Core Viewpoint - The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has extended its cobalt export ban until October 15, with a quota system to be implemented thereafter, indicating the government's commitment to controlling global cobalt prices [1] Group 1: Regulatory Changes - The DRC's Strategic Mineral Market Regulatory Authority (ARECOMS) announced the extension of the cobalt export ban until October 15 [1] - Starting October 16, cobalt exports will be subject to a quota system, with the export quota for 2026-2027 set at only 44% of annual production [1] Group 2: Market Implications - CITIC Securities suggests that the quota system reflects the DRC government's determination to stabilize global cobalt prices by flexibly adjusting supply [1] - The export quota policy is expected to result in significantly lower global cobalt supply from 2025 to 2027, with supply shortages projected at 122,000 tons, 88,000 tons, and 97,000 tons respectively [1] - As a result, cobalt prices are anticipated to rise sharply, benefiting companies involved in cobalt smelting in Indonesia and those with mining operations in the DRC [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Congolese government has extended the cobalt export ban until October 15, 2025, and set export quotas for 2026-2027 at only 44% of annual production, indicating a strong intention to control global cobalt prices and stabilize the market [1][11]. Export Policy Changes - The Congolese government announced on September 20 that the cobalt export ban would be extended and a quota system would be implemented starting October 16, 2025 [2][3]. - The export quota system will not apply to companies with less than 100 tons of cobalt exports in 2024, those with refining plants but no mining operations in the past five years, and companies with depleted cobalt reserves [3]. Export Quota Details - The export quota for October 16 to December 31, 2025, is set at 18,125 tons, with monthly allocations of 3,625 tons, 7,250 tons, and 7,250 tons [4]. - For 2026, the total export quota is 96,600 tons, which includes a baseline quota of 87,000 tons and a strategic quota of 9,600 tons [4]. - The 2027 export quota will remain the same as 2026, but adjustments may be made based on market conditions [4][5]. Supply and Demand Outlook - The global cobalt supply is expected to be significantly lower than normal levels due to the new export quotas, with supply shortages projected at 122,000 tons, 88,000 tons, and 97,000 tons for 2025-2027 [6][7]. - Global cobalt demand is forecasted to increase by 9% and 7% in 2025 and 2026, respectively, leading to a projected demand of 294,000 tons by 2027 [7][8]. Market Implications - The consistent policy changes from the Congolese government demonstrate a commitment to controlling global cobalt prices, which is expected to lead to a stable operating environment for the cobalt industry [9]. - Companies involved in cobalt refining in Indonesia and those with mining operations in Congo are anticipated to benefit from the expected rise in cobalt prices [11].

Core Points - The company announces the redemption and delisting of "Huayou Convertible Bonds" with the last trading day on September 23, 2025, and the last conversion day on September 26, 2025 [2][3][4] Redemption Details - The redemption price is set at 100.8918 CNY per bond, which includes the face value of 100 CNY and accrued interest of 0.8918 CNY [4][10] - The redemption registration date is September 26, 2025, and the redemption payment date is September 29, 2025 [6][12] - Investors must convert or sell their bonds before the last trading day to avoid forced redemption [5][17] Conditions for Redemption - The conditional redemption clause was triggered as the company's stock price was above 130% of the conversion price (44.759 CNY) for 15 trading days from July 25 to August 29, 2025 [5][8] - The company has the right to redeem all or part of the bonds if the remaining balance is less than 30 million CNY [7][8] Tax Implications - Individual investors are subject to a 20% tax on interest income, resulting in a net redemption amount of 100.7134 CNY per bond after tax [15] - Qualified foreign institutional investors will receive the full redemption amount of 100.8918 CNY per bond without tax deductions [16]

