金融期货早评 宏观：关注中东局势 【市场资讯】1）伊朗局势：①特朗普称伊朗新领导层希望恢复谈判，他已同意进行对话。 ②特朗普称一口气干掉了 48 个伊朗领导人，基本摧毁伊朗海军总部。美军说摧毁革命卫 队总部。③伊朗临时领导委员会已成立，主要成员由伊朗总统佩泽希齐扬等 3 人组成。④ 伊朗外长：伊朗对任何有助于缓解紧张局势的努力持开放态度，可能在未来几天内看到新 领导人的选举。⑤以总理：未来几天对伊朗打击力度会进一步加强。⑥特朗普：对伊朗 的军事行动可能持续 4 周。⑦伊朗前总统内贾德遇袭身亡，伊朗多位军事指挥官确认死亡 ⑧美军：3 名美军官兵已在行动中阵亡。伊朗称袭击致美军伤亡 560 人。2）中东海运咽喉 ——①霍尔木兹海峡外积压大量油轮。②多家船司或将绕行好望角，海运费用或将上涨。 ③伊朗称若能源设施遭袭，该地区所有国家油气设施都将被毁。④伊朗外长：无意关闭 霍尔木兹海峡。3）中共中央政治局召开会议，讨论"十五五"规划纲要草案和政府工作报告。 中共中央总书记习近平主持会议。 【南华观点】上周，全球宏观格局迎来四大重磅事件的集中冲击：美国最高法院对特朗普 关税政策的终局裁决、特朗普极具对抗性的国情咨文演讲、 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Views of the Report - If Kevin Warsh is successfully appointed as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, he will combine a hawkish stance with political compromise, implementing a unique policy of simultaneous interest rate cuts and balance - sheet reduction. His core goal is to compress the private sector's balance sheet and repair the government's balance sheet, with oil prices serving as a key supplementary tool for this policy. This series of policy adjustments will interact with the narrative of the loss of US dollar credit, becoming a crucial scenario to test this narrative [2]. - The market is expected to enter a cautious exploration period in February. The key lies in Warsh's explanation of policy contradictions during the Senate hearing. His combination policy of interest rate cuts and balance - sheet reduction may suppress risk assets such as equities and be beneficial for the bond market to carry out short - term borrowing and long - term investment strategies. However, the high - level operation of long - term yields also brings uncertainties to the real economy [2]. - The trend of Warsh's policies will become the core variable in the global financial market, and whether his nomination can be confirmed by the Senate is currently the primary uncertainty factor. Subsequently, three key points need to be focused on: the Senate voting result, the possible risk of the Fed's independence caused by Powell's departure, and the switch of the global market trading narrative [2]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Market Information**: Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chairman. Senate Democrats and some Republicans oppose the nomination. Eurozone Q4 2025 GDP grew 1.3% year - on - year. Japan's Tokyo January core CPI slowed to 2%. South Korea is concerned about the won's depreciation. The US continued to list Japan as a "monitoring object" [1]. - **Core Logic**: If Warsh takes office, the Fed's monetary policy framework may change from the "post - Keynesian data - dependent model" to the "supply - side monetarism" paradigm. The US dollar index may strengthen if US economic data is positive. His policy may suppress risk assets and benefit the bond market [2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: Warsh's nomination triggered high market volatility. The on - shore RMB depreciated slightly against the US dollar. The change in the Fed's policy framework may reshape market expectations, and the US dollar index may rise [2][3]. - **Stock Index**: The nomination of Warsh led to market fluctuations. Overseas market reactions may affect A - shares in the short term, causing a phased adjustment. The market style may shift from "small - and - medium - cap stocks outperforming" to "large - cap stocks outperforming" [6]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market's rise was partly due to the stock market's adjustment and policy rumors. Warsh's nomination may lead to a deeper market adjustment. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield may break through 1.80%, and mid - line long positions can consider partial profit - taking [6][7][8]. - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The market shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. Near - month contracts are suppressed by weak spot prices, while long - term contracts are supported by geopolitical uncertainties. The market is expected to continue this differentiation [8][9][10]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price first rose and then fell. Global copper inventories continued to rise, but the growth rate slowed. China's power grid investment may increase copper demand. Before the holiday, short - term range trading is recommended [12][13][14]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The aluminum price was affected by funds and emotions, first rising and then falling. Fundamentally, there is pressure on aluminum prices due to increased production and weakening demand. In the long term, the aluminum price is expected to rise. For alumina, the long - term trend is weak, and for cast aluminum alloy, it is recommended to pay attention to the price difference with aluminum [16][17]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price recovered its previous gains. The supply is expected to be loose, and the demand is weak. It is expected to maintain a wide - range shock [17]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: The prices of nickel and stainless steel fell. They are mainly affected by the market and macro - level emotions. The supply and demand pattern may be affected in the long - term, but the short - term impact is limited [18][19]. - **Tin**: The tin price fell, but there is support at the bottom. The market is in a state of divergence, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [20]. - **Lead**: The lead price was weak, and the market is expected to fluctuate within a range. Selling options to collect stable premiums is recommended [20]. Oils and Feeds - **Oilseeds**: The market shows a pattern of strong oils and weak meals. The supply of imported soybeans may have a gap in Q1, and the prices of domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal are not optimistic [22][23][24]. - **Oils**: The overall trend of oils is still prone to rise and difficult to fall. Palm oil is facing a pressure test, and the prices of soybean oil and rapeseed oil are affected by supply and demand factors such as production and policies [24][25][26]. Energy and Oil and Gas - **Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur fuel oil supply is gradually recovering, but the demand is weak. The low - sulfur fuel oil supply is abundant, and the demand is stable. The cracking spread of high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to decline in the long - term, and the pressure on the low - sulfur fuel oil to contract is increasing [28][29]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt price is rising weakly. The recent rise is driven by multiple factors, but the supply pressure will increase in the future. The 03 contract may provide a trading opportunity [30]. Precious Metals - **Platinum & Palladium**: Warsh's nomination led to a sharp decline in platinum and palladium prices. In the short - term, the "tightening trade" expectation does not change the long - term "loose trade" trend. Attention should be paid to position control [31][33][34]. - **Gold & Silver**: The prices of gold and silver fluctuated sharply. In the short - term, they may enter a phased adjustment period, but in the long - term, they are expected to rise due to factors such as the Fed's policy and the global de - dollarization trend [34][38][39]. Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The prices of pulp and offset paper futures fell. The decline is due to factors such as the overall bearish sentiment in the commodity market, increased port inventories, and reduced downstream demand. It is recommended to wait and see [40][41][42]. - **LPG**: The LPG price is affected by geopolitical factors. The supply is neutral - low, and the demand is weak. Attention should be paid to the risk of price increases [42][43]. - **PTA - PX**: The PX supply is expected to remain high, and the PTA supply is stable. The high processing fee of PTA is expected to be difficult to maintain. It is recommended to buy PX on dips and short the PTA processing fee on highs [43][44]. - **MEG - Bottle Grade Resin**: The demand for ethylene glycol is seasonally weak, and the supply is expected to increase. The price is expected to fluctuate widely with the macro - environment. Attention should be paid to geopolitical risks [46][47]. - **Methanol**: The methanol market is volatile, mainly affected by geopolitical risks and the improvement of the energy - chemical commodity market sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see [47]. - **PP**: The PP price is affected by macro - emotions and cost factors. The supply and demand are both decreasing. Attention should be paid to macro - trends and cost changes [49]. - **PE**: The PE price is affected by macro - emotions and cost factors. The supply is increasing, and the demand is decreasing. Attention should be paid to the risk of price declines [50]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene are affected by geopolitical factors. The supply of pure benzene is increasing, and the demand is decreasing. The supply of styrene will increase in February, and the demand will decline. It is recommended to wait and see and buy styrene on dips [50][52]. - **Urea**: The urea price is expected to decline in the short - term. It is recommended to close long positions [52]. - **Glass - Soda Ash**: The soda ash supply is expected to be in excess, and the glass market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to wait and see [54][56]. - **Propylene**: The propylene price is affected by cost and supply - demand factors. The supply and demand are both decreasing, and the price is expected to be supported. Attention should be paid to the development of the US - Iran situation [57]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil are in a range - bound state. The supply may increase, and the demand is seasonally weak. The iron ore price is affected by factors such as steel mill restocking and supply and demand [58][59]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price follows the overall market trend. The supply is in a seasonal low, and the demand may increase with the rise of iron - water production [60]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: The coking coal market is in a stage of excess supply, and the coke price increase may face difficulties. The short - term price volatility may increase, and the long - term trend depends on domestic mine复产 and downstream demand recovery [62]. - **Silicon Iron & Silicon Manganese**: The prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese are in a range - bound state, with cost support at the bottom and supply - demand pressure at the top [62]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Hogs**: The pig prices in the north rebounded, and those in the south stabilized. The market is expected to see an increase in both supply and demand before the Spring Festival. The specific price trend depends on the actual出栏 volume and terminal consumption [64][65]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price is under pressure due to the strengthening of the US dollar. The domestic cotton price is supported by supply - demand expectations but restricted by the high domestic - foreign price difference. It is recommended to buy on dips [65][66]. - **Sugar**: The international raw sugar price fell, and the domestic sugar price is affected by international prices. The short - term price increase is mainly due to capital factors, and the upward space is limited [66][67][68]. - **Eggs**: The spot egg price is stable at a high level, and the large basis indicates risks after the Spring Festival. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range [68]. - **Apples**: The pre - holiday apple stocking accelerated, the spot price was loose, and the futures price was relatively stable. Attention should be paid to the logic of the shortage of delivery goods [69][70]. - **Jujubes**: The jujube supply is abundant, and the demand is the focus. The short - term price may fluctuate at a low level, and the long - term price is under pressure [70][71]. - **Logs**: The log inventory is at a low level, and the spot price is rising. The overall valuation is increasing. It is recommended to sell put options [72][73].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of global geopolitical games, the strategic value of key mineral resources is continuously highlighted, and the pricing logic of related varieties has shifted from simple supply - demand to "resource security + commodity attribute" driven. The market's expectation of a loose monetary policy in major economies is rising, but the short - term market of strongly financial - attribute varieties is still volatile. China's industrial economy has entered a new stage of bottom - building and recovery, and industrial enterprise profits are expected to turn to moderate growth in 2026 [2]. - The "exchange rate inquiry" by the New York Fed may be an important signal of US - Japan joint intervention. The US dollar index is under pressure, and the RMB is expected to appreciate against the US dollar due to factors such as seasonal settlement demand and market expectations [4]. - The spring rally in the stock index market is expected to last until February, with small - and medium - cap indexes likely to continue to be strong, while large - cap indexes are relatively weak [8]. - In the bond market, it is recommended to hold medium - term long positions and wait and see in the short term [9]. - In the container shipping market, the near - term contracts are under pressure, while the far - term contracts may be driven up by factors such as trade improvement and geopolitical risks [10][12]. - For new energy commodities, lithium carbonate prices may strengthen in the short term, and industrial silicon prices are likely to rise in the short term, while polysilicon is still in the process of destocking [14][15][17]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, copper prices are affected by market sentiment, aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong, zinc has strong upward pressure, nickel - stainless steel is in a correction, tin prices are affected by news, and lead is in a narrow - range and weak oscillation [20][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29]. - In the oil and fat market, oilseeds follow the rebound, and oils are expected to be strong in the short term, with palm oil being the strongest [30][33]. - In the energy and oil and gas market, fuel oil cracking is strong, low - sulfur fuel oil has limited upward momentum, asphalt is affected by geopolitical factors and may correct, and platinum and palladium are expected to rise in the medium - long term [36][38][40][45]. - In the chemical market, pulp prices may decline, PX - TA may have a phased correction, MEG may fluctuate widely, PP and PE are affected by macro - emotions, pure benzene and styrene market sentiment has declined, rubber is in a shock correction, urea is recommended to hold long positions, and glass and soda ash are in a repeated pattern [51][52][53][56][57][59][60][62][63][65][66][67][71][73][75][76]. - In the steel and iron ore market, rebar and hot - rolled coils are in a bottom - range oscillation, iron ore price fluctuations are narrowing, coking coal and coke are testing the lower support, and ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are oscillating weakly with cost support [77][78][79][80][81][83][84]. - In the agricultural and soft commodities market, live pigs are falling, cotton is recommended to buy on dips, sugar has limited upward potential, eggs are under pressure to fall, apples may be affected by the shortage of delivery products, dates may be in a low - level oscillation, and logs are recommended to wait and see [86][88][90][91][92][99][100][101][102][103]. