今天分享的是：2025冬季消费趋势洞察报告-DT商业观察 报告共计：30页 2025冬季消费趋势洞察总结 随着全国降温与冰雪季来临，2025年冬季消费呈现出多元化、体验化的鲜明特征，冰雪旅游、室内休闲、冬日美食三大板块成为核心热点，消费者愈发 注重温暖体验、社交互动与情绪价值，推动相关消费场景持续升级。 冰雪旅游成为冬季出行核心选择，热度全面攀升。全国滑雪人次同比增长12.9%，人均滑雪次数创下新高，亲子家庭占滑雪场GMV比重达54%，00后等 新生世代增速迅猛。"南人北上"成为新趋势，武汉、上海、重庆等南方城市游客成为滑雪新势力，女性参与度也显著高于男性。冰雪旅游不再局限于滑 雪运动，"一站式滑雪+吃住玩"模式带动周边消费，冰雪酒店搜索量同比增长172%，客栈民宿订单量增长97%，东三省酒店民宿订单量提升63%。同 时，"家门口的雪乡"崛起，南北各地冰雪主题乐园、景区蓬勃发展，直播推荐成为重要引流渠道，订单量同比增长120%。 "精致猫冬"趋势凸显，室内休闲场景持续火热。消费者从"宅家"转向"出门宅"，休闲娱乐搜索量同比增长63%，成交GMV更是激增393%，游戏厅、电影 院、洗浴中心成为热门选择。洗浴中心 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consolidated revenues for Q3 2025 were $934 million, a 3% increase year-over-year, driven by growth in both Topgolf and golf equipment segments [19][20] - Q3 adjusted EBITDA was $115 million, a decrease of $4 million year-over-year, primarily due to $12 million in incremental tariffs [19][20] - The company raised its full-year 2025 revenue guidance to a range of $3.90 to $3.94 billion, up $60 million at the midpoint [22][23] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Golf equipment revenue increased 4% year-over-year to $305 million, with a 4% increase in golf clubs and a 6% increase in golf balls [20] - Topgolf revenue increased 4% year-over-year to $472 million, driven by the addition of six new venues and a 1% increase in same-venue sales [20] - Active lifestyle segment revenue was approximately flat at $156 million, with operating income down due to tariffs [10][20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The US golf market is up 2% year-to-date, with mid-single-digit growth in sell-through reports [5][6] - Rounds played are up 1.4% year-to-date, indicating strong participation in the sport [6] - Market conditions in Europe and the UK are positive, while Japan and Korea are experiencing declines [6] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on delivering "demonstrably superior and pleasingly different" products to enhance pricing power and market share [8][11] - Continued emphasis on value initiatives at Topgolf, including promotions like Sunday Funday and half-off golf, has driven traffic growth [12][13] - The company is committed to the separation of Topgolf and is actively evaluating strategic alternatives [18][40] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the strategic direction and raised full-year guidance based on strong Q3 performance and positive trends observed in October [4][18] - The company anticipates challenges from ongoing tariffs but is implementing cost management initiatives to mitigate impacts [11][23] - Management noted that consumer engagement in golf remains strong, with positive trends in both participation and sell-through [33][37] Other Important Information - The company experienced an incremental tariff expense of $12 million in Q3, with a forecast of approximately $40 million for the full year [10][20] - The company implemented a reduction in force of about 300 positions as part of cost management efforts [11] - New venues for Topgolf continue to open successfully, with four new venues planned for the year [17] Q&A Session Summary Question: Pricing power on golf equipment given strong demand - Management indicated that pricing power is dependent on product differentiation and will consider strategic pricing adjustments to mitigate tariff impacts [28][29] Question: Trends in Topgolf visitation and food and beverage sales - Management reported strong traffic growth and positive trends in food and beverage sales, driven by new offerings and increased visitation [30][31] Question: Sell-through trends and consumer behavior changes - Management noted strong sell-through trends, with higher engagement from consumers and a positive outlook for the upcoming product launches [32][33] Question: Visibility on corporate event bookings for Q4 - Management confirmed reasonable visibility on corporate event bookings, with over half booked 30 days out [44] Question: Update on CEO search and its impact on separation timing - Management stated that the CEO search is ongoing, and while timing for separation is uncertain, the existing team is performing well [48][49]

