(1)出境游：Q3携程的出境酒店和机票预订量攀升至2019年同期水平的140%，同比增长近20%，继续好 于市场表现;黄金周期间同比增长约30%。日本、韩国及东南亚为热门目的地，欧洲成为关键增长区 域，冰岛、挪威等目的地预订量大幅增长。机票价格方面，受航班运力恢复影响，跨境机票价格较去年 有所回落，但仍高于疫情前水平;酒店价格基本保持稳定，Q3出境游业务收入继续保持较快的同比增 长。 (2)国际业务：Q3Trip.com总预定量同比增长约60%，其中亚太地区仍是运营重点，同比增长逾50%，中 东、欧洲等新市场也展现出亮眼增长。公司近几个季度实现快速的市场份额增长，并将继续在全球范围 内投资，特别是在亚太地区。根据sensor tower数据，trip.com APP10-11月在全球市场(不含中国大陆地 区)双端MAU同比增长69%，其中亚洲市场(不含中国大陆地区)同比增长64%，增长亮眼。该行看好公司 基于高标准服务及便捷的预订流程，继续实现国际业务的快速增长。 国内酒店价格同比增速出现企稳趋势，入境游继续高增 东吴证券发布研报称，继续看好携程集团-S(09961)海外业务成长，维持"买入"评级。公司通过深 ...

智通财经APP获悉，东吴证券发布研报称，继续看好携程集团-S(09961)海外业务成长，维持"买入"评 级。公司通过深化与土耳其等地的合作，持续提升全球市场份额，展现出强劲的全球化增长潜力，此外 Q3处置投资对业绩的积极影响，该行将2025年公司经调整净利润预测从183亿元上调至323亿元。 东吴证券主要观点如下： (2)国际业务：Q3 Trip.com总预定量同比增长约60%，其中亚太地区仍是运营重点，同比增长逾50%，中 东、欧洲等新市场也展现出亮眼增长。公司近几个季度实现快速的市场份额增长，并将继续在全球范围 内投资，特别是在亚太地区。根据sensor tower数据，trip.com APP 10-11月在全球市场(不含中国大陆地 区)双端MAU同比增长69%，其中亚洲市场(不含中国大陆地区)同比增长64%，增长亮眼。该行看好公司 基于高标准服务及便捷的预订流程，继续实现国际业务的快速增长。 国内酒店价格同比增速出现企稳趋势，入境游继续高增 Q3公司整体住宿预订营业收入同比增长18%、环比增长29%，主要得益于强劲的旅游需求，尤其是夏季 及国庆假期期间表现突出。国内消费者旅游需求依然旺盛，游客追求新奇 ...

Core Insights - The summer travel market is poised for significant growth, with 95% of travelers expressing excitement for their summer trips, and two-thirds either planning or having already booked their travel [2] - Generation Z is expected to be the dominant demographic in the summer travel market, with a notable interest in "travel+" concepts such as educational and sports-related travel experiences [2][5] Group 1: Generation Z Travel Trends - Generation Z shows a higher travel intent this summer, with 72% of those born after 1995 and 68% of those born after 2000 planning or having booked trips, surpassing the overall population's 64% [3] - Younger travelers are increasingly interested in night tourism, with 41% of those born after 1995 willing to engage in night tourism activities, indicating a willingness to spend on such experiences [3] Group 2: "Travel+" Concepts - The "travel+" trend is emerging as a significant aspect of the travel market, with "travel+education" and "travel+sports" highlighted as key themes for summer travel [5] - In "travel+education," 42% of summer travelers plan to take children on trips, viewing travel as a "second classroom," with a higher willingness to spend on accommodations [5] - The upcoming Olympics is driving interest in "travel+sports," with 39% of travelers including outdoor sports in their plans and 80% expressing interest in the Olympics during their travels [5]

