Core Viewpoints - The company benefited from the simultaneous increase in gold and copper prices, achieving a revenue of 86.49 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 8.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 14.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 57.1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.0% [1] - On September 30, 2025, Zijin Gold International successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, setting multiple records for mining company IPOs, allowing the company to share in the future growth and potentially enhance its overall market value through revaluation [1] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a gold production of 24 tons, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7%, while copper production decreased by 6% to 260,000 tons due to the flooding incident at the KK copper mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo [2][3] - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a net profit of approximately 37.9 billion yuan, with gold and copper production increasing by 20% and 5% year-on-year, respectively [2] Price Trends - In Q3 2025, the sales price of gold ingots (excluding tax) was 746 yuan per gram, a year-on-year increase of 44%, while the sales price of copper concentrate was 60,900 yuan per ton, a year-on-year increase of 8% [3] IPO Success - The successful listing of Zijin Gold International on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange raised approximately 28.7 billion HKD, marking the largest IPO in the global gold mining industry to date and the second-largest IPO globally in 2025 [4] - The gold business accounted for 40.4% of the company's gross profit in the first three quarters of 2025, significantly enhancing the company's performance [4] Future Outlook - The company expects net profits attributable to shareholders to reach 50.4 billion yuan, 64.3 billion yuan, and 71.9 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 15.64, 12.26, and 10.96 times [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Neutral [9] - Arbitrage: Suspended - Options: Short put 2. Core View of the Report - Previously, due to favorable macro - factors, the strengthening of precious metal prices, and frequent interference events in overseas mines, copper prices rose. However, with the temporary decline of precious metal prices and smelters seeking to break the low processing fees at the LME conference, if the TC price rebounds, it may suppress copper prices. Copper prices are currently treated with a neutral approach, and the expected fluctuation range this week is between 81,600 yuan/ton and 87,100 yuan/ton [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Futures Quotes - On October 23, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 85,280 yuan/ton and closed at 86,070 yuan/ton, a 0.76% increase from the previous trading day's close. In the night session, it opened at 86,450 yuan/ton and closed at 86,730 yuan/ton, a 0.77% increase from the afternoon close [1]. 3.1.2 Spot Situation - According to SMM, on the previous day, the spot price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at a discount of 30 to a premium of 50 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 10 yuan, a 20 - yuan decrease from the previous day. The copper price ranged from 85,290 to 85,690 yuan/ton. High copper prices suppressed downstream procurement, and the willingness of holders to sell also declined. It is expected that although today's trading volume will increase month - on - month, if the copper price approaches 86,000 yuan/ton, the spot premium will still be under pressure [2]. 3.1.3 Important Information Summary - Geopolitical: Russian President Putin said that the US President decided to cancel or postpone the meeting, and Russia always advocates dialogue [3]. - Tariff: South Korea and the US are discussing a plan for South Korea to invest $200 billion in the US in stages over the next eight years to promote the current tariff negotiation agreement [3]. 3.2 Mine End - Shuikoushan Non - ferrous Kangjiawan Copper Mine introduced a mobile ball - control camera to solve the safety supervision problem in underground stope operations. Antofagasta's copper production in Q3 2025 was 161,800 tons, a 1% quarter - on - quarter increase, and the annual production is expected to be at the lower end of the 660,000 - 700,000 - ton guidance range [4]. 3.3 Smelting and Import - In September, China's copper scrap imports were 184,100 tons, a 14.8% year - on - year increase. From January to September, imports were 1.699 million tons, a 1.4% year - on - year increase. Due to increased customs inspections and high copper prices, it is predicted that imports in October may decline, and there is great pressure for an increase in Q4 [5]. 3.4 Consumption - In September, the national copper rod production was 1.0888 million tons, a 3.89% month - on - month increase. Electrolytic copper rod and recycled copper rod showed a differentiated trend. The electrolytic copper rod enterprise's operating rate in September was 70.3%, a 1.93 - percentage - point month - on - month increase and a 5.21 - percentage - point year - on - year decrease. The recycled copper rod enterprise's operating rate was 25.78%, a 2.55 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease and a 3.1 - percentage - point year - on - year decrease [6]. 3.5 Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts decreased by 300 tons to 136,925 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 505 tons to 36,048 tons. On October 20, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 181,600 tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons from the previous week [7][8]. 3.6 Copper Price and Basis Data - The data shows the spot (premium/discount), premium copper, flat - water copper, wet - process copper, Yangshan premium, LME (0 - 3), inventory, warehouse receipts, arbitrage, import profit, and Shanghai - London ratio (main contract) for different time points (today, yesterday, last week, one month ago) [26][27][28][29].