Business Overview - Lucky Strike operates 369 locations as of November 2025, well-positioned in attractive North American markets and expanding into Family Entertainment Centers (FECs) through the acquisition of Boomers[24] - The company's diversified portfolio includes bowling (46%), food & beverage (35%), and amusement & other (19%) revenue streams in FY25, mitigating seasonality and consumer discretionary spending risks[26] Financial Performance - Total Revenue increased by 4% from $1,154,614 thousand in FY24 to $1,201,333 thousand in FY25[55] - Same Store Revenue decreased by 3.7% from $1,029,251 thousand in FY24 to $990,678 thousand in FY25[55] - Adjusted EBITDA increased from $361,497 thousand in FY24 to $367,687 thousand in FY25, with margins of 31.3% and 30.6% respectively[59] - Adjusted Location EBITDA margin was 36% in Q1 FY25, 42% in Q2 FY25, 44% in Q3 FY25, and 40% in Q4 FY25[57] Strategic Initiatives - The company sold 260,000 summer passes in 2025, with members visiting 9 times per pass, driving loyalty and year-round revenue[18] - Lucky Strike plans to rebrand nearly 100 locations by the end of the year and complete the rebrand by the end of 2026[33] Acquisitions and Value Creation - Lucky Strike acquired AMF for $310 million in 2013, with Lucky Strike contributing $20 million of equity, resulting in an estimated value creation of $1.3-$1.5 billion[20] - The company acquired Brunswick locations in 2014 for $260 million and immediately entered into a Sale-Leaseback Transaction reducing purchase price to $60 million[20, 21] - The company deployed $700 million of capital into acquisitions in the past three years[21]

Core Insights - The Shanghai Grand Theatre has seen significant growth in the surrounding dining and entertainment sectors during the National Day holiday, with restaurant sales increasing by 15.9% year-on-year and 19.5% month-on-month, while leisure and entertainment sectors grew by 13.3% year-on-year and 17.1% month-on-month [1] Group 1: Performance and Attendance - The premiere of Wagner's "The Flying Dutchman" at the Shanghai Grand Theatre was a sold-out event, with an average ticket sales rate exceeding 90% across six performances during the holiday [1] - Many attendees traveled from cities like Beijing and Changsha, and some even flew in from abroad specifically to attend the performances [1] Group 2: Artistic Presentation - The Bavarian State Opera's production of "The Flying Dutchman" features a modern interpretation that contrasts historical and contemporary elements, with the first act resembling a dark Rembrandt painting and the second act set in a modern gym [3][4] - The production is directed by Peter Konwitschny and has been a milestone in Wagner's staging since its premiere in Munich over 20 years ago [2] Group 3: Technical Aspects - The stage setup for the production involved seven shipping containers and 70 hours of continuous work by 35 staff members, achieving scene changes in as little as 1 minute and 20 seconds [4] - The visual effects, including the use of gauze and lighting to create an oil painting texture, enhance the audience's experience of the performance [4]

Core Insights - The "Su Super" league has significantly boosted local consumption in Jiangsu Province, with a notable increase in offline consumer enthusiasm during the tournament period [1][3][5] Group 1: Tournament Impact - Eight teams advanced to the quarter-finals of the "Su Super" league, generating excitement and engagement among local fans [1] - The league has led to a 23% year-on-year increase in Douyin group purchase orders and a 66% increase in sales from May 10 to September 15 [1] - Cities like Wuxi, Changzhou, and Suqian have seen particularly strong growth in group purchase consumption [1] Group 2: Tourism and Hospitality - Hotel accommodation orders in Jiangsu Province increased by 55% on Douyin during the same period, driven by visitors traveling to watch the matches [3] - Popular tourist attractions such as Nanjing Niushoushan Cultural Tourism Area and Changzhou China Dinosaur Park have gained significant attention [3] - Various promotional activities, including free entry on match weekends and special tickets, have been implemented to attract tourists [3] Group 3: Food and Beverage Sector - The tournament has also highlighted local culinary offerings, with a 49% increase in Douyin group purchase orders for Jiangsu's intangible cultural heritage cuisine and a 209% increase in sales [3] - Influencers and local personalities have promoted regional dishes, further enhancing the visibility of Jiangsu's food culture [3][5] Group 4: Entertainment and Leisure - There has been a 40% increase in Douyin group purchase orders for leisure and entertainment services, with sales rising by 122% [5] - The demand for sportswear has surged, with a 113% increase in orders and a 155% increase in sales for sports and leisure apparel [5]

Core Insights - The entertainment preferences of consumers in China are shifting from occasional experiences to daily leisure activities, indicating a transformation in lifestyle choices [1] - New consumer demands are driving the emergence of innovative business models in urban leisure, characterized by a blend of immersive, complex, and online experiences [1] - The trend of Hong Kong residents traveling to mainland China for leisure activities is becoming a significant aspect of the integration within the Greater Bay Area [1] Group 1: Consumer Behavior - Hong Kong tourists are increasingly seeking leisure activities that provide emotional value and relaxation, moving away from traditional shopping habits [1] - The "must-visit list" has become a key tool for Hong Kong visitors to explore leisure options in mainland China [1] - A notable 40% of visitors to PARTYDAY in Shenzhen are from Hong Kong, with a high rate of repeat customers [2] Group 2: Business Models - The汤崎 brand focuses on creating a relaxing urban destination by combining bathing, spa, and entertainment services, operating 24/7 [2] - PARTYDAY integrates sports, entertainment, and technology, offering a cost-effective experience with multiple attractions and social activities [2] - The digital service enhancements at PARTYDAY, such as the "Adventure Island" mini-program, allow for real-time score tracking and engagement [3] Group 3: Economic Impact - In 2024, it is projected that 81.91 million Hong Kong residents will travel to mainland China, representing a year-on-year increase of over 50% [3] - The estimated total spending by these travelers is approximately HKD 55.7 billion, an increase of nearly HKD 20 billion compared to 2023 [3] - The spending patterns of Hong Kong visitors show that over 80% of their expenditures in mainland China are on lifestyle services, with retail accounting for 28% [4] Group 4: Cross-Border Consumption - The cross-border consumption trend is not displacing spending in Hong Kong but is creating a complementary consumption pattern [4] - The "weekend economy" driven by Hong Kong visitors is significantly boosting local service consumption and enhancing brand standards in mainland cities [4] - Factors such as price differences, exchange rates, and the development of infrastructure in the Greater Bay Area are supporting this trend [4]

