交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃早报 2025-7-18 每日观点 玻璃： 1、基本面： "反内卷"政策提振市场情绪；玻璃生产利润修复，行业冷修速度放缓，开工率、产 量下降至历史同期低位；深加工订单不及往年同期，终端需求偏弱；偏空 2、基差：浮法玻璃河北沙河大板现货1088元/吨，FG2509收盘价为1092元/吨，基差为-4元，期货 升水现货；中性 3、库存：全国浮法玻璃企业库存6493.90万重量箱，较前一周减少3.22%，库存在5年均值上方运 行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线上方运行，20日线向上；偏多 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：玻璃基本面不改偏弱，短期预计低位震荡运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、生产利润负反馈明显，玻璃产量持续下降至历 ...

Report Overview - Report Name: Goldtrust Futures Daily Report - Date: July 18, 2025 - Author: Goldtrust Futures Research Institute Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The glass market is experiencing a fierce short - term tug - of war between bulls and bears. If the price stabilizes at a key support level, one can consider going long; otherwise, it is advisable to wait and see [3]. - The stock index futures market is expected to have a high - level volatile upward trend [7]. - The long - term outlook for gold remains positive. Currently, after adjusting to an important support level, one can buy on dips [11]. - The iron ore market maintains a bullish technical trend, and the positive feedback in the industrial chain continues [15]. - The glass market continues to follow a bullish technical trend, although the fundamentals have not changed significantly [19]. - For methanol, due to the continuous accumulation of port inventory, a short - position strategy with a small position is recommended [23]. Summary by Category Glass - Fundamentals: Real estate demand is weak, and although there is support from photovoltaic demand, it cannot fully offset the drag from the real estate sector. Glass social inventory has increased year - on - year, resulting in significant supply pressure. However, the cold - repair of production lines such as those of Jinjing Technology has reduced the daily melting volume, providing marginal support to supply and potentially limiting price declines [3]. - Industry News: On July 16, a kiln production line in Anhui with a designed capacity of 750 tons per day entered cold - repair, and the cold - repair speed of the top 10 photovoltaic glass production lines has accelerated. The supply has further decreased, and the downstream purchasing sentiment has improved, which is beneficial for the subsequent glass prices [3]. - Technical Analysis: The short - term correction of the glass futures main contract does not change the medium - term upward trend. If it stabilizes around 1050 yuan, one can try to go long with a small position. The bearish forces in the glass market are concentrated, but the net short positions of the top 20 seats in the main contract are showing a decreasing trend, indicating intensified market divergence [3]. Stock Index Futures - Market Trend: The A - share market opened lower and closed higher, with the ChiNext performing the strongest. The market is expected to have a high - level volatile upward trend [7][8]. Gold - Market News: The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates in the meeting has reduced the expectation of an interest - rate cut within the year, leading to an adjustment in the gold price. However, the long - term upward trend remains unchanged [12]. - Technical Analysis: After adjusting to an important support level, one can buy on dips [11]. Iron Ore - Macro Environment: The macro environment has improved, risk appetite has increased, and the high pig iron output due to decent steel mill profits has maintained a positive feedback in the industrial chain [16]. - Technical Analysis: The price continued to rise today, and the bullish view persists [15]. Methanol - Inventory Data: As of July 9, 2025, the total methanol port inventory in China was 71.89 million tons, an increase of 4.52 million tons compared to the previous period. The inventory in East China increased by 6.10 million tons, while that in South China decreased by 1.58 million tons. The port inventory has continued to accumulate this week, and a short - position strategy with a small position is recommended [23].

| 玻璃纯碱早报 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | 2025/7/18 | | | 玻 璃 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/7/17 周度变化 日度变化 | 2025/7/10 | 2025/7/16 | | | | | 2025/7/10 | 2025/7/16 | | 2025/7/17 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 沙河安全 5mm大 板 | 1160.0 | 1160.0 | 1160.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | FG09合约 | 1083.0 | 1070.0 | 1092.0 | 9.0 | 22.0 | | 沙河长城 5mm大板 | 1156.0 | 1164.0 | 1164.0 | 8.0 | 0.0 | FG01合约 | 1174.0 | 1162.0 | 1168.0 | -6.0 | 6.0 | | 沙河5mm大 板低价 | 11 ...

