2025 年 12 月 07 日 策 略 研 究 策 略 定 期 报 弱美元降息或触发风险，中国供给定价相对稳健 ——周观点 投资要点： 近期观点 1、 美国中短期信用宽松，但中长期阻力越来越大。 告 2、 美国若持续宽信用，则海外通胀压力增加，中国价格复苏或 将加速，中国市场偏向大盘价值风格。 3、 AI 泡沫破灭是大概率事件，关注弱美元降息触发风险。 团队成员 分析师： 李浩(S0210524050003) lh30530@hfzq.com.cn 分析师： 李刘魁(S0210524050006) llk30550@hfzq.com.cn 相关报告 4、 交易层面，风险暴露前控制仓位，交易新老能源。 5、 长期看好保险，反内卷行业，中概互联网，军贸。 1、顶层设计下的资本市场系统性改革宣言及投资 机会分析——评吴清主席文章《提高资本市场制 度的包容性适应性》——2025.12.05 2、"十五五"资本市场改革战略蓝图 —— 2025.12.05 3、降息预期主导市场情绪——2025.12.01 风险提示 全球制造业复苏受阻；中美关系改善不及预期；美国地产市场不 健康 证 券 研 究 报 告 华福证券 诚信专 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the US is experiencing further short-term credit easing, but long-term resistance is expected to increase [2][3] - The driving force behind China's price recovery is strengthening, with greater momentum for RMB appreciation as US credit easing continues [3][8] - If the US maintains its credit easing, it may lead to increased inflationary pressures overseas, favoring large-cap value stocks in the Chinese market [3][8] Group 2 - The report highlights a significant decline in the Hong Kong stock market, with the Hang Seng Technology Index dropping by 5.23% in November [11] - The industrial profits in China showed a year-on-year decline of 5.5% in October, down 27.1 percentage points from September, indicating a challenging economic environment [8] - The report notes that while most sectors declined, consumer sectors showed resilience, with specific industries like fisheries and steel raw materials outperforming [28][32]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of China has initiated the creation of national emerging industry development demonstration bases, covering nine major fields including new generation information technology and new energy, with a target of establishing 100 park-type and 1,000 enterprise-type bases by 2035, which will receive policy and resource support [2] - The Federal Reserve officials have signaled a potential interest rate cut in December, with an 82.9% probability of a 25 basis point cut according to CME FedWatch, leading to a 2.69% increase in the Nasdaq and a broad rise in technology stocks [2] - Former President Trump signed an executive order for the AI "Genesis Plan," opening federal scientific data sets, while Amazon plans to invest $50 billion to expand AI and supercomputing infrastructure for the U.S. government, benefiting AI-related companies [2] Group 2 - The European Union has approved a budget of €192.8 billion for 2026, focusing on defense and high-end manufacturing, with €716 million reserved for emergency funds, which will create procurement opportunities for related industries [3] - The Bank of Israel has lowered the benchmark interest rate from 4.5% to 4.25%, allowing businesses in the Middle East to optimize their capital allocation [3] Group 3 - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 2.82%, with Hesai Technology increasing by over 12%, indicating strong capital interest in Chinese tech companies like Baidu and Alibaba, which will benefit their supply chain partners [4] - Spot gold has surpassed $4,140 per ounce, and WTI crude oil has risen above $59 per barrel, providing profit opportunities for energy and precious metals companies [4] Group 4 - The European Central Bank has warned about the risks of stablecoins diverting retail deposits in the Eurozone, urging companies involved in crypto assets to manage compliance costs [5] - The U.S. pressured the EU to amend digital regulations in exchange for lowering steel and aluminum tariffs, which was rejected, creating tariff volatility risks for related import-export businesses [6] - Bitcoin has surpassed $89,000, and Thailand's Bitkub plans to raise $200 million through a Hong Kong IPO in 2026, highlighting opportunities in the Hong Kong digital asset hub [6]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the profit growth of Chinese industrial enterprises continued to improve, with a year-on-year increase of 21.6% in September, up 1.2 percentage points from August. The industrial added value also saw a year-on-year growth of 6.5%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points from the previous value [8][12]. - The distribution of profits in the midstream manufacturing and upstream raw material processing sectors has improved, indicating a positive impact from anti-involution policies and overseas investment expansion [8][12]. - The report notes that the macroeconomic environment presents a contradiction between AI-related debt expansion and widespread energy inflation, which may pressure the expansion of AI investments [2][30]. Group 2 - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a decline in October, with the Hang Seng Index dropping by 3.53%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index falling by 4.05%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index decreasing by 8.62% [12][30]. - The report indicates a shift in market style, with a significant pullback in technology stocks while cyclical sectors led the gains, reflecting the tension between AI investments and energy demands [30][31]. - Traditional cyclical sectors showed relative strength, with industries such as coke, steel raw materials, and decoration leading in excess returns compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [30][37].