Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the likelihood of introducing additional stimulus policies in Q4 this year is low, primarily due to manageable growth pressures and positive developments in US-China tariff negotiations [1] - The manufacturing sector's recovery is weaker than market expectations, with a notable decline in manufacturing activity in October, primarily driven by production issues [1] - The drop in manufacturing activity is attributed to two main pressures: the impact of the October holiday leading to fewer working days and adjustments in production capacity by some companies following the implementation of anti-involution policies [1] Group 2 - In contrast to the manufacturing sector, the non-manufacturing sector saw a rebound in October, mainly supported by a recovery in the service industry [2] - The construction industry, while still in a contraction phase, shows signs of stabilization, with core constraints to recovery stemming from weakness in real estate-related sectors [2] - There is a trend of increased infrastructure investment activities, and if the pace of funding for infrastructure projects accelerates, it could provide stronger support for the recovery of the construction industry [2]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector Insights - The manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.8 percentage points in October, exceeding market expectations, primarily due to a significant decline in the production sector[5] - The production PMI fell by 2.2 percentage points in October, dropping below the threshold line and contributing over 0.5 percentage points to the overall decline in manufacturing sentiment[5] - The decline in production is the largest for October since 2017, indicating that the current drop may exceed normal fluctuations[5] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector Performance - The non-manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1% in October, driven by a recovery in the service sector, which was boosted by holiday consumption[12] - Although the construction sector remains in a contraction zone, it shows signs of stabilization, with the business activity index for civil engineering increasing by over 5 percentage points in October[12] - The core factor limiting the recovery of the construction sector is the weakness in real estate-related industries, although infrastructure investment activities are showing a rebound trend[12] Group 3: Policy Outlook - The likelihood of new incremental stimulus policies being introduced in Q4 is low, supported by manageable growth pressures and recent positive developments in US-China trade negotiations[16] - The actual GDP growth rate for the first three quarters of 2025 was 5.2%, indicating that achieving the annual target of 5% is feasible with a required Q4 growth rate of approximately 4.6%[16] - Recent US-China negotiations have resulted in a temporary suspension of certain tariffs, which is expected to marginally benefit exports[17] Group 4: Risk Factors - Consumer confidence recovery is slow, and the implementation of policies is not meeting expectations, posing risks to economic stability[22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term fundamentals and macro - sentiment of iron ore are under pressure. The focus on policy changes will be the key variable to break the downward trend. The market is looking forward to incremental stimulus policies during the upcoming Fourth Plenary Session and potential China - US talks. If fiscal or monetary easing measures are implemented, it is expected to improve demand expectations and boost iron ore prices [3][5][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - **Liberal Factors**: Current hot metal production, though slightly down month - on - month, maintains year - on - year positive growth and is at a seasonal high, supporting the basic demand for iron ore. The current basis of iron ore has increased, and the valuation is relatively low. The expectation of incremental stimulus policies under weak demand has risen [4][6][10]. - **Negative Factors**: Sino - US trade frictions have led to a significant decline in market risk appetite. Iron ore shipments remain at a seasonal high, and port inventories are accumulating beyond the seasonal norm. Hot - rolled coil inventories are continuously accumulating beyond the seasonal level, with production still at a high level and overall demand momentum insufficient. Steel mill profits have dropped significantly, and the pressure of negative feedback from steel mill production cuts is constantly building up. The strong coking coal market is squeezing the space for iron ore [8][9][10]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Operate the iron ore 2601 contract within the range of [760, 810] [11]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Inventory Management**: For those with spot inventory worried about future price drops, directly short iron ore futures to lock in profits (I2511, short, 25%, entry range 800 - 810), and sell call options to collect premiums (I2511 - C - 850, 30%, sell at high prices). - **Procurement Management**: For those planning to purchase in the future and worried about price increases, directly go long on iron ore futures to lock in costs (I2511, long, 30%, entry range 750 - 760), and sell out - of - the - money put options. If the price falls below the strike price, hold long futures positions (I2511 - P - 790, 40%, sell at high prices) [13]. 