Core Insights - The event "Industry Connection Wins Business Port" held in Xuzhou Huaihai International Port Area aims to enhance collaboration between enterprises and government, focusing on practical outcomes rather than traditional meeting formats [1] - The event gathered over 40 representatives from government, enterprises, and banks to facilitate resource sharing and cooperation, promoting a new model for optimizing the business environment [1][2] - The port area has seen significant growth in logistics services, with various companies showcasing their capabilities and forming preliminary cooperation agreements during the event [2][3] Group 1: Event Overview - The event featured six key segments, including policy interpretation, enterprise promotion, and government-enterprise interaction, emphasizing the role of enterprises [1] - No designated speaking area was set up, allowing all companies to freely discuss and explore development opportunities [1] - A service card and company directory were distributed to ensure ongoing support for enterprises, facilitating connections based on their needs [1] Group 2: Logistics and Industry Highlights - Xuzhou Huaihai International Port has successfully operated 219 international trains from January to June, exceeding annual targets [3] - The port's iron-sea combined transport has shipped 9,996 standard containers, marking a year-on-year increase of 31.22% [3] - The port area has enhanced its service functions, with trade volume in bonded warehouses reaching approximately 9.56 billion yuan, of which 9.06 billion yuan was imports [4] Group 3: Future Initiatives - The port area plans to establish a long-term mechanism for matching supply and demand, ensuring that cooperation extends beyond the event [5] - The integration of a dynamic information database will facilitate ongoing updates and precise matching of enterprise needs with available resources [4][5] - The development of a modern sewage treatment plant with an investment of approximately 120 million yuan is underway, expected to process 10,000 tons of wastewater daily, contributing to sustainable regional development [4]

Core Insights - The investment enthusiasm for borosilicate glass production capacity in China is moderate, with companies like Linuo Pharmaceutical starting production with significant investments but requiring time for ramp-up [1][2] - The overall production capacity for borosilicate glass is sufficient, with major players like Shandong Pharmaceutical Glass and Linuo Pharmaceutical planning substantial increases in capacity by 2025 [2][4] - The production of borosilicate glass is generally on the rise, although some companies are experiencing declines in specific product lines [5] - Sales of borosilicate glass are declining across the industry, with most leading companies reporting lower sales figures compared to the previous year [6] - The overall production and sales rates for borosilicate glass companies are below 100%, indicating inefficiencies in the market [7][9] Production Capacity - Linuo Pharmaceutical's production capacity for borosilicate medicinal molded bottles is approximately 5,081 tons, with plans to increase capacity by an additional 46,574 tons by 2025 [4] - Shandong Pharmaceutical Glass will achieve a production capacity of 170,000 tons for molded bottles upon completion of its project [2][4] - Other companies like Shandong Dingxin and Kaisen Junheng are also expanding their production capabilities significantly [4] Production and Sales Trends - Linuo Pharmaceutical's production is expected to increase by 25.78% in 2024 compared to 2023, while other companies like Zhengchuan Co. are seeing a decrease in production [5] - Sales figures for borosilicate glass are generally declining, with Linuo Pharmaceutical showing a 20.57% increase in sales, while others like Zhengchuan Co. report a 15.87% decrease [6] - The production and sales rates for major companies are mostly below 100%, indicating potential overcapacity or inefficiencies [7][9]

Core Viewpoint - Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co., Ltd. has shown significant stock performance, reaching a new high, indicating strong market interest and potential growth in the automotive glass sector [1]. Company Overview - Established in 1987 in Fuzhou, China, Fuyao Glass is a large multinational group focused on automotive safety glass, listed on both the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [2]. - The company operates under an "A+H" model, allowing it to access both domestic and international capital markets [2]. - Fuyao has developed modern production bases and business institutions in 18 provinces in China and 12 countries, including the USA, Russia, Germany, Japan, and South Korea, employing approximately 30,000 people globally [2]. - The company has been recognized as a "global excellent supplier" by major automotive manufacturers, providing OEM services and complete automotive glass solutions [2]. Innovation and Recognition - Fuyao is a proactive explorer and practitioner of "Industry 4.0," leading in information technology and production automation within its industry [2]. - The company has received numerous awards, including the "China Quality Award" and "National Innovation Demonstration Enterprise," highlighting its commitment to quality and innovation [2]. - Fuyao has consistently ranked among the "Fortune" China 500 and the top 500 private enterprises in China, receiving various social honors [2]. Leadership and Philanthropy - Chairman Cao Dewang has made significant personal donations totaling nearly 20 billion yuan and established a foundation to create Fuyao University, earning him recognition as a leading philanthropist [2]. - Cao has received multiple accolades, including the "Global Entrepreneur Award" and the "Golden Phoenix Award," for his contributions to the automotive glass industry [2].