Core Insights - The "romantic economy" is driving significant growth in offline consumption during the Qixi Festival, with diverse and youthful trends emerging in consumer behavior [1][2][3] Group 1: Consumption Trends - From August 16 to August 25, sales of beauty and personal care, jewelry, and clothing categories on Douyin's group buying platform saw year-on-year increases exceeding 200% [1] - The proportion of consumers aged 25 and under (post-95 generation) making purchases on Douyin's life services exceeded 40% [1] - The demand for quality experiences is rising, with concert and music festival orders increasing by 142% and 127% year-on-year, respectively [1] Group 2: Dining and Gifts - The number of group purchases for couple meals increased by 72% compared to the same period last year, with major cities like Beijing, Zhengzhou, and Shenzhen leading in sales [2] - Jewelry sales saw a remarkable year-on-year increase of 255%, with brands leveraging live streaming and special promotions to attract consumers [2] Group 3: Market Opportunities - Smaller cities are showing significant growth in romantic consumption, with cities like Kaifeng and Jingdezhen reporting sales increases of 284% and over 147%, respectively [2] - Douyin's life services are focused on optimizing content supply and group buying options to enhance consumer engagement and drive offline economic growth [3]

Group 1 - The "romantic economy" is driving significant growth in offline consumption, particularly in the lead-up to the Qixi Festival, with a notable increase in diverse and youthful spending trends [1][2] - From August 16 to August 25, sales of beauty and personal care, jewelry, and clothing categories saw over 200% year-on-year growth in group buying orders [1][2] - The demand for quality experiences is rising, with concert and music festival group buying orders increasing by 142% and 127% year-on-year, respectively [2] Group 2 - Smaller cities are showing strong potential in romantic consumption, with cities like Kaifeng and Jingdezhen reporting sales growth in accommodation and dining orders of 284% and over 100% respectively [3] - The demographic of consumers making purchases for Qixi is predominantly young, with over 40% of orders coming from individuals born after 1995 [3] Group 3 - Jewelry group buying sales surged by 255% leading up to Qixi, with brands leveraging live streaming and collaborations to attract new consumer segments [4] - Notable jewelry brands have launched new products and marketing strategies, achieving significant sales milestones, such as Zhou Dazheng's live streaming event generating over 11 million in GMV [4] - The trend of integrating brand IP concepts into new product offerings is gaining traction, with various brands successfully engaging younger consumers through innovative marketing approaches [4]

Core Viewpoint - The China Hong Kong Stock Connect Pan Leisure and Entertainment Index closed at 4085.86 points on August 19, marking an increase of 20.13 points, or 0.5% [1] Group 1: Index Performance - The index reached a daily high of 4091.62 points and a low of 4029.21 points [1] - The index was launched on July 16, 2018, with a base value of 2000 points and consists of 30 constituent stocks [1] Group 2: Index Composition - The index includes stocks listed on the Hong Kong main board that are eligible for the Hong Kong Stock Connect, primarily focusing on companies engaged in the leisure and entertainment industry [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Chengdu World University Games serves as a significant catalyst for boosting the local cultural and tourism consumption, enhancing the overall consumer experience through collaboration among government, financial institutions, and platform enterprises [3][7]. Group 1: Economic Impact - Chengdu's aviation port recorded over 3.58 million inbound and outbound passengers by the end of July, marking a year-on-year increase of 13.21% [5]. - The city ranks highly as a domestic travel destination during the summer peak, driven by the World University Games [5]. - The introduction of the "ticket root economy" integrates various consumption resources across events, performances, exhibitions, and tourist attractions [5]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - The local dining sector, particularly hot pot, has seen a significant increase in transaction volume, with overall restaurant payment transactions rising nearly 60% year-on-year, and hot pot transactions increasing by 52.7% [6]. - New leisure consumption scenarios have emerged during event intermissions, with foot massage services' gross merchandise volume (GMV) surging by 78.9% [6]. Group 3: Collaborative Efforts - The Chengdu Cultural and Tourism Bureau launched a 10 million yuan tourism accommodation voucher program, collaborating with major platforms to provide additional subsidies and promotional activities [7]. - Financial institutions, such as the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Chengdu branch, have enhanced payment convenience for foreign tourists by offering services like quick cash exchange [7][8]. - The integration of consumer vouchers, payment methods, and promotional rights has created a seamless experience for visitors, showcasing the hospitality of Chengdu [8].