Summary of Ctrip Group's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Ctrip Group (携程集团) - **Date**: November 21, 2025 Key Points Industry and Market Dynamics - Ctrip's domestic and outbound tourism is entering a low season, while overseas tourism is entering a peak season, with Trip.com’s revenue share expected to rise from 13% in Q3 to 17-18% in Q4, indicating a seasonal revenue structure change [2][5] - The company has not been significantly impacted by new competitors due to rational competition post-pandemic, with brands focusing on core positioning and customer loyalty rather than price wars [2][6] - The average daily rate (ADR) for hotels has shown signs of recovery, with a 15% increase in domestic hotel bookings in Q3 and a return to 2019 levels for outbound travel bookings [3][4] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, domestic market performance was strong, particularly in leisure travel, with a 10% growth rate maintained in the first two months of Q4 [3] - Trip.com is expected to maintain over 50% growth in Q4, despite a high base from the previous year, with hotel business growth exceeding 40% of total revenue [3][4] AI Integration and Technology - Ctrip is implementing an "AI everywhere" strategy, integrating AI into its app for customer service, sales optimization, and user experience enhancement [2][7] - The company is developing an AI itinerary planning assistant that generates travel recommendations based on user inputs, aiming to improve operational efficiency and customer engagement [8][10] Revenue Structure and Commission Rates - Ctrip has no immediate plans to adjust commission rates for domestic or outbound businesses, focusing instead on market share growth [4][11] - Future commission rate increases may occur for Trip.com, currently at 8-9%, as the company prioritizes market share over immediate profitability [11] Market Recovery and Competition - The APAC market is recovering rapidly, with capacity restored to 90%, and Ctrip expects to capture more market share as some overseas OTAs have not returned to the Chinese market [13][15] - The company is focusing on high-value markets like Hong Kong and Singapore, where it has achieved profitability and is shifting marketing strategies from brand advertising to performance-based advertising [17][18] Challenges and Strategic Responses - Recent events in Japan have led to increased order cancellations, but Ctrip is adapting by promoting alternative destinations and monitoring travel trends [12] - The company is aware of the unique competitive landscape in Japan and Korea, where local OTAs dominate, and is adjusting its strategies accordingly [22][23] Future Outlook - Ctrip plans to maintain its marketing budget at current levels, with no immediate expansion expected, while anticipating a stable loss rate in 2026 [26][27] - The company is optimistic about its growth trajectory, particularly in the APAC region, and aims to leverage AI and data analytics to enhance its service offerings and operational efficiency [10][20] Additional Insights - Ctrip's focus on high-end international travel customers through Trip.com aligns with its strategy to enhance user experience and reduce reliance on third-party platforms [24][25] - The company is committed to optimizing its revenue structure by increasing the share of higher-margin segments like hotel bookings [11][19]

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·旅游及消闲设施(HS) 携程集团-S（09961.HK） 海外市场持续拓展，看好国际业务份额提升 及利润空间 买入（维持） | Table_EPS] [盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 44,510 | 53,294 | 61,878 | 69,635 | 76,171 | | 同比（%） | 122.12 | 19.73 | 16.11 | 12.54 | 9.39 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 9,918 | 17,067 | 32,267 | 19,109 | 21,221 | | 同比（%） | 606.91 | 72.08 | 89.06 | (40.78) | 11.05 | | Non-GAAP 净利润（百万元） | 13,071 | 18,041 | 32,263 | 20,009 | 22,023 | | 同比（%） | 910.12 | 38.02 | 78.83 | (37.98) | ...

