Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Guosen Securities maintains an "outperform" rating for China Nonferrous Mining (01258), projecting revenue growth for 2025-2027 with expected revenues of $3.632 billion, $4.730 billion, and $4.950 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of -4.8%, 30.2%, and 4.7% respectively [1] - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period is $480 million, $518 million, and $631 million, with year-on-year growth rates of 20.5%, 7.7%, and 21.9% respectively [1] - The diluted EPS is expected to be $0.12, $0.13, and $0.16, with current price-to-earnings ratios of 14.7, 13.7, and 11.2 times [1] Group 2 - In the third quarter, the company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately $35.6 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.38%, with quarterly profits of approximately $12.3 million, $14.0 million, and $9.3 million for Q1, Q2, and Q3 respectively, showing a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 33.57% in Q3 [2] - The company produced approximately 54,200 tons of crude copper and anode copper from its own mines, a year-on-year decrease of about 6%, while the production of cathode copper remained stable at approximately 63,900 tons [2] - The total copper production from the company's own mines for the first three quarters was approximately 118,100 tons, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of about 3% [2] - The company announced in June that it would acquire 10.5% of the issued share capital of SM Minerals through a share subscription, with the funds primarily allocated for technical exploration and development of the Bonkara mining project [2] - The Bonkara North mining rights hold approximately 1.5 million tons of copper metal, providing sufficient resources for large-scale mining operations [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Guosen Securities maintains an "outperform" rating for China Nonferrous Mining (01258), projecting revenue growth from 2025 to 2027 with expected revenues of $36.32 billion, $47.30 billion, and $49.50 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of -4.8%, 30.2%, and 4.7% respectively [1] - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period is $4.80 billion, $5.18 billion, and $6.31 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 20.5%, 7.7%, and 21.9% respectively [1] - The diluted EPS is expected to be $0.12, $0.13, and $0.16, with current stock prices corresponding to PE ratios of 14.7, 13.7, and 11.2 times [1] Group 2 - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately $3.56 billion for the first three quarters, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.38%, with quarterly profits of approximately $1.23 billion, $1.40 billion, and $0.93 billion for Q1, Q2, and Q3 respectively, showing a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 33.57% in Q3 [2] - The production of copper from the company's own mines was approximately 54,200 tons for crude copper and anode copper, a year-on-year decrease of about 6%, while the production of cathode copper was approximately 63,900 tons, remaining stable year-on-year [2] - The total copper production from the company's own mines for the first three quarters was approximately 118,100 tons, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of about 3% [2] - The company announced in June that it would acquire 10.5% of the issued share capital of SMMinerals through a share subscription, with the subscription price mainly allocated for technical exploration and development of the Bonkara mining project [2] - The Bonkara North mining rights owned by SMMinerals have an estimated copper metal reserve of approximately 1.5 million tons, providing sufficient resources for large-scale mining operations [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Chifeng Gold [2][12]. Core Views - Chifeng Gold's performance is accelerating due to continuous optimization of mining and gold selection plans, with significant growth in revenue and net profit [3][6]. - The company achieved a revenue of 8.644 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.91%, and a net profit of 2.058 billion yuan, up 86.21% year-on-year [3][12]. - The third quarter saw a revenue of 3.372 billion yuan, reflecting a 66.39% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 951 million yuan, up 140.98% year-on-year [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first three quarters, the total gold production was 10,705.28 kg, a slight decrease of 0.41% year-on-year, while sales were 10,669.23 kg, down 2.56% year-on-year [4]. - The third quarter's gold production was 3,951 kg, an increase of 23.55% year-on-year, driven by improved production lines and mining operations [4][5]. - The average selling price of gold increased by 44.13% year-on-year, leading to a rise in gross margin from 41.96% in Q3 2024 to 49.89% in Q3 2025 [5][6]. Cost and Profitability - The all-in sustaining cost for gold production was 356.37 yuan per gram, up 24.81% year-on-year, with domestic costs at 256.88 yuan per gram [5][6]. - The company's profitability improved significantly, with the return on equity (ROE) rising from 16.66% to 20.14% [6][12]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 13.319 billion yuan, 15.631 billion yuan, and 17.654 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to be 3.244 billion yuan, 3.969 billion yuan, and 4.701 billion yuan [12][13]. - The company anticipates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.3% for gold production from 2025 to 2027 [4][12].