□ 1月生产指数为50.6%，高于临界点，制造业生产保持扩张 □ 1月高技术制造业PMI为52.0%，连续2个月位于52.0%及以上较高水平，行业发展态势持续向好。装备 制造业PMI为50.1%，保持在扩张区间 □ 1月主要原材料购进价格指数和出厂价格指数分别为56.1%和50.6%，分别比2025年12月上升3.0个百分 点和1.7个百分点。其中，原材料购进价格指数创2024年6月以来新高，出厂价格指数是近20个月来首次 升至临界点以上 □ 1月制造业企业生产经营活动预期指数为52.6%，继续高于临界点 □ 1月服务业业务活动预期指数为57.1%，比2025年12月上升0.7个百分点，连续2个月环比上升，表明服 务业企业对近期市场发展信心有所增强 ◎记者 陈芳 从制造业PMI的分项指标看，企业生产增势有所放缓，但整体仍保持扩张态势，市场需求承压运行，新 订单指数和新出口订单指数均回落。 数据显示：1月生产指数为50.6%，高于临界点，制造业生产保持扩张；新订单指数为49.2%，较2025年 12月下降1.6个百分点；新出口订单指数为47.8%，较2025年12月下降1.2个百分点。 对于需求回落的原因，中国 ...

Group 1 - In January, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) decreased to 49.3%, indicating a decline in economic sentiment [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index fell to 49.4%, reflecting a decrease in overall economic activity [1] - The comprehensive PMI output index also dropped to 49.8%, showing a general downturn in economic conditions [1] Group 2 - The decline in manufacturing PMI is attributed to seasonal factors, as many industries enter a traditional off-peak period in January [2] - The PMI index is affected by a high base effect from December 2025, which saw a significant increase, thus impacting January's figures [2] - Weak internal investment and consumption demand, along with high external uncertainties, are major factors dragging down the manufacturing sector [2] Group 3 - The raw material purchase price index rose to 56.1%, while the factory price index increased to 50.6%, marking the first time in nearly 20 months that the factory price index exceeded the critical point [3] - The difference between the raw material purchase price index and the factory price index indicates a transfer of profits upstream [3] - Recent structural policies aimed at supporting small and medium enterprises and technology firms are expected to take time to positively impact the manufacturing sector [3] Group 4 - The non-manufacturing business activity index's decline is influenced by the downturn in industries such as construction, with the index falling to 49.4% [4] - The real estate sector's business activity index dropped below 40.0%, indicating a weak overall sentiment in that industry [4] - Financial services and capital market services showed higher activity levels, with indices above 65.0%, reflecting a more active market [4] Group 5 - The overall macroeconomic sentiment is declining due to seasonal fluctuations, high previous month bases, and insufficient effective demand from the real estate market [5] - The manufacturing production index is expected to decline significantly in February due to the extended Spring Festival holiday [5] - Future manufacturing sentiment will be influenced by export growth, real estate market trends, and the timing and intensity of growth-stimulating policies [5]

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Insights - The manufacturing PMI for January dropped to 49.3%, a significant decline compared to December, exceeding seasonal expectations[7] - Compared to November, the manufacturing PMI remained stable, indicating no significant strengthening in economic conditions[8] - The production index contributed 150% to the PMI, primarily driven by a recovery in upstream production[8] Group 2: Demand and Price Dynamics - New export orders increased by 0.2 percentage points, while new orders remained flat, suggesting stronger external demand compared to domestic demand[8] - The main raw material purchase price index rose by 3.0 percentage points to 56.1% compared to December, indicating cost-push inflation[8] - The finished goods inventory index increased to 48.6%, reflecting a trend of passive accumulation of inventory due to weak demand[8] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector Performance - The non-manufacturing PMI fell to 49.4%, indicating a return to contraction territory[8] - The construction PMI dropped to 48.8%, influenced by seasonal factors as projects halted ahead of the Spring Festival[8] - The service sector PMI remained stable at 49.5%, supported by increased domestic travel demand during the holiday[8] Group 4: Economic Outlook and Risks - The report highlights concerns over the lack of demand support for production recovery and the potential impact of high raw material prices on industrial profitability[8] - Recent policy measures aim to stimulate demand and investment, with a focus on new consumption sectors[8]