Core Viewpoint - Tengyuan Cobalt Industry announced that its major shareholders have committed to not reducing their holdings in the company, aiming to enhance investor confidence and support the company's stable development [2] Shareholder Commitments - Major shareholders, including Luo Jie, Xie Fubiao, and Wu Yanghong, have pledged not to sell their shares for 12 months starting from September 22, 2025 [2] - Luo Jie holds 66,093,066 shares, accounting for 22.43% of the total share capital [2] - Xie Fubiao holds 30,546,602 shares, representing 10.36% of the total share capital [2] - Wu Yanghong holds 15,035,366 shares, which is 5.10% of the total share capital [2] - Collectively, these three shareholders own 111,675,034 shares, making up 37.89% of the total share capital of Tengyuan Cobalt [2] Implications of the Commitment - The commitment is intended to promote the company's sustainable and healthy development while protecting the interests of investors [2] - Any proceeds from potential share sales that violate this commitment will be returned to the company [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that cobalt prices have shown significant fluctuations due to export bans from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), with a 58% increase from February 24 to June 20, followed by a 6% increase from June 20 to September 18 [1] - The DRC's export ban has led to high inventory levels in the cobalt industry outside the DRC, and weak downstream demand during the off-peak season has contributed to the limited price increase after the ban was extended [1][2] - China's imports of cobalt raw materials from the DRC have significantly decreased since June, with imports dropping by 61%, 30%, and 64% from June to August, leading to only 9% of the average import level in August [2] Group 2 - The DRC's measures to control cobalt exports aim to boost prices and prevent low-cost outflows of strategic resources, while also enhancing the country's international influence [3] - The DRC is developing a quota system to manage supply, which is expected to systematically elevate the price center of cobalt and secure long-term strategic benefits for its resources [3] - Domestic demand for cobalt is expected to improve, potentially leading to continued inventory reduction and upward pressure on cobalt prices [2]

Core Viewpoint - Tengyuan Cobalt Industry (301219.SZ) has received a commitment letter from its controlling shareholders, ensuring they will not reduce their shareholdings in the company for a specified period [1] Group 1: Shareholder Commitment - The controlling shareholders, including Ms. Luo Jie, Mr. Xie Fubiao, and Mr. Wu Yanghong, have committed not to sell any shares of Tengyuan Cobalt for 12 months starting from September 22, 2025 [1] - This commitment includes any newly generated shares from capital reserve transfers or stock dividends during the commitment period [1] - In the event of a breach of this commitment, all proceeds from any share sales will be returned to the company [1]

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 基于对公司未来发展前景的信心以及对公司价值的认可，为促进公司持续、稳定、健康发展，切实维护 广大投资者利益，同时增强投资者信心，罗洁女士、谢福标先生、吴阳红先生做出不减持承诺。自2025 年9月22日起12个月内，三人不以任何方式减持所持有的"腾远钴业"股票，包括承诺期间该部分股份因 资本公积转增、派送股票红利等事项产生的新增股份。若违反上述承诺，减持股 份所得全部收益归公 司所有。 公司董事会表示，将督促控股股东严格遵守承诺，并按照《公司法》《证券法》以及中国证监会、深圳 证券交易所的相关规定，及时履行信息披露义务。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 本文为AI大模型基于第三方数据库自动发布，任何在本文出现的信 息（包括但不限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等）均只作为参考，不构成 个人投资建议。受限于第三方数据库质量等问题，我们无法对数据的真实性及完整性进行分辨或核验， 因此本文内容可能出现不准确、不完整、误导性的内容或信息，具体以公司公告为准。如有疑问，请联 系biz@staff.sina.com.cn。 点击查看公告原文>> 责任编辑 ...

