Core Viewpoint - The cobalt market is entering a supply-driven price uptrend due to the ongoing export ban from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and limited incremental supply from Indonesia's MHP [1][4]. Supply - Cobalt reserves are primarily concentrated in the DRC, with major producers including Luoyang Molybdenum and Glencore. The DRC's export ban, first announced in February 2025 and extended in June, aims to manage inventory and support previously low cobalt prices [2]. - Indonesia's MHP production capacity is expected to ramp up significantly, with an estimated cobalt output of 28,000 tons in 2024, accounting for 9.7% of global production. However, this increase may not sufficiently offset the supply reduction from the DRC [2]. Demand - Global cobalt consumption is projected to reach 222,000 tons in 2024, with electric vehicles (43%) and consumer electronics (30%) being the primary demand drivers. Domestic cobalt consumption is estimated at 123,000 tons, with consumer electronics also representing about 43% [3]. - The demand for cobalt in electric vehicle batteries is expected to remain strong, despite some market share pressure from lithium iron phosphate batteries. The shift in NCM materials towards higher nickel content is anticipated to boost cobalt demand [3]. - In the consumer electronics sector, the demand for lithium cobalt oxide, a key component in lithium-ion batteries, is expected to rise due to advancements in AI technology and increased consumer demand for higher battery capacities [3]. Price Outlook - Following the DRC's export ban, China's imports of cobalt intermediate products saw a significant decline of 61.6% in June, indicating a real supply shortage. This trend is expected to continue, with imports remaining low and MHP production not compensating for the reduction [4]. - As of July 25, domestic electrolytic cobalt inventory was reported at 13,111 tons, a 300% year-on-year increase. However, the reduction in imports is likely to accelerate inventory depletion [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" for the cobalt industry [5]. Core Viewpoints - The cobalt market is experiencing a supply-driven price increase, with significant price recovery following the export ban from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) [1][4]. - The DRC's export ban, effective from February 22, 2025, aims to reduce historical inventory and stabilize cobalt prices, which had previously dropped due to oversupply [2][45]. - The demand for cobalt is expected to grow, driven by the electric vehicle (EV) sector and advancements in consumer electronics, with cobalt consumption projected to reach approximately 222,000 tons globally in 2024 [3][19]. Summary by Sections 1. Cobalt: A Strategic Battery Metal - Cobalt is recognized for its high melting point, magnetic properties, and unique catalytic performance, making it essential in battery applications [1][15]. - The price of cobalt has undergone three cycles of increase and decrease since 2017, with the current cycle being primarily supply-driven [13][14]. 2. Cobalt Raw Material Supply - Global cobalt reserves are concentrated in the DRC, which is the largest producer, contributing approximately 75.9% of the global cobalt output in 2024 [21][22]. - The DRC's export ban is expected to impact around 128,000 tons of global cobalt supply over seven months, tightening the market and potentially increasing prices [45][47]. 3. Demand for Cobalt - In 2024, the global cobalt consumption is projected to be about 222,000 tons, with electric vehicles accounting for 43% and consumer electronics for 30% of the demand [3][19]. - The demand for cobalt in high-temperature alloys is also expected to grow, particularly in aerospace and military applications [3][19]. 4. Price Outlook - Following the DRC's export ban, imports of cobalt intermediate products into China have significantly decreased, indicating a tightening supply situation [4][9]. - The report anticipates further price increases for cobalt as imports remain low and demand recovers in the latter half of 2025 [4][9]. 5. Key Companies to Watch - Major players in the cobalt industry include Luoyang Molybdenum, which is the largest cobalt supplier globally, and other companies like Huayou Cobalt and Greeenmei, which are also significant contributors to cobalt production [6][20][41].

Group 1 - The stock price of Huayou Cobalt on August 5 was 42.46 yuan, down by 0.31 yuan from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 1.575 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 2.19% [1] - Huayou Cobalt is primarily engaged in the deep processing, research and development, production, and sales of cobalt new material products, including cobalt tetroxide, cobalt hydroxide, and cobalt sulfate [1] - The company expects its net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025 to be between 2.6 billion yuan and 2.8 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 55.62% to 67.59% [1] Group 2 - On August 5, the net outflow of main funds was 68.2981 million yuan, with a total net outflow of 1.412 billion yuan over the past five days [1]

证券时报·数据宝统计，截至发稿，腾远钴业最新股价为56.00元，上涨0.09%，本期筹码集中以来股价 累计上涨8.21%。具体到各交易日，7次上涨，5次下跌。 公司发布的一季报数据显示，一季度公司共实现营业收入14.61亿元，同比下降3.59%，实现净利润1.23 亿元，同比下降14.27%，基本每股收益为0.4200元，加权平均净资产收益率1.39%。（数据宝） （文章来源：证券时报网） 腾远钴业8月5日披露，截至7月31日公司股东户数为26037户，较上期（7月20日）减少4312户，环比降 幅为14.21%。 ...