Group 1: PMI Data Overview - In January, the manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.3%, down from 50.1% in December[2] - The non-manufacturing PMI also fell to 49.4%, compared to 50.2% in the previous month[2] - The decline in PMI is attributed to the upcoming Spring Festival and a high base effect from the previous month[2] Group 2: Sector Performance - High-tech and midstream equipment manufacturing PMIs remain above the threshold at 52.0% and 50.1% respectively, despite slight declines[2] - Downstream consumer goods manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.3%, indicating a significant decrease of 2.1 percentage points[2] - The construction PMI fell to 48.8%, a decrease of 4.0 percentage points, reflecting seasonal impacts and a high base from the previous month[2] Group 3: Price Indices - The main raw material purchase price index rose to 56.1%, an increase of 3.0 percentage points, while the factory price index reached 50.6%, up by 1.7 percentage points[2] - This marks the first time in 20 months that the factory price index has risen above the critical point, suggesting a potential narrowing of PPI declines[2] Group 4: Demand and Supply Dynamics - The production index decreased to 50.6%, down by 1.1 percentage points, while the new orders index fell to 49.2%, down by 1.6 percentage points[2] - The new export orders index also declined to 47.8%, indicating a slowdown in export momentum compared to the previous month[2] Group 5: Policy and Economic Outlook - The first batch of "two new" funds has been allocated, and a coordinated fiscal and financial policy to boost domestic demand has been deployed[2] - Continued attention is needed on marginal changes in investment, consumer performance during the Spring Festival, and new policies from the upcoming Two Sessions[2]

Group 1: PMI Data Overview - In January, the manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.3%, down from 50.1% in December[2] - The non-manufacturing PMI also fell to 49.4%, compared to 50.2% in the previous month[2] - The decline in PMI is attributed to the upcoming Spring Festival and a high base effect from the previous month[2] Group 2: Sector Performance - High-tech and midstream equipment manufacturing PMIs remain above the threshold at 52.0% and 50.1% respectively, despite slight declines[2] - Downstream consumer goods manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.3%, indicating a significant decrease of 2.1 percentage points[2] - The construction PMI fell to 48.8%, a decrease of 4.0 percentage points, reflecting seasonal impacts and a high base from the previous month[2] Group 3: Price Indices - The main raw material purchase price index rose to 56.1%, an increase of 3.0 percentage points, while the factory price index reached 50.6%, up by 1.7 percentage points[2] - This marks the first time in 20 months that the factory price index has risen above the critical point, suggesting a potential narrowing of PPI declines[2] Group 4: Demand and Supply Dynamics - The production index decreased to 50.6%, down by 1.1 percentage points, while the new orders index fell to 49.2%, a drop of 1.6 percentage points[2] - New export orders also declined to 47.8%, indicating a slowdown in external demand[2] Group 5: Policy and Economic Outlook - The first batch of "two new" funds has been allocated, and a coordinated fiscal and financial policy to boost domestic demand has been deployed[2] - Continued monitoring of investment trends, consumer performance during the Spring Festival, and policy developments during the Two Sessions is advised[2]

chence@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524020002 制造业：PMI 再度转弱，生产与需求均下行 (1)需求下行叠加高基数拖累，制造业景气度降至荣枯线下。1 月制造业 PMI 为 49.3%、环比下行了 0.8 个百分点，明显弱于季节性规律。此前我们曾指出"12 月工作日数同比增加 2 天，作为环比指标的 PMI 读数会出现一定改善"，实际 上经济改善幅度可能有限，但这形成了较高的基数并拖累 1 月 PMI 表现。分行 业来看，农副食品加工、铁路船舶航空航天设备等产需指数位于高景气区间， 油煤加工、汽车等行业则相对承压。 (2)有色原油涨价提振工业原材料价格，预计 1 月 PPI 同比延续回升。1 月 PMI 原材料购进价格为 56.1%，较前值上升了 3.0 个百分点；PMI 出厂价格为 50.6%， 较前值上升了 1.7 个百分点。根据高频指标，我们预计 1 月 PPI 环比可能在 0.3% 左右、同比为-1.3%左右。 2026 年 02 月 01 日 开年 PMI 边际放缓 宏观研究团队 ——兼评 1 月 PMI 数据 何宁（分析师） 陈策（分析师） hening@kysec.cn ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观专题研究 | 中国宏观 宏观专题研究 报告日期：2026 年 02 月 01 日 1 月 PMI：生产蓄力开门红 —2026 年 1 月 PMI 数据解读 核心观点 1 月制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为 49.3%，比上月下降 0.8 个百分点，重返 收缩区间。从结构上看，制造业企业生产指数有所放缓但仍处于扩张区间， 而市场有效需求仍显不足，生产存在蓄力开门红特征。从行业角度来看，消 费品制造业生产指数放缓拖累较多，但装备制造业、高技术制造业为代表的 新动能仍处于扩张区间。 1 月份，综合 PMI 产出指数为 49.8%，非制造业商务活动指数亦有所回落。 综合来看，随着春节临近，部分制造业行业进入传统淡季，建筑业景气下降， 1 月经济活动相较上月总体放缓。 ❑ 1 月生产放缓但仍处于扩张区间，蓄力开门红 1 月生产指数 50.6%，比上月回落 1.1 个百分点，仍处于扩张区间，表明制造业生 产活动保持扩张，此外，生产相关的原材料库存量回落、用工景气平稳。1 月生产 指数下降的首要原因是消费品制造业生产指数较上月下降超过 4 个百分点至 50% 以下，拖累整体生产指数运行，显示消费品制造业 ...