3.1.4 Core Data - **Black Industry Chain Cost - Profit Table**: The iron water cost on October 17, 2025, was 2461.88 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 18.56 yuan/ton and a monthly increase of 19.86 yuan/ton. The blast furnace hot - rolled coil profit was - 46 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 65 yuan/ton and a monthly decrease of 85 yuan/ton. The blast furnace rebar profit was - 60 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 43 yuan/ton and a monthly decrease of 45 yuan/ton. The steel mill profitability rate was 55.41%, a weekly decrease of 0.87% and a monthly decrease of 3.46% [13][14]. - **Iron Ore Weekly Shipment Data Table**: The global iron ore shipment volume on October 10, 2025, was 3207.5 tons, a weekly decrease of 71.5 tons and a monthly decrease of 365.6 tons. The Australian and Brazilian shipment volume was 2666.5 tons, a weekly decrease of 60.9 tons and a monthly decrease of 184.3 tons [15]. - **Iron Ore Demand Weekly Data Table**: The daily average port clearance volume on October 17, 2025, was 315.72 tons, a weekly decrease of 11.28 tons and a monthly decrease of 15.56 tons. The daily average hot metal production was 240.95 tons, a weekly decrease of 0.59 tons and a monthly decrease of 0.07 tons [16]. - **Iron Ore Inventory Weekly Data Table**: The inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports on October 17, 2025, was 14278.27 tons, a weekly increase of 253.77 tons and a monthly increase of 428.8 tons. The proportion of trade ore at 45 ports was 64.49%, a weekly decrease of 0.72% and a monthly decrease of 0.75% [17]. 3.2 Supply - **Global Shipment Analysis**: No specific summary data provided in the text, but there are multiple charts showing the seasonal and cumulative year - on - year changes in global iron ore shipments [17][18][19]. - **Four Major Mines Shipment Analysis**: Multiple charts show the seasonal, cumulative year - on - year, and over - seasonal changes in the shipments of the four major iron ore mines [24][25][26]. - **Non - mainstream Mines Shipment Analysis**: Multiple charts show the seasonal, cumulative year - on - year, and over - seasonal changes in non - mainstream mine shipments. The Platts iron ore price index leads non - mainstream shipments by about 5 weeks [28][31][37]. - **Arrival and Port Congestion Analysis**: Multiple charts show the seasonal, cumulative year - on - year changes in the arrival volume of 47 ports, the number of ships at ports, port congestion days, and actual arrival volume [37][38][41]. - **Capsize Shipping Analysis**: Multiple charts show the seasonal changes in the freight rates of capsize ships on different routes, the proportion of freight in iron ore prices, ship speeds, and global weekly sea - floating inventories [44][45][48]. - **Domestic Ore Supply Analysis**: Multiple charts show the seasonal changes in the daily average production of iron concentrate powder from 186 mining enterprises and the monthly production of iron concentrate powder from 433 mining enterprises in China [49][50][51]. 3.3 Demand Analysis - **Hot Metal Analysis**: Multiple charts show the seasonal, over - seasonal, and year - on - year changes in the daily average hot metal production of 247 steel enterprises in China, as well as the relationship between hot metal production and iron ore prices [54][55][56]. - **Steel Mill Profit Analysis**: Multiple charts show the production profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils, the profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises, and the leading relationship between profits and the production of various steel products [57][58][59]. - **Downstream Steel Analysis - Rebar**: Multiple charts show the production, consumption, total inventory, short - process production, cost assessment, and price differences of rebar [72][73][74]. - **Downstream Steel Analysis - Hot - rolled Coil**: Multiple charts show the seasonal production, consumption, total inventory, and price differences of hot - rolled coils [80][81][82]. - **Downstream Steel Analysis - Medium and Heavy Plate**: Multiple charts show the production, consumption, and inventory - to - sales ratio of medium and heavy plates [83][84][85]. - **Downstream Steel Analysis - Off - balance - sheet Steel**: Multiple charts show the estimated seasonal production of off - balance - sheet steel, the combined inventory of on - and off - balance - sheet crude steel, and the production, inventory, and apparent demand of various steel products such as H - beams, angle steels, galvanized coils, etc. [88][89][90]. - **Export Analysis**: Multiple charts show the monthly production of special steel, the monthly export volume of steel, the port - out volume of steel, export orders, and the export profit of hot - rolled coils [110][111][115]. 3.4 Inventory Analysis - **Port Inventory Analysis**: Multiple charts show the seasonal changes in the inventory of 45 ports, the inventory structure of iron ore at ports, the over - seasonal changes in inventory compared with the past 5 years, the seasonal changes in the inventory of different types of iron ore (such as lump ore, iron concentrate powder, etc.), and the proportion of different types of iron ore in port inventory [116][117][118]. - **Other Inventory Analysis**: Multiple charts show the seasonal changes in the inventory of imported iron ore in 247 steel enterprises, the combined inventory of in - plant and in - transit iron ore in steel mills, the estimated seasonal inventory turnover days of iron ore [132][133]. 