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a significant drop, with a market value evaporation of nearly 2.5 trillion yuan, and the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 2.45%, marking the largest decline since April 7 of this year [1] - In contrast, U.S. stocks showed a strong rebound, with the Dow Jones rising by 1.83% and the Nasdaq recovering from an early drop to close up by 0.88% [2][3] - The semiconductor sector was particularly strong, with notable gains from companies like Intel and Texas Instruments, which rose by 2.62% and 3.96% respectively [2] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve officials acknowledged a slowdown in economic growth and a cooling labor market while emphasizing that "inflation progress has stalled," leading to confusion regarding the direction of interest rates [3] - The probability of a rate cut in December fluctuated significantly, indicating uncertainty among traders [7] Chinese Concept Stocks - After a nine-day decline, the Chinese concept stock index rose by 0.84%, with companies like NIO and Bilibili seeing gains of 3.33% and 2.24% respectively [4] - The market sentiment among investors regarding Chinese stocks has been volatile, with some expressing relief at the recent recovery [4] Investment Strategies - A significant outflow of 178 billion yuan from domestic investors raised concerns about market support, while some private equity managers indicated that quality growth stocks are now in a favorable position for investment [4] - The trend of stock buybacks is gaining momentum, with at least 17 companies announcing buyback plans, which may signal confidence from industry capital [7] Sector Performance - The travel and tourism sector saw unexpected gains, attributed to the recovery of international flights, with related stocks rising by 3% [9] - The technology sector is undergoing a repositioning, with funds actively seeking to capitalize on undervalued tech stocks [7] Market Sentiment - The market is experiencing a split sentiment, with some investors feeling panic while others are looking for buying opportunities, as evidenced by increased online activity in stock forums [11] - The upcoming trading session is anticipated to be a critical battleground for bulls and bears, with expectations for a potential rebound [11]

近日，在日本旅游退订潮中，有多名消费者向凤凰网财经《公司研究院》反映，在旅行平台去哪儿网上遇到 "退费难"问题。 来源｜凤凰网财经《公司研究院》 旅行社员工陈娜（化名）表示，平台提前 1 5 天收取酒店费用，入住前 1 5 天内取消订单将全款扣费。对此她表示不理解， "酒店并不会这么早锁 定费用，即便前1 0 天取消，也能顺利退费。为什么平台上这么难退？ " 对于上述问题，去哪儿网公关人员对凤凰网财经《公司研究院》回应称：退费相关事宜，包括房费到账时间，都是海外酒店、民宿自己的要求，平台 没有办法对他们作出限制，只能努力沟通解决，各个平台都是如此。 其表示， 海外民宿需要一单一议， 每一家民宿情况不同，房费是直接给到民宿老板。 " 尤其是日本的民宿，因为当地服务员工比较少，劳动力稀缺 等原因，他们会把相关流程设置得很长，规定提前多少天预订后就没办法取消，这是因为他们需要留出准备布草、安排打扫等工作的时间 。 " 当她提出退费诉求时，平台以 "日本酒店不同意"为由拒绝。她只能直接联系酒店，结果与平台说法截然相反，酒店方很爽快地同意免费退订，"平台 这才没办法"。 凤凰网财经《公司研究院》发现，社交平台上，不少消 ...