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs reports that Luoyang Molybdenum (3993.HK) achieved a 96% year-on-year increase in net profit for Q3, reaching 5.61 billion RMB, with recurring net profit for the first three quarters at 14.1 billion RMB, exceeding expectations [1] Financial Performance - The recurring net profit for the first three quarters is approximately 75% of Goldman Sachs' full-year forecast and about 82% of market expectations [1] - The company’s Q3 net profit growth is attributed to rising copper prices and a recovery in cobalt prices [1] Earnings Forecast - Goldman Sachs has raised its recurring profit forecast for Luoyang Molybdenum for 2025 to 2027 by 8% to 32% [1] - The copper production forecast for 2028 to 2030 has been increased by 30% to 1 million tons [1] Growth Drivers - The expected average compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for recurring profits from 2025 to 2026 is projected to be 38% due to rising copper prices and cobalt price recovery [1] - The anticipated production of 1 million tons of copper in 2028 and the launch of the Cangrejos gold-copper project are expected to drive profit growth from 2028 to 2029 [1] Investment Rating - Goldman Sachs maintains a "Buy" rating for Luoyang Molybdenum, raising the target price from 10.8 HKD to 19 HKD [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The non - ferrous metals sector is warming up after the repair of risk - aversion sentiment. With the adjustment of precious metals recently, many non - ferrous varieties have received support from capital inflows and题材, showing a recovery. Attention should be paid to the rotation and resonance of the sector. [12] - Policy expectations remain positive in the long - term. The 14th Five - Year Plan in China focuses on the real economy, and non - ferrous metals, as important raw material providers, will continue to be in the spotlight. [10] - Economic data in China shows both resilience and pressure. While the real estate sector is under pressure, the manufacturing sector performs well. There is also an increasing expectation of interest - rate cuts in the US. [11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operation Logic and Investment Recommendations - **Macro - logic**: Sino - US trade relations have eased, risk preference has recovered, and the non - ferrous metals sector has shown a recovery under the leadership of copper. Policy expectations are positive, economic data shows a mixed picture, and interest - rate cut expectations are strengthening. [10][11] - **Variety - specific analysis**: - **Copper**: The US market's siphon effect causes a structural contradiction in global copper inventories. Supply constraints are increasing, while demand is expected to enter the peak season. It is recommended to go long on dips, with a short - term upper pressure range of 89,000 - 90,000 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 84,000 - 85,000 yuan/ton. Consider the reverse - arbitrage opportunity between the 2512 and 2601 contracts. [3][13] - **Aluminum industry chain**: For aluminum, aluminum oxide, and recycled aluminum alloy, a bullish approach is recommended. Buy out - of - the - money options for protection. [5] - **Tin**: The market is in a short - term bullish state. Pay attention to the impact of other non - ferrous varieties, the situation of the ore end, and macro - factors. Consider buying out - of - the - money put options. [5] - **Zinc**: The rebound is volatile. The upper pressure is around 22,500 - 22,600, and the lower support is around 21,700 - 21,800. Buy a bull spread at low levels or continue to sell out - of - the - money put options. [6] - **Lead**: The price is in a short - term bullish consolidation. The lower support is 17,300 - 17,500, and the upper pressure is 17,800 - 18,000. A covered - call strategy is recommended. [6] - **Nickel and stainless steel**: For nickel, a slightly bullish approach at low levels is recommended. Stainless steel is in a range - bound state. [6] 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - **Futures weekly performance**: Copper rose 3.95% to 87,720 yuan/ton, zinc rose 2.48% to 22,355 yuan/ton, aluminum rose 1.12% to 21,225 yuan/ton, etc. [17] 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - **Spot prices and changes**: The Yangtze River Non - ferrous copper spot price was 86,530 yuan/ton, up 1.16%; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 0 zinc spot average price was 22,190 yuan/ton, up 0.36%; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous aluminum spot average price was 21,110 yuan/ton, up 0.38%, etc. [22] 3.4 Fourth Part: Key Data Tracking of Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - **Copper**: Track data such as exchange copper inventories, SMM social copper inventories, copper concentrate smelting