Core Insights - Chengdu mining leader Shengxin Lithium Industry has terminated its plan for a Hong Kong listing and is introducing strategic investors to raise no more than 3.2 billion yuan [2] Group 1 - Shengxin Lithium Industry was initially planning to go public in Hong Kong but has now decided to halt this process [2] - The company is seeking to raise funds through strategic investors, with a maximum fundraising target set at 3.2 billion yuan [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Views of the Report - For the stock index, after a previous continuous rise, recent hot sectors have rotated rapidly, with technology remaining the market's main theme. In the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the mid - to long - term strategy is mainly to go long on dips [4]. - For treasury bonds, the central bank's restart of treasury bond trading is short - term positive for the bond market sentiment. In the medium term, the bond market in the fourth quarter is mainly affected by fundamentals, the implementation time of the fund fee rate new regulations, and institutional allocation power. The bond market is expected to oscillate and recover [6]. - For precious metals, the release of the Fed's loose monetary policy expectations still requires a certain period. It is recommended to go long on silver on dips. The reference operating range for the Shanghai gold main contract is 880 - 966 yuan/gram, and for the Shanghai silver main contract is 11001 - 12366 yuan/kilogram [8]. - For non - ferrous metals, different metals have different outlooks. For example, copper prices have a strong support at the bottom; aluminum prices may maintain an oscillating and strengthening trend; zinc prices are expected to be strong in the short - term but have limited upside space; lead prices are expected to be strong in the short - term; nickel prices may be weak in the short - term but have long - term support; tin prices may oscillate and rise in the short - term; lithium carbonate prices may oscillate in a range; alumina prices are recommended to be observed; stainless steel prices are difficult to rebound substantially; and casting aluminum alloy prices have stronger support [11][13][15][16][18][21][23][26][28][30]. - For black building materials, steel consumption may gradually recover in the future; iron ore prices may experience a phased decline; glass prices' upward space is restricted; soda ash prices will continue to oscillate weakly; manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are likely to follow the black sector's trend; industrial silicon prices may consolidate; and polysilicon prices' supply - demand pattern may improve marginally [33][35][37][38][42][44][47]. - For energy and chemicals, rubber prices have a stabilizing sign; oil prices are not recommended to be overly shorted in the short - term; methanol prices are recommended to be observed; urea prices are recommended to be observed; pure benzene and styrene prices may stop falling; PVC prices are expected to have a continuous inventory accumulation pressure; ethylene glycol prices are recommended to be shorted on rallies; PTA prices may see an opportunity for processing fee repair; p - xylene prices are recommended to be observed; polyethylene prices may maintain a low - level oscillation; and polypropylene prices are under pressure from high inventory [52][54][56][59][61][63][65][67][70][72][74]. - For agricultural products, hog prices are expected to decline slightly; egg prices are expected to be mainly stable with a slight decline; soybean meal prices are expected to rise in the short - term and be sold on rallies in the medium - term; oil prices' palm oil may reverse the weak trend; sugar prices are recommended to be shorted after the rebound weakens; and cotton prices have limited upward space [76][78][83][86][89][91]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - financial Category Stock Index - **Market Information**: A Chinese team has developed a new "direct deamination" process for aromatic amines; Samsung has suspended DDR5 DRAM contract quotes; Amazon has signed a $38 billion agreement with OpenAI; and JPMorgan expects greater upside potential for AI capital expenditure [2]. - **Strategy View**: After a continuous rise, hot sectors rotate rapidly, and technology is the main theme. The long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Monday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS had different changes. The central bank and the Bank of Korea renewed a bilateral currency swap agreement, and the winning results of CDB's financial bonds were announced. The central bank conducted 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and had a net withdrawal of funds [5]. - **Strategy View**: The central bank's restart of treasury bond trading is short - term positive for the bond market sentiment. The bond market in the fourth quarter is affected by multiple factors and is expected to oscillate and recover [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold and silver prices declined. COMEX gold and silver prices were reported. Fed officials' statements were mixed, and the weak US manufacturing PMI increased the market's interest - rate cut expectations [7]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to go long on silver on dips. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai gold and silver main contracts are provided [8]. Non - ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market Information**: Due to weak PMI data, copper prices oscillated and declined. