Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The core pricing lines of the global market in 2026 are as follows: Overseas, the "Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD)" balance between the US and Iran restricts the escalation of the conflict, but the secondary inflation risk from oil prices is reversing the global liquidity expectations, and the Fed's policy path is becoming more divergent. Domestically, Chinese assets have a triple safety premium, but the A-share market is still in a risk release stage. The core investment strategy in 2026 is "defense and counterattack" [2]. Summary by Directory Financial Futures - **Macro**: News drives the market. Fed officials have different views on interest rate hikes and cuts. The situation in the US - Iran conflict is complex, with Trump claiming progress in negotiations while Iran denying it [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: Trump's claim of progress in US - Iran dialogue led to a drop in the US dollar index, and the RMB appreciated against the US dollar. Short - term export enterprises can lock in forward exchange settlement, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling foreign exchange purchase strategy [3]. - **Stock Index**: The A - share market fell due to liquidity shocks and geopolitical uncertainties. With the easing signal of the Middle East situation, the stock index may rebound, but the trend is unclear, so it is recommended to wait and see [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: After the sharp fall of the A - share market, the bond market may rebound. It is recommended to use grid operations, sell high - position long orders in a timely manner, and gradually build long positions if the price continues to fall [6]. - **Container Shipping (Europe Line)**: The futures market is in a high - level volatile state, with a game between geopolitical emotions and the off - season fundamentals. It is expected to maintain a high - level wide - range shock in the short term [7][9][10]. Commodities New Energy - **Lithium Carbonate**: It fluctuates sharply in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see. In the medium and long term, the demand for lithium carbonate in downstream industries still has a strong support [12][13]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: It is affected by the callback cycle of the non - ferrous metal sector. In the long run, the demand for these two products will improve as the photovoltaic industry develops [14][15]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: After a sharp fall, the copper price rebounded. It is recommended to pay attention to the upper pressure when the price rebounds. If it fails to break through with heavy volume, the market may be volatile [17][18][19]. - **Zinc**: It was affected by systematic risks and rebounded slightly at night. It is expected to be weak in the short term due to inventory and macro factors [20]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: The prices of nickel and stainless steel showed certain resilience. The supply of sulfur in the nickel industry chain is affected by the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, and there is a game between supply and macro - level factors [21][22]. - **Tin**: It followed the sector down and rebounded at night. It is expected to be weak in the short term and the long - term center of gravity may move upward [23]. - **Lead**: It oscillated and adjusted. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory operation under the pressure of inventory accumulation and cost support [24]. Oils and Fats & Feed - **Oilseeds**: The relaxation of Brazil's quarantine process affected the market. It is recommended to enter the market for reverse arbitrage between monthly spreads [25][26]. - **Oils**: The prices of oils fluctuated with crude oil. It is necessary to focus on the biofuel policies of Indonesia and the US this week [27]. Energy and Oil & Gas - **SC Crude Oil**: The crude oil price dropped sharply due to Trump's remarks. The negotiation situation is uncertain, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate between $80 - 120 [29][30][31]. - **Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur fuel oil strengthened slightly, and the low - sulfur fuel oil was dragged down by weak demand. The market's strength slowed down, but the price decline space is limited [32]. - **Asphalt**: Geopolitical disturbances are the core factors. The supply of asphalt is reduced, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to control positions and pay attention to combination strategies [33]. Precious Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: They continued to decline under pressure. It is recommended to maintain a strategic long - position view on precious metals, and pay attention to position control [35][36][37]. - **Gold & Silver**: They had a V - shaped reversal. It is recommended to maintain a strategic long - position view, and they may oscillate at a low level in the short term [38][39]. Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The pulp spot price rose, and the market is expected to be neutral in the short term. Both pulp and offset paper futures can maintain interval trading [41][42]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: The market fluctuated due to the changeable attitude of the US. They are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, but the geopolitical situation is uncertain [43][44]. - **LPG**: The futures price rose sharply due to capital emotions. The market is expected to return to the fundamental logic, and the short - term price may oscillate at a high level [45][46][47]. - **Methanol**: The price was affected by the Iran - US situation. It is recommended to conduct a 5 - 6 reverse arbitrage and a 9 - 1 positive arbitrage [49]. - **PP & Propylene**: The night - session price fell due to the news of US - Iran negotiations. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [50][51][52]. - **Plastic**: The night - session price fell with the oil price. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [53][54][55]. - **Rubber**: Synthetic rubber fluctuated greatly, and natural rubber rose slightly. Synthetic rubber is expected to maintain a strong wide - range shock, and natural rubber is expected to oscillate and stabilize [61][62]. - **Glass & Soda Ash**: Soda ash has a high supply pressure, and glass is restricted by supply recovery expectations and high intermediate inventories [63][64][65]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The cost of raw materials supports the steel price, but the high inventory of hot - rolled coils limits the upward space. The short - term price may rebound, but the height is limited [66][67]. - **Iron Ore**: The market is a mix of long and short factors. The price is supported in the short term but is under pressure in the medium and long term [68][69]. - **Coking Coal**: The price increase is mainly due to market expectations. It is recommended to gradually take profits on long positions and consider short - selling near - month contracts lightly if the price rises to a certain range [70]. - **Silicon Iron & Silicon Manganese**: They are supported by cost and oscillate strongly. The impact of the hurricane on manganese ore production areas needs attention [70][71]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Hogs**: The futures price continued to fall. It is recommended to sell the call options of the main contract [73]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price has support below. It is necessary to pay attention to the export situation of US cotton [73][74][75]. - **Sugar**: The short - term sugar price may maintain an oscillatory pattern [76][77]. - **Eggs**: The egg price rebounded. It is recommended to sell the call options of the main contract [78]. - **Apples**: The futures market is driven by fundamentals and delivery logic, and the 05 contract is expected to maintain a strong oscillatory pattern [85][86]. - **Peanuts**: The futures price may fall if the Middle East situation eases. It is recommended to short lightly [87][88]. - **Red Dates**: The price may oscillate at a low level due to sufficient supply and weak demand [89]. - **Logs**: The spot price is firm, and the inventory is consumed. It is recommended to hold long positions in the early stage, reduce long - position holdings, and use interval trading and short - term short - selling strategies [90][91].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the text. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 2026 government work report sets the GDP growth target at 4.5%-5%, leaving room for policy adjustment. It focuses on promoting domestic market construction, cultivating new productive forces, and deepening capital market reform, providing a solid foundation for economic and capital market development [2]. - The RMB exchange rate is affected by the US dollar index and domestic corporate settlement willingness. Short - term strategies are proposed for export and import enterprises [3]. - The stock index is expected to fluctuate in the short term due to geopolitical risks and weak rebound momentum [4]. - The bond market is affected neutrally by the government work report. If the A - share market adjusts, the bond market may rise; otherwise, it may continue to fluctuate [6]. - The container shipping index (European line) futures are expected to be highly volatile in the short term, with a weakening market sentiment and a possible downward - moving center [11]. - In the new energy sector, downstream enterprises of lithium carbonate are advised to replenish inventory at low prices. The silicon industry chain is in a bottom - grinding stage, waiting for capacity clearance and improvement of the supply - demand pattern [14][16]. - In the non - ferrous metals sector, aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong, alumina to be volatile and sorted, and copper prices are expected to fluctuate within a certain range. Zinc is weak in the short term and strong in the medium term, and nickel - stainless steel is volatile and weak [17][21][22]. - In the oil and gas sector, the crude oil market is mainly affected by the Middle East situation. Fuel oil prices are strong due to supply concerns, and asphalt prices follow the cost of crude oil [29][32][33]. - In the precious metals sector, platinum and palladium are in a long - term bull market but may face short - term adjustments. Gold