Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant growth in the production of primary plastic forms in Beijing, with a notable increase in both monthly and cumulative production figures for April 2025 compared to the previous year [1] - In April 2025, the production of primary plastic forms reached 93,000 tons, representing an 18.7% year-on-year increase, which is 33.7 percentage points higher than the same period last year [1] - The growth rate in April 2025 was 6.7 percentage points higher than the national average, with Beijing's production accounting for 0.8% of the national total of 11,686,000 tons [1] Group 2 - From January to April 2025, the cumulative production of primary plastic forms in Beijing was 357,000 tons, showing a 9.0% year-on-year increase, which is 16.8 percentage points higher than the previous year [1] - The cumulative growth rate for the first four months of 2025 was 1.1 percentage points lower than the national average, with Beijing's production also representing 0.8% of the national total of 4,601,200 tons [1]

徐绍祖（联系人） 供需双弱不变， 宏观情绪回暖 聚烯烃周报 2025/07/26 18665881888 xushaozu@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03115061 交易咨询号： Z0022675 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 聚乙烯供给端 07 聚丙烯供给端 02 期现市场 05 聚乙烯库存&进出口 08 聚丙烯库存&进出口 03 成本端 06 聚乙烯需求端 09 聚丙烯需求端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 政策端：宏观预期转强，化工企业响应"反内卷"政策，国内资本市场情绪回暖。 ◆ 估值：聚乙烯周度涨幅（成本＞期货＞现货），聚丙烯周度涨幅（期货＞成本＞现货）。 ◆ 成本端：上周WTI原油下跌-1.70%，Brent原油下跌-0.01%，煤价上涨1.88%，甲醇上涨1.24%，乙烯上涨1.56%，丙烯上涨0.80%， 丙烷下跌-2.35%。成本端价格涨跌各异。 ◆ 供应端：PE产能利用率80.26%，环比上涨2.07%，同比去年上涨5.84%，较5年同期下降-6.41%。PP产能利用率76.58%，环比下降- 1.40%，同比去年上涨4.89%，较5年同期 ...

Group 1 - High Energy Environment reported a net profit of 502 million yuan for the first half of 2025, an increase of 20.85% year-on-year, while revenue decreased by 11.20% to 6.7 billion yuan [1] - Angel Yeast plans to acquire 55% of Shengtong Sugar Industry for 506 million yuan, which will make Shengtong a subsidiary [1] - Wentech Technology's shareholders plan to reduce their holdings by up to 1% of the company's shares, amounting to approximately 12.45 million shares [1][2] Group 2 - *ST Zhengping clarified that it is not involved in the Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project, despite market speculation [2] - Aidi Te announced that two shareholders plan to reduce their holdings by up to 3% of the company's shares, totaling approximately 319,690 shares [3] - *ST Baoying intends to publicly transfer 50.1% of its stake in Danhua Renewable Energy for an initial price of 30 million yuan, expecting a loss of about 29.4 million yuan [5] Group 3 - Yaoji Technology's controlling shareholder plans to reduce their holdings by up to 3% of the company's shares, approximately 1.25 million shares [6] - China Haicheng reported a net profit of 152 million yuan for the first half of 2025, an increase of 8.52% year-on-year, with total revenue of 2.745 billion yuan [8] - Shenzhou Information's major shareholder plans to reduce their holdings by up to 0.97%, approximately 9.5 million shares [9] Group 4 - Betaini's major shareholder plans to reduce their holdings by up to 2%, approximately 842,590 shares [10] - Guotou Intelligent's shareholders plan to reduce their holdings by up to 1.35%, approximately 11.59 million shares [12] - Shen Shui Institute confirmed it is not participating in the Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project [14] Group 5 - Xidi Micro announced a risk of losing control over its subsidiary Zinitix due to alleged misconduct by current directors [15] - Tiantian Technology's controlling shareholder plans to reduce their holdings by up to 3%, approximately 38.95 million shares [17] - Ningbo Color Master announced a plan to reduce holdings by up to 1.38%, approximately 231,550 shares [19] Group 6 - Dongguan Holdings plans to publicly transfer 20% of its stake in Dongguan Songshan Lake Microfinance Company for a base price of 48.12 million yuan [21] - Bohai Leasing's subsidiary Avolon intends to purchase 15 A330NEO and 75 A321NEO aircraft from Airbus [22] - Dongfang Fortune reported that shareholder Shen Yougen's stake has decreased to 0.19% after transferring 158.8 million shares [23] Group 7 - Quanzhu Co. plans to raise up to 180 million yuan through a private placement to fund AI-based projects [24] - Zhongjin Gold announced that its subsidiary in Inner Mongolia has ceased operations following a tragic incident [25] - *ST Xinchao has changed its chairman and legal representative, appointing Zhang Junyu as the new chairman [27]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the plastics industry is "Oscillating Upward" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests a strategy of buying on dips or implementing a 09 - 01 reverse spread. Although there are issues such as high inventory and low - season demand in the plastics industry, the upcoming release of a new round of stability - growth work plans for key industries and the elimination of old and backward devices are expected to improve market sentiment [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - On July 24, the plastic operating rate remained at around 87%, a neutral level. The PE downstream operating rate rose 0.64 percentage points to 38.51%, still at a relatively low level in recent years. The petrochemical de - stocking speed has accelerated, but the inventory is still high. The coal price has risen significantly due to production checks. With new capacity coming on - stream and restart of some devices, the plastic operating rate has increased slightly. Considering the upcoming policies and market sentiment improvement, it is recommended to buy on dips or implement a 09 - 01 reverse spread [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The plastics 2509 contract oscillated upward with a decrease in positions, closing at 7385 yuan/ton, up 0.89%. The trading volume decreased by 16,764 lots to 371,617 lots [2] - Spot: The PE spot market showed mixed price movements, with price changes ranging from - 30 to + 50 yuan/ton. LLDPE was priced at 7160 - 7440 yuan/ton, LDPE at 9280 - 9630 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 7620 - 8250 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On July 24, the number of overhaul devices changed little, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 87%, a neutral level [4] - Demand: As of the week of July 18, the PE downstream operating rate rose 0.64 percentage points to 38.51%. The agricultural film is in the off - season with a slight decrease in orders, while packaging film orders increased slightly. The overall downstream operating rate is still at a relatively low level in recent years [4] - Inventory: The petrochemical early inventory on Thursday decreased by 15,000 tons to 750,000 tons, 40,000 tons higher than the same period last year. The de - stocking speed has accelerated, but the inventory is still high [4] - Raw Materials: Brent crude oil's October contract oscillated around $68/barrel. The Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $830/ton, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price also remained flat at $820/ton [4]