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic social inventory increased [10]. - **Strategy View**: After the short - term optimism is realized, copper prices have strong support at the bottom. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai copper and LME copper are provided [11]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices continued to strengthen. LME aluminum inventory decreased, and domestic social inventory increased [12]. - **Strategy View**: Global trade situation improvement and supply - side disturbances support aluminum prices, which may maintain an oscillating and strengthening trend. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai aluminum and LME aluminum are provided [13]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Shanghai zinc index rose. LME zinc price increased. Domestic and foreign inventories and other data are reported [14][15]. - **Strategy View**: Domestic zinc ore inventory declined, and smelting profit decreased. Zinc prices are expected to be strong in the short - term but have limited upside space [15]. Lead - **Market Information**: Shanghai lead index rose. LME lead price increased. Domestic and foreign inventories and other data are reported [16]. - **Strategy View**: Lead ore inventory declined, and lead prices are expected to be strong in the short - term [16]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices oscillated narrowly. Spot prices and cost - end prices are reported [17]. - **Strategy View**: Short - term recommendation is to wait and see. If nickel prices fall enough, long positions can be considered. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai nickel and LME nickel are provided [18][19]. Tin - **Market Information**: Shanghai tin prices rose. Supply, demand, and inventory data are reported [20]. - **Strategy View**: Tin prices may oscillate and rise in the short - term. It is recommended to go long on dips. The reference operating ranges for domestic and overseas tin are provided [21]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The spot index of lithium carbonate declined, and the futures contract price rose [22]. - **Strategy View**: Lithium prices may oscillate in a range. Attention should be paid to relevant factors. The reference operating range for the futures contract is provided [23]. Alumina - **Market Information**: Alumina index declined. Spot prices, inventory, and other data are reported [24][25]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract is provided, and attention should be paid to relevant policies [26]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices declined. Spot prices, inventory, and other data are reported [27]. - **Strategy View**: Stainless steel prices are difficult to rebound substantially in the short - term [28]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Casting aluminum alloy prices strengthened. Price, inventory, and other data are reported [29]. - **Strategy View**: Cost - end support and supply - side policies strengthen the price support [30]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market Information**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices declined. Spot prices, inventory, and other data are reported [32]. - **Strategy View**: Steel prices showed a weak oscillating trend. Future steel consumption may gradually recover [33]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices declined. Spot prices, inventory, and other data are reported [34]. - **Strategy View**: Iron ore demand continues to weaken, and inventory pressure remains. There is a risk of a phased decline in ore prices [35]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass - Market Information**: Glass prices declined. Spot prices, inventory, and other data are reported [36]. - **Glass - Strategy View**: Market sentiment is boosted, but the upward space is restricted. The impact of policies and production cuts needs to be observed [37]. - **Soda Ash - Market Information**: Soda ash prices declined. Spot prices, inventory, and other data are reported [38]. - **Soda Ash - Strategy View**: Soda ash prices will continue to oscillate weakly in the short - term [38]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices rose. Spot prices, inventory, and other data are reported [39]. - **Strategy View**: They are likely to follow the black sector's trend. Manganese silicon may be driven by manganese ore, and ferrosilicon has low operability [42]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon - Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices rose. Spot prices, inventory, and other data are reported [43]. - **Industrial Silicon - Strategy View**: Industrial silicon prices may consolidate. Supply - side pressure persists, and demand support weakens [44]. - **Polysilicon - Market Information**: Polysilicon prices declined. Spot prices, inventory, and other data are reported [45][46]. - **Polysilicon - Strategy View**: The supply - demand pattern may improve marginally. Attention should be paid to relevant factors [47]. Energy and Chemicals Category Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices showed a stabilizing sign. Supply, demand, and inventory data are reported [49][50][51]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to trade long in the short - term and partially build hedging positions [52]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude oil and refined oil prices rose. European ARA inventory data are reported [53]. - **Strategy View**: Oil prices are not recommended to be overly shorted in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see [54]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices declined. Spot prices, inventory, and other data are reported [55]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to wait and see. High inventory and weak demand may lead to a further decline in prices [56]. Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices declined. Spot prices, inventory, and other data are reported [57]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to wait and see. The supply - demand pattern is relatively loose [59]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: Pure benzene prices declined, and styrene prices had different trends. Supply, demand, and inventory data are reported [60]. - **Strategy View**: Benzene and styrene prices may stop falling. The BZN spread has upward repair space [61]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices declined. Cost, supply, demand, and inventory data are reported [62]. - **Strategy View**: There is a continuous inventory accumulation pressure. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term [63]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices declined. Supply, demand, and inventory data are reported [64]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to short on rallies. There is a risk of continuous inventory accumulation [65]. PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices rose. Supply, demand, and inventory data are reported [66]. - **Strategy View**: There is an opportunity for processing fee repair. The supply - demand pattern is complex [67]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: p - Xylene prices rose. Supply, demand, and inventory data are reported [68][69]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to wait and see. PXN may be under pressure in November [70]. Polyethylene PE - **Market Information**: PE prices declined. Supply, demand, and inventory data are reported [71]. - **Strategy View**: PE prices may maintain a low - level oscillation. Supply - demand and other factors are considered [72]. Polypropylene PP - **Market Information**: PP prices declined. Supply, demand, and inventory data are reported [73]. - **Strategy View**: PP prices are under pressure from high inventory. Supply - demand and other factors are considered [74]. Agricultural Products Category Hog - **Market Information**: Hog prices declined. Supply and demand data are reported [76]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to short on rallies. Cautious investors can use reverse hedging positions [77]. Egg - **Market Information**: Egg prices were stable with a slight decline. Supply and demand data are reported [78]. - **Strategy View**: Egg prices are expected to be mainly stable with a slight decline in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the upper pressure in the medium - term [79]. Soybean Meal - **Market Information**: CBOT soybean prices rose. Supply, demand, and inventory data are reported [80]. - **Strategy View**: Soybean meal prices are expected to rise in the short - term and be sold on rallies in the medium - term [83]. Oil - **Market Information**: Palm oil export and production data are reported. Indian edible oil import data are reported [84]. - **Strategy View**: Palm oil may reverse the weak trend. It is recommended to observe the export and production situation [86]. Sugar - **Market Information**: Sugar prices oscillated. Supply, demand, and inventory data are reported [87][88]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to short after the rebound weakens. The supply - demand pattern is considered [89]. Cotton - **Market Information**: Cotton prices oscillated narrowly. Supply, demand, and inventory data are reported [90]. - **Strategy View**: Cotton prices have limited upward space. The supply - demand pattern is considered [91].

2025年11月04日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：关注美国银行风险 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：震荡反弹 | 2 | | 铜：LME库存减少，限制价格回落 | 4 | | 锌：偏强运行 | 6 | | 铅：海外库存持续减少，支撑价格 | 8 | | 锡：关注宏观影响 | 9 | | 铝：偏强震荡 | 11 | | 氧化铝：下方有支撑 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：偏强震荡 | 11 | | 镍：冶炼端累库压制，矿端不确定性支撑 | 13 | | 不锈钢：钢价低位窄幅震荡运行 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 11 月 4 日 黄金：关注美国银行风险 白银：震荡反弹 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the performance of A-share listed companies in Henan province shows a steady progress amidst a complex economic environment, with many companies achieving significant revenue growth [1][2] - In terms of revenue, Luoyang Molybdenum Co. leads with an operating income of 145.485 billion yuan, while several other companies, including Muyuan Foods and Shuanghui Development, also reported revenues exceeding 30 billion yuan [1] - A total of 85 out of 112 listed companies in Henan achieved profitability in the first three quarters, with 53 companies reporting net profits exceeding 100 million yuan and 13 companies exceeding 1 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - Research and development (R&D) expenses for Henan listed companies reached a total of 17.064 billion yuan, with 62 companies reporting year-on-year growth in R&D spending [2] - Eleven companies, including AVIC Optoelectronics and Hualan Biological, allocated over 10% of their operating income to R&D, indicating a shift towards self-driven innovation [2] - The performance of these listed companies not only reflects the current economic situation but also indicates future industry development directions and potential [2]