国家统计局服务业调查中心、中国物流与采购联合会1月31日发布数据显示，2026年1月份，制造业采购 经理指数(PMI)、非制造业商务活动指数和综合PMI产出指数分别为49.3%、49.4%和49.8%，比上月下降 0.8个、0.8个和0.9个百分点，经济景气水平有所回落。 服务业运行稳定 1月份，受建筑业等行业景气度下降等因素影响，非制造业商务活动指数为49.4%，比上月下降0.8个百 分点，非制造业总体景气水平有所回落。 "但从企业感受来看，市场需求不足的问题趋于缓解。"中国物流信息中心专家文韬表示，1月份反映市 场需求不足的制造业企业比重为54.9%，较上月下降9.4个百分点，意味着当前的市场需求放缓属于正常 变化，市场需求趋稳运行态势没有改变。 新动能延续扩张态势，产业结构持续优化。1月份，高技术制造业PMI为52.0%，连续两个月位于52.0% 及以上较高水平，相关行业发展态势持续向好；装备制造业PMI为50.1%，保持在扩张区间；消费品行 业和高耗能行业PMI分别为48.3%和47.9%，景气水平有所回落。 从价格看，受近期部分大宗商品价格上涨等因素影响，主要原材料购进价格指数和出厂价格指数分别为 ...

Core Viewpoint - The significant decline in January PMI is attributed to the early return of workers for the Spring Festival and weak domestic demand, with manufacturing PMI dropping to 49.3% from 50.1% and non-manufacturing PMI falling to 49.4% from 50.2% [1][6][7] Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Analysis - The manufacturing PMI fell below the growth threshold, decreasing by 0.8 percentage points to 49.3%, influenced by statistical factors and the early return of workers for the Spring Festival [1][7] - The production index decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 50.6%, while the new orders index fell by 1.6 percentage points to 49.2%, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity [4][38] - The purchasing index dropped significantly by 2.4 percentage points to 48.7%, reflecting a weaker supply side due to the early return of workers [2][16] Group 2: Sector-Specific Insights - Labor-intensive sectors such as consumer goods and high-energy industries experienced a more pronounced decline in PMI, with consumer goods PMI down 2.1 percentage points to 48.3% and high-energy PMI down 1 percentage point to 47.9% [2][22] - In contrast, capital-intensive sectors like high-tech and equipment manufacturing saw smaller declines, with PMIs of 52% and 50.1%, respectively, remaining above the growth threshold [2][22] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing PMI Insights - The non-manufacturing PMI also showed a decline, dropping by 0.8 percentage points to 49.4%, primarily due to a significant decrease in the construction sector, which fell by 4 percentage points to 48.8% [4][43] - The service sector PMI remained relatively resilient, only decreasing by 0.2 percentage points to 49.5%, with certain areas like railway transport showing strong performance [3][25] Group 4: Economic Outlook - The early Spring Festival may distort PMI readings for January and February, but the overall economic recovery trend is expected to continue, supported by consumer demand and service sector policies [3][32] - Despite short-term weaknesses in manufacturing and construction, the average PMI over the next two months is anticipated to reflect ongoing economic recovery [3][32]

Core Viewpoint - The significant decline in January PMI is primarily attributed to the early return of workers for the 2026 Spring Festival and weak domestic demand, with manufacturing PMI dropping to 49.3% from 50.1% and non-manufacturing PMI falling to 49.4% from 50.2% [2][8][61] Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Analysis - The manufacturing PMI fell below the neutral line, decreasing by 0.8 percentage points to 49.3%, influenced by statistical factors and the early return of workers [2][8][61] - The manufacturing production index declined by 1.1 percentage points to 50.6%, while the new orders index decreased by 1.6 percentage points to 49.2% [5][41] - The purchasing index for manufacturing dropped significantly by 2.4 percentage points to 48.7%, indicating a notable contraction in supply [3][15][62] Group 2: Sector-Specific Insights - Labor-intensive sectors such as consumer goods and high-energy industries experienced a more pronounced decline in PMI, with consumer goods PMI falling by 2.1 percentage points to 48.3% and high-energy PMI down by 1 percentage point to 47.9% [3][22][62] - In contrast, capital-intensive sectors like high-tech and equipment manufacturing saw smaller declines, with PMIs of 52% and 50.1%, respectively [3][22][62] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing PMI Insights - The non-manufacturing PMI showed asymmetric characteristics, with the construction PMI dropping to 48.8%, a decline of 4 percentage points, while the service sector PMI only slightly decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 49.5% [4][25][62] - The construction sector's decline is more significant than historical averages, indicating a substantial impact from the early return of workers [4][25][62] Group 4: Economic Outlook - The early Spring Festival may disrupt PMI readings for January and February, but the overall economic outlook remains positive, with expectations of recovery in the coming months [4][34][63] - Recent trends in service consumption and travel during the Spring Festival are expected to support service sector growth, highlighting the importance of monitoring consumer demand [4][34][63]