证券研究报告 | 策略研究 2025 年 12 月 16 日 ——港股市场策略周报（1216） 近期港股市场在海外降息后仍未企稳，主要来自于两个内部流动性问题：公募 基金基准新规落地，可能导致卖出部分超配的港股；港股阶段性资金需求较大。 上述叙事虽然存在，且在下跌过程中持续强化，但总体来看影响较为有限。关 注即将公布的美国非农就业数据，如果数据明显低于预期可能使得市场的降息 预期重燃，从而有利于情绪改善和市场企稳回升。 张夏 S1090513080006 zhangxia1@cmschina.com.cn 涂婧清 S1090520030001 tujingqing@cmschina.com.cn 王德健 研究助理 wangdejian@cmschina.com.cn 定期报告 相关报告 1. 《港股 IPO 的抽水效应如何—— 港股系列研究报告（1）》 2. 《港股市场流动性跟踪框架—— 港股系列研究报告（2）》 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 ❑ 港股观点更新：近期港股市场在海外降息后仍未企稳，主要来自于两个内部 流动性问题：公募基金基准新规落地，可能导致卖出部分港股；港股阶段性 资金需求较大。上述叙事虽然存在，且 ...

12月16日，港股科技股集体下跌，截至发稿，恒生科技指数跌超2%，优必选跌超5%，商汤-W、小鹏汽 车-W、金山云跌4%，阿里巴巴跌超3%，小米集团、腾讯控股、比亚迪股份、中芯国际等跌幅居前。港 股通科技ETF（159125）跌2.74%。 当地时间12月10日，美联储宣布降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至3.50%-3.75%。 银河证券指出，本周日本央行加息或引发全球资本回流。但美联储12月降息可以部分抵消日本加息带来 的资金收紧效应。总体上，港股市场流动性环境维持宽松。国内方面，会议定调明年经济工作，强调要 继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策。展望未来，流动性宽松环境叠加政策利好影响 下，港股有望震荡上行。 港股通科技ETF招商（159125）跟踪国证港股通科技指数，从港股通范围内精选30家市值领先、研发投 入高、营收增长快的科技企业作为成份股，涵盖腾讯控股、阿里巴巴、小米集团、美团、中芯国际、比 亚迪股份等细分领域龙头，助力高效率把握港股科技板块投资机遇。 国证港股通科技指数从港股通范围内筛选出30家市 值领先、研发投入高、营收增长快的科技龙头企业。 根据编制方案,成份股需满足近 ...

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index experienced a significant decline, with a drop of over 4% by the end of trading [1] - Notable declines in individual stocks included BYD Electronics down 8.86% to HKD 37.46, Hua Hong Semiconductor down 7.73% to HKD 75.15, Alibaba down 5.02% to HKD 153.1, and Tencent down 2.42% to HKD 605 [1] Group 2 - The regional banking credit crisis in the U.S. has intensified, leading to a broad decline in U.S. stocks, with potential loan losses reported in the tens of millions of dollars [1] - Concerns over the quality of bank credit and asset transparency have increased, with analysts suggesting that unfavorable trade conditions are impacting valuations [1] - The recent events in regional banks have caused significant drops in U.S. stocks, raising fears of a repeat of the Silicon Valley Bank incident [1] Group 3 - Despite the challenges posed by trade disputes, the overall stability logic of the Hong Kong stock market has changed, supported by continuous inflows of southbound capital and anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - The structural recovery in earnings is becoming a major driver for the Hong Kong stock market, with expectations for double-digit profit growth in Chinese stock indices next year [1]

Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market showed signs of stabilization and positive growth in the first half of the year, with net profit margins and return on equity remaining at high levels, indicating robust operational efficiency [1] - Sectors such as technology, pharmaceuticals, and materials exhibited high levels of prosperity, supporting the overall performance of the Hong Kong stock market, while non-bank and certain consumer sectors also performed well [1] - However, sectors like energy, utilities, real estate, and most consumer industries continue to face performance pressures [1] - The outlook for the Hong Kong stock market is optimistic, with expectations of a performance turnaround in underperforming sectors such as energy and essential consumer goods in the second half of the year [1] - Given the liquidity-driven nature of the current Hong Kong stock market, sectors with improving fundamental expectations are likely to continue attracting market attention [1]