Core Insights - The recent emphasis on "anti-involution" by the Central Financial Committee indicates a significant policy shift aimed at addressing issues in various sectors, including photovoltaic, steel, and construction materials [2][3] - The current "anti-involution" policy is expected to differ from the 2016 "supply-side reform" in terms of industry characteristics, causes, and policy intensity [4][15] Group 1: Policy Background and Timing - The current macroeconomic environment mirrors that of 2016, with global economic slowdown, weak domestic demand, and declining capacity utilization leading to negative PPI growth [4][15] - The sequence of policy implementation for "anti-involution" is expected to follow a similar pattern to that of the "supply-side reform," starting with policy definition, followed by top-level design, and then specific industry policies [21][46] Group 2: Industry Characteristics and Opportunities - The "anti-involution" initiative focuses on advanced manufacturing sectors, which have shorter capacity formation times and higher private enterprise participation compared to traditional industries targeted in the 2016 reforms [4][25] - Industries such as wind power, steel, certain chemicals, photovoltaic, and coal are identified as having "involution" pressures, with potential for policy support and market recognition [3][6] Group 3: Market Impact and Investment Opportunities - The "anti-involution" policy is anticipated to boost PPI and corporate profitability, contingent on appropriate timing, policy strength, and demand-side coordination [3][4] - Historical data suggests that the initiation of supply-side reforms led to significant improvements in industrial profits, commodity prices, and capacity utilization rates, indicating potential for similar outcomes under the current policy [47][50] Group 4: Sector-Specific Insights - In the construction materials sector, self-balancing supply capabilities are strong, particularly in cement and fiberglass, with a focus on eliminating disorderly competition [7] - The steel industry is expected to enter a recovery phase by Q3 2024, aided by voluntary production cuts and favorable pricing dynamics [7] - The chemical industry is projected to benefit from supply-side adjustments driven by self-discipline and environmental regulations, with a recovery anticipated in the latter half of 2025 [8] - The automotive sector is shifting from price competition to value competition, with the "anti-involution" policy expected to stabilize pricing dynamics [8] - The agricultural sector, particularly in pig farming, is seeing policy measures aimed at reducing production capacity and optimizing structure, which may lead to price stabilization [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Glass: Although the short - term glass market has intense long - short competition, considering the marginal support of supply reduction and the unchanged medium - term upward trend of the futures main contract, if the price stabilizes at the key support level, one can try to go long; otherwise, it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - Stock Index Futures: It is expected that the market will continue to fluctuate upward at a high level during the delivery week [7]. - Gold: Despite the adjustment due to the Fed's decision not to cut interest rates and the reduced expectation of rate cuts this year, the general upward trend remains, and it can be bought at a low price when it adjusts to an important support level [11][12]. - Iron Ore: With the improvement of the macro - environment, high iron - water production, and the positive feedback repair of the industrial chain, it should be viewed from a bullish perspective [15][16]. - Methanol: As of July 9, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports has increased, so it should be shorted with a light position [22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Hot Focus - Glass - Fundamental: Real estate demand is weak, and although there is support from photovoltaic demand, it cannot fully offset the drag from the real estate sector. The social inventory of glass has increased year - on - year, resulting in significant supply pressure. However, the cold repair of production lines such as Jinjing Technology has reduced the daily melting volume, providing marginal support for supply and potentially limiting price declines [3]. - Industrial News: On July 16, a kiln production line in Anhui with a designed capacity of 750 tons per day entered cold repair, and the cold - repair speed of the top 10 photovoltaic glass production lines has accelerated. The downstream purchasing sentiment has improved, which is beneficial for glass enterprises to reduce inventory and subsequent glass prices [3]. - Technical Analysis: The short - term correction of the glass futures main contract does not change the medium - term upward trend. If it stabilizes around 1050 yuan, one can try to go long with a light position. The short - selling power of glass is concentrated, but the net short positions of the top 20 seats of the main contract show a decreasing trend, and market divergence has intensified [3]. Technical Analysis - Stock Index Futures This week is the delivery week of stock index futures. It is expected that the market will continue to fluctuate upward at a high level [7]. Technical Analysis - Gold The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates has reduced the expectation of rate cuts this year, causing a correction in gold prices. However, the general upward trend remains, and it can be bought at a low price when it adjusts to an important support level [11][12]. Technical Analysis - Iron Ore The improvement of the macro - environment has increased risk appetite. With good steel - mill profits, iron - water production remains at a high level, and the industrial chain is in a state of positive feedback repair. Technically, it continued to rise today, so it should be viewed from a bullish perspective [15][16]. Technical Analysis - Glass The supply side has not experienced a major loss - induced cold - repair situation, the factory inventory is still high, and the restocking motivation of downstream deep - processing orders is weak. There is no obvious change in the fundamentals, and recent trends are more driven by news and sentiment. Technically, it fluctuated within a narrow range today, and the lower support is effective, so it should be viewed from a bullish perspective [19][20]. Technical Analysis - Methanol As of July 9, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 71.89 tons, an increase of 4.52 tons compared with the previous period. The inventory in East China increased by 6.10 tons, while that in South China decreased by 1.58 tons. The methanol port inventory continued to accumulate this week, and it should be shorted with a light position [22].