and silver are strategically bullish but need to be cautious about short - term risks [36][38]. - In the chemical sector, pure benzene and styrene are expected to be strong, LPG is highly volatile, and methanol is affected by the geopolitical conflict. Polyolefins are supported by cost and supply - demand fundamentals if the conflict continues [39][41][42]. - In the rubber sector, natural rubber is expected to be volatile, and synthetic rubber is relatively easy to rise but has inventory pressure [47][67]. - In the urea market, the geopolitical conflict may drive up prices. In the glass and soda ash market, the pattern remains unchanged, waiting for unexpected factors [49][51][52]. - In the black sector, steel products are expected to be volatile and weak, iron ore has support in the short - term but limited upward space, and coal and coke may face downward pressure [53][55][56]. - In the agricultural and soft commodities sector, the pig market is weak, cotton has upward potential but is affected by external factors, sugar is expected to be volatile and strong, eggs are recommended to sell call options, apples are easy to rise but difficult to fall, and jujubes are expected to be in low - level oscillation [58][60][61]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: The situation is still unclear. The government work report sets the 2026 economic growth target at 4.5% - 5% and the CPI target at about 2%. The US initial jobless claims reached a new high, and the Middle East conflict continues [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: Affected by the US dollar index and corporate settlement willingness. Short - term strategies are proposed for export and import enterprises [3]. - **Stock Index**: Rebounded but with weak momentum. Expected to fluctuate in the short term due to geopolitical risks [4]. - **Treasury Bond**: The government work report has a neutral impact. The bond market may rise if the A - share market adjusts; otherwise, it may continue to fluctuate [6]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The market is in a near - strong and far - weak pattern, with high volatility. It is expected to be highly volatile in the short term, with a weakening market sentiment [8][11]. Commodities New Energy - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures price rose, and downstream enterprises are advised to replenish inventory at low prices [14]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: The futures prices fluctuated. The industry is in a bottom - grinding stage, waiting for capacity clearance and improvement of the supply - demand pattern [15][16]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Aluminum**: Affected by the Middle East conflict and the US dollar index, it is expected to be volatile and strong [17]. - **Copper**: The price is under pressure, and the expected price range is 99625 - 105171 yuan/ton [21]. - **Zinc**: Weak in the short term and strong in the medium term [22]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: Volatile and weak [22]. - **Tin**: Expected to be in high - level oscillation [25]. - **Lead**: Expected to be in oscillation [25]. Oils and Fats and Feeds - **Oilseeds**: Oscillating and sorting. The supply pressure is expected to return in the second quarter [26]. - **Oils**: Palm oil is affected by policy rumors, and the focus is on the Middle East conflict and relevant policies [26][27]. Energy and Oil and Gas - **Crude Oil**: The market is mainly affected by the Middle East situation, and the price is highly volatile [29][30]. - **Fuel Oil**: The price is strong due to supply concerns [32]. - **Asphalt**: The price follows the cost of crude oil and may fall if the geopolitical factor fades [33]. Precious Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: In a long - term bull market but may face short - term adjustments [36][37]. - **Gold and Silver**: Strategically bullish but need to be cautious about short - term risks [38]. Chemicals - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Expected to be strong due to cost support and market sentiment [39]. - **LPG**: Highly volatile, mainly affected by the Middle East situation [41]. - **Methanol**: Affected by the geopolitical conflict, with potential supply concerns [42]. - **Plastic PP**: The price is affected by the Middle East situation. If the conflict continues, it is supported by cost and supply - demand fundamentals [43]. - **Rubber**: Natural rubber is expected to be volatile, and synthetic rubber is relatively easy to rise but has inventory pressure [47][67]. - **Urea**: The geopolitical conflict may drive up prices [49]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The pattern remains unchanged, waiting for unexpected factors [51][52]. Black - **Steel Products**: Expected to be volatile and weak due to the weak impact of the government work report on the real estate market [53]. - **Iron Ore**: The price has support in the short - term but limited upward space due to supply - demand factors [55]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The price may face downward pressure if certain conditions are met [56]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: Silicon manganese is affected by high inventory, and silicon iron has better fundamentals but limited upward space [57]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Pig**: The market is weak, and a selling call option strategy is proposed [58]. - **Cotton**: The domestic supply - demand is expected to be tight, but it is affected by external factors [60]. - **Sugar**: Expected to be volatile and strong [61]. - **Egg**: A selling call option strategy is recommended [62]. - **Apple**: The price is easy to rise but difficult to fall due to the combination of fundamentals and delivery issues [68][70]. - **Jujube**: Expected to be in low - level oscillation due to sufficient supply and weak demand [71].