Group 1 - The potential impact of U.S. tariff policies on the economy raises concerns among economists, suggesting that both the U.S. and global economies may only be experiencing a calm before a storm, with the worst yet to come [1][2] - Analysts warn that if tariffs reach 20% or higher, businesses may completely halt imports, leading to delayed major decisions and reduced economic activity [2] - The uncertainty caused by trade policies is seen as costly, potentially equivalent to the actual tariff rates, and inflation is expected to rise in the coming months, which may suppress growth [2] Group 2 - Germany's leadership is considering retaliatory measures against U.S. pressure for higher baseline tariffs, indicating a readiness for potential conflict in trade relations [3] - The U.S. economy is described as more fragile than recent data suggests, with employment, consumption, and an overvalued stock market nearing unfavorable turning points [3] - The article emphasizes that without a decisive shift away from protectionist policies by the U.S. President, the stability of the economy may be at risk [3]

Group 1: Silver Market Performance - The main silver futures contract in Shanghai closed at 9249 yuan per kilogram, up 1.00%, with an intraday high of 9437 yuan and a low of 9301 yuan [1] - COMEX silver closed at 39.24 USD per ounce, up 2.12%, with an intraday high of 39.38 USD and a low of 38.37 USD [1] Group 2: COMEX Silver Inventory Data - As of July 21, 2025, COMEX silver inventory was 15478.52 tons, equivalent to approximately 497,645,563 ounces [2] - The inventory increased from 15466.03 tons on July 18, 2025, indicating a rise in silver stock levels [2] Group 3: Trade Relations and Tariffs - Indonesia is negotiating details of a new trade agreement with the U.S., with recent tariff rates on Indonesian exports reduced from 32% to 19% [2] - Indonesia is seeking exemptions for its exports of palm oil and nickel, along with other commodities like cocoa and rubber [2] - The U.S. is considering imposing tariffs of at least 15% to 20% on any agreements reached with the EU, while maintaining a 25% tariff on Japanese automobiles [3]

Core Insights - The China Free Trade Zone Innovation Index for 2024-2025 was released, showing that the Qianhai Shekou Free Trade Zone continues to lead in institutional innovation capabilities for the fourth consecutive year [1] - The index evaluates 57 free trade pilot zones across five dimensions: investment liberalization, trade facilitation, financial reform and innovation, government function transformation, and legal environment [1] - From 2015 to 2024, the total import and export value of the Qianhai Shekou Free Trade Zone increased from 71.2 billion to 537.98 billion, with an average annual growth rate exceeding 25% [1] Group 1 - The Qianhai Shekou Free Trade Zone has implemented innovative policies such as offshore trade tax incentives, allowing eligible companies to enjoy tax exemption and refund policies [2] - The zone has seen the establishment of foreign-funded hospitals and support for Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan doctors to open clinics within the area [2] - A pilot program for integrated currency pool business has been launched, with a business scale exceeding 30 billion [2] Group 2 - The Qianhai Shekou Free Trade Zone has improved its port and transportation network, achieving full coverage of major inland river ports in the Greater Bay Area [2] - Initiatives such as the establishment of a one-stop service center for foreigners and the construction of cross-border data verification platforms have been implemented [2]

Core Viewpoint - Japan's ruling coalition faced a historic defeat in the recent House of Councillors election, marking the first time since the Liberal Democratic Party's (LDP) establishment in 1955 that it lost a majority in both houses, leading to increased political fragmentation and uncertainty in the economy [1][2] Economic Impact - Rising inflation and the introduction of foreign immigrants have led to public discontent against the LDP, exacerbated by the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which has caused a reversal of Japan's long-standing deflation and uncontrolled rice prices [1][2] - The Bank of Japan's benchmark interest rate remains at 0.5%, contributing to yen depreciation and import-driven inflation, while the influx of foreign tourists and investors has intensified local resentment towards foreigners [1][2] Political Dynamics - The political landscape is shifting towards the right, with younger voters supporting right-wing parties advocating for "Japan First" policies, which include rejecting immigration and proposing tax cuts and subsidies to alleviate living costs [1][3] - Prime Minister Kishida's weakened political foundation may hinder substantial concessions in U.S.-Japan trade negotiations, potentially leading to a stalemate in both the political arena and trade discussions [2][3] Fiscal Challenges - The call for tax reductions, particularly on consumption tax, is gaining traction, with 52% of the public supporting such measures, despite concerns that this could worsen Japan's fiscal situation and lead to increased long-term interest rates [3][4] - Japan's national debt stands at 250% of GDP, the highest among developed nations, necessitating low interest rates to manage government interest costs while stimulating exports [2][3] Market Reactions - Political uncertainty is expected to negatively impact yen-denominated assets, potentially driving international capital away from the Japanese bond market, which could trigger broader risks in U.S.-Japan capital markets [4]