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: The Fed Chair nominee may be announced this week. Japan's Prime Minister may resign if the ruling camp fails to win a majority in the House election. China's industrial enterprise profits in 2025 increased by 0.6% year - on - year, and the single - month growth rate in December turned positive [1][2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: Concerns about the US government's new shutdown risk. The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed lower in the previous trading day, and the RMB is expected to appreciate against the US dollar [3][4]. - **Stock Index**: The spring rally is expected to last until February, with small - and medium - cap indexes likely to be strong, and large - cap indexes relatively weak [8]. - **Treasury Bond**: It is recommended to hold medium - term long positions and wait and see in the short term [9]. Commodities New Energy - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term price and basis may strengthen due to pre - holiday restocking demand [14][15]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon prices are likely to rise in the short term, and polysilicon is in the process of destocking [16][17][18]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The market is affected by sentiment, and it is not recommended to open new positions above 100,000 yuan [20][22]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong, alumina may oscillate, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile and strong [23][24]. - **Zinc**: The upper pressure is large, and it is expected to be weakly volatile [24]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: It is in a correction, and the short - term trend is affected by market sentiment [25][26]. - **Tin**: The price is affected by Indonesian news and a new model, and it is expected to be in a high - level wide - range oscillation [27][28]. - **Lead**: It is in a narrow - range and weak oscillation [29]. Oils and Fats - **Oilseeds**: They follow the rebound, but lack their own driving force [30]. - **Oils**: They are expected to be strong in the short term, with palm oil being the strongest [33]. Energy and Oil and Gas - **Fuel Oil**: Cracking is strong, but the fundamental situation is still poor [36][37]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It has limited upward momentum, and the supply pressure is increasing [38][39]. - **Asphalt**: It is affected by geopolitical factors and may correct, and it is recommended to focus on the winter - storage situation of refineries [40][41][42]. Precious Metals - **Platinum & Palladium**: They are expected to rise in the medium - long term, and it is recommended to buy on dips [45][46]. - **Gold & Silver**: Spot gold is approaching 5,200, and it is recommended to buy on dips [47][49]. Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: Pulp prices may decline, and offset paper may be affected by cost and supply factors [51][52]. - **PTA - PX**: They may have a phased correction, and it is recommended to buy on dips [53][56]. - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: It may fluctuate widely, and it is not recommended to short in the short term [57][59]. - **PP**: The short - term fundamental pressure is not large, and it is affected by macro - emotions [60][62]. - **PE**: The fundamental situation is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [63][65]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: The market sentiment has declined, and it is recommended to focus on export increments and downstream feedback [66]. - **Rubber**: It is in a shock correction, and it is recommended to wait and see or hold light positions [67][71][72]. - **Urea**: It is recommended to hold long positions [73][74]. - **Glass Soda Ash**: They are in a repeated pattern, with soda ash having an over - supply expectation and glass having a weak supply - demand pattern [75][76]. Steel and Iron Ore - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: They are in a bottom - range oscillation, and the price ranges of rebar and hot - rolled coil are estimated [77][78]. - **Iron Ore**: The price fluctuations are narrowing, and the price has certain support [79][80]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: They are testing the lower support, and the price may face pressure in the short term [81][83]. - **Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese**: They are oscillating weakly with cost support [84]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Live Pig**: The price is falling [86]. - **Cotton**: It is recommended to buy on dips and focus on downstream orders [88][89]. - **Sugar**: The upward potential is limited [90][91]. - **Egg**: The futures are trading the post - holiday off - season expectation in advance, and the price is under pressure to fall [91][92]. - **Apple**: The spot price is loose, and it is recommended to focus on the shortage of delivery products [99][100]. - **Date**: It may be in a low - level oscillation, and it is recommended to focus on downstream procurement [101]. - **Log**: The volatility has returned to a low level, and it is recommended to wait and see [102][103].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views - **Macro and Financial Futures** - The current macro - environment features global geopolitical turmoil and domestic structural differentiation with targeted policies for stable growth. The old US - led global system is ending, and the global financial market is in a risk - averse stage. China's economy is expected to achieve a GDP growth target of 4.5% - 5% in 2026, and the government is working to boost domestic demand [1]. - The RMB exchange rate has a solid basis for appreciation due to China's export resilience and increased corporate willingness to settle foreign exchange. However, its appreciation process will be relatively moderate [2][3]. - The stock index is in an adjustment stage in the short - term, with a continued structural market. In the long - term, the logic of loose liquidity driving the market remains positive [4]. - The bond market is not recommended for short - term chasing as the upside is limited despite improved market sentiment [5]. - The container shipping European route futures are expected to maintain a volatile pattern, with near - month contracts weak and far - month contracts relatively resistant to decline [6][7][8]. - **Commodities** - Lithium carbonate is likely to show "off - season not off" characteristics in the spot market, and it is recommended to go long on dips before early February in the futures market [11][12]. - Industrial silicon is expected to have an upward - biased price due to increased demand for export and supply - side disturbances. Polysilicon is in a de - stocking phase with no clear upward driver [12][13]. - Copper prices continue to adjust with limited upward momentum. Aluminum is expected to oscillate strongly in the long - term, while alumina is expected to be weak, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be strong [15][17][19]. - Zinc prices are likely to be weak and volatile in the short - term. Nickel - stainless steel is expected to be strong with some fundamental support. Tin prices may maintain a high - level wide - range oscillation. Lead prices are expected to oscillate within a narrow range [19][20][22]. - For oilseeds, the external soybean market is weak and volatile, while domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal have different outlooks. For oils, the sector is likely to be strong in the short - term, with palm oil being the strongest [24][25][26]. - High - sulfur fuel oil has a poor fundamental situation but is supported by the Iran issue. Low - sulfur fuel oil has a weak cracking spread. Asphalt is expected to oscillate with limited upside and downside [30][31][33]. - Precious metals are in an upward - biased pattern but may face short - term correction pressure. Gold and silver can be considered for mid - term long positions on dips [34][35]. - **Chemicals** - Pulp and offset paper markets are relatively bearish, and it is recommended to wait and see. LPG shows an internal - external divergence. PTA - PX and MEG - bottle chips have different supply - demand situations, and it is recommended to go long on PX and short on polysilicon [36][39][41]. - Methanol is affected by geopolitical factors, and it is recommended to wait and see. PP is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation, and PE is in a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand [45][47][49]. - Pure benzene and styrene have improved supply - demand situations. Rubber is expected to oscillate widely, and it is recommended to go long with a light position. Urea is recommended to hold long positions [50][52][56]. - Soda ash is in a situation of increasing supply, and glass is in a supply - demand weak pattern. Propylene prices are driven by cost and are expected to be affected by geopolitical and device changes [58][59][60]. - **Black Metals** - Rebar and hot - rolled coils are in a low - level oscillation. Iron ore prices have fallen but have support below. Coking coal and coke prices are under pressure in the long - term. Ferroalloys are expected to oscillate at the bottom [61][62][63]. - **Agricultural and Soft Commodities** - Hog prices are expected to decline slightly, and the supply - demand situation is still unbalanced. Cotton prices are expected to oscillate. Sugar prices are short - term weak. Rubber is expected to oscillate widely. Apples' future performance depends on demand. Jujubes are in a low - level oscillation. Logs are recommended for range - bound operations and long