Core Insights - In October, among 1,048 comparable ordinary equity funds, 290 funds achieved positive performance, accounting for 28% of the total. Meanwhile, 755 funds experienced declines, with only 4 funds rising over 10% [1][2]. Fund Performance - The top-performing funds in October included: - Tongtai New Energy 1-Year Holding Stock A with a gain of 14.34% - Tongtai New Energy 1-Year Holding Stock C with a gain of 14.31% - Caitong Integrated Circuit Industry Stock A with a gain of 12.96% - Caitong Integrated Circuit Industry Stock C with a gain of 12.88% [1][2]. - The funds that rose over 5% also included: - Lobo Mai Resource Selection Stock A and C - Jiashi Resource Selection Stock A and C - HSBC Jin Trust Large Cap Volatility Stock A and C - HSBC Jin Trust Small Cap Low Volatility Stock A and C - Qianhai Open Source Advantage Blue Chip Stock C - Chuangjin Hexin Resource Theme Selection Stock A [2][3]. Fund Holdings - Tongtai New Energy's top ten holdings include: - Yongding Co., Xuguang Electronics, Hezhuan Intelligent, Jingda Co., Antai Technology, Dongfang Tantalum, Aikexibo, Wanyi Technology, Wangzi New Materials, and Guoguang Electric [1]. - Caitong Integrated Circuit Industry Stock's major holdings are: - Industrial Fulian, Shengyi Technology, Shengyi Electronics, Zhongji Xuchuang, Shenzhen South Circuit, Hudian Co., China National Materials, Dingtai High-tech, New Yisheng, and Dongcai Technology [2]. - Lobo Mai Resource Selection Stock focuses on mining stocks, with significant holdings in: - Zijin Mining, Ganfeng Lithium, Zhaojin Mining, Tianqi Lithium, Chifeng Jilong Gold, and Luoyang Molybdenum [2][3]. Declining Funds - In October, 10 ordinary equity funds saw declines exceeding 10%, primarily in the previously strong sectors of chips, semiconductors, and robotics. Notable funds include: - Xin'ao Advanced Manufacturing Stock A/C with declines of 10.70% and 10.72% respectively [3][4]. - Other funds with significant declines include: - Chuangjin Hexin Chip Industry Stock A/C and GF Hong Kong Stock Growth Selection Stock A/C, with declines of 10.53%, 10.56%, 10.40%, and 10.42% respectively [4].

Core Insights - The recent proposal by the Central Committee emphasizes the importance of a modern industrial system as the material and technological foundation for Chinese-style modernization, focusing on the real economy and aiming for intelligent, green, and integrated development [2][3] Group 1: Strategic Focus - The primary strategic task for the 15th Five-Year Plan has shifted from technological innovation to industrial system construction and real economy development, with technology now serving as a supporting role [2][3] - The dual motivations for this strategic shift include the transition of development stages and the evolution of competitive paradigms, highlighting the need for innovation to be rooted in the industrial context to enhance economic resilience and competitiveness [3] Group 2: Manufacturing Sector Importance - The proposal underscores the critical role of maintaining a reasonable proportion of manufacturing in the economy, which is essential for strengthening the foundation of the real economy [3][4] - Historical data indicates that countries like Japan and Germany maintain a stable manufacturing value-added ratio of around 20% of GDP, which supports their international competitiveness [4] Group 3: Development Pathways - The construction of a modern industrial system should focus on four key areas: optimizing the manufacturing tier, promoting service industry development, solidifying infrastructure, and enhancing the market environment [5][6] - Specific actions include upgrading traditional industries, fostering new industries as core pillars, and innovating regulatory frameworks to support future industries [5][6] - The service sector is to be expanded and improved, integrating with advanced manufacturing and modern agriculture to enhance overall economic efficiency [6]

Core Viewpoint - The development of technology finance is crucial for enhancing the new quality of productivity, with a focus on improving comprehensive financial service levels for technology-driven enterprises [1] Group 1: Technology Finance Development - Zhongyin Securities aims to support technology-driven enterprises throughout their lifecycle by providing precise financial support, leveraging its "commercial bank + investment bank + investment" collaborative advantages [1] - The company has established the Zhongyin Science and Technology Innovation Mother Fund, which has exceeded 10 billion yuan in scale, to cultivate patient capital and support hard technology sectors [2] - The mother fund employs a dual-track investment strategy, allocating 70% of funds to sub-funds focused on niche technology sectors and 30% to direct investments in high-quality technology projects [2] Group 2: Investment Strategy and Coverage - The fund has already covered eight cities, including Shenzhen and Chengdu, aiming to create a multi-dimensional investment layout [3] - Zhongyin Securities has also initiated specialized funds in traditional Chinese medicine and the Belt and Road Initiative, reinforcing its leading position in niche industry funds [3] Group 3: Financing Solutions for Technology Enterprises - Zhongyin Securities has effectively utilized its investment banking capabilities to address