来源：第一财经 恒指报26815.69点，涨1.78%，恒生科技指数报5868.24点，涨2.21%，黄金及贵金属、一般金属及矿 石、其他金融板块领涨，消费者主要零售商、信息科技器材、工用支援板块领跌。（AI生成） ...

险资增量资金入市可期，近期《关于调整保险公司相关业务风险因子的通知》发布，对长期投资的股票风险因子进行下调： 1）持仓时间（根据过去六年加权平均持仓时间确定）超过三年的沪深300、中证红利低波动100指数成分股的风险因子从0.3下调至0.27； 2）持仓时间（根据过去四年加权平均持仓时间确定）超过两年的科创板上市普通股的风险因子从0.4下调至0.36。 西部证券指出，险资股票风险因子松绑，新规利好银行、公用事业、煤炭等红利板块。伴随新会计准则即将全面落地，中小险企或将加强OCI 股票配置，风险因子松绑下，红利板块有望充分受益。 具体来看，对比港股、A股同类指数，恒生港股通高股息低波动指数股息率相对更高，市盈率、市净率相对更低。按市值加权，A股红利板块 溢价从2025年年初的49.9%下降至12月1日的32.4%，考虑20%的税率，目前港股红利板块比A股整体便宜5-6%。 港股红利低波ETF（520550）跟踪恒生港股通高股息低波动指数，全市场费率最低（综合费率0.2%），持仓结构上，金融、能源、公用事业等 成熟行业构筑安全垫，同时通过单一个股5%的权重上限实现风险分散，剔除阶段跌幅过大的股票规避"股息率陷阱" ...

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market showed a rebound in sentiment, with the Hang Seng Technology Index rising by 1.45% to above 5600 points, while the Hang Seng Index increased by 0.68% to 25935 points, and the National Enterprises Index rose by 0.86% to 9106 points [1][2]. Sector Performance - Large technology stocks collectively rose, with notable gains from Xiaomi (over 4%) and Meituan (over 2%). The pharmaceutical sector saw a surge in orders for flu medications, with some stocks in this category performing strongly [2][4]. - The semiconductor sector was active, with companies like Cambrian increasing chip production by three times, leading to a rise in semiconductor stocks [2][9]. - The biopharmaceutical sector experienced significant gains, with WuXi AppTec rising over 9% and other related stocks also showing strong performance due to increased demand for flu medications [6][8]. - The automotive, real estate, and pharmaceutical sectors showed positive movements, while the restaurant and gaming sectors faced declines [3][13][15]. Notable Stocks - Horizon Robotics saw a rise of over 6%, while Xiaomi and Trip.com also reported gains of over 4% and 3%, respectively [4][5]. - In the biopharmaceutical space, WuXi AppTec and other related stocks saw increases of over 8% [6]. - The robotics sector was strong, with companies like CloudMinds and others showing significant gains [7][8]. - The entertainment sector also saw some upward movement, with Lemon Films rising over 5% [11][12]. Capital Flows - Southbound funds recorded a net inflow of 1.48 billion HKD, indicating positive investor sentiment towards Hong Kong stocks [19]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the Hong Kong stock market may experience fluctuations in the coming months, with the Hang Seng Index expected to range between 23500 and 30500 points in 2026. Recommendations include buying on dips and focusing on sectors such as technology, high-end manufacturing, and renewable energy [21].