Group 1 - In May 2025, the production of primary plastic in China reached 11.90 million tons, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.2%, which is an increase of 5.9 percentage points compared to the same month last year [1] - From January to May 2025, the cumulative production of primary plastic was 58.10 million tons, with a year-on-year growth of 10.1%, showing an increase of 3.8 percentage points compared to the same period last year [3] - The growth trend in primary plastic production indicates a continued expansion in the industry, reflecting positive market dynamics [1][3] Group 2 - The definition of primary plastic includes materials previously known as plastic resins and copolymers before 2004 [4] - The threshold for scale industrial enterprises was raised from an annual main business income of 5 million yuan to 20 million yuan starting in 2011 [4]

Group 1: Core Insights - The competition in the electric vehicle (EV) market is intensifying, with a focus on extending driving range through lightweight materials [1] - Jingbo has launched the LA640T high-impact copolymer polypropylene, which redefines automotive interior lightweight standards by balancing lightweight and high strength [1][2] - The LA640T material significantly reduces weight in key components, contributing to improved EV range and energy efficiency [2] Group 2: Material Innovations - The LA640T polypropylene features an exceptional melt flow index of 66.0g/10min, doubling the processing efficiency compared to standard high melt flow polypropylene [2] - The material's density (0.90~0.91g/cm³) and high flow characteristics allow for substantial weight reductions, such as 4KG less for the dashboard skeleton compared to steel [2] - The innovative design of LA640T enhances safety and comfort by improving energy absorption in side impacts while maintaining structural integrity [3] Group 3: Sustainability and Future Directions - Jingbo aims to promote the rapid growth of modified polypropylene in strategic emerging industries through continuous technological and service innovations [4] - The company is focused on developing high-performance, low-energy, and recyclable materials, expanding its chemical recycling polypropylene product line [4] - Future developments will emphasize high performance, green low-carbon solutions, and the global commercialization of recycling technologies [4]