positions on dips [65][67][76] Summary by Directory Financial Futures - **Macro** - **Market Information**: Trump's statements on Greenland, central bank's payment settlement work meeting, and other geopolitical and economic events [1]. - **Core Judgments**: The global geopolitical situation affects the financial market, and China focuses on stable growth and boosting domestic demand [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate** - **Market Review**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar declined slightly. - **Core Logic**: China's export and corporate behavior support the RMB's appreciation, and the process is affected by the US dollar index and central bank policies [2][3]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Export enterprises can lock in forward exchange settlement, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling purchase strategy [3][4]. - **Stock Index** - **Market Review**: The stock index showed a differentiated performance, and the trading volume decreased. - **Core Logic**: Affected by geopolitical risks, the market is in an adjustment stage with a structural market [4]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Wait for short - term callbacks to increase positions [4]. - **Bond** - **Market Review**: The bond market showed a differentiated performance, and the money market was loose. - **Core Logic**: The bond market follows the stock market, and the upside is limited [5]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Hold medium - term long positions and wait and see in the short - term [5]. - **Container Shipping European Route** - **Market Review**: The futures market showed a "near - weak, far - strong" pattern. - **Core Logic**: The market is in a game between weak current demand and long - term detour cost support [6][7]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Trend traders can wait or operate in a narrow range [8]. Commodities - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Market Review**: The futures price increased, and the trading volume decreased. - **Industry Performance**: The spot market of the lithium - battery industry chain is general, and the prices of upstream and downstream products are rising [11]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Go long on dips before early February and reduce positions before the Spring Festival [11][12]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon** - **Market Review**: Industrial silicon futures rose slightly, and polysilicon futures fell. - **Industry Performance**: The spot market of industrial silicon is general, and the photovoltaic industry spot market is weak [12][13]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Go long on industrial silicon and short on polysilicon, and reduce positions before the Spring Festival [13][14]. - **Non - ferrous Metals** - **Copper** - **Market Review**: Copper prices showed different trends in different markets. - **Industry Information**: Warehouse receipts and inventory changes, and Rio Tinto's production increase [15][16]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Do not build new positions above 100,000, hold long positions in the 90,000 - 95,000 range, and adjust positions flexibly in the 95,000 - 100,000 range [17]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain** - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices oscillated, and alumina and cast aluminum alloy prices changed slightly [17]. - **Industry Information**: The spot market of electrolytic aluminum improved slightly [17]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Aluminum is expected to be oscillatory and strong, alumina is expected to be weak, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be strong [18][19]. - **Zinc** - **Market Review**: Zinc prices showed a weak oscillation. - **Core Logic**: The supply is expected to be loose, and the demand is cold [19]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Weakly oscillate, and aggressive investors can try short - selling [19][20]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel** - **Market Review**: Nickel and stainless steel prices rose. - **Industry Performance**: The spot market prices and inventory changes [20]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Oscillate strongly, and pay attention to the supply and demand situation [20][21]. - **Tin** - **Market Review**: Tin prices were volatile. - **Core Logic**: The supply is affected, and the demand is in the off - season [22]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Be cautious when entering the market due to high volatility [22]. - **Lead** - **Market Review**: Lead prices oscillated in a narrow range. - **Core Logic**: The supply and demand are in a weak pattern [22]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Oscillate, and sell options to collect premiums [22][23]. - **Oils and Feeds** - **Oilseeds** - **Market Review**: The external soybean market rebounded, and the domestic market was weak. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The supply and demand of imported soybeans, domestic soybean meal, and rapeseed meal are different [24][25]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Exit the M3 - 5 long - short spread, and hold a small short position in rapeseed meal [25][26]. - **Oils** - **Market Review**: The oils market continued to strengthen. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The supply and demand of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil have different characteristics [26][27]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: The oils sector is strong in the short - term, and pay attention to the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil [27][28]. Energy and Oil and Gas - **Fuel Oil** - **Market Review**: The fuel oil futures price increased. - **Industry Performance**: The supply and demand of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil have different situations [30][31]. - **Core Logic**: High - sulfur fuel oil has a poor foundation, and low - sulfur fuel oil has a weak cracking spread [30][31]. - **Asphalt** - **Market Review**: The asphalt market price decreased slightly. - **Industry Performance**: The supply and demand and inventory changes [31][32]. - **Core Logic**: Affected by geopolitics, the asphalt market is expected to oscillate [32][33]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Pay attention to long - short spreads, basis, and cracking long - positions [33]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver** - **Market Review**: Gold prices first rose and then fell, and silver prices were weaker [34]. - **Trading Logic**: Pay attention to geopolitical events, Fed policies, and other factors [35]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: The precious metals are in an upward - biased pattern, and consider long positions on dips [35]. Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper** - **Market Review**: The pulp and offset paper futures prices oscillated. - **Industry Performance**: The port inventory of pulp increased, and the downstream demand was weak [36]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Wait and see, and consider long positions in offset paper at low prices [36]. - **LPG** - **Market Review**: The LPG futures price increased. - **Industry Performance**: The supply and demand and inventory changes [36][37]. - **Core Logic**: The internal and external markets diverge, and pay attention to geopolitical and device changes [37][38]. - **PTA - PX** - **Market Review**: The PX and PTA futures prices changed. - **Industry Performance**: The supply, demand, and inventory of PX and PTA are different [39][40]. - **Core Logic**: The supply - demand situation of PTA and PX is complex, and the long - term pattern is good [40][41]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Go long on PX and PTA on dips [41]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips** - **Market Review**: The ethylene glycol futures price changed. - **Industry Performance**: The supply, demand, and inventory of ethylene glycol and bottle chips [41][42][43]. - **Core Logic**: The demand is under pressure, and the long - term pattern is bearish [43][44]. - **Methanol** - **Market Review**: The methanol futures price increased. - **Industry Performance**: The inventory decreased, and the downstream profit was affected [45]. - **Core Logic**: Affected by geopolitics, the operation is difficult [45][46]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Wait and see [46]. - **PP** - **Market Review**: The PP futures price increased. - **Industry Performance**: The supply and demand and inventory changes [46][47]. - **Core Logic**: The short - term supply - demand pattern is improved, but the long - term is uncertain [47][48]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Oscillate widely [48]. - **PE** - **Market Review**: The PE futures price increased. - **Industry Performance**: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to decrease [48][49]. - **Core Logic**: The supply - demand pattern is unfavorable [49]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene** - **Market Review**: The pure benzene and styrene futures prices increased. - **Industry Performance**: The inventory and supply - demand changes [50][51][52]. - **Core Logic**: The supply - demand situation of pure benzene and styrene is improved [51][52]. - **Rubber** - **Market Review**: The rubber futures prices oscillated. - **Industry Performance**: The inventory and supply - demand changes [52][53][54]. - **Core Logic**: Affected by macro and supply - demand factors, the price oscillates widely [55][56]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Go long with a light position and pay attention to spreads [56]. - **Urea** - **Market Review**: The urea futures price increased. - **Industry Performance**: The inventory decreased, and the market sentiment changed [56][57]. - **Core Logic**: The supply is excessive, and the price is affected by policies [57]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Hold long positions [57]. - **Glass - Soda Ash** - **Soda Ash** - **Market Review**: The soda ash futures price decreased. - **Industry Performance**: The inventory decreased, and the supply is expected to increase [58]. - **Core Logic**: The supply is excessive, and the price is under pressure [58]. - **Glass** - **Market Review**: The glass futures price decreased. - **Industry Performance**: The inventory decreased, but the demand is weak [59]. - **Core Logic**: The supply - demand is weak, and the price has no trend [59]. - **Propylene** - **Market Review**: The propylene futures price increased. - **Industry Performance**: The supply and demand and inventory changes [59][60]. - **Core Logic**: Affected by cost and geopolitics, the supply - demand is balanced [60]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Pay attention to geopolitical and device changes [60]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils** - **Market Review**: The prices oscillated, and the trading volume was low. - **Core Logic**: The supply - demand is neutral, and the price is affected by raw materials [61]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: The price will oscillate in a certain range [61]. - **Iron Ore** - **Market Review**: The iron ore price continued to fall. - **Core Logic**: The previous high valuation is being adjusted, but there is support below [62]. - **Coking Coal and Coke** - **Market Review**: The prices oscillated. - **Core Logic**: The supply is increasing, and the price is under pressure in the long - term [63]. - **Ferroalloys** - **Market Review**: The ferroalloys prices oscillated. - **Core Logic**: The supply - demand is weak, and the price is supported by cost [63]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Oscillate at the bottom [64]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Hogs** - **Market Review**: The hog futures price decreased. - **Industry Performance**: The supply - demand is unbalanced, and the price is under pressure [65][66]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Pay attention to pre - festival stocking demand [67]. - **Cotton** - **Market Review**: The cotton futures price oscillated. - **Industry Performance**: The inventory increased, and the supply - demand situation is complex [67]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Oscillate and pay attention to downstream imports and orders [68].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Globally, the geopolitical landscape is undergoing adjustments, with the US - EU game as a key variable. The EU's freezing of the US - EU trade agreement approval process has led to a halt in bilateral economic and trade cooperation, triggering panic about a possible $4 trillion US debt sell - off by Europe. The traditional safe - haven status of US debt is challenged, and the financial market has entered a "safe - haven - dominated" stage. The US faces structural dilemmas, and global capital is shifting to diversified allocation. Domestically, in 2025, the economy showed structural differentiation. In 2026, with a GDP growth target of 4.5% - 5%, expanding domestic demand is the core focus. Fiscal and monetary policies are coordinated to support domestic demand, infrastructure investment, consumption stimulation, and industrial upgrading [2]. - For the RMB exchange rate, the appreciation foundation of the RMB against the US dollar is solid, but the appreciation process will be relatively moderate, affected by the strength of the US dollar index and the central bank's regulation [3]. - For the stock index, although there are many external disturbances, the bottom support of the stock index is strong [4]. - For treasury bonds, the short - term upward trend of the bond market is mainly driven by the stock market adjustment, and it is recommended to hold medium - term long positions and wait and see in the short term [6]. - For the container shipping European line, the short - term is expected to continue the volatile pattern, and it is recommended to wait and see [9]. - For lithium carbonate, the spot market may show "off - season not off" characteristics, and the futures are expected to be in a high - level wide - range volatile state. It is recommended to wait for the market risk to be fully released before entering the market [10]. - For industrial silicon and polysilicon, in the short term, the price of industrial silicon is likely to rise, and in the medium - long term, it is recommended to pay attention to the supply side [12]. - For copper, the exchange has strengthened supervision, and the short - term price is under pressure. It is recommended to be cautious when building new positions above 100,000 yuan [16]. - For aluminum, the short - term is affected by emotions and may fluctuate and correct, but there is upward space in the medium - long term; for alumina, it is in an oversupply situation and is expected to be weak; for cast aluminum alloy, it has strong follow - up to aluminum and is recommended to pay attention to the spread [18]. - For nickel - stainless steel, it is expected to be volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to the quota issuance rhythm [19]. - For oilseeds, the external market of US soybeans is weak, the domestic soybean meal is affected by the reserve release, and the rapeseed meal may return to international pricing if the trade relationship improves [23]. - For oils, they are easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term [23]. - For fuel oil, the high - sulfur market is still weak, and the low - sulfur cracking is sluggish [26][27]. - For asphalt, it will continue to fluctuate in the short term, and attention can be paid to positive spreads, 03 basis, and cracking long - matching opportunities [29]. - For platinum and palladium, the bull market foundation is still there, but attention should be paid to the opening jump phenomenon [33]. - For gold and silver, gold is strong, and silver is volatile. The overall trend of precious metals is easy to rise, but attention should be paid to the risk of silver's decline [34]. - For pulp - offset paper, the pulp market is relatively bearish, and the offset paper is expected to be neutral. It is recommended to wait and see [39][40]. - For LPG, the supply - demand relationship has weakened, and attention should be paid to geopolitical changes and domestic device maintenance [41]. - For PTA - PX, the short - term is affected by unexpected maintenance rumors, and it is recommended to buy on dips in the long term [41]. - For MEG - bottle chips, the demand side is under pressure, and the over - supply expectation suppresses the valuation [44]. - For methanol, the geopolitical logic continues, but the 05 contract's fundamentals have weakened marginally, and it is recommended to wait and see [45]. - For PP, it is necessary to pay attention to the PDH device dynamics, and