Core Viewpoint - Bank of China International believes that the Hong Kong Monetary Authority's sale of US dollars for Hong Kong dollars has a minimal impact on the Hong Kong stock market, as the funds are primarily risk-averse and focused on high-interest deposits [1] Group 1: Market Liquidity and Trading Volume - Hong Kong stock market liquidity remains abundant, with an average daily trading volume of HKD 262.9 billion in July 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 167% [1] - As of August 6, the average daily trading volume for August so far is HKD 233.5 billion, still at historically high levels [1] Group 2: Market Predictions - Bank of China International forecasts that the Hang Seng Index will reach 27,500 points by the end of December this year, which corresponds to a projected price-to-earnings ratio of 12.3 times, a premium of 5% over the average projected price-to-earnings ratio over the past 20 years [1] Group 3: Southbound Trading - Southbound trading has recorded a net inflow of RMB 833.2 billion year-to-date, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 109.8% [1] - The bank predicts that the net inflow from mainland to Hong Kong southbound trading will reach RMB 1.2 trillion in 2025, surpassing RMB 744 billion in 2024 and RMB 289.4 billion in 2023 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index closed up 0.68% at 24,994.14 points, reaching a new high since February 2022, with significant contributions from state-owned enterprises [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index briefly surpassed the 25,000 points mark during trading [1] - The AH premium decreased by 0.67% to 125.44, marking the lowest level since June 2020, indicating a narrowing price gap between H-shares and A-shares [2] Group 2: Stock Movements - Major state-owned enterprises led the gains in the Hang Seng Index, with China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation rising by 5.53%, China National Petroleum Corporation by 3.61%, and China Shenhua Energy Company by 2.94% [1] - Several companies related to the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project saw significant stock price increases, with Huaxin Cement, Dongfang Electric, and Chongqing Iron & Steel achieving daily price limits in A-shares, while their H-shares surged by 85.63%, 65.21%, and 25.53% respectively [2] Group 3: AH Share Premiums - As of July 21, the number of AH companies with H-shares priced higher than A-shares increased to 8, with CATL showing the highest premium of 36.69% [3] - Other companies with significant premiums included Huaxin Cement (17.99%), Dongfang Electric (14.84%), and Hengrui Medicine (14.1%) [3] Group 4: Market Trends and Outlook - The AH premium has remained low for the past month, with only 3 companies previously showing H-shares priced higher than A-shares [4] - Despite challenges such as external tariff pressures and a weakening domestic growth cycle, the Hong Kong market remains active, with a daily average trading volume of 2,406 million HKD, an increase of over 80% from 2024 [4] - The influx of southbound capital has also been robust, with an average daily inflow of 61.5 million HKD, nearly double the 34.7 million HKD from 2024 [4] Group 5: IPO and Market Dynamics - The number of companies listing in Hong Kong is increasing, with 10 A-share companies converting to H-shares, raising 70% of their funds from this transition [5] - Short-term AH premiums are constrained by a "hidden floor" due to dividend tax arrangements, while long-term macro factors supporting Hong Kong's capital market remain unchanged [5]

Group 1 - The current Hong Kong stock market has abundant liquidity, with a focus on the upward elasticity of the non-bank sector [1] - Since June, the Hong Kong stock market has shown recovery, with the Hang Seng Index up by 4.27% and the Hang Seng Tech Index up by 3.31%, outperforming the MSCI World Index which increased by 3.77% [1] - As of June 27, the overall market capitalization of Hong Kong stocks reached HKD 42.84 trillion, an increase of 6.31% compared to the end of May [1] Group 2 - Trading activity in the Hong Kong stock market has increased, with an average daily turnover (ADT) of HKD 229.44 billion, up by 9.12% month-on-month [1] - Southbound capital's ADT increased by 27.16%, accounting for 26.18% of the total turnover [1] - The trading volume of derivatives has also risen, with futures average daily volume (ADV) at 58,000 contracts, up by 6.30%, and options ADV at 82,000 contracts, up by 11.53% [1] Group 3 - The HIBOR rate has risen again since June, with the 6-month HIBOR reaching 2.38% as of June 27, an increase of 0.22 percentage points month-on-month, and a decrease of 4.2 percentage points year-to-date [1] - With HIBOR remaining high, the investment income of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange is expected to continue to rise [1] Group 4 - The Hong Kong Stock Connect 50 ETF tracks the Hong Kong Stock Connect 50 Index, which is compiled by China Securities Index Co., Ltd., selecting 50 large-cap stocks with good liquidity under the Stock Connect mechanism [1] - The index is calculated using a free-float market capitalization weighting method and sets a 10% weight limit for individual constituent stocks, reflecting the overall market performance of large-cap stocks in Hong Kong [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange is exploring a plan to lower the investment threshold for purchasing high-priced stocks to stimulate trading activity, which could positively impact the short-term performance of the exchange's stock [1][2]. Group 1: Market Activity and Trends - As of March 9, the average daily trading volume of Hong Kong stocks has exceeded 200 billion HKD this year, with February seeing three instances of daily trading surpassing 400 billion HKD, equating to four times the average daily trading volume for 2023 [2]. - The net inflow of mainland funds into Hong Kong stocks has surged, with cumulative net inflows reaching 339.5 billion HKD since the beginning of 2025, nearly quadrupling compared to the same period last year [2]. - On March 10, net purchases by mainland funds reached a record high of 296.26 million HKD, marking the highest daily net inflow since the launch of the Stock Connect mechanism [3]. Group 2: Sector Performance - The Hang Seng Index has shown significant growth, reaching a high of 24,669.6 points, while the Hang Seng Technology Index has outperformed globally with a maximum increase of over 40% [3]. - The market breadth of the Hang Seng Index has improved, with the proportion of stocks above the 20-day moving average rising from 22.9% to 90.4% as of March 7, indicating a strong upward trend, although it has not reached the levels seen in previous market rallies [4]. Group 3: Investment Strategies and Recommendations - The Southbound capital flow has demonstrated a "dumbbell" configuration, with investments concentrated in high-growth sectors such as consumer internet and technology, while also increasing holdings in high-dividend sectors like finance and energy for risk hedging [5]. - The proportion of active equity funds holding Hong Kong stocks has increased to 6.6% as of the end of February 2025, reflecting a growing interest from domestic public funds in the Hong Kong market [6].