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports - Global macro格局受四大重磅事件冲击，美以伊军事冲突成市场核心即时变量，需关注冲突烈度及对市场的影响，人民币汇率受央行政策和地缘冲突影响，短期或双向波动，长期升值趋势取决于国内经济和出口情况 [2][3] - 股指受两会和地缘政治局势影响，预计以短期情绪冲击为主，底部支撑强；国债存在上涨契机，但需关注市场环境；集运欧线受地缘冲突和船司挺价影响，预计震荡偏强 [6][7][9] - 碳酸锂短期预计在15 - 20万元/吨区间宽幅震荡，中长期价值支撑稳固；工业硅和多晶硅短期处于产能周期底部，需等待供需格局改善 [11][12][13] - 铝产业链受美伊冲突影响，铝价或震荡偏强，氧化铝震荡整理，铸造铝合金震荡偏强；铜价受库存和下游复工影响，上涨面临压力；锌价预计偏强震荡；镍不锈钢震荡偏强；锡价高位震荡；铅价震荡调整 [15][16][18] - 油料市场，二季度后大豆供应压力回归，菜粕或表现弱势；油脂市场受地缘冲突支撑，可寻找逢低看多机会 [26][27][28] - 燃料油期价有望强势冲高，沥青跟随成本上涨；铂金和钯金中长期牛市基础仍在，黄金和白银战略性看多 [30][32][34] - 纸浆和胶版纸期货可区间交易，纯苯或有低多机会；苯乙烯和LPG受地缘影响，成本支撑增强；甲醇受地缘冲突影响大；聚烯烃短期受情绪和成本驱动，PP基本面支撑强于PE [37][38][40] - 橡胶震荡回调，天胶中长期偏多，顺丁橡胶区间震荡；尿素受美伊战争影响，价格或上涨；玻璃纯碱基本面空间有限；丙烯受成本推动上涨 [50][51][54] - 螺纹和热卷受政策预期和高库存影响，短期内政策支撑盘面，但基本面偏弱；铁矿石供应压制价格，需求预期悲观；焦煤焦炭关注终端需求验证；硅铁和硅锰受消息面驱动上涨，但硅锰受高库存压制 [57][58][60] - 生猪现货持续下跌，可选择卖涨期权；棉花供需偏紧，建议回调布局多单；白糖基本面偏空，关注盘面能否站稳5300；鸡蛋短期窄幅震荡、稳中偏强；苹果关注节后消费和交割逻辑；红枣供需格局偏松，价格承压；原木可观望或低多 [65][66][76] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: Focus on the Middle East situation, including the Iran - US - Israel conflict, the impact on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, and the Chinese government's meeting on the "15th Five - Year Plan" [1] - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The central bank adjusted the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio to prevent one - sided appreciation expectations. Short - term exchange rate may show two - way fluctuations, and long - term appreciation depends on domestic economic recovery and export strength. Geopolitical conflicts may support the US dollar index [2][3] - **Stock Index**: Affected by the two sessions and geopolitical situation, short - term emotional shocks are expected, with strong bottom support [6] - **Treasury Bonds**: There is an opportunity for an increase, but the market environment needs to be monitored. It is recommended to hold medium - term long positions and avoid chasing high prices in the short term [6][7][8] - **Container Shipping on the European Route**: Geopolitical conflicts and shipping companies' price - holding behavior strengthen short - term support, but weak cargo volume limits the upside. The market is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [9][10] Commodities New Energy - **Lithium Carbonate**: Short - term price is expected to fluctuate widely between 150,000 - 200,000 yuan/ton. Long - term value is supported by downstream demand, but risks such as price increases affecting terminal economy need to be noted [11][12] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Currently at the bottom of the production cycle, waiting for supply - demand pattern improvement. Photovoltaic has long - term development potential [12][13][14] Non - ferrous Metals - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The US - Iran conflict may cause short - term price fluctuations in electrolytic aluminum. It is recommended to buy call options for aluminum and sell deep - out - of - the - money put options for alumina. Cast aluminum alloy may follow the trend of aluminum [15][16][17] - **Copper**: Affected by high inventory and slow downstream resumption, price increase is restricted. It is advisable to use calendar spread strategies or buy out - of - the - money call options [18][20] - **Zinc**: Under the pressure of inventory accumulation, it is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term, and the turning point needs to be observed [22] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The trend is slightly stronger, and attention should be paid to US tariff disturbances and Indonesian supply [22][23] - **Tin**: It is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations, and the impact of risk aversion on the market needs to be noted [23][24] - **Lead**: It is expected to fluctuate within a range, and interval operations are recommended [25] Oils and Fats, and Feeds - **Oilseeds**: The supply pressure of soybeans will return in the second quarter, and rapeseed meal may be weak [26] - **Oils and Fats**: Supported by geopolitical conflicts, there are opportunities to go long at low prices [26][27][28] Energy and Oil and Gas - **Fuel Oil**: Driven by supply shock, cost, and logistics, the futures price is expected to rise strongly [30] - **Asphalt**: The price will follow the cost of crude oil, and short - term geopolitical factors are dominant [31] Precious Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: The risk - aversion sentiment is fermented due to the Middle East geopolitical risk. The long - term bull market foundation