the short - term supply - demand pattern is expected to be better than that of PE [48]. - For PE, it is turning to a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand and is expected to be weak in the short term [49]. - For pure benzene - styrene, the supply side has new changes, and the styrene price rose at night [49]. - For rubber, it is expected to fluctuate in a wide range and may stabilize in the short term, but external risks should be noted [53]. - For glass and soda ash, the supply - demand expectation is weak [55][56]. - For propylene, the supply - demand relationship has weakened, and attention should be paid to geopolitical and device changes [57]. - For rebar and hot - rolled coil, they are expected to fluctuate at a low level, and the price range is recommended [58][59]. - For iron ore, it is expected to fluctuate in a wide range, and the price is affected by macro expectations [60]. - For coking coal and coke, the disk is weak, and the long - term price may be under pressure if the macro situation changes [62]. - For live pigs, the cold wave has put pressure on the northern pig prices [63]. - For cotton, it is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to downstream imports and orders [65]. - For sugar, it is expected to fluctuate under pressure, and attention should be paid to the production progress in Thailand and India [67]. - For eggs, the price is expected to be stable overall with local adjustments [69]. - For apples, the near - term contracts are affected by weak demand, and the far - term contracts are less affected. Attention should be paid to the stocking situation [74]. - For red dates, the short - term price may fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to downstream procurement [75]. - For logs, although the price has broken through, it does not have the condition to continue to fall sharply. It is recommended to operate in the range of 750 - 795 [76]. Summary by Directory Financial Futures - **Market Information**: The EU has frozen the US - EU trade agreement approval process; the ADP weekly employment report shows an average increase of 8,000 private - sector jobs per week; there are issues related to Greenland; domestic fiscal and financial policies are coordinated to promote domestic demand; the US Treasury Secretary reveals the progress of nominating the next Fed Chairman [1]. - **Core Judgments and Transmission Logic**: Geopolitical changes have led to a "safe - haven - dominated" global financial market. Domestically, expanding domestic demand is the focus in 2026, and fiscal and monetary policies are coordinated to support the economy [2]. - **Exchange Rate Analysis**: The RMB has a solid foundation for appreciation against the US dollar, but the process will be moderate, affected by the US dollar index and central bank regulation [3]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: Export enterprises are recommended to lock in forward settlement at around 7.01, and import enterprises are recommended to adopt a rolling purchase strategy at the 6.93 level [4]. Stock Index - **Market Review**: The stock index closed down collectively, and the trading volume increased slightly [4]. - **Important Information**: The Ministry of Finance has announced policies to support the economy, and there is a global bond - selling wave [4]. - **Market Interpretation**: The stock index was affected by geopolitical factors and short - term capital adjustments but has strong bottom support [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Review**: The treasury bond market rose, and the bond yield decreased [5]. - **Important Information**: The LPR remained unchanged, and policies were announced to expand domestic demand [6]. - **Core Views**: The short - term upward trend of the bond market is driven by the stock market, and it is recommended to hold medium - term long positions and wait and see in the short term [6]. Container Shipping European Line - **Market Review**: The container shipping index (European line) futures market closed down, and the trading volume was light [7]. - **Information Sorting**: The core contradiction is the game between the price cut of leading shipping companies and the repeated resumption of navigation. There are both positive and negative factors [8]. - **Trading Judgments**: It is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [9]. Commodities New Energy - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Market Review**: The futures price of lithium carbonate rose, and the trading volume increased [10]. - **Industry Performance**: The spot market of the lithium - battery industry chain was average, and the price of lithium ore and lithium salt increased [10]. - **Viewpoint**: The spot market may show "off - season not off" characteristics, and the futures are expected to be in a high - level wide - range volatile state [10]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon** - **Market Review**: The futures price of industrial silicon decreased, and that of polysilicon increased [11]. - **Industry Performance**: The industrial silicon spot market was average, and the photovoltaic industry spot market improved [12]. - **Viewpoint**: In the short term, the price of industrial silicon is likely to rise, and in the medium - long term, it is recommended to pay attention to the supply side [12]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper** - **Market Review**: The copper price continued to adjust, and the basis decreased [14]. - **Industry Information**: The exchange has adjusted the trading margin and price limit, and the inventory has changed [15]. - **Viewpoint**: The exchange has strengthened supervision, and the short - term price is under pressure [16]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain** - **Market Review**: The prices of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy changed [17]. - **Core Views**: Aluminum may fluctuate and correct in the short term but has upward space in the medium - long term; alumina is in an oversupply situation and is expected to be weak; cast aluminum alloy has strong follow - up to aluminum [18]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel** - **Market Review**: The prices of nickel and stainless steel decreased [18]. - **Industry Performance**: The spot market price and inventory of nickel and stainless steel changed [19]. - **Market Analysis**: It is expected to be volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to the quota issuance rhythm [19]. Oils and Feeds - **Oilseeds** - **Market Review**: The price of rapeseed meal decreased, and the funds in the meal market continued to decline [21]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The supply of imported soybeans may be in short supply in the first quarter, and the supply of rapeseed meal may increase if the trade relationship improves [22]. - **Outlook**: The external market of US soybeans is weak, the domestic soybean meal is affected by the reserve release, and the rapeseed meal may return to international pricing [23]. - **Oils** - **Market Review**: The prices of US soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil rebounded [23]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The export of palm oil increased, and the policies of the US and Indonesia affected the market [24]. - **Viewpoint**: They are easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term [23]. Energy and Oil and Gas - **Fuel Oil** - **Market Review**: The prices of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil changed [26]. - **Industry Performance**: The supply and demand of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil have different characteristics, and the inventory has changed [26]. - **Core Logic**: The high - sulfur market is still weak, and the low - sulfur cracking is sluggish [26][27]. - **Asphalt** - **Spot Situation**: The asphalt price was stable, and the supply and demand in different regions were different [28]. - **Fundamental Situation**: The supply and demand and inventory of asphalt have changed, and the price is affected by geopolitical factors [29]. - **Viewpoint**: It will continue to fluctuate in the short term, and attention can be paid to positive spreads, 03 basis, and cracking long - matching opportunities [29]. Precious Metals - **Platinum and Palladium** - **Market Review**: The prices of platinum and palladium rose [31]. - **Trading Logic**: Geopolitical and tariff issues have injected short - term safe - haven premiums [31]. - **Viewpoint**: The bull market foundation is still there, but attention should be paid to the opening jump phenomenon [33]. - **Gold and Silver** - **Market Review**: Gold rose, and silver fluctuated [34]. - **Trading Logic**: The geopolitical situation has increased the safe - haven demand for gold, and silver is affected by industrial demand and other factors [34]. - **Viewpoint**: Gold is strong, and silver is volatile. The overall trend of precious metals is easy to rise, but attention should be paid to the risk of silver's decline [34]. Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper** - **Market Review**: The futures prices of pulp and offset paper fluctuated [37]. - **Spot Market**: The price of pulp was stable, and the port inventory increased [37][38]. - **Viewpoint**: The pulp market is relatively bearish, and the offset paper is expected to be neutral. It is recommended to wait and see [39][40]. - **LPG** - **Market Dynamics**: The LPG price decreased, and the spread changed [40]. - **Spot Feedback**: The spot price decreased, and the supply and demand and inventory have changed [41]. - **Viewpoint**: The supply - demand relationship has weakened, and attention should be paid to geopolitical changes and domestic device maintenance [41]. - **PTA - PX** - **Fundamental Situation**: The supply and demand of PX and PTA have changed, and the profit has decreased [41]. - **Viewpoint**: The short - term is affected by unexpected maintenance rumors, and it is recommended to buy on dips in the long term [41]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips** - **Inventory**: The inventory of MEG in East China ports has increased [43]. - **Fundamental Situation**: The supply and demand of MEG and polyester have changed, and the profit has been repaired [43]. - **Viewpoint**: The demand side is under pressure, and the over - supply expectation suppresses the valuation [44]. - **Methanol** - **Market Dynamics**: The methanol price changed [45]. - **Spot Feedback**: The basis and inventory of methanol have changed [45]. - **Viewpoint**: The geopolitical logic continues, but the 05 contract's fundamentals have weakened marginally, and it is recommended to wait and see [45]. - **PP** - **Market Dynamics**: The PP price decreased [45]. - **Spot Feedback**: The spot price of PP is different in different regions, and the supply and demand and inventory have changed [46]. - **Viewpoint**: It is necessary to pay attention to the PDH device dynamics, and the short - term supply - demand pattern is expected to be better than that of PE [48]. - **PE** - **Market Dynamics**: The PE price decreased [49]. - **Spot Feedback**: The spot price of PE decreased, and the supply and demand and inventory have changed [49]. - **Viewpoint**: It is turning to a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand and is expected to be weak in the short term [49]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene** - **Market Review**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene changed [49]. - **Spot Feedback**: The spot prices of pure benzene and styrene decreased, and the basis increased [50]. - **Viewpoint**: The supply side has new changes, and the styrene price rose at night [49]. - **Rubber** - **Market Trends**: The rubber price stabilized slightly [52]. - **Related Information**: The LPR remained unchanged, and domestic policies were favorable [52]. - **Core Views**: The rubber price is expected to fluctuate in a wide range and may stabilize in the short term, but external risks should be noted [72]. - **Glass and Soda Ash** - **Soda Ash**: The price decreased, and the inventory decreased [55]. The supply is expected to be high, and the price is restricted by inventory [55]. - **Glass**: The price decreased, and the inventory decreased. The supply and demand are expected to be weak, and attention should be paid to the supply change [56]. - **Propylene** - **Market Dynamics**: The propylene price decreased [56]. - **Spot Feedback**: The spot price of propylene is different in different regions, and the supply and demand have changed [56]. - **Viewpoint**: The supply - demand relationship has weakened, and attention should be paid to geopolitical and device changes [57]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil** - **Market Review**: They fluctuated and fell, and were relatively resistant to decline compared to furnace materials [58]. - **Core Logic**: The production growth of finished products has slowed

Group 1: Overall Investment Outlook - The report maintains a cautiously optimistic view on commodities but expects the upward pace to slow and volatility to increase. In the long - term, copper and aluminum in the non - ferrous sector may have potential for supplementary growth, while the black sector's short - term trading value depends on capital sentiment. Crude oil is in a downward trend, and lithium carbonate has significant risks. Precious metals are more suitable for allocation through ETFs [1]. Group 2: Financial Futures Macro - The domestic "moderately loose" monetary policy and "integrated effect" regulatory approach provide a warm liquidity expectation. Internationally, the US Treasury Secretary's call for the Fed to cut interest rates signals potential risks. The US employment report in December has hidden problems, and the market is divided on the Fed's policy direction [1]. RMB Exchange Rate - After the release of the US initial jobless claims data, the US dollar index rose, and the RMB exchange rate showed a certain trend. Short - term export enterprises are advised to lock in forward exchange settlement at around 7.02, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling foreign exchange purchase strategy at the 6.96 level [1][5]. Stock Index - The previous sharp rise driven by capital has weakened, and the large - cap and small - cap stock indices showed a differentiated trend. Short - term stock indices may face adjustment, but if trading enthusiasm remains and policy benefits are expected, they may strengthen after a phased consolidation [5]. Treasury Bonds - The short - term bond market may continue to recover if the A - share market continues to fluctuate, but the upside space is limited. Mid - term long positions can be held, and short - term long positions can be gradually closed for profit [6]. Container Shipping (European Line) - The spot market shows signs of weakness, and the futures price is expected to be in a weakening and volatile pattern in the short term [10]. Group 3: Commodities New Energy Lithium Carbonate - The spot market of the lithium battery industry chain performs well, but the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology warns of irrational competition. Investors are advised to focus on structural long - term opportunities after corrections [12][13]. Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - The regulatory policy will make the polysilicon futures price return to the fundamental supply - demand and marginal cost logic. The polysilicon market is in a supply - demand weak situation, and the industrial silicon price is expected to weaken [13][15]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - The US interest rate cut expectation will disrupt market sentiment. After a sharp decline, the copper price will repair. It is recommended to hold long positions in the 90,000 - 100,000 range [16][18]. Aluminum Industry Chain - Aluminum is expected to be volatile and bullish in the long - term, with short - term correction pressure. Alumina is expected to be weak in the medium - term, and casting aluminum alloy is recommended to be bullish. It can be considered to go long on aluminum alloy and short on aluminum when the price difference is large [18][20]. Zinc - Zinc is in a continuous adjustment state, with short - term high - level volatility expected [20][21]. Nickel - Stainless Steel - Nickel and stainless steel prices have significantly corrected. The nickel price is at a high valuation, and the risk of Indonesia's quota release needs to be noted [21][22]. Tin - Tin has a technical correction. It is expected to maintain high - level volatility in the short term, and it is recommended to go long on corrections [24]. Lead - Lead has fallen back to the shock range. It is expected to be volatile in the future [25][26]. Oilseeds and Fats Oilseeds - Oilseeds are in a bottom - shock state. The supply pressure from Brazil next year will suppress the rebound of the main