完善期货品种 深化市场开放 我国正从塑料生产大国加快向强国转型，如何增强我国企业在国际市场中的话语权成为业内焦点。近 日，大连商品交易所(以下简称大商所)于大连召开的提升塑料期货价格影响力研讨会上，参会代表围绕 更好发挥期货市场功能作用、服务中国塑料"走出去"积极建言献策。 记者了解到，我国塑料产业规模全球第一，但定价方式却长期受制于人。2024年，我国塑料产量占全球 比重接近30%，聚氯乙烯(PVC)、聚丙烯(PP)等品种出口增速均超过50%，东南亚以及非洲、南美等新 兴市场成为中国塑料的重要出口目的地。然而，塑料品种的国际贸易定价多依赖于境外现货价格指数或 直接采取"一口价"模式，缺乏透明度和公允性，难以匹配我国企业的全球布局需求。 对此，多位企业代表认为，当前塑料期货已逐步成为国内现货贸易重要的定价基准，未来进一步提升塑 料期货价格影响力、探索推动塑料期货在国际贸易定价中的应用，将有助于我国企业将生产优势转化为 市场优势，增强中国价格的国际影响力和化工企业的国际竞争力。 有代表提出，提升塑料期货价格影响力的首要任务是丰富期货品种供给。浙江明日控股集团董事长韩新 伟表示："塑料品种类别牌号众多，无论境内还 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年7月23日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年6月PVC产量为199.134万吨，环比减少1.40%；本周样本企业产能利 用率为77.59%，环比增加0.01个百分点；电石法企业产量34.032万吨，环比增加0.63%,乙烯法企业产 量11.589万吨，环比增加1.31%；本周供给压力有所增加；下周预计检修有所减少，预计排产增加幅度 可观。 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为40.11%，环比减少1个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游型材开工率为 34.55%，环比持平，低于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为33.75%，环比减少3.92个百分点，低于历 史平均水平；下游薄膜开工率 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the plastics industry is "Oscillating Upward" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The plastics market is expected to experience a strong oscillation in the near future. It is recommended to switch to buying on dips or engage in a 09 - 01 reverse spread strategy. This is due to factors such as the restart of previously shut - down production facilities, the impact of coal price increases on costs, the current situation of downstream demand, and positive market sentiment driven by government policies [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - On July 22, the restart of maintenance devices in Zhejiang Petrochemical Phase II LDPE and Shanghai SECCO HDPE led to the plastics operating rate rising to around 87%, currently at a neutral level. The downstream PE operating rate increased by 0.64 percentage points to 38.51% week - on - week. Although the agricultural film is in the off - season with a slight decrease in orders, packaging film orders increased slightly. The overall downstream PE operating rate is still at a relatively low level in recent years. The de - stocking speed of petrochemicals was slow last week, and petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in recent years. Due to coal production inspections, coal prices have risen significantly. With new production capacity coming on - stream and the restart of maintenance devices, and considering government policies, it is recommended to buy on dips or engage in a 09 - 01 reverse spread [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The plastics 2509 contract reduced positions and oscillated upward, with a low of 7264 yuan/ton, a high of 7373 yuan/ton, and a final closing price of 7368 yuan/ton, above the 60 - day moving average, up 1.26%. The open interest decreased by 13,406 lots to 394,148 lots [2] - **Spot**: Most of the PE spot market prices rose, with price changes ranging from - 50 to + 50 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 7130 - 7440 yuan/ton, LDPE at 9240 - 9630 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 7660 - 8220 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: On July 18, there were few changes in maintenance devices, and the plastics operating rate remained at around 84%, currently at a neutral level [4] - **Demand**: As of the week of July 18, the downstream PE operating rate increased by 0.64 percentage points to 38.51% week - on - week. The agricultural film is in the off - season, with a slight decrease in orders, while packaging film orders increased slightly. The overall downstream PE operating rate is still at a relatively low level in recent years [4] - **Inventory**: Petrochemical early - morning inventory on Tuesday decreased by 30,000 tons to 790,000 tons compared to the previous day, 25,000 tons higher than the same period last year. The de - stocking speed of petrochemicals was slow last week, and petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in recent years [4] - **Raw Materials**: The Brent crude oil 09 contract fell to $68/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $830/ton week - on - week, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene also remained flat at $820/ton [4]

Group 1 - The U.S. has postponed the deadline for "reciprocal tariffs" to August 1, causing concerns in Taiwan regarding the tax rates to be imposed [1][2] - A report from a survey of 238 companies indicates that over 50% have already felt the direct impact of the proposed tariffs, with more than half predicting a revenue decrease of 10% to 30% if tariffs rise to 20% [1][2] - Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), particularly those with fewer than 50 employees, are expected to be hit hardest, with 35.8% forecasting revenue drops exceeding 30% [1][2] Group 2 - Traditional industries, such as rubber manufacturing, are projected to suffer the most, with over 60% of firms expecting revenue declines of more than 30% if tariffs are implemented [2] - The report aligns with recent statistics from Taiwan's Ministry of Economic Affairs, showing a significant drop in export orders to the U.S. for traditional industries [2] - Although high-tech sectors like electronics have seen an increase in orders, this is attributed to U.S. firms stockpiling, and over 40% of high-tech companies anticipate future revenue declines due to potential tariff expansions [2][4] Group 3 - The report identifies five structural challenges faced by SMEs in Taiwan, including currency volatility and rising industrial electricity prices [3] - Policy recommendations include stabilizing the exchange rate and reviewing energy policies to support affected industries [3] - The potential economic impact of U.S. and Chinese economic downturns on Taiwan's economy is highlighted, with estimates suggesting a 0.29% decline for every 1% drop in the U.S. economy [3] Group 4 - The appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar has led to significant foreign exchange losses for companies, with one major postal service reporting a loss of 140.3 billion NTD due to currency fluctuations [4][5] - The hospitality sector is also feeling the effects, with hotels reporting decreased revenue due to reduced international tourist arrivals linked to both tariffs and currency appreciation [4][5] - Concerns are raised about the lack of transparency in tariff negotiations, with political implications affecting economic stability and business confidence [5][6]