021-68767839 | | 标普高盛商品全收益指数 | 4.86% | 丁沛舟 高级分析师 期货从业资格号：F3002969 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0012005 dingpz@essence.com.cn 010-58747724 相关报告 大类资产运行周报（202 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-06-16 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2509 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 强势运行 | 伊朗装置停工，甲醇强势运行 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：上涨 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：强势运行 核心逻辑：随着中东地缘冲突加剧，伊以战争爆发，原油等能化商品迎来集体上涨。在能源成本抬 升的背景下，叠加板块共振效应凸显并占据主导地位，近期甲醇期货维持偏强格局运行。由于伊朗 和以色列冲突升级，导致伊朗国内 4 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of effectively controlling risks and reducing volatility in asset management, advocating for a "macro factor" risk parity strategy that adapts to changing macroeconomic environments, contrasting it with traditional asset risk parity models [1][13][15]. Group 1: Macro Factor Risk Parity Framework - The construction of a macro factor risk parity framework involves four steps: selecting factors, calculating risk exposure, determining target risk exposure, and matching target risk exposure to asset weights [2][16][17]. - The mainstream methods for constructing macro factors include using low-frequency economic data, principal component analysis (PCA), and regression methods to fit higher-frequency macro factors [3][18][19]. Group 2: Factor Construction and High-Frequency Transformation - The article outlines a refined approach to factor construction, summarizing it as "defining dimensions, screening assets, and high-frequency transformation," which combines the advantages of various methods [3][18][19]. - The transformation of low-frequency macro factors into high-frequency factors is achieved through factor mimicking, which involves regression analysis to identify strong correlations with asset prices [5][29][31]. Group 3: Risk Exposure and Asset Sensitivity - A risk exposure matrix is created to show the sensitivity of assets to different macro variables, using robust OLS regression to capture dynamic features [6][33][34]. - The analysis reveals that large-cap stocks are more sensitive to economic growth, while mid-cap stocks are more sensitive to liquidity conditions [6][35][38]. Group 4: Performance of Different Strategies - The "lightweight" strategy, focusing on growth and inflation factors, has shown an annualized return of 7.7% with a volatility of 5.4% since 2016, outperforming traditional asset risk parity strategies [7][40][41]. - The "three-dimensional" strategy, incorporating M1, BCI, and PPI, has yielded an annualized return of 9.0% with a volatility of 7.8%, indicating a more diversified asset allocation [8][9]. - The "broad-spectrum" strategy, which includes multiple macro factors, has achieved an annualized return of 7.5% with a lower volatility of 4.0%, demonstrating a higher Sharpe ratio compared to simpler models [9][10].

策略参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 6 月 13 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：美国农业部报告无亮点，市场关注焦点转向 6 月末种植面积报告。豆类市场交易逻辑围绕天气 题材和贸易前景展开，美豆期价呈现天气市波动特征，整体走势易涨难跌，国内豆粕期价受原料大豆进口 成本支撑，短期回落空间有限。 品种：棕榈油(P) 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点参考 核心逻辑概要 <点击目录链接，直达品种 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term trading logic of the soybean market comes from weather themes and the prospects of Sino - US trade relations, with a continued staged rebound trend. The internal and external soybean futures prices are still in an upward - prone and downward - resistant pattern [5]. - Although there is disappointment about the lack of agricultural content in the details of the Sino - US trade agreement, soybean oil prices are supported by the latest policy expectations of the US Department of Energy. The short - term futures prices of US soybean oil stop falling and rebound, which drives up domestic soybean oil prices [7]. - The Malaysian palm oil inventory has increased for three consecutive months, putting pressure on the palm oil market. The domestic palm oil lacks its own driving force and fluctuates following the international oil market in the short term, with limited rebound space [8]. 3. Summary by Variety 3.1. Soybean Meal (M) - **View**: The intraday view is strongly volatile, and the medium - term view is sideways. The reference view is strongly volatile [5]. - **Core Logic**: Sino - US principles have reached an agreement framework, with positive expectations for US soybean exports. The US soybean futures prices continue to show weather - market volatility characteristics [5]. 3.2. Soybean Oil (Y) - **View**: The intraday view is strongly volatile, and the medium - term view is sideways. The reference view is strongly volatile [6][7]. - **Core Logic**: Driven by the latest policy expectations of the US Department of Energy, the futures prices of US soybean oil stop falling and rebound, bringing a linkage boost to domestic soybean oil prices [7]. 3.3. Palm Oil (P) - **View**: The intraday view is strongly volatile, and the medium - term view is sideways. The reference view is strongly volatile [6][8]. - **Core Logic**: The Malaysian palm oil inventory has increased for three consecutive months, and the market is under pressure. The domestic palm oil lacks its own driving force and fluctuates following the international oil market in the short term [8].