- The report discusses the construction of two quantitative models for Hong Kong stock market sector rotation based on southbound capital flows: one adjusted by sector market capitalization and another adjusted by the three-year percentile of sector market capitalization preferences of southbound capital[20][22] - The first model, adjusted by sector market capitalization, aims to capture the recent preferences of southbound capital by normalizing the net inflow of capital into each sector relative to its market capitalization[20] - The second model, adjusted by the three-year percentile of sector market capitalization preferences, seeks to identify long-term trends in sector preferences by calculating the historical percentile rank of capital inflows into each sector over the past three years[20] - Both models are tested against the Hang Seng Index and equal-weighted sector portfolios, demonstrating the ability to generate excess returns[22]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index closed down 0.34% at 25,858.89 points on November 28, with Ding Shi Capital (00804.HK) rising 13.51% to HKD 2.94 per share, with a trading volume of 40,000 shares and a turnover of HKD 108,700, showing a volatility of 22.78% [1] - Over the past month, Ding Shi Capital has seen a cumulative decline of 49.81%, while year-to-date, it has increased by 11.54%, underperforming the Hang Seng Index by 29.34% [1] - As of June 30, 2025, Ding Shi Capital reported total revenue of HKD 15.85 million, a year-on-year increase of 61.43%, but a net profit attributable to shareholders of -HKD 3.36 million, a decrease of 357.07%, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 3.91% [1] Group 2 - Ding Shi Capital Limited is a financial services institution based in Hong Kong, providing customized services to individual and corporate clients [2] - The company's main business includes (i) securities brokerage; (ii) securities margin financing; and (iii) placement and underwriting [2] - Through its main operating subsidiary, Ding Shi Securities Limited ("PSL"), the company is licensed to conduct regulated activities under the Securities and Futures Ordinance in Hong Kong, including brokerage services and margin financing [2]

Group 1: Dividend Announcements - Wanbo Group announced a dividend of HKD 0.0025 per share, with an ex-dividend date of December 8, 2025, and a payment date of December 23, 2025 [1] - Hong Kong Credit declared a dividend of HKD 0.016 per share, with an ex-dividend date of December 30, 2025, and a payment date of January 14, 2026 [1] - HYPEBEAST announced an interim dividend of HKD 0.0018 per share and a special dividend of HKD 0.0029 per share, with an ex-dividend date of December 9, 2025, and a payment date of December 23, 2025 [1] - Aji Bang Leasing declared a dividend of HKD 0.0023 per share, with an ex-dividend date of December 9, 2025, and a payment date of December 24, 2025 [1] Group 2: Additional Dividend Announcements - Haode Holdings announced a dividend of HKD 0.0008 per share, with an ex-dividend date of December 18, 2025, and a payment date of January 22, 2026 [2] - Kwan Chung Bus Group declared an interim dividend of HKD 0.04 per share and a special dividend of HKD 0.06 per share, with an ex-dividend date of December 8, 2025, and a payment date of December 19, 2025 [2] - Xinjia International announced a dividend of HKD 0.04 per share, with an ex-dividend date of December 10, 2025, and a payment date of December 23, 2025 [2] - Fujikou Industrial declared a dividend of HKD 0.01 per share, with an ex-dividend date of December 9, 2025, and a payment date of December 31, 2025 [2] Group 3: Further Dividend Announcements - Jiali International announced a dividend of HKD 0.015 per share, with an ex-dividend date of December 11, 2025, and a payment date of December 31, 2025 [3] - China Dongxiang declared an interim dividend of HKD 0.0114 per share and a special dividend of HKD 0.0114 per share, with an ex-dividend date of December 8, 2025, and a payment date of December 23, 2025 [3] - Note: The ex-dividend date indicates when a stock begins to be traded without the right to receive the upcoming dividend [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [2][10]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of HKD 1.215 billion in Q1-Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 30%. The gross profit reached HKD 551 million, up 28% year-on-year, driven by efficient operations of new projects like the Xi'an Xianyang International Airport T5 terminal parking lot and improved performance of existing projects [2]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for Q1-Q3 2025 was HKD 488 million, reflecting a 22% increase year-on-year, showcasing a significant improvement in overall profitability and a solid foundation for long-term performance [2]. - The company is accelerating its investment in the humanoid robotics sector, having established multiple industry funds that have invested in key enterprises across the robotics value chain. This includes the establishment of the "Shou Cheng Robot Advanced Materials Industry Co., Ltd." to invest in critical materials for robotics [3][4]. - The company has launched the first nationwide operational robotics technology experience store, enhancing its market presence and consumer engagement in the robotics sector [3]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue projections for 2025-2027 are HKD 1.559 billion, HKD 1.959 billion, and HKD 2.319 billion, respectively, with corresponding net profits of HKD 586 million, HKD 775 million, and HKD 934 million [10]. - The gross margin for Q1-Q3 2025 was 45.35%, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.57 percentage points, indicating stable profitability [3]. - The debt-to-capital ratio decreased to 10.9% in Q1-Q3 2025, down 5 percentage points from the end of 2024, reflecting improved financial stability [3][4].