Summary of Cobalt Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The cobalt industry is significantly impacted by the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), which holds 55% of global cobalt reserves and accounts for 76% of global production [3][12] - The DRC's export ban on cobalt has led to substantial price increases, with MB cobalt prices rising by 58%, intermediate cobalt products by 91%, and domestic metal cobalt by 47% since the ban was implemented [2][12] Key Points and Arguments - The DRC's export ban, initiated on February 24, 2025, aims to address oversupply issues in the global cobalt market [2] - The ban's impact is evident, with a significant drop in imports to China from the DRC, with cobalt wet-process intermediate imports decreasing by 42% year-on-year and 61% month-on-month in June [10] - Indonesia's cobalt production, which constitutes only 10% of global supply, is insufficient to fill the gap left by the DRC's export restrictions, despite a 40% increase in nickel wet-process intermediate production [6] - Domestic demand for cobalt in China has seen a 3% decline in ternary precursor production, with the battery sector representing the largest share of demand at 47% [7] Future Policy Directions - The DRC government is likely to extend or adjust the export ban to stabilize market conditions, with a decision expected by September 21, 2025 [9][12] - The DRC's strategy includes controlling supply to maintain higher price levels and enhance its international influence [12] Market Predictions - The global cobalt market is projected to shift from oversupply to a shortage by 2025 if the DRC maintains its export restrictions [13] - Current market predictions for cobalt quotas are around 70%, indicating a potential tightening of supply [15] Price Trends - Cobalt prices are expected to rise due to the DRC's clear intent to increase prices, with market indicators already reflecting upward trends [17] - Domestic cobalt prices have shown stability, but the tightening supply is anticipated to lead to price increases in the near future [16] Investment Recommendations - Companies in Indonesia with wet-process nickel-cobalt refining capabilities, such as Huayou Cobalt and Liqin Resources, are recommended as they are less affected by DRC policies [18] - Companies with cobalt mining or refining capabilities in the DRC, such as Luoyang Mining, Tengyuan Cobalt, and Hanrui Cobalt, are also recommended due to their potential for profit growth post-policy adjustments [19] Additional Insights - The DRC's export ban has led to a significant reduction in cobalt inventories in China, indicating a shift towards a tighter supply environment [10][11] - The DRC's control over cobalt supply positions it as a critical player in the global market, with its policies directly influencing prices and availability [12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [5][10]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a "反内卷" (anti-involution) trend leading to a general increase in commodity prices, with specific catalysts such as policy expectations driving price movements in copper, aluminum, lithium, and cobalt [4][6][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - Important macroeconomic information includes the U.S. June core CPI being below expectations at 2.9%, and retail sales showing a month-on-month increase of 0.6% [10]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) is set to release a growth stabilization plan for key industries including steel, non-ferrous metals, and petrochemicals [10]. 2. Industrial Metals 2.1 Copper - Copper prices are expected to rebound due to policy expectations, with LME copper prices increasing by 0.83% and SHFE copper prices slightly decreasing by 0.03% [6][25]. - Inventory levels have risen, with LME copper stocks increasing by 12.37% [22][25]. - Downstream demand is recovering, with copper rod operating rates at 74.2%, up by 7.2 percentage points [6]. 2.2 Aluminum - Aluminum prices are also expected to rise, with alumina prices increasing by 0.16% to 3165 CNY/ton [6][36]. - SHFE aluminum prices fell by 1.01% to 20500 CNY/ton, but are projected to recover due to strong policy support [6][36]. 2.3 Lead and Zinc - LME lead prices decreased by 1.38%, while SHFE lead prices fell by 1.70% [46]. - LME zinc prices increased by 1.24%, but SHFE zinc prices dropped by 0.45% [46]. 2.4 Tin and Nickel - LME tin prices fell by 0.73%, and SHFE tin prices decreased by 0.65% [60]. - LME nickel prices decreased by 0.33%, while SHFE nickel prices fell by 0.78% [60]. 3. Energy Metals 3.1 Lithium - Lithium prices are on the rise, with lithium carbonate increasing by 4.55% to 66650 CNY/ton, and lithium spodumene rising by 5.49% to 711 USD/ton [75]. - Supply issues are noted, with a slight increase in production but ongoing inventory accumulation [75]. 3.2 Cobalt - Cobalt prices are under pressure, with domestic cobalt prices down by 1.22% to 243000 CNY/ton [88]. - The Democratic Republic of Congo has extended its cobalt export ban by three months, which may lead to a price rebound in Q4 [88].