Core Viewpoint - Zijin Mining's copper production has decreased due to the impact of the Kamoto Copper Mine, while gold production has steadily increased [1] Group 1: Production and Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Zijin Mining achieved copper production of 263,100 tons, representing a year-on-year decrease of 2.89% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 5.81% [1] - The company has seen significant capital operation results, with its subsidiary Zijin Gold International successfully listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on September 30, raising HKD 28.7 billion through the issuance of 401 million shares at HKD 71.59 per share [1] - This IPO set records as the largest in the global gold mining industry, the largest for a Chinese mining company overseas, and the second largest globally in 2025 [1] Group 2: Investment and Revenue Forecast - The IPO attracted 26 top global institutions as cornerstone investors, who subscribed for USD 1.6 billion, accounting for 50% of the base offering [1] - Due to the increase in gold and copper prices in Q3, the company has raised its profit forecast, projecting revenues of CNY 352.683 billion, CNY 387.977 billion, and CNY 406.642 billion for 2025-2027, with net profits attributable to shareholders of CNY 53.441 billion, CNY 63.285 billion, and CNY 71.034 billion respectively [1] - The current stock price corresponds to price-to-earnings ratios of 14.9, 12.6, and 11.2 times for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Huaxin Securities indicates that Zijin Mining's copper production has decreased due to the impact of the Kamoto Copper Mine, while gold production has steadily increased [1] Group 1: Production Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved copper production of 263,100 tons, representing a year-on-year decrease of 2.89% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 5.81% [1] - The company's gold production has shown a steady increase during the same period [1] Group 2: Capital Operations - Zijin Gold International, a subsidiary of the company, successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on September 30, issuing 401 million shares at HKD 71.59 per share, raising HKD 28.7 billion [1] - This IPO set records as the largest in the global gold mining industry, the largest for a Chinese mining company overseas, and the second largest globally in 2025 [1] - The issuance was supported by 26 top global institutions, which subscribed to USD 1.6 billion, accounting for 50% of the base offering [1] Group 3: Financial Forecast - Due to the increase in gold and copper prices in Q3, the company has raised its profit forecast [1] - Projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are expected to be CNY 352.683 billion, CNY 387.977 billion, and CNY 406.642 billion, respectively [1] - Projected net profits attributable to shareholders for the same years are CNY 53.441 billion, CNY 63.285 billion, and CNY 71.034 billion, respectively [1] - The current stock price corresponds to price-to-earnings ratios of 14.9, 12.6, and 11.2 times for 2025, 2026, and 2027 [1] Group 4: Investment Rating - The investment rating is maintained at "Buy" [1]

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in copper prices are driven by supply disruptions, structural demand surges, and macroeconomic and policy influences, with prices remaining at a 15-month high as of October 22 [2][3]. Group 1: Factors Driving Copper Price Increase - Supply-side constraints are significant, with mining accidents leading to production halts, such as the complete shutdown of Indonesia's Grasberg mine, which accounts for 3% of global output. This has resulted in a projected global copper production growth rate of only 1.4% by 2025, significantly lower than the demand growth rate of 3% [5]. - Structural demand surges are primarily