但有法律人士指出，遇到特殊情况，消费者有权要求解除或变更合同，商家也得考虑消费者的难处，给 出合理解决方案。 文|《BUG》栏目 罗宁 亲人去世，找平台退机票却被"层层加码"？ 近日，用户林女士（化名）向《BUG》栏目反映：自己在去哪儿网平台购买了几张机票，后因家中老 人突然去世，故需要办理退票。在航司审核通过后明确同意可办理全额退款的情况下，却遭遇去哪儿 网"刁难"。 "材料提交后，一开始说初核通过，但几天后又说材料不行。" "先是质疑死亡证明盖章，后要求索要火化证明等等。" ………… 林女士认为去哪儿在故意"刁难"，"这些材料，在最初的清单中都只字未提，怎么后来又要这要那？"对 此，她很愤怒"请平台立即停止无理发难。" 《BUG》栏目就此向去哪儿网平台进行求证，去哪儿网官方表示，机票代理商在与消费者沟通时因其 材料不清晰而卡住，之后消费者点击退款时没有选择"病退/亡退"的选项而选择直接退票，因此出现上 述情况。 女子亲人去世后退票，称遇平台"刁难" 对于亲人去世，林女士向《BUG》栏目提供了死亡证明。而对于自己在去哪儿网的遭遇，她认为平台 是在刁难消费者。 "材料提交后，一开始说初核通过，但几天后又说材料 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights consumer grievances regarding the ticket refund process on the Qunar platform, particularly in cases of bereavement, indicating potential systemic issues in customer service and compliance with consumer rights [3][5][8]. Group 1: Consumer Complaints - A user, referred to as Ms. Lin, faced difficulties in obtaining a full refund for her flight tickets after the death of a family member, despite the airline's approval for a full refund [3][7]. - Ms. Lin reported that after initially being told her refund request was approved, she was later informed that her submitted documents were insufficient, leading to frustration and confusion [4][7]. - The airline confirmed that the documents provided by Ms. Lin were adequate, raising concerns about Qunar's handling of the refund process [7]. Group 2: Legal Perspectives - Legal experts noted that while there is no specific law governing ticket refunds due to a family member's death, consumer rights laws allow for contract modifications under special circumstances [8][10]. - The concept of "force majeure" was discussed, indicating that while a family member's death may not fit the strict legal definition, it is recognized in practice as a valid reason for refund requests [9][10]. Group 3: Systemic Issues with Qunar - Multiple consumers reported that Qunar unilaterally canceled their tickets without prior notification, despite the flights still operating, leading to significant financial losses as ticket prices surged [12][13]. - Complaints against Qunar have exceeded 190,000, primarily related to refund issues and poor customer service, indicating a broader pattern of consumer dissatisfaction [15]. - The article suggests that Qunar's practices may reflect a prioritization of profit over consumer rights, particularly in the context of refund policies [15].

Core Viewpoint - Ctrip Group-S (09961) maintains a "Buy" rating with Q3 2025 performance slightly exceeding expectations, net revenue increased by 16% year-on-year to 18.4 billion RMB, and operating profit margin stable at 30% [1] Financial Performance - Q3 performance slightly exceeded expectations with net revenue of 18.4 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 16%, surpassing the bank/market expectations by 2%/1% [1] - Accommodation bookings increased by 14% year-on-year, while transportation ticketing revenue rose by 9%, accounting for 44% and 34% of total revenue respectively, contributing 51% and 27% to revenue growth [1] - Gross profit increased by 15% year-on-year with a gross margin of 82%, remaining stable both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter [1] - Operating profit reached 5.6 billion RMB, an 11% year-on-year increase, exceeding bank/market expectations by 4%/5%, with an operating profit margin rising to 30% [1] - Adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders was 19.2 billion RMB, significantly above market expectations of 5.6 billion RMB, primarily reflecting gains from the disposal of overseas investment in MakeMyTrip [1] Operational Data - Domestic hotel ADR and ticket prices saw a slight decline in Q3, with domestic tourism revenue per capita increasing by 5% and total visits up by 13% year-on-year [2] - Outbound hotel and ticket bookings increased by 20% year-on-year, and 40% compared to Q3 2019, indicating a recovery faster than the industry average [2] - International OTA hotel and ticket bookings maintained over 60% year-on-year growth, with the Asia-Pacific market being the largest [2] - Inbound tourism bookings more than doubled year-on-year [2] - TripGenie has expanded to over 200 countries, with user growth exceeding 200% year-on-year [2] Financial Forecast and Valuation - During the National Day holiday, outbound hotel and ticket bookings increased by 30%, with strong growth in Europe and stable hotel ADR [3] - Q4 total revenue is expected to grow by 16% year-on-year, with accommodation and transportation bookings projected to increase by 15% and 12% respectively [3] - For 2026, total revenue is forecasted to grow by 14%, with adjusted net profit expected to reach 20.8 billion RMB and a profit margin of 29.6% [3] - The bank is optimistic about the company's long-term profit margin exceeding 30%, driven by supply advantages and improved profitability in overseas operations [3] - The valuation benchmark has been adjusted to 2026, with a target price raised to 693 HKD (9961.HK) / 89 USD (TCOM.US) based on a 20x 2026 P/E ratio [3] - The company continues to invest in AI and overseas markets while maintaining good ROI and financial discipline [3]