3.5 Valuation Analysis - **Basis and Term Structure**: The report provides a table of iron ore warehouse receipt prices, showing the basis and delivery profits of different iron ore varieties. It also shows the seasonal changes in the basis of different iron ore futures contracts and the term structure of iron ore futures [134][136][137]. - **Rebar - Iron Ore Ratio and Hot - rolled Coil - Iron Ore Ratio**: Multiple charts show the seasonal changes in the rebar - iron ore ratio and hot - rolled coil - iron ore ratio of different contracts [138][139][141]. - **Coking Coal Ratio Analysis**: Multiple charts show the seasonal changes in the price difference between coking coal and iron ore of different contracts, and the relationship between coking coal and iron ore prices [143][144][147]. - **Scrap Steel Cost - effectiveness Analysis**: Multiple charts show the price difference between iron and scrap steel, the cost - effectiveness of scrap steel, and the relationship between the scrap steel consumption ratio of pure blast furnace enterprises and the price difference between iron and scrap steel [148][149][150].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant decline in non-ferrous metal stocks, with notable drops in companies such as Ganfeng Lithium, China Nonferrous Mining, and Shandong Gold [1] - The US dollar index has been rebounding continuously, surpassing the 99 mark, driven by a temporary risk aversion due to the potential government shutdown in the US [1] - International gold prices have sharply declined, with spot gold falling below $3960 per ounce, influenced by the strengthening dollar and easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [1] Group 2 - Citic Futures indicates that while copper prices are currently leading gains among base metals, there is a need for caution regarding potential pullbacks if no further macroeconomic positive factors emerge [1] - There are expectations of tighter supply and demand dynamics for copper, aluminum, and tin, which may lead to increased prices for base metals in the long term due to ongoing supply disruptions [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, Fed Chair Powell mentioned balancing inflation concerns and a weakening job market in future interest - rate decisions, with the US dollar index steady and global risk appetite cooling. Domestically, economic data such as consumption, investment, and industrial added - value in August were lower than previous values and market expectations, and the central bank adhered to an independent monetary policy. The market's short - term upward macro - drive has weakened, and attention should be paid to China - US trade negotiations and domestic incremental policies [2]. - Different asset classes have different trends: stock indices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a cautious long - position approach; treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate, with a cautious wait - and - see attitude; for commodities, black metals, energy chemicals, and glass are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a cautious wait - and - see approach; non - ferrous metals and precious metals are expected to fluctuate, with a cautious long - position approach [2]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - finance - Overseas, the Fed's interest - rate decision and the weakening job market impact the global situation. Domestically, economic data shows a slowdown in domestic demand, and the central bank adheres to an independent monetary policy. The short - term upward macro - drive weakens, and attention should be paid to China - US trade negotiations and domestic incremental policies. Stock indices and treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a cautious long - position for stock indices and a cautious wait - and - see for treasury bonds [2]. 3.2 Stock Indices - Affected by sectors such as tourism, hotels, biomedicine, and small metals, the domestic stock market declined slightly. Economic data shows a slowdown in domestic demand, and the central bank adheres to an independent monetary policy. The short - term upward macro - drive weakens, and attention should be paid to China - US trade negotiations and domestic incremental policies. Short - term cautious long - position is recommended [3]. 3.3 Black Metals 3.3.1 Steel - The domestic steel futures and spot markets slightly corrected on Tuesday, with low trading volume. Policy expectations were disappointed, and market risk - aversion increased. Demand weakened, but there were differences among varieties. Supply is regulated by policies. The short - term steel market is likely to fluctuate within a range [4]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - On Tuesday, iron ore futures and spot prices declined. Steel mills continued to replenish stocks before the National Day, and iron ore production increased. Global iron ore shipments decreased, while arrivals increased. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range, with a negative feedback risk after November [4][5]. 3.3.3 Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - On Tuesday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat, and the futures prices slightly declined. The price of silicon iron is supported by electricity costs, and the production reduction is limited. The futures prices of both are expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [5]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy 3.4.1 Copper - The manufacturing PMIs in the Eurozone and the UK were weaker than expected, and the previous recovery of the global manufacturing PMI was not sustainable. Copper concentrate production is high, and future demand may decline. The upside space is limited [7]. 3.4.2 Aluminum - On Tuesday, the aluminum price continued to fall, and the position decreased. After the Fed's interest - rate cut, non - ferrous metals returned to fundamental trading. The current aluminum fundamentals are weak, with slow inventory reduction and low - intensity demand recovery [7]. 3.4.3 Aluminum Alloy - The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and production costs are rising. It is in the off - season of demand, and orders are growing slowly. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the upside space is limited [8]. 3.4.4 Tin - The combined operating rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi is low, mainly affected by maintenance and tight ore supply, but the impact is expected to be short - term. Terminal demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, supported by maintenance and peak - season expectations, but the upside is under pressure [8]. 3.4.5 Lithium Carbonate - On Tuesday, the lithium carbonate futures price declined. The current supply and demand are both increasing, and the fundamentals are improving marginally. The price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the upper pressure range [9]. 3.4.6 Industrial Silicon - On Tuesday, the industrial silicon futures price declined. There is no obvious positive factor, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range [9]. 3.4.7 Polysilicon - On Tuesday, the polysilicon futures price declined. Spot prices have increased, and there are still strong policy expectations. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and attention should be paid to the support of spot prices [10]. 3.5 Energy and Chemicals 3.5.1 Crude Oil - The market is concerned about the increasing threat to Russian oil supply, and oil prices rebounded slightly. However, Iraq may resume exports, so the short - term oil price will continue to fluctuate [11]. 3.5.2 Asphalt - The rebound of oil prices drove asphalt prices up, but the peak - season demand is over, and there is still excess pressure. In the later stage, attention should be paid to the extent of following the increase of oil prices [11][12]. 3.5.3 PX - The PX futures price fluctuates with the polyester sector, with support from crude oil costs. The PXN spread has decreased, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly, with some support below [12]. 3.5.4 PTA - The stimulus of PTA production - cut rumors has ended, and there is no substantial news. Downstream demand has declined, and inventory has increased. Although there are cost supports, the futures price may decline under the influence of short - term capital [12]. 3.5.5 Ethylene Glycol - The ethylene glycol price remains in a low - level fluctuation. Port inventory has changed little, and downstream demand is weak. The price is expected to continue to fluctuate [13]. 3.5.6 Short - fiber - Short - fiber prices have declined slightly. Terminal orders have increased seasonally, but the increase is limited. Inventory has accumulated slightly, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the medium term [13]. 3.5.7 Methanol - The methanol price in Taicang fluctuates weakly. In the short term, the supply is still in excess, but in the medium - to - long - term, attention should be paid to the impact of imports in October, and there may be opportunities to go long [14]. 3.5.8 PP - The PP market price has declined. Although the downstream demand has improved, the supply is still abundant. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the peak - season demand [14]. 3.5.9 LLDPE - The LLDPE market price has declined. Supply has increased, and demand is less than expected. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, but there is some support from oil prices [15][16]. 3.5.10 Urea - The urea market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with inventory differentiation. The short - term pressure is high, and the price is expected to be weak [16]. 3.6 Agricultural Products 3.6.1 Corn - In the Northeast, the new - season corn is being harvested smoothly, with high opening prices. In North China, the price of new corn has declined, and the price of old corn is firm. In the sales area, the price is stable, and there is support from feed mills' replenishment. The market generally expects the price to decline during the peak - harvest period from mid - October to November [18]. 3.6.2 US Soybeans - The overnight CBOT soybean price increased slightly. Argentina's cancellation of export taxes on soybeans and other products has a negative impact, but there is some support from the downgrade of US soybean crop ratings and increased China - US contacts [18]. 3.6.3 Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - The domestic short - term supply - demand surplus situation remains unchanged. Argentina's cancellation of export taxes has limited impact on the domestic market. The overall supply in the fourth quarter is sufficient, and soybean meal should not be overly shorted [18]. 3.6.4 Oils - The soybean oil market has a situation of strong supply and weak demand. The rapeseed oil market is cautious due to Sino - Canadian trade relations, and inventory is decreasing. The palm oil market has improved export demand and decreased production, with positive data supporting the price [18]. 3.6.5 Pigs - Pig prices have reached a new low this year, and breeding profits have shrunk. The supply of pigs is sufficient, and demand is stable. The price is expected to stabilize in the second half of the month, with limited rebound space [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Overseas: The Fed announced an expected rate cut but hinted at no rush for rapid cuts in the coming months. The US initial jobless claims had the largest decline in nearly four years, the US dollar index continued to rebound, and global risk appetite increased. Domestically: China's August consumption, January - August investment, and industrial added - value growth were all lower than previous values and market expectations, with domestic demand continuing to slow. However, short - term external risk uncertainty decreased and domestic easing expectations increased, leading to an overall rise in domestic risk appetite. The