宏观专题 消费补贴和信贷贴息如何推动扩内 需？——挖掘经济潜能系列二 2026 年 02 月 27 日 【宏观观点】 【风险提示】 挖掘价值 投资成长 东方财富证券研究所 证券分析师：王笑笑 证书编号：S1160525020006 证券分析师：陈然 证书编号：S1160524060002 相关研究 《"双碳"政策有望提力加速》 2026.02.25 《地方两会系列（一）——经济增长目标》 2026.02.13 2026.01.05 宏 观 研 究 / 宏 观 专 题 / 证 券 研 究 报 告 2025 年，补贴对经济的贡献加大，"两新""两重"等政策支撑消费和 投资稳步修复。一方面，消费补贴和供给优化协同发力，补贴类商品 增速保持高位。另一方面，"财政补贴+税收信贷优惠"对投资的影响 较大，设备更新、高技术服务、政策托底基建等重点领域投资较快增 长。 2026 年，扩内需政策持续优化，消费补贴和投资贴息或仍是年内核心 举措。"两新"政策的优化支持范围、补贴标准、实施机制，突出对中 小企业、绿色转型、新技术新产品新场景的支持。降低结构性货币政 策工具利率，同时对中小微民营、制造业设备更新、服务业贷款进行 贴息 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights a significant growth in cultural and tourism consumption, with revenue from artistic creation and performance sales increasing by 17.3% year-on-year [2] - The innovation in immersive and scenario-based business models has led to an upgrade in cultural tourism consumption, with travel agency and related services, scenic spots, and leisure sightseeing activities seeing revenue growth of 11.2%, 26.1%, and 14.6% respectively [3] - Digital empowerment is driving new consumption patterns, with internet life service platforms and food delivery sales increasing by 9.4% and 13.3% respectively, indicating a robust development in various life service industries [5] Group 2 - Health-related consumption is becoming a new hotspot, with sales in sports exhibition services and sports consulting services growing by 12.2% and 27.8% respectively, alongside a general increase in health management and wellness services [7] - The demand for elderly care, social assistance, and nursing home services has seen substantial growth, with increases of 24.9%, 23.1%, and 15.4% respectively, reflecting a societal shift towards improved childcare service systems [10] - The expansion of tax refund policies for outbound travelers has significantly boosted inbound consumption, with the number of travelers processing tax refunds increasing by 305% and the sales of tax refund goods rising by 95.9% year-on-year [11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the positive trends in China's consumption market in 2025, driven by various policies and consumer demand across multiple sectors [2][4][5] - The home appliance sector shows significant growth, with retail sales of refrigerators, gas stoves, and mobile phones increasing by 17.4%, 12.9%, and 18.6% year-on-year respectively [2] - The sales of new energy vehicles also demonstrate strong performance, with a year-on-year increase of 24.3% in unit sales and 21.1% in sales revenue [2] Group 2 - The integration of culture and tourism has revitalized consumer spending, with sales in cultural performances increasing by 17.3% and travel-related services seeing growth of 11.2% [2] - Digital empowerment is driving new consumption patterns, with internet service platforms and food delivery services growing by 9.4% and 13.3% respectively [3] - The digital cultural sector, particularly gaming and animation, shows potential with a 16.6% increase in sales revenue [3] Group 3 - The sports and health industries are experiencing robust demand, with sports exhibition services and consulting services growing by 12.2% and 27.8% respectively [3] - The aging population is contributing to increased spending in elder care services, with growth rates of 24.9% for elder care and 23.1% for social assistance services [3] - Childcare services are also expanding, with a 5.4% increase in sales revenue for nursery services [3] Group 4 - The expansion of tax refund policies for outbound tourists has significantly boosted inbound consumption, with a 305% increase in the number of tourists claiming refunds and a 95.9% increase in sales of refund-eligible goods [4] - The implementation of new tax refund policies has improved the shopping experience for inbound tourists, enhancing the overall consumption potential [4] - The diverse highlights of the consumption market in 2025 reflect the effectiveness of targeted government policies aimed at stimulating consumer spending [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the diverse growth in China's consumption market by 2025, driven by various government policies aimed at stimulating consumer demand [4] Group 2 - The retail sales revenue for daily household appliances, kitchenware, and communication devices is projected to grow by 17.4%, 12.9%, and 18.6% respectively in 2025 [1] - The sales volume and revenue of new energy passenger vehicles are expected to increase by 24.3% and 21.1% respectively in 2025 [1] - The sales revenue for cultural and tourism services is anticipated to rise, with artistic performances increasing by 17.3%, travel agency services by 11.2%, scenic spots by 26.1%, and leisure activities by 