交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花周报（9.8-9.12） 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 本周回顾： 棉花本周震荡走弱，主力目前在14000下方震荡。金九开局不太理想，市场信心回落。 ICAC9月报：25/26年度产量2550万吨，消费2550万吨。USDA9月报：25/26年度产量2562.2万 吨，消费2587.2万吨，期末库存1592.5万吨。海关：8月纺织品服装出口265.4亿美元，同比 下降5%。7月份我国棉花进口5万吨，同比减少73.2%；棉纱进口11万吨，同比增加15.38%。农 村部8月25/26年度：产量625万吨，进口140万吨，消费740万吨，期末库存823万吨。 金九银十旺季到来，市场分 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花周报（9.1-9.5） 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 本周回顾： 本周棉花主力01主要围绕14000上下震荡。 ICAC9月报：25/26年度产量2550万吨，消费2550万吨。USDA8月报：25/26年度产量2539.2万 吨，消费2568.8万吨，期末库存1609.3万吨。海关：7月纺织品服装出口267.7亿美元，同比 下降0.1%。7月份我国棉花进口5万吨，同比减少73.2%；棉纱进口11万吨，同比增加15.38%。 农村部8月25/26年度：产量625万吨，进口140万吨，消费740万吨，期末库存823万吨。 金九银十旺季到来，市场分歧较大。目前新棉即将上市，套保压力 ...

Core Viewpoint - Jiangsu Guotai announced a massive investment plan totaling 138.3 billion RMB, which exceeds the company's total market value of 124 billion RMB, raising concerns among investors about the aggressive financial strategy [1][2][16]. Group 1: Investment Plans - The company plans to invest up to 120 billion RMB in entrusted wealth management and up to 18.3 billion RMB in securities investment, totaling 138.3 billion RMB [1][3][7]. - The securities investment will include various types such as new stock subscriptions, stock repurchases, and bond investments, with a specific allocation of 15 billion RMB for establishing a subsidiary dedicated to securities investment [5][7]. - The company aims to enhance the efficiency and effectiveness of idle funds while ensuring that daily operational needs are met [3][6]. Group 2: Project Termination - On the same day, Jiangsu Guotai announced the termination of a project to build a 400,000-ton lithium-ion battery electrolyte production facility, citing external conditions and intense market competition as reasons [9][11]. - The project had not yet commenced construction, and the company stated that this termination would not significantly impact its normal operations or current profits [11]. Group 3: Historical Performance and Market Context - Jiangsu Guotai's historical performance in securities investment has been poor, with cumulative losses exceeding 200 million RMB over the past two and a half years [14]. - Despite having ample funds, the company's aggressive investment strategy in the current bull market is seen as unusual, especially given the scale of the planned investments compared to its market value [16][14]. - The company’s core revenue still heavily relies on its textile and apparel business, which accounts for over 80% of its income [13].

Group 1 - Jiangsu Guotai plans to use up to 12 billion yuan of idle funds for entrusted wealth management and up to 1.831 billion yuan for securities investment, totaling over 13.8 billion yuan [1] - The company aims to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of idle funds while ensuring daily operational needs are met [1] - The types of entrusted wealth management products include structured deposits, income certificates, large deposits, and reverse repos [1] Group 2 - In the first half of 2025, Jiangsu Guotai achieved revenue of approximately 18.597 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.48%, and a net profit of 545 million yuan, up 10.85% [2] - The company’s main businesses include supply chain services and chemical new energy, with textile and apparel revenue accounting for 84.96% of total revenue [2] - Jiangsu Guotai's subsidiary, RuTai New Materials, has a strong market position in the electrolyte industry and collaborates with major battery manufacturers [2] Group 3 - Jiangsu Guotai announced the termination of a planned investment in a 400,000-ton lithium-ion battery electrolyte project due to external conditions and industry changes [3] - The project, initially approved in December 2021 with a total investment of 1.54 billion yuan, was deemed unfeasible due to overcapacity and declining profitability in the electrolyte market [3] - The company is actively coordinating with the government regarding the land for the project [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the performance and valuation of Nanjing Commercial Travel, with a current stock price of 12.36 yuan, up 6.64%, and a rolling PE ratio of 121.64, marking a new low in 23 days [1] - The total market capitalization of Nanjing Commercial Travel is 3.839 billion yuan, with the average industry PE ratio at 50.87 and the median at 41.36, placing the company at the 34th position in the industry ranking [1][2] - As of March 31, 2025, the number of shareholders for Nanjing Commercial Travel is 30,086, a decrease of 906 from the previous count, with an average holding value of 352,800 yuan and an average shareholding of 27,600 shares [1] Group 2 - The main business of Nanjing Commercial Travel includes commercial trade and tourism, with key products such as textiles, machinery, chemical raw materials, metal materials, non-metallic ores, tourism services, and general retail [1] - The latest quarterly report for Q1 2025 shows a revenue of 191 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.98%, and a net profit of 3.5138 million yuan, down 80.03%, with a sales gross margin of 22.30% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The textile industry in China is experiencing stable growth in the first half of the year, supported by a robust domestic demand market, despite facing challenges in exports and profitability [1][5]. Group 1: Industry Performance - The textile and chemical fiber industries' capacity utilization rates are 77.8% and 86%, respectively, higher than the national industrial average [1]. - The industrial added value of large-scale textile enterprises grew by 3.1% year-on-year, although the growth rate slowed by 1.5 percentage points compared to the previous year [1]. - Nine out of fifteen major textile product categories reported year-on-year production growth [1]. Group 2: Domestic Sales - The per capita clothing consumption expenditure of residents increased by 2.1% year-on-year, with a growth acceleration of 0.9 percentage points compared to the first quarter [2]. - Retail sales of clothing, shoes, and textile products in large retail enterprises grew by 3.1% year-on-year, an increase of 1.8 percentage points from the previous year [2]. - Online sales of clothing-related products rose by 1.4% year-on-year, surpassing the first quarter's growth rate of 1.5% [2]. Group 3: Export Performance - The total export value of textiles and clothing reached $143.98 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.8% [3]. - Exports of intermediate products like chemical fiber and textile yarns grew by 1.8%, while clothing exports decreased by 0.2% to $73.46 billion due to weak overseas demand and tariff policies [3]. - Exports to the U.S. saw a decline of 5.3% year-on-year, while exports to markets like the EU, UK, South Korea, Canada, Pakistan, Chile, and Nigeria showed good growth [3]. Group 4: Investment and Profitability - Fixed asset investment in the textile, clothing, and chemical fiber industries grew by 14.5%, 27%, and 10.6% year-on-year, respectively, with acceleration in growth rates compared to the previous year [4]. - Revenue for large-scale textile enterprises decreased by 3% year-on-year, and total profits fell by 9.4% [4]. - The profit margin for large textile enterprises was 3%, down by 0.2 percentage points from the previous year, with asset turnover rates slowing due to inventory fluctuations [4]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The textile industry faces numerous uncertainties in the second half of the year, but the expanding domestic market is expected to drive high-quality development [5]. - The integration of cultural, health, and green consumption trends with the textile industry is anticipated to enhance the supply system's upgrade [5].