recent market trading logic focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and easing expectations, with short - term macro upward drivers strengthening. [2] - For assets: The stock index is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with cautious short - term long positions. Treasury bonds will fluctuate in the short term, and it's advisable to watch cautiously. In the commodity sector, black, non - ferrous, and energy - chemical products will fluctuate in the short term, with cautious short - term watching; precious metals will fluctuate strongly at high levels in the short term, with cautious short - term long positions. [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Overseas: The Fed's rate cut, large decline in initial jobless claims led to the US dollar index rebound and increased global risk appetite. Domestically: Consumption, investment, and industrial added - value growth were lower than expected, with domestic demand slowing. Policies like the measures to expand service consumption were introduced. The trading logic focuses on domestic policies and easing expectations, with short - term upward drivers strengthening. [2] - Asset Recommendations: Stock index - short - term fluctuation, cautious short - term long; Treasury bonds - short - term fluctuation, cautious watching; black - short - term fluctuation, cautious watching; non - ferrous - short - term fluctuation, cautious watching; energy - chemical - short - term fluctuation, cautious watching; precious metals - short - term high - level strong fluctuation, cautious long. [2] Stock Index - The domestic stock market declined slightly due to the drag of sectors like humanoid robots, automobiles, and biomedicine. Fundamentals showed slow domestic demand. Policies aimed at expanding service consumption were introduced. Risk appetite increased. The trading logic focuses on policies and easing expectations, with short - term upward drivers strengthening. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended. [3] Black Metal - **Steel**: The steel futures and spot markets rebounded slightly. The Sino - US leaders' call and national meeting boosted market sentiment. Demand improved slightly but varied by variety, and supply decreased slightly. There were rumors of production restrictions in Tangshan. The market is likely to fluctuate in the short term. [4] - **Iron Ore**: Futures and spot prices rebounded. Steel mill profits narrowed but didn't trigger production cuts, and iron ore inventory increased due to pre - holiday restocking. Supply remained high, and port inventory increased slightly. The price will fluctuate in the short term. [4][5] - **Glass**: The glass market had stable supply and slightly improved demand but limited increments. With repeated policy sentiment, it will fluctuate in the short term. [6] Non - Ferrous and New Energy - **Copper**: The Fed's rate cut and positive Sino - US - Spanish economic and trade talks boosted market sentiment. However, copper demand may decline marginally, and the US economic slowdown restricts upward space. [7] - **Aluminum**: The price was flat. The recent increase was due to the Fed's rate cut and copper price spill - over, but the fundamentals are weak with increasing inventory. [7] - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Ferrosilicon**: Spot prices were flat, and futures prices declined slightly. Supply increased slightly. Silicon ferrosilicon prices were supported by cost, and the market will continue to fluctuate. [8] - **Soda Ash**: The market had high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. In the short term, supply and demand will increase with the arrival of the peak season and upstream maintenance. In the long term, supply - side contradictions will drag down the price. [8] - **Aluminum Alloy**: Waste aluminum supply is tight, and demand is weak in the off - season. The price will fluctuate strongly in the short term but with limited upward space. [9] - **Tin**: Supply - side开工率 was low but expected to recover. Demand was weak. Inventory decreased significantly this week. The price will fluctuate in the short term with limited upward space. [9] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Production reached a new high, and inventory decreased slightly. Supply and demand increased, and the market will fluctuate strongly with attention to the upper pressure range. [10] - **Industrial Silicon**: Production increased, and inventory increased slightly. Supply and demand increased, and the price will fluctuate strongly in the short term. [10] - **Polysilicon**: The downstream prices changed, and inventory decreased slightly. There were rumors of storage and capacity reduction policies. It's easy to rise and difficult to fall, and it's advisable to go long at low prices. [11] Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: The Fed's rate cut, good US inventory data, and geopolitical risks in Venezuela and Russia provided support to oil prices. The price will fluctuate with support in the short term. [12] - **Asphalt**: The price followed the stable oil price with limited upward space. Basis is decreasing, and inventory is not significantly reduced. It's necessary to pay attention to the follow - up increase with oil prices. [13][14] - **PX**: It will fluctuate weakly with support. The PXN spread decreased, and the polyester market declined. [8] - **PTA**: Downstream demand was weak, and inventory increased. However, low processing fees led to more maintenance plans, and there is support at the previous low. The price may decline in the short term. [8] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Port inventory increased, and demand was weak. The price will continue to fluctuate. [15] - **Short - Fibre**: It adjusted with the polyester sector. Terminal orders increased seasonally, and inventory increased slightly. The upward space is limited. [15] - **Methanol**: Supply was in excess, and high inventory pressured the price. [15] - **PP**: Production decreased due to maintenance, and downstream demand improved. However, supply remained loose, and the price will fluctuate weakly in the short term. [15] - **LLDPE**: Supply increased, and demand was weak. With low inventory and stable oil prices, the price will fluctuate weakly. [16] - **Urea**: Supply was strong, demand was weak, and inventory was divided. The market is under pressure in the short term. [16][17] Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: At the beginning of the US soybean listing, there were expectations of a decrease in the USDA - estimated yield. However, new harvests and lack of Chinese orders will increase downward pressure. [17] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The domestic short - term supply was in excess. It's expected to stabilize in late September and October due to supply contraction in the fourth quarter and potential adjustment of the USDA - estimated yield. Rapeseed meal follows the soybean meal market. [17] - **Oils and Fats**: International oil and oilseed prices weakened. Palm oil production may recover, and exports decreased. Domestic palm oil demand weakened, and inventory increased. Soybean oil supply was sufficient, and consumption support was limited. The market for rapeseed oil was cautious. The domestic oil market will fluctuate with downward pressure. [17] - **Corn**: The new corn in Northeast China was listed smoothly, and the price was stable. The price in North China continued to fall but at a slower pace. The price in the sales area was stable. There is an expectation of price decline during the concentrated listing period from mid - October to November. [17] - **Pork**: With pork purchases for storage and pre - holiday stocking, the pork price may have a phased stable rebound. [17]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the US plans to include more steel and aluminum derivatives in the tariff scope, increasing short - term tariff risks. The market is preparing for the Fed's rate cut this week, leading to a weaker dollar and rising global risk appetite. Domestically, China's consumption, investment, and industrial增加值 in August were lower than previous values and market expectations, with slowing domestic demand. The Ministry of Finance will advance the issuance of part of the new local government debt quota for 2026 and take multiple measures to resolve existing implicit debts. Short - term external risk uncertainty is reduced, and domestic easing expectations are enhanced, leading to an overall increase in domestic risk appetite. The recent market trading logic focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and easing expectations, with a strengthened short - term upward macro - drive. Attention should be paid to the progress of China - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies [3]. - Different asset classes have different trends: the stock index is short - term oscillating strongly, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; government bonds are short - term oscillating weakly, and cautious observation is advised; in the commodity sector, black metals are short - term oscillating, and short - term cautious observation is needed; non - ferrous metals are short - term oscillating strongly, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; energy and chemicals are short - term oscillating, and cautious observation is required; precious metals are short - term oscillating strongly at high levels, and cautious long positions are recommended [3]. Summary by Directory Macro - finance - Overseas, the US tariff risk increases, the dollar weakens, and global risk appetite rises. Domestically, economic data is lower than expected, domestic demand slows, but policy expectations are positive, and domestic risk appetite also increases. The trading logic focuses on domestic policies and easing expectations, and the short - term macro - drive is upward [3]. - Asset trends: the stock index is short - term oscillating strongly, government bonds are short - term oscillating weakly, black metals are short - term oscillating, non - ferrous metals are short - term oscillating strongly, energy and chemicals are short - term oscillating, and precious metals are short - term oscillating strongly at high levels [3]. Stock Index - Affected by sectors such as small metals, precious metals, and military industry, the domestic stock market declined slightly. Domestic economic data is weak, but policy expectations are positive, and risk appetite increases. The trading logic focuses on policies and easing expectations, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended [4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel spot and futures markets continued to rebound on Monday, but trading volume was low. Macroeconomic data in August was weak, increasing anti - involution expectations. Real - world demand is weak, with different trends among varieties. Supply has shown some changes, and the steel market is likely to oscillate in the short term [5]. - **Iron Ore**: The spot and futures prices of iron ore declined slightly on Monday. Iron - making water production increased, and supply is at a high level. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [5][6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot and futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese rebounded slightly on Monday. Supply is increasing slightly, and the market is in a state of game. The prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [6]. - **Soda Ash**: The main contract of soda ash was strong on Monday. Supply is increasing, and the pattern of over - supply remains. Demand is weak, and it should be treated with a medium - to - long - term bearish view, while being vigilant about short - term positive impacts [6]. - **Glass**: The main contract of glass was strong on Monday. Supply is stable, and demand has limited growth. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: Macroeconomic factors lead to a weaker dollar and a rise in copper prices. However, considering the global economic slowdown and weakening domestic demand, the upward space is limited [8]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices oscillated on Monday. Inventory increased unexpectedly, and the mid - term upward space is limited, with slow de - stocking expected [8]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, but the upward space is limited [9]. - **Tin**: Supply is affected by short - term factors, and demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the upward space is limited [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract of lithium carbonate rose on Monday. Supply and demand are both increasing, and the market is expected to oscillate and stabilize [10]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract of industrial silicon rose on Monday. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [10]. - **Polysilicon**: The main contract of polysilicon fell slightly on Monday. With rumors of storage and capacity reduction, the price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [11]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The market is weighing measures to restrict Russian oil and supply - surplus expectations. Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil facilities and the expected Fed rate cut provide short - term support for oil prices [12]. - **Asphalt**: The price of asphalt rebounded with the rise in oil prices. The upward space is limited, and attention should be paid to the follow - up with oil prices [13]. - **PX**: The price of PX rebounded slightly. It is in a tight pattern and is expected to oscillate in the short term [13]. - **PTA**: The price of PTA rebounded slightly. Downstream and terminal开工 rates have different recovery situations, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [13]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene glycol sector heated up slightly, but inventory increased, and downstream demand is limited. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [14]. - **Short - Fiber**: The price of short - fiber adjusted slightly. Terminal orders increased seasonally, but the upward space is limited, and it can be shorted on rallies in the medium term [14]. - **Methanol**: Supply is increasing, demand is weakening, and inventory is rising. However, there are some supporting factors, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [14]. - **PP**: Production decreased due to maintenance, and downstream demand improved, but supply is still loose. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [14]. - **LLDPE**: Supply increased, and demand improved slightly. With low inventory and a weak market sentiment, it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [15]. - **Urea**: Supply pressure is expected to increase. Demand is weak, and the price is expected to decline in the medium - to - long - term, but short - term support may come from downstream replenishment [16][17]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The price of US soybeans declined slightly. Export inspection data was better than expected, and Brazilian drought may support the market [18]. - **Soybean Meal/Rapeseed Meal**: The domestic short - term supply - demand situation is surplus. The supply pressure of soybean meal is large, and the price is expected to improve in late September and October. Rapeseed meal has high inventory, but there is an upward basis in the later period [19]. - **Oils and Fats**: The supply of soybean oil is sufficient, and consumption support is limited. The supply of rapeseed oil decreased. The production of palm oil in Malaysia is affected by floods, and domestic demand is weakening, with increasing inventory [20][21]. - **Corn**: The initial listing price of new - season corn is chaotic, with a slight year - on - year increase. The price is expected to be strong, and the futures price has low - valuation support [21]. - **Pigs**: The planned slaughter of large - scale pig farms increased in September, demand has no obvious increase, and the price rebound expectation is reduced. There may be pressure on the price from October to November, which may promote capacity reduction [21].

Core Insights - The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session in October 2025 to discuss the "14th Five-Year Plan" and analyze the current economic situation [1] - The report indicates that while the easing of US-China tensions and better-than-expected economic data in the first half of the year have reduced the urgency for additional stimulus policies, there remains a need for flexibility and foresight in macroeconomic policy [1] - The potential for "timely" incremental policy adjustments exists if external risks increase or domestic economic pressures mount in the second half of the year [1] Economic Policy Outlook - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining a backstop in policy, suggesting that the government is prepared to act if necessary [1] - Continuous monitoring of external risks and domestic fundamentals is crucial for future policy decisions [1] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" will provide definitive industry clues that should be closely observed [1]