driven by the renewable energy sector. For instance, the copper usage in electric vehicles is 83 kg per vehicle, four times that of traditional fuel vehicles, with global sales expected to exceed 30 million units by 2025, leading to an additional copper demand of over 200,000 tons. Additionally, solar power installations require 500 tons of copper per gigawatt, translating to a demand increase of 300,000 tons from 596 GW of new installations [5]. - Macroeconomic and policy factors include a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, which has weakened the dollar and enhanced the financial attributes of commodities. Geopolitical tensions and trade distortions, such as tariffs, have also influenced copper inventory movements, with COMEX copper trading at a premium of $683 per ton over LME copper [6]. Group 2: Future Price Outlook - Short-term projections for copper prices (by Q4 2025) suggest a trading range of $9,800 to $11,000 per ton for LME copper, influenced by U.S.-China policies and the pace of mine restarts. A potential tariff escalation or inventory accumulation could push prices down to a support level of 83,000 yuan per ton [8]. - In the medium term (2026), if the copper supply gap persists, forecasts indicate a global shortage expanding to between 87,000 tons (UBS) and 300,000 tons (Citi), with price averages potentially rising to $11,000 to $12,000 per ton. Catalysts for this increase may include the implementation of China's "anti-involution" policies, growth in AI infrastructure, and continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [8]. - Long-term projections suggest that declining ore grades and insufficient capital expenditures, combined with surging demand from AI and renewable energy sectors, could see prices exceed $12,000 to $15,000 per ton by 2027, although economic recession or technological substitution risks should be monitored [8].

Core Viewpoint - Teck Resources (TECK.US) reported a significant profit increase of nearly 20% in Q3, driven by rising metal prices that offset production disruptions at its major copper mine in Chile [1] Financial Performance - Adjusted core earnings rose to CAD 1.17 billion (approximately USD 836 million), up from CAD 986 million in the same period last year, attributed to higher copper and zinc prices and increased by-product revenue [1] - Q3 revenue increased by 18% year-over-year to CAD 3.38 billion [1] Production Challenges - Teck Resources faced difficulties in ramping up production at its Quebrada Blanca mine in the Andes, Chile [1] - The company maintained its original production guidance for the Quebrada Blanca mine despite recent production cuts [1] - Copper production at the mine fell nearly 25% year-over-year to 39,600 tons, with September output at only 5,600 tons due to a 20-day shutdown [1] Strategic Context - The company is set to be acquired by Anglo American, creating one of the largest mining companies globally, positioning it as a key supplier amid growing copper demand [1] - Teck is restructuring its tailings facilities, which is currently impacting production, with the aim of achieving higher long-term output targets [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for Zijin Mining [10] Core Views - The strong growth in gold business is primarily driven by rising gold prices, while copper production has been affected by the Kamoa Copper Mine [2][9] - The company has achieved significant revenue and profit growth in Q3 2025, with total revenue of 864.89 billion yuan, up 8.14% year-on-year, and net profit of 145.72 billion yuan, up 57.14% year-on-year [1][10] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Zijin Mining reported operating revenue of 864.89 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.14%, and a net profit of 145.72 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 