Core Viewpoint - Nanjing Commercial Travel's stock closed at 11.57 yuan, with a PE ratio of 113.86, significantly higher than the industry average of 47.22 [1][2] Company Summary - Nanjing Commercial Travel's main business includes commercial trade and tourism, with key products being textiles, machinery, chemicals, metals, non-metallic minerals, tourism services, and retail [1] - As of March 31, 2025, the company had 30,086 shareholders, a decrease of 906 from the previous period, with an average holding value of 352,800 yuan and an average shareholding of 27,600 shares [1] Financial Performance - In the first quarter of 2025, the company reported revenue of 191 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.98%, and a net profit of 3.51 million yuan, down 80.03% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 22.30% [1]

Company Overview - Nanjing Commercial Travel Co., Ltd. focuses on commercial trade and tourism, with main products including textiles, machinery, chemical raw materials, metal materials, non-metallic minerals, tourism services, and general retail [1] Financial Performance - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 191 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.98%, and a net profit of 3.51 million yuan, down 80.03% year-on-year, with a gross profit margin of 22.30% [1] Market Position - As of August 7, the company's stock closed at 11.23 yuan, down 1.40%, with a rolling price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 110.52, significantly higher than the industry average of 46.54 and the median of 38.52 [1][2] - The total market capitalization of Nanjing Commercial Travel is 3.488 billion yuan [1] Shareholder Information - As of March 31, 2025, the number of shareholders is 30,086, a decrease of 906 from the previous count, with an average holding value of 352,800 yuan and an average shareholding of 27,600 shares per shareholder [1]

Company Overview - Nanjing Commercial Travel Co., Ltd. focuses on commercial trade and tourism, with main products including textiles, machinery, chemical raw materials, metal materials, non-metallic minerals, tourism services, and general retail [1] - As of March 31, 2025, the company had 30,086 shareholders, a decrease of 906 from the previous period, with an average holding value of 352,800 yuan and an average holding quantity of 27,600 shares [1] Financial Performance - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 191 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.98%, and a net profit of 3.51 million yuan, down 80.03% year-on-year, with a gross profit margin of 22.30% [1] - The current stock price is 12.07 yuan, down 1.15%, with a rolling PE ratio of 118.79 times, and a total market capitalization of 3.749 billion yuan [1] Industry Comparison - The average PE ratio for the trade industry is 47.62 times, with a median of 38.89 times, positioning Nanjing Commercial Travel at the 33rd rank within the industry [1][2] - The industry average market capitalization is 9.521 billion yuan, while the median is 7.918 billion yuan [2]

Company Overview - Nanjing Commercial Travel Co., Ltd. focuses on commercial trade and tourism, with main products including textiles, machinery, chemical raw materials, metal materials, non-metallic ores, tourism services, and general retail [1] - As of March 31, 2025, the company had 30,086 shareholders, a decrease of 906 from the previous period, with an average holding value of 352,800 yuan and an average holding of 27,600 shares per shareholder [1] Financial Performance - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 191 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.98%, and a net profit of 3.51 million yuan, down 80.03% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 22.30% [1] - The current stock price is 11.83 yuan, down 1.25%, with a rolling PE ratio of 116.42 times, and a total market capitalization of 3.674 billion yuan [1] Industry Comparison - The average PE ratio for the trade industry is 46.62 times, with a median of 38.59 times, placing Nanjing Commercial Travel at the 33rd position within the industry [1][2] - The static PE ratio for Nanjing Commercial Travel is 80.51 times, and the price-to-book ratio is 6.05 [2]