14.6% [1] - Internet life service platforms and food delivery services are projected to see sales revenue growth of 9.4% and 13.3% respectively, while digital cultural services are expected to grow by 16.6% [1] Group 3 - The sports and health industry is experiencing strong consumer demand, with sports exhibition services and consulting services expected to grow by 12.2% and 27.8% respectively [2] - Health-related services, including health consulting and wellness services, are projected to grow by 11.7%, 12%, and 16.5% respectively [2] Group 4 - The aging population is driving demand for elderly care services, with growth rates of 24.9%, 23.1%, and 15.4% for elderly care, social assistance, and nursing home services respectively [2] - Childcare services are also expected to grow, with nursery services projected to increase by 5.4% [2] Group 5 - The expansion of the departure tax refund system is enhancing inbound consumption, with the number of travelers benefiting from tax refunds increasing by 305% and the sales of tax refund goods rising by 95.9% [3] - The number of tax refund stores has reached 12,930, with over 7,000 offering "buy and refund" services [3] - Cross-province recognition of tax refund services is being implemented, promoting greater international consumer resource flow and regional economic collaboration [3]

Group 1: Consumer Market Trends - In 2025, China's consumer market is expected to showcase new highlights, with significant demand in home appliances, mobile phones, and new energy vehicles, driven by targeted policies [1] - Retail sales for daily appliances like refrigerators, kitchenware, and communication devices are projected to grow by 17.4%, 12.9%, and 18.6% year-on-year, respectively [1] - New energy vehicle sales are anticipated to increase by 24.3% in volume and 21.1% in revenue [1] Group 2: Cultural and Tourism Consumption - The integration of culture and tourism is expected to ignite new consumer vitality, with sales in artistic creation and performance projected to rise by 17.3% [2] - Revenue from travel agencies and related services, scenic spots, and leisure activities is expected to grow by 11.2%, 26.1%, and 14.6% year-on-year, respectively [2] Group 3: Digital and Health Consumption - Digital empowerment through technologies like AI and VR is driving new consumption patterns, with internet life service platforms and food delivery sales expected to grow by 9.4% and 13.3% [2] - The sports and health industry is seeing strong demand, with revenue from sports exhibition services and consulting services projected to increase by 12.2% and 27.8% [2] Group 4: Elderly and Childcare Services - The aging population is driving demand for elderly care services, with spending on elderly care, social assistance, and nursing home services expected to grow by 24.9%, 23.1%, and 15.4% [2] - Childcare services are also expanding, with nursery service revenue projected to increase by 5.4% [2] Group 5: Tax Refund Policies and Inbound Consumption - The expansion of tax refund policies is enhancing inbound consumption, with the number of foreign travelers claiming tax refunds expected to increase by 305% and sales of tax refund goods by 95.9% [3] - New regions are implementing tax refund policies, with over 12,930 stores participating, including more than 7,000 offering "buy and refund" services [3] Group 6: Overall Economic Impact - The diverse highlights of the 2025 consumer market reflect the effectiveness of targeted consumption stimulus policies, promoting quality and diversified consumption, which supports high-quality economic development [4]

Core Insights - The National Taxation Administration of China reports that by 2025, the consumer market will showcase new highlights driven by targeted policies, with significant demand in home appliances, smartphones, and new energy vehicles [1][4] - The "old-for-new" policy has effectively stimulated mass consumption, particularly in the new energy vehicle sector, which has seen both sales volume and revenue growth [1][3] Group 1: Consumer Trends - Home appliance consumption is on the rise, with retail sales of refrigerators, gas stoves, and smartphones increasing by 17.4%, 12.9%, and 18.6% year-on-year, respectively [1] - New energy vehicle sales and revenue are projected to grow by 24.3% and 21.1% year-on-year in 2025, reflecting a shift towards green consumption [1][3] Group 2: Digital Empowerment - The integration of technologies like AI and VR into daily life is enhancing diverse consumer needs, with internet service platforms and food delivery services seeing revenue growth of 9.4% and 13.3% year-on-year, respectively [2] - Digital cultural services, including