Investment Overview - Fangda Special Steel Technology Co., Ltd. has established a wholly-owned subsidiary, Chongqing Yunhan Trading Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of RMB 30 million [1][2] - The investment is made by the wholly-owned subsidiary Nanchang Fangda Seagull Trading Co., Ltd. using its own funds [1][2] - This investment does not constitute a related party transaction or a major asset restructuring and does not require approval from the board of directors or shareholders [1][2] Chongqing Yunhan Basic Information - Chongqing Yunhan Trading Co., Ltd. was established on July 18, 2025, with a registered capital of RMB 30 million [2] - The company operates as a limited liability company and is located in Jiangbei District, Chongqing [2] - The business scope includes sales of metal ores, metal materials, import and export of goods, sales of construction steel products, and various other trading activities [2] Impact on the Company - The establishment of Chongqing Yunhan is expected to meet the business development needs of the company, optimize resource allocation, and enhance management efficiency [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the complex interplay between the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, rising inflation, and geopolitical tensions, highlighting the challenges faced by the U.S. economy and the potential implications for global markets. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - Dallas Fed President Logan's hawkish comments indicate that interest rates must remain restrictive for at least 6 to 12 months, dampening market hopes for rate cuts [3] - The June Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year, marking a four-month high, with core CPI increasing by 2.9%, exceeding the Fed's 2% target [3] - The internal divisions within the Fed are evident, with some officials advocating for immediate rate cuts while others express concerns about inflation driven by tariffs [7] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Indicators - The "super core inflation" excluding food, energy, and housing rose by 0.12%, significantly higher than the previous months, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [7] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed no month-on-month growth, with a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, the lowest since September 2024, suggesting a complex inflation landscape [9] - The U.S. Treasury's net issuance of bonds reached $1.2 trillion in Q2, a record for non-crisis periods, indicating significant supply pressure in the bond market [9] Group 3: Geopolitical Tensions and Trade Policies - The U.S. government announced a 19% tariff on Indonesian products, escalating trade tensions, while Mexico's president criticized U.S. policies regarding fentanyl [4] - The EU is preparing to impose additional tariffs on $84 billion worth of U.S. imports if trade negotiations fail, reflecting rising global trade tensions [9] - Trump's administration's actions, including potential tariffs on Russia, further complicate the global trade landscape [9] Group 4: Market Reactions and Investor Sentiment - Following the announcement of the PPI, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell, and the dollar index dropped, indicating cautious investor sentiment regarding inflation [9] - Gold prices experienced volatility, reflecting market uncertainty and potential reactions to changes in Fed leadership [10] - The market's response to Trump's potential dismissal of Powell was marked by significant fluctuations, highlighting the sensitivity of financial markets to political developments [8][10]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen is under increasing pressure due to political instability, which is undermining investment confidence in Japan [1] Group 1: Political Uncertainty - The recent Japanese upper house elections have reignited political uncertainty, adding to the vulnerabilities following last October's turmoil [1] - This political volatility coincides with the final deadline for Japan-U.S. trade negotiations on August 1, which is expected to amplify pressure on the yen [1] Group 2: Impact on Japanese Stocks - While the depreciation of the yen may benefit export-oriented companies, the surrounding political noise is likely to weaken overall investment confidence [1] - Any reliable resolution to the ongoing issues, although unlikely in the short term, could break a year-long deadlock and refocus attention on Japan's long-term economic outlook [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The real - estate market shows weak supply and demand, and policies are expected to be more aggressive in the second half of the year. Steel prices are rising due to policy and cost factors. Industrial production is stable, and infrastructure construction starts are relatively strong. There are mixed trends in consumption, trade, prices, and the issuance of interest - rate bonds is progressing steadily [1][2][4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Demand - New home sales decreased both on a week - on - week and year - on - year basis. As of the week of July 18, the transaction area of 20 - city commercial housing was 1.471 million square meters, down 22% week - on - week and 25% year - on - year. Second - hand home sales also declined. Automobile consumption improved marginally, with the average daily retail sales of passenger cars up 19.9% week - on - week and 9.7% year - on - year [12][38] 3.2 Production - In the mid - upstream, the blast furnace operating rate in Tangshan increased to 80.4%, while the rebar operating rate decreased to 43.0%. The PTA operating rate rose to 80.8%, and the operating rate of polyester filament in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions increased to 92.9%. In the downstream, the operating rates of all - steel and semi - steel tires in the automotive industry continued to improve, with the semi - steel tire operating rate at a seasonal high [44] 3.3 Investment - The apparent consumption of rebar declined, but its price increased by 1.0% week - on - week to 3,293 yuan/ton. The asphalt price rose by 0.8% to 3,630.8 yuan/ton. The cement price decreased by 1.7% to 108.0 points, while the cement shipping rate increased and the cement inventory ratio decreased [60] 3.4 Trade - In exports, port container throughput decreased by 0.9% week - on - week, and the CCFI composite index dropped by 0.8%. In imports, the CICFI composite index rose by 0.3% week - on - week [71] 3.5 Prices - The agricultural product wholesale price 200 index increased by 0.2% week - on - week, with pork prices rising by 0.2%. International crude oil prices generally declined, with Brent crude oil spot prices down 1.2% week - on - week. Gold prices rose slightly [77][82] 3.6 Interest - rate Bond Tracking - From July 21 to 25, the planned issuance of interest - rate bonds is 786.8 billion yuan, with a net financing of 56.2 billion yuan. As of July 18, the cumulative issuance progress of replacement bonds exceeded 90%, reaching 91.8%. The cumulative issuance progress of new general bonds was 61.8%, and that of new special bonds was 54.3% [93][95] 3.7 Policy Week Observation - The central bank conducted a 1.4 - trillion - yuan repurchase operation. The central city work conference set seven key tasks for urban work. The State Council studied measures to strengthen the domestic cycle. The central bank solicited opinions on canceling the freezing of collateral for bond repurchases. Local policies included allowing the use of housing provident funds for down payments in Shenzhen and implementing "trade - in" housing subsidies in Changsha [103][106][108]