Summary of Cobalt Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The cobalt industry is currently facing significant changes due to the Democratic Republic of Congo's (DRC) export quota system, which will be implemented on October 15, 2025, limiting exports to less than 50% of last year's production of 220,000 tons, resulting in an export quota of approximately 100,000 tons [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments - **Cobalt Price Trends**: Domestic spot cobalt prices have risen from 270,000 yuan to nearly 300,000 yuan, with expectations to reach 400,000 yuan, indicating a potential increase of 35% to 50% [2][3]. - **Supply Tightness**: The DRC's export ban will exacerbate global cobalt supply tightness, with the first shipments not expected to arrive in China until late January 2026. Industry inventory is projected to be fully consumed by the end of this year or early next year, maintaining high cobalt prices [1][3][4]. - **Production Declines**: In August, China's imports of cobalt intermediates dropped by 90% year-on-year, and domestic production of cobalt and cobalt sulfate also saw significant declines of 50% and 26% respectively [5]. - **Future Supply Expectations**: If the current steel and hardware policies continue into 2026-2027, cobalt supply will remain tight next year. The U.S. has announced a procurement of 7,500 tons of cobalt for strategic reserves, impacting metal demand significantly, although market reactions have been muted [6][7]. Investment Opportunities - **Recommended Companies**: Companies such as Huayou Cobalt and Liqin are favored due to their operations outside the DRC, benefiting from supply stability in Indonesia. DRC-related companies like Luoyang Molybdenum, Hanrui Cobalt, and Tengyuan Cobalt are expected to see performance improvements as prices rise [7][12]. - **Huayou Cobalt's Performance**: Huayou Cobalt has 180,000 tons of nickel production capacity in Indonesia, with expected shipments of 120,000 metal tons in the first half of 2025, translating to approximately 24,000 tons of cobalt production. The company is also positioned to benefit from inventory gains due to its significant cobalt salt production capacity [9][11]. Price Forecasts - **2025 and 2026 Price Expectations**: The average cobalt price for 2025 is expected to be around 200,000 yuan, while in 2026, prices are likely to exceed 300,000 yuan, with a potential increase of over 50% year-on-year [8][13]. Additional Insights - **Nickel Price Impact**: Current nickel prices are low, but potential closures of nickel plants in Indonesia could stimulate price increases, which would enhance company performance [10]. - **Overall Market Outlook**: The overall outlook for the cobalt market remains positive, particularly for Huayou Cobalt, with expectations of significant profit contributions from rising prices [13].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report highlights that the recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve may lead to fluctuations in copper prices, with a focus on demand during the peak season of September and October [4] - Cobalt prices are expected to rise due to a potential extension of the export ban from the Democratic Republic of Congo, which could accelerate the depletion of raw material inventories [4] - Lithium prices are anticipated to rebound from the bottom as demand increases during the peak season [4] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The U.S. retail sales for August exceeded expectations, with a month-on-month increase of 0.6% [8] - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, lowering the upper limit of the benchmark rate from 4.5% to 4.25% [8] 2. Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector underperformed, with a decline of 4.02% compared to a 1.30% drop in the Shanghai Composite Index [10] - The sector's PE_TTM valuation is 23.96, down by 0.80 from the previous week, while the PB_LF valuation is 2.87, down by 0.09 [19] 3. Copper - Copper prices saw a decline, with LME copper down 0.85% and SHFE copper down 1.42% [24] - Domestic copper inventories increased by 12.50%, indicating a potential oversupply [24] 4. Aluminum - Aluminum prices decreased, with LME aluminum down 0.43% and SHFE aluminum down 1.00% [35] - The aluminum industry is facing a profit margin squeeze, with profits down to 4,793 CNY/ton [35] 5. Lithium - Lithium carbonate prices increased by 1.45% to 73,500 CNY/ton, while lithium spodumene prices rose by 2.02% to 859 USD/ton [74] - The report indicates that lithium prices may have bottomed out and are expected to recover [74] 6. Cobalt - Cobalt prices increased, with MB cobalt rising by 0.93% to 16.30 USD/pound and domestic cobalt prices up by 1.84% to 277,000 CNY/ton [86] - The potential extension of the DRC's cobalt export ban could lead to a significant price rebound [86]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [12]. Core Insights - The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is a major supplier of diamond resources globally, and since February 2025, it has implemented an export ban on diamond products, significantly disrupting the supply side [1][3]. - The DRC's export ban, which began on February 22, 2025, has led to a substantial decline in China's diamond imports, with volumes dropping from 1.9 thousand tons in June to 0.52 thousand tons in August, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of -61.62%, -27.26%, and -62.05% respectively [3][4]. - It is estimated that global effective diamond supply will decrease by 34% from 282,000 tons to 185,000 tons due to the DRC's export suspension lasting seven months [3]. - Demand for diamonds is expected to grow steadily, particularly in emerging sectors such as low-altitude economy and robotics, with a projected increase of 5.06% in diamond demand to 210,900 tons in 2025 [3][6]. - The price of diamonds has risen from a historical low of 159,000 yuan/ton to 277,000 yuan/ton since the DRC's export restrictions were enacted, indicating a strong upward trend in diamond prices [3][6]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - The DRC's export restrictions are expected to tighten supply, leading to a forecasted diamond price increase in the short term [3]. - The DRC's government has a clear stance on controlling diamond supply, making it unlikely for export restrictions to be lifted in the near future [3]. Company Valuation - Key companies in the diamond sector include Huayou Cobalt, Tongyuan Cobalt, Luoyang Molybdenum, Liqin Resources, and Hanrui Cobalt, which are expected to benefit from the anticipated price increases [3][7].