financing challenges for technology enterprises, ranking second in equity underwriting and twelfth in technology bonds in 2024 [4] - The company has successfully issued innovative financial products, such as the first county-level technology bond for small and micro enterprises, marking significant progress in financial innovation [4] Group 4: Mergers and Acquisitions - In the mergers and acquisitions sector, Zhongyin Securities played a key role as an independent financial advisor in a major A+H share merger, demonstrating its expertise in managing complex transactions [5] Group 5: Comprehensive Financial Services - The collaborative model between Zhongyin Securities and China Bank provides comprehensive financial support throughout the lifecycle of technology enterprises, exemplified by the case of Yaokai Ankang, a biotech firm [6] - The company is committed to optimizing its customer service model as part of its 14th Five-Year Plan, focusing on enhancing collaborative mechanisms to support technological innovation and industrial transformation [7]

Major Events - Xiaoma Zhixing-W (02026) has set the share price for its offering at HKD 139 [1] - Boleton (01333) has entered into a strategic cooperation with Fujian Rixin, focusing on autonomous driving for mining transportation [1] - Zhaojin Mining (01818) has signed a strategic cooperation memorandum with Ant Group [1] - Yimai Sunshine (02522) subsidiary has signed a data co-construction cooperation agreement with Beijing Xianxing District and Beijing Computing Power [1] - Yaojie Ankang-B (02617) has reached a project cooperation agreement with Neurocrine [1] - Heng Rui Pharmaceutical (01276) plans to include HRS-5965 capsules in the priority review process [1] Financial Data - XPeng Motors-W (09868) delivered 42,013 smart electric vehicles in October, a year-on-year increase of 76%, setting a new monthly delivery record [1] - Fuwai Group (01828) reported a sales revenue of USD 1.935 billion for the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 37% [1] - Shenzhen Holdings (00604) recorded total contract sales of approximately CNY 9.838 billion for the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 24% [1] - Weigao Group (01066) reported third-quarter revenue of approximately CNY 3.26 billion, a year-on-year growth of about 2.6% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Coeur Mining (CDE.US) is set to acquire New Gold (NGD.US) in an all-stock deal valued at approximately $7 billion, creating a new giant in the North American precious metals sector with a combined market capitalization of about $20 billion [1] Group 1: Acquisition Details - The acquisition will allow Coeur Mining to operate in Canada for the first time, as New Gold has two gold production sites in Canada: Rainy River and New Afton [1] - Following the merger, the new entity is expected to produce approximately 900,000 ounces of gold and 20 million ounces of silver annually by 2026, positioning it among the largest in North America [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Coeur Mining's stock price fell over 8% to $15.63, while New Gold's stock price increased nearly 3% to $7.58 following the announcement of the acquisition [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the key points from the "15th Five-Year Plan" and related documents, highlighting economic growth, technological advancement, and the importance of domestic demand and income growth. Group 1: "15th Five-Year Plan" Key Information - The main goals include maintaining economic growth within a reasonable range, improving total factor productivity, and significantly increasing the resident consumption rate [3][4] - Specific industries are identified for consolidation and enhancement, including mining, metallurgy, chemicals, and emerging strategic industries like new energy and quantum technology [3][4] - The plan emphasizes "extraordinary measures" to achieve breakthroughs in key technologies across various sectors [3] - Domestic demand is prioritized with a focus on increasing public service spending and government investment in livelihood projects [3] - New approaches to resident income include promoting collective wage negotiations and improving minimum wage adjustment mechanisms [3] Group 2: Auxiliary Documents Key Information - The "Guidance Questions" document outlines a target for per capita GDP to exceed $20,000 by 2035, requiring an average annual GDP growth of 4.17% during the 15th and 16th Five-Year Plans [5][26] - Financial and capital market reforms are highlighted, including the restructuring of small financial institutions and the completion of financial legislation [5][6] - The real estate sector is addressed with measures to promote the sale of existing homes and regulate pre-sale fund supervision [7] - State-owned enterprises are encouraged to consolidate and avoid redundant construction, while also improving the wage determination mechanism [7] Group 3: Recent Noteworthy Events - The recent meeting between the Chinese and U.S. presidents resulted in agreements to adjust tariffs and suspend certain export controls, which may impact trade dynamics [8][24] - The introduction of new financial regulations aims to enhance the performance of investment funds and restrict certain financial practices [9][29] - The National Development and Reform Commission reported on local government debt limits and the allocation of funds to support various projects, emphasizing investment in digital economy and infrastructure [9][22]