Core Viewpoint - China Southern Glass Group Co., Ltd. has announced its 2024 annual profit distribution plan, which includes cash dividends for both A and B shares, with specific amounts and conditions outlined for shareholders [1][2][3]. Summary by Sections Profit Distribution Plan - The profit distribution plan was approved at the 2024 annual shareholders' meeting held on June 24, 2025, with a cash dividend of 0.7 yuan per 10 shares, totaling approximately 214.95 million yuan (including tax) [2][3]. - The company will not issue bonus shares or convert capital reserves into shares for the 2024 fiscal year [2]. Share Repurchase and Dividend Rights - The company holds 46,791,793 shares in its repurchase account, which will not participate in the profit distribution. This includes 33,034,797 A shares and 13,756,996 B shares [1][3][5]. - The actual cash dividend amount will be adjusted based on the total number of shares eligible for profit distribution on the record date [3][5]. Dividend Calculation - For A shares, the cash dividend per 10 shares is calculated to be 0.688209 yuan, leading to a per-share cash dividend of 0.0688209 yuan after the distribution [1][5]. - For B shares, the cash dividend per 10 shares is calculated to be 0.691319 yuan, resulting in a per-share cash dividend of 0.0691319 yuan [2][6]. Record and Ex-Dividend Dates - The record date for A shares is set for July 22, 2025, with the ex-dividend date on July 23, 2025. For B shares, the last trading day is also July 22, 2025, with the ex-dividend date on July 23, 2025, and the record date on July 25, 2025 [4][5]. Distribution Method - Cash dividends for A shareholders will be directly credited to their accounts on July 23, 2025, while B shareholders will receive their dividends on July 25, 2025 [5][6]. Taxation and Adjustments - A shares will have a differentiated tax rate for dividends, with specific amounts to be paid based on the holding period. B shares will also have a differentiated tax rate, with specific amounts outlined for different types of shareholders [3][4][6].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - No explicit core viewpoints provided in the given content Group 3: Summary of Glass Market - **Price Changes**: From July 8 to July 15, 2025, prices of various 5mm glass products showed different trends. For example, the price of Wuhan Changli 5mm large - plate increased by 40.0, while the price of South China low - price 5mm large - plate remained unchanged [1]. - **Contract Price Changes**: FG09 and FG01 contracts had price changes. FG09 decreased by 31.0 from July 14 to July 15, and FG01 decreased by 28.0 during the same period [1]. - **Profit and Cost**: North China coal - fired profit increased from 258.5 to 285.5, and North China coal - fired cost decreased by 5.2 from July 14 to July 15 [1]. - **Spot and Sales**: In the glass spot market, the price of Shahe traders was around 1156, with average mid - stream trader shipments. In Hubei, the factory low - price was 1020 - 1040, and sales were good after price increases. Glass sales rates were 101 in Shahe, 125 in Hubei, 100 in East China, and 97 in South China [1]. Group 4: Summary of Soda Ash Market - **Price Changes**: From July 8 to July 15, 2025, prices of different types of soda ash also changed. For instance, the price of Shahe heavy soda decreased by 30.0 from July 14 to July 15 [1]. - **Contract Price Changes**: SA05, SA01, and SA09 contracts all had price fluctuations. SA09 decreased by 27.0 from July 14 to July 15 [1]. - **Profit and Cost**: North China ammonia - soda profit decreased by 31.3 from July 14 to July 15, and North China ammonia - soda cost increased by 1.3 during the same period [1]. - **Spot and Industry Situation**: The spot price of heavy soda in Hebei delivery warehouses was around 1180, and the price delivered to Shahe was around 1200, with average downstream purchasing willingness. Factory inventories of soda ash were accumulating [1].