57.14% [1] - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 2542.00 billion yuan, up 10.33% year-on-year, and a net profit of 378.64 billion yuan, up 55.45% year-on-year [1] Mineral Production - In Q3 2025, the company produced 263,100 tons of copper, a decrease of 2.89% year-on-year, while gold production reached 23.76 tons, an increase of 25.98% year-on-year [2] - The total revenue from copper business was 141.69 billion yuan, up 19.12% year-on-year, with a total gross profit of 85.24 billion yuan, reflecting a gross profit margin of 60.16% [3] Gold Business - The gold business generated total revenue of 169.34 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a significant increase of 81.81% year-on-year, with a gross profit of 107.70 billion yuan, up 104.46% year-on-year [4][8] - The company successfully completed the IPO of its subsidiary, Zijin Gold International, raising 287 billion HKD, marking it as the largest IPO in the global gold mining industry [9] Profit Forecast - The report adjusts profit forecasts upward due to rising gold and copper prices, predicting revenues of 3526.83 billion yuan, 3879.77 billion yuan, and 4066.42 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding net profits of 534.41 billion yuan, 632.85 billion yuan, and 710.34 billion yuan [10][12]

总统Mulino曾在6月时表示，和第一量子矿物公司签订金属供应协议的Franco-Nevada公司同意停止针对巴拿马的 仲裁案后，"开始对话的可能性已经很明确"。 该矿曾占到全球铜矿开采量的1%。 对于巴拿马来说，该矿的重新开放可能创造数千个就业岗位，提振经济。该矿约占到巴拿马国内生产总值的5%。 Chapman表示，公众对于该矿的看法有所改善，最新民调显示，50%的受访者对该矿持有负面看法，而一年前这 一比例超过80%。 （文华综合） 作为全球最大的铜消费国，中国产业链面临三大挑战：上游资源对外依存度攀升、中游加工环节产能过剩、下游 需求受高铜价抑制。为助力行业应对变局，上海有色网携手铜产业链企业联合编制《2026中国铜产业链分布图》 中英双语版，点击此链接即可免费领取铜产业链分布图：https://s.wcd.im/v/470opZ19l/。 SMM联合制作联系人 刘明康 10月20日（周一），巴拿马财政部长在接受采访时表示，巴拿马将要求重启价值100亿美元的Cobre Panama铜矿的 任何协议都必须明确规定，该国是该铜矿的土地和资源所有方。 在最高法院裁决、环境抗疫和政治动荡后，该矿山于2023年底 ...

Core Viewpoint - Cangge Lithium Industry has officially resumed production as of October 11, 2025, with a revised annual production and sales plan of 8,510 tons, down from the original 11,000 tons, reflecting a reduction of 2,490 tons [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Cangge Mining reported a revenue of 2.401 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.35%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.751 billion yuan, up 47.26% year-on-year [2] - The significant profit increase is primarily due to investment income from its stake in Jilong Copper Industry, which reported a copper production of 142,500 tons and revenue of 11.821 billion yuan for the same period [3] Group 2: Strategic Developments - Cangge Mining's future growth will rely on the synergistic development of its three main business segments: potassium fertilizer, copper resources, and lithium resources from salt lakes [1][6] - The company holds a 30.78% stake in Jilong Copper Industry, which is a major contributor to its profits, and plans to continue supporting Jilong's operational development [4][5] Group 3: Investment Activities - Cangge Mining announced plans to invest up to 659 million yuan in the Jiangsu Zangqing New Energy Industry Development Fund, which focuses on equity investments in salt lake lithium mining companies [8] - The first investment target of the Jiangsu Zangqing Fund is the acquisition of controlling interest in the Mami Cuo Salt Lake, which has proven lithium chloride resources of approximately 250.11 thousand tons [9][10]

以下文章来源于培风客 ，作者Mike/Odysseus 培风客 . 介绍我遇见的过去，和我预见的未来 一 在 我踏上南美大陆之前，我的一个好朋友和我说，这个大陆被两种思想深深影响，一个是天主教信 仰，一个是马克思主义。他觉得我一定会很享受这个旅程。当然除了休闲和一些政治思考之外，我还 有一个理由：好奇今年南美铜矿产量的干扰来源，这一点在因为目的地戒严和动乱，取消一整段行程 之后，我觉得多少已经有点眉目。 所以我想聊聊政治，我运气很好 （或者很不好） ，在很多国家和地区混乱的时候，都机缘巧合出现 在当地。2012年前后尼泊尔选举和政府的危机，希腊债务危机，2013-2014哈萨克的汇率贬值，后面 还有很多......我很崇拜那些革命者，我觉得有很多事情都可以改变，也应该改变，我听着左派的口 号：自由，平等，博爱；Workers of the world，unite！还有那句经典的XX有理。我和他们共情。 而与此同时，我同样接受到很多保守主义的观点，我很欣赏那些优秀制度的设计者，他们对人性，历 史，政治和信仰的了解，让他们设计出一些在十几年甚至几十年里面维持社会稳定的秩序。我觉得稳 定也是宝贵的，很多事情是应该具 ...