Core Viewpoint - The surge in the stock price of Xinda International Holdings is linked to the major merger involving CICC, Xinda Securities, and Dongxing Securities, indicating a significant consolidation trend in the brokerage industry [1][3]. Group 1: Merger Details - On November 19, CICC, Dongxing Securities, and Xinda Securities announced a major asset restructuring, leading to a suspension of trading [1][3]. - The merger involves CICC absorbing Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities through a share exchange agreement, marking a significant move in the brokerage sector [3][5]. Group 2: Industry Context - This merger is the first of its kind in the brokerage industry, reflecting a broader trend of consolidation as major brokerages aim to strengthen their market positions [5][6]. - The integration of these three brokerages is part of a larger strategy by the Central Huijin Investment to enhance the capabilities of its financial institutions, following its acquisition of three asset management companies earlier in the year [5][6]. Group 3: Strategic Implications - Each of the three brokerages brings unique strengths: CICC excels in investment banking and wealth management, Dongxing Securities has advantages in asset management, and Xinda Securities is strong in mergers and acquisitions [5][6]. - The merger is expected to enhance CICC's market reach, particularly in regions where Xinda and Dongxing have established networks, thereby expanding its operational footprint [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (388) with a target price raised to HKD 550.0, indicating a potential upside of 28% from the previous closing price [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the first nine months of 2025, with revenue reaching HKD 21.9 billion (up 37% year-on-year) and net profit at HKD 13.4 billion (up 45% year-on-year) [3][4]. - The report highlights strong market activity, particularly in the cash market, with average daily trading volume doubling to HKD 256.4 billion (up 126% year-on-year) [3][4]. - The IPO market remains robust, with HKD 188.3 billion raised from 69 new listings, marking a threefold increase compared to the same period in 2024 [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first nine months of 2025, the company achieved an EBITDA of HKD 17.2 billion, reflecting a 48% year-on-year increase, with an EBITDA margin of 79% (up 5 percentage points) [3]. - The report projects total revenue of HKD 28.1 billion for 2025, representing a 25.4% increase, and net profit of HKD 16.4 billion, a 26% increase [7]. - The diluted earnings per share are expected to rise to HKD 13.0 in 2025, with a projected dividend of HKD 11.6, resulting in a dividend yield of 2.7% [7]. Market and Strategic Developments - The report notes the successful diversification strategy of the company, with average daily contracts in the derivatives market increasing by 11% to 1.7 million contracts [4]. - The company continues to enhance its market structure, including lowering minimum tick sizes and exploring shorter settlement cycles, which are expected to improve market efficiency and product diversity [5]. - The report emphasizes the strong correlation between the company's performance and market trading volumes, suggesting that the company is well-positioned to benefit from ongoing market trends [5].

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Sangao Holdings (00412.HK) has plummeted by 16.23% to HKD 3.87 per share, marking a cumulative decline of approximately 78% since September, indicating a severe downturn in performance [2][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of October 9, Sangao Holdings' stock price reached HKD 3.87, down 16.23% [2]. - The stock has experienced a dramatic drop of 76.02% in a single day on September 19, closing at HKD 3.36, erasing previous gains [3]. - Following a brief recovery due to a buyback plan, the stock has again fallen to HKD 3.87, resulting in a 40% decline from its yearly high [3]. Group 2: Regulatory Issues - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) flagged Sangao Holdings for "highly concentrated shareholding," revealing that over 90% of its issued shares are held by a small number of shareholders [3]. - On October 8, the Hang Seng Index Company announced that Sangao Holdings would be removed from the Hang Seng Composite Index and 10 other indices due to its failure to meet inclusion standards, effective October 24 [4]. - The removal from these indices is expected to negatively impact the company's reputation and could lead to forced sell-offs by funds tracking these indices, further exacerbating the stock's volatility [4].