fees, etc. [23][24] - **Zinc**: Track zinc inventories, zinc concentrate processing fees, zinc spot prices, etc. [25][26] - **Aluminum**: Track data related to aluminum inventories, prices, production capacity, etc. [34][36] - **Aluminum oxide**: Track spot prices, port inventories, production capacity, and import data. [37][38] - **Tin**: Track prices, inventories, and tin concentrate processing fees. [43][44] - **Lead**: Track futures inventories, LME inventories, and processing fees. [50][51] - **Nickel**: Track futures inventories, LME inventories, and spot premiums. [57][58] - **Stainless steel**: Track warehouse receipts, inventories, and production data. [62][63] 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - **Copper**: Consider the reverse - arbitrage between the 2512 and 2601 contracts due to supply - side force majeure. [17] - **Aluminum oxide**: Consider the reverse - arbitrage between the 2502 and 2509 contracts as the near - strong and far - weak structure returns. [17] 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options - **Copper**: The implied volatility of copper options is high. Consider selling near - month slightly out - of - the - money put options to collect premiums. [4] - **Zinc**: Buy a bull spread or sell out - of - the - money put options. [6] - **Aluminum**: Consider buying out - of - the - money put options for protection. [5]

Core Viewpoint - China Nonferrous Mining (01258) has seen a stock price increase of 2.91%, reaching HKD 14.50, with a trading volume of HKD 143 million, following the announcement of a projected profit increase for the upcoming financial period [1] Financial Performance - For the nine months ending September 30, 2025, the company estimates a profit attributable to shareholders of approximately USD 356 million, representing a year-on-year growth of about 13% [1] - The primary drivers for this growth are attributed to the rise in international copper prices and an increase in the production and sales volume of cathode copper compared to the previous year [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Nonferrous Mining (01258) shares rose over 3%, reaching HKD 14.53 with a trading volume of HKD 136 million, following the announcement of a projected profit increase for the nine months ending September 30, 2025 [1] Financial Performance - The company estimates a profit attributable to shareholders of approximately USD 356 million, representing a year-on-year growth of about 13% [1] - The increase in economic indicators is primarily driven by the rise in international copper prices and an increase in cathode copper production and sales [1] Production Metrics - For the nine months ending September 30, 2025, the company produced approximately 107,700 tons of cathode copper (including copper product processing services), a year-on-year increase of about 12%, achieving 77% of the annual production target [1] - The production of cathode copper from its own mines was approximately 63,900 tons, remaining stable compared to the same period last year [1] - The total production of crude copper and anode copper (including copper product processing services) was approximately 307,600 tons, a year-on-year increase of about 7%, also achieving 77% of the annual production target [1] - The production of crude copper and anode copper from its own mines was approximately 54,200 tons, a year-on-year decrease of about 6% [1] - The company produced approximately 788,300 tons of sulfuric acid, a year-on-year increase of about 2%, completing 79% of the annual production target [1] - The production of cobalt hydroxide (containing cobalt) was approximately 676 tons, a year-on-year decrease of about 12%, achieving 75% of the annual production target [1] - The production of liquid sulfur dioxide was approximately 1,442 tons, a significant year-on-year decrease of about 90%, completing only 14% of the annual production target [1]

Core Viewpoint - Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. reported strong financial performance for the first three quarters, achieving record high net profit and revenue growth, indicating robust operational efficiency and market demand [1] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters, the company achieved operating revenue of 145.485 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 14.280 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 72.61% [1] - The third quarter alone saw a net profit of 5.608 billion yuan, marking a significant year-on-year growth of 96.40% [1] - Revenue from the mining segment reached 56.594 billion yuan, accounting for nearly 40% of total revenue, with the copper segment contributing 38.618 billion yuan, which is over 68% of the mining revenue [1] Investment Projects - The company’s board approved an investment of 1.084 billion USD for the construction of the KFM Phase II project in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, with a construction period of 2 years and expected completion in 2027 [1] - The KFM Phase II project is anticipated to add a raw ore processing capacity of 7.26 million tons per year, with an expected average annual production of 100,000 tons of copper metal upon reaching full capacity [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 48.442 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 31.90%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.945 billion yuan, up 7.80% year-on-year [1] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 16.823 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.2% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.58% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 was 1.076 billion yuan, down 3.2% year-on-year but up 1.4% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The company’s non-recurring net profit for Q3 was 1.066 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.22% year-on-year and an increase of 1.28% quarter-on-quarter [1] Production and Mining - Significant growth in lead and zinc production was noted in the first three quarters, with Q3 showing a slight decline [1] - Copper production for Q1-Q3 2025 was 138,000 tons, up 1.3% year-on-year, while Q3 production was 46,000 tons, down 9.3% year-on-year and 3.7% quarter-on-quarter [1] - Lead and zinc production for Q1-Q3 2025 was 95,000 tons and 50,000 tons respectively, with year-on-year increases of 20% and 21% [1] - Q3 lead and zinc production was 32,000 tons and 15,000 tons respectively, with year-on-year increases of 23% and 13%, but quarter-on-quarter decreases of 2.9% and 18.2% [1] - Smelting copper production for Q1-Q3 2025 was 263,000 tons, up 43.4% year-on-year, with Q3 production at 80,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 30% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 12.9% [1] Strategic Developments - The company acquired exploration rights for the Chating copper polymetallic mine for 8.6 billion yuan, marking a significant breakthrough in resource reserves [2] - The exploration area is 10.4470 square kilometers, with potential for copper, gold, silver, lead, zinc, and sulfur mining [2] Dividend and Expansion Plans - The company plans to distribute a high dividend of 2.383 billion yuan for 2024, with a payout ratio of 81% [3] - Ongoing expansion projects include the steady progress of the Yulong copper project and the expected completion of the Shuangli mining expansion by the end of the year [3] - The company has obtained mining licenses for lead and zinc in Sichuan, with a reported scale of 600,000 tons per year [3] Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 3.717 billion yuan, 4.079 billion yuan, and 4.781 billion yuan for 2025-2027, corresponding to PE ratios of 16x, 14x, and 12x based on the closing price on October 24 [3]

Core Insights - The global mining market is undergoing significant changes, with leading companies like Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Shandong Gold, and Western Mining enhancing their scale and optimizing resource structures through mergers and acquisitions [1] Group 1: Resource Integration - The shift in mining resource integration is moving from "dispersed layout" to "system optimization," with a focus on stabilizing and strengthening supply chains [2] - The demand for key minerals such as copper, lithium, cobalt, and nickel is increasing due to the rise of industries like renewable energy and artificial intelligence, leading to a profound change in global mineral demand structure [2] - The Chinese government has provided clear strategic directions for resource integration, emphasizing the need for effective exploration and project layout to avoid redundant low-level construction [2] Group 2: Value Creation - Mining companies are transitioning from relying on "cyclical profits" to "restructuring industry chain value," seeking more stable and sustainable value creation models [3] - Companies are extending vertically into high-value areas such as semiconductor materials and energy battery materials, aiming for geometric growth in resource value [3] - Horizontal collaboration is increasing, with upstream mining companies forming deep partnerships with downstream application firms to create a new supply-demand relationship characterized by shared risks and benefits [3] Group 3: Development Drivers - The mining industry is moving from "resource dependence" to "technology innovation-driven" development, with technological advancements becoming crucial for enhancing core competitiveness [4] - Innovations in exploration and mining, such as smart mining and efficient ore selection, are unlocking the potential of low-grade and difficult-to-process resources [4] - Companies are focusing on building technological moats to ensure production efficiency and cost control, which is essential for sustainable development [4] Group 4: Overseas Mergers and Acquisitions - The focus of overseas mergers and acquisitions is shifting from "asset acquisition" to "capability output," emphasizing the importance of global operational capabilities and localized value creation [5] - Successful international mining companies integrate their capital, technology, and market advantages with the resource endowments and development needs of host countries [5] - Future competition in the mining sector will hinge on resource integration capabilities, industry chain collaboration, technological innovation, and global operational capabilities [5]