Export Ban Extension - The Congolese Strategic Mineral Market Regulatory Authority (ARECOMS) has extended the temporary export ban on cobalt for an additional three months due to high inventory levels in the market [1][2] - The ban affects all cobalt exports from the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), including industrial, semi-industrial, small-scale, and artisanal cobalt [2] Cobalt Market Dynamics - Cobalt is a critical component in lithium-ion batteries, enhancing energy density and stability [1] - The DRC holds the largest cobalt reserves globally, with 6 million tons, accounting for 55% of the total land reserves [1] - Global cobalt production is projected to reach approximately 291,300 metric tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 22.39%, with the DRC contributing 220,000 tons, representing 75.86% of the total [1] Price Fluctuations - Following the initial export ban in February, cobalt prices rebounded nearly 60%, with the price of cobalt hydroxide doubling [2] - Prior to the ban, cobalt prices had fallen below $10 per pound, marking a significant decline due to a shift in supply-demand dynamics [2] Impact on Chinese Companies - Chinese companies, such as Daosheng Technology and Tengyuan Cobalt, reported no immediate impact from the export ban, citing sufficient raw material reserves [3] - Major cobalt producers in China, including Luoyang Molybdenum and Huayou Cobalt, have shown strong revenue growth, with Luoyang Molybdenum reporting revenue of 46.006 billion yuan and a net profit increase of 90.47% year-on-year [3] Inventory and Supply Chain - The extension of the export ban is expected to create a supply gap, accelerating the consumption of existing inventories and potentially driving cobalt prices higher [3][4] - Despite the ban, domestic cobalt salt production and inventory levels remain high, with limited effects on inventory depletion observed so far [4] Long-term Outlook - Analysts maintain an optimistic view on cobalt prices, predicting that domestic cobalt prices may exceed 250,000 yuan per ton [5] - The DRC may implement export quotas in the long term to enhance its pricing power in the cobalt market [5] Emerging Demand - The demand for cobalt is expected to grow due to advancements in new technologies and the continued development of electric vehicles and consumer electronics [6] - Global cobalt consumption is projected to reach approximately 200,200 metric tons in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.15%, with China's consumption expected to rise by 5.6% [6]

Core Viewpoint - Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co., Ltd. has approved the issuance of various debt financing instruments for 2025, including corporate bonds and short-term financing bonds, to support its financial strategy and manage debt obligations [1][2]. Group 1: Debt Financing Approval - The company's board and shareholders have approved the issuance of non-financial corporate debt financing tools for 2025, which may include corporate bonds, enterprise bonds, short-term financing notes, and other instruments [1]. - The approved issuance methods include both public and private placements, allowing for flexibility in raising capital [1]. Group 2: Recent Bond Issuance - The company has successfully completed the issuance of its fifth phase of technology innovation bonds for 2025, amounting to 600 million RMB, with a maturity of 270 days and an interest rate of 2.50% [2]. - The bond issuance was organized by a consortium of major banks, including Zheshang Bank, CITIC Bank, Ping An Bank, and China Minsheng Bank, utilizing a book-building and centralized distribution approach [2]. - The funds raised from this bond issuance will be used to repay the company's interest-bearing debts [2].

Core Viewpoint - Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co., Ltd. expects a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, projecting a rise of 50% or more compared to the same period last year [1][2]. Performance Forecast - The company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 2.6 billion and 2.8 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 55.62% to 67.59% [1]. - The projected net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is expected to be between 2.45 billion and 2.65 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 39.85% to 51.26% [1]. Previous Year’s Performance - In the same period last year, the total profit was approximately 248.75 million yuan, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of about 167.07 million yuan [2]. - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was around 175.19 million yuan [2]. Reasons for Performance Increase - The increase in profit is attributed to several factors, including the recovery of cobalt prices, management reforms, and cost reduction initiatives [2]. - The company has achieved overproduction at the upstream resource project in Indonesia and has maintained stable high production at the Huayue project, leading to further cost reductions [2]. - The recovery in the downstream cathode material business and enhanced technological innovation capabilities have also contributed to the improved performance [2].

Core Viewpoint - The legal opinion letter confirms that the second extraordinary general meeting of shareholders of Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co., Ltd. was convened and conducted in compliance with relevant laws and regulations, ensuring the legality and validity of the meeting and its resolutions [2][4][8]. Group 1: Meeting Procedures - The meeting was convened following the approval of the proposal to hold the second extraordinary general meeting by the company's sixth board of directors [5]. - The meeting notice was published on the Shanghai Stock Exchange website, detailing the time, location, convenor, voting methods, and agenda items, ensuring shareholders' rights to attend and vote [5][6]. - The actual time and location of the meeting matched the details provided in the notice, confirming compliance with legal and regulatory requirements [6][8]. Group 2: Attendance and Voting - A total of 2,797 shareholders attended the meeting, representing 556,613,350 shares, which is 33.1545% of the total shares with voting rights [6][7]. - The meeting included company directors, supervisors, senior management, and the witnessing lawyers, all of whom met the qualifications to attend [7]. - Voting was conducted through both on-site and online methods, with specific timeframes established for each [6][8]. Group 3: Voting Results - The voting results showed that 555,388,791 shares were in favor of the proposals, accounting for 99.7799% of the valid votes cast [8]. - The resolutions discussed at the meeting were classified as special resolutions, and the voting process adhered to the stipulated legal and regulatory frameworks [8]. - The legal opinion concludes that the voting procedures and results were legitimate and valid according to applicable laws and the company's governing documents [8][9].