remains, but position control is needed [32][33] - **Gold and Silver**: The risk - aversion allocation value is prominent. It is recommended to go long strategically and pay attention to economic data and policy expectations [34][35] Chemicals - **Pulp and Offset Paper**: Pulp futures are bearish due to inventory accumulation and weak cost support. Offset paper futures are affected by multiple factors and are in a range - bound state [37][38] - **Benzene and Styrene**: The cost support is enhanced due to the Middle East conflict, and they are likely to follow the rise of crude oil [38][39] - **LPG**: Affected by the US - Iran conflict, the external market is strong and the internal market is weak. The focus is on the situation in the Middle East [39][40][41] - **Methanol**: The geopolitical conflict has a significant impact, and the supply and price are likely to be affected [41][42] - **Plastics and PP**: The cost support is strengthened by the Middle East conflict. PE is supply - strong and demand - weak in the short term, while PP has supply reduction expectations and stronger fundamental support [44][45] - **Rubber**: Natural rubber is expected to fluctuate, and synthetic rubber is expected to be range - bound. Attention should be paid to supply, demand, and inventory [50][74] - **Urea**: Affected by the US - Iran war, international and domestic prices may rise [51][52] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The fundamental space is limited, and price fluctuations are restricted [53][54] - **Propylene**: Driven by cost, the price is expected to rise, but the downstream acceptance needs to be observed [54][55] Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Affected by policy expectations and high inventory, the short - term policy supports the market, but the fundamental weakness limits the upside [57] - **Iron Ore**: The supply suppresses the price, and the demand expectation is pessimistic. It is recommended to be bearish but not to short [58][59][60] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Enter the terminal demand verification period, and the real data is important. The price may face downward pressure if the supply recovers more than expected and the macro - sentiment weakens [60][61] - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: Driven by market rumors, silicon iron has a better fundamental situation, while silicon manganese is restricted by high inventory [61][62][63] Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Hogs**: The spot price continues to decline, and selling call options on the main contract is recommended [65] - **Cotton**: The domestic supply - demand is expected to be tight. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to foreign trade policies and export progress [66][67][68] - **Sugar**: The fundamental situation is bearish, and attention should be paid to whether the price can stand above 5300 [68][69] - **Eggs**: The price is expected to fluctuate narrowly and be slightly stronger in the short term, and selling call options on the main contract is recommended [69][70] - **Apples**: Pay attention to post - festival consumption and the delivery logic. The price may decline if the demand is weak [76][77] - **Jujubes**: The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the price is under pressure, likely to maintain low - level fluctuations [77][78] - **Logs**: The spot price has support, but the demand has not recovered significantly. Geopolitical factors may affect supply and cost. It is advisable to wait and see or go long at low prices [79]

Consumption - The contribution of trade-in programs to retail sales has weakened, with July retail sales growth declining by 1.1 percentage points to 3.7% year-on-year[3] - The personal consumption loan interest subsidy is expected to boost retail sales by approximately 0.2 percentage points, with a historical context showing a 1% subsidy could lead to a greater impact than previous years[4] - The consumer loan consumption rate has remained low, averaging around 2.5% since 2024, indicating a shift towards cash purchases rather than credit expansion[3] Production - Industrial production growth in July was 5.7%, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous value, with a month-on-month increase of only 0.38%[5] - Service sector production also saw a slight decline of 0.2 percentage points to 5.8% year-on-year, with mixed performance across various industries[5] Fixed Investment - Real estate investment has further declined, with July showing a year-on-year drop of 12.0%, and new housing sales showing signs of weakness[6] - Manufacturing investment has decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 6.2%, with significant declines in sectors such as non-ferrous metallurgy and chemical products[6] - Infrastructure investment turned negative for the first time since 2021, with broad infrastructure showing a decline of 1.9% year-on-year in July[6] Economic Outlook - The data from July indicates a further weakening of domestic demand, suggesting increased downward pressure on economic growth in Q4, which may prompt policy adjustments[7] - Risks include potential underperformance of policy measures and unexpected downturns in the U.S. economy[7]