contract, but the short - term supply gap may cause a phased rebound in the near - month contract [27][28]. Fats - The palm oil market sentiment has warmed up, and short - term fats are expected to have a wide - range shock. Attention should be paid to the MPOB data and the visit of the Canadian Prime Minister [28][29]. Energy and Oil & Gas Asphalt - The conflict between the US and Venezuela may lead to a short - term supply disruption of heavy crude oil, and the asphalt cracking spread may be strong in the short term [30][31]. Precious Metals Platinum & Palladium - Platinum and palladium are expected to be volatile and bullish in the long - term. In the short term, attention should be paid to the index adjustment and non - farm data, and the risk of correction should be vigilant [32][33]. Gold & Silver - Precious metals are in a pattern of being easy to rise and difficult to fall. They are in a high - level shock in the short term, and the long - term trend is bullish. Corrections can be regarded as opportunities to add long positions [35][37]. Chemicals Pulp - Offset Paper - The pulp spot price has generally fallen, and the market is neutral to bearish. It is recommended to wait and see or take short - term short positions [38][39]. LPG - Geopolitical factors provide support. The domestic supply is tight, and attention should be paid to the PDH maintenance situation [40][41]. PTA - PX - PTA shows high self - discipline, and the PX - TA structural contradiction has been significantly alleviated. PX is expected to be in a tight supply - demand situation in the first half of 2026, and it is recommended to go long on corrections [42][44]. MEG - Bottle Chips - The demand negative feedback of ethylene glycol is intensifying. The polyester load is expected to decline seasonally, and the inventory pressure is high [45][46]. Methanol - Methanol is likely to start an upward - shock phase. Attention should be paid to the inventory change and the restart of the MTO device [48][49]. PP - The short - term fundamentals of PP have improved, but the seasonal inventory accumulation pressure during the Spring Festival may limit the upside space [49][50]. PE - PE is expected to show a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the upside space is limited. Attention should be paid to the macro situation and inventory pressure [51][52]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene is in a situation of weak domestic and strong overseas. Styrene has short - term positive news, but it is not recommended to chase high in the off - season [52][53]. Soda Ash - Soda ash has a high - level supply expectation in the long - term, and the price is restricted by the high inventory [54][55]. Glass - Before the Spring Festival, some glass production lines may be cold - repaired. The current high - level inventory needs to be digested [56]. Caustic Soda - Caustic soda is in a weak - reality state, with a wide - range shock expected and weak fundamental driving force [57]. Propylene - Propylene may have an upward price expectation due to cost factors, but attention should be paid to the upside risk before the fundamentals improve [58][59]. Black Metals Rebar & Hot Rolled Coil - The steel price is expected to be in a shock trend, with the rebar 2605 contract price range at 2900 - 3300 and the hot - rolled coil 2605 contract at 3000 - 3400 [59]. Iron Ore - The iron ore fundamentals are neutral. Attention should be paid to the inventory release policy risk, and long positions are advised to be reduced on high [60][61]. Coking Coal & Coke - The coal - coke market may turn into a small - range shock if the macro sentiment cools down [62][63]. Ferrosilicon & Silicomanganese - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are in a shock - bullish trend. The increase in production and inventory may suppress the upward rhythm, but the downside space is limited [63][64]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - The pig price is expected to remain in a low - level narrow - range shock pattern without significant improvement in the supply - demand structure [65]. Cotton - The cotton market is affected by the expectation of tight supply - demand and potential policy changes. It is recommended to go long on corrections [66]. Sugar - The sugar price is in a shock and pressured state, and attention should be paid to the movement of raw sugar [66][67]. Eggs - Egg prices are expected to be shock - bullish before the Spring Festival, but the risk of price correction after the festival should be vigilant [68][69]. Apples - The apple market has a problem of shortage of delivery products. Attention should be paid to the pre - Spring Festival stocking situation [69][70]. Jujubes - Jujube prices are expected to be in a low - level shock in the short term and pressured in the long - term [71][73]. Logs - Logs are recommended to adopt an interval trading strategy, with a reference interval of 760 - 790 [74][75].

Core Viewpoint - Xi'an Economic Development Zone aims to accelerate the establishment of a trillion-level energy oil and gas industry cluster through a structured approach involving "one chain, one plan, one measure, one list, and one map" [1] Group 1: Industry Development - Xi'an Economic Development Zone is the main base for the energy oil and gas industry in Xi'an, leveraging the Longqing Oilfield, the largest oil and gas field in the country [1] - The energy oil and gas industry in the zone is expected to achieve an industrial output value of 50.65 billion yuan in 2024 [1] - The zone hosts over 500 oil service supporting enterprises, indicating a well-established and sizable industry chain [1] Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - The zone will focus on promoting the integration of technological and industrial innovation, positioning itself as a source of technological innovation, a core industrial hub, a service center for enterprises, and a driver of industrial growth [1] - Plans include the establishment of an industrial innovation center to integrate leading enterprises and research resources from universities, targeting technological bottlenecks in oil and gas fields and the integration of new energy [1] - The development of a headquarters cluster for energy oil and gas enterprises and a high-end equipment manufacturing project area is also planned, characterized by a "headquarters economy + equipment manufacturing" model [1] Group 3: Support for SMEs - The zone will set up public service platforms for inspection, testing, concept validation, and pilot testing to help small and medium-sized enterprises reduce R&D costs [1] - There is a focus on cultivating the oil and gas equipment manufacturing industry to create new billion-level growth points during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1]

Group 1 - The core industrial value added in Xi'an increased by 11% year-on-year from January to July, outperforming the national and provincial averages by 4.7 and 2.1 percentage points respectively, ranking second among 15 sub-provincial cities [1] - Key industrial chains, including large aircraft, photovoltaic, passenger vehicles, and smart connected vehicles, are driving industrial growth, with total output value of key industrial chains growing by 13.8% and accounting for 86.2% of the city's total industrial output [1] - The photovoltaic and passenger vehicle industries showed significant growth rates of 65.2% and 33.1% respectively [1] Group 2 - Xi'an Yanliang National Aviation High-tech Industry Base has made notable progress in the large aircraft industry chain, establishing a new regional cooperation model with COMAC and assisting 21 enterprises to enter the supply chain [2] - The aviation industry in Yanliang is projected to exceed 40 billion yuan in total output value by 2024, aiming to become a core area for the national large aircraft industry [2] - Xi'an Economic Development Zone achieved an industrial output value of 50.65 billion yuan in the energy oil and gas industry, marking a 29% year-on-year increase, and is developing an energy oil and gas industrial park [2] Group 3 - The Xi'an Industrial and Information Technology Bureau is promoting small and medium-sized enterprises' integration into large enterprises' industrial chains through a "three lists" mechanism, having collected over 4,000 resource demands [3] - Future plans include accelerating the implementation of proposals, innovation breakthroughs, project transformations, and spatial expansions [3]