Core Viewpoint - Nanjing Commercial Travel's stock price has decreased by 4.38% to 13.09 yuan, with a rolling PE ratio of 128.82 times, significantly higher than the industry average of 48.00 times [1][2] Company Summary - Nanjing Commercial Travel's main business includes commercial trade and tourism, with key products being textiles, machinery, chemicals, metals, non-metallic minerals, tourism services, and retail [1] - As of March 31, 2025, the number of shareholders is 30,086, a decrease of 906 from the previous period, with an average holding value of 352,800 yuan and an average holding of 27,600 shares [1] Financial Performance - In the first quarter of 2025, the company reported revenue of 191 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.98%, and a net profit of 3.51 million yuan, down 80.03% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 22.30% [1]

Group 1 - The article discusses a strategic combination of military aid and economic sanctions, highlighting the arrival of 12 million artillery shells in Russia and the subsequent imposition of a 500% tariff by the U.S. [1][3] - The military aid from North Korea is significant, with 12 million 152mm artillery shells being delivered, which are compatible with the Russian military's existing systems [3][5] - The U.S. sanctions are aimed at cutting off funding sources for Russia, particularly targeting its allies, China and India, rather than directly attacking Russia [7][11] Group 2 - The economic relationship between China and Russia is crucial, with energy trade between the two countries amounting to $62.426 billion, which is vital for Russia's economy [11][14] - China imports 108 million tons of oil from Russia, accounting for 19% of its total imports, while India has a higher dependency at 36%, making it more vulnerable to sanctions [14][16] - The article emphasizes the strategic differences between China and India in response to U.S. sanctions, with China having diversified its energy imports, while India faces significant challenges due to its high dependency on Russian oil [26][28] Group 3 - The 50-day countdown set by Trump is strategically significant, coinciding with a critical period in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, where the effects of the artillery aid will be fully realized [30][33] - The effectiveness of sanctions is questioned, as history shows that over time, sanctioned countries adapt and create alternative networks, as seen with the growing cooperation between China and Russia [35][37] - The article concludes that the real contest lies in the endurance and strategic patience of the involved nations, rather than the immediate impact of sanctions [39][41]