不仅仅是创新药，低迷数年的院外医药赛道也正重新成为公募基金卡位时代的新机会。 券商中国记者注意到，随着关税因素促使内需消费成为公募基金二季度挖掘股票的核心考量，叠加院外医药市 场复苏，今年四月底开始，易方达、广发、华夏、平安基金等多家头部公募基金频频调研各大连锁药店上市公 司，甚至有非医药的A股基金经理将十大重仓股席位几乎一半都安排在连锁药店赛道上，凸显出闭店潮强弩之 末时，基金经理已嗅到行业见底反转的机遇。 与A股基金经理策略相互呼应的是，虽然日本也在经历药店闭店潮，但今年一季度开始有全球著名的基金产品 在日本市场重仓四只连锁药店股票并大幅度获利，多个重仓中国连锁药店的A股基金经理则解释核心逻辑是挖 掘该赛道行业反转的可能性，并关注该赛道在经营场景中逐步增加慢病管理、宠物经济、保健品、药妆甚至彩 票等多元化业务带来的天花板突破机会。 闭店潮强弩之末，公募重新审视连锁药店赛道 在经历连续两年的闭店潮后，公募基金眼中的院外医药行业正迎来底部的战略性机会。 "连锁药店未来十年的需求是十分强劲的，消费支出场景可能不仅仅是用户进店买药，过去两年的关店潮会促 使市场集中度进一步提升，从而强化和增厚行业龙头的份额占有率和 ...

市场消息：美国第二大连锁药店来德爱（Rite Aid）计划第二次申请破产，并宣布裁员。 ...

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 26.497 billion yuan in 2024, representing an 8.01% increase, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 915 million yuan, down 21.58% [1] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 6.956 billion yuan, a 3.02% increase, and a net profit of 460 million yuan, up 15.45% [2] - The company is focusing on optimizing its store layout and enhancing management efficiency as it enters a consolidation phase after completing its cross-province expansion [3] Revenue and Profit Analysis - In 2024, the company's Chinese and Western medicine revenue was 19.968 billion yuan, up 12.82%, with a gross margin of 30.00%, down 1.16 percentage points [2] - The revenue from traditional Chinese medicine was 2.945 billion yuan, down 0.99%, with a gross margin of 42.32%, down 0.56 percentage points [2] - Non-pharmaceutical revenue was 2.948 billion yuan, down 9.52%, with a gross margin of 41.72%, down 1.80 percentage points [2] Store Expansion and Management - As of Q1 2025, the company had a total of 16,622 stores across 21 provinces, with a net increase of 2,479 stores in 2024 [3] - The company closed 733 stores in 2024, while in Q1 2025, it opened 54 new stores and closed 174 [3] - The gross margin for 2024 was 34.33%, down 1.58 percentage points, attributed to declining consumer spending and a higher number of new stores in the cultivation phase [3] Technological Advancements - The company is embracing AI technology, launching systems for automatic replenishment, intelligent site selection, and smart promotions to enhance operational management [4] - The implementation of digital upgrades is expected to improve management efficiency, with sales and management expense ratios of 23.37% and 4.65%, respectively, showing slight increases [3] Investment Outlook - The company is projected to have EPS of 0.97, 1.14, and 1.35 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4] - As a leading chain pharmacy, the company is expected to benefit from ongoing industry consolidation and the trend of prescription outflow, which may enhance profitability [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 17.45 RMB [8][9]. Core Views - The company's revenue and net profit for 2024 are projected to be 1.8 billion and 114 million RMB, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.6% in revenue but a significant decline of 79.2% in net profit due to high base effects from the previous year and increased impairment provisions [1]. - In Q1 2025, the company experienced a revenue decline of 6.5% year-on-year, with net profit down by 33.8%, attributed to intensified industry competition and rising sales expense ratios [1]. - The company is expected to improve its store operational quality, which may lead to better performance in the future [1]. Revenue and Profitability - Retail business revenue for 2024 is expected to grow steadily to 13.374 billion RMB, with a 3.1% year-on-year increase, driven by a 2.5% increase in pharmaceutical retail sales [2]. - The company has streamlined its store count in Q1 2025, resulting in a total of 11,451 stores, a decrease of 47 stores compared to the end of 2024 [2]. - The new retail business saw a significant growth of 47.6% year-on-year, with total sales reaching 1.293 billion RMB in 2024 [3]. Cost Structure and Margins - The sales expense ratio increased to 23.98% in Q1 2025, reflecting a rise in sales investments, while the gross margin improved slightly to 31.84% [4]. - The company’s gross margin for 2024 was reported at 31.79%, showing a year-on-year decline of 1.21% [4]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 600 million, 670 million, and 750 million RMB, respectively, with a significant increase of 426.55% in 2025 [5]. - The report predicts a PE ratio of 17x for 2025, aligning with the average of comparable companies, and sets a target price of 17.45 RMB based on this valuation [5][16].

摘要 连锁药店行业近况更新 20250414 Q&A 2025 年第一季度以来，连锁药店行业的关店情况如何？与 2024 年相比有何变 化？ 截至 2025 年第一季度，连锁药店行业的营业执照注销数量接近 14,000 家，根 据中康的数据具体为 13,900 多家。相比之下，2024 年第一季度关店数量为 6,700 多家，同比增速翻了一番。2024 年全年关店数量为 39,700 多家，其中第 四季度关店速度最快，达到 17,000 多家。根据行业机构预测，包括 Deep Tech 在内，今年（2025 年）可能会有 10 万家药店关闭，有些估计在 5 到 6 万家左 • 2024 年药店关店数量达 39,700 多家，同比增速翻番，预计 2025 年关店数 量将达 5-10 万家，主要受药品追溯码监管、电商法及金税四期上线影响， 小型单体药房面临更大经营压力。 • 药品追溯码政策加速落地，要求所有药品可追溯来源，避免窜货和回流药 问题，已在十六七个省份提前实施，6 月 1 日后未完成将面临处罚，倒逼 单体药店加快执行进度。 • 国家医保资金监管力度显著加强，2024 年追回 254 亿元，严查套取医保行 ...

Group 1: Key Recommendations - The report highlights Vanadium Titanium Co., Ltd. (000629) as a key recommendation, indicating that high-end production capacity is being gradually released, suggesting an impending profit turning point [8] - The report notes that the company achieved a revenue of 13.209 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 8.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 285 million yuan, down 73.0% year-on-year [8][9] - The report emphasizes the structural changes in downstream demand, with an increase in vanadium demand in non-steel applications, particularly in energy storage [9] Group 2: Industry Insights - The vanadium market is currently experiencing an oversupply, with the average market price of vanadium pentoxide in 2024 at approximately 80,500 yuan per ton, a year-on-year decrease of 25.9% [9] - The titanium dioxide market is also facing oversupply due to weak demand in downstream sectors such as real estate and coatings, with the company’s titanium dioxide revenue in 2024 reaching 3.517 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.5% [10] - The report forecasts that the company plans to produce 52,500 tons of vanadium products and 22,550 tons of sulfuric acid titanium dioxide in 2025, indicating a focus on expanding production capacity [11] Group 3: Market Performance - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector saw an overall increase of 0.98% in the last week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.97 percentage points [12] - The report indicates that the PE valuation for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector is currently at 27.11 times, which is at a historically low level [12] - The report suggests that the recent performance of innovative drugs has been strong, with several companies reporting excellent earnings data [14]