gaming and animation, are expected to grow by 16.6% year-on-year, indicating a robust potential in this sector [2] Group 3: Cultural and Sports Consumption - The cultural tourism sector is experiencing revitalization, with revenue from artistic performances increasing by 17.3% year-on-year, and travel-related services seeing growth of 11.2% to 26.1% [2][3] - The sports and health industry is also thriving, with sports exhibition services and health management services growing by 12.2% and 16.5% year-on-year, respectively [3] Group 4: Senior and Childcare Services - The aging population is driving demand for elder care services, with revenue from elder care and related services increasing by 24.9% and 23.1% year-on-year [3] - Childcare services are also expanding, with nursery services seeing a year-on-year growth of 5.4% [3] Group 5: Inbound Consumption - The implementation of measures to enhance the outbound tax refund process has led to a 305% increase in the number of foreign travelers claiming refunds, with sales of tax refund goods rising by 95.9% [4] - The number of stores offering tax refund services has reached 12,930, with over 7,000 providing "buy and refund" services [4]

Group 1 - The consumption market in China is showing significant growth in 2025, driven by various policies that effectively release consumer demand [1][4] - The number of outbound travelers applying for tax refunds increased by 305% year-on-year, indicating a strong recovery in international travel [1][4] - Sales revenue from tax refund goods surged by 95.9%, while the total tax refund amount also rose by 95.8%, reflecting robust consumer spending [1][4] Group 2 - The retail sector experienced notable growth, with sales revenue increasing by 17.4% for mobile communication devices, 12.9% for home appliances, and 18.6% for kitchenware [1] - The sales revenue for new energy passenger vehicles grew by 24.3%, with a 21.1% increase in sales volume, highlighting a shift towards sustainable transportation [1] - The cultural and tourism sectors are revitalizing consumption, with sales revenue from cultural performances rising by 17.3% and travel-related services increasing by 11.2% [2]

Core Insights - The National Taxation Administration of China indicates that by 2025, the consumer market will exhibit new highlights driven by various policies, with significant demand in home appliances, smartphones, and new energy vehicles [1][2][4] Group 1: Consumer Trends - Home appliance consumption is expected to grow, with retail sales of refrigerators, kitchen appliances, and smartphones increasing by 17.4%, 12.9%, and 18.6% year-on-year respectively in 2025 [1] - New energy vehicle sales are projected to rise, with a year-on-year increase of 24.3% in volume and 21.1% in sales revenue [1] - The "old-for-new" policy has effectively stimulated large-scale consumer demand, aligning with the green consumption trend and promoting the automotive industry's transition to new energy [1] Group 2: Digital Empowerment - Digital technologies such as AI and VR are reshaping consumer behavior, leading to a year-on-year increase of 9.4% and 13.3% in internet life service platforms and food delivery sales respectively in 2025 [2] - The digital cultural consumption sector, represented by gaming and animation, is also showing potential, with a projected year-on-year sales growth of 16.6% [2] - The integration of online and offline services is becoming the norm, significantly enhancing the consumption ecosystem [2] Group 3: Cultural and Sports Consumption - The cultural tourism sector is experiencing revitalization, with sales in artistic performances increasing by 17.3% year-on-year, and related services such as travel agencies and scenic spots seeing growth of 11.2% and 26.1% respectively [2] - The sports and health industry is thriving, with sports exhibition services and consulting services growing by 12.2% and 27.8% year-on-year [3] - Health-related services are emerging as new consumer hotspots, with health consultation and wellness services increasing by 11.7%, 12%, and 16.5% respectively [3] Group 4: Senior and Youth Consumption - The aging population is driving demand for senior care services, with expenditures on elderly care and related services increasing by 24.9%, 23.1%, and 15.4% year-on-year [3] - The development of childcare services is also on the rise, with a year-on-year growth of 5.4% in nursery services [3] Group 5: Inbound Consumption - The expansion of tax refund policies for outbound tourists has significantly boosted inbound consumption, with the number of tourists benefiting from tax refunds increasing by 305% and the sales of tax refund goods rising by 95.9% [4] - The implementation of new tax refund policies has optimized the shopping experience for inbound tourists, with over 12,930 stores participating in the program [4] - The diverse highlights of the consumer market in 2025 reflect the effectiveness of targeted consumption stimulus policies [4]

Core Insights - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session emphasizes the need to boost consumption and implement targeted actions to invigorate the consumer market by 2025, highlighting significant growth in various sectors such as home appliances, mobile phones, and new energy vehicles [1][3]. Group 1: Consumer Demand Trends - The "trade-in" policy is stimulating consumer demand, with retail sales of home appliances like refrigerators, kitchenware, and mobile devices showing year-on-year increases of 17.4%, 12.9%, and 18.6% respectively [1] - New energy vehicle sales are also on the rise, with a 24.3% increase in unit sales and a 21.1% increase in sales revenue in 2025 [1]. Group 2: Cultural and Tourism Consumption - The integration of culture and tourism is igniting new consumer vitality, with sales in cultural creation and performance increasing by 17.3% year-on-year, and related services such as travel agencies and scenic spots seeing growth rates of 11.2%, 26.1%, and 14.6% respectively [2]. Group 3: Digital Empowerment in Consumption - The incorporation of technologies like AI and VR is driving new consumption patterns, with internet life service platforms and food delivery services experiencing year-on-year sales growth of 9.4% and 13.3% respectively [2]. - Digital cultural services, particularly in gaming and animation, are also showing potential, with a 16.6% increase in sales revenue [2]. Group 4: Health and Sports Consumption - The sports and health industries are witnessing robust demand, with sales in sports exhibition services and consulting services growing by 12.2% and 27.8% respectively [2]. - Health-related services, including health management and wellness, are emerging as new consumer hotspots, with sales increasing by 11.7%, 12%, and 16.5% respectively [2]. Group 5: Elderly and Child Consumption - The growing elderly population is driving demand for elder care services, with spending on elder care, social assistance, and nursing home services increasing by 24.9%, 23.1%, and 15.4% respectively [2]. - The development of childcare services is also progressing, with nursery service sales rising by 5.4% [2]. Group 6: Inbound Consumption and Tax Refunds - The expansion of tax refund policies for outbound travelers is enhancing inbound consumption, with the number of travelers benefiting from tax refunds increasing by 305% and the sales of tax refund goods rising by 95.9% [3]. - The implementation of new tax refund policies has led to the establishment of 12,930 tax refund stores across several regions, with over 7,000 offering "buy and refund" services [3].

Group 1: Consumer Market Insights - The National Taxation Administration of China reports a significant increase in consumer demand for 2025, driven by targeted policies, with the number of outbound travelers receiving tax refunds increasing by 305% year-on-year [1] - Sales revenue from tax refund goods has risen by 95.9%, and the total tax refund amount has increased by 95.8% [1] - The "trade-in" policy has stimulated consumer demand, with retail sales in daily household appliances, kitchenware, and communication devices growing by 17.4%, 12.9%, and 18.6% respectively [1] Group 2: New Consumption Trends - The sales revenue of new energy passenger vehicles has increased by 24.3% in volume and 21.1% in revenue [1] - The integration of culture and tourism has enhanced consumer vitality, with sales in cultural performances growing by 17.3%, and travel-related services seeing increases of 11.2% for travel agencies and 26.1% for scenic spots [1] - Digital empowerment is driving new consumption, with internet life service platforms and food delivery services growing by 9.4% and 13.3% respectively, while digital cultural services have seen a 16.6% increase in sales revenue [1] Group 3: Health and Sports Consumption - The sports health industry is experiencing robust demand, with sales in sports exhibition services and consulting services increasing by 12.2% and 27.8% respectively [2] - Health consulting, wellness, and sports health services have also seen growth, with revenues rising by 11.7%, 12%, and 16.5% respectively [2] Group 4: Senior Consumer Market - There is a notable increase in consumption related to the elderly, with spending on elder care, social assistance, and nursing home services growing by 24.9%, 23.1%, and 15.4% respectively [2]